Potential For Large Earthquakes Research Articles

Preliminary Report on the 18 May 2020 Ms 5.0 Qiaojia Earthquake, Yunnan, China

AbstractThe 18 May 2020 Ms 5.0 Qiaojia earthquake occurred in Qiaojia County, Yunnan Province, ∼25 km away from the 3 August 2014 Ms 6.5 Ludian earthquake. This earthquake was well recorded by dense local seismic stations of the Qiaojia array constructed near the Xiaojiang fault zone. The focal mechanism of the mainshock exhibited strike-slip motion with a centroid depth of 8 km. We determined the seismogenic fault of the Qiaojia earthquake using aftershock relocation with local dense seismic arrays. The mainshock is located on a previously unmapped fault. Aftershocks clearly delineated east–west rupture plane, which was not revealed by the regional seismic network due to relatively sparse stations. The length and width of the aftershock zone are ∼5 km and 3 km, respectively. The focal mechanisms of 70 aftershocks with magnitudes ML≥1.0 showed similar focal mechanism with the mainshock. The stress field inverted from focal mechanisms of the aftershocks is consistent with the tectonic stress field. The coseismic and postseismic static coulomb stress changes show that the Ludian earthquake has a negative impact on the Qiaojia earthquake with a value of −0.01 MPa, implying that the Qiaojia earthquake was unlikely statically triggered by the Ludian earthquake. The Qiaojia earthquake sequence was characterized by low b-value and low-decay rate in the aftershock area, indicating high-seismic risk in this region. The dense seismic observation allows us to study the moderate earthquake in detail and provides us with valuable information of near-fault seismicity to analyze earthquake hazard and the potential of large earthquakes in the future.

Large submarine earthquakes that occurred worldwide in a 1-year period (June 2013 to June 2014) – a contribution to the understanding of tsunamigenic potential

Abstract. This paper is a contribution to a better understanding of the tsunamigenic potential of large submarine earthquakes. Here, we analyze the tsunamigenic potential of large earthquakes which have occurred worldwide with magnitudes around Mw = 7.0 and greater during a period of 1 year, from June 2013 to June 2014. The analysis involves earthquake model evaluation, tsunami numerical modeling, and sensors' records analysis in order to confirm the generation of a tsunami (or lack thereof) following the occurrence of an earthquake. We also investigate and discuss the sensitivity of tsunami generation to the earthquake parameters recognized to control tsunami occurrence, including the earthquake location, magnitude, focal mechanism and fault rupture depth. Through this analysis, we attempt to understand why some earthquakes trigger tsunamis and others do not, and how the earthquake source parameters are related to the potential of tsunami generation. We further discuss the performance of tsunami warning systems in detecting tsunamis and disseminating the alerts. A total of 23 events, with magnitudes ranging from Mw = 6.7 to Mw = 8.1, have been analyzed. This study shows that about 39 % of the analyzed earthquakes caused tsunamis that were recorded by different sensors with wave amplitudes varying from a few centimeters to about 2 m. Tsunami numerical modeling shows good agreement between simulated waveforms and recorded waveforms, for some events. On the other hand, simulations of tsunami generation predict that some of the events, considered as non-tsunamigenic, caused small tsunamis. We find that most generated tsunamis were caused by shallow earthquakes (depth < 30 km) and thrust faults that took place on/near the subduction zones. The results of this study can help the development of modified and improved versions of tsunami decision matrixes for various oceanic domains.

Evaluation of quasi-isolated seismic bridge behavior using nonlinear bearing models

Seismic isolation is a well-accepted bridge design philosophy for providing earthquake resistance, but the design complexity and higher cost of construction can make this approach relatively less attractive in regions of moderate seismic hazard or with the potential for large earthquakes only at long recurrence intervals. Quasi-isolation is an innovative, yet economical and pragmatic, design philosophy that employs typical bridge bearings as fuses to ensure predictable seismic structural response. This paper presents computational models for evaluating quasi-isolated bridge systems, where certain bearing components can slide and limit the forces transferred between the superstructure and substructure. Nonlinear elements have been formulated to capture the local bi-directional stick–slip behaviors in the bridge bearings and the bilinear (and eventual fracture) behavior of steel retainers that limit transverse bearing movement. A bridge prototype is described, with the anticipated nonlinear behaviors in the structural components defined and implemented in a finite element model of the global structure. Static and dynamic pushover analyses are performed in both longitudinal and transverse directions to demonstrate limit states and progression of damage in the bridge structure. Results indicate that the abutment backwalls provide significant force capacity in the longitudinal direction. In the transverse direction, the force capacities of the retainers and fixed bearings have a significant influence on global bridge behavior and therefore should be appropriately proportioned to allow for effective quasi-isolation of such bridge structures.

Measurement of interseismic strain across the Haiyuan fault (Gansu, China), by InSAR

The Haiyuan fault is part of a major left-lateral fault system at the northeastern edge of the Tibet-Qinghai plateau. Two M8 earthquakes (1920 and 1927) occurred along the fault, bracketing an unbroken section of the fault identified as the Tianzhu seismic gap. We use interferometric synthetic aperture radar data from descending orbits of the ERS satellites, acquired between 1993 and 1998 along two adjacent tracks covering the gap, to measure the current surface movements and better understand the present day mechanical behavior of this fault section. The analysis of the radar data involves first the combined correction of orbital errors and errors associated with the phase delay through the troposphere. A subset of the data is then selected based on the analysis of the residual noise spectra for each pair of data. The selected interferograms are stacked and the average phase change rate is converted in fault-parallel velocity assuming that the ground movement is horizontal and parallel to the fault. Velocity maps from both tracks show a zone of high velocity gradient across the fault, a few kilometers wide, consistent with left-lateral slip on the Haiyuan fault. The average velocity field from the two tracks in their overlapping area is well fit with a single screw dislocation model in an elastic half-space. The derived fault slip rate at depth (4.2–8 mm/yr) is consistent with recent GPS results. The corresponding shallow apparent locking depth (0–4.2 km) can be explained by a current low stress accumulation on the fault due to creep almost on the entire fault plane. However, unless it is transient, this creep would be paradoxical with the occurrence of past large earthquakes along this fault section, as revealed by paleoseismology. An alternative model, implying both shallow creep in the brittle upper crust and deep aseismic slip beneath the seismogenic layer, separated by a locked section, would be consistent with InSAR observations and with the potential for large earthquakes on the fault as well. A two-dislocation model with slip at 5 mm/yr beneath 15 km and a transient creep rate of 11 mm/yr between 2 and 7 km fits the InSAR data. However, the width and creep rate of the shallow creeping zone and their possible along-strike variations are still poorly resolved with the present data set.

Seismic hazard in regions of present day low seismic activity: uncertainties in the paleoseismic investigations along the Bree Fault Scarp (Roer Graben, Belgium)

Earthquake hazard assessment in stable continental regions, such as northern Europe, has traditionally been evaluated on the basis of the instrumentally and historically recorded seismicity, which indicates relatively low hazard levels. Reliability of such estimates is a matter of debate as the long-term potential of large earthquakes usually cannot be determined based on short observational periods generally less than a few hundred years. A significant improvement to this lack of knowledge can be achieved by extending the past observations into the geological time scale. Paleoseismic investigations can provide valuable information to bridge this gap, where the potential for large earthquakes can be quantified both in magnitude and recurrence period, based on the observation of prehistoric earthquakes (paleoearthquakes) in the geological record (particularly in the last 20,000 years). However, using these records in seismic hazard analysis requires systematic treatment of uncertainties. Usually uncertainties are inherent to the interpretation of geological record, which leads, in the end, to the identification of paleoearthquakes. Field observations used in the analysis may satisfy several alternative interpretations. Such interpretations become useless when alternative solutions exist but not documented in detail, and especially when the relative reliability of the favored interpretation with respect to the alternative interpretations is not known. The recently introduced method using logic-tree formalism, which is based on qualitative description of the uncertainties related to the paleoseismic data and especially in its interpretation, is applied in the paleoseismic investigations performed on the Bree Fault Scarp, along the Feldbiss Fault (Roer Graben, Belgium). The cumulative uncertainties associated with the different stages of the study are computed as the combination of the preferred alternative branches in the logic-tree presentation. The final uncertainty and its relative importance in seismic hazard analysis is expressed as the paleoseismic quality factor (PQF), which indicate 0.76. This value can directly be used in seismic hazard analysis.