Posteriori Probability Distribution Research Articles

The a posteriori probability of the number of contributors when conditioned on an assumed contributor

Forensic DNA signal is notoriously challenging to assess, requiring computational tools to support its interpretation. Over-expressions of stutter, allele drop-out, allele drop-in, degradation, differential degradation, and the like, make forensic DNA profiles too complicated to evaluate by manual methods. In response, computational tools that make point estimates on the Number of Contributors (NOC) to a sample have been developed, as have Bayesian methods that evaluate an A Posteriori Probability (APP) distribution on the NOC. In cases where an overly narrow NOC range is assumed, the downstream strength of evidence may be incomplete insofar as the evidence is evaluated with an inadequate set of propositions.In the current paper, we extend previous work on NOCIt, a Bayesian method that determines an APP on the NOC given an electropherogram, by reporting on an implementation where the user can add assumed contributors. NOCIt is a continuous system that incorporates models of peak height (including degradation and differential degradation), forward and reverse stutter, noise, and allelic drop-out, while being cognizant of allele frequencies in a reference population. When conditioned on a known contributor, we found that the mode of the APP distribution can shift to one greater when compared with the circumstance where no known contributor is assumed, and that occurred most often when the assumed contributor was the minor constituent to the mixture.In a development of a result of Slooten and Caliebe (FSI:G, 2018) that, under suitable assumptions, establishes the NOC can be treated as a nuisance variable in the computation of a likelihood ratio between the prosecution and defense hypotheses, we show that this computation must not only use coincident models, but also coincident contextual information. The results reported here, therefore, illustrate the power of modern probabilistic systems to assess full weights-of-evidence, and to provide information on reasonable NOC ranges across multiple contexts.

The upper bound of multi-source DOA information in sensor array and its application in performance evaluation

Direction of arrival (DOA) estimation has been discussed extensively in the array signal processing field. In this paper, the authors focus on the multi-source DOA information which is defined as the mutual information between the DOA and the received signal contaminated by complex additive white Gaussian noise. A theoretical expression of DOA information with multiple sources is derived for the uniform linear array. At high SNRs and under the sparse-source assumption obtained is the upper bound of DOA information contained in K sparse sources which can be regarded as the sum of all single-source information minus the uncertainty of sources’ order logK!. Moreover, because of the uncertainty of multi-sources’ order, the posteriori probability distribution of DOA no longer obeys single peak Gaussian distribution so that the mean square error is unsuitable in evaluating the performance of multi-dimensional parameter estimation. Consequently, entropy error (EE) is used as a new performance evaluation metric, whose relationship with DOA information is given.

A large-scale validation of NOCIt’s a posteriori probability of the number of contributors and its integration into forensic interpretation pipelines

Forensic DNA signal is notoriously challenging to interpret and requires the implementation of computational tools that support its interpretation. While data from high-copy, low-contributor samples result in electropherogram signal that is readily interpreted by probabilistic methods, electropherogram signal from forensic stains is often garnered from low-copy, high-contributor-number samples and is frequently obfuscated by allele sharing, allele drop-out, stutter and noise. Since forensic DNA profiles are too complicated to quantitatively assess by manual methods, continuous, probabilistic frameworks that draw inferences on the Number of Contributors (NOC) and compute the Likelihood Ratio (LR) given the prosecution’s and defense’s hypotheses have been developed.In the current paper, we validate a new version of the NOCIt inference platform that determines an A Posteriori Probability (APP) distribution of the number of contributors given an electropherogram. NOCIt is a continuous inference system that incorporates models of peak height (including degradation and differential degradation), forward and reverse stutter, noise and allelic drop-out while taking into account allele frequencies in a reference population. We established the algorithm’s performance by conducting tests on samples that were representative of types often encountered in practice. In total, we tested NOCIt’s performance on 815 degraded, UV-damaged, inhibited, differentially degraded, or uncompromised DNA mixture samples containing up to 5 contributors. We found that the model makes accurate, repeatable and reliable inferences about the NOCs and significantly outperformed methods that rely on signal filtering.By leveraging recent theoretical results of Slooten and Caliebe (FSI:G, 2018) that, under suitable assumptions, establish the NOC can be treated as a nuisance variable, we demonstrated that when NOCIt’s APP is used in conjunction with a downstream likelihood ratio (LR) inference system that employs the same probabilistic model, a full evaluation across multiple contributor numbers is rendered. This work, therefore, illustrates the power of modern probabilistic systems to report holistic and interpretable weights-of-evidence to the trier-of-fact without assigning a specified number of contributors or filtering signal.

Uncertainty analysis for infrasound waveform inversion: Application to explosion yield estimation.

While the acoustic waveform inversion method is increasingly used in geophysical acoustics to constrain source parameters, the inversion results are often provided without any uncertainty analysis. This study presents a probabilistic representation for acoustic waveform inversion and method to evaluate the inversion uncertainty using ground-truth data. A posteriori probability distribution of source estimate is described by a priori waveform misfit covariance and the variance of acoustic source model. The probabilistic framework is applied to local explosion infrasound to estimate the yields of explosions and uncertainty. Estimated yields showed overall good agreement with the true yields (less than 25% errors). The uncertainty of the estimated yield is represented by the sum of the waveform inversion uncertainty and source model uncertainty. It is shown that the yield uncertainty attributed to local infrasound inversion (within 10 km) is as small as the uncertainty caused by 10% prediction errors in the acoustic source model. These results indicate that the acoustic source model uncertainty should also be considered for accurate yield estimation and that local infrasound can be a valuable tool to understand the magnitude of the source uncertainty.

Dim moving target tracking algorithm based on particle discriminative sparse representation

The small dim moving target usually submerged in strong noise, and its motion observability is debased by numerous false alarms for low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). A target tracking algorithm based on particle filter and discriminative sparse representation is proposed in this paper to cope with the uncertainty of dim moving target tracking. The weight of every particle is the crucial factor to ensuring the accuracy of dim target tracking for particle filter (PF) that can achieve excellent performance even under the situation of non-linear and non-Gaussian motion. In discriminative over-complete dictionary constructed according to image sequence, the target dictionary describes target signal and the background dictionary embeds background clutter. The difference between target particle and background particle is enhanced to a great extent, and the weight of every particle is then measured by means of the residual after reconstruction using the prescribed number of target atoms and their corresponding coefficients. The movement state of dim moving target is then estimated and finally tracked by these weighted particles. Meanwhile, the subspace of over-complete dictionary is updated online by the stochastic estimation algorithm. Some experiments are induced and the experimental results show the proposed algorithm could improve the performance of moving target tracking by enhancing the consistency between the posteriori probability distribution and the moving target state.

Bayesian Inference of Models and Hyperparameters for Robust Optical-Flow Estimation

Selecting optimal models and hyperparameters is crucial for accurate optical-flow estimation. This paper provides a solution to the problem in a generic Bayesian framework. The method is based on a conditional model linking the image intensity function, the unknown velocity field, hyperparameters, and the prior and likelihood motion models. Inference is performed on each of the three levels of this so-defined hierarchical model by maximization of marginalized a posteriori probability distribution functions. In particular, the first level is used to achieve motion estimation in a classical a posteriori scheme. By marginalizing out the motion variable, the second level enables to infer regularization coefficients and hyperparameters of non-Gaussian M-estimators commonly used in robust statistics. The last level of the hierarchy is used for selection of the likelihood and prior motion models conditioned to the image data. The method is evaluated on image sequences of fluid flows and from the "Middlebury" database. Experiments prove that applying the proposed inference strategy yields better results than manually tuning smoothing parameters or discontinuity preserving cost functions of the state-of-the-art methods.

Hierarchical Bayesian inference for Ill-posed problems via variational method

This paper investigates a novel approximate Bayesian inference procedure for numerically solving inverse problems. A hierarchical formulation which determines automatically the regularization parameter and the noise level together with the inverse solution is adopted. The framework is of variational type, and it can deliver the inverse solution and regularization parameter together with their uncertainties calibrated. It approximates the posteriori probability distribution by separable distributions based on Kullback–Leibler divergence. Two approximations are derived within the framework, and some theoretical properties, e.g. variance estimate and consistency, are also provided. Algorithms for their efficient numerical realization are described, and their convergence properties are also discussed. Extensions to nonquadratic regularization/nonlinear forward models are also briefly studied. Numerical results for linear and nonlinear Cauchy-type problems arising in heat conduction with both smooth and nonsmooth solutions are presented for the proposed method, and compared with that by Markov chain Monte Carlo. The results illustrate that the variational method can faithfully capture the posteriori distribution in a computationally efficient way.