Acoustic field predictions, whether analytical or computational, rely on knowledge of the environmental, boundary, and initial conditions. When knowledge of these conditions is uncertain, acoustic field predictions will also be uncertain, even if the techniques for field prediction are perfect. Quantifying acoustic field uncertainty is important for applications that require accurate field amplitude and phase predictions, like matched-field techniques for sonar, nondestructive evaluation, bio-medical ultrasound, and atmospheric remote sensing. Drawing on prior turbulence research, this paper describes how an evolution equation for the probability density function (PDF) of the predicted acoustic field can be derived and used to quantify predicted-acoustic-field uncertainties arising from uncertain environmental, boundary, or initial conditions. Example calculations are presented in one and two spatial dimensions for the one-point PDF for the real and imaginary parts of a harmonic field, and show that predicted field uncertainty increases with increasing range and frequency. In particular, at 500Hz in an ideal 100m deep underwater sound channel with a 1m root-mean-square depth uncertainty, the PDF results presented here indicate that at a range of 5km, all phases and a 10dB range of amplitudes will have non-negligible probability. Evolution equations for the two-point PDF are also derived.
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