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  • Binary Population Synthesis
  • Binary Population Synthesis
  • Binary Population
  • Binary Population

Articles published on Population synthesis

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  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.3847/1538-3881/ae31ee
Tracing Galaxy Evolution in the Nearby Universe: The Role of Dark Matter
  • Feb 4, 2026
  • The Astronomical Journal
  • A Nigoche-Netro + 8 more

Abstract Using a sample of ∼126,000 late-type galaxies (LTGs) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we analyzed stellar mass as a function of the dynamical mass. Stellar masses are estimated using eight stellar population synthesis (SPS) models with constant initial mass functions (IMFs), while dynamical masses are derived from seven formulations based on Newtonian dynamics and virial equilibrium, incorporating both stellar and gas velocity dispersions. We account for key factors affecting dynamical mass estimation, including the inclination, colour, concentration, and Sérsic index. We find that the difference between dynamical and stellar mass ( Δ log M ) ranges from nearly zero to ∼95% of the dynamical mass, depending on mass and redshift. Δ log M appears to decrease with increasing redshift, but exhibits a saddlelike shape at low mass and low redshift—especially in disk-dominated LTGs—transitioning into a steep, linear trend at higher masses and redshifts. In the high-mass regime, the behavior resembles that of early-type galaxies. Moreover, our results indicate that this evolution is not discrete but follows a continuous transition between morphological regimes. Dark matter within LTGs is at most equal to Δ log M , depending on the impact of the IMF and SPS on stellar mass estimation. Although SPS-based stellar masses do not include the gas component, previous studies have shown that galaxies with log( M Stellar / M Solar ) > 10 at z ≤ 0.3 are predominantly stellar-mass dominated. Most galaxies in our sample fall within this regime, minimizing the impact of gas exclusion. Our findings go beyond the scope of individual galaxies, providing insight into the nearby Universe and highlighting the role of dark matter in determining galaxies’ structure and evolution.

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1051/0004-6361/202558367
Predicted incidence of Jupiter-like planets around white dwarfs
  • Jan 26, 2026
  • Astronomy & Astrophysics
  • Alex Mauch-Soriano + 9 more

Gas-giant planets and brown dwarfs have been discovered in large numbers around main-sequence stars and even evolved stars. In contrast, and despite ongoing imaging surveys using state-of-the-art facilities, only a handful of substellar companions to white dwarfs are known. It remains unclear whether this paucity reflects observational challenges or the consequences of stellar evolution. We aim to carry out population synthesis of substellar objects around white dwarfs to predict the fraction and properties of white dwarfs hosting substellar companions. We generated a representative population of white-dwarf progenitors (up to 4, with substellar companions, adopting companion distributions derived from radial-velocity surveys of giant stars and a global age-metallicity relation. We then combined the stellar-evolution codes Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) and Single Star Evolution (SSE) with standard prescriptions for mass loss and stellar tides to predict the resulting population of white dwarfs and their substellar companions. We find that the predicted fraction of white dwarfs hosting substellar companions in the Milky Way is, independent of uncertainties related to initial distributions, stellar tides, or stellar mass loss during the asymptotic giant branch, below sim3 %. The occurrence rate peaks at relatively low-mass (∼ 0.53M_⊙ to ∼ 0.66M_⊙) white dwarfs and relatively young (∼ 1-6 Gyr) systems, where it can reach gappr3,%. The semimajor axes of the surviving companions range from 3-24,au with a median of 11,au. We estimate that between sim95,% of the predicted companions are gas-giant planets, which translates to a predicted general Jupiter-like planet occurrence rate around white dwarfs below sim2.9 These occurrence rates might slightly increase if multi-planetary systems are considered. Furthermore, owing to the strong dependence of companion occurrence on the metallicity of the white dwarf progenitor, the assumed age-metallicity relation strongly affects the predictions. Based on recent estimates of the local age-metallicity relation, we estimate that the fraction of white dwarfs with companions close to the Sun might reach łappr8,%. If the planetary and brown dwarf companion distributions derived from intermediate-mass giant stars through radial velocity surveys reflect the characteristics of the true population, less than 3, of white dwarfs host substellar companions. Depending somewhat on the age-metallicity relation, this most likely represents an upper limit on possible detections because a significant number of companions might not be detectable with current facilities.

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1080/23249935.2026.2618536
Developing a large-scale agent-based model for greater Jakarta: evaluating distance-based road pricing with complex multi-modal choice integration
  • Jan 24, 2026
  • Transportmetrica A: Transport Science
  • Anugrah Ilahi + 2 more

Agent-based models have become valuable tools in transport planning, particularly for evaluating mobility policies in complex urban contexts. The model simulates the daily activity-travel patterns of approximately 3 million agents (10% of the population in Greater Jakarta), incorporating socio-demographic attributes and activity chains from household travel surveys. The modelling process includes population synthesis, activity imputation, and calibration against observed mode share, trip distances, and activity distributions, resulting in a realistic representation of urban travel behaviour. This study further develops policy scenarios and assesses the impact of distance-based electronic road pricing (ERP) for private cars and motorcycles. ERP scenarios are applied to eight major arterial roads in Jakarta, with tolls differentiated by travel distance and agent income using a Discrete Mode Choice (DMC) framework through Eqasim. Results show that ERP effectively reduces private vehicle use, particularly during the evening peak, where car traffic decreases by up to 19.95% and motorcycle traffic by 14.21% under the highest pricing scenario. However, the impact during the morning peak is more modest, reflecting lower travel flexibility. The results also show that the impact varies across socio-demographic groups, with stronger effects observed among low-income individuals, female users, working-age individuals, and employed persons.

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.3847/1538-4357/ae2612
Outward Migration of a Gas Accreting Planet: A Semianalytical Formula
  • Jan 21, 2026
  • The Astrophysical Journal
  • Shigeru Ida + 4 more

Abstract Type II orbital migration is a key process to regulate the mass and semimajor axis distribution of exoplanetary giant planets. The conventional formula of Type II migration generally predicts too rapid inward migration to reconcile with the observed pileup of gas giants beyond 1 au. Analyzing the recent high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations by Y.-P. Li et al. and J.-P. Pan et al. that show robust outward migration of a gas accreting planet, we here clarify the condition for the outward migration to occur and derive a general semianalytical formula that can be applied for a broad range of planet mass and disk conditions. The striking outward migration is caused by azimuthal asymmetry in corotation torque exerted from circumplanetary disk regions (connecting to horseshoe flows) that is produced by the planetary gas accretion, while the conventional inward migration model is based on radial asymmetry in the torques from the circumstellar protoplanetary disk. We found that the azimuthal asymmetry dominates and the migration is outward when the gap depth defined by the surface density reduction factor of 1 / ( 1 + K ′ ) is in the range of 0.03 ≲ K ′ ≲ 50 . Using simple models with the new formula, we demonstrate that the outward migration plays an important role in shaping the mass and semimajor axis distribution of gas giants. The concurrent dependence of planets’ accretion rate and migration direction on their masses and disk properties potentially reproduces the observed pileup of exoplanetary gas giants beyond 1 au, although more detailed planet population synthesis calculations are needed in the future.

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1051/0004-6361/202557575
Modeling gravitational wave sources in the MillenniumTNG simulations
  • Jan 20, 2026
  • Astronomy & Astrophysics
  • Federico Marinacci + 7 more

We introduce a flexible framework for building gravitational wave (GW) event catalogs in hydrodynamic simulations of galaxy formation. Our framework couples the state-of-the-art binary population synthesis code with -- a module fully integrated into the moving-mesh code -- to assign merger events of binary compact objects to stellar particles in simulations by stochastically sampling merger tables generated with supports both on-the-fly operation, producing event catalogs during simulations, and post-processing, using snapshots from existing runs. The algorithm is fully parallel and can be readily adapted to outputs from simulation codes beyond To demonstrate the capabilities of our new framework, we applied in post-processing to simulations from the MillenniumTNG suite, including its flagship box -- one of the largest full-physics cosmological simulations to date. We investigate key properties of the resulting GW event catalog, built on predictions, focusing on comoving merger rates, formation efficiencies, delay-time distributions, and progenitor mass and metallicity distributions. We also examine how these properties vary with simulated volume. We find that GW progenitor rates closely track simulated star formation histories and are generally consistent with current observational constraints at low redshift, aside from an excess -- by a factor of ∼ 4.5 -- in binary black hole mergers, in line with trends reported in the literature. Moreover, our binary black hole merger rates decline more slowly with redshift than current observational estimates for z łesssim 1. Finally, the analysis of progenitor mass functions across different formation channels reveals only mild redshift evolution, in agreement with earlier studies, while the binary black hole mass function displays features compatible with current observational determinations. These findings highlight the potential of our novel framework to enable detailed predictions for upcoming GW surveys within a full cosmological context.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1093/mnras/stag117
Population synthesis predictions of the Galactic compact binary gravitational wave foreground detectable by LISA
  • Jan 19, 2026
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
  • Jake Mcmillan + 6 more

Abstract We use population synthesis modelling to predict the gravitational wave (GW) signal that the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect from the Galactic population of compact binary systems. We implement a realistic star formation history with time and position-dependent metallicity, and account for the effect of supernova kicks on present-day positions. We consider all binaries that have a white dwarf (WD), neutron star (NS), or black hole primary in the present-day. We predict that the summed GW signal from all Galactic binaries will already be detectable 3 months into the LISA mission, by measuring the power spectrum of the total GW strain. We provide a simple publicly available code to calculate such a power spectrum from a user-defined binary population. In the full 4 year baseline mission lifetime, we conservatively predict that >2000 binaries could be individually detectable as GW sources. We vary the assumed common envelope (CE) efficiency α, and find that it influences both the shape of the power spectrum and the relative number of detectable systems with WD and NS progenitors. In particular, the ratio of individually detectable binaries with chirp mass $\mathcal {M} < M_\odot$ to those with $\mathcal {M} \geqslant M_\odot$ increases with α. We therefore conclude that LISA may be able to diagnose the CE efficiency, which is currently poorly constrained.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1093/mnras/stag098
Can photoevaporation open gaps in protoplanetary discs?
  • Jan 19, 2026
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
  • Michael L Weber + 2 more

Abstract We investigate whether photoevaporation alone can open and sustain gaps in protoplanetary discs by coupling the evolving disc structure with the photoevaporative flow in two-dimensional radiation–hydrodynamical simulations. Our results show that once a density depression forms, the local mass-loss rate decreases sharply, suppressing further gap deepening. Viscous inflow and radial mass transport along the disc surface act to partially refill the depleted region, preventing complete clearing. The resulting configuration is a persistent, partially depleted zone whose evolution is largely insensitive to the initial disc morphology. This behaviour challenges the standard paradigm that photoevaporation efficiently carves clean inner cavities and directly produces transition discs. However, the pressure maximum at the outer edge of the depression may still trap dust grains, giving rise to transition-disc–like observational signatures. We also present a first-order prescription to approximate this behaviour in one-dimensional disc evolution models, suitable for use in planet formation and population synthesis studies. Although the prescription improves upon static mass-loss treatments, it remains approximate, underscoring the need for further multidimensional simulations and parameter-space exploration to derive robust recipes for global disc and planet population models.

  • Research Article
  • 10.3847/1538-4357/ae0cc8
Formation of Free-floating Planets via Ejection: Population Synthesis with a Realistic IMF and Comparison to Microlensing Observations
  • Jan 13, 2026
  • The Astrophysical Journal
  • Kangrou Guo + 2 more

Abstract Microlensing observations suggest that the mass distribution of free-floating planets (FFPs) follows a declining power law with increasing mass. The origin of such distribution is unclear. Using a population synthesis framework, we investigate the formation channel and properties of FFPs, and compare the predicted mass function with observations. Assuming FFPs originate from planet–planet scattering and ejection in single star systems, we model their mass function using a Monte Carlo based planet population synthesis model combined with N -body simulations. We adopt a realistic stellar initial mass function, which naturally results in a large fraction of planetary systems orbiting low-mass stars. The predicted FFP mass function is broadly consistent with observation: it follows the observed power law at higher masses (10 ≲ m / M ⊕ < 10 4 ), while at lower masses (0.1 < m / M ⊕ ≲ 10) it flattens, remaining marginally consistent with the lower bound of the observational uncertainties. Low-mass, close-in planets tend to remain bound, while Neptune-like planets at wide orbits dominate the ejected population due to their large Hill radii and shallow gravitational binding. We also compare the mass distribution of bound planets with microlensing observations and find reasonably good agreement with both surveys. Our model predicts ≃1.20 ejected planets per star in the mass range of 0.33 < m / M ⊕ < 6660, with a total FFP mass of ≃17.98 M ⊕ per star. Upcoming surveys will be crucial in testing these predictions and constraining the true nature of FFP populations.

  • Research Article
  • 10.3847/1538-4357/ae196a
The NH Distribution of Hard X-Ray Selected Active Galactic Nuclei in the NEP Field
  • Dec 17, 2025
  • The Astrophysical Journal
  • Samantha Creech + 11 more

Abstract X-ray surveys are one of the most unbiased methods for detecting Compton-thick (CT; N H ≥ 10 24 cm −2 ) active galactic nuclei (AGN), which are thought to comprise up to 60% of AGN within z ≲ 1.0. These CT AGN are often difficult to detect with current instruments, but the X-ray data within the JWST-North Ecliptic Pole (NEP) Time Domain Field present a unique opportunity to study faint and obscured AGN. The NEP contains the deepest NuSTAR survey to date, and X. Zhao et al. detected 60 hard X-ray sources from the combined exposure of NuSTAR’s Cycle 5 and 6 observations. In this work, we utilize the NuSTAR Cycle 5+6+8+9 data and simultaneous XMM-Newton observations in order to perform the first spectroscopic analysis of the 60 source catalog. We present this analysis and measure the N H distribution of the sample. We measure an observed CT fraction of 0.1 3 − 0.04 + 0.15 down to an observed 8–24 keV flux of 6.0 × 10 −14 erg s cm −2 , and we correct our analysis for absorption bias to estimate an underlying CT fraction of 0.3 2 − 0.08 + 0.23 . The derived obscuration distribution and CT fraction are consistent with population synthesis models and previous surveys.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.1093/mnras/staf2208
The demographics of binary companions to stripped-envelope supernovae: confronting population synthesis models with observations
  • Dec 16, 2025
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
  • E Zapartas + 17 more

ABSTRACT Stripped-envelope supernovae (SESNe) mark the deaths of massive stars without hydrogen-rich envelopes. Most SESNe likely originate from binary systems where a companion stripped the progenitor of its envelope. Years of HST imaging of nearby SESN sites have produced a statistically meaningful sample of constraints on surviving binary companions. We assemble the current sample of six companion detections and six non-detections from the literature, re-analysing whenever needed. We then conduct the first statistical comparison with binary population-synthesis predictions, primarily based on new calculations performed with the POSYDON framework. Across a metallicity range, our models predict that 80–90 % of Type Ib/c and 60–85 % of IIb SNe explode with a rapidly rotating main-sequence companion. The observed luminosity distribution favours fairly inefficient mass accretion and failed explosions of the most massive stripped stars. The companion detection fraction broadly matches predictions, given the imaging depth, but appears elevated for SN IIb. In all but one non-detection, a faint undetected companion is the most likely scenario. The red apparently evolved companions in a few SN Ib/c may result from strong interaction with the ejecta, expected in $\sim 12~\%$ of them. Companion demographics offer a powerful independent probe of SESN progenitor systems, with the current sample disfavouring efficient accretion and supporting Wolf–Rayet non-explodability. Larger companion samples and follow-up studies will further clarify binary pathways to SESNe, serving as benchmarks for transient surveys.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1093/mnras/staf2217
Not all roads lead to merger: AGN disc properties influence the interactions of highly unequal mass black holes
  • Dec 13, 2025
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
  • Jordan W N Moncrieff + 4 more

Abstract As the number of gravitational-wave detections of black hole binaries grows, so does the diversity of proposed formation channels. The growing sample of systems with highly unequal masses, such as GW190814 with m1 = 23.2 M⊙ and m2 = 2.59 M⊙ – corresponding to a mass ratio q = 0.112 – cannot be readily explained by isolated binary evolution and may originate through dynamical assembly in an active galactic nucleus (AGN). We investigate AGN discs capable of producing GW190814-like mergers using pAGN to model self-consistent AGN torques, coupled with TSUNAMI, a regularised N-body code including post-Newtonian terms up to 3.5 order. Suites of N-body simulations reveal possible outcomes of binary capture and merger, mean-motion resonance interactions, and other novel dynamical pathways. We develop analytical models linking the branching ratios of captures and mergers to local disc properties, applicable to black hole populations across all mass ratios. Capture probability is primarily governed by $\mathscr {B}$, the ratio of libration time to resonance-width crossing, and is well-described by a log-Gaussian, $P(\rm {capture}|\mathscr {B}) = A \exp [-(\ln \mathscr {B}-\mu )^2/2\sigma ^2]$, with $A = 0.41^{+0.04}_{-0.04}$, $\mu = 1.09^{+0.08}_{-0.07}$, $\sigma = 1.05^{+0.08}_{-0.07}$. This fit, while an upper limit, is useful for simplified population synthesis. Finally, we explore the mass ratio AGN luminosity parameter space and find that GW190814 may be formed in a low luminosity AGN of $L_{\rm AGN}\approx 10^{43.5}\ \rm erg\ s^{-1}$. A more systematic parameter space exploration and future population studies will further test our predictions.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1017/pasa.2025.10133
Understanding the Drag Torque in Common Envelope Evolution
  • Dec 10, 2025
  • Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia
  • Soumik Bhattacharyya + 4 more

Abstract Common envelope (CE) evolution is largely governed by the drag torque applied on the in-spiralling stellar components by the envelope. Previous work has shown that idealized models of the torque based on a single body moving in rectilinear motion through an unperturbed atmosphere can be highly inaccurate. Progress requires new models for the torque that account for binarity. Toward this end we perform a new 3D global hydrodynamic CE simulation with the mass of the companion point particle set equal to the mass of the asymptotic giant branch star core particle to maximize symmetry and facilitate interpretation. First, we find that a region around the particles of a scale comparable to their separation contributes essentially all of the torque. Second, the density pattern of the torque-dominating gas and, to an extent, this gas itself, is roughly in corotation with the binary. Third, approximating the spatial distribution of the torquing gas as a uniform-density prolate spheroid whose major axis resides in the orbital plane and lags the line joining the binary components by a constant phase angle reproduces the torque evolution remarkably well, analogous to studies of binary supermassive black holes. Fourth, we compare the torque measured in the simulation with the predictions of a model that assumes two weak point-mass perturbers undergoing circular motion in a uniform background without gas self-gravity, and find remarkable agreement with our results if the background density is taken to be equal to a fixed fraction (≈ 0.44) of the density at the spheroid surface. Overall, this work makes progress toward developing simple time-dependent models of the CE phase, for example by informing the development of drag force prescriptions for 1D spherically symmetric CE simulations, which could be used to explore the parameter space of luminous red novae or in binary population synthesis studies.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1051/0004-6361/202555096
Rethinking mass transfer: A unified semianalytical framework for circular and eccentric binaries. I. Orbital evolution due to conservative mass transfer
  • Dec 10, 2025
  • Astronomy & Astrophysics
  • A Parkosidis + 3 more

Mass transfer (MT) is a fundamental process in stellar evolution. While MT in circular orbits is well studied, observations indicate that it also occurs in eccentric ones, where theoretical models are limited. We present a new semianalytic framework for the secular orbital evolution of mass-transferring binaries that treats stars as either point masses or extended bodies. For the first time, a MT model is applicable to both circular and eccentric orbits and accommodates conservative and nonconservative MT across a broad range of mass ratios and stellar spins. We derived secular orbit-averaged equations describing the orbital evolution by treating MT, mass loss, and angular momentum (AM) loss as perturbations to the general two-body problem. Assuming conservative MT, we compared our results to previous models and validated them against numerical integrations. Our model predicts eccentric post-MT systems in wider orbits than classical results. Compared to other eccentric MT frameworks, the parameter space for orbital widening and eccentricity pumping we find is broader. When extended bodies are accounted for, a stronger semimajor axis and eccentricity growth are obtained at a given mass ratio, and the parameter space is further broadened for orbital widening and eccentricity pumping. Regardless of whether extended bodies are considered, eccentric MT naturally predicts higher eccentricities at longer orbital periods. This correlation has been observed in numerous post-MT systems, and thus eccentric MT provides a robust mechanism for their formation. Our model can be integrated into binary evolution and population synthesis codes to consistently treat conservative and nonconservative MT in arbitrarily eccentric orbits. The applications range from MT on the main sequence to gravitational-wave progenitors.

  • Research Article
  • 10.3847/1538-4357/ae1ca5
Formation of Binary Millisecond Pulsars with Helium White Dwarfs in a New Magnetic Braking Prescription
  • Dec 9, 2025
  • The Astrophysical Journal
  • Xing-Peng Yang + 1 more

Abstract The magnetic braking (MB) mechanism plays a vital role throughout the evolution of low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). Considering the standard MB prescription, the initial orbital periods of LMXBs that can evolve into binary millisecond pulsars (MSPs) with He white dwarfs (WDs) and short orbital periods (2–9 hr) are within an extremely narrow interval that was named the fine-tuning problem. Employing the detailed binary evolution model, we investigate the evolution of LMXBs in both the standard and convection and rotation-boosted (CARB) MB laws. In the standard MB case, it is difficult for donor stars to form a He core and exhaust the H envelope through mass transfer at short orbital periods, making them semidetached systems. The CARB MB mechanism can drive LMXBs to evolve toward compact detached MSP–WD systems in wide initial orbital periods over which binary MSPs with long orbital periods will be produced. We obtain the initial parameter space of binary MSPs with He WDs in the initial orbital period and donor-star mass plane, which can be applied to future statistics study by population synthesis simulations. We also discuss a new relation between orbital period and WD mass, the formation of persistent ultracompact X-ray binaries with relatively long orbital periods, and the detectability of compact MSP–WD systems as low-frequency gravitational-wave sources.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1093/mnras/staf2163
The power of binaries on stripped-envelope supernovae across metallicity: uniform progenitor parameter space and persistently low ejecta masses, but subtype diversity
  • Dec 5, 2025
  • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
  • D Souropanis + 11 more

Abstract Stripped-envelope supernovae (SESNe) originate from massive stars that lose their envelopes through binary interactions or stellar winds. The connection between SESN subtypes and their progenitors remains poorly understood, as does the influence of initial mass, binarity, explodability, and metallicity on their evolutionary pathways, relative rates, ejecta masses, and progenitor ages. Here, we investigate these properties across a wide metallicity range (0.01—2 Z⊙) using POSYDON, a state-of-the-art population synthesis code that incorporates detailed single- and binary-star model grids. We find that the common-envelope channel contributes less than 6% of SESNe, since unstable mass transfer is found less frequent than previously thought and rarely leads to CE survival when envelope binding energies are computed from detailed stellar models. The secondary channel accounts for less than 11%, while the vast majority of SESNe originate from primary stars in binaries undergoing stable mass-transfer episodes. These interactions maintain a largely metallicity-independent SESN parameter space, making the overall SESN rate almost insensitive to metallicity. In contrast, subtype fractions exhibit strong metallicity dependence, though their exact values remain affected by classification thresholds. The age distributions and therefore the progenitor masses of different SESN types also vary significantly with metallicity, revealing metallicity-dependent trends that can be tested observationally. Predicted SESN ejecta masses remain nearly constant across metallicity, in contrast to single-star models, and fall within observed ranges. Future transient surveys, combined with statistical environmental studies that constrain metallicity dependence, will provide decisive tests of these predictions and of the dominant role of binary interactions in shaping SESNe.

  • Research Article
  • 10.33232/001c.151255
Bayesian Posteriors with Stellar Population Synthesis on GPUs
  • Dec 2, 2025
  • The Open Journal of Astrophysics
  • Georgios Zacharegkas + 2 more

Models of Stellar Population Synthesis (SPS) provide a predictive framework for the spectral energy distribution (SED) of a galaxy. SPS predictions can be computationally intensive, creating a bottleneck for attempts to infer the physical properties of large populations of individual galaxies from their SEDs and photometry; these computational challenges are especially daunting for near-future cosmology surveys that will measure the photometry of billions of galaxies. In this paper, we explore a range of computational techniques aimed at accelerating SPS predictions of galaxy photometry using the JAX library to target GPUs. We study a particularly advantageous approximation to the calculation of galaxy photometry that speeds up the computation by a factor of 50 relative to the exact calculation. We introduce a novel technique for incorporating burstiness into models of galaxy star formation history that captures very short-timescale fluctuations with negligible increase in computation time. We study the performance of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithms in which individual chains are parallelized across independent GPU threads, finding that our pipeline can carry out Bayesian inference at a rate of approximately 1,000 galaxy posteriors per minute on a single GPU. Our results provide an update to standard benchmarks in the literature on the computational demands of SPS inference; our publicly available code enables previously-impractical Bayesian analyses of large galaxy samples, and includes several standalone modules that could be adopted to speedup existing SPS pipelines.

  • Abstract
  • 10.1093/eurpub/ckaf180.209
244 Prevalence and relative risks of sexually transmitted infections among international migrants globally: a systematic review and meta-analysis
  • Dec 1, 2025
  • The European Journal of Public Health
  • Kathryn Mackey + 5 more

OP 34: Diseases and Interventions 2, B304 (FCSH), September 5, 2025, 10:15 - 11:15International migrants are often disproportionately affected by HIV and other blood-borne viruses, particularly in high-income countries. However, evidence regarding the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) more broadly among migrants is scattered. This study aimed to synthesise the global evidence on the prevalence of STIs among migrants and specific subgroups and summarise the risk of migrants having STIs compared to non-migrants.We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of peer-reviewed literature published since 2014. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Ovid Global Health without language limitations. The primary outcome was the prevalence of STIs namely chlamydia, gonorrhoea, syphilis, genital warts, genital herpes, trichomoniasis, mpox, lymphogranuloma venereum, chancroid and donovanosis, and associated clinical syndromes. We conducted a narrative synthesis of populations studied, study setting, and barriers and facilitators of migrants’ access to sexual health services; and used meta-analysis to calculate the pooled prevalence by infection and relative risk among migrants compared to non-migrant populations.We identified 2,529 records and included 79 studies from 30 countries covering ten infections/conditions. 74 studies were included in the pooled measures of prevalence and 27 in the pooled risk ratio. Of the 27 studies with a comparison group, two thirds reported a higher prevalence of the studied infection in migrants compared to non-migrants. Compared to non-migrants, migrants were twice as likely to have a current syphilis (4 studies, pooled RR = 2.39, 95% CI = 0.13-4.65) or chlamydia infection (8 studies, pooled RR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.09-2.96) while the risk for gonorrhoea and HSV-2 was similar between groups.While STI prevalence and relative risk among migrants varies by setting, population, study type and infection, there is a clear need to address migrants’ unmet needs for sexual health information and services. This will not only improve health equity but is crucial to addressing the multiple epidemics of STIs.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1051/0004-6361/202557051
Modelling the Milky Way’s exoplanet population based on cosmological galaxy simulations
  • Dec 1, 2025
  • Astronomy & Astrophysics
  • Chloé Padois + 9 more

Context . Exoplanet transit and radial-velocity surveys have allowed us to explore the exoplanet population in our Galactic surroundings. The planet populations in more remote areas of the Milky Way (MW) will become accessible with future instrumentation. Aims . In this paper, we aim to simulate realistic exoplanet populations across different regions of the MW by combining state-of-the-art cosmological simulations of our Galaxy with exoplanet formation models and observations. Methods . We model the exoplanet populations around simulated single stars, using planet occurrence rate and multiplicity depending on stellar mass, metallicity, and planet type, and assign them physical parameters such as mass and orbital period. Results . Focussing first on the solar vicinity, we find mostly metallicity-driven differences in the distributions of non-hosting and planet-hosting single stars. In our simulated solar neighbourhood, 52.5% of all planets are Earth-like (23% of them located in the Habitable Zone), 44% are super-Earths or Neptunes, and 3.5% are giant planets. A detailed comparison with the census of Kepler exoplanets and candidates shows that, when taking into account the most relevant selection effects, we obtain a similar distribution of exoplanets compared to the observed population. However, we also detect some significant differences in the exoplanet and host star distributions (e.g. more planets around F-type and red-giant stars compared to the observations) that we attribute mostly to a too strong recent star formation and a too large disc scale height in the simulation compared to the solar neighbourhood, as well as to some caveats in our exoplanet population synthesis that will be addressed in future work. Extending our analysis to other regions of the simulated MW and to other galaxies within the same suite of simulations, we find that the relative percentages of Earth-like, super-Earth or Neptunes, and giant planets remain largely consistent as long as the simulated galaxy matches the morphology and mass of the MW. Conclusions . We have created a fast and flexible framework to produce exoplanet populations based on MW-like simulations that can easily be adapted to produce predictions for the yields of future exoplanet detection missions.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1016/j.asoc.2025.114375
A deep generative framework for joint households and individuals population synthesis
  • Dec 1, 2025
  • Applied Soft Computing
  • Xiao Qian + 3 more

A deep generative framework for joint households and individuals population synthesis

  • Research Article
  • 10.1051/0004-6361/202556794
Distributions and evolution of the equatorial rotation velocities of 2937 BAF-type main-sequence stars from asteroseismology
  • Dec 1, 2025
  • Astronomy & Astrophysics
  • Conny Aerts

Context. Studies of the rotational velocities of intermediate-mass main-sequence stars are crucial for testing stellar evolution theory. They often rely on spectroscopic measurements of the projected rotation velocities, V eq sin i . These not only suffer from the unknown projection factor sin i but tend to ignore additional line-profile broadening mechanisms aside from rotation, such as pulsations and turbulent motions near the stellar surface. This limits the accuracy of V eq distributions derived from V eq sin i measurements. Aims. We use asteroseismic measurements to investigate the distribution of the equatorial rotation velocity V eq , its ratio with respect to the critical rotation velocity, V eq / V crit , and the specific angular momentum, J / M , for several thousands of BAF-type stars, covering a mass range from 1.3 M ⊙ to 8.8 M ⊙ and almost the entire core-hydrogen burning phase. Methods. We rely on high-precision model-independent internal rotation frequencies, as well as on masses and radii from asteroseismology to deduce V eq , V eq / V crit , and J / M for 2937 gravity-mode pulsators in the Milky Way. The sample stars have rotation frequencies between almost zero and 33 μHz, corresponding to rotation periods above 0.35 d. Results. We find that intermediate-mass stars experience a break in their J / M occurring in the mass interval [2.3, 2.7] M ⊙ . We establish unimodal V eq and V eq / v crit distributions for the mass range [1.3, 2.5] M ⊙ , while stars with M ∈ [2.5, 8.8] M ⊙ reveal some structure in their distributions. We find that the near-core rotation slows down as stars evolve, pointing to very efficient angular momentum transport. Conclusions. The kernel density estimators of the asteroseismic internal rotation frequency, equatorial rotation velocity, and specific angular momentum of this large sample of intermediate-mass field stars can conveniently be used for population synthesis studies and to fine-tune the theory of stellar rotation across the main sequence evolution.

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