Poverty Outcomes Research Articles

Child Poverty Amongst Young Carers in the UK: Prevalence and Trends in the Wake of the Financial Crisis, Economic Downturn and Onset of Austerity

The article provides the first estimates of prevalence and trends in child poverty amongst young carers aged 5–19 in the UK using specialized income data from the Family Resources Survey / the Households Below Average Income Survey. Looking across four key indicators, we find that child poverty rates were higher amongst young carers than other children based on 3 years pooled data for 2013/14–2015/16. The differences in the prevalence of child poverty amongst young carers and other children are statistically significant in relation to two indicators (anchored low income before housing costs, and a combined measure of low income and material deprivation). Young carers also appear to have fared worse than other children in terms of trends in child poverty outcomes over the period that coincided with the financial crisis, economic downturn and onset of austerity. Amongst young carers, there was a statistically significant increase in relative low income after housing costs of nine percentage points (from 24 to 33%) between 2005/07 and 2013/15. This compares with a two percentage point decline amongst other children. Multivariate findings confirm that trends in child poverty outcomes amongst young carers were highly differentiated from those of other children and that the association between child poverty and young caring status strengthened over the period under observation. Multivariate analysis further suggests that the increases in child poverty rates amongst young carers were not driven by purely “compositional” factors relating to demographic characteristics of the households in which young carers live and that labour market factors are particularly important in explaining the trends that are observed. Overall, the findings from the study raise concerns that young carers were disproportionately impacted by the patterns of stagnating real income and declining income from employment that characterized the period following the financial crisis, economic downturn and onset of austerity, whilst underlining the importance of housing costs as a factor in child poverty amongst young carers, and raising important questions regarding the ongoing effectiveness of social protection for this group.

Assessing the global poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance

Abstract As a result of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), economies will experience an increase in mortality, reduced productivity for labor and the livestock sector, and increased health care costs. This paper assesses the potential global poverty impacts of AMR using a unique macro-micro framework. To estimate poverty effects of AMR, price, wage, and employment results from a dynamic, multi-country, multi-sector computable general equilibrium CGE model are used in a microsimulation model that integrates household surveys from 104 countries. The analysis in this paper advances other studies of AMR in two ways: (1) it links macro results to a microsimulation model to provide insight on poverty impacts for the world economy and countries of different income levels; and (2) it uses a global multi-sector model, rather than an aggregate global model, to generate macroeconomic results with structural details for capturing the economy-wide impact within countries and the spread across countries via trade flows. Relative to a world without AMR, the progression of antimicrobial resistance is expected to make it more difficult to eliminate extreme poverty, potentially adding 24.1 million people to become extremely poor, of whom 18.7 million live in low-income countries. The expected losses during 2015–50 may sum to $85 trillion in gross domestic product and $23 trillion in global exports (in present value). By 2050, the global gross domestic product could deviate negatively by 3.8 percent from the baseline (in the worst-case scenario considered). Because it is a global public bad, the optimal policy response will require global cooperation. The poverty outcomes induced by AMR in all country groups will deteriorate with short-sighted isolationist policies. Moreover, assistance from high-income countries to improve the economic resiliency of lower-income countries will also benefit the higher-income countries and world economy in general.

Analysis on poverty reduction effectiveness by medical relief for poverty-stricken rural population incurred by illness

Objective By measuring various medical relief standards and simulating the poverty reduction outcomes for compensation for self-paid expenses, to learn the outcomes of medical on poverty reduction in rural areas. Methods Using the detailed medical expenditure of those subject to medical relief in 2016 in Liandu district of Lishui city of Zhejiang province, we calculated their self-paid medical expenses and the proportion of medical relief. The data were analyzed by descriptive analysis. Results Thanks to the medical relief, the self-paid expenses of 458 people fell to under 22 000 yuan, i.e.the poverty line, and 30.25% of them overcame poverty. It was found that different medical relief schemes score different poverty reduction effects among various expense sections. Conclusions Rational choices of medical relief standards for such population call for reference of the distribution pattern of their specific self-paid medical expenses, a benchmark to identify those in need of assistance. Attempts are needed to explore partial assistance for self-paid medical expenses and introduce commercial insurance to make up for the assistance. It is recommended to select appropriate rescue means as required by the demand and supply of the rescue funds. Key words: Social security; Rural areas; Medical relief; Precide poverty alleviation; Outcomes

Abstract IA12: Poverty and pediatric leukemia outcomes

Abstract Novel efforts to identify and address residual drivers of morbidity and mortality in pediatric cancer are essential. Poverty, in addition to biology, is emerging as a target for improvement in childhood cancer outcomes. While population-based evidence has suggested that poverty negatively impacts overall survival (OS) in childhood leukemia, limited data have explored the relationship between poverty and disease outcomes in the standardized care setting of clinical trials. Furthermore, measures of poverty amenable to targeted intervention have not been previously described in the pediatric oncology setting. We examined overall survival (OS), event-free survival (EFS), and cumulative incidence and timing of relapse by community-level poverty for 575 children with newly diagnosed acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) treated on consecutive phase III multicenter consortium protocols between 2000-2010. Children were categorized as living in a high- or low-poverty area using aggregate U.S. Census data linked to zip code. Children from high-poverty areas experienced inferior OS as compared to those in low-poverty areas (85% vs. 92%, p=0.02), which remained marginally significant after adjustment for NCI risk criteria. Among children who relapsed, children from high-poverty areas were significantly more likely to experience early relapse (<36 months in complete remission; 92% vs 48%, p=0.008), which is more challenging to salvage. These data identified poverty-related disparities in childhood leukemia outcomes, suggesting a need for further investigation of poverty measures amenable to intervention. We subsequently sought to describe the prevalence of a concrete measure of poverty termed household material hardship (HMH)--defined as food, energy, and housing insecurity--in a cohort of newly diagnosed pediatric oncology families. HMH in primary care is associated with inferior health outcomes, remediable with targeted intervention, and associated with improved health outcomes when remediated. We conducted a single-site prospective cohort study of 99 families of newly diagnosed pediatric cancer families receiving chemotherapy. We found that 20% of families reported pre-existing HMH at the time of diagnosis, and 29% of families reported HMH following 6 months of chemotherapy despite existing psychosocial supports. These data suggest that a quantifiable and remediable measure of poverty is present in a significant proportion of children undergoing cancer therapy in the U.S. and represents a potential target for future intervention. Citation Format: Kira Bona. Poverty and pediatric leukemia outcomes [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Tenth AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2017 Sep 25-28; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2018;27(7 Suppl):Abstract nr IA12.

Impact of Crop Diversification on Rural Poverty in Nepal

AbstractCrop diversification into high‐value crops (HVCs) can be an important strategy to augment income, generate employment, and reduce poverty in developing countries. We study the impact of crop diversification (share of production value obtained from the HVCs) on household (HH) welfare measures in Nepal. We use three rounds of the nationally representative Nepal Living Standard Surveys: NLSS I (1994/95), NLSS II (2004/05), and NLSS III (2010/11). The dose–response function, propensity score matching, and instrumental variable techniques are used to estimate the impact of crop diversification. Results show the positive impact of HVCs on the monthly per capita consumption expenditure and poverty outcomes. Among HVCs growers, HHs growing vegetables have the better welfare outcomes. While establishing the relationship between degree of agricultural diversity and poverty measures, we find that the marginal farmers need to at least derive 35% of the share of revenue from HVCs to escape from poverty.

First Trimester Prenatal Care Initiation Among Hispanic Women Along the U.S.-Mexico Border

Background First trimester prenatal care (FTPNC) is associated with improved birth outcomes. U.S.-Mexico border Hispanic women have lower FTPNC than non-border or non-Hispanic women. This study aimed to identify (1) what demographic, knowledge and care-seeking factors influence FTPNC among Hispanic women in border counties served by five Healthy Start sites, and (2) what FTPNC barriers may be unique to this target population. Healthy Starts work to eliminate disparities in perinatal health in areas with high poverty and poor birth outcomes. Methods 403 Hispanic women of reproductive age in border communities of California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas were surveyed on knowledge and behaviors related to prenatal care (PNC) and basic demographic information. Chi square analyses and logistic regressions were used to identify important relationships. Results Chi square analyses revealed that primiparous women were significantly less likely to start FTPNC than multiparous women (χ2 = 6.8372, p = 0.0089). Women with accurate knowledge about FTPNC were more likely to obtain FTPNC (χ2 = 29.280, p < .001) and more likely to have seen a doctor within the past year (χ2 = 5.550, p = .018). Logistic regression confirmed that multiparity was associated with FTPNC and also that living in Texas was negatively associated with FTPNC (R2 = 0.066, F(9,340) = 2.662, p = .005). Among 27 women with non-FTPNC, barriers included late pregnancy recognition (n = 19) and no medical insurance (n = 5). Conclusions This study supports research that first time pregnancies have lower FTPNC, and demonstrated a strong association between delayed PNC and late pregnancy recognition. Strengthened investments in preconception planning could improve FTPNC in this population.

Give a fish or teach fishing? Partisan affiliation of U.S. governors and the poverty status of immigrants

This paper investigates how governors' partisan affiliation affects the poverty status of immigrants to the U.S. To this end, we compare the poverty outcomes of immigrants in states ruled by Democratic governors relative to the outcomes for those in states ruled by Republican governors. We employ a regression discontinuity design using the re-centered Democratic margin of victory as a running variable, to overcome the identification challenge posed by confounding factors. Consistent with the literature on partisan affiliation, we find that immigrants are more likely to get out of poverty in states with Democratic governors than states with Republican governors. Our results are submitted to a variety of robustness checks and sensitivity tests, to assess the validity of the identification strategy, and highlight conditional lame-duck effects. A formal mediation analysis reveals that the empirical results are mediated through better access to the labor market and possibly through higher wages and labor earnings for immigrants. Last but not least, we check for alternative hypotheses and potential detrimental effects for native populations.

Linking the Sectoral Employment Structure and Household Poverty in the United Kingdom

Structural changes in the labour markets of developed economies, and changes in their institutional characteristics, have led to growing unease about the nature of low-paid employment. Related concerns have been expressed about the persistence of low pay, the fragmentation of work and the growth of under-employment. While all these factors have potential implications for individuals’ earnings, less is known about the connection between labour market change, patterns of sectoral growth and decline, and household poverty outcomes. This article shows distinct patterns of poverty outcomes by sector of employment, after controlling for other factors. However, household characteristics, in particular the presence of a second earner, do strongly mitigate the poverty risk. Overall, the findings demonstrate that policymakers need to develop a coherent policy towards poverty that recognises the nature of jobs growth and the distribution of ‘good jobs’ across households.

Is Environmental Income Reporting Evasive in Household Surveys? Evidence From Rural Poor in Laos

Literature has consistently reiterated that the self-employed non-poor underreport their business income to tax authorities and in household surveys. In this work, we measure the extent to which poor households engaging in illegal environmental activities underreport income in Laos. We use a two year panel data and apply the Engel curve to detect and estimate the reporting gap. We further use a switching probit regression to identify the factors of income underreporting and its impact on income poverty outcomes. Results show that on an average, rural households who earn at least a quarter of their income from the environment underreport by over 50% in household surveys resulting in overestimation of income poverty. Moreover, we find that a perceived threat to food security drives rural poor to engage in illegal environmental extraction.

The Development of Vulnerability Functions Relating Household Poverty Outcomes to Crop Failures in Ethiopia with the Prospect of Developing a Probabilistic Catastrophe Risk Model

We analyse the potential to combine catastrophe (CAT) risk modelling with economic analysis of vulnerability to poverty using the example of drought hazard impacts on the welfare of rural households in Ethiopia. The aim is to determine the potential for applying a derived set of damage (vulnerability) functions based on realised shocks and household expenditure/consumption outcomes, onto a forward-looking view of drought risk. We outline the CAT risk modelling framework and the role of the vulnerability module. We present results of a regression model estimating ex post drought impacts on consumption for heterogeneous household types. We assess the generalisability of the derived functions to infer applicability to a CAT risk modelling framework. We stress test the model using statistical models of resampling to establish external validity: whether the relationships established in the data set can be used beyond the context in which they were derived. We conclude with caution that a full CAT risk model could be applied.

Cities, Towns, and Poverty: Migration Equilibrium and Income Distribution in a Todaro-Type Model with Multiple Destinations

Should public investment be targeted to big cities or to small towns, if the objective is to minimize national poverty? To answer this policy question we extend the basic Todaro-type model of rural-urban migration to the case of migration from rural areas to two potential destinations, secondary town and big city. We first derive conditions under which a poverty gradient from rural to town to city will exist as an equilibrium phenomenon. We then address the policy question and show how the answer depends on the migration response, where the poverty line lies relative to incomes in the three locations, and at times also the poverty index itself. In particular, we develop sufficient statistics for the policy decisions based on these income parameters and illustrate the empirical remit of the model with long running panel data from Kagera, Tanzania. Further, we show that the structure of the sufficient statistics is maintained in the case where the model is generalized to introduce heterogeneous workers and jobs. Overall, the findings confirm that, given migration responses, national poverty outcomes are not immune to whether urban employment generation takes place in the towns or the city.

What is the evidence for the contribution of forests to poverty alleviation? A systematic map protocol

BackgroundForests provide an essential resource that support the livelihoods of an estimated 20% of the global population. Forests are thought to serve in three primary roles to support livelihoods: subsistence, safety nets, and pathways to prosperity. While we have a working understanding of how poor people depend on forests in individual sites and countries, much of this evidence is dispersed and not easily accessible. Thus, while the importance of forest ecosystems and resources to contribute to poverty alleviation has been increasingly emphasized in international policies, conservation and development initiatives and investments—the strength of evidence to support how forests can affect poverty outcomes is still unclear. This study takes a systematic mapping approach to scope, identify and describe studies that measure the effect of forest-based activities on poverty outcomes at local and regional scales. This effort builds upon an existing systematic map on linkages between conservation and human well-being in order to make this process more efficient. We will conduct a refined and updated search strategy pertinent to forests-poverty linkages to glean additional evidence from studies outside the scope of the original map. Results of this study can be used for informing conservation and development policy and practices in global forest ecosystems and highlight evidence gaps where future primary studies and systematic reviews can add value.MethodsWe build upon the search strategy outlined in McKinnon et al. (Environ Evid 1–25, 2016) and expand our search to cover a total of 7 bibliographic databases, 15 organizational websites, 8 existing systematic reviews and maps, and evidence gap maps, and solicit key informants. All searches will be conducted in English and encompass all nations. Search results will be screened at title, abstract, and full text levels, recording both the number of excluded articles and reasons for exclusion. Full text assessment will be conducted on all included article and extracted data will be reported in a narrative review that will summarize trends in the evidence, report any knowledge gaps and gluts, and provide insight for policy, practice and future research. The data from this systematic map will be made available as well, through an open access, searchable data portal and visualization tool.

A practical review of energy saving technology for ageing populations

Fuel poverty is a critical issue for a globally ageing population. Longer heating/cooling requirements combine with declining incomes to create a problem in need of urgent attention. One solution is to deploy technology to help elderly users feel informed about their energy use, and empowered to take steps to make it more cost effective and efficient. This study subjects a broad cross section of energy monitoring and home automation products to a formal ergonomic analysis. A high level task analysis was used to guide a product walk through, and a toolkit approach was used thereafter to drive out further insights. The findings reveal a number of serious usability issues which prevent these products from successfully accessing an important target demographic and associated energy saving and fuel poverty outcomes. Design principles and examples are distilled from the research to enable practitioners to translate the underlying research into high quality design-engineering solutions.

Neighborhood-Level Poverty, Poverty-Associated Factors, and Severe Outcomes among Adults Hospitalized with Influenza—United States, 2012–2015

Neighborhood-Level Poverty, Poverty-Associated Factors, and Severe Outcomes among Adults Hospitalized with Influenza—United States, 2012–2015

Is Environmental Income Reporting Evasive in Household Surveys? Evidence from Rural Poor in Laos

Literature has consistently reiterated that the self-employed non-poor underreport their business income to tax authorities and in household surveys. In this work, we measure the extent to which poor households engaging in illegal environmental activities underreport income in Laos. We use a two year panel data and apply the Engel curve to detect and estimate the reporting gap. We further use a switching probit regression to identify the factors of income underreporting and its impact on income poverty outcomes. Results show that on an average, rural households who earn at least a quarter of their income from the environment underreport by over 50% in household surveys resulting in overestimation of income poverty. Moreover, we find that a perceived threat to food security drives rural poor to engage in illegal environmental extraction.

INFLUENCE OF THE CIVIC COMMUNITY RELIGIOUS ENVIRONMENT ON FAMILY POVERTY: A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS.

This study integrates research in the civic community tradition and structuralist and individualist perspectives on poverty to assess the relationship between religious-based civic community structures and family poverty in the United States. Using multilevel analyses of 2006-2008 American Community Survey, 2000 Census of Population and Housing, and 2000 Religious Congregations and Membership Survey data, results demonstrate that the presence of Mainline Protestant and Catholics adherents within communities - measured as the percentage of a community's population comprised of Mainline Protestant and Catholic adherents - is significantly and negatively associated with family poverty risks, net of other family and community factors. That is, in communities with a greater presence of Mainline Protestants and Catholics, there were also lower risks of families being in poverty. These findings suggest the importance of the ecology of religion within communities in understanding poverty outcomes for families.

Impact of trade liberalisation on labour market and poverty in Sri Lanka. An integrated macro-micro modelling approach

This paper revisits the long standing controversy of trade and poverty linkage using a macro-micro modelling approach based on general equilibrium and microsimulation analytical frameworks. Sri Lanka, the first country in South Asia which undertook trade reforms more than three decades ago, is taken as a case in point in this study. The paper analyses the effects of trade liberalisation on income distribution and poverty in the urban, rural and estate sectors in Sri Lanka using the first ever microsimulation model built for the country in combination with a multi-household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results reveal that without any fiscal policy adjustments a 100% tariff cut would lead to an increase in economic growth and a reduction in poverty incidence both in the short run as well as in the long run. However, when the tariff cut combined with the fiscal policy adjustments to maintain the budget neutrality, poverty outcomes showed mixed results. In contrast, results show that trade liberalisation increases the income inequality in Sri Lanka.

Implications of heterogeneous impacts of protected areas on deforestation and poverty.

Protected areas are a popular policy instrument in the global fight against loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the effectiveness of protected areas in preventing deforestation, and their impacts on poverty, are not well understood. Recent studies have found that Bolivia's protected-area system, on average, reduced deforestation and poverty. We implement several non-parametric and semi-parametric econometric estimators to characterize the heterogeneity in Bolivia's protected-area impacts on joint deforestation and poverty outcomes across a number of socioeconomic and biophysical moderators. Like previous studies from Costa Rica and Thailand, we find that Bolivia's protected areas are not associated with poverty traps. Our results also indicate that protection did not have a differential impact on indigenous populations. However, results from new multidimensional non-parametric estimators provide evidence that the biophysical characteristics associated with the greatest avoided deforestation are the characteristics associated with the potential for poverty exacerbation from protection. We demonstrate that these results would not be identified using the methods implemented in previous studies. Thus, this study provides valuable practical information on the impacts of Bolivia's protected areas for conservation practitioners and demonstrates methods that are likely to be valuable to researchers interested in better understanding the heterogeneity in conservation impacts.

Confessions of a Square Peg

Confessions of a Square Peg

Fiscal Decentralization, Fiscal Incentives, and Pro-Poor Outcomes: Evidence from Viet Nam

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the relationship between fiscal decentralization and pro-poor outcomes based on the role of fiscal incentives. The literature on the relationship between fiscal decentralization and pro-poor outcomes is not well established in this area. A conceptual model is developed to explore in more detail this relationship, while endeavoring to illuminate the complexity of the issues involved for policy makers in developing countries. Four types of fiscal incentives are explored: namely, resources, responsibility, autonomy, and accountability. The paper then assesses the effectiveness of the Vietnamese system of fiscal decentralization for achieving pro-poor outcomes through a devolved system of fiscal incentives. The paper suggests that evidence from the Vietnamese case indicates that fiscal decentralization may contribute to poverty reduction outcomes, but does not provide evidence that fiscal decentralization is in and of itself inherently pro-poor. Rather, the lesson from Viet Nam is that if poverty reduction is an explicit objective for government, the system of fiscal decentralization should target pro-poor outcomes through an appropriate system of fiscal incentives. Since 2002, budgetary reallocation and income redistribution linked to poverty outcomes has been more strongly associated with equalizing fiscal transfers than with devolved finances in general. This represents a broadly correct approach to target poverty outcomes in a territorially unbalanced country like Viet Nam. Targeted transfers contribute to pro-poor outcomes by increasing the level of resources available to finance poverty spending. However, increasing the level of fiscal transfers for poverty spending will not ensure that fiscal transfers are then spent efficiently. In order to better realize these efficiency objectives, the government can promote greater fiscal and administrative decentralization of resources and responsibility to district- and commune-level governments. Further gains in this area must also be supported by greater levels of fiscal autonomy and fiscal accountability at the local government level.