Party Choice Research Articles

Anti‐SLAPP Legislation and Environmental Protection in the USA: An Overview of Direct and Indirect Effects

Anti‐SLAPP (Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation) protections lead to changes in the dynamic and complex interactions between private citizens, environmental regulators and polluting entities. Direct impacts are legally significant, but if our interest is in environmental and enforcement outcomes, indirect effects are likely to be more important. Changes in perceived legal and regulatory threats impact the choices of many parties who are never involved in an actual SLAPP suit. This paper describes the expected direction and type of interactions when anti‐SLAPP protections are enacted and discuss the conclusions that follow from research to date.

Young people, parents and radical right voting. The Case of the Swiss People’s Party

It is commonly found that young people tend to adopt the political party choice of their parents. However, far less is known about the applicability of this theory when investigating radical right support. Using the Swiss Household panel data (1999–2007), this study empirically identifies the relationship between parents’ preference for the Swiss radical right party SVP and their attitudes toward immigrants and the EU, and their offspring’s preference for the SVP. Disaggregating fathers’ and mothers’ influence reveals that in particular, mothers’ SVP support plays a role in SVP support among young people, even after controlling for educational similarities. We also demonstrate that girls are more likely to be influenced by their mothers than are boys. Furthermore, parents’ negative attitudes toward the EU exert a positive influence on their children’s radical right voting, independent of their voting pattern.

Voters and coalition governments

Coalition governments are the norm in parliamentary democracies. Yet, despite the predominance of this type of government, political scientists have only recently started to investigate how voters approach elections when a coalition government is the likely outcome. Such elections present additional uncertainty and complexity for voters compared with elections in plurality systems, where party choice translates more directly into a choice of government. These factors have lead to the assumption that strategic voting is unlikely to occur in systems that produce coalition governments. In this introductory article to the special issue on Voters and Coalition Governments, we consider whether voters have the capacity to anticipate specific coalition outcomes and propose a framework for understanding the conditions that lead to strategic voting in both plurality and proportional systems.

Much Ado about Not Very Much: The Electoral Consequences of Postal Voting at the 2005 British General Election

The liberalisation of the rules covering postal voting attracted a good deal of attention during the 2005 general election campaign, including several allegations of fraud and malpractice. This article uses both survey and aggregate-level data to examine the increase in the numbers of postal voters and its impact on both turnout and party choice at that election. It demonstrates the legacy of the all-postal voting pilots held between 2000 and 2004 in prompting a rise in the postal electorate, and a consequent reduction in the correlation between constituency marginality and turnout. In general, however, postal voting on demand did not prove to be a panacea for the turnout ‘problem’ and had only a very weak effect on the distribution of party support.

Election Campaigns on the Internet

This article investigates whether political use of the Internet affects users politically. Using a combination of log- and survey data from a study of Internet use during the Danish 2007 parliamentary election, a number of hypotheses are tested. The investigation finds that 30% of the survey respondents say they are influenced politically by their Internet use. However, they are only modestly influenced when it comes to “core values” such as party choice or important political issues, while respondents are affected more in terms of general political opinions and opinions on different candidates. Political interest is found to act as an important determinant for political activity on the Internet, and certain types of uses are found to have more profound political effects than others. Somewhat paradoxically—but in line with Zaller (1992) — those indicating they are “little” or “somewhat” interested in politics are found to be the most politically affected.

Social Dimensions of Party Choice in Albania

Social Dimensions of Party Choice in Albania

コンジョイント分析による有権者の政党選択に関する研究

The House of Representatives General Election held on September 11th of 2005, handed the Liberal Democratic Party(LDP) an overwhelming victory after a long drawn out political campaign. However, as regards to the informed or qualified voter, it had almost seemed impossible for a choice enthusiast to vote for the LDP on the basis of their policies. Therefore, this report argues that a distinction must be made between a qualified voter with real choice and that of one with limited political voter choice. It also aims to classify people of electoral limitedness in an election for policy enthusiasts, on the basis of political party choice with conjoint analysis.Although the immediate objectives of the electoral result cannot be established with certainty, it is highly likely that the outcome was as a result of an election based on limited choice by a qualified voter, with little or no political affiliation to the LDP.

The Effect of Governor Support on Legislative Behaviour in the Russian Duma

Until the 2007 Duma election, the Russian polity displayed several characteristics that should have allowed regional leaders to have an impact on deputies: a federalist system, an electoral system that encouraged regional representation, weak political parties, and regional leaders with electoral resources. Recent research on Russian mixed-member Duma elections argues that governors influenced the election of single-member district deputies. This raises the spectre that governors could have influenced the behaviour of these deputies. Using data from the third post-communist Duma, I demonstrate that single-member district deputies backed by regional leaders in the 1999 Duma election behaved differently from others in two critical areas: parliamentary party choice and support for the presidential legislative agenda. Governor support did not, however, affect committee choice.

Inter-party vote movements in Turkey: The sources of AKP votes in 2007

Bu calismada, Temmuz 2007 genel seciminden kisa bir sure once ulke capinda gerceklestirilen bir secmen egilimleri anketinin verilerilerine dayanarak, 2002-2007 donemindeki oy kaymalari, Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP) odakli olarak incelenmistir. Veri setinin ikili ve dortlu gruplandirmalara dayanan betimleyici analizi, AKP’nin bu donemde kendine cekmeyi basardigi yeni secmen kitlesinin, partiden destegini ceken nispeten kucuk kitleye gore daha genc, kadin agirlikli, ekonomik kosullardan memnun ve AB uyeligi yanlisi oldugunu ortaya koymaktadir. AKP’yi tercih eden secmenlerin toplumun geri kalanina nazaran daha az egitimli oldugu ve laiklik konusundaki endiselerinin dusuk duzeyde oldugu da gorulmektedir. Ekonometrik calismanin en dikkat cekici bulgusu, 2007 secimindeki parti tercihiyle, - ozellikle geriye donuk - ekonomik degerlendirmeler arasinda guclu bir baginti oldugudur.

Another (small) step on the road towards a multi-party Britain – turnout and party choice at the 2009 local and European Parliament elections

The 2009 European Parliament and local elections were overshadowed by the revelations about Members of Parliament and their expenses claims. Although turnout at the contests was within the normal range, public reaction to the scandal could be seen in increased support for parties other than those with substantial representation at Westminster. This marked the continuation of a trend for voters to desert the political mainstream at second-order elections in particular. It could well be a feature of the forthcoming general election too but, handicapped by the operation of the electoral system, is unlikely there to lead to a significant advance in seats for these ‘other’ parties.

Party Autonomy and Choice of Law: Is International Arbitration Leading the Way or Marching to the Beat of its Own Drummer?

National courts have restricted party autonomy in choice of law in a variety of ways. In international arbitration, on the other hand, the march of party autonomy has been unhindered. National courts have abetted this process in the international arbitration context, even as they have maintained restrictions on party autonomy in choice of law within their own legal systems. This phenomenon, combined with the gradual loosening of restrictions on party autonomy in national legal systems, has led some to claim that international arbitration is leading the nations of the world into a global choice of law regime in which party autonomy reigns. Such triumphalists look forward to the day when party autonomy is as unrestricted in national courts as it is in arbitration.This article argues that such a day is unlikely to arrive. The different pressures and interests that shape national court litigation on the one hand, and international arbitration on the other, are likely to generate different levels of support for party autonomy in choice of law. As a result, regardless of whether more party autonomy in choice of law is preferable in all contexts, or whether it ought to have a wider scope in arbitration than in litigation, arbitrators are likely to maintain greater deference to party autonomy than will national legislatures or courts.Note: This paper represents an early version of some concepts and arguments that I develop better and in more depth in my book, The Culture of International Arbitration and the Evolution of Contract Law (Oxford University Press, 2013).

Changing Patterns in the Impact of Information on Party Choice in a Multiparty System

Simulations of changing levels of political knowledge among Danish voters in the 1971 and 2005 general elections reveal a strong impact on party choice. The analysis advances previous simulations from the American two-party system to a multiparty system by applying survey data from the Danish Election Studies. In both multiparty elections, the impact of information has significant consequences for party choice. In 1971, political knowledge seems to be the variable connecting class with party choice, whereas political knowledge seems to be the variable connecting issues with party choice in 2005. The information effects are greater than the effects observed in similar analyses of the American two-party system, thus suggesting a positive relationship between the number of parties and the impact of political knowledge. Finally, the analysis supports the notion that right-leaning parties tend to fare better if political knowledge increases.

Being intolerant of the intolerant. The exclusion of Western European anti-immigration parties and its consequences for party choice

In various European countries established parties have responded quite differently to the recent rise of anti-immigration parties. In Italy and Austria these parties entered governing coalitions. In France and Belgium the established parties agreed never to collaborate in any way with anti-immigration parties. In this paper we aim to assess whether this strategy of exclusion affects the electoral support for anti-immigration parties. To answer the research questions, we link expert survey data to individual-level survey data and perform analyses across 11 parties and across 4 time points. We find that the effect of exclusion depends on the institutional context, in particular the threshold for entering parliament, and the influence of parliamentary opposition parties on policy-making. According to our estimates the former Flemish Bloc benefited from being excluded and the Northern League in Italy would have benefited if it had been excluded. The Danish Progress Party, on the other hand, would have been hurt if it had been excluded. The other parties in our analyses are hardly affected. To the extent that the exclusion of anti-immigration parties is meant to change electoral outcomes in favour of the established parties, its success is thus quite mixed.

The European Issue and Party Choice at British General Elections, 1974–2005

Political scientists have long debated whether “issues” influence vote choices. It is now generally agreed, however, that policy preferences and evaluations of party performance have some limited impact on vote decisions. It has also been shown that the influence of issues varies both between individuals and between elections. This article adds to our understanding of these issues by examining how the European issue influenced individual vote decisions at each general election since 1974. We use Manifesto Research Group (MRG) data to show that the effect of Europe on individual vote decisions increases as the parties became more polarized and decreases as they converge on the European issue.

Religion and Party Choice in Europe

This paper investigates religiosity in relation to party choice in European Parliament elections. Conventional wisdom tells us that as Europe has secularised, the effect of religion on party choice should also have diminished. Yet, this cross-national and cross-temporal study of religious voting in European elections from 1989 to 2004 paints a more nuanced picture. It shows that a) the effect of religion has been declining, but has increased in recent years, b) religion matters in particular for voting for Christian Democratic parties and Conservative parties, c) while generational replacement reduces the overall effect of religion on electoral decisions, the effect of religion has recently increased within each generation, and d) the impact of religion depends on the religious context in which citizens live so that religion plays a bigger role in fractionalised societies. These findings are discussed in the light of a revived importance of religion for European politics.

The Clarity of Policy Alternatives, Left–Right and the European Parliament Vote in 2004

The importance of the left–right divide for party choice is well established, both for legislative and European Parliament (EP) elections. However, the conditions under which left–right self‐placement becomes more or less important in explaining the vote in both legislative and EP elections are clearly understudied. The article uses the 2004 EP elections as a laboratory to understand if there are indeed systematic differences between political systems’ characteristics that might explain variation in terms of the strength of the relationship between left–right self‐placement and the vote. Using the survey data from the European Election Study 2004 (twenty‐one EU member states), the paper has two goals. First, to examine whether citizens’ left–right self‐placement has a different impact on the vote in different types of democratic regime, defined in terms of the contrast between consolidating and long‐established democracies. Secondly, to examine whether this contrast resists the introduction of controls for three other factors hypothesized to make a difference in the extent to which left–right orientations have a greater influence on the vote: the permissiveness of electoral system; the clarity of policy alternatives provided by the party system; and the particular type of party alignments along both the left–right and anti‐/pro‐integration scales that tend to characterize each country. Our findings corroborate that (the 2004 EP) elections do seem to be about choosing parties in terms of left–right orientations to a considerable extent. Furthermore, we found that the usefulness of left–right orientations as cues to the vote seems to be contingent upon a major contextual factor: greater levels of clarity of the policy alternatives provided by the party system render citizens’ left–right self‐placement more consequential for their EP vote. Finally, we found that left–right orientations may not be equally useful in consolidating and in the remaining established democracies.

Social Class and Party Choice in Northern Ireland's Ethnic Blocs

The peace process in Northern Ireland has not diminished the acute ethnic electoral faultline between the majority Protestant British population, supportive of parties favouring Northern Ireland's continuing place in the United Kingdom and the minority Catholic Nationalist population, which backs parties harbouring long-term ambitions for a united Ireland. Within each bloc, however, there has been a dramatic realignment in favour of parties once seen as extreme and militant. The Democratic Unionist Party has emerged as the main representative of the Protestant British population, whilst Sinn Fein, having for many years supported the Provisional IRA's ‘armed struggle’ against British rule, has become the dominant party amongst Catholic Nationalists. As both parties have entered the political mainstream and advanced electorally, to what extent have they moved from their electoral near-confinement among the working class to enjoy broader cross-class support – and how?

Party Organization and Electoral Competition

We propose a model in which two parties select the internal organization that helps them win the election. Party choices provide incentives to the politicians who represent them. Depending on whether politicians are opportunistic or partisan, we identify four effects. First, a selection effect: intraparty competition gives parties more candidates to choose from. Second, an incentive effect: intraparty competition adds a hurdle and impacts on candidates' incentives. Third, a trust effect: because of the incentive effect, intraparty competition is a signal to uninformed voters. Finally, with partisan preferences, an ideology effect appears. Ideology is a public good in a competitive party and induces free riding. Intraparty competition is valuable when voters are badly informed or intraparty competition is weak. These results rationalize the introduction of direct primaries in the United States, the organizational changes in Western European parties since 1960, and the organizational differences between centrist and extreme parties.

The more, the better? Counterfactual evidence on the effect of compulsory voting on the consistency of party choice

AbstractCompulsory voting (CV) undoubtedly raises electoral turnout. Yet does it also affect individual party choices and aggregate election outcomes? Previous studies have focused on partisan or ‘directional’ effects of CV in favour of, for example, social‐democratic or anti‐establishment parties. These effects are usually small, however. Using survey data from the Belgian General Elections Study, this article finds that CV primarily affects the consistency, rather than the direction, of party choices. In particular, the analyses suggest that CV compels a substantial share of uninterested and less knowledgeable voters to the polls. These voters, in turn, cast votes that are clearly less consistent with their own political preferences than those of the more informed and motivated voluntary voters. Claims that CV promotes equal representation of political interests are therefore questionable.

Empirical Results on the Predictive Power of Basic Personal Values and Core Political Attitudes in Turkish Politics

Using data from a 2009 survey of electoral tendencies, we investigate the predictive power of Turkish people’s basic personal values and core political attitudes in explaining their political choices. Through logit analysis and the comparison of the sub-sample means of the available variables, we examine the characteristics of the voters of the two major parties of the political scene, namely the Justice and Development Party and the Republican People’s Party. Our main finding is that in the presence of the more conventional determinants of party choice such as education and the placement on the left-right scale, values and attitudes contribute little to the prediction of the choice between the two parties in question.