Crisis Period Research Articles

A Hybridized Machine Learning Based Crisis Period Prediction System for Epileptic Patient Using Crisp-DM and SVM

Epileptic seizures are unpredictable and can severely impact the quality of life of patients. To address this challenge, this research presents a hybridized machine learning-based crisis period prediction system designed to predict seizure occurrences with high accuracy. The system leverages a comprehensive dataset that integrates physiological signals, environmental variables, and behavioural patterns, offering a holistic approach to seizure prediction. The methodology follows the Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) framework, ensuring a structured approach to data pre-processing, model development, and evaluation. Object-Oriented Analysis and Design Methodology (OOADM) principles were employed to modularize and optimize the implementation, facilitating scalability and maintainability of the system. The dataset underwent rigorous pre-processing, including normalization, feature selection, and handling of missing values, to ensure the quality and reliability of the input data. A Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier was employed due to its robustness in handling high-dimensional data. The evaluation of the model yielded an accuracy of 85%, demonstrating its effectiveness in predicting crisis periods for epileptic patients. This system represents a significant step forward in predictive healthcare for epilepsy management. By integrating diverse data sources and leveraging advanced machine learning techniques, it offers a promising tool for real-time crisis period prediction, potentially improving patient safety and autonomy. Future work will focus on enhancing the model's accuracy and integrating real-time monitoring capabilities to enable proactive interventions.

Board Diversity as a Channel for Firm Resilience and Performance During Crises: Evidence from India

This paper examines how the demographic diversity of directors, their educational background, nationality, and women representation above the mandated threshold improve firm resilience during economic crises. Using a set of listed firms from 2010 to 2021 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) NIFTY 500 index, we analyze the influence of these diversity attributes on firm outcomes, measured by Return on Assets (ROA) and Tobin’s Q during both stable and crisis periods with the COVID-19 pandemic as an illustrative crisis context. We find a positive and statistically significant relationship between board diversity and firm outcomes during normal times; however, during crisis periods, the relationship is insignificant, suggesting that diversity alone may not enhance firm resilience under high-pressure scenarios. The composite diversity index supports the results that show that board diversity influence diminishes during economic shocks. The study contributes to the corporate governance literature by highlighting the contextual limitations of board diversity during crises and calls for policymakers to integrate board diversity into broader risk management frameworks

How anxiety and depression mediate the link between sleep quality and health perception during crisis periods

During crisis periods, understanding the impact of sleep quality on self-rated health becomes crucial. However, the role of anxiety and depression as potential mediators in this relationship remains insufficiently explored. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the association of sleep quality with self-rated health, and mediation by anxiety and depression. This cross-sectional, population-based study was conducted with 1762 adults from October to December 2020 in the Iron Quadrilateral region of Brazil. The exposure variable was poor sleep quality, as measured by the PSQI. The outcome was self-rated health. The mediators tested were anxiety and depression, which were evaluated using symptoms, medical diagnoses, and the use of drugs. To test the mediators’ factors, the Karlson–Holm–Breen method was used. The direct acyclic graph was used to select a minimal set of adjustments in multivariate analysis. There were 22.6% of people who rated their health as poor, 52.5% were poor sleepers, 35.1% had symptoms of anxiety and 24.7% had symptoms of depression. According to the multivariate analysis, individuals with poor sleep quality were 2.82 times more likely to self-assess their health as poor. The presence of symptoms of anxiety and depression explained 16.57% and 5.99% of the association between poor sleep quality and poor self-rated health, respectively, in the mediation analysis. During the COVID-19 pandemic, individuals who had poor sleep quality had lower self-rated health. Furthermore, symptoms of anxiety and depression explained a portion of the association. Our study emphasizes the importance of evaluating individuals’ sleep quality and mental health during a crisis.

Innovation novelty and performance of humanitarian organizations: boundary roles of innovation intensity and external communication

Purpose This purpose of this study is to explore the connection between organizational innovation novelty and operational performance. Grounded in the resource-based view and dynamic capabilities theory, the authors hypothesize that while initial increases in innovation novelty improve performance, excessive novelty can strain resources and capabilities, leading to diminishing returns. The authors also examine how innovation intensity and external communication moderate this relationship. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted a quantitative approach, and survey data was collected from 203 humanitarian organizations from Ghana. Findings Data collected from 203 humanitarian and relief organizations (HROs) operating in Ghana support the proposed positive relationship between innovation novelty and efficiency performance, although this was not observed in disaster responsiveness. Moreover, both innovation intensity and external communication positively influence this relationship, enhancing the beneficial effects of innovation novelty on operational performance when present at high levels. Research limitations/implications This study contributes to the literature by providing detailed insights into how innovation novelty affects HRO operational performance and underscores the critical roles of innovation intensity and external communication. Practical implications The study suggests that HROs should introduce and scale innovative initiatives cautiously, using incremental, phased approaches to ensure efficiency. High-intensity innovations can reduce flexibility during disaster response, so managers should maintain low-to-moderate intensity. External communication is crucial for efficiency performance, but localized, on-the-ground communication systems are essential. Strategic resource allocation is essential, with low-cost, high-impact innovations prioritized during early crises. Building innovation portfolios that balance radical innovations with smaller, incremental ones can help HROs remain agile and responsive in both stable and crisis periods. Originality/value This study explores the relationship between innovation novelty at both moderate and extremely high levels, and how it drives disaster responsiveness and operational efficiency under different conditions of innovation intensity and external communication.

Vernacular and discursive harm reduction: an ethnography of an online drug community

BackgroundIn the context of online drug communities, the ethos of harm reduction comprises a set of ethical and practical principles that enable drug enthusiasts to shift stigma by normalizing certain behaviors to the detriment of others. The HR ethos is the dominant discourse in drug forums, which may give the impression that it is a natural expression of the online sociability of drug enthusiasts. However, according to the interactionist theory of deviance, there is a process behind the demarcation between deviance and normality; this would suggest that before becoming the dominant discourse, the HR ethos has had to assert itself in drug forums in the face of other attitudes. The study aimed to follow the progression of the HR ethos in an online drug community, in order to identify the process that led to both its generalization by the community’s members and their labelling of deviant behavior within the community.MethodsDiscord is a recently created social media platform that provides spaces for various online communities called ‘servers’. The connective ethnography method was used to select three Discord servers (Blue, Green, and Yellow) for drug enthusiasts. Participant observation was utilized to collect data because it allows us to understand the meaning of interactions between players. Data were collected over a 14-month period using ethnographic field notes. The present article analyzed a 3-month period of identity crisis and resolution on the Blue server using concepts from the sociology of deviance.ResultsThe process began with the problematic situation: statutory members of the Blue server were exhausted by their own concern that members of the community were being hurt by their drug use. As a solution, members who had already participated in other drug communities, acting as moral entrepreneurs, proposed implementing the HR ethos on the Blue server. The statutory members derived rules from this ethos that created a vernacular HR specifically adapted to the Blue community. In particular, they established rules for discursive HR which enabled them to set boundaries for conversations without judging members’ practices. In conclusion, drug enthusiasts in the Blue community took care of each other, and developed a vernacular HR with the aim of ensuring that being part of their community was beneficial for its members.

Organic food consumption dynamics in Germany during economic crises

This study investigates the effects of the 2008 global economic crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic on organic food consumption in Germany, the largest organic market in Europe. Specifically, it examines (1) the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and organic food consumption during crisis and non-crisis periods (disposable income is also employed as an alternative measure instead of GDP to verify the stability of the results), (2) the presence of a long-term equilibrium between these variables, (3) the short-term dynamics governing the adjustment toward this equilibrium, and (4) the differences in these dynamics under stable economic conditions and crisis periods. To analyze these relationships, the study employs an Error Correction Model (ECM) with Markov Regime Switching (MRS) and Threshold Cointegration Methodology (TCM), as both modeling frameworks allow for the identification of structural changes in the data. The findings indicate a significant dependence of organic food consumption on GDP (income), but only in non-crisis periods. While a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP (income) and organic food consumption is confirmed, the adjustment mechanism toward this equilibrium varies considerably between economic stability and crisis periods.

The birth of insolvency in China: judicial innovation during the Wenzhou curb crisis

ABSTRACT In this article, through a case study focusing on the evolution of China's insolvency law, we test the ‘transplant effect' hypothesis, in particular the claim that transplanted laws can only work when there is local or ‘endogenous' demand for them in the ‘host' or ‘receiving' state. We also test claims made for a ‘co-evolutionary' understanding of the law-economy relationship in the context of China's development. In addition to documentary sources, this article draws on interviews we carried out in Wenzhou in September 2017 and December 2018. Our study shows that aspects of the transplant and coevolution hypotheses are in need of some modification if they are to explain China’s legal and economic development. It also suggests that formal rules can be operationalised at the level of practice once they are seen as legitimate. While this is a process which takes time, a period of crisis provides opportunities for the learning process around the use of formal rules and procedures to be accelerated.

Changes in Subjective Well-Being and its Mechanisms during Times of Crises in Finland

Abstract This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent crises on subjective well-being (SWB) in Finland between 2016 and 2022. By examining various measures of quality of life, namely happiness, life satisfaction, perceived stress, loneliness, and economic security, we provide a comprehensive analysis of SWB during the pandemic and subsequent crises, including the social reopening and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Using a nationally representative survey from 2016 to 2022 (N = 9,936) and five-wave panel data from 2017 to 2022 (N = 431), we assessed both cross-sectional and individual-level changes in SWB. Our study focused on three main areas: the evolution and overlap of various dimensions of SWB during the pandemic, variations in SWB across labor market groups, and changes in the impact of the key mechanisms explaining SWB. The results indicate a substantial long-term decline in SWB; overlap between its various dimensions; an accumulation of adverse effects, particularly among students and the unemployed; and a more pronounced association between loneliness and SWB during the period of crisis. Taken together, the results suggest a widening, rather than a narrowing, of inequalities in well-being. This study contributes to the ongoing debate regarding the smoothing effect of crises and enriches the literature on the impact of COVID-19 on well-being with a robust longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis. The results highlight the need for targeted interventions to support vulnerable populations and improve society’s resilience to future crises.

Visegrad four as an institution in times of EU crises

ABSTRACT The primary aim of this paper is to provide an empirical comparative analysis of the collective actions of the Visegrád Group (V4) during three major EU crises – the migration crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The secondary aim is to assess the V4 as a political institution and its potential contribution to European integration. While regional coalitions within the EU have been extensively studied, the role of the V4 in times of crisis remains underexplored. Our analysis demonstrates that, contrary to expectations, crisis severity did not determine the level of V4 activity. Instead, the extent of cooperation was shaped by domestic political factors within V4 countries. Whereas the migration crisis activated the V4 as a cohesive actor, the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine exposed internal fragmentation. These findings contribute to the debate on regional cooperation in the EU, highlighting the contingent nature of sub-regional coalitions in periods of crisis.

Posses and sinkholes: crisis aesthetics in Turkish political cinema

ABSTRACT Recent Turkish political cinema features films that are designed and interpreted as national allegories. Born from a climate of economic and political turmoil, these films symbolize a dark, hopeless national experience. Burning Days (2022) and Black Night (2023) converge to exhibit symptoms of Turkey’s ongoing political and economic turmoil, reflecting Jameson’s description of third-world intellectuals’ hopelessness. This article examines two recurring metaphors – the posse and the sinkhole – to explore their allegorical significance in capturing national anxieties. I argue that filmmakers Alper and Alper, while rooted in century-old literary traditions, tropes, and an understanding of power politics, cannot escape these influences. Emerging from a period of crisis, their films introduce a novel crisis aesthetics marked by a defeatist tone. While sharing parallels with earlier Turkish political cinema, their unique response to Turkey’s recent context establishes a new aesthetic paradigm in contemporary Turkish cinema.

Fear of childbirth among pregnant women during crises: the role of resilience and social support

ABSTRACT Background Fear of childbirth (FOC) can be significantly distressful for pregnant women, especially during a crisis. However, how FOC manifests during different types of crises has not been extensively investigated. This study aims to examine the contribution of women’s perinatal characteristics, resilience, social support from their family, partners, and friends, and concern for the foetus to their FOC, and to compare their FOC in two different crisis periods: the COVID-19 pandemic and the Israel-Hamas war. Methods Pregnant women were recruited through social media during two periods: One hundred and ninety-one women were recruited during the COVID-19 pandemic, and 173 during the Israel-Hamas war. The participants were 20–46 years old and completed self-report questionnaires. Results Being pregnant during the COVID-19 pandemic, poorer physical health, at-risk pregnancy, and lower resilience were associated with higher FOC. Furthermore, women perceived greater support from their family and partner, higher concerns for their foetus, and higher FOC during COVID-19 than during wartime. Conclusions The results highlight the vulnerability of having at-risk factors such as worse physical health and at-risk pregnancy, as well as the essential role of resilience as a powerful resource in women’s FOC. They uncover that FOC is a context-dependent phenomenon and may be expressed to different extents under different circumstances. Professionals working with pregnant women should consider intervention programmes to develop psychological resilience to reduce the risk of severe FOC.

Fuzzy Time Series Modeling for Predicting Economic Trends: A Mathematical Exploration

In fact, this research investigates the potential use of FTS models for economic indicators prediction in the Asian area, particularly the GDP growth. However, traditional forecasting approaches tend to fail to represent the uncertainty and nonlinearity of the economic data, especially in crisis periods. By applying fuzzy inference rules and defuzzification to create crisp forecasts from fuzzy sets, FTS models capitalize on the principles of fuzzy logic to provide a versatile and adjustable framework for predicting economic outcomes. Using FTS for GDP growth forecasting, the study utilizes a dataset that includes GDP growth and inflation rates over the years 2010 to 2022. FTS models adapt well to uncertain and volatile economic variables, and although challenges in determining the most suitable fuzzy membership function and fuzzy rules exist, the results demonstrate their potential to extract process understanding. The model gave an accuracy (Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)) of about 5.52 and 5.81, which shows okay predictions, but also we can work on this, and improve our model. To demonstrate the performance of the FTS, we compare to traditional econometric models and machine learning techniques, and highlight the strengths and weaknesses of FTS. This study finally concludes that there is significant potential for evolving FTS models for economic forecasting while future research avenues can assist in developing hybrid fuzzy models, fuzzy clustering and real-time forecasting using FTS models.

Conditions and Results of Innovative Development in Latin America and Russia: a Comparative Analysis

Relevance. The problems of innovative development and effective innovation management have long been a priority in the world economy and, most likely, their relevance will be in the mainstream for many years to come. The paper analyses the provision and performance of innovation processes in nine countries of Latin America and Russia in order to identify the most successful economies in terms of approaches and effects of innovation activity in different evaluation planes. The specifics of structural efficiency of innovation activity components in crisis and post-crisis periods have been studied.Research methods — comparative analysis of the structure of the global innovation index (GII) in the target countries in 2020 and 2023, multiple regression analysis of the impact of resources and innovation results on the level of the global innovation index, t-statistics to compare the innovation dynamics of the target countries in the period from 2020 to 2023.Scientific novelty — on the basis of statistical approach the specifics of innovative development of Latin American countries and Russia and regularities of achieving different levels of the global innovation index in the crisis and postcrisis periods are revealed.The results of the study show that the leaders in terms of GII level among Latin American countries are Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Colombia and Argentina, and the most important for the formation of GII are the components of innovation results — the development of technology and knowledge economy, as well as the results of creative activity. Ecuador and Peru are the countries with the most detached innovation development trajectory. In the year of the covid crisis the components of institutions and market development were particularly developed, in the post-covid year — the level of business development, as well as human capital and research. Finally, the dynamics of GII in Russia is closest to Brazil in most components. The results obtained are of practical value as a reference point in the development and adoption of economic and political decisions on the reallocation and concentration of resources for the development of the most effective components of GII.

Pandemic-related stress and suicide risk among healthcare professionals during the pandemic

Background Depression and suicide are common in the hospital workplace. Extreme stress is more likely in periods of major crisis. Methods To determine the stress levels and sources of stress for healthcare providers, a survey was administered to approximately 3000 clinicians in a single healthcare system in April 2022, gathering both quantitative and free-text responses. Results A total of 485 clinicians completed the questionnaire. Their responses revealed a high level of pandemic-related, personal, and professional stress, as well as burnout. Top stressors included staffing issues, increased workload, isolation and lack of professional connection, administrative and policy struggles, dealing with patient expectations, mental health and emotional toll, lack of resources and support, training and career disruptions, and public misinformation. In addition, 3.9% confided in someone about thoughts of taking their life, and 2% indicated they currently had thoughts of suicide. Overall, 1.8% of respondents experienced no stress; 19.7%, a little stress; 37.9%, a moderate amount of stress; 24.3%, a lot of stress; and 16.4%, a great deal of stress. Conclusions Healthcare institutions must address these issues by providing more support, resources, and mental health services to healthcare workers.

Income Adjustments and Firm Performance During Economic Downturns: Systemic Versus Opportunistic Conservatism

ABSTRACTThis study examines how accounting conservatism affects income adjustments and firm performance during economic crisis periods, distinguishing between systemic conservatism versus opportunism. We find firms practicing conservative accounting in stable periods are less likely to make large income‐decreasing accounting adjustments during crises compared to non‐conservative firms. Conservative firms also show better earnings and market returns, indicating prudent preparation for future economic uncertainty. These benefits are driven by systemic conservatism, while opportunistically conservative firms are penalised. Our findings contribute to the longstanding discussions amongst standard‐setting bodies and other stakeholders about prudence, opportunism, and bias over the past four decades.

An Examination of G10 Carry Trade and Covered Interest Arbitrage Before, During, and After Financial Crises

This paper examines and compares the trading strategies of carry and covered interest arbitrage. This study constructs portfolios for G10 countries based on interest rates’ spot and forward exchange rates. We extend the prior literature by focusing on the profitability of the strategies during and around the two crisis periods, comparing both carry trade (CT), i.e., unhedged, and covered interest arbitrage (CIAT), i.e., hedged. We find that both CT and CIAT have variable profits during the period examined, with both strategies’ profits generally concentrated in the pre-crisis period and most losses in the post-crisis period.

KEY DETERMINANTS OF CASH RESERVES IN MANUFACTURING FIRMS DURING COVID-19 IN INDONESIA

This study investigates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on cash reserves in Indonesian manufacturing companies. The research assesses cash levels before, during, and after the pandemic, and identifies key factors influencing cash holdings. Data from publicly listed manufacturing companies in Indonesia were analyzed, focusing on financial metrics such as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), sales volatility, and net working capital. The findings reveal significant differences in cash, EBITDA, and sales volatility between the pre-crisis (2018-2019) and crisis periods horizons I (2020-2021) and II (2022). The primary determinants of cash holdings were found to be sensitivity of cash flow, capital expenditure, cash flow volatility, net working capital, and debt levels. These factors are crucial in understanding the impact of the pandemic on cash management in Indonesian manufacturing companies.

Who Is Leading in Communication Tone? Wavelet Analysis of the Fed and the ECB

This study examines the relationship between the communication tone of the Fed and that of the ECB over the period from January 2000 to September 2023. The tones were measured using both lexicon-based and transform-based algorithms. Wavelet coherence analysis helped distinguish the scale of the relationship over time and frequency domains. Our findings suggest a dynamic process regarding the lead/lag positions, and the similarity of the two algorithms in the medium run highlights the leading role of the ECB during the (pre-)crisis period of the US and the leading role of the Fed during the QE period of the ECB. Hence, the variability in the leader/follower role suggests no strong predictive structural relationship between the two communication tones.

Organizational Transformation and Leadership Development: A Study of Li Lisan and the CCP Central Committee, 1927–29

AbstractLi Lisan was a pivotal figure in the early Chinese Communist Party (CCP). His meteoric rise and subsequent political line profoundly shaped the party's development during a critical period of transformation. After studying in France and participating in early labour movements, Li emerged as an influential leader during the tumultuous aftermath of the First United Front's collapse. This article examines Li's ascent to power in the CCP from 1927 to 1929, focusing on three critical phases: his appointment as provincial party secretary in the Guangdong province following the failed Guangzhou Uprising; his elevation through the Sixth CCP Congress; and his role in reshaping central–provincial relations. Combining material from Chinese and Soviet sources, the article illustrates how personal networks, centre–periphery dynamics and Comintern influence shaped leadership formation within the early CCP. Li Lisan's case illustrates how revolutionary organizations manage leadership transitions during periods of crisis, balance central authority with local initiative and navigate international relationships. The article contributes to our understanding of institutional adaptation in revolutionary movements and illuminates a crucial yet understudied period in the CCP's organizational development.

The resilience of green bonds to oil shocks during extreme events.

Investments in green energy are increasing exponentially due to rising environmental concerns. Our work scrutinizes the influence of decomposed structural oil shocks on the green bonds in developed countries from November 28, 2008 to May 21, 2021. We use contemporary time-varying methodologies including nonlinear causality and rolling window wavelet correlation tests. We find that green bonds remain strongly correlated with demand and supply shocks in the long run, particularly the green bonds in the UK, US, Japan, and Switzerland during the crisis periods. Japan shows a strong positive correlation with demand shocks over the long run but negative correlation in the short run. In contrast, Norway, New Zealand, and Sweden's green bonds have a positive correlation with supply and demand shocks during the short-run period. Our results carry useful implications for investors and policymakers.