Periods Of High Rainfall Research Articles

Stormwater influences phytoplankton assemblages within the diverse, but impacted Sydney Harbour estuary.

Sydney Harbour is subjected to persistent stress associated with anthropogenic activity and global climate change, but is particularly subjected to pulse stress events associated with stormwater input during episodic periods of high rainfall. Photosynthetic microbes underpin metazoan diversity within estuarine systems and are therefore important bioindicators of ecosystem health; yet how stormwater input affects their occurrence and distribution in Sydney Harbour remains poorly understood. We utilised molecular tools (16S/18S rRNA and petB genes) to examine how the phytoplankton community structure (both prokaryotes and eukaryotes) within Sydney Harbour varies between high and low rainfall periods. The relative proportion of phytoplankton sequences was more abundant during the high rainfall period, comprising mainly of diatoms, an important functional group supporting increased productivity within estuarine systems, together with cyanobacteria. Increased spatial variability in the phytoplankton community composition was observed, potentially driven by the steepened physico-chemical gradients associated with stormwater inflow. Conversely, during a low rainfall period, the proportion of planktonic photosynthetic microbes was significantly lower and the persistent phytoplankton were predominantly represented by chlorophyte and dinoflagellate sequences, with lower overall diversity. Differences in phytoplankton composition between the high and low rainfall periods were correlated with temperature, salinity, total nitrogen and silicate. These results suggest that increased frequency of high-rainfall events may change the composition, productivity and health of the estuary. Our study begins to populate the knowledge gap in the phytoplankton community structure and substantial changes associated with transient environmental perturbations, an essential step towards unravelling the dynamics of primary production in a highly urbanised estuarine ecosystem in response to climate change and other anthropogenic stressors.

Spatial and Temporal Variation of the Blowflies Community (Diptera: Calliphoridae) From an Urban Area in Northern South America.

Blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) are necrophagous flies with ecological, medical, veterinary, and forensic importance. These flies carry pathogens that they spread to animals and humans, and produce myiasis. Furthermore, they are useful tools in forensic science as indicators of postmortem intervals, and in biomedicine they are successfully used in larval therapy. This study aimed to assess the spatiotemporal variation of the blowflies community from the urban area of Sincelejo City, located in the Colombian Caribbean region. Samplings were conducted from May 2012 to April 2013, using Van Someren Rydon-traps baited with bovine meat, fish, and chicken that decomposed for 48 h. Six species were registered, Cochliomyia macellaria (Fabricius, 1775) was the most abundant, followed by Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann, 1819) and Chrysomya albiceps (Wiedemann, 1819), while Chloroprocta idioidea (Robineau-Desvoidy, 1830), Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius, 1794), and Lucilia cuprina (Wiedemann, 1830) presented the least individuals. The blowflies community did not change significantly throughout the sampling months or between the periods of low or high rainfall, nor was it influenced by weather variables. Although the species composition was the same in all sampled localities, species abundances presented significant differences. The possible causes of this pattern are discussed herein. Sex ratios were female biased for all the recorded species, except C. idioidea. Our findings provide the first assessment of the blowflies community from the urban area of Sincelejo City.

Rapid Estimation of Volumetric Groundwater Recharge in the Vadose Zone via Ground Penetrating Radar

Saturation in the vadose zone is known to reduce the ground penetrating radar (GPR) electromagnetic wave velocities. We examine the impact of increased water content in highly-permeable beach and dune systems on GPR velocities along coastal margin of Perth, Western Australia. We acquire repeat GPR transects in May and August before and after annual high rainfall periods. The assumption of exceedingly flat water table reflector permits us to estimated change in GPR velocity at successive dates. This change in velocity can be translated to an estimated change in water saturation via the Topp relationship which is an imperial mapping of water saturation to dielectric permittivity.

Hot Spots and Hot Moments of Soil Moisture Explain Fluctuations in Iron and Carbon Cycling in a Humid Tropical Forest Soil

Soils from humid forests undergo spatial and temporal variations in moisture and oxygen (O2) in response to rainfall, and induce changes in iron (Fe) and carbon (C) biogeochemistry. We hypothesized that high rainfall periods stimulate Fe and C cycling, with the greatest effects in areas of high soil moisture. To test this, we measured Fe and C cycling across three catenas at valley, slope, and ridge positions every two days for a two-month period in a rainforest in Puerto Rico. Over 12 days without rain, soil moisture, FeII, rapidly reducible Fe oxides (FeIIIRR), and dissolved organic C (DOC) declined, but Eh and O2 increased; conversely, during a 10-day period of intense rain (290 mm), we observed the opposite trends. Mixed-effects models suggest precipitation predicted soil moisture, soil redox potential (Eh), and O2, which in turn influenced Fe reduction/oxidation, C dissolution, and mineralization processes. The approximate turnover time for HCl-extractable FeII was four days for both production and consumption, and may be driven by fluctuations in FeIIIRR, which ranged from 42% to 100% of citrate–ascorbate-extractable FeIII (short-range order (SRO)-FeIII) at a given site. Our results demonstrated that periods of high precipitation (hot moments) influenced Fe and C-cycling within day-to-week timescales, and were more pronounced in humid valleys (hot spots).

Land–Ocean Connectivity Through Subsidies of Terrestrially Derived Organic Matter to a Nearshore Marine Consumer

Land–ocean coupling in the form of riverine inputs of terrestrial matter can constitute an energetic subsidy to food webs in nearshore coastal areas. In regions with distinctly seasonal rainfall patterns, the strength and spatial footprint of any terrestrial signal in receiving marine food webs is predicted to mirror seasonal changes in fluvial forcing. Here, we test this prediction in a subtropical bay by isotopically (δ13C and δ15N) characterizing the main primary producers and reconstructing (using a Bayesian stable isotope mixing model) their contributions to the diet of thinstripe hermit crabs (Clibanarius vittatus). Seasonal rainfall flushed terrestrial carbon out of coastal watersheds, and this material made a sizable (up to 28%) contribution to the diet of marine consumers, in addition to mangroves, seagrass and algae. Our isotope model indicates that inputs of terrestrial grasses and other littoral vegetation were 15% greater as a result of increased fluvial forcing. In addition, the spatial footprint of the terrestrial signal in marine consumers propagated more widely throughout the bay during high-rainfall periods. Given the widespread conversion of natural watershed habitats for agriculture and urban development, understanding the nature, temporal dynamics and strength of such land–ocean coupling will become increasingly important.

The performance and behavior of land drainage systems and their impact on field scale hydrology in an increasingly volatile climate

Escalations in rainfall intensity, both in terms of volume and frequency are increasing the volatility associated with grassland agriculture on poorly drained soils. The principal mechanism of reducing this volatility is by means of land drainage; however the efficacy of drainage systems is widely variable and has not been fully quantified. The excavation of soil test pits and a corresponding examination of the soil profile enables bespoke land drainage system design. Across heterogeneous soil-scapes this leads to variations to both groundwater and shallow drainage designs. In the present study we examine the performances of 9 site-specific drainage systems (5 groundwater and 4 shallow drainage designs), during a high rainfall period (01/10/2015–31/05/2016) in terms of response times (start, peak and lag times), discharge characteristics (peak flow rate, total discharge, flashiness index, discharge hydrographs) and water table control capacity. Response times were not affected by drainage system or drainage design type, showing similar responses despite variation in soil types where appropriate drainage systems are installed. Total discharge (1098.4 vs. 189.6 m3/ha) and peak flow rate (51.0 vs. 16.8 m3/ha/h) were significantly higher in groundwater designs relative to shallow alternatives. Groundwater drainage designs generally maintained a deeper mean water table depth (0.82 m) than shallow designs (0.53 m) during the study period. The functional capacity of each land drainage system was inherently different. The comparison of such systems highlights contrasting behaviors of individual drainage systems and drainage design types, which is dictated largely by the hydraulic capacity of the soil within their catchment and their connectivity to different water bodies (groundwater versus perched water). All systems reduced the overall period of waterlogging and improved the conditions for both the production and utilization of the grasslands they drain, although temporal variations in agronomic parameters are likely to be more pronounced in shallow designs.

Resistance of Xanthomonas euvesicatoria strains from Brazilian pepper to copper and zinc sulfates.

Bacterial spot, caused by Xanthomonas spp., is one of the major bacterial diseases in pepper (Capsicum annuum L.). The infection results in reduced crop yield, particularly during periods of high rainfall and temperature, due to the low efficiency of chemical control with copper bactericides. This study evaluated the copper and zinc sulfate sensitivity of 59 pathogenic strains of Xanthomonas euvesicatoria isolated from pepper plants produced in various regions throughout Brazil. Both the respective sulfates and a mixture thereof was evaluated at 50, 100, 200 and 400 μg.mL-1. All the evaluated strains were found to be resistant to zinc sulfate (100 μg.mL-1) and 86.4% were resistant to copper sulfate (200 μg.mL-1). The mixture of copper (200 μg.mL-1) and zinc (200 μg.mL-1) sulfates inhibited the growth of all strains of X. euvesicatoria. To our knowledge this is the first study to report the resistance of X. euvesicatoria strains from pepper plants to copper and zinc sulfates in Brazil.

Estimating Basin-Scale Water Budgets with SMAP Soil Moisture Data.

Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Level-2 soil moisture retrievals collected during 2015-2017 are used in isolation to estimate 10-day warm-season precipitation and streamflow totals within 145 medium-sized (2,000-10,000 km2) unregulated watersheds in the conterminous United States. The precipitation estimation algorithm, derived from a well documented approach, includes a locally-calibrated loss function component that significantly improves its performance. For the basin-scale water budget analysis, the precipitation and streamflow algorithms are calibrated with two years of SMAP retrievals in conjunction with observed precipitation and streamflow data and are then applied to SMAP retrievals alone during a third year. While estimation accuracy (as measured by the square of the correlation coefficient, r2, between estimates and observations) varies by basin, the average r2 for the basins is 0.53 for precipitation and 0.22 for streamflow. For the subset of 22 basins that calibrate particularly well, the r2 increases to 0.63 for precipitation and to 0.51 for streamflow. The magnitudes of the estimated variables are also accurate, with sample pairs generally clustered about the 1:1 line. The chief limitation to the estimation involves large biases induced during periods of high rainfall; the accuracy of the estimates (in terms of r2 and RMSE) increases significantly when periods of higher rainfall are not considered. The potential for transferability is also demonstrated by calibrating the streamflow estimation equation in one basin and then applying the equation in another. Overall, the study demonstrates that SMAP retrievals contain, all by themselves, information that can be used to estimate large-scale water budgets.

Small mammal and reptile persistence in desert grasslands during a period of low rainfall – Part 1

The abundance of Australia's arid zone vertebrates is typically driven by fluctuations in rainfall, which dictate productivity across functional groups. Many species fluctuate from highly abundant during high rainfall periods to low abundance during low rainfall periods. Although these fluctuations are well documented, little is known regarding the factors affecting fauna persistence during periods of low rainfall. We examined the relationship between several influential factors and the richness and abundance of nocturnal small mammal and reptiles in the spinifex sand plains of central Australia. The study was conducted during a period of low rainfall following the decline of most vertebrate species in the area. Mammals showed species-specific responses, with varying dependencies on cover and climatic factors, whilst reptiles showed a surprisingly limited response to resource abundances and rainfall. The most consistent factor associated with small mammal and reptile abundances was the presence of large predators. Cats had greater suppressive effects on small mammals whilst reptiles declined with greater wild dog presence. These results likely represent a combination of selective foraging and seasonal fluctuations in activity of the two predators. Our results highlight the importance of controlling predator numbers during low rainfall periods to reduce their potential suppressive effects.

Life history characteristics and recruitment of fish under the effect of different hydrological regimes in a tropical floodplain

With the aim to analyze intra- and interspecific variation in the life history characteristics and recruitment pattern of six fish species, samples were conducted in two different hydrological regime areas of Pantanal (synchronous/Norther and asynchronous/Southern regions - high temperatures and rainfalls are and are not coincident with the flooding period, respectively). In both regions, fish were sampled using sieve net and dragnet along the river and marginal lakes. In the synchronous regime (Cuiaba River), the combined data collected between the years 2005 and 2010 were utilized. In the asynchronous regime (Paraguay River), the collections were made between 2009 and 2011. Length frequency data were used in the FISAT program to estimate the parameters. Four species, in the synchronous regime, reached trend to longer values for the asymptotic length values (L∞) and trend to lower values in growth taxa (k) and mortality (Z), but the outcomes did not demonstrate significant intraspecific variation for L∞ and Z by length classes between the hydrologic regimes (except for Moenkhausia dichroura). The recruitment pattern did not show intra- and interspecific variation between the hydrological regimes, with long period of recruitment and greater pulse for all species between June and August. Thus, the correlation of species recruitment with river level in the asynchronous regime follows the flood pulse concept, where the flooding pulse is the main driving force for production of animal and plant biomass. In contrast, the pattern of recruitment in the synchronous regime follows the hypothesis of the low flow recruitment, where the recruitment is not influenced by flooding, despite the period of high temperature and rainfall being coincident with the period of flooding.

Using CDOM optical properties for estimating DOC concentrations and pCO2 in the Lower Amazon River.

Coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is one of the major contributors to the absorption budget of most freshwaters and can be used as a proxy to assess non-optical carbon fractions such as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2). Nevertheless, riverine studies that explore the former relationships are still relatively scarce, especially within tropical regions. Here we document the spatial-seasonal variability of CDOM, DOC and pCO2, and assess the potential of CDOM absorption coefficient (aCDOM(412)) for estimating DOC concentration and pCO2 along the Lower Amazon River. Our results revealed differences in the dissolved organic matter (DOM) quality between clearwater (CW) tributaries and the Amazon River mainstream. A linear relationship between DOC and CDOM was observed when tributaries and mainstream are evaluated separately (Amazon River: N = 42, R2 = 0.74, p<0.05; CW: N = 13, R2 = 0.57, p<0.05). However, this linear relationship was not observed during periods of higher rainfall and river discharge, requiring a specific model for these time periods to be developed (N = 25, R2 = 0.58, p<0.05). A strong linear positive relation was found between aCDOM(412) and pCO2(N = 69, R2 = 0.65, p<0.05) along the lower river. pCO2 was less affected by the optical difference between tributaries and mainstream waters or by the discharge conditions when compared to CDOM to DOC relationships. Including the river water temperature in the model improves our ability to estimate pCO2 (N = 69; R2 = 0.80, p<0.05). The ability to assess both DOC and pCO2 from CDOM optical properties opens further perspectives on the use of ocean colour remote sensing data for monitoring carbon dynamics in large running water systems worldwide.

Year-Round Irrigation Schedule for a Tomato–Maize Rotation System in Reservoir-Based Irrigation Schemes in Ghana

Improving irrigation management in semi-arid regions of Sub-Saharan Africa is crucial to respond to increasing variability in rainfall and overcome deficits in current irrigation schemes. In small-scale and medium-scale reservoir-based irrigation schemes in the Upper East region of Ghana, we explored options for improving the traditional, dry season irrigation practices and assessed the potential for supplemental irrigation in the rainy season. The AquaCrop model was used to (i) assess current water management in the typical tomato-maize rotational system; (ii) develop an improved irrigation schedule for dry season cultivation of tomato; and (iii) determine the requirement for supplemental irrigation of maize in the rainy season under different climate scenarios. The improved irrigation schedule for dry season tomato cultivation would result in a water saving of 130–1325 mm compared to traditional irrigation practices, accompanied by approximately a 4–14% increase in tomato yield. The supplemental irrigation of maize would require 107–126 mm of water in periods of low rainfall and frequent dry spells, and 88–105 mm in periods of high rainfall and rare dry spells. Therefore, year-round irrigated crop production may be feasible, using water saved during dry season tomato cultivation for supplemental irrigation of maize in the rainy season.

Speleothem evidence for the greening of the Sahara and its implications for the early human dispersal out of sub-Saharan Africa

Although there is a consensus that there were wet periods (greening events) in the Sahara in the past, the spatial extent and the timing of these greening events are still in dispute, yet critical to our understanding of the early human dispersal out of Africa. Our U-series dates of speleothems from the Northeastern Sahara (Wadi Sannur cave, Egypt) reveal that the periods of speleothem growth were brief and restricted to the interglacial Marine Isotope Stages MIS 5.5, MIS 7.3, and the early MIS 9 with a remarkable absence of the Holocene deposition of speleothems. These growth periods of Wadi Sannur cave speleothems correspond to periods of high rainfall and spread of vegetation (green Sahara). Distinct low δ18O values of speleothems indicate a distal moisture source that we interpret to be the Atlantic Ocean. These two lines of evidence from the Wadi Sannur speleothems thus suggest that maximal northward shifts in the West African monsoon system occurred during the growth periods of the speleothems, leading to greening of the Sahara, facilitating human migration into Eurasia. The periods of speleothem growth at Wadi Sannur cave are contemporaneous with important archeological events: (1) the earliest occurrence of the Middle Stone Age assemblages and Homo sapiens in North Africa (Jebel Irhoud), suggesting wide spread of greening conditions over the East–West transect of the Sahara, (2) the sharp technological break between the Acheulo-Yabrudian and the Mousterian industries, and (3) the arrival of Homo sapiens in Levant, indicating a key role of the Sahara route in early human dispersal out of Africa.

Dynamics of natural infection by Babesia bovis and Babesia bigemina in dairy cattle from an enzootic instability area in Northeastern Brazil.

This study aimed to determine the dynamics of natural infection in the transmission of Babesia spp. to cattle in an enzootic instability area in Northeastern Brazil. Blood samples were collected from 30 calves located on two dairy farms to determine the packed cell volume (PCV) and the timing of the primo-infection using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and their association with climatic factors and management practices. On Farm A, the determination of primo-infection was observed on average at 249.4 (±24.42) days of age for B. bigemina and at 252.6 (±17.07) days of age for B. bovis; there was no significant difference between the times of infection (P> 0.05). The infection coincided with a period of high rainfall in the region. On Farm B, primo-infection infection was not observed. There was no infection by Babesia spp. on Farm B due to the intensive use of acaricides that led to an absence of ticks. There was no significant difference between the average PCV of animals from Farms A and B (P> 0.05). The management practices on the properties, in addition to the weather conditions influenced the exposure of the animals to disease vectors and may have contributed to the maintenance of this enzootic area in Northeastern Brazil.

Seasonal dynamics of tetracycline resistance gene transport in the Sumas River agricultural watershed of British Columbia, Canada

Environmental transport of contaminants that can influence the development of antibiotic resistance in bacteria is an important concern in the management of ecological and human health risks. Agricultural regions are locales where practices linked to food crop and livestock production can introduce contaminants that could alter the selective pressures for the development of antibiotic resistance in microbiota. This is important in regions where the use of animal manure or municipal biosolids as waste and/or fertilizer could influence selection for antibiotic resistance in pathogenic bacterial species. To investigate the environmental transport of contaminants that could lead to the development of antibiotic resistance in bacteria, a watershed with one of the highest levels of intensity of agricultural activity in Canada was studied; the Sumas River located 60 km east of Vancouver, British Columbia. This two-year assessment monitored four selected tetracycline resistance genes (tet(O), tet(M), tet(Q), tet(W)) and water quality parameters (temperature, specific conductivity, turbidity, suspended solids, nitrate, phosphate and chloride) at eight locations across the watershed. The tetracycline resistance genes (Tcr) abundances in the Sumas River network ranged between 1.47 × 102 and 3.49 × 104 copies/mL and ranged between 2.3 and 6.9 copies/mL in a control stream (located far from agricultural activities) for the duration of the study. Further, Tcr abundances that were detected in the wet season months ranged between 1.3 × 103 and 2.29 × 104 copies/mL compared with dry season months (ranging between 0.6 and 31.2 copies/mL). Highest transport rates between 1.67 × 1011 and 1.16 × 1012 copies/s were observed in November 2005 during periods of high rainfall. The study showed that elevated concentrations of antibiotic resistance genes in the order of 102–104 copies/mL can move through stream networks in an agricultural watershed but seasonal variations strongly influenced specific transport patterns of these genes.

Seasonal and ENSO Influences on the Stable Isotopic Composition of Galápagos Precipitation

AbstractThe origin of stable isotopic variability in precipitation over time and space is critical to the interpretation of stable isotope‐based paleoclimate proxies. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, modern stable isotope measurements in precipitation (δ18Op and δDp) are sparse and largely unevaluated in the literature, although insights from such analyses would benefit the interpretations of several regional isotope‐based paleoclimate records. Here we present a new 3.5 year record of daily‐resolved δ18Op and δDp from Santa Cruz, Galápagos. With a prior 13 year record of monthly δ18Op and δDp from the island, these new data reveal controls on the stable isotopic composition of regional precipitation on event to interannual time scales. Overall, we find Galápagos δ18Op is significantly correlated with precipitation amount on daily and monthly time scales. The majority of Galápagos rain events are drizzle, or garúa, derived from local marine boundary layer vapor, with corresponding high δ18Op values due to the local source and increased evaporation and equilibration of smaller drops with boundary layer vapor. On monthly time scales, only precipitation in very strong, warm season El Niño months has substantially lower δ18Op values, as the sea surface temperature threshold for deep convection (28°C) is only surpassed at these times. The 2015/2016 El Niño event did not produce strong precipitation or δ18Op anomalies due to the short period of warm SST anomalies, which did not extend into the peak of the warm season. Eastern Pacific proxy isotope records may be biased toward periods of high rainfall during strong to very strong El Niño events.

VARIACIÓN EN LAS PROPIEDADES BROMATOLÓGICAS DE TRES TIPOS DE PASTURAS PARA USO GANADERO EN EL DISTRITO DE CONSERVACIÓN SUELOS BARBAS BREMEN

El Municipio de Filandia está ubicado en la vertiente occidental de la Cordillera Central de Colombia, cuenca del Alto Cauca. Su territorio representa el 5.58% de la extensión total del Departamento del Quindío; dicho municipio presenta una gran actividad ganadera la cual ha venido en aumento, siendo la ganadería de doble propósito (leche y carne) como actividad económica más utilizada para el sustento de sus hogares. Se realizó una recolección de muestras de pastos y tierras de propiedades de miembros de asociaciones ganaderas, como parte de la estrategia integradora del departamento que promueve las técnicas menos dañinas para el medio ambiente por la actividad ganadera. Encontramos que los valores nutricionales de las pasturas tienen niveles de proteína media y valores de grasa bajos con relación a los marcos de referencia mínimos. Esto puede ser atribuido a los periodos de altas lluvias que se observan en la región y a los procesos de ganadería no estandarizados y controlados, pues en dichos predios no se realiza rotación, siendo esto último un mecanismo que permite el máximo aprovechamiento del potrero por unidad de ganado.

Dengue in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: 2014 to 2016.

The first autochthonous dengue case in Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Southern Brazil, occurred in 2007. In 2008 and 2009, only imported cases were reported in RS, but from 2010 to 2013, reports of autochthonous infections increased significantly. This study analyzes and discusses laboratory, demographic, and clinical data regarding dengue cases in RS, from 2014 to 2016. This study analyzed 13,420 serum samples from notified patients with suspicion of dengue fever in RS from 2014 to 2016. Seasonality of positive cases, viral serotypes, and clinical and epidemiological aspects were analyzed. There was no difference in gender (P=.4); dengue fever occurred mainly in adults, with similar distribution among age groups. The number of dengue virus (DENV) cases increased from 89 cases in 2014 to 2518 in 2016. Dengue virus 1 was the most prevalent circulating serotype during this period (97.5% of cases). Dengue virus infections show peaks in March and April (late summer and early autumn), after periods of high temperatures and rainfall. In 2014, dengue cases were concentrated in the northwestern and eastern regions of RS, and in 2015 and 2016, the northern region also confirmed a high number of cases. With increase in DENV circulation in RS, a rise in the number of autochthonous infections was also observed, mainly in highly urbanized areas. This study revealed that circulation of DENV in RS increased significantly in 2015 and 2016, with a rise in the number of autochthonous infections and cocirculation with Chikungunya and Zika viruses, recently introduced into RS.

ASSESSING LANDSAT FRACTIONAL GROUND-COVER TIME SERIES ACROSS AUSTRALIA’S ARID RANGELANDS: SEPARATING GRAZING IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Abstract. Suitable measures of grazing impacts on ground cover, that enable separation of the effects of climatic variations, are needed to inform land managers and policy makers across the arid rangelands of Australia. This work developed and tested a time-series, changepoint detection method for application to time series of vegetation fractional cover derived from Landsat data to identify irregular and episodic ground-cover growth cycles. Utilising the High Performance Computing power of the Google Cloud Compute Engine these cycles were segmented to distinguish grazing impacts from that of climate variability. A measure of grazing impact was developed using a multivariate technique to quantify the rate and degree of ground cover change. The method was successful in detecting both long term and short term growth cycles. Growth cycle detection was assessed against rainfall surplus measures indicating a relationship with high rainfall periods. During periods of ground cover decline, grazing utilisation was observed across four major grasslands. Ground cover change associated with grazing impacts was also assessed against field measurements of ground cover indicating a relationship between both field and remotely sensed ground cover. Cause and effects between grazing practices and ground cover resilience can now be explored in isolation to climatic drivers. This is important to the long term balance between ground cover utilisation and overall landscape function and resilience.

Spatio-temporal models to determine association between Campylobacter cases and environment.

BackgroundCampylobacteriosis is a major cause of gastroenteritis in the UK, and although 70% of cases are associated with food sources, the remainder are probably associated with wider environmental exposure.MethodsIn order to investigate wider environmental transmission, we conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of the association of human cases of Campylobacter in the Tyne catchment with weather, climate, hydrology and land use. A hydrological model was used to predict surface-water flow in the Tyne catchment over 5 years. We analysed associations between population-adjusted Campylobacter case rate and environmental factors hypothesized to be important in disease using a two-stage modelling framework. First, we investigated associations between temporal variation in case rate in relation to surface-water flow, temperature, evapotranspiration and rainfall, using linear mixed-effects models. Second, we used the random effects for the first model to quantify how spatial variation in static landscape features of soil and land use impacted on the likely differences between subcatchment associations of case rate with the temporal variables.ResultsPopulation-adjusted Campylobacter case rates were associated with periods of high predicted surface-water flow, and during above average temperatures. Subcatchments with cattle on stagnogley soils, and to a lesser extent sheep plus cattle grazing, had higher Campylobacter case rates.ConclusionsAreas of stagnogley soils with mixed livestock grazing may be more vulnerable to both Campylobacter spread and exposure during periods of high rainfall, with resultant increased risk of human cases of the disease.