Paris Agreement Commitments Research Articles

Strengthening the Paris Agreement through trade? The potential and limitations of EU preferential trade agreements for climate governance

AbstractSince 2019, a commitment has been included in the European Union’s (EU) preferential trade agreements to effectively implement the Paris Agreement. This commitment now exists in nine ratified or pending trade agreements. Yet research into the legal nature and institutional implications of this linkage between the Paris Agreement and EU trade agreements remains scant. Relying on the governance stringency framework, we explore the evolution of this commitment across EU trade agreements, highlighting its transition from a statement of shared intent into a legally binding obligation. We argue that the EU’s latest trade agreements increase the cost of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and bolster the Paris Agreement’s obligations of conduct, namely parties’ procedural duties, the expectation of progressively more ambitious climate pledges, and the commitment of all parties to realise these to the best of their efforts. Finally, we suggest that the implementation and enforcement mechanisms available through EU trade agreements in the context of the Paris Agreement commitment may prove pivotal in realising the climate regime’s objectives.

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT IN HANDLING CLIMATE CHANGE DUE TO FOREST FIRES IN INDONESIA 2015-2019

Forest fires in Indonesia have become an annual recurring event, considering that Indonesia is a member of the Paris Agreement and ratified the agreement. Thus, Indonesia must be able to commit to the contents of the contract. This research uses a qualitative method and will then be analyzed using the concepts that have been selected. The author uses secondary data with search techniques and data collection through written sources. It is understood that the Government has successfully developed various plans to reduce forest fires by the Paris Agreement commitments. However, there is hesitation in developing effective climate action, and shortcomings emerge, thus reinforcing that the lack of seriousness of this effort can affect Indonesia's Contribution to global efforts. The Government needs to be more serious in carrying out the commitments that have been made in a structured manner and hopes that it can resolve this case as well and as wisely as possible.

Carbonservation with Demonstrated Biodiversity and Carbon Gains: Carbon Can Pay But Biodiversity Must Lead

Land use has a critical role to play in both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and increasingly there have been calls to integrate policies for concurrently meeting Paris Agreement commitments and the UN decade on ecosystem restoration 2021–2030. Currently however, investment activities have been dominated by climate change mitigation activities, including through the development of carbon markets (both voluntary and compliance markets). Whilst climate change mitigation is to be welcomed, the prioritization of carbon in avoided deforestation and reforestation can lead to suboptimal or negative outcomes for biodiversity. Restoration of degraded native vegetation may provide an opportunity for concurrent production of both carbon and biodiversity benefits, by harnessing existing carbon markets without the need to trade-off biodiversity outcomes. Here we demonstrate that carbon sequestered by restoring degraded temperate woodland can pay the price of the restored biodiversity. This is shown using conservative carbon prices in an established market (during both a voluntary and compliance market phase), and the restoration price revealed by a 10-year conservation incentive payment scheme. When recovery rates are high, market prices for carbon could pay the full price of restoration, with additional independent investment needed in cases where recovery trajectories are slower. Using carbon markets to fund restoration of degraded native vegetation thereby provides a solution for constrained resources and problematic trade-offs between carbon and biodiversity outcomes. Multi-attribute markets offer the potential to greatly increase the extent of restoration for biodiversity conservation, while providing an affordable source of carbon sequestration and enhancing economic benefits to landowners.

Marine-Based Renewable Energy Solution for 3T Areas in Indonesia: Integrating Diesel Hybridization with Floating PV Power Plant

To fulfill Paris Agreement commitments, an effective strategy involves advancing renewable energy (RE) adoption, especially in 3T (underdeveloped, frontier, outermost) regions dependent on diesel power. Nain Island, a 3T area, relies on a 200kW diesel plant operating 7 hours/day for 1004 households. This research aims to extend electricity services to 24 hours/day without extra fuel by integrating a 300 kWp photovoltaic (PV) plant with the existing diesel setup. Determining PV capacity considers parameters like diesel capacity, load profile, households, and outage rates. Implementing the PV plant encounters challenges due to limited land and hilly terrain. The solution proposes floating PV plant technology, globally successful and applicable in Indonesia. Placement on the northern coastal area of Nain Island, near the existing diesel plant, addresses land limitations. Detailed design considerations, including wave patterns, wind speed, and bathymetry, are crucial for successful implementation. Upon deployment, the system promises a substantial increase in electricity service without additional fuel consumption, leading to a reduction of 389 tons/year in CO2 emissions. This innovative approach aligns with global sustainability goals, showcasing the potential for renewable energy integration in remote areas and underscoring the significance of environmentally friendly solutions.

Emergent increase in coral thermal tolerance reduces mass bleaching under climate change

Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs.

Drivers of Bilateral Climate Finance Aid: The Roles of Paris Agreement Commitments, Public Governance, and Multilateral Institutions

Using granular data from the OECD from 2010 to 2018 that differentiate between adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change, we employed a double-hurdle model to examine whether countries’ Paris Agreement commitments and governance capacity help attract international climate-change-related financial aid. We found that (1) countries received a short-term aid boost in the year when they submitted the nationally determined contribution, and countries that committed only to action targets rather than emission goals were more likely to receive funds; (2) both the quality of the budget and financial management and the quality of public administration significantly enhanced the likelihood of receiving aid, but only the quality of public administration contributed to attracting funding for adaptations; and (3) multilateral institutions played catalytic roles in fostering bilateral international climate-change aid, particularly by increasing the likelihood of funding.

Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates.

Mountains are among the natural systems most affected by climate change, and mountain mammals are considered particularly imperiled, given their high degree of specialization to narrow tolerance bands of environmental conditions. Climate change mitigation policies, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential to stem climate change impacts on natural systems. But how significant is the Paris Agreement to the survival of mountain mammals? We investigated how alternative emission scenarios may determine change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates in 2050. We based our predictions of future change in species niches based on how species have responded to past environmental changes, focusing on the probabilities of niche shrink and niche stability. We found that achieving the Paris Agreement's commitments would substantially reduce climate instability for mountain species. Specifically, limiting global warming to below 1.5°C would reduce the probability of niche shrinkage by 4% compared with a high-emission scenario. Globally, carnivores showed greater niche shrinkage than ungulates, whereas ungulates were more likely to shift their niches (i.e., face a level of climate change that allows adaptation). Twenty-three species threatened by climate change according to the IUCN Red List had greater niche contraction than other species we analyzed (3% higher on average). We therefore argue that climate mitigation policies must be coupled with rapid species-specific conservation intervention and sustainable land-use policies to avoid high risk of loss of already vulnerable species.

The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax to meet the U.S. Paris agreement target: The role of firm creation and technology adoption

We analyze the labor market and aggregate effects of a carbon tax in a framework with pollution externalities and equilibrium unemployment. Our model incorporates labor force participation and two margins of adjustment influenced by carbon taxes: (1) firm creation and (2) green production-technology adoption. A carbon-tax policy that reduces carbon emissions by 35 percent—broadly consistent with Biden Administration’s new Paris Agreement commitment—can generate mild positive long-run effects on consumption and output, an expansion in the number and fraction of firms that use green technologies, and greater labor force participation, with marginal changes in the unemployment rate. In the short term, the adjustment to a higher carbon tax need not be accompanied by losses in output and consumption or a substantial increase in unemployment. Abstracting from green technology adoption implies that the same policy has substantial adverse short- and long-term effects on labor income, consumption, and output. Our findings highlight the importance of considering endogenous technology adoption in assessments of the labor market and aggregate effects of a carbon tax.

Combining data envelopment analysis and Random Forest for selecting optimal locations of solar PV plants

Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy has emerged as a potential alternative to carbon-based energies to meet the Paris agreement commitment. This study investigates the effect of environmental variables on the efficiency of solar PV panels. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to estimate efficiencies of 91 solar PV panels located in Australia during the time period 2010–2020. The effects of environmental variables on the estimated efficiencies are quantified using the truncated regression model. Random forest is then used to predict efficiency of solar PV panel in every city of Australia. The results allow to determine the most suitable location and regions for solar PV energy production in Australia. This study provides an interesting and easily interpretable tool for policy decision makers.

A feminist climate policy? Examining Canada’s climate commitments

ABSTRACT The Canadian government recently oriented its foreign policy in a ‘feminist’ direction, including the launch of Canada’s Feminist International Assistance Policy (FIAP). At the same time, the Trudeau government has also reoriented Canada’s efforts to address climate change, ratifying the Paris Agreement in 2016. This article reviews Canada’s Paris Agreement commitments, formalized in Canada’s Nationally Determined Contributions and National Communications, through the lens of feminist analysis. While Canada has made significant efforts to mainstream gender into its climate commitments, these commitments emphasize a focus on women in the Global South and the reinforcement of common assumptions about women, climate change and development. In doing so, Canada’s efforts to integrate gender into its global climate commitments overlook the realities of gender and climate change in the Global North, as well as areas in which feminist analysis is needed, specifically in technological development and strategies to mitigate climate change.

European green policy announcements and sectoral stock returns

To fulfill the Paris Agreement commitments and stimulated by an unprecedented amount of public resources put in place to recover from the COVID-induced recession, European governments have recently announced sizable green policy plans. In this paper, we examine the behavior of green and brown portfolios around green policy-related announcements (GPAs) made by major European governments in 2020 via a standard event study analysis and the use of returns of stocks listed in the “STOXX 100 All Europe”. Our main empirical findings indicate the presence of positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) both in the green and brown sectors following GPAs. However, the estimated positive sentiment effect is stronger in the former sector. A size effect in terms of the amount of resources announced to be allocated for a specific category of policy is also observed. We find that the observed positive sentiment is mainly driven by announcements on climate change mitigation-related policies, which account for 70% of the total allocated funds. At the sector level, positive and significant CARs due to GPAs are found in the (i) energy, (ii) financial and (iii) industrial sectors. At the country level, GPAs are found to drive a significant positive sentiment effect in the following European countries: Switzerland, Spain, UK, Ireland and Italy. Sector- and country-level analyses confirm the presence of larger benefits from GPAs among more sustainable portfolios.

GOBLIN version 1.0: a land balance model to identify national agriculture and land use pathways to climate neutrality via backcasting

Abstract. The Paris Agreement commits 197 countries to achieve climate stabilisation at a global average surface temperature less than 2 ∘C above pre-industrial times using nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to demonstrate progress. Numerous industrialised economies have targets to achieve territorial climate neutrality by 2050, primarily in the form of “net zero” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, particular uncertainty remains over the role of countries' agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sectors for reasons including the potential trade-offs between GHG mitigation and food security, a non-zero emission target for methane as a short-lived GHG, and the requirement for AFOLU to act as a net sink to offset residual emissions from other sectors. These issues are represented at a coarse level in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that indicate the role of AFOLU in global pathways towards climate stabilisation. However, there is an urgent need to determine appropriate AFOLU management strategies at a national level within NDCs. Here, we present a new model designed to evaluate detailed AFOLU scenarios at national scale using the example of Ireland, where approximately 40 % of national GHG emissions originate from AFOLU. GOBLIN (General Overview for a Backcasting approach of Livestock INtensification) is designed to run randomised scenarios of agricultural activities and land use combinations within biophysical constraints (e.g. available land area, livestock productivities, fertiliser-driven grass yields, and forest growth rates). Using AFOLU emission factors from national GHG inventory reporting, GOBLIN calculates annual GHG emissions out to the selected target year for each scenario (2050 in this case). The long-term dynamics of forestry are represented up to 2120 so that scenarios can also be evaluated against the Paris Agreement commitment to achieve a balance between emissions and removals over the second half of the 21st century. Filtering randomised scenarios according to compliance with specific biophysical definitions (GHG time series) of climate neutrality will provide scientific boundaries for appropriate long-term actions within NDCs. We outline the rationale and methodology behind the development of GOBLIN, with an emphasis on biophysical linkages across food production, GHG emissions, and carbon sinks at a national level. We then demonstrate how GOBLIN can be applied to evaluate different scenarios in relation to a few possible simple definitions of “climate neutrality”, discussing opportunities and limitations.

Valuing the contribution of blue carbon to small island developing states' climate change commitments and Covid-19 recovery

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face complex socio-economic and environmental threats, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change. Blue Carbon (BC) ecosystems (mangrove forests, tidal marshes, and seagrass meadows) provide climate regulation services by sequestering and storing carbon, presenting an opportunity for SIDS to address climate change and implement Paris Agreement commitments in their Covid-19 recovery. BC habitat decline not only reduces carbon sequestration benefits provided, but can also result in sediment disturbance and the release of previously stored carbon back into the atmosphere. In this work, a scenario analysis informed by a stakeholder workshop and scientific and socio-economic expectations is used to assess the economic importance of Grenada’s BC (mangroves and seagrasses) over the next 10, 25 and 50 years. Our findings indicate that sequestration benefits are severely diminished under Business-as-Usual habitat loss, but still marginally outweigh losses from carbon emissions, with overall welfare gains of US$0.5–1.9 million over 50 years. To stimulate economic recovery post-pandemic, stakeholders anticipated a realistic scenario of increased habitat decline resulting in overall losses of US$5.4–19.4 million in the next 50 years. However, if ecosystems are maintained, overall carbon benefits could reach US$10.7 million, while a 20% increase in mangroves over the next 25 years provides benefits reaching US$11.1 million between 2020 and 2070. These results demonstrate a significant increase in value when BC ecosystems are maintained and not disturbed, preventing the release of previously stored carbon and enhancing sequestration capacity. Restoration benefits are marginal, compared to conservation, supporting claims that conservation is more cost effective.

Addressing uncertainty and bias in land use, land use change, and forestry greenhouse gas inventories

National greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) will play an increasingly important role in tracking country progress against United Nations (UN) Paris Agreement commitments. Yet uncertainty in land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) NGHGHI estimates may undermine international confidence in emission reduction claims, particularly for countries that expect forests and agriculture to contribute large near-term GHG reductions. In this paper, we propose an analytical framework for implementing the uncertainty provisions of the UN Paris Agreement Enhanced Transparency Framework, with a view to identifying the largest sources of LULUCF NGHGI uncertainty and prioritizing methodological improvements. Using the USA as a case study, we identify and attribute uncertainty across all US NGHGI LULUCF “uncertainty elements” (inputs, parameters, models, and instances of plot-based sampling) and provide GHG flux estimates for omitted inventory categories. The largest sources of uncertainty are distributed across LULUCF inventory categories, underlining the importance of sector-wide analysis: forestry (tree biomass sampling error; tree volume and specific gravity allometric parameters; soil carbon model), cropland and grassland (DayCent model structure and inputs), and settlement (urban tree gross to net carbon sequestration ratio) elements contribute over 90% of uncertainty. Net emissions of 123 MMT CO2e could be omitted from the US NGHGI, including Alaskan grassland and wetland soil carbon stock change (90.4 MMT CO2), urban mineral soil carbon stock change (34.7 MMT CO2), and federal cropland and grassland N2O (21.8 MMT CO2e). We explain how these findings and other ongoing research can support improved LULUCF monitoring and transparency.

Measuring the long run technical efficiency of offshore wind farms

Offshore wind energy has emerged as an attractive alternative to conventional resources to meet the Paris agreement commitment. The present paper studies the long run capacity of offshore wind farms to transform kinetic energy into electricity. We start estimating the technical efficiency of twenty-six farms over a thirteen years interval using a fully parametric and a semiparametric stochastic frontier model. The latter allows the factors of production to impact non-linearly on the quantity of electricity produced, those reducing the possibility of committing a functional misspecification error. Our results suggest that fully parametric specifications fails to identify the non-linear effect of labour cost on volumes of electricity produced. Then, we regress the estimated technical efficiency over the farm age, while controlling for the technological change of the wind power industry, to single out the resilience of the technical efficiency to aging. According to our calculations, technical efficiency ranges from 83% to 98% and it does not decline with age. This result shades light on the capacity of offshore wind farms to be a long term solution of the energy transition.

Tack to the future: is wind propulsion an ecomodernist or degrowth way to decarbonise maritime cargo transport?

ABSTRACT This article explores the political economy of the re-uptake of wind propulsion for maritime cargo transport so as to shift this sector onto a decarbonization pathway. It focuses primarily on how wind propulsion technologies, both old and new, aim to close the ‘emissions gap’ between projected emissions and the target to reduce them, as set by the International Maritime Organization in 2018. In doing so, it questions whether and how wind propulsion technologies could help attain ‘absolute decoupling’ of GHG emissions from industry growth, resulting from growing demand for shipping. It concludes that wind propulsion can help decarbonize the industry. But there is lack of certainty regarding the possibility to (a) deploy zero-emission technology at scale and (b) the extent to which reducing demand for shipping activity may suffice to attain full decarbonization. This article argues that a combination of both technological innovation and reduced demand is crucial to developing a decarbonization pathway for the shipping industry to meet Paris Agreement commitments at scale and in time. Key policy insights Wind propulsion can contribute to a decarbonization pathway for the shipping industry This technology can be pursued from both ‘ecomodernist’ and ‘degrowth’ perspectives It is unlikely that either technological innovation or reduced demand alone will bring down shipping emissions to net-zero quickly enough, thus a combination of both may need to be considered to meet emissions reductions targets

Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets

ABSTRACT Curbing GHG emissions while preserving economic growth is one of the main challenges that developing countries are facing to meet the Paris Agreement commitments. Brazil's NDC target aims to reduce economy-wide absolute levels of GHG emissions by 37% in 2025 and 43% in 2030, compared to 2005 emissions. In this paper, we compare command-and-control and carbon pricing policies to induce the Brazilian economy to meet its NDC targets. We focus on analysing synergies and trade-offs in macroeconomic and social development, captured by economic growth and income distribution while reducing GHG emissions. By integrating a series of sectoral models and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we develop and run different policy scenarios that simulate a set of carbon pricing schemes in Brazil. Our analysis shows that NDC implementation in Brazil under carbon pricing policies allows the country to meet its targets and improve economic and social indicators compared to a command-and-control policy. With about the same GHG emissions up to 2030, important macroeconomic and social co-benefits can be achieved under a carbon pricing policy in Brazil, allowing for reduced welfare losses against business-as-usual trends. Key policy insights: Carbon pricing policies are more cost-effective to meet NDC targets in Brazil up to 2030, resulting in higher GDP and household income, in comparison to other individual policy instruments, including command-and-control and subsidies to investments. A carbon price of about 10 USD/tCO2e, combined importantly with deforestation rates under control, would allow Brazil to meet its NDC targets. Recycling carbon pricing revenues can help soften the burden on the labour market and protect low-income households from welfare losses.

Quantification of the carbon intensity of electricity produced and used in Europe

The EU has a comprehensive legislation to facilitate the energy transition towards a low carbon energy system and achieve the EU’s Paris Agreement commitments for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The European Green Deal is an integral part of the EU strategy for a sustainable and climate neutral economy by 2050. The decarbonisation of the power generation is essential to achieve the goal of decarbonising the energy and transport sectors. This paper presents a study conducted to quantify the carbon emissions associated to the production of electricity produced and used in European countries, based on a comprehensive methodology developed for this purpose. A spreadsheet model has been developed that considers the various sources for electricity generation, the type of plants, conversion efficiencies, upstream emissions and emissions from power plant construction, as well as the electricity trade. The results show the greenhouse gas emissions from the production and use of electricity in all European countries, revealing significant variations between countries. The carbon intensity of electricity shows a clear reduction trend since 1990, for most of the European countries. In the European Union, carbon intensity of electricity used at low voltage degreased from 641 gCO2eq/kWh in 1990 to 334 gCO2eq/kWh in 2019, and this trend is expected to continue in the coming years.

Getting Financial Markets to Work for Climate Finance

Financing the Paris Agreement commitments would require trillions of dollars per year, and most of that would need to come from private sources. Despite huge potential, climate finance flows remain constrained by many barriers, key among them the lack of financial viability of climate-focused projects. Despite several initiatives and innovative financing solutions to incentivize private finance—such as blended finance to leverage public finance and risk mitigation solutions to enable commercial climate investments—private investments in green projects are limited. To a large extent, the regulated financial system of banking and capital markets and the extant regulations do not align well with the goals of climate finance. A major shift is required in the existing trajectory of the current targets for climate-focused investments to be met, both by lending institutions and capital markets. One approach to addressing the concern about adequate finance for green projects focuses on factoring climate risks into investment and lending decisions (that is, into pricing and capital allocation) through banking regulation. These alternatives are discussed in this article. Another concern, the risk associated with the greening financial markets themselves, could be countered by offering a risk subsidy for banks and financial institutions that finance climate investments; this strategy would include subsidizing the cost of financing green projects through a reduction in the risk premium or capital charges of the project. Risks could be priced by using the mechanism of trading and pricing carbon emissions, and resources from a carbon tax also could be allocated to pay for the subsidy. This article discusses a structure to make a blended finance option effective. Both of these approaches—enabling regulations and blended finance to lower the cost of capital—can unlock substantial financing opportunities for climate projects. Institutional commitment is paramount to facilitate both the financing of green projects and the greening of the financial sector. <b>TOPICS:</b>ESG investing, real assets/alternative investments/private equity, risk management, legal/regulatory/public policy <b>Key Findings</b> ▪ A major shift is required in the extant regulated financial system if the current targets for climate focused investments are to be met. ▪ For greening of the financial sector, climate risks need to be factored in for pricing and capital allocation through banking regulations. ▪ A blended option, where risks are priced using carbon markets and resources from a carbon tax are used to pay for the subsidy, is proposed.

Optimal electricity supply system under Iranian framework limitations to meet its emission pledge under the Paris climate agreement

As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, Iran pledged to decrease 4 percent of its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2020 to 2030. About 29% of total emission in Iran belongs to electricity supply while energy consumption in other sectors (transport, household, and industry) have a lower share in CO2 emission. The main concern here is finding the optimal mix of power plants in the electricity supply system that should be deployed to meet Iran’s mentioned respective targets. So, we developed a non-linear mathematical programming model for Iran’s electricity system to address this concern. Results show that a 10-20% diffusion of renewable energy and converting gas turbine power plants to gas combined cycle technology with 5% annual rate can satisfy Iran’s emissions pledge under the Paris Climate Accord. Finally, this model has been run for years between 2017-2030. Four scenarios have also been prepared based on different Iranian Five-Year Development Plans.