ABSTRACT This paper examines the drivers of poverty reduction in Namibia using a Shapley value-based decomposition. We decompose changes in poverty into growth, equity, and inter-zonal mobility components. The results indicate that intra-zonal growth is the dominant driver of poverty reduction across poverty indices, while the equity component plays a relatively limited role, particularly for poverty intensity and severity. Inter-zonal mobility contributes significantly to reductions in poverty incidence but is associated with a modest increase in poverty depth. This divergence suggests heterogeneous mobility outcomes: while some households successfully cross the poverty line following relocation, others experience adjustment costs or unstable integration, resulting in limited gains among those who remain poor. Overall, the findings highlight the central role of broad-based growth and spatial mobility in reducing poverty in Namibia, while highlighting that the quality and stability of mobility transitions are critical for ensuring durable and inclusive welfare improvements.

This paper examines the factors driving poverty dynamics in Indonesia for the period 2014-2023 across 34 provinces, using a balanced panel model. The outcomes reveal high levels of poverty perpetuation, and that past deprivation has a significant impact on present levels of poverty. An increase in population over a short period contributes to poverty when employment and human capital development are low. Improvements in education always decrease poverty, while increases in unemployment lead to poverty growth. With endogeneity controlled using valid instruments (lagged investment terms and a novel instrumental approach: interactions between industry-education and industry-electricity), economic growth was found to have a positive, significant impact. This implies that the recent capital-intensive growth, without structural transformation, has been neither inclusive nor sustainable; it exacerbates poverty by increasing inequality, displacing urban labor, and driving inflation. Government spending and private-sector investment both help reduce poverty, but this depends on fiscal restraint and sectoral allocation. Poverty reduction is linked to industrial development, and in this case, the importance of attracting industry is highlighted. The paper suggests coordinated policies that combine demographic management with specific fiscal reforms and structural change towards labor-intensive growth, with investments in education and effective public expenditure.

Vietnam’s sustained poverty reduction has coincided with rising foreign direct investment (FDI) and a major shift from income-based to multidimensional poverty measurement, raising challenges for interpreting poverty dynamics and the role of FDI across regimes. This study examines the relationship between FDI and poverty reduction in Vietnam by accounting for poverty persistence, regional heterogeneity, and changes in poverty measurement. Using provincial panel data for 2002–2022 and a System GMM framework, three main findings emerge. First, poverty dynamics differ across measurement regimes: during the income-poverty period (2002–2016), poverty dynamics exhibited lower persistence and faster convergence, whereas under the multidimensional framework (2016–2022), poverty became more persistent and convergence slowed, reflecting the increasingly structural nature of remaining deprivation. Second, FDI is negatively associated with poverty under both measures, but its effects are conditional and uneven. Interaction effects indicate that the poverty-reducing impact of FDI depends on provincial income levels and initial deprivation, with weaker effects in provinces facing deeper multidimensional poverty. Third, higher FDI exposure is associated with greater poverty persistence, reflecting the spatial concentration of FDI in better-off regions rather than a poverty-increasing effect. The analysis is subject to limitations related to measurement regimes, and results are interpreted as conditional associations. Policy implications highlight that the poverty-reducing effects of FDI depend critically on investment quality, the strength of local production linkages, and complementary public spending, particularly in provinces facing persistent deprivation.

Poverty in Thailand shows strong spatial dependence that existing administrative boundaries fail to capture, leading to policies that overlook local socioeconomic realities. This study proposes a data-driven regionalization framework to infer geographically coherent “policy regions” that better represent poverty dynamics. Using household-level data from the Thai People Map and Analytics Platform (TPMAP), we analyze spatial autocorrelation across multiple poverty factors through Moran’s statistics and principal component analysis, followed by spatially constrained hierarchical clustering to delineate coherent regions. Bayesian hierarchical and geographically weighted regression models are then employed to examine how education influences household income at provincial, regional, and national levels. Our results identified six regions that reflect more accurately poverty structures than official divisions. Northern and Northeastern Thailand emerge as the regions most affected by low education, income, and savings, while Central Thailand shows higher inequality. The inferred regions demonstrate that spatially contiguous provinces often share similar socioeconomic structures, suggesting that policy targeting should align with these patterns rather than provincial borders. Our findings provide a quantitative foundation for evidence-based regional planning, enabling policymakers to design differentiated yet regionally coordinated interventions. The approach illustrates how spatial statistical modeling can bridge the gap between data analysis and effective poverty-alleviation policy.

Climate change is a pressing issue that has far-reaching effects on the global ecosystem, societies, and economies. Climate-induced disasters exacerbate multidimensional poverty through economic, social, and environmental pathways. This study examines the relationship between climate-induced disasters and multidimensional poverty, applying a mixed-method design comprising a PRISMA-guided systematic review and thematic analysis. Articles published between 1999 and 2025 were retrieved from Scopus and Web of Science, yielding 3587 articles. After reference checking and screening for relevance and availability, we finally reviewed 17 articles. The results highlight that climate-induced disasters disrupt economic and livelihood activities, negatively impact GDP, slow financial development, reduce per capita expenditure ability, and harm agricultural production. Disasters also have negative impacts on health and well-being, education, gender, the natural environment, and culture; these disasters promote intergenerational poverty. Among all stressors, floods and droughts are the most pervasive, and they have different magnitudes and durations of impacts. The assessment identifies governance quality, gender inequality, education, social positions, and environmental degradation as the significant mediating systems influencing vulnerability and recovery. To cope with vulnerabilities, individuals employ a variety of strategies based on their socioeconomic status. Building on these insights, the study develops the Multidimensional Climate–Poverty Dynamics (MCPD) Framework to conceptually capture climate–poverty as a socially constructed and institutionally mediated process. The study contributes theoretically to environmental sociology and empirically to climate policy by framing adaptation as a social process of transformation rather than as solely a survival mechanism.

Malawi is an agrarian country highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture located in the Sub-Saharan Africa region which is characterized by a highly variable climate. This study presents a novel quantitative framework for assessing irrigation demand in Malawi by integrating climatic variability with socio-economic vulnerability over the period 2002 to Recognizing that irrigation needs stem not only from rainfall deficits but also from their socio-economic impacts we analyze annual segments capturing environmental and social conditions. Using normalized rainfall and poverty data we establish baselines representing optimal hydrological conditions and minimal social stress (using poverty as a proxy). We define hydrological stress as deviations from maximum rainfall and social stress as deviations from minimum poverty. These deviation metrics are combined into an irrigation need index which captures the compounded impact of water scarcity and poverty. The core of the methodology is an irrigation need index that integrates these stresses amplifying demand during years marked by significant rainfall shortfalls and elevated poverty. To capture temporal dynamics more effectively we interpolate the discrete index into a continuous function enabling the calculation of cumulative irrigation burden and average annual demand. The framework also identifies periods where irrigation need exceeds a critical threshold highlighting years of intensified stress. Key findings reveal an increase in irrigation need between 2020 and 2022 aligning with observed climate and poverty trends. This socially grounded data-driven approach provides a dynamic and policy-relevant tool for diagnosing irrigation urgency supporting more targeted equitable and timely water resource management strategies in Malawi.

Malawi's economy is predominantly agrarian, and agriculture plays a central role in national development. Agriculture contributes 25–30% of GDP, generates more than 80% of export earnings, and provides employment for over 70% of the population, largely through smallholder systems. Despite this importance, agricultural productivity remains low and closely linked to persistent poverty and limited literacy. With an adult literacy rate of about 68% and disproportionately high illiteracy among rural women (up to 35.2%), understanding how literacy interacts with agricultural performance and poverty becomes essential. However, many existing studies examine these factors separately, overlooking their feedback relationships under resource constraints. In this study, we develop a mathematical framework to examine how changes in literacy influence agricultural productivity and household poverty dynamics over time in Malawi. The model is a structurally closed, deterministic system linking literacy, agricultural productivity, and resource adequacy through feedback relationships, capturing equilibrium behavior and systemic sensitivity. The model integrates demographic, educational, and agricultural components to capture system behavior under different scenarios, and parameter values were informed by national statistics and international databases, including the Malawi National Statistical Office and the World Bank. Empirical validation is performed using a copula-based approach to quantify the dependence structure among literacy, productivity, and poverty, accounting for nonlinear interactions and stochastic fluctuations. The results reveal thresholds at which improvements in literacy translate into productivity gains and gradual reductions in poverty, highlighting policy opportunities that jointly target education and agricultural development to support sustainable poverty reduction.

This study is motivated by the dynamics of population and poverty in Aceh Province, which have the potential to influence regional economic growth. Increases in population and reductions in poverty do not always correspond with optimal acceleration of economic growth, necessitating an empirical study to understand the relationship among these three variables. The objective of this research is to analyze the influence of population size and poverty on economic growth in Aceh Province, both partially and simultaneously. This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary time-series data from 1995 to 2024, obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. The analysis is conducted using a multiple linear regression model, complemented by classical assumption tests and hypothesis testing. The results indicate that, partially, population size has a significant effect on economic growth, with a regression coefficient of 6.546. Similarly, poverty significantly affects economic growth, albeit with a lower coefficient of 1.079. Simultaneously, population size and poverty together have a significant impact on economic growth, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.942. These findings suggest that increasing population and addressing poverty in an integrated manner are important factors in promoting economic growth in Aceh. This study recommends that local governments design balanced development policies, optimize demographic potential, and strengthen poverty alleviation programs to support sustainable economic growth.

This research examines the impact of women’s employment on poverty dynamics and human development in the rural regions of the Philippines. Despite progress in gender equality legislation, women’s participation in the labor force remains constrained by traditional gender roles, cultural expectations, and institutional barriers. Anchored in Social Role Theory and Gender Schema Theory, the study examines how these frameworks influence women’s labor market outcomes and socioeconomic contributions. Using panel data from 16 rural regions between 2018 and 2023, the research employs Pearson Correlation and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) to examine the relationships among women’s labor force participation rate (WLFPR), number of employed women (NEW), poverty incidence (PVI), and the regional human development index (RHDI). Findings indicate that higher female employment and labor force participation are significantly correlated with reduced poverty incidence and improvements in human development. However, results also highlight the limitations of relying solely on employment indicators, pointing to the need for broader measures of gender equality, such as the gender wage gap, sectoral employment distribution, and legal frameworks as identified in the Philippine Commission on Women’s (PCW) Compendium of Indicators for Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment (GEWE). The study concludes that empowering women through employment is essential to rural development, but the scope of analysis is limited to 16 regions and PSA census-based data, which requires cautious interpretation. Policy recommendations include childcare support, skills development programs, and reforms aimed at dismantling restrictive gender norms. By addressing both socio-cultural and institutional barriers, this study provides insights for policymakers to promote inclusive and sustainable rural development.

Relevance. The growth of poverty and socio-economic inequality remains one of the key threats to the sustainable development of the global economy. Global crises of the last decade ‒ the COVID-19 pandemic, inflationary shocks, and geopolitical instability ‒ have intensified social imbalances, exacerbating the problem of equitable resource distribution. Under these conditions, the relevance of searching for effective tools of state fiscal policy increases, enabling the simultaneous stimulation of economic growth and reduction of social inequality. The purpose of the study is to identify the interlinkages between poverty, socio-economic inequality, and economic growth, as well as to determine directions for improving Russia's fiscal policy taking into account international experience. Objectives. To achieve this purpose, the following tasks are addressed: analyzing the dynamics of poverty and inequality in countries with different levels of development, assessing the impact of tax-budget instruments on their reduction, and identifying institutional factors that determine the effectiveness of state financial policy. Methodology. The empirical base of the study is formed on the basis of statistical data from the World Bank, OECD, WID, Rosstat, and the National Bureau of Statistics of China for 2016–2022. Methods of comparative analysis, regression modeling, correlation and graphical analysis, as well as visualization of results in the form of scatter plots and heat maps, were used. Results. The research results confirm that redistributive mechanisms of fiscal policy have a significant impact on poverty reduction, but their effect on the level of socio-economic inequality depends on the structure of expenditures and the quality of economic institutions. Conclusions. Based on the comprehensive interlinkages between poverty, inequality, and economic growth, taking into account international experience and the national specifics of Russia, it is recommended to enhance the efficiency and targeting of social payments, develop progressive elements of the tax system to overcome excessive asset inequality, and expand investments in human capital.

This paper investigates poverty dynamics in Brazil, highlighting how the frequency and patterns of movements into and out of poverty shape our understanding of stratification, social mobility, and the design of public policies. Using PNADC microdata from 2015 to 2020, we develop and implement an algorithm (Pynad) that links individuals and households across survey waves to construct panels. We then compare results across three measures of intertemporal poverty. The findings show that the choice of measure substantially affects estimated poverty levels. Transitory poverty contributes markedly to overall poverty in nearly all combinations of lines and measures, although its relative weight declines as the poverty line rises. These results suggest that, while poverty monitoring may rely on cross-sectional data, the design of public policies must take poverty dynamics into account, as the size of the target population varies considerably across approaches. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for targeted income transfer programs. JEL Classification Codes: I32; D31; D63

Poverty remains a defining feature of informal settlements, demanding continuous scholarly evaluation and policy attention. This paper interrogates the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of informal settlement characterization and its intersection with poverty, situating the discussion within the broader context of urban informality. Through a systematic review and content analysis of existing literature, the study frames informality as a knowledge-based phenomenon that links the emergence of informal settlements to survival strategies adopted by urban dwellers. The findings reveal that informal settlements are characterized by precarious habitability, inadequate housing, unemployment, overcrowding, and unsustainable consumption of energy and natural resources. These conditions not only intensify poverty and poor health outcomes but also exert severe pressure on ecosystems, undermining environmental services and accelerating climate change impacts. The paper further identifies a fragmented discourse in prior scholarship, which often treats informal settlements as isolated urban processes rather than as integral to the dynamics of poverty, particularly in the Global South. By reconceptualizing informal settlements as both a product and driver of poverty, the study underscores the need for integrated approaches to urban management. It argues that sustainable responses must prioritize strategic urban planning, investment in health infrastructure, and inclusive policy frameworks that recognize the role of migrants and provide equitable access to education, household services, and urban opportunities. Ultimately, the paper proposes that continuous updating of urban development plans, coupled with inclusive governance, is essential for addressing the dual challenges of poverty and environmental vulnerability in informal settlements. Such measures are critical to advancing resilient, healthy, and sustainable urban futures, where informal settlements are not marginalized but incorporated into broader strategies of equitable urban development.

This study is motivated by the persistently high poverty rate in Indonesia despite the government’s implementation of various fiscal interventions and programs aimed at strengthening household purchasing power. Poverty remains a national strategic issue as it reflects social inequality and limited public access to basic needs. The objective of this research is to analyze the influence of government expenditure and household purchasing power on the poverty level in Indonesia over a long-term period. The study employs a quantitative approach using secondary time-series data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency, and the analysis is conducted using a multiple linear regression model to examine both partial and simultaneous effects among the variables. The findings indicate that, partially, government expenditure and household purchasing power do not have a significant effect on poverty, although both variables show a negative relationship that reflects a tendency toward poverty reduction. However, simultaneously, the two variables are found to have a significant influence on poverty levels, indicating that they jointly play an important role in explaining the dynamics of poverty in Indonesia. These results suggest that a combination of fiscal policy measures and efforts to strengthen household purchasing power remains essential for reducing poverty.

The dynamics of household poverty in Indonesia are influenced by consumption patterns that often differ between men and women, especially in the socio-economic context of regions such as East Aceh which still face inequality in the role of household resource management. This study aims to explore how gender-based consumption priorities affect household economic vulnerability and resilience, as well as analyze the relationship between spending decisions, basic needs allocation, and poverty risk. Using a mixed-methods approach with an explanatory design, this study collected survey data from 60 household respondents as well as in-depth interviews with 12 key informants, including heads of households, housewives, and community leaders, which were then analyzed using descriptive statistics, linear regression, and thematic analysis. The results showed that households that prioritized consumption more on health, education, and children's needs, which were generally influenced by women's preferences, had a lower level of poverty vulnerability than households whose consumption was dominated by non-essential needs, lifestyle, or personal expenses that were more determined by men. These findings confirm that strengthening the role of women in household economic decision-making contributes significantly to welfare stability and poverty risk reduction. This research makes an important contribution to the development of gender theory and household economics, while offering practical implications for the design of more gender-responsive poverty alleviation policies.

Poverty remains a structural challenge in Brebes Regency despite improvements in several socio-economic indicators, while empirical evidence on the roles of education and unemployment in shaping poverty at the local level remains mixed. This study aims to examine the effects of average years of schooling and the open unemployment rate on poverty levels in Brebes Regency during the 2014–2024 period. Using a quantitative approach, this study employs multiple linear regression analysis based on time-series data obtained from official publications of Statistics Indonesia. The results indicate that average years of schooling have a significant and negative effect on poverty levels, suggesting that improvements in educational attainment contribute to poverty reduction, whereas the open unemployment rate does not show a statistically significant effect despite exhibiting a positive relationship. Simultaneously, both variables explain a substantial proportion of the variation in poverty levels over the study period, highlighting the more consistent role of education compared to unemployment in explaining poverty dynamics in Brebes Regency. The study concludes that poverty alleviation policies should prioritize improving access to and the quality of education, particularly at the primary and secondary levels, while policy implications and future research directions emphasize the need to incorporate informal employment and other structural factors to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of poverty.

Energy poverty is characterized by a household's inability to afford adequate energy services for a decent standard of living, extends beyond mere income deprivation, encompassing factors such as poor housing conditions, high energy prices, and inefficient energy consumption. Consequently, understanding and addressing energy poverty requires a holistic approach. energy poverty is also shaped by factors such as the energy efficiency of dwellings, the cost of energy, and individual energy consumption behaviors. Early scholarly contributions, notably Brenda Boardman’s seminal work, established the foundational understanding of energy poverty as a condition where households are unable to afford adequate energy services to maintain a healthy and comfortable living environment. Building on Boardman's work, subsequent research has further refined these factors, integrating aspects like energy efficiency, housing quality, and the broader socio-economic context to provide a more nuanced understanding of energy poverty dynamics. The complexity behind the concept of energy poverty has led to varied measurement approaches globally, with no single, universally accepted standard for assessing energy poverty, leading to challenges in international comparability and policy implementation. Recognizing these complexities, the European Union has moved towards a more comprehensive understanding, seeking to integrate various dimensions into a cohesive Framework. The European Union's approach often incorporates metrics such as the inability to keep homes adequately warm, the presence of leaking roofs or damp walls, and high housing cost overburden rates to capture the lived experiences of energy-poor households. This research employs a methodology centered on four basic indicators extracted from Eurostat data, enabling a comprehensive examination of energy poverty's social, income, and housing quality components. Specifically, the selected indicators – percentage of total population living in a dwelling with structural defects, percentage of households unable to keep home adequately warm, and housing cost overburden rate – offer a framework for assessing the multifaceted nature of energy poverty across EU member states. The general trend indicates a slight improvement in the level of energy poverty across EU countries, albeit with persistent variations between the best and worst performers. While some policy measures may be effective broadly, others require refinement to address specific national or regional challenges. Furthermore, an increased focus on energy efficiency policies and renewable energy sources has been identified as a key driver for alleviating energy poverty, particularly in the long-term. This underscores the critical need for agile and adaptable policy responses that can swiftly address emergent challenges while fostering long-term resilience in energy systems.

Objective: To propose a model based on non-homogeneous Markov chains to analyze social mobility and the transitions between the categories of poverty defined by the National Council for the Evaluation of Social Development Policy in México. Methodology: A non-homogeneous Markov chain approach is employed to project the overall proportions of the population across categories of poverty and vulnerability. Transition probabilities are adjusted using observed data to ensure an accurate match between the model’s projections and actual proportions. Results: The projections reveal significant disparities between regions in México. Northern states show a higher proportion of non-poor and non-vulnerable populations, while southern states exhibit the highest levels of extreme and moderate poverty. Limitations: The model may be constrained by the quality and availability of the observed data used to adjust the transition probabilities, as well as by unaccounted variations in underlying social and economic dynamics. Originality: This work introduces a novel approach by applying non-homogeneous Markov chains to analyze social mobility and poverty transitions in the context of México. It also incorporates data-driven adjustments to transition probabilities to ensure precise projections. Conclusions: The projections highlight the regional heterogeneity of social mobility in México, emphasizing the need for targeted public policies that address the specific needs of each region, particularly in the most disadvantaged areas.

Changing Dynamics of Poverty in Nepal

Poverty in Eastern Indonesia remains a persistent challenge that continues to hinder regional development. This study examines the influence of income inequality and poverty depth on the proportion of poor people across sixteen provinces during the 2024–2025 period. Drawing on panel data, the findings provide strong evidence that disparities in income distribution and the severity of poverty are closely linked to poverty dynamics in the region. The results indicate that an increase in the Gini Index contributes to a higher poverty rate, while a rise in the Poverty Depth Index also significantly adds to the number of poor individuals. Taken together, these factors serve as important and valid explanations for variations in poverty levels. The study highlights that poverty is not solely determined by economic growth, but is also shaped by uneven distribution of development outcomes and the vulnerability of low-income households. Therefore, effective poverty reduction strategies in Eastern Indonesia should combine policies promoting fairer income distribution with well-targeted social protection programs aimed at alleviating the burden on the most vulnerable groups.

Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractThis study aims to examine how different EU economic models mediate the relationship between post-crisis economic restructuring and migration pressures by analyzing the co-evolution of immigration, public finance, social protection, and labor market indicators, and to identify which institutional configurations most effectively harness migration to support resilient and inclusive growth. The analysis employs a panel of EU member states, combining harmonized indicators (immigration, GDP per capita, at-risk-of-poverty rates, public finances, and labor market conditions) and two-way fixed-effects regressions with interactions for economic models (social market, neoliberal, and mixed) and predictive margins. The results indicate that immigration is associated with modest but statistically significant gains in GDP per capita in social market economies. A 1 percentage point increase in the share of immigrants corresponds to a rise of around 0.3–0.4% in GDP per capita (p < 0.05). The effect is smaller and only weakly significant in neoliberal economies, and approaches zero in mixed economies. The direct impact of immigration on at-risk-of-poverty rates is limited in all three models, with coefficients close to zero, and country-time effects explain the bulk of the variation in poverty. Neoliberal economies combine relatively higher average GDP with greater dispersion and higher poverty risks, whereas mixed economies exhibit lower GDP levels and more volatile poverty dynamics. The findings indicate that institutional design and welfare-labor market architectures condition whether migration supports resilient and inclusive post-crisis restructuring, implying that migration policy must be integrated with broader social, labor, and fiscal reforms.AcknowledgmentsThe project was funded by the EU NextGenerationEU through the Recovery and Resilience Plan for Slovakia under the project No. 09I03-03-V01-00023 and the Ministry of Education, Research, Development and Youth of the Slovak Republic, and the Slovak Academy of Sciences (VEGA 2/0172/2). Oleksandr Matsenko acknowledges that his input to the publication was prepared within the framework of the research project “Restructuring of the national economy in the direction of digital transformations for sustainable development” (№0122U001232) funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine.