Post-earthquake Debris Flows Research Articles

Evaluating the thresholds for predicting post-earthquake debris flows: Comparison of meteorological, hydro-meteorological and critical discharge approaches

Post-earthquake debris flows pose significant hazards in mountainous regions following large seismic events. Evaluating the thresholds for predicting the occurrence of these flows is crucial. However, the absenting of comparison for different predicting methods hampers progress in improving and updating predictions for debris flows. In this study, based on on-site measurements of post-earthquake debris flows in an active catchment during the first year following the 2022 Luding Ms6.8 earthquake, 30 debris-flow events were identified and observed. We established and compared three distinct methods—namely, the meteorological approach, the hydro-meteorological approach, and the critical discharge approach for predicting the occurrence of post-earthquake debris flows. Additionally, we introduced a factor called absolute energy to improve the accuracy of the traditional meteorological approach. Absolute energy is defined as the sum of squared values within a time series. Our findings indicate that the hydro-meteorological model outperforms others in predicting post-earthquake debris flows, whereas the meteorological approaches especially the intensity–duration (I–D) thresholds exhibit suboptimal performance. Furthermore, the updated meteorological model incorporating absolute energy demonstrates improved predictive capability compared to traditional meteorological approaches like intensity–duration (I–D) thresholds. We argue that this comparative analysis will aid in selecting the suitable method for predicting post-earthquake debris flows.

Identifying the Characteristics and Implications of Post-Earthquake Debris Flow Events Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing Images

Strong earthquakes often bring amounts of loose material, disrupting the balance of material transportation within a watershed and severely impacting the restoration of the ecological environment and human safety downstream. Therefore, it is crucial to identify the frequency and scale of these debris flow events, as well as to explore their long-term development and impact on internal and external channels. Using multi-source remote sensing images from four perspectives, hillslope, channel, accumulation fan, and their relationship with the mainstream, we reconstructed a debris flow event dataset from 2008 to 2020, explored a method for identifying these events, and analyzed their impacts on channels and accumulation fans in Mozi Gully affected by the Wenchuan earthquake. Loose matter was predominantly found in areas proximate to the channel and at lower elevations during debris flow events. Alterations in channel width, accumulation fans downstream, and their potential to obstruct rivers proved to be vital for identifying the large scale of debris flow event. Finally, we encapsulated the evolution patterns and constraints of post-earthquake debris flows. Determination in frequency and scale could offer valuable supplementary data for scenario hypothesis parameters in post-earthquake disaster engineering prevention and control.

Variation in Debris-Flow-Prone Areas with Ecosystem Stability: A Case Study of the Qipan Catchment in the Wenchuan Earthquake Region

The spatial distribution of vegetation in a basin has a far-reaching influence on the potential for sediment separation and transport capacity. However, many landslides induced by strong earthquakes have greatly changed the existing pattern, which further increases the probability of debris flow in a basin during heavy rainfall and has a significant impact on the stability of the basin. Thus, this study selected the debris flow basin in the Qipan catchment of the Wenchuan earthquake area as the research object. Multisource and high-precision remote sensing images were used to analyze the land use changes in the basin, and the index of connectivity (IC) was introduced to analyze the evolution of sediment transport capacity. An ecosystem stability assessment method suitable for post-earthquake debris flow basins was proposed. Through quantitative assessment of the ecosystem stability of the basin after the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and the two debris flow events after the earthquake, the dynamic relationship between the debris-flow-prone area and the ecosystem stability of the basin was revealed. The results showed that the stability of the ecosystem in the Qipan catchment increased annually, indicating a stable and substable state. The spatial distribution characteristics were lower in the north and south and greater in the middle. By comparing the evaluation results with the actual terrain change trend, the accuracy and feasibility of the evaluation method are verified. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for the formulation of regional disaster prevention strategies and help to accelerate the improvement of regional stability in debris-flow-prone areas.

Analysis of the Occurrent Models of Potential Debris-Flow Sources in the Watershed of Ching-Shuei River

The areas around the Ching-Shuei River saw numerous landslides (2004–2017) after the Jiji earthquake, profoundly harming the watershed’s geological environment. The 33 catchment areas in the Ching-Shuei River watershed and five typhoon and rainstorm events, with a total of 165 occurrences and non-occurrences, were analyzed, and the training and validation were categorized into 70% training and 30% validation. A landslide disaster is deemed, for the purposes of this research, to have taken place if SPOT satellite images taken before and after an incident show a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index difference larger than 0.25, a slope of less than 30 degrees, and a number of connected grids greater than 10. The analysis was carried out using the instability index method analysis with Rogers regression analysis and artificial neural network. The accuracy rates of neural network, logit regression, and instability index analyses were, respectively, 93.3%, 80.6%, and 70.9%. The neural network’s area under the curve was 0.933, indicating excellent discrimination ability; that of the logit regression analysis was 0.794, which is considered good; and that of the instability index analysis was 0.635, or fair. This suggests that any of the three models are suitable for the danger assessment of large post-earthquake debris flows. The results of this study also provide a reference and evidence for specific sites’ potential susceptibility to debris flows.

Spatio-temporal mapping and long-term evolution of debris flow activity after a high magnitude earthquake

A high-magnitude earthquake can trigger substantial amounts of co-seismic debris and unstable hillslopes in mountainous regions, which leads to a significant increase in the frequency and magnitude of post-earthquake debris flows. The long-term impacts of earthquakes on the debris flow activity have not been fully understood, primarily because of a lack of multi-temporal mapping inventories of debris flow activity. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of debris flow activities and their driving factors after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake for disaster risk management and mitigation from a dynamic perspective. We used the fusion of remote sensing data to develop the first systematic multi-temporal inventory of debris flow activity to quantify changes in spatial and temporal activity of post-earthquake debris flows from 2008 to 2021. Subsequently, we examined the control of material sources, topographic and hydrological factors on the evolution of post-earthquake debris flow activities. A close relationship between the decline in debris flow activity and the reduced active material sources was observed in both time and space, so the supply capacity of hillslope deposits after the earthquake was the first-order indicator controlling post-earthquake debris flow activity. With the progressive depletion and stabilization of co-seismic landslide materials over time, topographic and hydrological factors occupied a dominant role in the occurrence of debris flow. In general, an oscillatory decay pattern of debris flow activity over time was observed after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. We observed that the period of post-earthquake debris flow activity varied considerably in different regions attributed to the magnitude of the earthquake, and the geological and climatic environments. Based on the debris flow channel disturbances, the dynamic evolution of landslide materials and hydrodynamics, we divided the debris flow active period after the Wenchuan earthquake into three phases: high activity period (lasting 2 ∼ 5 years), medium activity period (lasting 3 ∼ 10 years), and low activity period (lasting 9 ∼ 18 years). Following the above three activity periods, the debris flow activity will evolve into a steady period. We also proposed a quantitative model for debris flow activeness in the main Wenchuan earthquake-affected area, which predicts that the activeness of debris flows will tend to pre-earthquake levels in 46 years following the earthquake.

Grain-size variability in debris flows of different runout lengths, Wenchuan, China

Debris-flow grain-size distributions (GSDs) control runout length and mobility. Wide, bimodal GSDs and those containing a higher proportion of silt and clay have been shown experimentally to increase runout length. However, the relationship between grain size and mobility has not been well established in field conditions. Here, we compared the grain-size characteristics of two debris flows with considerably different runout lengths (1.5 km vs. 8 km) to understand the role of grain size in governing runout. The two debris flows were triggered in the same rainfall event from coseismic landslide debris generated in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in catchments with similar lithology and topography. We compared the deposited GSDs and their spatial patterns using our rare, three-dimensional GSD datasets. Surprisingly, the proportions of each size fraction deposited by the two flows were statistically indistinguishable. The spatial pattern of grain size differed between the two flows, with evidence of inverse grading only preserved in the smaller deposit. From these observations, we can infer that the GSDs of both flows were determined by the coseismic landslide source material, and that there was little difference in the GSDs of material entrained as the flows bulked. The contrasting spatial distributions of grains indicated that different internal processes were dominant within the two flows. These findings demonstrate that where GSDs are dominated by coarse grains and are governed by similar source conditions, grain size plays a lesser role relative to sediment supply and hydrology in controlling the runout length of large catastrophic post-earthquake debris flows.

Spatial and temporal evolution of long-term debris flow activity and the dynamic influence of condition factors in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area, Sichuan, China

In recent decades, there have been several extreme earthquakes around the world, with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake resulting in the highest number of landslides and substantial deposition of loose material on steep terrain and deep gullies, thereby promoting post-earthquake debris flows. Our monitoring indicates that debris flows have become long-term threats for over a decade after the earthquake, and it is crucial to determine the long-term spatial and temporal changes of debris flows and the evolving influence of condition factors in the earthquake-affected area. Thus, we established a database of 1628 debris flow events occurring between 2000 and 2020 within the 31,627 km2 area affected by the Wenchuan earthquake. The database included information on the date of occurrence, GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) coordinate at the gully outlet, event washout volume, and scale level obtained from various sources. Post-seismic debris flow activity witnessed a significant increase, followed by oscillation with rainfall and gradual weakening. Using the average washout volume for each scale in different periods, we applied a grid calculation method to characterize the debris flow intensity (DFI) using the total debris flow volume of cells in different epochs to study the spatial and temporal evolution of debris flow activity. Thus, based on the DFI calculation, we introduced the certainty factor and Geodetector to determine the dynamic evolution of condition factors. Our results indicate that lithology, rainfall, and slope degree primarily controlled debris flows before the earthquake. However, coseismic landslides became the main promoting factor after the earthquake. As loose materials were consumed, hydrodynamic and topographic factors began to play a more significant role in controlling debris flows. During this process, the requirements for rainfall, slope degree, and terrain relief amplitude increased over time. Based on the annual volume of debris flows from 2000 to 2020, we developed a preliminary conceptual model, which indicated that post-earthquake debris flow activity can be categorized into three phases: active (2008–2013), unstable (2014–2033), and recession (2034–2045), with the debris flow activity anticipated to return to pre-earthquake levels by 2045.

Modelling the evolution of debris flows after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

Strong earthquakes can trigger extensive landslides, generating abundant loose deposits that are prone to be remobilized as debris flows by subsequent rainfall events. The magnitude-frequency distribution of post-earthquake debris flows often changes significantly over time. However, the key parameters controlling the post-earthquake debris flow activity and magnitude were poorly understood. In this study, we selected a representative catchment in the Wenchuan earthquake-hit region to study the activity of debris flows from 2008 to 2020, as well as the changes in parameters due to material depletion, grain size coarsening and vegetation recovery. Samples were collected from the field in different years after the earthquake and were tested in the laboratory to obtain their geotechnical properties. A numerical model was improved by considering the changing properties to fit better to dynamic conditions after the earthquake. We found that the particle size of the loose material gradually coarsened, the shear strength showed an increasing trend, while the erodibility coefficient of loose material showed a decreasing trend. The evolution of these parameters controlled the magnitude-frequency of post-earthquake debris flows and also changed their behavior from slope failures in the first few years after the earthquake to concentrated surface runoff erosion (channel erosion) in later years. The results have an important implication for risk assessment and prediction of future debris flows in earthquake-prone regions.

Characteristics of Debris Flow Activities at Different Scales after the Disturbance of Strong Earthquakes—A Case Study of the Wenchuan Earthquake-Affected Area

Of the catastrophic earthquakes over the past few decades, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered the greatest number of landslides and deposited a large amount of loose material on steep terrains and deep gullies, which was highly conducive to the occurrence of post-earthquake debris flows. It is of great importance to clarify the evolution of debris flow activity for hazard evaluation, prediction, and prevention after a strong earthquake, especially in the face of large debris flow hazards. We established a long-time span database consisting of 1668 debris flow events before and after the earthquake, with information including the occurrence time, location, and scale (small, medium, and large). In order to analyze how the environmental background before and after the earthquake controlled the debris flow activity, we examined various controlling factors, including the material source, topography (relative relief and slope degree), rainfall, normalized vegetation index, and lithology. After completing the analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution of the debris flow events in the database, a 10 × 10 km grid was introduced to grade the controlling factors in ArcGIS. Based on the same grid, the density of debris flow events for each scale in different time periods was calculated and graded. We introduced the certainty factor to figure out the spatial–temporal relationships between debris flow activities at each scale and the controlling factors. The results can provide guidance on how to dynamically adjust our strategies for debris flow prevention after a strong earthquake. Lastly, Spearman rank correlation analysis was performed to clarify the variation in the magnitude of the influence of controlling factors on the debris flow activities of different scales with time. This can provide a reference for the dynamic evaluation of debris flow hazards in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area.

Characteristics, Dynamic Analyses and Hazard Assessment of Debris Flows in Niumiangou Valley of Wenchuan County

Niumiangou valley, the epicenter of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (MS 8.0), became an area with frequent and dense debris flow disasters post-earthquake. Based on the in situ investigations after the earthquake on 14 August 2010 and a series of gathered data, characteristics and dynamic analyses of post-earthquake debris flows in Niumiangou valley were conducted, and then their hazard degree was assessed. Some research conclusions are obtained: (1) these post-earthquake debris flows have some typical characteristics, such as rainstorm viscous-type debris flow, happening usually between 11 p.m. and 5 a.m., broken out in the main channel as well as six branch gullies at the same time and also induced in the branches with good vegetation; (2) the dynamic parameters of Niumiangou debris flow (including volumetric weight, velocity, peak discharge, impact force, total amount of debris flow, total amount of solid materials washed out by single debris flow, maximum height of the debris flow rises and super elevation in bend) are relatively significant, and due to which it can be indicated that these debris flow disasters have great destructive power and harmfulness; (3) the hazard degree of debris flow in Niumiangou valley is very high, compared with the debris flows that occurred in the years of 2008 and 2013 in Niumiangou valley post-Wenchuan earthquake, and the comparison result shows that the hazard degree of debris flow in Niumiangou valley is relatively higher, which is consistent with the current situation. Therefore, according to these results, debris flows in Niumiangou valley are in the development phase and large-scale rainfall-induced debris flow disasters, with greater damage and stronger wallop, will easily occur in the rainy seasons of the 20 years after the earthquake.

Evaluating the post-earthquake landslides sediment supply capacity for debris flows

Earthquake-triggered landslides provide sufficient loose material for the formation of subsequent debris flow events in earthquake-affected catchments. The landslides sediment supply capacity (SSC) for debris flows plays an important role in post-earthquake sediment transportation, which is influenced by landslide location during different post-earthquake periods. In this study, the logarithmic slope–area diagram was used to distinguish hillslope and channel processes in catchments affected by the Wenchuan earthquake, adopting a threshold between hillslopes and channels set at 1 km2. In comparison with the existing structural sediment delivery ratio (SDR), it was found that the SSC assessed using the SDR showed a decreasing trend of power exponent as distance increased, effectively eliminating the impact of earthquake-triggered sediment supply. To efficiently assess the SSC of post-earthquake landslides for debris flows, we proposed a novel dimensionless index, namely Mean Landslide Sediment Delivery Ratio (MLSDR), by considering the impact of earthquakes and eliminating the impact of catchment area. It was found that, the SSC of coseismic landslides assessed by the MLSDR in catchments affected by the Wenchuan earthquake could better reflect seismic impact, with higher values concentrated along the seismogenic fault of the earthquake, thereby highlighting the satisfactory applicability of the method in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area. Moreover, it was found that the proposed index had a reasonable corresponding relationship with debris flow development in Wenchuan earthquake-affected catchments, mainly for values of 0.2 ≤ MLSDRout ≤ 2.25 and 0.3 ≤ MLSDRchannel ≤ 4.5, which could help identify potential debris flow development. The controlling factors of long-term changes in coseismic and post-earthquake SSC in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected region were assessed. It was found that SSC was controlled by earthquakes during first three years and subsequently controlled by precipitation and grain composition. This study will strengthen the understandings of the long-term evolution of post-earthquake debris flow.

Two multi-temporal datasets to track debris flow after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

We provide two datasets for tracking the debris flow induced by the 2008 Wenchuan Mw 7.9 earthquake on a section of the Longmen mountains on the eastern side of the Tibetan plateau (Sichuan, China). The database was obtained through a literature review and field survey reports in the epicenter area, combined with high-resolution remote sensing image and extensive data collection and processing. The first dataset covers an area of 892 km2, including debris flows from 2008 to 2020 (an updated version). 186 debris flows affecting 79 watersheds were identified. 89 rainfall stations were collected to determine the rainfall events for the post-earthquake debris flow outbreak. The second database is a list of mitigation measures for post-earthquake debris flows, including catchment name, check dam number, coordinates, construction time, and successful mitigation date. The datasets can aid different applications, including the early warning and engineering prevention of post-earthquake debris flow, as well as provide valuable data support for research in related disciplines.

The starting mechanism study on rainfall-induced sloop loose source in strong earthquake area

The 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 led to a large number of loose deposits on the slope on both sides of the gully in the formation area. Under the triggering action of heavy rainfall, the previously unrecognized slope loose source in formation areas easily failed and started earlier than the overall start of the gully debris flow, which has practical significance for realizing the early warning of the gully debris flow starting. The special loose source conditions and postearthquake geological environment change the hydraulic mechanism of traditional debris flow start-up, which brings great difficulties to the monitoring and early warning of postearthquake debris flows. Therefore, based on hydraulics, on the premise of building a hydraulic model of groundwater level change of loose slope accumulation body, the characteristics and rules of groundwater level change are analyzed with the aid of hydraulic seepage theories, and the action characteristics of hydrodynamic pressure and hydrostatic pressure on the accumulation body are quantitatively studied. Based on field exploration data and average slope gradient, we divided the accumulation body in a reasonable manner; completed the sliding force, anti-sliding force and residual-sliding force mechanical expression and establishment; and performed a slope stability analysis. The research results show that the slope starting mode is divided into the thrust-type landslide and the retrogressive landslide mode of the subsection disintegration. The hydraulic deposit mechanism analytical results can also reverse the critical rainfall condition of slope failure. Finally, taking the Yindongzi gully in Dujiangyan as an example, the hydraulic mechanism of typical slope deposits in the formation area was analyzed and combined with the historical debris flow events in the study area to verify the physical simulation test, which was consistent with the field investigation results after the disaster.

Engineering Planning Method and Control Modes for Debris Flow Disasters in Scenic Areas

Compared with debris flows in other areas, debris flows in scenic areas not only seriously threaten residents, tourists, roads, walkways, and other infrastructure, but also cause considerable damage to the landscapes and ecosystems of these areas. Extreme rainfall events in the future will increase the complexities and challenges involved in debris flow control in scenic areas. Currently, the systematic planning of the entire scenic area is not considered in the treatment of debris flows. It is not possible to realize the rapid planning of any debris flow gully control project in a scenic area and to quantify the volume of debris flow material retained by each engineering structure. Based on field investigations and data collected from debris flow control projects in gullies in Jiuzhaigou Valley, China, an engineering planning method for debris flow control projects in scenic areas is herein proposed, and the challenges confronting existing control projects in scenic areas are discussed. Moreover, based on the example of Jiuzhaigou Valley, corresponding control engineering schemes for debris flow gullies in Xiajijie Lake Gully, Zhuozhui Gully, Xuan Gully, Pingshitou Gully, and West-Zhuozhui Gully are formulated. Four control modes for debris flow disasters in scenic areas are proposed, namely, “blocking + deposit stopping,” “deposit stopping,” “blocking,” and “drainage + deposit stopping,” which provide a systematic control strategy for post-earthquake debris flow disaster management in Jiuzhaigou Valley and other similar scenic areas.

Numerical simulation on post-earthquake debris flows: A case study of the Chutou gully in Wenchuan, China

Since the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, post-earthquake debris flows have severely threatened people’s lives and the safety of public transit facilities, making particularly crucial to understand their formation mechanism. We focused on the Chutou gully debris flow and analyzed its formation mechanism based on field investigations and satellite images. The main inducing factor of this debris flow was a continuous heavy rainfall that exceeded the threshold of the study area: this, combined with the large amount of loose material created by the earthquake, dramatically promoted the volume and hazard degree of the debris flow. The three-dimensional debris flow simulation software RAMMS, based on an improved Voellmy–Salm fluid model, was used to simulate the movement process of the Chutou gully debris flow. The calibrated Coulomb friction (μ) and viscous turbulent friction (ξ) coefficients in the study area were 0.225 and 180 m/s2, respectively. The simulation results revealed the post-earthquake debris flow mechanism in terms of flow height, velocity, flow rate, and deposition area. The results of the numerical simulation were in good agreement with those of the field investigations. In particular, it was found that the peak flow of debris flow upstream of the Chutou gully was shorter in duration than the one upstream; however, due to the convergence of the branch gully, the downstream peak flow of debris flow increased significantly, while a large amount of solid material stranded downstream of the channel. Notably, this process is prone to occur again. This study proposes a new post-earthquake debris flow evaluation method, and its results are of reference value for the design of debris flow prevention engineering in meizoseismal areas.

A hybrid machine-learning model to estimate potential debris-flow volumes

Empirical-statistical models of debris-flow are challenging to implement in environments where sedimentary and hydrologic triggering processes change through time, such as after a large earthquake. The flexible and adaptive statistical methods provided by machine learning algorithms may improve the quality of debris flow predictions where triggering conditions and the nature of sediment that can bulk flows varies with time. We developed a hybrid machine-learning model of future debris-flow volumes using a dataset of measured debris-flow volumes from 60 catchments that generated post-Wenchuan Earthquake (Mw 7.9) debris flows. We input topographic variables (catchment area, topographic relief, channel length, distance from seismic fault, and average channel gradient) and the total volume of co-seismic landslide debris into the PSO-ELM_AdaBoost machine-learning model, created by combining Extreme learning machine (ELM), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and adaptive boosting machine learning algorithm (AdaBoost). The model was trained and tested using post-2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake debris flows, then applied to understand potential volumes of post-earthquake debris flows associated with other regional earthquakes (2013 Mw 6.6 Lushan Earthquake, 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu Earthquake). We compared the PSO-ELM_Adaboost method with different machine learning methods, including back-propagation neural network (BPNN), support vector machine (SVM), ELM, PSO-ELM. The Comparative analysis demonstrated that the PSO-ELM_Adaboost method has a higher statistical validity and prediction accuracy with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) less than 0.10. The prediction accuracy of debris-flow volumes trigged by other earthquakes decreases to 0.11–0.16 (absolute percentage error), suggesting that once calibrated for a region this method can be applied to other regional earthquakes. This model may be useful for engineering design to mitigate the risk of large post-earthquake debris flows.

Characteristics of a Debris Flow Disaster and Its Mitigation Countermeasures in Zechawa Gully, Jiuzhaigou Valley, China

On 8 August 2017, an Ms 7.0 earthquake struck Jiuzhaigou Valley, triggering abundant landslides and providing a huge source of material for potential debris flows. After the earthquake debris flows were triggered by heavy rainfall, causing traffic disruption and serious property losses. This study aims to describe the debris flow events in Zechawa Gully, calculate the peak discharges of the debris flows, characterize the debris flow disasters, propose mitigation countermeasures to control these disasters and analyse the effectiveness of countermeasures that were implemented in May 2019. The results showed the following: (1) The frequency of the debris flows in Zechawa Gully with small- and medium-scale will increase due to the influence of the Ms 7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. (2) An accurate debris flow peak discharge can be obtained by comparing the calculated results of four different methods. (3) The failure of a check dam in the channel had an amplification effect on the peak discharge, resulting in a destructive debris flow event on 4 August 2016. Due to the disaster risk posed by dam failure, both blocking and deposit stopping measures should be adopted for debris flow mitigation. (4) Optimized engineering countermeasures with blocking and deposit stopping measures were proposed and implemented in May 2019 based on the debris flow disaster characteristics of Zechawa Gully, and the reconstructed engineering projects were effective in controlling a post-earthquake debris flow disaster on 21 June 2019.

Identifying post-earthquake debris flow hazard using Massflow

Catastrophic debris flows are common after large earthquakes and pose a significant risk for recovering communities. The depositional volume of these large debris flows is often much greater than the initiation volume, suggesting that bulking of the flow plays an important role in determining their volume, speed, and runout distance. Observations from recent earthquakes have driven progress in understanding the relationship between triggering rainfall events and the timing of post-earthquake debris flows. However, we lack an adequate mechanism for quantifying bulking and applying it within a hazard context. Here we apply a 2D dynamic debris flow model (Massflow) that incorporates a process-based expression of basal entrainment to understand how debris flow bulking may occur within post-earthquake catchments and develop hazard maps. Focussing on catchments in the epicentral area of the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake, we first parameterised the model based on a large debris flow that occurred within the Hongchun catchment, before applying the calibrated model to adjoining catchments. A model sensitivity analysis identified three main controls on debris flow bulking; the saturation level of entrainable material along the flow pathway, and the size and position of initial mass failures. The model demonstrates that the difference between small and very large debris flows occur across a narrow range of pore-water ratios (λ). Below λ = 0.65 flows falter at the base of hillslopes and come to rest in the valley bottom, above λ = 0.70 they build sufficient mass and momentum to sustain channelised flow and transport large volumes of material beyond the valley confines. Finally, we applied the model across different catchments to develop hazard maps that demonstrate the utility of Massflow in post-earthquake planning within the Wenchuan epicentral region.

An experimental study on controlling post-earthquake debris flows using slit dams

Post-earthquake debris flows often break out in groups frequently, which are usually caused by the abundant loose solid materials that produced by earthquake. Slit dams represent a practical and effective kind of countermeasure for controlling the post-earthquake debris flow. Flume experiments were carried out to study the interaction mechanism and the effect of slit dams on the post-earthquake debris flows. The results showed that affected by the slit dams, some certain types of deposits formed on the upstream. The steeper the flume slope, as well as the greater the width and the density of slits, the easier the lateral deposit became “V” shaped. Otherwise, the lateral deposit was more likely to be “–‒” shaped. When the flume slopes were 12°, 16° and 20°, the profiles of the deposits would be long-shallow type, short-thick type and short-shallow type, respectively. The slope of the deposition first decreases and then increases with the flume slope increasing within a certain range. The slit dam can trap the coarse sand and discharge the fine sand. The maximum attenuation rate can reach 44.4%. The effect of this capacity gradually weakens as the flume slope is increased. When the width or the density of slits is smaller, the greater the rate of decrease in peak sand discharge and the greater the effect of peak cutting will be. The reduction in the sediment storage rate is likely due to the increase in the width and the density of the slits. With the increase in flume slope, the sediment storage rate first increases, then decreases, which reaches a maximum value when the flume slope is 16°.

Design and performance of a novel multi-function debris flow mitigation system in Wenjia Gully, Sichuan

The post-earthquake debris flows in the Wenjia Gully led to the exposure of the shortcomings in the design of the original conventional debris flow mitigation system. A predicament for the Wenjia mitigation system is a large amount of loose material (est. 50 × 106 m3) that has been deposited in the gully by the co-seismic landslide, providing abundant source material for debris flows under saturation. A novel design solution for the replacement mitigation system was proposed and constructed, and has exhibited excellent performance and resilience in subsequent debris flows. The design was governed by the three-phase philosophy of controlling water, sediment, and erosion. An Early Warning System (EWS) for debris flow that uses real-time field data was developed; it issues alerts based on the probabilistic and empirical correlations between rainfall and debris flows. This two-fold solution reduces energy of the debris flow by combining different mitigation measures while minimizing the impact through event forecasting and rapid public information sharing. Declines in the number and size of debris flows in the gully, with increased corresponding rainfall thresholds and mean rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds, indicate the high efficacy of the new mitigation system and a lowered debris flow susceptibility. This paper reports the design of the mitigation system and analyzes the characteristics of rainfall and debris flow events that occurred before and after implementation of the system; it evaluates the effectiveness of one of the most advanced debris flow mitigation systems in China.