Presence Of Permafrost Research Articles

Permafrost slows Arctic riverbank erosion.

The rate of river migration affects the stability of Arctic infrastructure and communities1,2 and regulates the fluxes of carbon3,4, nutrients5 and sediment6,7 to the oceans. However, predicting how the pace of river migration will change in a warming Arctic8 has so far been stymied by conflicting observations about whether permafrost9 primarily acts to slow10,11 or accelerate12,13 river migration. Here we develop new computational methods that enable the detection of riverbank erosion at length scales 5-10times smaller than the pixel size in satellite imagery, an innovation that unlocks the ability to quantify erosion at the sub-monthly timescales when rivers undergo their largest variations in water temperature and flow. We use these high-frequency observations to constrain the extent to which erosion is limited by the thermal condition of melting the pore ice that cements bank sediment14, a requirement that will disappear when permafrost thaws, versus the mechanical condition of having sufficient flow to transport the sediment comprising the riverbanks, a condition experienced by all rivers15. Analysis of high-resolution data from the Koyukuk River, Alaska, shows that the presence of permafrost reduces erosion rates by 47%. Using our observations, we calibrate and validate a numerical model that can be applied to diverse Arctic rivers. The model predicts that full permafrost thaw may lead to a 30-100% increase in the migration rates of Arctic rivers.

First insights into global permafrost-agroecosystems and recommendations for policymakers

First insights into global permafrost-agroecosystems and recommendations for policymakers Melissa Ward Jones discusses a recent paper published in Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research of the first global study on permafrost-agroecosystems, published by members of the International Permafrost Association Permafrost-agroecosystem Action Group. When one thinks of high-latitude and mountainous regions, one usually thinks of cold and snow, not agriculture. But agriculture does occur in these areas. The climate of these regions limits the options for which crops to grow, and chosen animal species, such as yaks and reindeer, are adapted to cold. These regions also contain permafrost, or perennially frozen ground, a unique feature of these regions. The response to thawing permafrost, caused either by climate warming or land use change for cultivation, is varied (Ward Jones, 2024). These responses range from simple increases in ground temperatures to ground surface collapse when permafrost is ice-rich. The presence of permafrost and its response to thaw can add additional challenges to agricultural activities.

Understanding the mechanism of gully erosion in the alpine region through an interpretable machine learning approach

In the alpine region, climate warming has led to the retreat of glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost. This has intensified water cycling, soil erosion, and increased the occurrence of natural disasters in the alpine region. This study investigated the Lhasa River Basin in the southern Tibetan Plateau, serving as a representative case study of a typical alpine basin, with a specific focus on gully erosion. Based on field investigations and interpretation using high-resolution satellite remote sensing images, the Random Forest (RF) algorithm was applied to evaluate gully erosion susceptibility on watershed level. The Shapley Additive Interpretation method was then used to interpret the RF model and gain deeper insights into the influencing variables of gully erosion. The results showed that the RF model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) accuracy of 0.99 and 0.98 for the training and testing datasets, respectively, indicating an outstanding performance of the model. The resulting susceptibility map based on the RF model shows that areas with moderate and higher levels of gully erosion susceptibility are covering 50 % of the basin. The model interpretation results indicated that elevation, slope, permafrost, rainstorm, silt loam topsoil, human activity, stream power, and vegetation were the explaining variables with the highest importance for gully erosion occurrence. Different variables are characterized by specific thresholds promoting gully erosion such as: i) elevations higher than 4950 m, ii) slopes steeper than 13.5°, iii) extreme rainstorms longer than 11 days per year, iv) silt loam topsoil, v) presence of permafrost, vi) stream power index higher than 1.2, and vii) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) lower than 0.25. Our findings provide the scientific basis to improve soil erosion control in such highly vulnerable alpine area.

Robust Reconstruction of Historical Climate Change From Permafrost Boreholes

AbstractReconstructing historical climate change from deep ground temperature measurements in cold regions is often complicated by the presence of permafrost. Existing methods are typically unable to account for latent heat effects due to the freezing and thawing of the active layer. In this work, we propose a novel method for reconstructing historical ground surface temperature (GST) from borehole temperature measurements that accounts for seasonal thawing and refreezing of the active layer. Our method couples a recently developed fast numerical modeling scheme for two‐phase heat transport in permafrost soils with an ensemble‐based method for approximate Bayesian inference. We evaluate our method on two synthetic test cases covering both cold and warm permafrost conditions as well as using real data from a 100 m deep borehole on Sardakh Island in northeastern Siberia. Our analysis of the Sardakh Island borehole data confirms previous findings that GST in the region have likely risen by 5–9°C between the pre‐industrial period of 1750–1855 and 2012. We also show that latent heat effects due to seasonal freeze‐thaw have a substantial impact on the resulting reconstructed surface temperatures. We find that neglecting the thermal dynamics of the active layer can result in biases of roughly −1°C in cold conditions (i.e., mean annual ground temperature below −5°C) and as much as −2.6°C in warmer conditions where substantial active layer thickening (>200 cm) has occurred. Our results highlight the importance of considering seasonal freeze‐thaw in GST reconstructions from permafrost boreholes.

Permafrost Distribution in the Southern Carpathians, Romania, Derived From Machine Learning Modeling

ABSTRACTComputer modeling of sporadic and isolated patches of mountain permafrost distribution is difficult to implement without overestimating it. The main challenge is to determine the very areas where the criteria for permafrost maintenance are met. This paper aims to modeling the permafrost distribution in the Southern Carpathians (SC), a typical marginal periglacial mountain range. For this purpose, a collection of 883 bottom temperature of late winter snow cover (BTS) points was used as a proxy for permafrost presence or absence in order to train several machine learning models. The performances of each model were evaluated with AUC with varying between 0.99 for Maxent and 0.74 for K‐nearest neighbors and most models (five) exhibiting values between 0.82 and 0.86. Other tests such as confusion matrices, sensitivity analyses, data shuffling, and data size reduction tests indicated that Maxent, AdaBoost, and support vector machine offered the best results while logistic regression, neural network, and gradient boosting exhibited rather poor permafrost distributions. The final ensemble median model indicated a total permafrost area of 19.2 km2 occupying 1%–9% of the alpine area of the studied massifs. NDVI proved crucial for permafrost prediction because it allows delimiting the debris surfaces where permafrost is probable.

Simulating the Thermal Regime and Surface Energy Balance of a Permafrost‐Underlain Forest in Mongolia

AbstractForests overlap with large parts of the northern hemisphere permafrost area, and representing canopy processes is therefore crucial for simulating thermal and hydrological conditions in these regions. Forests impact permafrost through the modulation of radiative fluxes and exchange of turbulent fluxes, precipitation interception and regulation of transpiration. Forests also feature distinct soil layers of litter and organic matter, which play central roles for the infiltration and evaporation of water, while also providing thermal insulation for deeper ground layers. In this study, we present a new module within the CryoGrid community model to simulate forest ecosystems and their impact on the surface water and energy balance. The module includes a big‐leaf vegetation scheme with adaptations for canopy heat storage and transpiration. Furthermore, we account for the effect of surface litter layers on water and energy transfer. We show that the model is capable of simulating radiation, snow cover and ground temperatures below a deciduous needleleaf forest on a north‐facing slope in the Khentii Mountains in Central Mongolia. A sensitivity analysis of topographic aspect and ecosystem configuration confirms the important role of the litter layers for the energy and water balance of the ground. Furthermore, it suggests that the presence of permafrost is primarily linked to topographic aspect rather than the presence of forest at this site. The presented model scheme can be used to study the development of the ground thermal regime in forests, including the state of permafrost, under different climate, ecosystem, and land use scenarios.

Modelling air, ground surface and permafrost temperature variability across four dissimilar valleys, Yukon, Canada

Spatial maps of the air and ground thermal regime were generated for four Yukon valleys. The aim was to model air, ground surface and ground temperature (at fine spatial resolution) using locally measured inverted surface lapse rates (SLR), to better predict temperature along an elevation gradient. These local models were then compared to a regional permafrost probability model, which utilized differing inversion assumptions, as well as circumpolar and national models generated without considering inversions. Overall, permafrost probability in the regional model matched well with the local models where assumptions of treeline and inverted SLRs held true. When normal SLRs were assumed, permafrost presence was overestimated in each valley. This discrepancy was greatest at high elevations where permafrost was predicted to be coldest and most widespread. However, the difference between valleys was dependent on surface and subsurface characteristics such as higher snow cover, mature forest or thick organic layers showed a greater disassociation from the air temperature overall. Appropriate characterization of the SLR is essential for accurate predictions of the ground thermal regime’s spatial distribution and permafrost presence. These models also provide a starting point for better predictions of warming in these valleys and other areas subject to inversions of similar magnitudes.

Size–shape–stable isotope (C and O) relationships of cryogenic cave carbonates formed in permafrost settings

Cryogenic cave carbonates (CCCs) genetically related to permafrost are of special interest in paleoclimate research. Their 230Th/U ages provide unique information about the former presence and depth of permafrost in presently permafrost-free areas. Details of CCC formation processes and their diagnostic features, however, remain incompletely understood. In this paper, we report the results of a study of CCCs from two northern Eurasian caves, currently located in permafrost-free rocks. CCCs in the caves occur in a wide range of grain sizes (micrometers to several centimeters). Stable isotope values of different CCC morphotypes (size range of 0.1 to 4 mm) plot within relatively tight clusters in δ18O-δ13C space, regardless of their grain size, indicating that CCCs of the same morphotype, but of different size, formed simultaneously at certain freezing stages. The clusters conform to an overall negative “freezing trend” in δ18O-δ13C space. The position on the trend indicates the relative age of individual morphotypes; scatter of the data in δ18O-δ13C space suggests multiple episodes of freezing (permafrost formation). The systematic characterization of CCC morphologies and the study of fine-size fractions of CCCs provide important insights into the processes involved in CCC formation in caves located in permafrost.

Low-severity fires in the boreal region: reproductive implications for black spruce stands in between stand-replacing fire events.

Stand-replacing crown fires are the most prevalent type of fire regime in boreal forests in North America. However, a substantial proportion of low-severity fires are found within fire perimeters. Here we aimed to investigate the effects of low-severity fires on the reproductive potential and seedling recruitment in boreal forests stands in between stand-replacing fire events. We recorded site and tree characteristics from 149 trees within twelve sites dominated by mature black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] trees in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The presence of fire-scarred trees supported classification of sites as unburned or affected by low-severity fires in recent history. We used non-parametric tests to evaluate differences in site conditions between unburned and low-severity sites, and mixed effect models to evaluate differences in tree age, size, and reproductive traits among unburned trees and trees from low-severity sites. Results showed significantly higher density of dead black spruce trees in low-severity sites, and marginally significant higher presence of permafrost. Trees from low-severity fire sites were significantly older, exhibited significantly lower tree growth, and showed a tendency towards a higher probability of cone presence and percentage of open cones compared to trees from unburned sites. Surviving fire-scarred trees affected by more recent low-severity fires showed a tendency towards higher probability of cone presence and cone production. Density of black spruce seedlings significantly increased with recent low-severity fires. Trees in low-severity sites appeared to have escaped mortality from up to three fires, as indicated by fire scar records and their older ages. Shallow permafrost at low-severity sites may cause lower flammability, allowing areas to act as fire refugia. Low-severity surface fires temporarily enhanced the reproductive capacity of surviving trees and the density of seedlings, likely as a stress response to the fire event.

Permafrost extent sets drainage density in the Arctic

Amplified warming of high latitudes and rapid thaw of frozen ground threaten permafrost carbon stocks. The presence of permafrost modulates water infiltration and flow, as well as sediment transport, on soil-mantled slopes, influencing the balance of advective fluvial processes to diffusive processes on hillslopes in ways that are different from temperate settings. These processes that shape permafrost landscapes also impact the carbon stored on soil-mantled hillslopes via temperature, saturation, and slope stability such that carbon stocks and landscape morphometry should be closely linked. We studied [Formula: see text]69,000 headwater basins between 25° and 90 °N to determine whether the thermal state of the soil sets the balance between hillslope (diffusive) and fluvial (advective) erosion processes, as evidenced by the density of the channel networks (i.e., drainage density) and the proportion of convex to concave topography (hillslopes and river valleys, respectively). Watersheds within permafrost regions have lower drainage densities than regions without permafrost, regardless of watershed glacial history, mean annual precipitation, and relief. We find evidence that advective fluvial processes are inhibited in permafrost landscapes compared to their temperate counterparts. Frozen soils likely inhibit channel development, and we predict that climate warming will lower incision thresholds to promote growth of the channel network in permafrost landscapes. By demonstrating how the balance of advective versus diffusive processes might shift with future warming, we gain insight into the mechanisms that shift these landscapes from sequestering to exporting carbon.

Enhancing mountainous permafrost mapping by leveraging a rock glacier inventory in northeastern Tibetan Plateau

ABSTRACT Our understanding of permafrost distribution is still limited, particularly in mountainous areas where highly heterogeneous environments and a lack of reliable field data tend to prevail. The extensive distribution of rock glaciers in the Qilian Mountains, located in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, offers the opportunity to develop a novel approach for permafrost mapping in mountainous regions. In this study, a total of 1,530 rock glacier records were combined with in situ data to drive machine learning models for estimating permafrost presence. Three machine learning algorithms were adopted, and their accuracies were assessed in both mountains and plains by comparing the mapped permafrost to reserved field data as well as other published permafrost datasets. Among the algorithms tested, the CatBoost model presented the highest accuracy, with an overall accuracy of 83.3%. The model was thus chosen to produce a 250-m resolution permafrost zonation index (PZI) map, which identified a total area of 73.1 × 103 km2 permafrost in the Qilian Mountains, accounting for 39.1% of the area. The map also presented higher accuracy than other published permafrost maps. This study demonstrated that rock glacier records coupled with gradient-boosting machine-learning algorithms can help improve permafrost mapping, especially in the most challenging mountainous permafrost areas.

Статистические характеристики данных температурного мониторинга грунтовых оснований фундаментов зданий города Салехарда за 2018–2023 годы как основа для автоматизации процесса первичной обработки данных

The Arctic today is a dynamically developing territory where the construction and operation of infrastructure are complicated by the presence of permafrost. Climatic changes and anthropogenic factors have a negative impact on their condition. In this regard, studies of the current and forecast state of permafrost in natural and anthropogenic conditions are relevant, which is necessary for the formation of plans for adaptation to climate change, design and engineering surveys work, and risk ma­nagement. Monitoring the temperature regime of soils at the base of the existing infrastructure seems to be the most obvious solution for monitoring the state of permafrost. The object of the study is the soil foundation of buildings erected on permafrost. The subject of the study is data obtained using an automated soil temperature control system for the foundations of capital construction facilities in Salekhard. For the purpose of identifying negative changes in the bearing capacity of permafrost at early stages, the task of determining a set of criteria based on the analysis of temperature monitoring data and their statistical characteristics is solved. In Salekhard wells were drilled at the base of 30 buildings to the depth of the foundation, where thermometric equipment was installed. The sensors measure the soil temperature every 3 hours and transmit it to the server for analysis. As a result, the possibility of using the amplitude of annual fluctuations in the temperature of the soil base and the capacity of the seasonal melt layer under the building to assess the effectiveness of the soil thermal stabilization system is shown. By analyzing the average and maximum temperature values in the bases of objects, it is possible to identify objects with weakened zones. A set of criteria is given for identifying objects with negative changes in the frozen base, and statistical characteristics can serve as a basis for automating the process of processing monitoring data. The information obtained on the parameters of permafrost under buildings will allow us to determine the current state of the soil foundations and predict the development of the situation in order to prevent the destruction of infrastructure.

ОЦЕНКА ПОДЗЕМНОГО СТОКА РЕК ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ ЧАСТИ ВОСТОЧНОГО САЯНА

The results of estimating the groundwater flow for the rivers of the Eastern Sayan, which includes 89 individual watersheds, are presented. Most of the river basins (left tributaries of the Angara River) are located in a fold-mountain area and are poorly covered by the data of the routine observations of river runoff. The groundwater flow of the rivers was determined by a complex hydrological and hydrogeological method of genetic hydrograph separation, taking into account a removal of a part of the flow for the aufeis formation. For unexplored rivers, the groundwater flow was determined by the method of transition coefficients for unit water discharges obtained during the hydrometric survey in the winter low-water period. In the fold-mountain area, the specific groundwater flow varies over a wide range and depends on the landscape and climatic conditions, as well as on the hydrogeological conditions of specific watersheds associated with the presence of permafrost and differences in tectonic activity in different parts of the study area.

TESTING OPTICAL SPECTRAL INDICES FOR ASSESSMENT OF SURFACE CHANGES DUE TO PERMAFROST MELTING ON LIVINGSTON ISLAND, ANTARCTICA

The present study aims to examine the potential of optical satellite data and spectral indices to assess surface changes induced by permafrost melting. Surface changes related to permafrost melting on Livingston Island, Antarctica were examined using optical satellite data from Sentinel-2 sensors of the European Space Agency (ESA). The study area coincides with previous field studies by electrical resistivity tomographic profiles made to establish and visualize the presence of permafrost. Utilizing the advantages of remote sensing methods and calculation of optical indices, it was tracked whether and to what extent there was a surface change and melting of the permafrost in the study area. The observation period encompasses the astral summer seasons from 2016 to 2023. The results show that the combination of different optical indices gives a better understanding of changes in the terrain. The combined use of the Normalized Difference Glacier Index (NDGI), Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI), Normalized Difference Snow and Ice Index (NDSII), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Moisture Stress Index (MSI) indicates for a pronounced trend of melting of the active layer of the permafrost periglacial area of research in March 2016 and 2017, and from January to mid of March 2023.

Recent ground thermo-hydrological changes in a southern Tibetan endorheic catchment and implications for lake level changes

Abstract. Climate change modifies the water and energy fluxes between the atmosphere and the surface in mountainous regions such as the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), which has shown substantial hydrological changes over the last decades, including rapid lake level variations. The ground across the QTP hosts either permafrost or is seasonally frozen, and, in this environment, the ground thermal regime influences liquid water availability, evaporation and runoff. Consequently, climate-induced changes in the ground thermal regime may contribute to variations in lake levels, but the validity of this hypothesis has yet to be established. This study focuses on the cryo-hydrology of the catchment of Lake Paiku (southern Tibet) for the 1980–2019 period. We process ERA5 data with downscaling and clustering tools (TopoSCALE, TopoSUB) to account for the spatial variability of the climate in our forcing data (Fiddes and Gruber, 2012, 2014). We use a distributed setup of the CryoGrid community model (version 1.0) to quantify thermo-hydrological changes in the ground during this period. Forcing data and simulation outputs are validated with data from a weather station, surface temperature loggers and observations of lake level variations. Our lake budget reconstruction shows that the main water input to the lake is direct precipitation (310 mm yr−1), followed by glacier runoff (280 mm yr−1) and land runoff (180 mm yr−1). However, altogether these components do not offset evaporation (860 mm yr−1). Our results show that both seasonal frozen ground and permafrost have warmed (0.17 ∘C per decade 2 m deep), increasing the availability of liquid water in the ground and the duration of seasonal thaw. Correlations with annual values suggest that both phenomena promote evaporation and runoff. Yet, ground warming drives a strong increase in subsurface runoff so that the runoff/(evaporation + runoff) ratio increases over time. This increase likely contributed to stabilizing the lake level decrease after 2010. Summer evaporation is an important energy sink, and we find active-layer deepening only where evaporation is limited. The presence of permafrost is found to promote evaporation at the expense of runoff, consistently with recent studies suggesting that a shallow active layer maintains higher water contents close to the surface. However, this relationship seems to be climate dependent, and we show that a colder and wetter climate produces the opposite effect. Although the present study was performed at the catchment scale, we suggest that this ambivalent influence of permafrost may help to understand the contrasting lake level variations observed between the south and north of the QTP, opening new perspectives for future investigations.

High‐Resolution Maps of Near‐Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning

AbstractPermafrost soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and are locally important because they regulate the hydrologic flux from uplands to rivers. Furthermore, degradation of permafrost soils causes land surface subsidence, damaging infrastructure that is crucial for local communities. Regional and hemispherical maps of permafrost are too coarse to resolve distributions at a scale relevant to assessments of infrastructure stability or to illuminate geomorphic impacts of permafrost thaw. Here we train machine learning models to generate meter‐scale maps of near‐surface permafrost for three watersheds in the discontinuous permafrost region. The models were trained using ground truth determinations of near‐surface permafrost presence from measurements of soil temperature and electrical resistivity. We trained three classifiers: extremely randomized trees (ERTr), support vector machines (SVM), and an artificial neural network (ANN). Model uncertainty was determined using k‐fold cross validation, and the modeled extents of near‐surface permafrost were compared to the observed extents at each site. At‐a‐site near‐surface permafrost distributions predicted by the ERTr produced the highest accuracy (70%–90%). However, the transferability of the ERTr to the sites outside of the training data set was poor, with accuracies ranging from 50% to 77%. The SVM and ANN models had lower accuracies for at‐a‐site prediction (70%–83%), yet they had greater accuracy when transferred to the non‐training site (62%–78%). These models demonstrate the potential for integrating high‐resolution spatial data and machine learning models to develop maps of near‐surface permafrost extent at resolutions fine enough to assess infrastructure vulnerability and landscape morphology influenced by permafrost thaw.

Microbial successional pattern along a glacier retreat gradient from Byers Peninsula, Maritime Antarctica

The retreat of glaciers in Antarctica has increased in the last decades due to global climate change, influencing vegetation expansion, and soil physico-chemical and biological attributes. However, little is known about soil microbiology diversity in these periglacial landscapes. This study characterized and compared bacterial and fungal diversity using metabarcoding of soil samples from the Byers Peninsula, Maritime Antarctica. We identified bacterial and fungal communities by amplification of bacterial 16 S rRNA region V3–V4 and fungal internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1). We also applied 14C dating on soil organic matter (SOM) from six profiles. Physico-chemical analyses and attributes associated with SOM were evaluated. A total of 14,048 bacterial ASVs were obtained, and almost all samples had 50% of their sequences assigned to Actinobacteriota and Proteobacteria. Regarding the fungal community, Mortierellomycota, Ascomycota and Basidiomycota were the main phyla from 1619 ASVs. We found that soil age was more relevant than the distance from the glacier, with the oldest soil profile (late Holocene soil profile) hosting the highest bacterial and fungal diversity. The microbial indices of the fungal community were correlated with nutrient availability, soil reactivity and SOM composition, whereas the bacterial community was not correlated with any soil attribute. The bacterial diversity, richness, and evenness varied according to presence of permafrost and moisture regime. The fungal community richness in the surface horizon was not related to altitude, permafrost, or moisture regime. The soil moisture regime was crucial for the structure, high diversity and richness of the microbial community, specially to the bacterial community. Further studies should examine the relationship between microbial communities and environmental factors to better predict changes in this terrestrial ecosystem.

Seasonal controls on stream metal(loid) signatures in mountainous discontinuous permafrost

We assess physical and chemical processes driving seasonal fluctuations in dissolved (<0.45 μm) trace metal(loid) concentrations in subarctic streams in discontinuous permafrost. Our analysis integrates multiple years of stream hydrometric and geochemical data with geochemical analyses of bedrock, permafrost, and active-layer samples. Three principal flow regimes govern stream hydrology: winter baseflow, spring freshet, and summer high flows. Metal(oid) concentrations in streams respond seasonally to these flow regimes. Baseflows are dominated by discharge of circumneutral-pH groundwater draining fractured bedrock. This discharge acts as a source of metals found as oxyanions or neutrally charged complexes, such as uranium and molybdenum. High stream flows are associated with peak concentrations of aluminium, cobalt, copper, iron, nickel, titanium, and vanadium. Concentrations of the metal cations aluminium, cobalt, copper, nickel, and titanium peak during freshet, when infiltration of snowmelt through organic-rich and moderately acidic soils favors their complexation with dissolved organic carbon. Concentrations of vanadium peak during summer high flows, likely reflecting flow through mineral soils in the active layer and involving reductive dissolution of iron(III)-(oxyhydr)oxides. The seasonal variation of arsenic concentrations is complex; at the majority of catchments it is sourced from shallow flowpaths in the active layer, but it can also be locally associated with discharge of deeper bedrock groundwater, which is spatially constrained by the presence of permafrost. Based on our analysis, we present a conceptual model that describes the flowpaths and processes governing metal(loid) release to streams in discontinuous permafrost. This model provides a framework upon which we consider changes in metal(loid) export into water resources in the context of thawing permafrost.

Hillslope‐Channel Transitions and the Role of Water Tracks in a Changing Permafrost Landscape

AbstractThe Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change, and the effect on hydrologic processes and resulting geomorphic changes to hillslopes and channels is unclear because we lack quantitative models and theory for rapid changes resulting from thawing permafrost. The presence of permafrost modulates water flow and the stability of soil‐mantled slopes, implying that there should be a signature of permafrost processes, including warming‐driven disturbance, in channel network extent. To inform understanding of hillslope‐channel dynamics under changing climates, we examined soil‐mantled hillslopes within a ∼300 km2 area of the Seward Peninsula, western Alaska, where discontinuous permafrost is particularly susceptible to thaw and rapid landscape change. In this study, we pair high‐resolution topographic and satellite data to multi‐annual observations of InSAR‐derived surface displacement over a 5‐year period to quantify spatial variations in topographic change across an upland landscape. We find that neither the basin slope nor the presence of knickzones controls the magnitude of recent surface displacements within the study basin, as may be expected under conceptual models of temperate hillslope evolution. Rather, the highest displacement magnitudes tended to occur at the broad hillslope‐channel transition zone. In this study area, this zone is occupied by water tracks, which are zero‐order ecogeomorphic features that concentrate surface and subsurface flow paths. Our results suggest that water tracks, which appear to occupy hillslope positions between saturation and incision thresholds, are vulnerable to warming‐induced subsidence and incision. We hypothesize that gullying within water tracks will outpace infilling by hillslope processes, resulting in the growth of the channel network under future warming.

Rewilding Risks for Peatland Permafrost

Permafrost thaw is projected to reinforce climate warming by releasing large stocks of stored carbon. Rewilding northern high latitude regions with large herbivores has been proposed as a climate mitigation strategy to protect frozen soils and increase ecosystem resilience to climate warming. We explored the impact of summer reindeer density on subarctic peatlands by comparing 17 peatlands differing in reindeer density in Fennoscandia. We used a combination of high-resolution image analyses and field assessments along 50 transects to assess microtopography, surface water cover, vegetation, summer albedo, permafrost presence, soil temperature, soil nutrients and snow depth. Our results show that high summer reindeer densities fragment the characteristic bumpy topography of the peatlands, reducing the insulating soil properties and the probability of keeping permafrost in elevated hummocks. As a result, waterlogged lawns with surface water increase in size and reduce summer albedo. Furthermore, high reindeer density peatlands were associated with an increase in tall inedible shrubs and thicker snow layers. These changes may favor summer warming and reduce winter cooling of the soil thus accelerating permafrost loss. Our results suggest that high reindeer densities may reduce resilience of the peatland permafrost to climate warming. High densities of large herbivores will likely have different effects in well-drained uplands, but in the lowlands we studied, the complex cascading effects of summer trampling may well offset any climate-protection gained by browsing. Optimal use of wildlife management to mitigate global warming will thus require tuning herbivore densities to different ecosystem types across high northern landscapes.