Atlantic Water Pathways Research Articles

The Crucial Role of the Subpolar North Atlantic for Skillful Decadal Climate Predictions

AbstractWe investigate the role of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) for downstream predictability, using two decadal climate prediction systems. We use the subpolar extreme cold and fresh anomaly event developing in winter 2013/2014 as initial conditions and evaluate ensemble predictions of the two systems in the following decade. In addition, we perform ensemble pacemaker experiments where the models are forced toward observed ocean temperature and salinity anomalies in the SPNA from November 2014 through December 2019. The pacemaker experiments show improved skill along the Atlantic Water pathway, compared with the standard decadal predictions, and we therefore conclude that the correct description of the ocean in the SPNA is the key. The enhanced skill is most prominent in subsurface salinity in the form of propagating anomalies.

Responses of Atlantic Water Inflow Through Fram Strait to Arctic Storms

AbstractChanges in the volume transport of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean can affect the heat and mass balance in the central Arctic Ocean. To understand the impacts of Arctic storms on the inflow through Fram Strait, we implemented the NEMO ocean model for the Arctic Ocean, to simulate the decadal variations of the water volume transport through Fram Strait. The simulations suggest that the water inflow tends to be weaker in the decades of the 1960 and 2010s but stronger in the 1980s. The decadal variation is associated with decadal variability of the storm density in the Greenland Sea. When there is an increased storm density near Fram Strait, the southerly wind anomalies dominate the Atlantic water pathway. As a response, there is an increased Atlantic inflow through Fram Strait.

Tracing Atlantic water transit times in the Arctic Ocean: Coupling reprocessing-derived 236U and colored dissolved organic matter to distinguish different pathways

The Fram Strait is a key region for investigating the exchange of Atlantic water with the Arctic Ocean. Uranium-236 (236U) from the two European nuclear reprocessing plants (NRPs) at La Hague and Sellafield provides a unique fingerprint in Atlantic water which can be used for studying its circulation patterns in the Arctic Ocean. And NRPs-derived 236U (236UNRPs) can be identified by its 233U/236U signature. In this study, we use colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption to constrain the selection of three Atlantic branch waters that carried different inputs of 236UNRPs in Fram Strait. This can potentially provide better estimates of transit times of Atlantic waters in the Arctic Ocean. High CDOM levels (a350≥0.35 m−1) in Fram Strait reflect the passage of Atlantic water transported to the Arctic by the Norwegian Coastal Current (NCC) and its extension and subsequently along the Siberian continental slope and shelf where the Ob, Yenisei and Lena rivers supply terrestrial organic matter with significantly high CDOM content. Conversely, low CDOM water represents Atlantic water that has remained off the shelf. Based on CDOM absorption, potential temperature (Θ), potential density (σΘ) and 236U concentration, the path of a given body of Atlantic water could be inferred and an appropriate NRPs input function constrained so that transit times could be estimated. Our results indicate that Arctic High CDOM Water (a350≥0.35 m−1) sourced from the NCC and Barents Sea Branch Water (BSBW) in the Barents Sea Opening has an average of 7–27 yrs transit time in the upper ∼200 m of the western shelf of the Fram Strait. Atlantic Low CDOM Water (a350<0.35 m−1, Θ>2°C) sourced from the Fram Strait Branch Water (FSBW) has a short pathway from the eastern Fram Strait. Arctic Low CDOM / High 236U Water (a350<0.35 m−1, Θ≤2°C, σΘ≤27.97 or 236U concentration ≥15 × 106 atom/L) sourced from the BSBW and the FSBW has an average of 22–28 yrs transit time. These findings demonstrate how combining measurements of CDOM with 236UNRPs can improve the robustness in estimation of transit times of different Atlantic water pathways in the Arctic Ocean. There are limited ways to empirically derive estimates and the values provided offer unique data for comparison with estimates from regional circulation models.

North Atlantic subpolar gyre provides downstream ocean predictability

Slowly varying large-scale ocean circulation can provide climate predictability on decadal time scales. It has been hypothesized that the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) exerts substantial influence on climate predictability. However, a clear identification of the downstream impact of SPG variations is still lacking. Using the MPI-ESM-LR1.2 decadal prediction system, we show that along the Atlantic water pathway, a dynamical link to the SPG causes salinity to be considerably better predicted than temperature. By modulating the slow northward ocean propagation, the subsurface memory of SPG variations enables salinity to be skillfully predicted up to 8 years ahead. In contrast, the SPG loses influence on temperature before Atlantic water penetrates into the Nordic Seas, and in turn, limits temperature to be predicted only 2 years ahead. This study identifies the key role of SPG signals in downstream prediction and highlights how SPG signals determine prediction time scales for different quantities, opening the door for investigating potentially associated predictions in the subarctic for the earth system, marine ecosystems in particular.

Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and Their Predictive Potential along the Atlantic Water Pathway

Abstract We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We focus on the region where warm water flows poleward (i.e., the Atlantic water pathway to the Arctic) and on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Observational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, but we find that SST skill is low with significant skill only at a lead time of 1–2 years. To better understand why the prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we assess the skill of the systems to reproduce a spatiotemporal SST pattern based on observations. The physical mechanism underlying this pattern is a propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes along the major currents, the North Atlantic Current and the Norwegian Atlantic Current. We find that the prediction systems have difficulties in reproducing this pattern. To identify whether the misrepresentation is due to incorrect model physics, we assess the respective uninitialized historical simulations. These simulations also tend to misrepresent the spatiotemporal SST pattern, indicating that the physical mechanism is not properly simulated. However, the representation of the pattern is slightly degraded in the predictions compared to historical runs, which could be a result of initialization shocks and forecast drift effects. Ways to enhance predictions could include improved initialization and better simulation of poleward circulation of anomalies. This might require model resolutions in which flow over complex bathymetry and the physics of mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere are resolved. Significance Statement In this study, we find that dynamical prediction systems and their respective climate models struggle to realistically represent ocean surface temperature variability in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic and Nordic seas on interannual-to-decadal time scales. In previous studies, ocean advection is proposed as a key mechanism in propagating temperature anomalies along the Atlantic water pathway toward the Arctic Ocean. Our analysis suggests that the predicted temperature anomalies are not properly circulated to the north; this is a result of model errors that seems to be exacerbated by the effect of initialization shocks and forecast drift. Better climate predictions in the study region will thus require improving the initialization step, as well as enhancing process representation in the climate models.

Dense mesopelagic sound scattering layer and vertical segregation of pelagic organisms at the Arctic-Atlantic gateway during the midnight sun

Changes in vertical and spatial distributions of zooplankton and small pelagic fish impact the biological carbon pump and the distribution of larger piscivorous fish and marine mammal species. However, their distribution and abundance remain poorly documented at high latitudes because of the difficulties inherent to sampling relatively fast-moving organisms in ice-covered waters. This study documents the under-ice distribution of epipelagic and mesopelagic organisms at the Arctic-Atlantic gateway in spring, during the midnight sun period, using ice-tethered and ship-based echosounders. An epipelagic surface scattering layer composed of copepods consistently occupied the top 60 m and was associated with cold polar surface water (mean temperature of −1.5 °C). A mesopelagic deep scattering layer (DSL), partly composed of fish, persisted between 280 m and 600 m and was associated with modified Atlantic water. Backscattering strength within the DSL was higher than previously reported in the Arctic and north Atlantic, and increased by two orders of magnitude over the continental slope where one of the Atlantic water pathways enters the Arctic Ocean. Mesopelagic organisms did not perform diel vertical migrations. The consistent segregation between copepods at the surface and their predators at mesopelagic depths suggests limited predator–prey interactions during the midnight sun period, even under the ice cover. Predation on copepods by mesopelagic organisms, including fish, could thus be limited to very pulsed events during the seasonal vertical migration of copepods to and from overwintering depths. This suggests that the arctic mesopelagic food web may be decoupled from secondary production in the epipelagic layer throughout most of the year.

Living coccolithophore communities in the central Mediterranean Sea (Summer 2016): Relations between ecology and oceanography

Coccolithophores were collected at 21 stations during summer 2016, from coastal and offshore areas of the Central Mediterranean Sea, to describe the ecology of the coccolithophore community integrating information on their abundance, environmental parameters (salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and fluorescence) and oceanographic data. Emiliania huxleyi dominated the assemblage from surface to intermediate layers, while Florisphaera profunda was more abundant in the deep photic zone. Principal Component Analysis revealed that the distribution of coccolithophore taxa was influenced by environmental parameters: K-strategist taxa were related to warm surface waters, whereas lower photic zone taxa were influenced by the development of a Deep Chlorophyll Maximum and high salinity values, well below the thermocline. These results confirmed that a vertical species zonation, as a typical feature of low-middle latitude, characterizes the Central Mediterranean during summer. The distribution of F. profunda once again confirmed its use as a proxy of Deep Chlorophyll Maximum development and paleoproductivity estimates. Gephyrocapsa spp. (=total Gephyrocapsa), and in particular G. oceanica, were more abundant along the Atlantic Water pathway. Finally, the high concentration value of Helicosphaera carteri, recorded in the Ligurian Sea at an offshore station, suggested an expansion of the opportunist nature of this taxon from coastal environments to the offshore areas characterized by high turbidity and high productivity.

Pathways and Water Mass Transformation Along and Across the Mohn‐Knipovich Ridge in the Nordic Seas

AbstractAtlantic Water takes various pathways through the Nordic Seas, and its transformation to denser waters forms a crucial connection to the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Circulation maps often schematize two distinct pathways of Atlantic Water: one following the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current along the continental slope of Norway and one following the Norwegian Atlantic Front Current along the Mohn and Knipovich Ridges. In this paper, the connectivity between the northward flow along these ridges is investigated. Analyzing trajectories of surface drifters and ARGO floats, we find that only 8% of the floats that travel near the mid‐ocean ridges take the frontal pathway to the north. Indeed, by tracing numerical particles in a realistic numerical simulation, part of the water mass traveling along the Mohn Ridge follows the 2,500 m isobath eastward and joins the slope current, instead of flowing north along the Knipovich Ridge. Furthermore, north of 74°N, frequent exchange between the slope current and the front current is observed. Therefore, the slope current and front current are less isolated than often schematized. Additionally, the observational data set reveals substantial cross‐ridge exchange; 31% of the floats that travel within 60 km from the mid‐ocean ridges cross it. Results from numerical simulations indicate that the cross‐ridge exchange leads to cooling and freshening of the Atlantic Water along the front. Deployments of floats near the mid‐ocean ridges are needed to investigate the pathway of Atlantic Water and its exchange across the ridge in more detail.

Mechanisms Underlying Recent Arctic Atlantification

AbstractRecent warming and reduced sea ice concentrations in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean are the main signatures of ongoing Arctic “Atlantification.” The mechanisms driving the warming trends are nevertheless still debated, particularly regarding the relative importance of oceanic and atmospheric heat fluxes. Here, heat budgets along main Atlantic water pathways through the Barents Sea and Fram Strait are constructed to investigate the mechanisms of Atlantification during 1993–2014. The largest warming trends occur south of the winter ice edge, with ocean advection as the main driver. Warming in the marginal ice zone is mainly due to low surface heat loss from the 1990s to the mid‐2000s. In the ice‐covered northwestern Barents Sea, ocean advection and air‐sea heat fluxes act in concert to drive a gradual warming of the upper ocean. Despite a weakened stratification, no evidence is found of vertical oceanic temperature fluxes driving this upper‐ocean warming.

The Role of Atlantic Heat Transport in Future Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss

AbstractDuring recent decades Arctic sea ice variability and retreat during winter have largely been a result of variable ocean heat transport (OHT). Here we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble simulation to disentangle internally and externally forced winter Arctic sea ice variability, and to assess to what extent future winter sea ice variability and trends are driven by Atlantic heat transport. We find that OHT into the Barents Sea has been, and is at present, a major source of internal Arctic winter sea ice variability and predictability. In a warming world (RCP8.5), OHT remains a good predictor of winter sea ice variability, although the relation weakens as the sea ice retreats beyond the Barents Sea. Warm Atlantic water gradually spreads downstream from the Barents Sea and farther into the Arctic Ocean, leading to a reduced sea ice cover and substantial changes in sea ice thickness. The future long-term increase in Atlantic heat transport is carried by warmer water as the current itself is found to weaken. The externally forced weakening of the Atlantic inflow to the Barents Sea is in contrast to a strengthening of the Nordic Seas circulation, and is thus not directly related to a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The weakened Barents Sea inflow rather results from regional atmospheric circulation trends acting to change the relative strength of Atlantic water pathways into the Arctic. Internal OHT variability is associated with both upstream ocean circulation changes, including AMOC, and large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies reminiscent of the Arctic Oscillation.

Atlantic Water Pathways Along the North‐Western Svalbard Shelf Mapped Using Vessel‐Mounted Current Profilers

AbstractA large amount of warm Atlantic water (AW) enters the Arctic as a boundary current through Fram Strait (West Spitsbergen Current [WSC]) and is the major oceanic heat source to the Arctic Ocean. Along the north‐western Svalbard shelf, the WSC splits into the shallow Svalbard Branch, the Yermak Branch that follows the slope of the Yermak Plateau, and the Yermak Pass Branch flowing across the plateau. The WSC has previously been studied using moorings, dedicated oceanographic transects, and models. In this study, we mapped the circulation patterns and AW flow around Svalbard using Vessel‐Mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler data from multiple surveys during four consecutive summers (2014–2017). Despite the scattered nature of this compiled data set, persistent circulation patterns could be discerned. Spatial interpolation showed a meandering boundary current west of Svalbard and a more homogeneous AW flow, centered around the 1,000‐m isobath north of Svalbard. In all summers, we observed a northward jet between 79 and 80°N and the 1,000‐ and 500‐m isobaths, before the WSC divided into the three branches. North of Svalbard, the shallow Svalbard Branch reunited with the Yermak Pass Branch between 10 and 15°E and a part of the AW circulated within Hinlopen Trench. The calculated volume transport of 2 Sv in the upper 500 m compares well with model results and previous observations. Our results further show that the Yermak Pass Branch can be as important as the Svalbard Branch in transporting AW across the Yermak Plateau during summer.

Mid-winter anomaly of sea ice in the Western Nansen Basin in 2010s

In this paper we review our earlier predictions of progressive “atlantification” of the Nansen Basin, meaning further eastward advance of the sub-polar structural water type along the Atlantic Water pathway. Fast and persistent reduction of sea ice area in the Western Nansen Basin in mid-winter after 2012 confirms the validity of our basic concept and gives some confidence for making cautious projection of future hydrographic and ice conditions in the Eastern Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean.

Cross-slope flow in the Atlantic Inflow Current driven by the on-shelf deflection of a slope current

We identify a newly described current, the Atlantic Inflow Current (AIC), a persistent pathway of Atlantic Water from the European Slope onto the Malin Shelf. Using drifters and gliders we examine the vertical and horizontal structure of the AIC and use Lagrangian statistics to quantify lateral mixing along its path. We estimate this current to have a transport of approximately 0.2 Sv, advecting 2.8 TW of heat onto the shelf (referenced to 7 °C) and 2.4 kT/day of the limiting nutrient, nitrate. This nutrient-rich AIC joins the Irish Coastal Current, continuing into the Minch and the outer Hebridean Shelf before ultimately entering the North Sea. The biological consequences of the influx of water masses and nutrients onto the shelf can range from altering primary production, and subsequent food web dynamics, to recruitment of fish larvae from oceanic water. A better understanding of the current dynamics described here is crucial for the assessment of shelf sea primary production and its impacts on carbon draw-down as well as recruitment for commercially important fisheries.

Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model

The growing attention on mechanisms that can provide predictability on interannual-to-decadal time scales, makes it necessary to identify how well climate models represent such mechanisms. In this study we use a high (0.25° horizontal grid) and a medium (1°) resolution version of a forced global ocean-sea ice model, utilising the Norwegian Earth System Model, to assess the impact of increased ocean resolution. Our target is the simulation of temperature and salinity anomalies along the pathway of warm Atlantic water in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. Although the high resolution version has larger biases in general at the ocean surface, the poleward propagation of thermohaline anomalies is better resolved in this version, i.e., the time for an anomaly to travel northward is more similar to observation based estimates. The extent of these anomalies can be rather large in both model versions, as also seen in observations, e.g., stretching from Scotland to northern Norway. The easternmost branch into the Nordic and Barents Seas, carrying warm Atlantic water, is also improved by higher resolution, both in terms of mean heat transport and variability in thermohaline properties. A more detailed assessment of the link between the North Atlantic Ocean circulation and the thermohaline anomalies at the entrance of the Nordic Seas reveals that the high resolution is more consistent with mechanisms that are previously published. This suggests better dynamics and variability in the subpolar region and the Nordic Seas in the high resolution compared to the medium resolution. This is most likely due a better representation of the mean circulation in the studied region when using higher resolution. As the poleward propagation of ocean heat anomalies is considered to be a key source of climate predictability, we recommend that similar methodology presented herein should be performed on coupled climate models that are used for climate prediction.

Kongsfjorden and Hornsund hydrography – comparative study based on a multiyear survey in fjords of west Spitsbergen

Summary A recent study has shown increased warming in the fjords of west Spitsbergen. Their location is critical, as they are situated along the main northward pathway of Atlantic Water (AW) which is a great source of heat to the Arctic Ocean and the fjords. In the light of ongoing warming, we aim to discuss differences between the fjords under northward transformation of oceanic waters. We compared summer hydrographic conditions in two fjords located in two opposite ends of west Spistbergen: Hornsund in the south and Kongsfjorden in the north. The study is based on high resolution CTD measurements collected during Arctic cruises between 2001 and 2015. The emphasis was put not only on differences in water temperature, salinity and water masses but also the freshwater content ( FWC ), AW transport and heat delivery to the fjords. In general, the water in Kongsfjorden is on average 1°C warmer and its salinity is higher by 0.5 compared to Hornsund. It is also characterized by two times greater transport of AW and heat delivery to the fjord. On the other hand, Hornsund reveals two times higher FWC . Both fjords undergo a gradual warming due to an increased presence of Atlantic origin waters. The ongoing warming is accompanied by an increase in variability of temperature and salinity dependent on the domination of the Sorkapp Current (SC) or the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) on the West Spitsbergen Shelf (WSS). Nonetheless, Hornsund remains more Arctic-type fjord compared to Kongsfjorden, due to stronger blocking by SC.

Atlantic waters inflow north of Svalbard: Insights from IAOOS observations and Mercator Ocean global operational system during N-ICE2015

As part of the N-ICE2015 campaign, IAOOS (Ice Atmosphere Ocean Observing System) platforms gathered intensive winter data at the entrance of Atlantic Water (AW) inflow to the Arctic Ocean north of Svalbard. These data are used to examine the performance of the 1/12° resolution Mercator Ocean global operational ice/ocean model in the marginal ice zone north of Svalbard. Modeled sea-ice extent, ocean heat fluxes, mixed layer depths, and AW mass characteristics are in good agreement with observations. Model outputs are then used to put the observations in a larger spatial and temporal context. Model outputs show that AW pathways over and around the Yermak Plateau differ in winter from summer. In winter, the large AW volume transport of the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) (∼4 Sv) proceeds to the North East through 3 branches: the Svalbard Branch (∼0.5 Sv) along the northern shelf break of Svalbard, the Yermak Branch (∼1.1 Sv) along the western slope of the Yermak Plateau and the Yermak Pass Branch (∼2.0 Sv) through a pass in the Yermak Plateau at 80.8°N. In summer, the AW transport in the WSC is smaller (∼2 Sv) and there is no transport through the Yermak Pass. Although only eddy-permitting in the area, the model suggests an important mesoscale activity throughout the AW flow. The large differences in ice extent between winters 2015 and 2016 follow very distinct atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the preceding summer and autumn seasons. Convection-induced upward heat fluxes maintained the area free of ice in winter 2016. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Arctic Ocean Heat Impact on Regional Ice Decay: A Suggested Positive Feedback

AbstractBroad, long-living, ice-free areas in midwinter northeast of Svalbard between 2011 and 2014 are investigated. The formation of these persistent and reemerging anomalies is linked, hypothetically, with the increased seasonality of Arctic sea ice cover, enabling an enhanced influence of oceanic heat on sea ice and, in particular, heat transported by Atlantic Water. The “memory” of ice-depleted conditions in summer is transferred to the fall season through excess heat content in the upper mixed layer, which in turn transfers to midwinter via thinner and younger ice. This thinner ice is more fragile and mobile, thus facilitating the formation of polynyas and leads. When openings in ice cover form along the Atlantic Water pathway, weak density stratification at the mixed layer base supports the development of thermohaline convection, which further entrains warm and salty water from deeper layers. Convection-induced upward heat flux from the Atlantic layer retards ice formation, either keeping ice thickness low or blocking ice formation entirely. Certain stages of this chain of events have been examined in a region north of Svalbard and Franz Joseph Land, between 80° and 83°N and 15° and 60°E, where the top hundred meters of Atlantic inflow through the Fram Strait cools and freshens rapidly. Complementary research methods, including statistical analyses of observations and numerical modeling, are used to support the basic concept that the recently observed retreat of sea ice northeast of Svalbard in winter may be explained by a positive feedback between summer ice decay and the growing influence of oceanic heat on a seasonal time scale.

Loss of sea ice during winter north of Svalbard

Sea ice loss in the Arctic Ocean has up to now been strongest during summer. In contrast, the sea ice concentration north of Svalbard has experienced a larger decline during winter since 1979. The trend in winter ice area loss is close to 10% per decade, and concurrent with a 0.3°C per decade warming of the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean in this region. Simultaneously, there has been a 2°C per decade warming of winter mean surface air temperature north of Svalbard, which is 20–45% higher than observations on the west coast. Generally, the ice edge north of Svalbard has retreated towards the northeast, along the Atlantic Water pathway. By making reasonable assumptions about the Atlantic Water volume and associated heat transport, we show that the extra oceanic heat brought into the region is likely to have caused the sea ice loss. The reduced sea ice cover leads to more oceanic heat transferred to the atmosphere, suggesting that part of the atmospheric warming is driven by larger open water area. In contrast to significant trends in sea ice concentration, Atlantic Water temperature and air temperature, there is no significant temporal trend in the local winds. Thus, winds have not caused the long-term warming or sea ice loss. However, the dominant winds transport sea ice from the Arctic Ocean into the region north of Svalbard, and the local wind has influence on the year-to-year variability of the ice concentration, which correlates with surface air temperatures, ocean temperatures, as well as the local wind.

Heat loss from the Atlantic water layer in the northern Kara Sea: causes and consequences

Abstract. A distinct, subsurface density front along the eastern St. Anna Trough in the northern Kara Sea is inferred from hydrographic observations in 1996 and 2008–2010. Direct velocity measurements show a persistent northward subsurface current (~ 18 cm s−1) along the St. Anna Trough eastern flank. This sheared flow, carrying the outflow from the Barents and Kara seas to the Arctic Ocean, is also evident from shipboard observations as well as from geostrophic velocities and numerical model simulations. Although we cannot substantiate our conclusions by direct observation-based estimates of mixing rates in the area, we hypothesize that the enhanced vertical mixing along the St. Anna Trough eastern flank favors the upward heat loss from the intermediate warm Atlantic water layer. Modeling results support this hypothesis. The upward heat flux inferred from hydrographic data and model simulations is of O(30–100) W m−2. The region of lowered sea ice thickness and concentration seen both in sea ice remote sensing observations and model simulations marks the Atlantic water pathway in the St. Anna Trough and adjacent Nansen Basin continental margin. In fact, the sea ice shows a delayed freeze-up onset during fall and a reduction in the sea ice thickness during winter. This is consistent with our results on the enhanced Atlantic water heat loss along the Atlantic water pathway in the St. Anna Trough.

THE ROLE OF THE BARENTS SEA IN THE ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM

Present global warming is amplified in the Arctic and accompanied by unprecedented sea ice decline. Located along the main pathway of Atlantic Water entering the Arctic, the Barents Sea is the site of coupled feedback processes that are important for creating variability in the entire Arctic air‐ice‐ocean system. As warm Atlantic Water flows through the Barents Sea, it loses heat to the Arctic atmosphere. Warm periods, like today, are associated with high northward heat transport, reduced Arctic sea ice cover, and high surface air temperatures. The cooling of the Atlantic inflow creates dense water sinking to great depths in the Arctic Basins, and ~60% of the Arctic Ocean carbon uptake is removed from the carbon‐saturated surface this way. Recently, anomalously large ocean heat transport has reduced sea ice formation in the Barents Sea during winter. The missing Barents Sea winter ice makes up a large part of observed winter Arctic sea ice loss, and in 2050, the Barents Sea is projected to be largely ice free throughout the year, with 4°C summer warming in the formerly ice‐covered areas. The heating of the Barents atmosphere plays an important role both in “Arctic amplification” and the Arctic heat budget. The heating also perturbs the large‐scale circulation through expansion of the Siberian High northward, with a possible link to recent continental wintertime cooling. Large air‐ice‐ocean variability is evident in proxy records of past climate conditions, suggesting that the Barents Sea has had an important role in Northern Hemisphere climate for, at least, the last 2500 years.