Global Sea Level Rise Research Articles

Relation between Central European Climate Change and Eifel Volcanism during the Last 130,000 Years: The ELSA-23-Tephra-Stack

The analysis of tephra layers in maar lake sediments of the Eifel shows 14 well-visible tephra during the last glacial cycle from the Holocene to the Eemian (0–130,000 yr b2k). These tephra were analyzed for their petrographic composition, which allows us to connect several tephra to eruption sites. All tephra were dated by application of the ELSA-20 chronology, developed using the late Pleistocene infilled maar lake of Auel and the Holocene lake Holzmaar (0–60,000 yr b2k). We extend the ELSA-20 chronology with this paper for the millennia of 60,000–130,000 yr b2k (ELSA-23 chronology), which is based on the infilled maar lake records from Dehner, Hoher List, and Jungferweiher. The evaluation of the tephra from the entire last glacial cycle shows that all 14 tephra were close to interstadial warming of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. In particular, phreatomagmatic maar eruptions were systematically associated with Heinrich events or C-events. These events represent times of warming of the Southern Hemisphere, global sea level rise, and CO2 increase, which predate the abrupt interstadial warming events of the Northern Hemisphere. This synchroneity indicates a physical relationship between endogenic and exogenic processes. Changes in the lithospheric stress field in response to changes in continental ice loads have already been suggested as a potential candidate to explain the exogenic forcing of endogenic processes. The chronology of volcanic activity in the Eifel demonstrates that intraplate mantle plumes are also affected by the exogenic forcing of endogenic processes.

Advances in monitoring glaciological processes in Kalallit Nunaat (Greenland) over the past decades

Greenland’s glaciers have been retreating, thinning and accelerating since the mid-1990s, with the mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) now being the largest contributor to global sea level rise. Monitoring changes in glacier dynamics using in-situ or remote sensing methods has been and remains therefore crucial to improve our understanding of glaciological processes and the response of glaciers to changes in climate. Over the past two decades, significant advances in technology have provided improvements in the way we observe glacier behavior and have helped to reduce uncertainties in future projections. This review focuses on advances in in-situ monitoring of glaciological processes, but also discusses novel methods in satellite remote sensing. We further highlight gaps in observing, measuring and monitoring glaciers in Greenland, which should be addressed in order to improve our understanding of glacier dynamics and to reduce in uncertainties in future sea level rise projections. In addition, we review coordination and inclusivity of science conducted in Greenland and provide suggestion that could foster increased collaboration and co-production.

Evaluating Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Southeastern Türkiye Coastline: a Coastal Vulnerability Perspective

Coastal areas are inherently sensitive and dynamic, susceptible to natural forces like waves, winds, currents, and tides. Human activities further accelerate coastal changes, while climate change and global sea level rise add to the challenges. Recognizing and safeguarding these coasts, vital for both socioeconomic and environmental reasons, becomes imperative. The objective of this study is to categorize the coasts of the Mersin and İskenderun bays along the southeastern coast of Türkiye based on their vulnerability to natural forces and human-induced factors using the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) method. The study area encompasses approximately 520 km of coastline. The coastal vulnerability analysis reveals that the coastal zone comprises various levels of vulnerability along the total coastline: 24.7% (128 km) is categorized as very high vulnerability, 27.4% (142 km) as high vulnerability, 23.7% (123 km) as moderate vulnerability, and 24.3% (126 km) as low vulnerability. Key parameters influencing vulnerability include coastal slope, land use, and population density. High and very high vulnerability are particularly prominent in coastal plains characterized by gentle slopes, weak geological and geomorphological features, and significant socioeconomic value.

Estimating the Mass Balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1985 to 2021 using the Input-Output Method

Accurate monitoring of the Antarctic ice sheet's mass balance is crucial for comprehending its contribution to global sea level rise and climate patterns. We estimate the Antarctic mass balance from 1985 to 2021 using an input-output method. Ice discharge is estimated using an automated algorithm, while surface mass balance data is obtained from the RACMO2.3p2 model. We find a recent decrease in the rate of ice mass loss in Antarctica, consistent with the recent studies. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) drives the increase in ice discharge and mass loss, influenced by rising ocean temperatures and extreme weather events. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) shows stability in mass balance, except for an increase in discharge and mass loss in the Cp-D sub-region. The Antarctic Peninsula experiences increased ice discharge and mass loss, while the islands maintain a positive mass balance. The findings contribute to our understanding of the ongoing changes in ice mass and highlight the sensitivity of different regions to external factors.

A marine incursion during the onset of T-OAE in Sichuan Basin, China: Evidence from green clay minerals and carbonate concretions

A high-amplitude global sea level rose rapidly during the early Toarcian (Early Jurassic), making the transgression deposits potential stratigraphic correlation markers of marine and terrestrial successions. Green clay minerals (i.e., glauconite and chamosite), carbonate concretions, and geochemical database associated with the early Toarcian global transgression are archived in the Lower Jurassic Da'anzhai Member (the Early Toarcian age) in the Sichuan Basin of China, a mega lake along the Tethys Ocean. The fine-grained glauconites with high Al and low Si contents suggested that they were transported from offshore to the lake by marine incursion and were oxidized during the transport processes. The green authigenic chamosite cement and redeposited chamosite grains with high Mg/Fe and low Al/Si ratios were diagenetically transformed from berthierine formed in the brackish water caused by marine incursion. The chemically impure siderite concretions with low 87Sr/86Sr ratios and high δ13C values suggested that the lake water and sediment pore waters were mixed with seawater. Coeval calcareous concretions have low 87Sr/86Sr ratios and high δ13C values, indicating the mixing of lake water with seawater. Combining the stratigraphic low 87Sr/86Sr values, we suggested that there was a marine incursion into the Sichuan Basin. According to the organic carbon isotopic stratigraphy correlation, the marine incursion occurred during the onset of T-OAE. The rapid and high-amplitude global sea-level rise may have caused this marine incursion.

Spatial variability of marine-terminating ice sheet retreat in the Puget Lowland

Abstract. Understanding drivers of marine-terminating ice sheet behavior is important for constraining ice contributions to global sea level rise. In part, the stability of marine-terminating ice is influenced by solid Earth conditions at the grounded-ice margin. While the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) contributed significantly to global mean sea level during its final post-Last-Glacial-Maximum (LGM) collapse, the drivers and patterns of retreat are not well constrained. Coastal outcrops in the deglaciated Puget Lowland of Washington State – largely below sea level during glacial maxima, then uplifted above sea level via glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) – record the late Pleistocene history of the CIS. The preservation of LGM glacial and post-LGM deglacial sediments provides a unique opportunity to assess the variability in marine ice sheet behavior of the southernmost CIS. Based on paired stratigraphic and geochronological work, with a newly developed marine reservoir correction for this region, we identify that the late-stage CIS experienced stepwise retreat into a marine environment between 15 000 and 14 000 years before present, consistent with timing of marine incursion into the region reported in earlier works. Standstill of marine-terminating ice for at least 500 years, paired with rapid vertical landscape evolution, was followed by continued retreat of ice in a subaerial environment. These results suggest rapid rates of solid Earth uplift and topographic support (e.g., grounding zone wedges) stabilized the ice margin, supporting final subaerial ice retreat. This work leads to a better understanding of shallow-marine and coastal-ice-sheet retreat and is relevant to sectors of the contemporary Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and marine-terminating outlet glaciers.

Floating Ports as Support for Port Relocation Measures on Sea Level Rise

Ports are one of the structures where the effects of global warming are most severe and intense in atmospheric, oceanic, and geographical terms. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s assessment reports, although it is possible to slow down global warming by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is not foreseen to stop global warming and sea level rise (SLR) in any scenario. The rising sea level, an inevitable consequence of global warming, is a clear threat to conventional port facilities. In summary, SLR triggered by climate change, which is today's hot topic, may cause conventional port infrastructures to be flooded and lose their functionality. To cope with this threat, port facility planning, and design stages must be carried out by referring to the updated threshold values in Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios defined by the Working Groups of the IPCC. However, the uncertainty about the scale, timing, and location of SLR makes definitive solution-oriented approaches more prominent. One of these approaches is floating port structures. This study aims to reveal the role of floating port structures in the implementation of the relocation measure emphasized in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) for conventional ports under the threat of SLR. Initially, in this study, regions with higher SLR risk were identified by considering SSP scenarios contributed by Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data. Afterwards, the dynamic downscaling model was used to determine the regions with higher regional sea level rise (RSLR) risk and the Marine Traffic database was used to determine the ports in these regions. Thus, it is evaluated whether floating ports can be a suitable alternative in the relocation decision of ports under SLR risk. It is expected that maritime transport will be maintained at adequate security and operational levels by revealing the pros and cons of floating ports.

Subglacial valleys preserved in the highlands of south and east Greenland record restricted ice extent during past warmer climates

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet is a key contributor to contemporary global sea level rise, but its long-term history and response to episodes of warming in Earth's geological past remain uncertain. The terrain covered by the ice sheet comprises ∼ 79 % of Greenland and ∼ 1.1 % of the Earth's land surface and contains geomorphological records that may provide valuable insights into past ice-sheet behaviour. Here we use ice surface morphology and radio-echo sounding data to identify ice-covered valleys within the highlands of southern and eastern Greenland and use numerical ice-sheet modelling to constrain the climatological and glaciological conditions responsible for valley incision. Our mapping reveals intricate subglacial valley networks with morphologies that are indicative of substantial glacial modification of an inherited fluvial landscape, yet many of these valleys are presently situated beneath cold-based, slow-moving (i.e. non-erosive) ice. We use the morphology of the valleys and our simple ice-sheet model experiments to infer that incision likely occurred beneath erosive mountain valley glaciers during one or more phases of Greenland's glacial history when ice was restricted to the southern and eastern highlands and when Greenland's contribution to barystatic sea level was up to +7 m relative to today. We infer that this valley incision primarily occurred prior to the growth of a continental-scale ice sheet, most likely during the late Miocene (ca. 7–5 Ma) and/or late Pliocene (ca. 3.6–2.6 Ma). Our findings therefore provide new data-based constraints on early Greenland Ice Sheet extent and dynamics that can serve as valuable boundary conditions in models of regional and global palaeoclimate during past warm periods that are important analogues for climate change in the 21st century and beyond.

A Greenland-wide empirical reconstruction of paleo ice sheet retreat informed by ice extent markers: PaleoGrIS version 1.0

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet is a large contributor to global sea level rise, and current mass losses are projected to accelerate. However, model projections of future ice sheet evolution are limited by the fact that the ice sheet is not in equilibrium with present-day climate but is still adjusting to past changes that occurred over thousands of years. While the influence of such committed adjustments on future ice sheet evolution remains unquantified, it could be addressed by calibrating numerical ice sheet models over larger timescales and, importantly, against empirical data on ice margin positions. To enable such paleo data–model interactions, we need Greenland-wide empirical reconstructions of past ice sheet extent that combine geomorphological and geochronological evidence. Despite an increasing number of field studies producing new chronologies, such a reconstruction is currently lacking in Greenland. Furthermore, a time slice reconstruction can help to (i) answer open questions regarding the rate and pattern of ice margin evolution in Greenland since the glacial maximum, (ii) develop a standardised record of empirical data, and (iii) identify new sites for future field campaigns. Based on these motivations, we here present PaleoGrIS 1.0, a new Greenland-wide isochrone reconstruction of ice sheet extent evolution through the Late Glacial and early- to mid-Holocene informed by both geomorphological and geochronological markers. Our isochrones have a temporal resolution of 500 years and span ∼ 7.5 kyr from approximately 14 to 6.5 kyr BP. We describe the resulting reconstruction of the shrinking ice sheet and conduct a series of ice-sheet-wide and regional analyses to quantify retreat rates, areal extent change, and their variability across space and time. During the Late Glacial and early- to mid-Holocene, we find the Greenland Ice Sheet has lost about one-third of its areal extent (0.89 million km2). Between ∼ 14 and ∼ 8.5 kyr BP, it experienced a near-constant rate of areal extent loss of 170 ± 27 km2 yr−1. We find that the ice-sheet-scale pattern of margin retreat is well correlated to atmospheric and oceanic temperature variations, which implies a high sensitivity of the ice sheet to deglacial warming. However, during the Holocene, we observe inertia in the ice sheet system that likely caused a centennial- to millennial-scale time lag in ice extent response. At the regional scale, we observe highly heterogeneous deglacial responses in ice extent evident in both the magnitude and rate of retreat. We hypothesise that non-climatic factors, such as the asymmetrical nature of continental shelves and onshore bed topographies, play important roles in determining the regional- to valley-scale dynamics. PaleoGrIS 1.0 is an open-access database designed to be used by both the empirical and numerical modelling communities. It should prove a useful basis for improved future versions of the reconstruction when new geomorphological and geochronological data become available.

The Early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic event (OAE-1a) of the uppermost M'Cherga formation of northern Tunisia: Geochemical characterization and inferred petroleum potential

The Early Aptian organic-rich deep marine deposits of the upper Member of the M'Cherga Formation (Valanginian-Aptian) of northern Tunisia were studied based on a multidisciplinary approach including biostratigraphy, sedimentology and organic geochemistry. This study is based on the analysis of 128 samples collected from three sections (Oued Bazina, Djebba and Tel Ghozlene) selected from the salt dome zone (SDZ) and one section of Jebel Oust, situated westward of the Tunisian range. This work is supplemented by previous research undertaken on Oued Zarga and Jebel Ammar sections. Taxonomic analysis of previous and new data (ammonites and planktonic foraminifera) indicate that three informal lithological units rich in organic matter (U1, U2 and U3) are of Early Aptian age, covering both Blowiella blowi and Leupoldina cabri planktonic foraminiferal zones and indiscriminate Lowermost Aptian to the Deshayesites deshayesi – Dufrenoyia furcata ammonite Zones interval.The Rock-Eval analytical results indicate that the studied Early Aptian strata are relatively rich in total organic carbon (TOC) content with values reaching 4.6 % within the U3 (Leupoldina cabri biozone). The latter occurring in the different studied sections constitutes an important deepening phase related to a global sea-level rise testified by the development of well laminated platy limestones containing abundant ammonites and radiolaria. This unit (U3), covering Leupoldina cabri planktonic foraminiferal zone and Deshayesites deshayesi to Dufrenoyia furcata ammonite Zones interval records the Oceanic Anoxic Event -1a (OAE-1a).The palynofacies assemblages show that the organic matter is mainly represented by amorphous particles. The Tmax values ranging from 437 °C to 456 °C (Mean Tmax: 446 °C) and the measured vitrinite reflectance ranging from 0.79 to 1.03 %, indicate that most samples are early mature except for those of the Tel Ghozlene (TG) section which are within the peak oil-generation-window. Lateral facies and thickness variation, in addition to the organic matter distribution throughout the studied domains, strongly suggest the imprint of salt tectonics both on the sedimentological pattern and associated anoxia during the Aptian. Maturation of the organic-rich facies occurred during the Upper Cretaceous-Paleogene compressional phase and associated salt dome remobilization. Source rocks, developed in the Upper Member of the M'Cherga Formation, are attributed to the OAE1a Event and should be considered when reviewing the petroleum potential of conventional and unconventional resources in northern Tunisia.

Verification of tidal trends in Cananeia (SP) and Santos (SP)

Recent studies indicate an imminent global rise in mean sea level. However, comprehending variations in tidal patterns is imperative before analyzing the scenario of extreme events, typically associated with the combination of high tides and intense meteorological influences. This study presents local trends in sea level, amplitude, and phase of the two main tidal components in Cananeia (SP) and Santos (SP), utilizing tide gauge data from records of sufficient length to avoid the need for nodal correction in the tide components. Using more up-to-date tide gauge data allowed the investigation of observed trends. Long-term tidal data series revealed an upward trend in mean level of approximately 4,324 mm/year in Cananeia and 0,538 mm/year in Santos. Both locations were affected by human activities along their estuaries, with Santos experiencing significant variations in the amplitude and phase values of the tidal constituents annually.

Sea level rise and extreme events along the Mediterranean coasts: the case of Venice and the awareness of local population, stakeholders and policy makers

Sea level rise (SLR) is among the major climate change effects threating the coasts of the Mediterranean basin, which are increasingly exposed to coastal flooding, especially along the low lying coastal plains, river deltas, lagoons and reclamation areas. Coastal erosion, beach retreat and marine flooding are already causing unprecedented environmental and socio-economic impacts on coastal populations. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) these effects are expected to worsen by 2100 and beyond with a projected global SLR up to about 1 m above the current level. This study provides an overview of the Mediterranean basin, focusing on the vulnerable city of Venice, which is particularly exposed to marine flooding due to SLR and land subsidence. We show the current and future sea level trend as well as a flooding scenarios in the absence of the Experimental Electromechanical Module (MoSE), which is protecting the city of Venice since 2020. To understand the awareness of citizens in Venice to address SLR, we have engaged a group of stakeholders through a structured participatory process to develop solution-oriented, case-specific and site-specific Policy Tools. Our results show that the Policy Tools contain relevant, effective and implementable actions stemming from stakeholder interaction and consensus building, identifying relevant issues that should be considered for SLR adaptation policies. A more extensive participation in public processes is required to materialize the Policy Tools into concrete actions to help vulnerable areas adapt to the expected SLR by the end of this century.

Effects of sea level rise and tidal flat growth on tidal dynamics and geometry of the Elbe estuary

Abstract. Future global mean sea level rise (SLR) will affect coastlines and estuaries in the North Sea and therefore also coastal protection structures, unique local ecosystems and important waterways. SLR will not only raise water levels but also influence tidal dynamics and morphodynamics, which is why the tidal flats of the Wadden Sea can grow to a certain extent with SLR. Investigations on the effects of climate-change-induced SLR and the related potential bathymetric changes inside of estuaries form an important basis for identifying vulnerabilities and developing appropriate adaptation strategies. To analyse the influence of potential SLR and tidal flat elevation scenarios on the tidal dynamics in the Elbe estuary, we used a highly resolved hydrodynamic numerical model of the German Bight. The analysis results show increasing tidal range in the Elbe estuary solely due to SLR. They also reveal strongly varying changes with different tidal flat growth scenarios: while tidal flat elevation up to the mouth of the estuary can cause tidal range to decrease relative to SLR alone, tidal flat elevation in the entire estuary can lead to an increase in tidal range relative to SLR alone. Further analyses show how the geometric parameters of the Elbe estuary are changing due to SLR and tidal flat elevation. We discuss how these changes in estuarine geometry can provide an explanation for the changes in tidal range.

Uncrewed aerial vehicle with onboard winch system for rapid, cost-effective, and safe oceanographic profiling in hazardous and inaccessible areas

Interactions between coastal waters and marine-terminating glaciers in the Polar Regions play a significant role in global sea level rise fueled by a rapidly warming Arctic.The risk of glacier calving, and the abundance of ice, can make it impossible for surface vessels to access the waters near glacier termini. Alternative methods using manned aircraft are expensive. As a result, oceanographic measurements are limited near glacier termini.We present an uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) with an on-board winch system that allows oceanographic profiling in remote, hazardous areas using a commercial conductivity, temperature, and depth (CTD) sensor payload. The UAV is optimized for easy handling and deployment and is capable of high-speed and efficient cruise flight. An autopilot system provides pilot assistance and autonomous flight capabilities. The total weight of the UAV including payload is 6.5 kg with an endurance of 24 min.Testing of the system was conducted in South Greenland during winter conditions in March 2023 with successful profiles collected near a glacier terminus (<5 m) and in small openings in ice mélange (2.2 m). The system proved capable, reliable, and efficient. Further development of the system will allow other sensors for an even more flexible measurement suite.

Inferring Global Ocean Mass Increase From Tide Gauges Network With Climate Models

AbstractOcean mass increase contributes to global sea level rise, and plays an important role in understanding climate change. Here, we develop a data assimilation approach that enables the inference of ocean mass increase from global tide gauge network. This approach incorporates outputs from climate models and sea level fingerprints caused by water mass changes over land areas. The results suggest a trend of 2.15 ± 0.72 mm/yr for ocean mass increase over the period 1993–2022, which closes the global sea level budget with estimates of thermosteric sea level rise. Furthermore, the inferred ocean mass increase offers an insight into the causes of sea level rise since 1950. These findings emphasize the significance of climate models, in addition to simulating sea level changes, they contribute to understanding causes of sea level rise over the past decades.

Acoustic observations of individual bubble release events from melting glacier ice in an arctic fjord

Melting below the waterline of marine-terminating glaciers and ice sheets has the potential to remove ice that is holding back land-based ice upstream, and increase the rate of global mean sea level rise. It is difficult to observe this melting directly, and the physical processes involved remain an active area of study. As glacier ice melts, the air bubbles trapped in the ice are released into the water. The air bubbles are often at greater pressure than the surrounding hydrostatic pressure in the water, causing them to be released explosively and generate sound through resulting monopole oscillations. Studying this sound at the level of individual bubbles provides an opportunity to learn more about the role of the bubbles in affecting heat flux across the ice-water boundary layer. It is also essential for proposed efforts to use acoustic emissions as a tool to quantify glacier-scale submarine melting. We will present and discuss observations made at the ice-water interface of floating pieces of glacier ice in an Arctic fjord. These observations included measurements of the water thermal structure, velocity, and salinity, as well as ablation of the ice face, made concurrently with acoustic measurements of bubble release pulses from a 2-element hydrophone array.

Sea Level Rise, Land Subsidence, and Flood Disaster Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study in Medan City, Indonesia

Global sea level rise (SLR) has emerged as a pressing concern because of its impacts, especially increased vulnerability of coastal urban areas flooding. This study addresses the pressing concern of SLR and flood vulnerability in the East Coast of North Sumatra (ECNS) and Medan City. We employ a data-driven approach integrating multicriteria analysis, analytical hierarchy process (AHP)-based weighting, and spatial modeling within a geographic information system framework. The analysis considers crucial factors such as slope, land use, soil type, SLR, and land deformation. The study expands the existing framework by incorporating SLR and land subsidence, acknowledging their significant roles in exacerbating flood vulnerability. Future flood-intensity scenarios are simulated based on SLR projections. Data for spatial analysis primarily originated from multisensor satellite imagery, secondary sources from published literature, and field surveys. We validated the consistency of the variable weightings assigned for vulnerability analysis using a consistency ratio threshold (&lt;0.1). Finally, the established flood vulnerability model was validated by comparing its predictions with recorded flood events in the ECNS and Medan City. The ECNS and Medan City areas were classified as very high and highly vulnerable to flooding, respectively.

Reconstruction of hourly coastal water levels and counterfactuals without sea level rise for impact attribution

Abstract. Rising seas are a threat to human and natural systems along coastlines. The relation between global warming and sea level rise is established, but the quantification of impacts of historical sea level rise on a global scale is largely absent. To foster such quantification, here we present a reconstruction of historical hourly (1979–2015) and monthly (1900–2015) coastal water levels and a corresponding counterfactual without long-term trends in sea level. The dataset pair allows for impact attribution studies that quantify the contribution of sea level rise to observed changes in coastal systems following the definition of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Impacts are ultimately caused by water levels that are relative to the local land height, which makes the inclusion of vertical land motion a necessary step. Also, many impacts are driven by sub-daily extreme water levels. To capture these aspects, the factual data combine reconstructed geocentric sea level on a monthly timescale since 1900, vertical land motion since 1900 and hourly storm-tide variations since 1979. The inclusion of observation-based vertical land motion brings the trends of the combined dataset closer to tide gauge records in most cases, but outliers remain. Daily maximum water levels get in closer agreement with tide gauges through the inclusion of intra-annual ocean density variations. The counterfactual data are derived from the factual data through subtraction of the quadratic trend. The dataset is made available openly through the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) at https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.749905 (Treu et al., 2023a).

Subsurface warming in the Antarctica’s Weddell Sea can be avoided by reaching the 2∘C warming target

Recently, seasonal pulses of modified Warm Deep Water have been observed near the Filchner Ice Shelf front in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Here, we investigate the temperature evolution of subsurface waters in the Filchner Trough under four future scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions using the climate model AWI-CM. Our model simulates these warm intrusions, suggests more frequent pulses in a warmer climate, and supports the potential for a regime shift from cold to warm Filchner Trough in two high-emission scenarios. The regime shift is governed in particular by decreasing local sea ice formation and a shoaling thermocline. Cavity circulation is not critical in triggering the change. Consequences would include increased ice shelf basal melting, reduced buttressing of fast-flowing ice streams, loss of grounded ice and an acceleration of global sea level rise. According to our simulations, the regime shift can be avoided and the Filchner Trough warming can be restricted to 0.5 ∘C by reaching the 2 ∘C climate goal.

Modeling a Century of Change: Kangerlussuaq Glacier's Mass Loss From 1933 to 2021

AbstractKangerlussuaq Glacier (KG) is a major contributor to central‐eastern Greenland mass loss, but existing estimates of its mass balance over the last century are inconsistent, and specific drivers of change remain poorly understood. We present a novel approach that combines numerical modeling and a 1933–2021 climate forcing to reconstruct its mass balance over the past century. The model's final state aligns remarkably well with present‐day observations. The model reveals a total ice mass loss of 285 Gt over the past century, equivalent to 0.68 mm global sea level rise, 51% of which occurred since 2003 alone. Dynamic thinning from ice front retreat is responsible for 88% of mass change since 1933, with short‐term ice front variations having minimal impact on centennial mass loss. Compared to earlier studies, our findings suggest that KG lost 59% (or 301 Gt) less mass over the century than previously thought.