Political Cycles Research Articles

Rethinking Migrant Hierarchies: Non-Citizen Political Engagement and Policy Cycles in South Korea

Most migrants in South Korea reside in the country as foreign citizens. Access to citizenship and social rights are tied to residence status, resulting in differential treatment of foreign-born residents. This article contributes to research on non-citizen hierarchies by demonstrating the formation of fluid hierarchies through a case study of non-citizen political engagement in South Korea during Covid-19. The study employs critical policy discourse as an analytical lens to examine policy cycles as they develop through negotiations between state and society. The findings show that the hierarchization of non-citizens evolves throughout policy cycles and operates incoherently across sets of policies. The formation of fluid hierarchies is discussed with implications for migration policy and the study of migrant hierarchies.

From Bolsonaro to Lula: The opportunity to rebuild universal healthcare in Brazil in the government transition.

This paper takes the government transition that took place between 2022 and 2023 in Brazil as a case study and aims to analyse how a cycle of radical right-wing populist government acted to dismantle Brazil's national health system foundations. It describes how governance was built based on political-clientelism and market-privatising interests and on the adoption of long-term fiscal austerity policies, whose results are public defunding and weakening and disorganisation of the country's national health system, with a significant worsening of health indicators and the capacity to respond to the population health needs. The lessons from recent experience in Brazil should serve as learning and a source of academic and political reflection, since there is an ongoing international movement and signs of rise of radical right-wing populist regimes in several countries, which endanger the Democratic Rule of Law, institutions, and social policies. It allows putting into perspective how political cycles of this nature can affect national universal health systems, including those that have experienced substantial progress towards universal access and universal health coverage. Keeping in mind the Brazilian experience, it was possible to observe the progressive structuring of a radical right-wing neo-populism and in the sanitarian.

Political cycle and effective corporate tax rate: evidence from China

ABSTRACT This research aims to investigate the changing of effective corporate tax rate during the political cycle of Provincial Party Congresses with the data from Chinese industrial businesses from 1998 to 2009. The study shows that the effective tax rate for enterprises fluctuates with the political cycle of Provincial Party Congresses. The effective tax rate, in particular, tends to rise in the year before and during the Provincial Party Congresses, then decline year after year. Further study reveals variation in the impact of political cycles on officials and enterprises with various characteristics; for example, the impact of the corporation effective tax rate is more obvious for male officials, private firms, and so on. At the same time, the paper does not find a significant age ‘ceiling effect’ among prefecture-level officials in China. And the regional rule of law construction does not have a significant effect on the political cyclicality of corporate effective tax rates, whereas the political cyclicality of effective corporate tax rates is more pronounced in regions with higher government investment intensity. Finally, this paper puts forward policy recommendations such as improving officials’ promotion and assessment mechanisms and optimizing the government’s policy implementation.

The effect of political budget cycle on local governments’ financial statements in a young democracy

IMPACT This article investigates whether the political budget cycle exists among local governments in Indonesia by examining if there are significant decreases in surplus and cash holdings and increases in current liabilities around election years. Investigating the political budget cycle in Indonesia is important because it is a young democracy where the political budget cycle is usually more prevalent. As local governments’ financial reports are publicly available, concerned citizens can use the financial reports to detect the presence of political budget cycles and to assess their magnitude. This increases budget transparency which, in turn, increases accountability to voters—particularly at the local level.

An Analysis of How the Construction Business in Ethiopia Is Affected by the Rising Cost of Building Materials

The construction industry differs significantly from other economic sectors due to a variety of distinctive features. Construction projects fail with a disproportionately high frequency in Ethiopia's construction industry today because it is fragmented and highly subject to political and economic cycles. However, due to the numerous risks inherent in how the sector functions, phrases like project business failure, collapse, and bankruptcy frequently used in Ethiopian construction. Assessing existing issues with Ethiopian construction project failure was the goal of this study. According to the study's findings, the main causes of current construction project failure are delays in clients' (donors') debt collections, border closures, heavy dependence on bank loans and payment of high interest on these loans, lack of capital, absence of industry regulations on building materials costs due to high neglect in free market and lack of experience in contract management. Finally, realities of the focus group showed that the construction project failure is valid and it represent a step forward in the way of construction industry development in Ethiopia. The results of the research also recommended to that there be an urgent need for an independent and responsible body to take the lead of the adoption and the application of the ethical code and more efforts need to done to help construction sectors to understand and realize the importance and role of ethics professional in construction industry. Education and mandatory training programs can conducted for stakeholders about the content of the market inflation and rising Cost of Building Materials to control. Media's role and research development also is very important. Based on these findings, approvals to all stakeholders are obey for National Trade Industry Regulations that currently work in Ethiopia construction industry.

Waste recycling and yardstick competition among Italian provinces after the EU Waste Framework Directive

ABSTRACT Recycling and the recovery of waste are crucial waste management strategies. In light of the new European Union (EU) circular economy approach, these strategies remain core pillars of a competitive and sustainable waste value chain. Local governments have an important role in controlling and checking the implementation of waste management policies. We study the spatial determinants of waste recovery using a dataset of 102 Italian provinces from 2001 to 2014. To induce a possible source of exogenous variation, we exploit the political cycle of the provinces to isolate the impact of waste recovery in neighbouring provinces on its own province’s waste recovery. We find that after the transposition of the 2008 EU Waste Framework Directive, provinces mimic their own neighbours in the separate collection of waste aimed at recycling and recovery. This effect is more pronounced during pre-electoral years than non-pre-electoral ones, and fully guided by provinces where the president can run for re-election.

What type of central banker dampens the political business cycle? The case of Africa

AbstractThis article investigates the extent to which central bank independence can help to reduce political business cycles in Africa. Like previous studies, we find evidence of political cycles in our sample of 34 African countries for the period 1980–2018, but our findings show that politicians' ability to manipulate both fiscal and monetary policy depends on the degree of alliance between the fiscal authority and the monetary authority. Indeed, our analysis reveals that the political business cycle worsens when the central banker is an ally whereas a non‐ally central banker is associated with a decrease in the ability of the incumbent government to induce opportunistic political cycles, and this result holds, regardless of whether an African country is classified as a democracy or a dictatorship. In addition to that, despite the theoretical argument that political business cycles are unlikely to exist in dictatorships, we find evidence that both political budget and monetary cycles are prevalent in African dictatorships.

Climate adaptation in Coastal Virginia: an analysis of existing policies and main stakeholders

ABSTRACT The impacts of climate change have sparked policy responses at different governance levels. Studying the central adaptation policies and understanding the interactions and complexities of governmental and non-governmental stakeholders is essential in guiding policymakers at different levels of government to formulate policies and make investment decisions. With strategic and economic significance on the national level, Coastal Virginia has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise in the United States, instigating intensified and more frequent climate hazards such as flooding and storms. This paper strives to characterize the status of adaptation policymaking in this region through a novel keyword analysis method and a thematic analysis of interviews with the main adaptation decision-makers and stakeholders. We identify the central adaptation policies and programmes at the local, regional, state, and federal level, as well as the major relevant players. This provides a comprehensible narrative of adaptation policymaking, which could be exploited to further analyze governance gaps and adaptation challenges. The approach and methodologies of this research could be implemented in similar studies for other areas of the U.S. that are at high climate risk, possibly facilitating an informed national adaptation policy, long overdue by the federal government. The research is also relevant for other jurisdictions at risk of sea-level rise. Key policy insights Coastal adaptation policymaking in Virginia has been a bottom-up and fragmented process initiated by most affected localities, exhibiting the importance of local initiatives in higher-level adaptation policies. The long-lasting impacts of 100 Resilient cities and Dutch Dialogues in the City of Norfolk highlight the value of fostering cross-geographic coordination and capacity-building programmes, confirming the importance of informal policy networks in learning and innovation for adaptation. There is a vast difference among localities in adaptation planning and implementation, creating the need for coordinating state leadership. Adaptation policymaking in Virginia has been influenced by political cycles with priorities drastically altered by each administration change, introducing significant uncertainty for continuation of policies. National policies and programmes, such as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, can significantly affect local-level policies and decision-making.

Political cycles of the Balkan region

The article analyzes the economic and financial relations between countries of the Balkan region, on the one hand, and the ones of the European Union, as well as, the United States of America, China and Russia, on the other hand. In contemporary information society, entirely, or partially forgotten symbols can be forerunners of changes in socio-economic structures. As Karl Gustav Jung said, “color and symbol rule the world because they are faster than thought”. Different countries and regions have their own symbols. Griffin, a flying lion, for instance, was a symbol of Tartaria, then it appeared to be a national symbol of Bulgarian and Romanian national currency. The symbol determines the cyclical nature of social and political processes and symbolizes political behavior that can be «unreasonable» in the opinion of the Italian sociologist and economist V. Pareto. Investigating the sense of political cycles and their symbols is of huge interest for modern researchers.

Cykl polityczny w wydatkach majątkowych jednostek samorządu terytorialnego w Polsce

Purpose – The purpose of the speech is to present the results of empirical verification of the occurrence of the political cycle in the property expenditures of cities with county rights. The timeliness of the topic and research objective undertaken is current challenges for local finance management under conditions of uncertainty, the results of national and international research to date, as well as the risks associated with various types of risk, including political risk. Research method – The realization of the objective will be based on the presentation of the most important issues of the subject literature and quantitative methods. For quantitative research, panel data analysis was used. In order to detect the existence of signs of the existence of a political cycle, a trend model of property expenditures with fixed effects was estimated (it was assumed a priori that units differ from each other). The source of the data is the budget reports published by the Ministry of Finance on the website of the Public Information Bulletin. Results – The results show that there is a political budget cycle in investment expenditures, which is strongly determined by the timing of local elections. Observations confirm that investment expenditures are strongly determined by the timing of local elections. The survey also showed an autocorrelation of property expenditures, which may indicate that the investments implemented by cities may be multi-year in nature. Originality / value / implications / recommendations – The conducted analysis may be a stimulus for further research related to the effects of the political cycle and an attempt to identify the remaining political risk factors.

The political budget cycle in emerging and developing countries

The political budget cycle in emerging and developing countries

A Baseline Model of Behavioral Political Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

A Baseline Model of Behavioral Political Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Комплексные прогнозно-аналитические методы исследования государственной социальной политики в России

The article deals with complex forecasting and analytical methods for studying the state social policy in Russia, which can be divided into non-formalized and formalized ones. Expert method, scenario method, comparison method, as well as the factor analysis method and the decision tree construction method, respectively, are analyzed as examples of such methods. The author comes to the conclusion that use of various research methods should be present at each stage of political cycle, which will preserve the relevance of the imple-mented social policy and increase its effectiveness.

Влияние больших данных на принятие решения о мерах поддержки бизнеса в период пандемии Covid-19: кейс Санкт-Петербурга

This article examines the use of big data in the decision-making process on measures to support small and medium-sized businesses in St. Petersburg during the COVID-19 pandemic. The theoretical novelty of this study lies in the demonstration of the use of big data to combat the pandemic and its consequences at the regional level. The research issue is considered in the context of introducing QR codes for entrepreneurs in St. Petersburg in order to control the requirements of safe activities during the pandemic. St. Petersburg was chosen as the region under study, since Moscow is closely connected with the federal government and does not fully reflect the regional peculiarities of the fight against the pandemic, at least because of the redundancy of resources in the capital. In turn, other regions of Russia are not as technologically advanced as St. Petersburg to demonstrate the use of big data during the COVID-19 pandemic. To determine the role of COVID-19 in accelerating the introduction of big data into the political process, I use the multiple streams framework in conjunction with the model of the political cycle. To study the very process of using big data, I focus on the actors in this process, their interests and values, namely, “data analysts” and “decision makers”. Thus, my model combines a case study from the point of view of a dynamic process with causal relationships and from the point of view of the actors involved in this process. To analyse the case, I used the method of included observation, which implies participation in several meetings on the development of measures to support enterprises, as well as the study of documents - resolutions of the Government of St. Petersburg, internal accounting documents and official websites. As a result, the case under review appears to be a clear illustration of a regional initiative in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and how big data has been used to overcome the economic impact of the pandemic at the regional level. The pandemic has not only become a “window of opportunity” for regional authorities to pursue their own policies in the fight against COVID-19, but also made it possible for middle-level actors to take the initiative and promote their own decision on the regional agenda. The case of St. Petersburg demonstrates that the process of digitalization using big data occurs not only from the top down through the implementation of the national strategy and not only from the bottom up through the integration of private digital services. Mid-level structures also influence the digitalization process through the promotion of their products and services, using “windows of opportunity”, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

ІНСТРУМЕНТАРІЙ ПОЛІТИКИ СПРИЯННЯ ІНОЗЕМНИМ ІНВЕСТИЦІЯМ: МОНІТОРИНГ ТА ВИКЛИКИ В УМОВАХ ВІДНОВЛЕННЯ УКРАЇНСЬКОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ

Background. The purpose of the article is to develop proposals for improving the policy of foreign investment promotion under the conditions of recovery of the Ukrainian economy considering the peculiarities of the methods and mechanisms of using foreign investment promotion tools, generalizing the domestic experience of their application. The article critically summarizes the experience of developing the Ukrainian foreign investment promotion policy, which allows for determining the direction of its adaptation in modern conditions. Methods. A definition is provided for the concept of "policy to promote foreign investment". In accordance with the objectives of the study, monitoring of fiscal, financial, and administrative instruments is carried out, and the selection of methods and policy instruments is based on the author's approaches to their typology. Results. An assumption has been made that the recovery of Ukraine's economy based on the attraction of foreign investments needs to take into account the results of the previous domestic experience of using the tools of the investment promotion policy. The limitations of the use of fiscal policy instruments, which necessitate the coordination of the system of the country's economic policies, are determined. Defects in the practice of applying financial policy instruments are identified. The experience of reforming the system of administrative instruments is summarized. Based on the results of the research, the factors that lead to the formation of a new political cycle of determining priorities, goals, tasks, and designing policy measures for the promotion of foreign investments have been identified. Сonclusions. The article substantiates the importance of designing measures to influence the investment environment and investment activity based on a comprehensive and coordinated approach to the use of policy instruments, ensuring the balance of stakeholders' interests, taking into account changes in the external environment of policy formation, restrictions and challenges related to the current state of the economy.

Ideology and Performance in Public Organizations

We combine personnel records of the United States federal bureaucracy from 1997 to 2019 with administrative voter registration data to study how ideological alignment between politicians and bureaucrats affects turnover and performance. We document significant partisan cycles and turnover among political appointees. By contrast, we find no political cycles in the civil service. At any point in time, a sizable share of bureaucrats is ideologically misaligned with their political leaders. We study the performance implications of this misalignment for the case of procurement officers. Exploiting presidential transitions as a source of “within‐bureaucrat” variation in political alignment, we find that procurement contracts overseen by misaligned officers exhibit greater cost overruns and delays. We provide evidence consistent with a general “morale effect,” whereby misaligned bureaucrats are less motivated to pursue the organizational mission. Our results thus help to shed some of the first light on the costs of ideological misalignment within public organizations.

Political Cycles of Media Repression

Political Cycles of Media Repression

Political budget cycles in military expenditures: A meta-analysis

In this study, a meta-regression analysis is performed of studies that have examined whether military expenditures are affected by election cycles. Theoretically, the direction of these cycles is not immediately clear. This ambiguity stems mainly from the trade-off governments face when elections are upcoming. On the one hand, the incumbent government may try to improve the odds of being re-elected by boosting the performance of the national economy. One way is by increasing the procurement from the domestic defense industry using additional defense spending. On the other hand, it might be more favorable for the ruling cabinet to cut defense spending in an election year to finance expansions in other public spending categories that are preferred more by voters. The empirical studies considered in this meta-analysis are very different in nature concerning the election measure constructed, the sample of countries used, the time periods covered, model specification, estimation method, and publication outlet. Based on more than two hundred estimates, the main results indicate that there is only a weak negative genuine effect of elections on military expenditures. This finding suggests that governments follow a more contractionary policy in defense spending when elections are approaching. However, it also appears that this election effect substantially differs across country samples and relies to a great extent on certain country-specific characteristics. In particular, it turns out that the relationship between elections and military spending is likely to be positive in countries where the defense industry has some considerable political influence and economic power. Also, in countries that have to deal with serious security risks, this positive relationship is likely to prevail. Finally, I do not find any evidence that a publication bias inflates the election effect found among the considered studies. This is partly explained by the fact that both positive, as well as, negative results are theoretically plausible and, therefore, apparently equally likely to be published.

Using the Comparative Agendas Project to Understand Policy Priorities in Presidential Agendas in Brazil, Ecuador and Mexico

The Comparative Agendas Project (CAP) is an initiative that has made the comparative study of policy agendas possible. This article introduces a dataset on three Latin American countries to describe policy priorities in presidential agendas. Therefore, we use our data to explore the policy priorities of the current Brazilian, Ecuadorian and Mexican presidents. The study offers a systematic descriptive analysis of executive policy agendas to find patterns of policy attention in presidential agendas using the CAP. The analysis starts by identifying the issues that catch most of the presidents' attention (policy priorities), and the dynamics of policy change in policy priorities in Brazil, Ecuador and Mexico presidential agendas are described. The effects of democratisation, elections, and change of political party between elections for the executive branch are some factors explaining the policy priorities and policy changes in presidential agendas. We explore the effects of political factors and cycles and whether these variables affect policy priorities. Finally, the study discusses the importance of partisan and institutional characteristics and challenges the influence of authoritative presidential powers on defining policy priorities.

Mexico City—Ambitions and Challenges of Integrated Risk Management in a Fractured Urban Planning Context

Among the growing number of megacities, Mexico City stands out for its size and population, but also for its challenges with respect to environmental risk management, fractured governance and marked contrasts in urban conditions. In the last couple of decades, Mexico City has been praised for pioneering new management structures for planning and policy development, driving an approach rooted in a strong social commitment and sustainability agenda, with more integrated decision-making across government institutions. Among these instruments is the recent Law of Integrated Risk Management and Civil Protection of Mexico City, which boldly steps ahead of national legislation, moving from a reactive to a precautionary approach to disaster risk under the banner of stakeholder co-responsibility. However, this paper shows that Mexico City has also been the stage of innovative policies that have been hijacked by the powerful, tainted by corruption and reinterpreted to fit financial interests, or simply abandoned with the arrival of new administrations. The efficiency of these innovative strategies has therefore thus far been limited by discretionary practices and poor communication and socialisation. Our research over the past 5 years has explored risk management processes in Mexico and Mexico City through a transdisciplinary investigation of the vulnerability to climate change-related hydro-meteorological risks in low-income urban areas, and the capacities to manage risk at the community and institutional levels. Drawing on this research, this paper describes a range of accomplishments in urban and environmental policy innovation in Mexico City in recent years with relevance to risk management, and the opportunities for learning arising from the challenges, limitations, and failures. The paper argues that, despite extensive existing knowledge of the socio-technical elements of risk in the city, in particular in relation to hydro-meteorological and seismic risks, fragmented urban development policies and institutions have contributed to increasing the vulnerability of poor communities in high-risk areas of the city. The paper concludes that addressing the challenges of integrated risk management in this fractured urban planning context will require that the recently-created institutions are adaptive, to cope with evolving socio-economic contexts and physical hazards, build strong links with academia to harness social and technical knowledge, design long-term plans integrated across tiers of government to increase coordination, and generate strong and inclusive engagement of the city’s heterogeneous communities. These elements are crucial to allow Mexico City’s ambitions of integrated risk management to survive political cycles and avoid appropriation by short-term financial interests over real risk reduction.