Consolidation durvalumab after definitive chemoradiation therapy (CRT) has become the new standard of care for patients with unresectable locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC). However, only a fraction of patients can benefit from it, and current decision-making procedures have limited accuracy. Blood-based tumor mutational burden (bTMB) is a promising biomarker, but whether bTMB alone or combined with circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) can predict the efficacy of definitive CRT and immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in patients with LA-NSCLC remains unclear. This cohort study enrolled patients diagnosed with unresectable LA-NSCLC from 2018 to 2022. Patients were assigned to the cohort A receiving definitive CRT alone (intensity modulated radiation therapy or volumetric modulated arc therapy with the prescribed dose of 60 Gy, concurrently or sequentially with two or more cycles of platinum-based doublet chemotherapy), or cohort B undergoing definitive CRT and immunotherapy. Peripheral blood specimens were collected before and after CRT and subjected to next-generation sequencing panel to analyze ctDNA and bTMB. The dynamic change in bTMB (∆bTMB) was calculated as the bTMB level after CRT minus the baseline bTMB level. Potential correlations were identified by Spearman's correlation tests and expressed as R coefficients. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and areas under the curve (AUCs) were employed to evaluate the predictive power of different models on survival. A total of 73 LA-NSCLC patients were included, with 70 (95.9%) at stage III and 3 at stage II (4.1%). Thirty-six patients (49.3%) assigned to the cohort A were treated with CRT alone and 37 (50.7%) in the cohort B receiving CRT and ICIs. Patients with CRT + ICIs in the cohort B showed significantly improved overall survival (OS; P < 0.01) and progression-free survival (PFS; P = 0.02) than those with CRT alone. Baseline bTMB at cutoff values of 4 to 22 did not predict outcomes (all P > 0.10), while patients with increased bTMB (∆bTMB > 0) after CRT had significantly worse OS and PFS (both P < 0.01) than those with decreased or stable bTMB (∆bTMB ≤ 0). ∆bTMB was independent of the ctDNA level after CRT (P = 0.76, R = -0.04). Patients were further divided into 3 groups based on ∆bTMB and post-CRT ctDNA (∆bTMB > 0/detectable ctDNA vs. ∆bTMB ≤ 0/detectable ctDNA vs. ∆bTMB ≤ 0/undetectable ctDNA), and significant survival differences were observed in the pairwise comparisons of 3 groups (all P < 0.05). The model of ∆bTMB combined with post-CRT ctDNA status exhibited the optimal predictive power on both OS (AUC = 0.80) and PFS (AUC = 0.75) and outperformed each factor, which had been respectively validated in the cohort A and B as well. Dynamic bTMB (∆bTMB) combined with post-CRT ctDNA status is a novel and effective biomarker model of predicting survival outcomes in LA-NSCLC patients treated with CRT ± ICIs, and outperforms each individual feature.
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