Police Force Size Research Articles

Size isn't everything: Understanding the relationship between police workforce and crime problems

If and how policing affects crime has long been studied. On the relationship between police force size and crime, different authors come to different conclusions. This study examines the relationship between police resourcing, including workforce size, structure and stability over time using data for 42 police forces in the UK over a 13-year period.We construct two novel panel datasets. The first comprises measures of police workforce Size, Structure and Stability. The second provides measures of both crime frequency and crime severity. Issues of endogeneity make the modelling of the police-crime association complicated. Consequently, we analyse the data using a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model which is capable of forecasting a temporal sequence of the interdependencies between police-crime relationships.Changes in total police personnel play an important role in reducing both crime frequency and severity, but the findings are more nuanced than this. Results highlight that the structure and stability of police organisations are important although these impacts are not always the same for crime volume and crime severity. We find that increases in frontline (non-sworn) support staff are associated with reductions in crime, while turnover rates of police staff are associated with increases in crime. In contrast, changes to the number of sworn police officers do not appear to be a good predictor of crime volume.The findings suggest that investment in frontline support staff and the development of strategies to retain skills and knowledge by reducing staff turnover may be efficient approaches for Police Forces to maximise the impact on crime of their workforce in resource-pressed policing settings. While previous research has found that police force size has a limited effect on crime, our findings indicate that more nuanced measurements of police resourcing are necessary to understand how police impact upon crime risk. The idea of police forces using basic officer-to-population ratios to make staffing decisions appears outdated and over-simplistic.

THE INJUSTICE OF UNDER-POLICING IN AMERICA

THE INJUSTICE OF UNDER-POLICING IN AMERICA

Police Force Size and Civilian Race.

We report novel empirical estimates of the race-specific effects of larger police forces in the United States. Each additional police officer abates approximately 0.1 homicides. In per capita terms, effects are twice as large for Black versus White victims. Larger police forces also make fewer arrests for serious crimes, with larger reductions for crimes with Black suspects, implying that police force growth does not increase racial disparities among the most serious charges. At the same time, larger police forces make more arrests for low-level "quality-of-life" offenses, with effects that imply a disproportionate impact for Black Americans.

The Effect of Police Layoffs on Crime: Results from a Natural Experiment Involving New Jersey’s Two Largest Cities

The current study tests the effect of police layoffs on crime through a natural experiment involving Newark and Jersey City, New Jersey’s two largest municipalities. In response to severe budget shortfalls resulting from the economic recession beginning in 2008, officials in both Newark and Jersey City explored police layoffs as a potential component of their cutback strategies. In November 2010, the Newark Police Department terminated 13% of the police force while Jersey City officials were able to avert any layoffs from occurring. The current study uses monthly Part 1 crime counts spanning from 2006 to 2015 to measure the effect of the police layoffs on crime in Newark. Findings of time series generalized least squares regression models using panel data indicate the police layoffs were associated with significant increases of violent crime, murder, robbery, and larceny theft in Newark as compared to Jersey City. This study contributes to the literature on the relationship between police force size and crime by demonstrating sudden, drastic reductions in police force size may generate significant crime increases.

Police Force Size and Civilian Race

We report the first empirical estimate of the race-specific effects of larger police forces in the United States. Each additional police officer abates approximately 0.1 homicides. In per capita terms, effects are twice as large for Black versus white victims. At the same time, larger police forces make more arrests for low-level “quality-of-life” offenses, with effects that imply a disproportionate burden for Black Americans. Notably, cities with large Black populations do not share equally in the benefits of investments in police manpower. Our results provide novel empirical support for the popular narrative that Black communities are simultaneously over and under-policed.

American crime drops: Investigating the breaks, dips and drops in temporal homicide

ObjectivesWhile a great deal of attention has been given to the 1990s crime drop, less is known about the more recent decline in homicide rates that occurred in several large U.S. cities. This paper aims to explore whether these represent two distinct drops via statistical evidence of structural breaks in longitudinal homicide trends and explore potentially differing explanations for the two declines. Methods: Using homicide data on a large sample of U.S. cities from 1990 to 2011, we test for structural breaks in temporal homicide rates. Combining census data and a time series approach, we also examine the role structural features, demographic shifts, and crime control strategies played in the changes in homicide rates over time. Results: Statistical evidence demonstrates two structural breaks in homicide trends, with one trend reflecting the 1990s crime drop (1994–2002) and another trend capturing a second decline (2007–2011). Time series analysis confirms previous research findings about the contributions of structural conditions (e.g., disadvantage) and crime control strategies (e.g., police force size) to the crime drop of the 1990s, but these factors cannot account for the more recent drop with the exception of police presence. Conclusions: Although both structural conditions and crime control strategies are critical to the longitudinal trends in homicide rates over the entire span from 1990 to 2011, different factors account for these two distinct temporal trends.

Conclusions from the history of research into the effects of police force size on crime—1968 through 2013: a historical systematic review

We describe and explain how the findings from nonexperimental studies of the relationship between police force size and crime have changed over time. We conduct a systematic review of 62 studies and 229 findings of police force size and crime, from 1971 through 2013. Only studies of U.S. policing and containing standard errors of estimates were included. Using the robust variance estimation technique for meta-analysis, we show the history of study findings and effect sizes. We look at the influence of statistical methods and units of analysis, and time period of studies’ data, as well as variation in police force size over time. Findings vary considerably over time. However, compared to research standards and in comparison to effect sizes calculated for police practices in other meta-analyses, the overall effect size for police force size on crime is negative, small, and not statistically significant. Changes in research methods and units of analysis cannot account for fluctuations in findings. Finally, there is extremely little variation in police force size per capita over time, making it difficult to estimate the relationship with reliability. This line of research has exhausted its utility. Changing policing strategy is likely to have a greater impact on crime than adding more police.

The Murder Mystery: Police Effectiveness and Homicide

Previous aggregate analyses of the effect of police on crime show that increases in police staffing are especially effective at preventing homicide. This conflicts with evidence that suggests standard police methods should be more effective at preventing robbery, auto theft, and other property crimes. My objective is to reconcile the two. Regression of crime rates on uniformed police staffing and other economic and demographic covariates, for a panel of 59 US cities for the period 1970–2013. Lagged crime rates are strong and statistically significant predictors of both policing staffing and crime rates, particularly homicide. When lags are included in the specification, the apparent effect of police on homicide drops by more than 70 %; there is little change in the effect of police on other crimes. Findings are robust with respect to specification and method. Previous studies omitted lags and overstated the effectiveness of police on homicide. Because murder accounts for almost 40 % of all costs of crime in US cities, it is no longer clear whether increasing police force size is a cost-effective way to cut crime. Improving police tactics is more likely to work and less expensive.

The Impact of Police Strength and Arrest Productivity on Fear of Crime and Subjective Assessments of the Police

We explore the effect of police strength and arrest productivity on citizens' fear of crime and perceived risk of victimization, as well as their subjective perceptions of the police including their confidence in the police and ratings of police response time. Police strength is measured as the rate of officers per 1,000 and productivity is calculated as the average number of arrests per officer; we also controlled for the crime rate using crimes reported to the police. We use nationally representative survey data (n = 1,005) and conduct a supplemental analysis of data drawn from a representative sample of urban counties (n = 1,500). Police force size and productivity have limited and inconsistent effects on fear of crime, perceived risk, and ratings of response time and no apparent effects on confidence in the police. We also find a modest yet statistically significant negative effect of police confidence on fear of crime. Our findings indicate that it is questionable whether adding more police will reduce fear or perceived risk of victimization to any measurable degree. Consequently, we suggest that rather than hiring binges and increased arrests, the focus should be instead on making positive contacts with citizens. Keywords: Fear of crime; Police strength; Arrest productivity; Confidence in police; Police response time ratings Language: en

Prześladowania Żydów w Holandii, Francji i Belgii, 1940–1945 w ujęciu porównawczym: podobieństwa, różnice, przyczyny

At the beginning of the occupation, France, Holland and Belgium found themselves in a similar situation. But when we look at the ratio of victims and survivors during the Holocaust in Western Europe, France and Holland are polar opposites: in France 25 percent of around 320,000 Jews did not survive the persecutions, whereas the ratio in Holland was 75 percent of 140,000. Belgium lies in the middle of the scale – 40 percent dead out of 66,000 Jews. In order to understand the source of these differences, the authors compare the methods applied by the occupation authorities and their anti-Jewish policies, the involvement and the size of the local police forces and German police, as well as the jurisdictional disputes between these formations.

Structural Determinants of Municipal Police Force Size in Large Cities Across Canada

Substantial theoretical and empirical attention has been directed at isolating the structural conditions that lead to shifts in the size of metropolitan police departments in the United States. These studies rely heavily on ethnic and racial threat explanations, which imply that larger police forces will be employed in jurisdictions with larger minority populations. It is entirely unclear, though, whether such accounts are applicable outside the United States. This study fills this void in the literature by assessing the extent to which ethnic threat hypotheses can explain variations in police strength using data on 40 large Canadian cities from 1996 to 2006. Results show that the size of the minority population significantly influences the size of metropolitan police departments.

The Persistent Significance of Racial and Economic Inequality on the Size of Municipal Police Forces in the United States, 1980–2010

Recent empirical analyses of the social factors that predict municipal police force size support racial threat theory by suggesting that the racial composition of cities leads to enhanced social control efforts; however, these studies largely ignore explanations based on social class or the influence of an ethnic threat. We examine these alternative threat hypotheses by assessing the potential influence that recent increases in economic inequality and the substantial rise in the Hispanic population in the United States may have had on efforts to control crime. Using an advanced estimation technique to isolate the determinants of police force size in a large sample of U.S. cities between 1980 and 2010, we find that racial threat and economic inequality work both independently and jointly to produce substantial shifts in the size of police forces after accounting for levels of crime as well as other important demographic and structural characteristics. Furthermore, period interactions suggest that racial threat appears to have expanded over the last several decades. Together, our study uncovers novel interactive effects and identifies shifts over time, thus refining existing theoretical assumptions.

Policing class and race in urban America

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to integrate conflict theory's class and race perspectives to explain police force size in large cities in the USA.Design/methodology/approachData on US cities with populations of 250,000 or greater (n=64) are used to test whether class and/or racial factors impact police force size. The data are analyzed using OLS regression.FindingsThis study finds that class and race factors combine to impact police force size concurrently. By adjusting the model specifications of a recent article, which concludes police force size in large US cities is determined by racial factors and not class, this study shows that two class‐related factors – racial economic inequality and poverty – significantly influence police force size. Additionally, this analysis calls into question the importance of racial factors; specifically, the threat caused by minority presence and a city's history of racially coded violence.Originality/valueFew conflict theorists have attempted to integrate class and race in order to explain police force size. The results of this study show that racial economic inequality interacts with poverty (class threat) and that they jointly affect police force size. This adds further nuance to the argument of the complex causal interaction of intersectionality and supports theoretical, methodological, and public policy shifts that blend class inequality and racial threat to explain police force size.

The Effect of Privately Provided Police Services on Crime

Research demonstrates that police reduce crime. The implication of this research for investment in a particular form of extra police services, those provided by private institutions, has not been rigorously examined. We capitalize on the discontinuity in police force size at the geographic boundary of a private university police department to estimate the effect of the extra police services on crime. Extra police provided by the university generate approximately 45-60 percent fewer crimes in the surrounding neighborhood. These effects appear to be similar to other estimates in the literature.

Racial Residential Segregation and Social Control: A Panel Study of the Variation in Police Strength Across U.S Cities, 1980–2010

Despite a great deal of theoretical and empirical attention given to racial residential segregation and its influence on a number of social problems in the United States, few scholars have examined the role that this persistent form of racial inequality plays in shaping the magnitude of formal social control efforts. Our study examines this relationship by assessing the potential influence that the isolation of minorities may have on efforts to control crime in urban centers across the United States. Using a pooled time-series regression technique well suited for the analysis of aggregate, longitudinal data, we assess the potential influence of racial segregation on the size of municipal police departments in 170 U.S. cities between 1980 and 2010. After accounting for minority group size, economic threat, crime, and disorganization, we find that racial residential segregation has a significant non-linear effect on police force size. Cities with the most racially integrated populations have the smallest police presence but at very high levels of segregation, police strength levels off. This finding is consistent with expectations derived from the contact hypothesis. Under such conditions, majority group members appear to be less inclined to demand greater crime control measures such as increased police protection. Period interactions with residential segregation also suggest that this relationship has grown stronger in each decade since 1980. Overall, our study provides strong support for threat theories and the contact hypothesis but offers necessary refinements.

INTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE IN U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS: THE CONTEXTUAL INFLUENCES OF POLICE AND SOCIAL SERVICES*

Although community responses to the problem of intimate partner violence typically focus on increasing and improving policing and social services, few studies have examined the relationship among police force size, social service providers, and women's safety at home. To address this issue, we use data from the National Crime Victimization Survey to examine patterns of intimate partner violence for 40 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over a 16‐year period (1989–2004). We analyze the data using three‐level multilevel models, with individual respondents (N = 487,166) nested within years, nested within MSAs. Net of other important individual and contextual factors, the results show that women's likelihood of victimization is significantly lower in MSAs that employ more sworn officers per capita, whereas the states’ mandatory arrest laws are not found to have significant independent effects. Above and beyond the effects of police force size, we also find a significant negative relationship between the size of the social service workforce and intimate partner violence. Future research should develop collaborative data collection efforts to examine the specific activities of police and social service workers in dealing with intimate partner violence so that the mechanisms underlying these significant relationships can be understood more clearly.

The Effects of Social Disorganization and Police Force Size on Police Performance

This study explores the effects of social disorganization and police force size on police performance, by paying particular attention to a typology of police performance that emphasizes the importance of capturing the various dimensions of performance in an organization. The author suggests that police performance should be categorized along two dimensions: the nature of the performance indicator (output or outcome) and the objective of policing strategy (crime reduction and citizen satisfaction). The author argues that outcome-related police performance is influenced by social disorganization and output-related police performance is influenced by police force size, and tests these hypotheses with data from the Social Capital Benchmark Survey, Law Enforcement Management and Administrative Statistics, and the Uniform Crime Report. Theoretical implications are discussed.

Macro social determinants of black police force size

PurposeConsistent with both conflict and economic theories of crime control, recent research indicates that there is a linear, positive association between the racial composition of cities and black employment as law enforcement officers. The purpose of this paper is to distinguish between these competing explanations for variations in the racial make‐up of police departments and examine the nonlinear effects of the relative population size of blacks on black police force size for a sample of US cities.Design/methodology/approachThe paper specifies and estimates four OLS regression equations to assess the linear and nonlinear effects of the percentage of blacks on black police force size for a sample of US cities.FindingsAs predicted by economic theory, the percentage of blacks exhibits a positive, nonlinear relationship with black police force size. Thus, it would appear that as their relative population size increases, blacks are able to translate their numerical advantage into pressure resources to secure coveted positions in law enforcement.Research limitations/implicationsWhile the demonstration of a significant, nonlinear relationship between the percentage of blacks and black police force size lends substantial credence to economic theory, it reveals nothing about the manner in which numerical advantage is converted into political clout and, ultimately, employment in law enforcement (or other municipal agencies). Clearly, if a better understanding this process us ti be gained, measures need to be identified and devised for the casual mechanisms that mediate the influence of the relative population size of blacks on black police force size.Originality/valueThis paper represents the first attempt to distinguish between economic and conflict explanations for variations in black police force size among municipalities.

Reintroducing “time” into the time series analysis of the police size‐crime relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to examine the causal relationship between crime rate measures (per 100,000 population) and police force size (full‐time employees per 100,000) within Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The data are annual, covering the years 1930 to 2004.Design/methodology/approachThe authors specify and estimate ARIMA and error correction models to examine the bivariate association between police force strength and total, property, and personal crime rates for a large, mid‐western city.FindingsConsistent with past research, the bivariate ARIMA analyses yield no evidence of a short‐term association between police force size and crime. However, the parameter estimates from error correction models indicate that changes in the level of crime have a longer‐term impact on police force strength.Research limitations/implicationsThis study focuses on a single municipality. Hence, before one can generalize to cities as a whole, the findings need to be replicated in other jurisdictions. Nonetheless, the findings do suggest that municipalities are more responsive to changes in the level of crime than prior ARIMA analyses seemed to indicate.Practical implicationsThe findings point to the conclusion that, when studying causal processes that operate over time, one must be careful not to remove long run information from the data in the attempt to control for the spurious effects of autocorrelation.Originality/valueThis paper represents the first attempt to apply error correction models to the examination of the longitudinal relationship between crime and police force size.

Basic Command Units (BCUs) and Local Authorities: Future Mechanisms of Police Accountability and Service Delivery

This article considers the origin and growth of the police Basic Command Unit (BCU) and its impact on the internal management of police forces. It assesses the changing perception of appropriate manpower levels for BCUs and the impact of this on the size of these police units. It evaluates the absence of any fixed professional criteria in the determination of viability of the BCU and notes the similarity between this and the determination of size of police forces. It notes that the effectiveness of the BCU as measured by HMIC has not included civilian staff even though these now make up a third of BCU personnel and contribute to the overall efficiency of this unit of policing. Finally it reflects on the statutory basis planned for BCUs within the Police and Justice Act 2006 and the Home Secretary's requirement made in 2005 that in future all BCU boundaries should be made coterminous with those of the local authority. It also considers the current debate concerning the determination of viability of BCUs in terms of manpower levels and responsibilities. It presents some current viewpoints relating to factors that influence the overall efficiency and effectiveness of BCUs and potential developments that could serve to encourage local police governance within a local government framework designed to deliver effective community safety and local joint crime reduction strategies.