Precipitation Reconstruction Research Articles

Early Paleogene precipitation patterns over East Asia: Was there a monsoon after all?

Early Paleogene latitudinal precipitation gradients and patterns along the Pacific coast of Eurasia are studied in time and space using the Coexistence Approach, for the first time applied on an extensive regional palaeobotanical record. The palaeobotanical data used in this reconstruction are compiled from literature resources on 110 reasonably well-dated floras, including terrestrial deposits of 73 sites located in the Far East of Russia, Eastern Siberia, China, and Japan, and covering the early Palaeocene to early Eocene. Our reconstructions of precipitation for the Pacific side of Eurasia in the early Paleogene demonstrate a clear division (especially pronounced in the early Eocene) into two zones at ca. 50° N palaeolatitude on all precipitation parameters. Our results reveal very weak latitudinal precipitation gradients during the early and late Palaeocene. In the early Eocene, the gradient became more clearly pronounced, and a larger “arid” zone can be distinguished in the mid-latitudes. Our data suggest that in the early Paleogene, the global atmospheric circulation consisted of two well-defined cells, Hadley and Ferrell, while the polar cell was either absent or located over the Arctic Ocean and was very weak. Based on our reconstructions, the records could not be interpreted in terms of a monsoonal type of climate. The regional distribution of hygrophilous and xerophilous taxa in our early Eocene record largely coincides with the reconstructed precipitation pattern and generally corresponds to the distribution of coals and/or oil shales and red beds and/or evaporites, respectively.

Quantified mass loss of the Laohugou ice core and its precipitation signal during 1961–2005 at high elevation in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Ice records provide a qualitative rather than a quantitative indication of the trend of climate change. Using the bulk aerodynamic method and degree day model, this study quantified ice mass loss attributable to sublimation/evaporation (S/E) and meltwater on the basis of integrated observations (1960–2006) of glacier-related and atmospheric variables in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. During 1961–2005, the average annual mass loss in the ice core was 95.33 ± 20.56 mm w.e. (minimum: 78.97 mm w.e. in 1967, maximum: 146.67 mm w.e. in 2001), while the average ratio of the revised annual ice accumulation was 21.2 ± 7.7% (minimum: 11.0% in 1992, maximum 44.8% in 2000). A quantitative formula expressing the relationship between S/E and air temperature at the monthly scale was established, which could be extended to estimation of S/E changes of other glaciers in other regions. The elevation effect on alpine precipitation determined using revised ice accumulation and instrumental data was found remarkable. This work established a method for quantitative assessment of the temporal variation in ice core mass loss, and advanced the reconstruction of long-term precipitation at high elevations. Importantly, the formula established for reconstruction of S/E from temperature time series data could be used in other regions.

Precipitation Variations in China’s Altay Mountains Detected from Tree Rings Dating Back to AD 1615

As the primary mountain range in Central Asia, the Altay Mountains receive water vapor carried by westerly circulation, resulting in relatively abundant local precipitation and lush pastures in all seasons. Consequently, it has become one of the important transportation routes between Asia and Europe. The exploration of long-term variations in precipitation is meaningful for understanding the ebb and flow of the Asia–Europe steppe trade routes. However, previous dendroclimatological studies of the Altay Mountains focused more on temperature changes than precipitations variations. We carried out a 404-year precipitation reconstruction based on the tree rings of Siberian larch growing on the south slopes of the Altay Mountains, which could explain 45.9% of the variance observed in the February–October precipitation. Our reconstruction demonstrated some severe drought events which could be found in the historical documents, such as the drought in the late Ming Dynasty (1640s) and the Ding-Wu Disaster (1870s). The spatial correlation analysis, cross-wavelet spectrum and wavelet coherency analysis indicated that the precipitation variations in the study area may be related to the ENSO and NAO. This study presents a robust precipitation reconstruction of the southern Altay Mountains, serving as a reference for future research on large-scale climatic forces acting on Altay precipitation.

Pine Maximum Latewood Density in Semi‐Arid Northern China Records Hydroclimate Rather Than Temperature

AbstractLong records of tree‐ring maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements in conifers have been successfully employed to reconstruct summer temperature changes globally. Yet, the potential of MXD as a proxy in semi‐arid, low‐latitude regions for reconstructing either temperature or hydroclimate variability remains largely unexplored. Here, we developed a MXD data set of Chinese pine from semi‐arid northern China, and investigated its sensitivity to different climate variables. We found that the annual self‐calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index from previous August to current July displays the strongest influence on the MXD variation. The entire MXD chronology (covering 1736–2020) is highly consistent with nearby tree‐ring‐based annual precipitation and drought reconstructions at decadal timescales, confirming a temporally stable hydroclimate signal in our MXD record. In particular, the rapid wetting trend during the 2010–2020 period is well captured by the MXD data. This novel study has wide implications for future use of tree‐ring density data to reconstruct past climate changes globally.

Himalayan fir reveals moist phase during Little Ice Age in the Kashmir region of the western Himalayas

The Kashmir region in the western Himalayas is located in a transition zone between areas dominated by the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Currently being primarily influenced by westerly disturbances (WDs), the area is important to decipher teleconnections between these two important circulation systems for the assessment of past climate variability. We evaluated climate-growth relationships of Abies pindrow (Royle ex D. Don) and reconstructed April to June (AMJ) self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) for the south Kashmir region during the period 1643–2016 CE. Our reconstructed scPDSI revealed a long wet phase during 1650–1816 CE, indicating the impact of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over the region, followed by prominent drier post-LIA episodes. The mid 18th century (1730–1760 CE) was the wettest period in the past four centuries, whereas the period 1817 to 1865 CE marked the driest phase. These phases are consistent with other precipitation reconstructions from the WD-dominated western and Trans-Himalayan regions, but inconsistant with summer precipitation reconstructions from the SASM-dominated Himalayan regions. A significant positive correlation between our scPDSI reconstruction and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) for the wet phase of the LIA suggests that the NAO remained dominant in modulating the winter and spring precipitation at the study region. During the 19th and 20th centuries, scPDSI was either weakly or negatively correlated with the NAO index, indicating the influence of other atmospheric circulation systems in driving the spring/summer precipitation in the study area. This study, augmented with other moisture records, contributes to analyze the temporal and spatial extent of moisture variability in a regional perspective.

Tree-rings stable isotope (δ18O and δ2H) based 368 years long term precipitation reconstruction of South Eastern Kashmir Himalaya

The hydroclimatic variability in Kashmir Himalaya is influenced by the western disturbances and the Indian Summer Monsoon. To investigate long-term hydroclimatic variability, 368 years tree-ring oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios (δ18O and δ2H) extending from 1648 to 2015 CE were analysed. These isotopic ratios are calculated using five core samples of Himalayan silver fir (Abies pindrow) collected from the south-eastern region of Kashmir valley. The relationship between the long and short periodicity components of δ18O and δ2H suggested that physiological processes had a minimum effect on the tree-ring stable isotopes in Kashmir Himalaya. The δ18O chronology was developed based on the average of five-individual tree-ring δ18O time series covering the time span of 1648–2015 CE. The climate response analysis revealed the strongest and most significant negative correlation between tree ring δ18O and precipitation amount from the previous year's December to current year's August (D2Apre). The reconstructed D2Apre (D2Arec) explains precipitation variability from 1671 to 2015 CE and is supported by historical and other proxy-based hydroclimatic records. The reconstruction has two distinguishing features: first, it is characterized by stable wet conditions during the last phase of Little Ice Age (LIA) i.e., from 1682 to 1841 CE; and second, the southeast Kashmir Himalaya had experienced drier conditions as compared to recent and historical period with intense pluvial events since 1850. The present reconstruction shows, there have been more extreme dry events than extreme wet events since 1921. A tele-connection is observed between D2Arec and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the Westerly region.

Global and Zonal‐Mean Hydrological Response to Early Eocene Warmth

AbstractEarth's hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in response to global warming, with a “wet‐gets‐wetter, dry‐gets‐drier” response anticipated over the ocean. Subtropical regions (∼15°–30°N/S) are predicted to become drier, yet proxy evidence from past warm climates suggests these regions may be characterized by wetter conditions. Here we use an integrated data‐modeling approach to reconstruct global and zonal‐mean rainfall patterns during the early Eocene (∼56–48 million years ago). The Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP) model ensemble indicates that the mid‐ (30°–60°N/S) and high‐latitudes (>60°N/S) are characterized by a thermodynamically dominated hydrological response to warming and overall wetter conditions. The tropical band (0°–15°N/S) is also characterized by wetter conditions, with several DeepMIP models simulating narrowing of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone. However, the latter is not evident from the proxy data. The subtropics are characterized by negative precipitation‐evaporation anomalies (i.e., drier conditions) in the DeepMIP models, but there is surprisingly large inter‐model variability in mean annual precipitation (MAP). Intriguingly, we find that models with weaker meridional temperature gradients (e.g., CESM, GFDL) are characterized by a reduction in subtropical moisture divergence, leading to an increase in MAP. These model simulations agree more closely with our new proxy‐derived precipitation reconstructions and other key climate metrics and imply that the early Eocene was characterized by reduced subtropical moisture divergence. If the meridional temperature gradient was even weaker than suggested by those DeepMIP models, circulation‐induced changes may have outcompeted thermodynamic changes, leading to wetter subtropics. This highlights the importance of accurately reconstructing zonal temperature gradients when reconstructing past rainfall patterns.

Modulation of East Asian monsoon strength by ENSO during the warm periods of the late Holocene: Evidence from Porites corals in the northern South China Sea

As a gauge for ocean precipitation conditions, sea surface salinity (SSS) is suspected to be an excellent indicator for variations in the global hydrological cycle. The SSS conditions in the South China Sea (SCS) are closely related to precipitation changes of the East Asian monsoon. However, the characteristics and driving mechanisms of the meridional pattern of East Asian monsoon rainfall during the warm periods of the late Holocene are not well understood because of a lack of high-resolution proxies from the SCS. Here, we present three precise chronologies of monthly stable coral skeleton oxygen isotopes (δ18O) and pair them with established composite strontium/calcium (Sr/Ca) records from the Xisha Islands to obtain a continuous reconstruction of the residual δ18O (Δδ18O, regarded as seawater δ18O) during 1980–2007 CE (Common Era), 1149–1205 CE, and 2070–2011 a BP (years before 1950 CE). The results confirm that coral Δδ18O is a good tracer for reconstructing SSS and precipitation changes in the northern SCS on seasonal and interannual timescales, with higher Δδ18O values implying more saline conditions and less precipitation. The mean value of fossil coral Δδ18O for 1149–1205 CE was higher than that of modern coral, suggesting the existence of salty surface waters and notable dry climate episodes in the northern SCS during the late Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). In contrast, the average coral Δδ18O for 2070–2011 a BP was significantly lighter by about 0.404‰ compared to that of recent decades, indicating that less saline and more humid conditions occurred in the northern SCS during the early Roman Warm Period (RWP). Synthesizing our coral records with other published precipitation reconstructions from eastern China suggested a meridional dipole spatial pattern of moisture variation over East Asia during the historical warm periods of the Holocene. During the MCA, drier conditions generally prevailed in the region south of the Yangtze River, and more humid conditions in the north. This may be closely related to the contemporaneous strong El Niño activity occurring at this time, which probably enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and caused a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), possibly inducing increased water vapor transport from the SCS to North China. During the RWP, the relatively weak El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability may weaken the intensity of the EASM and shift the ITCZ southward, possibly resulting in a spatial pattern of “wet south and dry north” in East Asia.

Quantitative estimates of Holocene precipitation from aeolian sand-palaeosol sequences across the Ordos Plateau, northern China, based on surface soil geochemistry

Quantitative precipitation reconstructions are important for studies of past Earth surface processes and for predicting future trends, especially in the semi-arid region of northern China, where the dune fields landscape is dominated by shifts of the Asian summer monsoonal boundary. However, the relationships between desert deposits and climatic factors are controversial and it remains unclear how these relationships can be used for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstruction. We investigated the relationship between the degree of chemical weathering of surface soil, quantified using the Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA) and modern climatic variables, along transects across the Ordos Plateau. The relationship was then used to obtain quantitative estimates of Holocene mean annual precipitation (MAP) from aeolian sand-palaeosol sequences in this region. The results reveal that MAP is the dominant climatic variable controlling the chemical weathering of surface soil, accounting for ∼ 69–91% of the total explained variance. This robust relationship enabled us to establish a regional CIA-based transfer function to reconstruct the MAP. This relationship was confirmed by a study of Holocene climate change and chemical weathering of aeolian sequences across the Ordos Plateau, which indicated that paleo-precipitation explained ∼ 76–88% of the total explained variance. The reconstruction demonstrates that the MAP was respectively ∼ 60–103 mm and ∼ 21–63 mm lower in the early and late Holocene than the modern MAP, while it was ∼ 34–77 mm (∼20–30%) higher in the middle Holocene than the modern MAP. Our results also demonstrate the latitudinal zonality of MAP evolution across the Ordos Plateau during the mid-Holocene. Overall, our findings provide new insights into the chemical weathering of surface soils and the response of Holocene aeolian deposits to climate change, and they confirm the utility of a geochemical proxy for quantitative environmental reconstruction in the semi-arid desert region of northern China.

Terrestrial vegetation and lake aquatic community diversity under climate change during the mid–late Holocene in the Altai Mountains

Using pollen analysis and metabarcoding of plant sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNa), we infer the floristic diversity in the vicinity of Lake Balyktukel, Ulagan Plateau, the Altai Mountains, over the last 7 kyr. The SedaDNA method identified 200% more taxa than found by morphological pollen analysis. In particular, it revealed that the dominant tree for the last 7 kyr was Larix rather than Pinus, which was less frequent in the vicinity of Lake Balyktukel. About 7 ka, larch forest mixed with dwarf birch was widespread on the Ulagan Plateau. The period between 5.3 and 3.4 kyr BP was characterized by the maximal spread of larch forest with an understorey cover of Vaccinium vitis-idaea. Pollen-based annual precipitation reconstruction indicates the most humid phase was between 6.95 and 4.3 ka, and generally coincides with maximal phytodiversity. The most bioproductive period of the lake was from 7 to 6 ka. After that, the trophicity of the lake decreased until 4.5 ka. The appearance of Hippuris vulgaris and increase in Ranunculus subgen. Batrachium at about 5.3–5 ka may indicate the extension of shallow-water ecotopes. Between 3.7 and 3.5 ka, the cyanobacterium Anabaena – an indicator of increased organic matter and algal blooms – was widespread. A planktic thermophilic cladoceran Bosmina longirostris appeared after 1.8 ka and colonized the lake, suggesting an increase in lake trophicity. The last 100 years have been characterized by dramatic changes in the cladoceran community reflecting significant warming of climate.

A 258-year-long data set of temperature and precipitation fields for Switzerland since 1763

Abstract. Climate reconstructions give insights in monthly and seasonal climate variability in the past few hundred years. However, for understanding past extreme weather events and for relating them to impacts, for example through crop yield simulations or hydrological modelling, reconstructions on a weather timescale are needed. Here, we present a data set of 258 years of daily temperature and precipitation fields for Switzerland from 1763 to 2020. The data set was reconstructed with the analogue resampling method, which resamples meteorological fields for a historical period based on the most similar day in a reference period. These fields are subsequently improved with data assimilation for temperature and bias correction for precipitation. Even for an early period prior to 1800 with scarce data availability, we found good validation results for the temperature reconstruction especially in the Swiss Plateau. For the precipitation reconstruction, skills are considerably lower, which can be related to the few precipitation measurements available and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation. By means of a case study of the wet and cold years from 1769 to 1772, which triggered widespread famine across Europe, we show that this data set allows more detailed analyses than hitherto possible.

The Flood Risk and Water Supply Implications of Seasonal Precipitation Reconstructions in Northern California

Subsets of annual and sub-annual tree-ring chronologies are used to reconstruct seasonal precipitation totals in northern California. The specific seasons selected for reconstruction are based on the strongest monthly precipitation signals recorded in the tree-ring data. Earlywood width of gray pine is best correlated with Oct-Dec precipitation at the onset of the wet season. Latewood width of ponderosa pine is correlated with Mar–Apr totals at the end of the wet season. These earlywood and latewood width chronologies are used to develop separate reconstructions of precipitation for the “autumn” (Oct–Dec) and “spring” (Mar–Apr) seasons. Total ring-width chronologies of blue oak are highly correlated with October–April precipitation totals and are used to reconstruct precipitation for the “wet season.” We then computed one additional skillful reconstruction by subtracting the reconstructed spring totals from the wet season precipitation estimates (i.e., “winter” [Oct–Feb]). We compare the winter and spring reconstructions because they are well calibrated and provide an interesting long-term perspective on the interaction of winter–spring precipitation amounts near March 1, when important reservoir management decisions are often made. Consecutive wet winter and very wet spring precipitation anomalies increased after 1950 in the instrumental and reconstructed time-series, often coinciding with the largest spring streamflow and flood events recorded on the American River at Folsom. Once the sub-annual tree-ring data can be improved, it may be possible to develop discrete reconstructions of early-, middle-, and late-season precipitation for the past 250 to 500 years, to help define natural variability and anthropogenic forcing of seasonal precipitation totals in California.

Precipitation Behavior of Magnetite Phase during Modified Nickel Slag Treated by Molten Oxidation

Nickel slag is a kind of solid waste with a high yield and low utilization rate. However, there is a large amount of Fe in nickel slag, which mainly exists in the form of fayalite. In this study, nickel slag is used as raw material. The addition of CaO can destroy the network structure of fayalite, and the iron-rich phase can be oxidized to magnetite under oxidation condition. It is beneficial to the recovery of iron resources. The effect of basicity on structural reconstruction of molten slag and precipitation of magnetite is investigated. The results show that when the basicity is 0.38–1.50, the degree of polymerization of silicate structure decreases with the increase of basicity. When the temperature is 1450–1500°C, viscosity of slag decreases first and then increases with the increase of basicity. The viscosity is the lowest with the basicity of 0.90, and the granular magnetite begins to precipitate during the non-equilibrium solidification at 1455°C. The growth rate of the magnetite is 1.20 µm/s at 0–10 s, which is significantly higher than the magnetite growth rate of 0.16 µm/s at 10–22 s, and the grain size of the magnetite remains unchanged after 22 s.

The mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean differed between the Medieval Warm Period and the Industrial Era

Changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation over the last few decades have been linked to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions; however, the sign, magnitude, and drivers of these variations during the Common Era are not yet well constrained. Here, we present an 1800-year reconstruction of the El Niño Southern Oscillation mean-state derived from precipitation reconstructions based on lake sediments in East Asia and examine the long-term changes in the mean state and variance of the tropical Pacific. We find that the Medieval Warm Period was characterized by La Niña-like states with low variance, whereas El Niño-like states prevailed during the Little Ice Age and the Current Warm Period with high variance. Temperature changes caused by effective radiative forcing were probably the drivers of this response during the pre-industrial period, whereas greenhouse gas forcing likely accounts for the variations in the tropical Pacific mean-state during the industrial period.

A 440-Year Reconstruction of Heavy Precipitation in California from Blue Oak Tree Rings

Abstract The variability of water year precipitation and selected blue oak tree-ring chronologies in California are both dominated by heavy precipitation delivered during just a few days each year. These heavy precipitation events can spell the difference between surplus or deficit water supply and elevated flood risk. Some blue oak chronologies are highly correlated with water year precipitation (r = 0.84) but are equally well correlated (r = 0.82) with heavy precipitation totals ≥25.4 mm (1 in., ≈95th percentile of daily totals, 1949–2004). The blue oak correlation with nonheavy daily totals is much weaker (<25.4 mm; r = 0.55). Consequently, some blue oak chronologies represent selective proxies for the temporal and spatial variability of heavy precipitation totals and are used to reconstruct the amount and number of days with heavy precipitation in northern California from 1582 to 2021. Instrumental and reconstructed heavy precipitation totals are strongly correlated with gridded atmospheric river–related precipitation over the western United States, especially in central California. Spectral analysis indicates that instrumental heavy precipitation totals may be dominated by high-frequency variability and the nonheavy totals by low-frequency variance. The reconstruction of heavy precipitation is coherent with instrumental heavy totals across the frequency domain and include concentrations of variance at ENSO and biennial frequencies. Return period analyses calculated using instrumental heavy precipitation totals are representative of the return periods in the blue oak reconstruction despite the large differences in series length. Decadal surges in the amount, frequency, and interannual volatility of heavy precipitation totals are reconstructed, likely reflecting episodes of elevated atmospheric river activity in the past. Significance Statement Tree-ring chronologies of blue oak are highly correlated with precipitation delivered to northern California during just the heaviest days of precipitation each year. The reconstruction of heavy precipitation indicates decadal episodes with a high frequency of extreme precipitation. These episodes of frequent heavy precipitation likely arose because of elevated atmospheric river activity and are relevant to the analysis of water supply and flood hazard in California.

Precipitation variability, vegetation turnover, and anthropogenic disturbance over the last millennium in the Atacama highlands of northern Chile (19°S)

The Late-Holocene history of hydroclimatic variability in the Atacama Desert offers insights into the effects of precipitation and humans on ecosystems in one of the most extremely arid regions of the world. However, understanding the effects of regional precipitation variability in relation to local ecological stressors remains to be fully resolved. Here, we present a pollen-based qualitative precipitation reconstruction derived from fossil rodent middens recovered from two sites near Laguna Roja (LRO; n = 25) and Isluga (ISL; n = 15) in the Atacama highlands (19°S) of northern Chile. At LRO, the fossil pollen record shows multi-centennial hydroclimatic anomalies during the last millennium, with wetter than present phases at 1155–1130, 865–670, and 215–80 cal yrs BP, and similar to present conditions between 1005 and 880 cal yrs BP. In contrast, the ISL record shows a wet phase during 1115–840 cal yrs BP, suggesting that meso-ecological processes were as important in vegetation turnover as regional hydroclimate anomalies. Wetter conditions derived from LRO partially overlap with the Medieval Climate Anomaly (865–670 cal yrs BP) and with the latest part of the Little Ice Age (215–80 cal yrs BP). Furthermore, no strong anthropogenic signal was identified possibly related to the remote location of the records. Palynological diversity analyses evidence increasing diversification of plant communities during wet events at both sites. In correlation to existing regional hydroclimatic records from the Western Andes, our precipitation reconstruction verifies that centennial-scale changes in the strength of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and partial influence of El Niño-like (ENSO) conditions drove vegetation turnover in the Atacama Desert during the last millennium.

Weakening of the Summer Monsoon Over the Past 150 Years Shown by a Tree‐Ring Record From Shandong, Eastern China, and the Potential Role of North Atlantic Climate

AbstractThe causes of the decreased intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) over the past 150 years are still not fully understood, although several studies have linked the monsoon weakening to the warming of tropical oceans. Here, we use pine tree‐rings to reconstruct the precipitation total for April–August from 1810 to 2018, in south‐central Shandong Province, in the EASM region. The reconstruction accounts for 41.8% of the instrumental precipitation variance during 1965–2018. The EASM precipitation reconstruction shows extreme pluvial conditions in 1832, 1833, 1886, and 1998, and extreme droughts in 1878, 1901, and 1910, which correspond precisely to extreme climatic events recorded in historical documents. The reconstructed precipitation reveals a drying trend since the 1870s, which matches well with the decreasing trend of the EASM inferred from stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) records and climate simulations. The trend of decreasing precipitation since the 1870s, indicated by our reconstruction, is significantly correlated with the spring sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic Ocean, which suggests that the EASM weakening was linked to North Atlantic SST variations during the past 150 years. This potential role of North Atlantic SST variability is supported by climate sensitivity simulations of the Community Earth System Model. North Atlantic SST variability induces two teleconnections of Rossby‐like wave propagation from the North Atlantic into East Asia, resulting in anomalous precipitation in this region.

Asian-Australian summer monsoons linkage to ENSO strengthened by global warming

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) used to affect the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) and Australian summer monsoon (AusSM) precipitation in different ways but global warming may have changed it. This study built robust annual ASM (AusSM) precipitation reconstructions during 1588–2013 (1588–1999) to examine the ENSO-monsoon relationship and how it has changed. During the period of 1588–1850 when natural climate variability was dominant, the ENSO-monsoon and inter-monsoon relationship was weak and non-stationary. Since 1850, however, both the inter-monsoon and ENSO-monsoon relationships saw an enhancement and this trend has been persistent to the present day, suggesting the influence of anthropogenic climate warming. Further analysis of climate model projections found that global warming can strengthen the ENSO-monsoon association that, subsequently, acts to synchronize the ASM and AusSM variations.

Species Sensitivity to Hydrologic Whiplash in The Tree-Ring Record of the High Sierra Nevada

The year-to-year variability of precipitation has significant consequences for water management and forest health. “Whiplash” describes an extreme mode of this variability in which hydroclimate switches abruptly between wet and dry conditions. In this study, a pool of total-ring-width indices from five conifer species (Abies magnifica, Juniperus grandis, Pinus ponderosa, Pinus jeffreyi, and Tsuga mertensiana) in the Sierra Nevada is used to develop reconstructions of water-year precipitation using stepwise linear regression on lagged chronologies, and the reconstructions are analyzed for their ability to track whiplash events. A nonparametric approach is introduced to statistically classify positive and negative events, and the success of matching observed events with the reconstructions is evaluated using a hypergeometric test. Results suggest that reconstructions can effectively track whiplash events, but that tracking ability differs among species and sites. Although negative (dry-to-wet) events (1921–1989) are generally tracked more consistently than positive events, Tsuga stands out for strong tracking of positive events. Tracking ability shows no clear relationship to variance explained by reconstructions, suggesting that efforts to extend whiplash records with tree-ring data should consider optimizing reconstruction models for the whiplash signal.

Increasing Drought Risks Over the Past Four Centuries Amidst Projected Flood Intensification in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan)—Evidence From Tree Rings

AbstractIncreased flood risks have been projected, but with large uncertainties, in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan). To place future changes in a long‐term perspective, we produce a 382‐year precipitation reconstruction for the basin using seven tree‐ring chronologies of old‐growth conifers from the Hindu Kush Mountains, a monsoon‐shadow area. The reconstruction proves robust over rigorous cross‐validations (R2 = 0.60, RE = 0.60, CE = 0.53). The full reconstruction (1637–2018) reveals a steady decline in the low end of the precipitation distribution, implying increasing drought risks. We show that droughts are getting more severe, shorter, and more frequent, interspersed with more frequent pluvials in the past century. Drought risks, compounded with projected flood intensification, pose significant threats for this transboundary river. Therefore, future water management needs to account for both flood and drought risks and be informed by long‐term hydroclimatic variability.