Are safe-haven assets really safe? Heterogeneity under economic, political and climate risks

This study addresses optimizing the fruit and vegetable logistics chain at the Port of Valparaíso, Chile, a key hub for exports in the Southern Hemisphere. Through an integrated approach, it combines logistics platforms (in Limache and Quillota), blockchain technology, and a Capacitated Facility Location Problem (CFLP) mathematical model. These tools help mitigate traffic congestion, high logistics costs, and limited traceability, achieving up to a 25% savings in operating expenses, a 30% reduction in CO₂ emissions, and a 50% decrease in waiting times. Integrating blockchain ensures immutable records, improving supply chain trust and the quality of exported products. This proposal, aligned with Industry 5.0 principles, promotes economic resilience and sustainability, positioning the Port of Valparaíso as an international benchmark for logistics innovation. The framework can be replicated in other ports, contributing to more efficient and sustainable supply chains and reducing urban congestion. Finally, the paper discusses social and political risks associated with infrastructure development, compares MILP with other optimization methods (heuristics or metaheuristics), and expands on the model’s potential application to different ports, including dry ports or those with limited capacity.

The objective of this research was to evaluate the ability of artificial intelligence [AI] versus human financial analysis to predict short- and medium-term investment trends. The study's contribution to the financial and organizational landscape offers an updated view of the impact of artificial intelligence on investment predictions and decision-making, highlighting the complementarity between human judgment and AI generated predictions, providing a critical perspective on the scope and limitations of both approaches. The methodology used is qualitative and documentary, oriented toward the collection, analysis, and synthesis of information from secondary sources. The results show that AI excels at condensing macroeconomic data, identifying market patterns, and rapidly generating estimates based on historical information. However, analysts' opinions vary significantly in scenarios with economic uncertainty that predictive models cannot fully capture. It is found that human experience allows for the incorporation of strategic variables, political and current risks, improving the accuracy of projections

International finance focuses on dealing with financial activities that span national borders, including areas such as exchange rate valuation, international investments, capital movements between countries, and risk analysis. As global markets become more complex, the need for reliable decision-making tools to assess various conflicting financial components becomes increasingly important. The MOORA methodology provides a systematic and quantitative framework for comparing various international financial alternatives based on multiple criteria, such as exchange rate stability, interest rates, balance of payments, and sovereign debt ratings. By normalizing data and assessing favorable and unfavorable criteria, MOORA simplifies complex financial comparisons and helps identify the most favorable investment or policy option. The method ensures consistency and objectivity, making it suitable for assessing countries, financial instruments, or investment opportunities on a global scale. This paper demonstrates how MOORA can be effectively used to rank alternatives such as different countries or financial strategies based on their financial stability and investment potential. International finance involves a variety of factors, such as exchange rates, interest rates, political risks, and economic stability, which must be assessed simultaneously to make informed choices. Traditional decision-making approaches may fail when dealing with such diverse and conflicting criteria. The use of the MOORA method allows for a structured and objective comparison of international financial alternatives. Its ability to process multiple variables and distinguish between favorable and unfavorable criteria makes it very useful for assessing global investment goals, currency performance, or financial strategies. This research contributes to financial decision science by demonstrating how a multi-criteria decision-making tool such as MOORA can improve clarity, reduce bias, and enhance strategic financial planning in international contexts. It provides valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and financial analysts operating in an increasingly interconnected global economy. The process begins by selecting relevant financial alternatives – such as countries or investment options – and identifying a number of evaluation criteria, including exchange rate stability, interest rates, balance of payments, and sovereign credit ratings. The next step involves normalizing the data to bring all values to a common scale, eliminating the effects of different units. After normalization, the criteria are classified as beneficial (to be increased) or unbeneficial (to be decreased). For each alternative, a net score is calculated by subtracting the non-beneficial values from the total beneficial values. Based on these scores, the alternatives are ranked, allowing for transparent and objective comparison. This approach supports organized, data-informed decision-making in the international finance industry. C1- Exchange rate stability – This parameter measures how smoothly a country’s currency performs against major global currencies. A stable exchange rate reduces the risk of currency losses in international transactions and investments. C2- Interest rate (%) – Interest rates directly affect borrowing costs and investment returns. C3- Balance of Payments (BoP) position – This reflects the net flow of money into or out of a country. A positive BoP indicates a healthy international financial position, making the country more attractive to investors. C4-Sovereign Credit Rating – Issued by global rating agencies, it assesses a country’s creditworthiness. Higher ratings suggest lower risk to international lenders and investors. The results ranked Segeroon as the most favorable option (rank 1), followed by Setasht (rank 2), Saban (rank 3), Sarab (rank 4), and Safar (rank 5), indicating their relative financial strength.

This paper examines how county-level government in China formulates and implements solar photovoltaic (PV) policies through an adaptive-governance lens, using Lin’an District (Hangzhou) as a case study. Drawing on multi-level policy document analysis and 30 semi-structured interviews with government officials, developers, grid actors and experts, we identify three stages of local PV development (rooftop diffusion; rapid utility-scale expansion; and market-oriented regulatory adjustment). Key governance innovations include a district PV task force, an industry alliance, and a dual acceptance safety mechanism that together accelerated deployment while managing technical and political risks. We show how adaptive governance operates within an authoritarian, hierarchical system by combining top-down targets with bottom-up development and stakeholder coordination. The findings illuminate practical trade-offs between market liberalization and regulatory control, and provide transferable lessons for other developing countries pursuing decentralized renewable energy transitions.

Interorganizational alliances have been extensively studied as strategic arrangements that enable firms to manage risks arising from their embeddedness in external relationships. However, the unique dynamics of business-to-government (B2G) relationships, where firms often face regulatory and political risks, remain underexplored. In this study, we examine how firms reliant on U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) contracts use strategic alliances to mitigate these challenges. Drawing on resource dependence theory and the resource-based view of the firm, we theorize that firms with higher government contract value are more likely to form alliances with other government contractors to help share risk and navigate government contracting challenges. We further identify two boundary conditions—an internal buffer (whether a firm operates as a generalist or specialist contractor) and an external buffer (the level of market-demand risk)—that moderate this relationship. Our analysis of 339 U.S. publicly traded DoD contractors from 2001 to 2019 provides robust support for our hypotheses. A post hoc mediation analysis further shows that alliances partially mediate the relationship between government contract value and market performance. Our study contributes to interorganizational relationships and business-government interface literatures by articulating the unique dynamics of B2G alliances and offering nuanced insights into how firms manage their relationships with powerful government buyers.

This paper develops a conceptual model for commodity revenue securitization as an innovative capital markets financing mechanism for infrastructure projects in resource-dependent and emerging economies. Infrastructure financing gaps persist due to fiscal constraints, sovereign risk, and limited long-term debt capacity, while many countries possess predictable commodity revenue streams from oil, gas, minerals, and agricultural exports. The proposed model integrates financial structuring theory, project finance principles, and capital markets instruments to demonstrate how future commodity revenues can be transformed into tradable securities that mobilize upfront capital for infrastructure delivery. The model conceptualizes a special purpose vehicle that ring-fences commodity-linked cash flows through offtake agreements, production-sharing contracts, or export receivables, which are then structured into asset-backed securities or revenue bonds. Credit enhancement mechanisms, including overcollateralization, reserve accounts, hedging strategies, and multilateral guarantees, are incorporated to mitigate price volatility, counterparty risk, and political risk. The framework further embeds governance safeguards such as transparent revenue management, independent trusteeship, and regulatory oversight to address accountability and investor confidence concerns. By linking commodity production economics with infrastructure cash-flow requirements, the model illustrates how securitization can lower weighted average cost of capital, extend tenor maturity, and diversify funding sources beyond traditional bank lending and sovereign borrowing. It also highlights the conditions under which commodity revenue securitization is financially viable, emphasizing commodity price stability, robust legal frameworks, credible institutions, and disciplined fiscal management. Potential risks, including revenue volatility, moral hazard, and intergenerational equity concerns, are explicitly addressed through structural protections and policy alignment. This conceptual contribution advances the literature by offering a structured pathway for aligning natural resource endowments with sustainable infrastructure financing through capital markets. The model provides policymakers, project sponsors, and institutional investors with a coherent analytical lens for evaluating commodity-backed financing strategies while balancing development objectives, fiscal prudence, and market discipline. It lays the foundation for empirical testing and comparative analysis across infrastructure sectors and commodity-dependent economies. Future research should operationalize the model using case studies, pricing simulations, and regulatory assessments to inform scalable implementation, risk governance design, and long-term development outcomes in global infrastructure finance across diverse commodity cycles and institutional contexts worldwide comparatively. Keywords: Commodity Revenue Securitization, Infrastructure Finance, Capital Markets, Project Finance, Resource-Backed Financing, Emerging Economies, Revenue Bonds.

This article presents the findings of a doctoral dissertation and offers an in-depth examination of Georgia’s pre-election media environment, analyzing its key trends, challenges, and risks. Media influence is particularly strong during election periods, as it shapes voters’ attitudes, disseminates information about candidates and political parties, and contributes to the construction of public discourse. The findings show that Georgia’s pre-election media environment is often exposed to political influence, sharp polarization, and risks of disinformation. These factors pose significant challenges for maintaining media impartiality and professional ethical standards. A polarized media landscape undermines voters’ ability to access objective information and make informed choices. The study demonstrates that trust in media outlets varies significantly according to political preferences, which further exacerbates social polarization. The media’s role in a democratic society is pivotal, as it provides citizens with essential information, facilitates public debate, and holds those in power accountable. The research relies on a mixed-methods design combining qualitative and quantitative approaches: in-depth interviews with media experts, a survey of 350 voters, and an analysis of secondary data (international and local media-monitoring reports, as well as academic literature). This complex design makes it possible to present a comprehensive picture that integrates professional perspectives with public perceptions and lived experiences. The study also compares Georgia’s media environment with European standards and practices, which significantly increases the relevance and broader value of the analysis. The article has two main goals. First, it identifies the factors shaping media performance during the pre-election period, including ownership transparency, editorial independence, funding sources, and political interference. It analyzes how these factors contribute to a polarized and often biased media system. Second, it assesses the challenges these dynamics create for democratic processes and public trust, with particular emphasis on the risks of disinformation, manipulation of public opinion, and their ultimate impact on voter attitudes and electoral outcomes. Against this background, the article underlines the need to strengthen media independence and professional standards as a key precondition for fair and transparent elections. Keywords: media environment, pre-election communication, polarization, disinformation, European practice.

This article examines the evolving strategic choices of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states as they navigate renewable energy partnerships with two major global actors, namely the European Union (EU) and China, against the backdrop of the securitization of the fourth energy transition after 2022. The study situates Gulf decision-making within a transformed geopolitical context, where energy transition has become both an environmental imperative and a pillar of national security policy in Europe, China, and the Gulf. Using a comparative SWOT framework supported by original data on foreign direct investment, EPC contracting, and equipment supply, the analysis contrasts the EU’s technology- and regulation-driven model with China’s cost-competitive, rapidly deployable solutions. It explores how GCC states balance immediate needs for scalable, affordable green technologies, largely supplied by China, with future-oriented investments in European renewable markets to secure technology access and hedge against long-term hydrocarbon demand decline. The article also highlights the political, economic, and technological risks of overreliance on either partner. It concludes that the GCC’s green energy strategy reflects a broader balancing act in an era of great power rivalry, leveraging both EU and Chinese engagement to diversify partnerships, safeguard economic resilience, and maintain strategic flexibility in the era of global energy transition.

Introduction. We are discussing the effectiveness of the project approach to political governance and the correctness of the chosen methods for implementing and evaluating public programs in different areas. In this article, we focus on the institutional aspect of regional identity politics to identify the basic symbolic grounds for the formation of the image of the “we”-community, which are used by the regional political-administrative elite in the official political discourse. Methods and materials. We assess identity politics as a political strategy characterized by specific goals and intended outcomes. Our method for analyzing state programs in the Saint Petersburg and Moscow metropolitan areas involved qualitative content analysis, enabling us to identify and consider the main narratives promoted by the political-administrative elite. The political-administrative elite employs these narratives to construct a collective “we” identity and establish a symbolic foundation for population cohesion. Special attention is paid to the issue of agglomeration development in the texts of state programs operating in the territory of megacities. Analysis. The article describes the main characteristics of the images of residents of agglomeration territories presented in state programs and development strategies. The documents devoted to Greater Moscow reflect the urbanistic vector of agglomeration development and vividly “draw” the image of the territory’s future. St. Petersburg authorities rely more on the cultural and historical heritage of the territory and the unique symbolic capital of the Northern Capital. Results. Based on the results of the study of agglomerations and the analysis of state programs, it can be stated that the problems of territorial development are raised in the framework of projects related to the transport and infrastructure development of the megacity and adjacent settlements. However, explicit political risks related to interethnic relations and problems of social integration are not given due attention in the official discourse. Authors’ contribution. S.K. Kalashnikova – research methodology, data collection. M.Ya. Pogodina – data analysis, comparative case analysis.

The article presents a comprehensive study of the updated methodology of the negotiation process for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, with a focus on the changes introduced during the 2020 revision of the EU enlargement policy and their impact on the structure, dynamics, and substance of accession negotiations. It is analysed that the updated methodology aimed to enhance transparency, effectiveness, and political conditionality of the accession process through the introduction of a cluster-based approach, the possibility of reversal measures in the case of reform backsliding, and closer alignment between a candidate country’s access to EU programmes and its progress in fulfilling commitments. It is emphasised that although the methodology was formally intended to accelerate accession, in practice it did not remove key systemic obstacles linked to political decisions of Member States, which may block negotiation steps for reasons beyond technical alignment with the acquis. The study argues that Ukraine’s accession trajectory is largely shaped by the EU’s internal priorities, including the budgetary cycle, institutional reform, defence policy, and energy autonomy, which transform progress assessment mechanisms from purely legal-technical to strategic and politically driven. The article demonstrates that the parallel functioning of two complementary processes– full legal harmonisation under the Association Agreement and negotiations on the terms of membership– creates the need for a comprehensive system of inter-institutional coordination capable of ensuring oversight over acquis implementation, institutional resilience, transparency of legislative activity, and synchronisation with negotiation clusters. It is shown that institutional autonomy, analytical capacity, a central decision-making authority, and mechanisms of interagency coordination constitute key determinants of successful negotiations. Special attention is given to the legal nature of derogations from the acquis that may be formalised at the final stage of negotiations: transitional arrangements allowing short-term exceptions to prevent economic shocks, and permanent derogations that legally define specific regulatory conditions in sensitive sectors such as energy, transport, competition, or agricultural policy. The article concludes that Ukraine requires not only accelerated implementation of reforms, but also active diplomatic engagement with Member States to mitigate political risks of negotiation blockage, as well as strategic participation in intra-EU political processes shaping the Union’s position as a negotiation actor.

The study presented in this article aims to identify systemic threats to political stability and digital sovereignty in the Republic of Uzbekistan caused by fragmented legal regulation in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). A comparative analysis of regulatory models in Uzbekistan, Russia and Kazakhstan revealed critical gaps in legal frameworks for AI, specifically, there is a lack of specialized legislation on use of AI, ethical standards, and a direct prohibition on manipulative techniques such as deepfakes, mechanisms for risk assessment, clear delineation of responsibility for harm, and the development of national infrastructure with effective training tools. In the context of Marshall McLuhan’s media ecological theory, which views AI as an “external brain,” these gaps create a vicious cycle of interrelated political risks. The population’s cognitive vulnerability, known as “brain rot,” combined with unregulated synthetic media (deepfakes), creates the conditions for mass manipulation. Technological dependence on foreign platforms and the exodus of specialists lead to the loss of digital sovereignty. The uncritical implementation of AI in the public sector without accountability mechanisms undermines institutional trust. The article provides evidence that maintaining the current regulatory approach turns AI from a tool for development into a source of systemic vulnerability. In order to minimize these risks, it is necessary to immediately adopt comprehensive legislation that takes into account best practices from neighboring countries and addresses current challenges in the legal regulation of AI.

This study proposes a hybrid analytical framework that integrates Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) and advanced feature engineering to enhance the forecasting of global political risk. Using daily data from the Global Political Risk Database (GPRD) from February 2015 to February 2025, comprising 3624 valid observations, the model incorporates multi‑scale temporal characteristics derived from CEEMDAN to construct a twenty‑dimensional feature set that captures short‑term volatility, medium‑term fluctuations, and long‑term structural dynamics. These features are integrated into a LightGBM regression model to characterize nonlinear associations between decomposed components and political‑risk levels. Empirical evaluations show that the proposed framework achieves high predictive accuracy, with R² = 0.932, RMSE = 13.45, and MAE = 10.42, outperforming six benchmark approaches, including ARIMA, LSTM, Random Forest, and XGBoost. Rolling‑window analysis further demonstrates the model’s temporal robustness, while feature‑importance results reveal that forward‑looking geopolitical pressure indicators and short‑term persistence play dominant roles in shaping risk trajectories. The findings provide both methodological insights and practical guidance by illustrating how multi‑scale decomposition, targeted feature construction, and gradient‑boosting models can be combined to improve the early detection of political instability. Overall, the proposed CEEMDAN–LightGBM framework offers a reliable, interpretable, and operationally relevant tool for policymakers, risk analysts, and investors seeking to monitor and forecast geopolitical uncertainty in rapidly changing global environments.

ABSTRACT This article theorizes voice and silence as co-constitutive practices of communication and method in mini-ethnographic fieldwork. Drawing on a 4-week immersion with Tibetan women living in exile in Dharamshala, India, I examine how withholding, redirection, gesture, and paced pauses operate as deliberate strategies in gendered and politically sensitive settings. Rather than treating silence as deficit, I argue that it can mark agency and narrative sovereignty where disclosure entails social or political risk. The article advances three contributions. First, it repositions the researcher’s task from “giving voice” to recognizing refusal and withdrawal as forms of voice. Second, it specifies a micro-analytic procedure that makes nonverbal and withheld cues methodologically tractable in short, iterative engagements. Third, it reframes the “limitations” of mini-ethnography as a temporal horizon, clarifying what extended time might reveal and what strategic silences will rightly continue to protect. The argument speaks to qualitative methodology at the intersection of reflexivity, decolonial ethics, and research with displaced communities.

This study examines the impact of political risk insurance on foreign direct investment and Nigeria-United States political economy relations during Muhammadu Buhari’s administration (2015–2023). Employing a quantitative research design, it analyzes data from the World Bank, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, and United States International Development Finance Corporation reports using descriptive statistics and correlation analyses. Neoliberal Institutionalism frames the study, highlighting how institutions like the United States International Development Finance Corporation and Nigeria’s National Insurance Commission mitigated risks, such as political violence and expropriation, fostering bilateral trade valued at 8.1 billion dollars in 2022. Findings of the study reveal a decline in Nigeria’s foreign direct investment inflows from 4.45 billion dollars in 2016 to negative 0.19 billion dollars in 2022, contrasted by stable United States foreign direct investment stock between 5 and 6 billion dollars, supported by a 160 percent increase in United States International Development Finance Corporation portfolio exposure to 780 million dollars by 2023. However, systemic challenges, including corruption, insecurity, and policy inconsistencies, limited broader foreign direct investment growth. The study recommends strengthening Nigeria-United States economic ties through institutional reforms and expanded political risk insurance coverage.

The article delves into a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted problem of optimal public administration in the context of political risks. It emphasizes that the very conceptualization of managing such risks in a dynamic environment represents a scientific challenge. The study demonstrates a historical continuity in understanding this topic – from ancient philosophers, who laid the foundations for understanding the volatility of power, through medieval, Renaissance, and utopian thinkers, to modern theoretical constructs. The author argues that the modern understanding of political risks has been shaped by the systems approach, structural functionalism, as well as theories of “risk society” and autopoietic systems. This allows us to view risks not as external threats, but as inherent elements of political dynamics generated by the activities of socio-political actors themselves. The key conclusion of the article is that effective management of political risks requires their identification, analysis and assessment in inseparable connection with the strategic goals of the development of the state. Since risks are of a socio-dynamic nature, their management should be proactive and based on a set of methodologies, including structural, institutional and synergetic approaches, as well as system analysis, which ensures the stability and sustainable development of the political system.

Abstract Macroeconomic uncertainties—such as political risk and economic policy instability—have been widely examined in relation to energy transition, security, and environmental performance. However, their impact on energy efficiency remains underexplored. A key question emerges: do geopolitical risks impede energy efficiency or do they compel governments to enhance efficiency and reduce import dependence? This paradox calls for empirical investigation. While recent studies suggest that geopolitical threats may still improve energy efficiency in Europe due to their advanced infrastructure and technological capacity, it is unclear whether these findings hold globally and how outcomes differ across income groups. To address this gap, we employ a news-based geopolitical risk index and endogenous stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) to provide a comprehensive global assessment across income levels and time periods for 1985–2022. The results show that geopolitical risks significantly increase global energy inefficiency, with low-income countries most severely affected. However, evidence indicates that, over time, countries may adapt by improving efficiency and diversifying energy sources. Counterfactual scenarios analysis further demonstrates that reducing geopolitical risks could lower global energy inefficiency by at least 13%. These findings highlight the importance of policies that both mitigate geopolitical risks and strengthen the resilience of energy systems worldwide. Graphical abstract

Under the conditions of a large-scale, protracted war and the mass forced displacement of Ukraine’s population, research on the resilience of the state and the impact of migration processes on individual and societal resilience is of exceptional relevance. Accordingly, the purpose of this article is to analyze the interrelationship between resilience and migration in the specific historical context of Ukraine. To achieve this goal, general scientific methods of cognition were applied: systemic, structural-functional, comparative, and historical. The novelty of the results lies in identifying the relationship between migration and resilience and formulating recommendations for migration policy measures aimed at strengthening the resilience of individuals and society as a whole in the context of migration. The article demonstrates the ambivalent impact of migration on resilience, which acts both as a challenge and as an instrument of individual and societal resilience. It highlights that forced population displacements generate considerable social, economic, cultural, and political risks, yet simultaneously protect individuals from threats to life and health while creating opportunities for rebuilding lives and pursuing further development. At the individual level, migration is associated with the loss of social ties, marginalization, and psychological trauma, but it also facilitates the formation of adaptive strategies and resilience. At the macro level, for countries of origin, population outflow reduces pressure on labor markets and social welfare systems, provides remittances that are vital for households and national economies, and contributes to the development of human capital through knowledge and skills acquired by migrants abroad, while simultaneously entailing risks of demographic decline and brain drain. For host countries, the inflow of migrants supports economic growth and labor force renewal, yet also generates challenges for social cohesion, potentially fueling societal radicalization and strengthening far-right movements. Migration’s influence on cultural and political resilience is ambivalent. For Ukrainian war refugees, the preservation of national identity, language, and culture has become both an act of resistance and a source of resilience, as well as a means of promoting Ukrainian culture abroad. At the same time, the cultural resilience of Ukrainians abroad — particularly among children and youth growing up in foreign cultural environments — faces significant challenges. Politically, Ukrainians abroad act as agents of public diplomacy, shaping public opinion in host societies and thereby encouraging governments to support Ukraine. Despite its negative consequences, the mass presence of Ukrainians abroad enhances the international legitimacy of the Ukrainian state and establishes new channels of influence on international relations through the diaspora. The study concludes that resilience is a socially significant phenomenon and should therefore be recognized as a key objective of political action. Migration policy, as a tool of crisis management — particularly in addressing the destructive effects of mass forced displacements caused by armed conflict — should aim not only to mitigate risks but also to harness the potential of migration as a resource for Ukraine’s recovery and sustainable development during the war and throughout the post-war reconstruction process. Among the directions of such a policy are finding a sustainable solution to the problems of internally displaced persons in the interests of both the displaced and the host communities, creating conditions for the return of war refugees to their homeland, and strengthening ties with Ukrainians abroad as part of the Ukrainian nation.

This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of Ghana’s energy security and environmental sustainability using a multi-indices approach. Focusing on five key indicators: the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), Shannon–Wiener Index (H), Simpson Index (D), Adjusted Shannon–Wiener Neumann Index (SWNI), and Carbon Intensity Index (CI) are employed to assess the concentration, diversification, and dependency of Ghana’s energy sources alongside carbon emissions. The results indicate a highly concentrated energy portfolio, with petroleum products and biomass dominating the energy mix. The HHI score of 0.23 reflects moderate market concentration, while the Shannon–Wiener Index of 1.5 and Simpson Index of 4.3 highlight a relatively diverse but still imbalanced energy mix. The SWNI1 score of 0.37, accounting for political risk, reveals a vulnerability due to reliance on imported energy. Furthermore, the Carbon Intensity Index of 5.50 kt CO2 per ktoe of energy consumed (2022) underscores significant carbon emissions, necessitating a sustainable energy transition. These findings emphasize the need to enhance domestic energy production, diversify energy sources, and adopt low-carbon technologies to improve Ghana’s energy security and environmental resilience.

Purpose of the research: The study aims to examine the relationship between Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) flows and the stock market in Egypt from FY2004/05 to FY2023/24, focusing on the EGX 30 Index. Given Egypt's evolving economic landscape, understanding this relationship is crucial for policymakers, investors, and financial institutions seeking to manage market risks. By analyzing quarterly FPI & EGX30 data from the Central Bank of Egypt & Egyptian Exchange, the research aims to identify patterns, causality, and policy implications. The findings will contribute to academic discourse on emerging markets and enhance understanding of strategies for stabilizing Egypt’s financial market amid global economic uncertainties. Methodology: The research deploys an ARDL model to capture short and long-term effects of FPI, interest rates, and exchange rates on the EGX30 Index. Results: In the short run, the EGX30 Index shows a strong and statistically significant relationship with its past values, indicating market momentum. Foreign portfolio investment has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on the stock market. Interest rates exhibit a positive and marginally significant impact, suggesting some influence on investor behavior. The exchange rate has a negative but statistically insignificant effect in the short term. In the long run, foreign portfolio investment continues to show a positive yet statistically insignificant effect, reflecting volatility and external risk factors. Interest rates demonstrate a strong positive and marginally significant relationship with the stock market, while the exchange rate shows a strong, positive, and statistically significant long-term impact, highlighting the influence of currency depreciation on export-driven stocks. Conclusion: Exchange rate depreciation had a strong positive impact, especially after the 2016 floatation and recent 2022–2024 devaluations, as it boosted export-driven stocks on the EGX. Foreign portfolio investment was unstable and statistically insignificant, reflecting Egypt’s recent FPI volatility and the challenges of political and currency risks.