Population-level Need Research Articles

Defining and quantifying population-level need for children’s palliative care: findings from a rapid scoping review

BackgroundThe number of children who require palliative care has been estimated to be as high as 21 million globally. Delivering effective children’s palliative care (CPC) services requires accurate population-level information on current and future CPC need, but quantifying need is hampered by challenges in defining the population in need, and by limited available data. The objective of this paper is to summarise how population-level CPC need is defined, and quantified, in the literature.MethodsScoping review performed in line with Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for scoping reviews and PRISMA-ScR guidelines. Six online databases (CINAHL, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, Medline, PsycINFO, and Web of Science), and grey literature, were searched. Inclusion criteria: literature published in English; 2008–2023 (Oct); including children aged 0–19 years; focused on defining and/or quantifying population-level need for palliative care.ResultsThree thousand five hundred seventy-eight titles and abstracts initially reviewed, of which, 176 full-text studies were assessed for eligibility. Overall, 51 met the inclusion criteria for this scoping review. No universal agreement identified on how CPC need was defined in population-level policy and planning discussions. In practice, four key definitions of CPC need were found to be commonly applied in quantifying population-level need: (1) ACT/RCPCH (Association for Children with Life-Threatening or Terminal Conditions and their Families, and the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health) groups; (2) The ‘Directory’ of Life-Limiting Conditions; (3) ‘List of Life-Limiting Conditions’; and (4) ‘Complex Chronic Conditions’. In most cases, variations in data availability drove the methods used to quantify population-level CPC need and only a small proportion of articles incorporated measures of complexity of CPC need.ConclusionOverall, greater consistency in how CPC need is defined for policy and planning at a population-level is important, but with sufficient flexibility to allow for regional variations in epidemiology, demographics, and service availability. Improvements in routine data collection of a wide range of care complexity factors could facilitate estimation of population-level CPC need and ensure greater alignment with how need for CPC is defined at the individual-level in the clinical setting.

Evidence-based cost estimation of essential medicines for pediatric cancer care in Peru.

e18533 Background: Inequitable access to essential medicines is a large contributor to the inferior outcomes experienced by children with cancer living in low-and-middle-income countries. In collaboration with the Peruvian Ministry of Health and the Pan American Health Organization, we aimed to predict annual aggregate drug costs as well as primary cost drivers for treating Peruvian children with cancer to inform more accurate and efficient drug procurement. Methods: FORxECAST is a pediatric cancer-specific model that projects required drug quantity and cost for 18 common pediatric cancers, drawing on internationally adopted standard treatment protocols. It is customizable to geographic region, local cancer incidence, stage distribution, and domestic drug prices. To estimate aggregate costs utilizing FORxECAST, Peruvian incidence, stage at diagnosis, and per-unit drug prices were provided by local stakeholders. FORxECAST-embedded standardized data for country-specific age, sex, and BSA sourced by the World Health Organization and the Global Childhood Cancer Microsimulation Model were used. To provide comparative analyses, aggregate costs adapted for Peruvian incidence were calculated utilizing reference drug prices available through the Management Sciences for Health (MSH) International Medical Products Price Guide. Results: FORxECAST projected Peruvian aggregate drug costs to be USD$1,672,795.47 annually, which was 47% less than expected by median MSH prices and represents 4% of the total Peruvian cancer care budget. 19 of 22 medicines were cheaper on a per-unit basis relative to MSH. Dactinomycin was the costliest per-unit agent but contributes to less than 2% of the overall budget due to low aggregate demand. Primary cost drivers were 6-mercaptopurine, intravenous methotrexate, and asparaginase, due to the large quantities needed for treatment of Peru’s most common pediatric cancer: acute lymphoblastic leukemia. However, because of their low per-unit prices, sensitivity analyses showed that the annual drug budget would remain lower than predicted by MSH, even if the per-unit price for these 3 agents increased by 50% (USD$2,431,550.71 vs. USD$3,099,401.31). Conclusions: The cost of procuring accurate quantities of essential pediatric cancer medicines to meet population-level need is a small percentage of the total cancer budget for the Peruvian healthcare system. Given the potential impact that improved drug access could have on pediatric cancer survival, these data can justify health systemic efforts to effectively earmark funds for pediatric cancer care and minimize risks of stockout. Our analyses also demonstrate the importance of incorporating context-specific drug prices when estimating domestic budget impact. Next steps include comparative analyses with neighboring health systems in Latin America to assess regional price variation and inform opportunities for pooled procurement.

Feasibility issues impacting optimal levels of maternity care in rural communities: implementing the Rural Birth Index in British Columbia

IntroductionThe continued attrition of maternity services across rural communities in high resource countries demands a rigorous, systematic approach to determining population level need, including a clear understanding of feasibility issues that may constrain achieving and sustaining recommended levels of services. The Rural Birth Index (RBI) proposes a robust and objective methodology to determine such need along with attention to the feasibility of implementation.BackgroundPredictions of appropriate levels of maternity care in rural communities require consideration of the feasibility of implementation. Although previous work has focused on essential considerations that impact feasibility, there is little research documenting the barriers to implementation from the perspective of rural care providers and administrators.MethodsWe conducted in-depth, qualitative research interviews with rural community health care administrators and providers (n = 14) to understand the challenges of offering maternity care in 10 rural communities across British Columbia (BC).ResultsParticipants articulated three thematic challenges to providing maternity services in their communities: maintaining clinical skills and financial stability in the context of low procedural volume, recruitment and retention of care providers and challenges with patient transport.ConclusionsCurrent models of compensation for maternity care are inadequate and inflexible and underscore many of the challenges to implementing a level of care that is based on population need. Re-thinking provision of care as a social obligation to actualize our system commitment to equity instead of working to achieve economies of scale is the first step to use equitable care. Addressing remuneration will provide the groundwork for solving other barriers to sustainable care.

Estimating Need for Glasses and Hearing Aids in The Gambia: Results from a National Survey and Comparison of Clinical Impairment and Self-Report Assessment Approaches.

Few estimates are available of the need for assistive devices (ADs) in African settings. This study aimed to estimate population-level need for glasses and hearing aids in The Gambia based on (1) clinical impairment assessment, and (2) self-reported AD awareness, and explore the relationship between the two methods. The Gambia 2019 National Eye Health Survey is a nationally representative population-based sample of 9188 adults aged 35+ years. Participants underwent standardised clinical vision assessments including the need for glasses (distance and near). Approximately 25% of the sample underwent clinical assessment of hearing and hearing aid need. Data were also collected on self-reported awareness, need and access barriers to vision and hearing ADs. Overall, 5.6% of the study population needed distance glasses (95% CI 5.0–6.3), 45.9% (95% CI 44.2–47.5) needed near glasses and 25.5% (95% CI 22.2–29.2) needed hearing aids. Coverage for each AD was very low (<4%). The agreement between self-report and clinical impairment assessment for AD need was poor. In conclusion, there is high prevalence and very low coverage for distance glasses, near glasses and hearing aids in The Gambia. Self-report measures alone will not provide an accurate estimate of AD need.

Estimates of insulin needs and dispensation given wastage, alternative glycemic targets, and non-insulin therapies in US populations with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A microsimulation study.

Registries and health plans estimate insulin need for population health metrics. We sought to identify how such estimates affect population- and individual-level estimates of over- and under-treatment. We developed a microsimulation comparing estimated insulin need to dispensation using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2005-2016, N= 2832) and Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS, 2005-2016, N = 29,615). From NHANES, ~21.6% of people with type 2 diabetes would require insulin to achieve a HbA1c target of 7% after maximum titration of two non-insulins (60.7 IU/person/day, or 84,629,833 vials of 1000 IU in the US). From MEPS, we observed 57.4 IU/person/day of insulin dispensed (81,585,842 vials). About 29% of people were dispensed at least two standard deviations less than their estimated need, and 22% at least two standard deviations more than estimated need. Population-level need estimates reduced 39.4% if liberalizing HbA1c targets to 8% for people ≥75 years old. Estimated insulin needs of people with type 2 diabetes in the U.S. are consistent with their dispensed insulin at the population level, but are sensitive to HbA1c targets for older adults, and conceal under- and over-treated subpopulations.

Estimating assistive product need in Cameroon and India: results of population-based surveys and comparison of self-report and clinical impairment assessment approaches.

To estimate population need and coverage for distance glasses, hearing aids and wheelchairs in India and Cameroon, and to explore the relationship between assistive product (AP) need measured through self-report and clinical impairment assessment. Population-based surveys of approximately 4000 people each were conducted in Mahabubnagar district, India and Fundong district, Cameroon. Participants underwent standardised vision, hearing and musculoskeletal impairment assessment to assess need for distance glasses, hearing aids, wheelchairs. Participants with moderate or worse impairment and/or self-reported difficulties in functioning were also asked about their self-reported AP need. 6.5% (95% CI 5.4-7.9) in India and 1.9% (95% CI 1.5-2.4) in Cameroon of the population needed at least one of the three APs based on moderate or worse impairments. Total need was highest for distance glasses [3.7% (95% CI 2.8-4.7) India; 0.8% (95% CI 0.5-1.1), Cameroon] and lowest for wheelchairs (0.1% both settings; 95% CI 0.03-0.3 India, 95% CI 0.04-0.3 Cameroon). Coverage for each AP was below 40%, except for distance glasses in India, where it was 87% (95% CI 77.1-93.0). The agreement between self-report and clinical impairment assessment of AP need was poor. For instance, in India, 60% of people identified through clinical assessment as needing distance glasses did not self-report a need. Conversely, in India, 75% of people who self-reported needing distance glasses did not require one based on clinical impairment assessment. There is high need and low coverage of three APs in two low-and middle-income settings. Methodological shortcomings highlight the need for improved survey methods compatible with the international classification of functioning, disability and health to estimate population-level need for AP and related services to inform advocacy and planning.

Cost-effectiveness of a market-based home fortification of food with micronutrient powder programme in Bangladesh.

We estimated the cost-effectiveness of home fortification with micronutrient powder delivered in a sales-based programme in reducing the prevalence of Fe deficiency anaemia among children 6-59 months in Bangladesh. Cross-sectional interviews with local and central-level programme staff and document reviews were conducted. Using an activity-based costing approach, we estimated start-up and implementation costs of the programme. The incremental cost per anaemia case averted and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted were estimated by comparing the home fortification programme and no intervention scenarios. The home fortification programme was implemented in 164 upazilas (sub-districts) in Bangladesh. Caregivers of child 6-59 months and BRAC staff members including community health workers were the participants for this study. The home fortification programme had an estimated total start-up cost of 35·46 million BDT (456 thousand USD) and implementation cost of 1111·63 million BDT (14·12 million USD). The incremental cost per Fe deficiency anaemia case averted and per DALY averted was estimated to be 1749 BDT (22·2 USD) and 12 558 BDT (159·3 USD), respectively. Considering per capita gross domestic product (1516·5 USD) as the cost-effectiveness threshold, the home fortification programme was highly cost-effective. The programme coverage and costs for nutritional counselling of the beneficiary were influential parameters for cost per DALY averted in the one-way sensitivity analysis. The market-based home fortification programme was a highly cost-effective mechanism for delivering micronutrients to a large number of children in Bangladesh. The policymakers should consider funding and sustaining large-scale sales-based micronutrient home fortification efforts assuming the clear population-level need and potential to benefit persists.

A Systematic Review of Access to Rehabilitation for People with Disabilities in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Rehabilitation seeks to optimize functioning of people with impairments and includes a range of specific health services—diagnosis, treatment, surgery, assistive devices, and therapy. Evidence on access to rehabilitation services for people with disabilities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is limited. A systematic review was conducted to examine this in depth. In February 2017, six databases were searched for studies measuring access to rehabilitation among people with disabilities in LMICs. Eligible measures of access to rehabilitation included: use of assistive devices, use of specialist health services, and adherence to treatment. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts. Data was extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Of 13,048 screened studies, 77 were eligible for inclusion. These covered a broad geographic area. 17% of studies measured access to hearing-specific services; 22% vision-specific; 31% physical impairment-specific; and 44% measured access to mental impairment-specific services. A further 35% measured access to services for any disability. A diverse range of measures of disability and access were used across studies making comparability difficult. However, there was some evidence that access to rehabilitation is low among people with disabilities. No clear patterns were seen in access by equity measures such as age, locality, socioeconomic status, or country income group due to the limited number of studies measuring these indicators, and the range of measures used. Access to rehabilitation services was highly variable and poorly measured within the studies in the review, but generally shown to be low. Far better metrics are needed, including through clinical assessment, before we have a true appreciation of the population level need for and coverage of these services.

The development of a spatial palliative care index instrument for assessing population-level need for palliative care services

We developed an index to measure potential need for palliative care services (PCIX). This is an instrument that enables spatial identification of potential population-level need for palliative care services and can be developed using census data. Four indicators of potential need for palliative care services —age, sex, living arrangement, socio-economic status (SES)—were used to produce composite potential need scores for DAs. Scores were graphically mapped, producing a spatial delineation of relative need for end-of-life services. To assess the benefit of combining multiple variables to define potential need, PCIX resolution was compared to general SES-based delineations of need. PCIX scores and maps were generated for all DAs, revealing spatial variability in potential need for palliative care services (PCS). Comparison of PCIX maps to those based on purely on SES indicated that use of variables specifically linked to palliative need resulted in more precise delineations of potential populations in need of PCS. Using composite scores – based on freely available census data - to spatially assess potential need for palliative care services can provide critical data for decision makers charged with rationalizing service locations and service capacity.

The Epidemiology of First-Episode Psychosis in Early Intervention in Psychosis Services: Findings From the Social Epidemiology of Psychoses in East Anglia [SEPEA] Study.

Few studies have characterized the epidemiology of first-episode psychoses in rural or urban settings since the introduction of early intervention psychosis services. To address this, the authors conducted a naturalistic cohort study in England, where such services are well established. All new first-episode psychosis cases, 16-35 years old, presenting to early intervention psychosis services in the East of England were identified during 2 million person-years follow-up. Presence of ICD-10 F10-33 psychotic disorder was confirmed using OPCRIT [operational criteria for psychotic illness]. Incidence rate ratios were estimated following multivariable Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, neighborhood-level deprivation, and population density. Of 1,005 referrals, 687 participants (68.4%) fulfilled epidemiological and diagnostic criteria for first-episode psychosis (34.0 new cases per 100,000 person-years; 95% CI=31.5-36.6). Median age at referral was similar for men (22.5 years; interquartile range: 19.5-26.7) and women (23.4 years; interquartile range: 19.5-29.1); incidence rates were highest for men and women before 20 years of age. Rates increased for ethnic minority groups (incidence rate ratio: 1.4; 95% CI=1.1-1.6), as well as with lower socioeconomic status (incidence rate ratio: 1.3; 95% CI=1.2-1.4) and in more urban (incidence rate ratio: 1.4;95%CI=1.0-1.8) and deprived (incidence rate ratio: 2.1; 95% CI=1.3-3.3) neighborhoods, after adjustment for confounders. Pronounced variation in psychosis incidence, peaking before 20 years old, exists in populations served by early intervention psychosis services. Excess rates were restricted to urban and deprived communities, suggesting that a threshold of socioenvironmental adversity may be necessary to increase incidence. This robust epidemiology can inform service development in various settings about likely population-level need.

When Doctors Carry Out Mass Poisoning to Promote the Greater Good: the Case for Moral Capital

Background: In August, 20 13, during the ISEE Conference in Basel, hundreds of civilians were killed from a nerve gas attack (Sarin) perpetrated by the Syrian Government. Its President, Bashir Assad, is a London trained ophthalmologist. By that time, an estimated 90000 or more had died in the civil war, of whom more than half were estimated to be non-combatants and a third were minors or children. Chemical and biological warfare is banned by the Geneva Convention and its use is a crime against humanity. Turkish doctors played a leading role in organizing the Armenian Genocide and themselves gassed children, and German Nazi doctors played major roles in gassing German patients in mental hospital sand then Jews, Roma, and many others. . Objective: To examine the ethical challenges posed by the role of doctors and environmentalists as perpetrators of intentional mass murder using nerve gas agents. Method: We examine the actions and declared rationales of medical perpetrators in the light of core values of public health. Results: Turkish and Nazi doctors justified their roles as perpetrators as dictated by their responsibility to protect the health of populations they served, based on the imperatives of Eugenics and Social Darwinism, group survival and crude population resource ratios and cost benefit. These justifications presage current motifs concerning population-resource ratios among environmentalists which sometimes are conducive to indifference to mass deaths from war, genocide, mass murder and starvation. Conclusion: Environmentalists concerned with protecting and promoting public health at the population level need to be guided by the core value that respect for individual human life takes precedence over all. It is suggested that this norm drives moral capital as the limiting resource for individual and social well-being.

Urinary Excretion of Sodium, Potassium, and Chloride, but Not Iodine, Varies by Timing of Collection in a 24-Hour Calibration Study1–3

Because of the logistic complexity, excessive respondent burden, and high cost of conducting 24-h urine collections in a national survey, alternative strategies to monitor sodium intake at the population level need to be evaluated. We conducted a calibration study to assess the ability to characterize sodium intake from timed-spot urine samples calibrated to a 24-h urine collection. In this report, we described the overall design and basic results of the study. Adults aged 18–39 y were recruited to collect urine for a 24-h period, placing each void in a separate container. Four timed-spot specimens (morning, afternoon, evening, and overnight) and the 24-h collection were analyzed for sodium, potassium, chloride, creatinine, and iodine. Of 481 eligible persons, 407 (54% female, 48% black) completed a 24-h urine collection. A subsample (n = 133) collected a second 24-h urine 4–11 d later. Mean sodium excretion was 3.54 ± 1.51 g/d for males and 3.09 ± 1.26 g/d for females. Sensitivity analysis excluding those who did not meet the expected creatinine excretion criterion showed the same results. Day-to-day variability for sodium, potassium, chloride, and iodine was observed among those collecting two 24-h urine samples (CV = 16–29% for 24-h urine samples and 21–41% for timed-spot specimens). Among all race-gender groups, overnight specimens had larger volumes (P < 0.01) and lower sodium (P < 0.01 to P = 0.26), potassium (P < 0.01), and chloride (P < 0.01) concentrations compared with other timed-spot urine samples, although the differences were not always significant. Urine creatinine and iodine concentrations did not differ by the timing of collection. The observed day-to-day and diurnal variations in sodium excretion illustrate the importance of accounting for these factors when developing calibration equations from this study.

Recent advances in hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa

BackgroundHypertension was once considered rare in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but currently it has become a widespread problem with immense socioeconomic importance. The purpose of this review is to summarise new...

Global and regional mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke attributable to higher-than-optimum blood glucose concentration: comparative risk assessment

Cardiovascular mortality risk increases continuously with blood glucose, from concentrations well below conventional thresholds used to define diabetes. We aimed to quantify population-level effects of all higher-than-optimum concentrations of blood glucose on mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke worldwide. We used population distribution of fasting plasma glucose to measure exposure to higher-than-optimum blood glucose. We collated exposure data in 52 countries from individual-level records in population health surveys, systematic reviews, and data provided by investigators. Relative risks for ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality were from a meta-analysis of more than 200,000 participants in the Asia-Pacific region, with adjustment for other cardiovascular risk factors. In addition to 959,000 deaths directly assigned to diabetes, 1 490,000 deaths from ischaemic heart disease and 709,000 from stroke were attributable to high blood glucose, accounting for 21% and 13% of all deaths from these conditions. 1.8 million of these 2.2 million cardiovascular deaths (84%) were in low-and-middle-income countries (1,224,000 for ischaemic heart disease, 623,000 for stroke). 792,000 (53%) of deaths from ischaemic heart disease and 345,000 (49%) from stroke that were attributable to high blood glucose were in men. Largest numbers of deaths attributable to this risk factor from ischaemic heart disease were in low-and-middle-income countries of South Asia (548,000) and Europe and Central Asia (313,000), and from stroke in South Asia (215,000) and East Asia and Pacific (190,000). Higher-than-optimum blood glucose is a leading cause of cardiovascular mortality in most world regions. Programmes for cardiovascular risk and diabetes management and control at the population level need to be more closely integrated.