Pakistan Economic Corridor Research Articles

Land Use Changes and Future Land Use Scenario Simulations of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative, is of great significance for the promotion of sustainable development in the region through the study of land use change and the simulation of future multi-scenarios. Based on the multi-period land use data of the CPEC, this study firstly analyzed the spatial and temporal land use changes in the CPEC from 2000 to 2020 by using GIS technology, and, secondly, simulated the land use patterns of the CPEC under four scenarios, namely, natural development, investment priority, ecological protection, and harmonious development, in 2040 by using the Markov-FLUS model with comprehensive consideration of natural, socio-economic, and other driving factors. The results show the following: (1) The urban land, forest land, and grassland in the CPEC from 2000 to 2020 show an increasing trend, while the farmland, unutilized land, and water area categories show a decreasing trend. In terms of land use transfer changes, the most frequently transferred out is the conversion of unutilized land to grassland. (2) The FLUS model has high accuracy in simulating the land use pattern of the CPEC, and its applicability in the CPEC area is strong and can be used to simulate the future land use pattern of the CPEC. (3) Among the four different land use scenarios, the harmonious development scenario strikes a better balance between infrastructure construction, economic development, and ecological protection, and can provide a scientific basis for future land management in the CPEC, in order to highlight the importance of promoting economic growth and ecological protection and ultimately realize sustainable development.

China–Pakistan Economic Corridor and Its Impact on India

China–Pakistan Economic Corridor and Its Impact on India

A multi-sensor drought index for improved agricultural drought monitoring and risk assessment in the heterogeneous landscapes of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

Droughts cause significant economic damage worldwide. Evaluating their impacts on crop yield and water resources can help mitigate these losses. Using single variables such as precipitation, temperature, the soil moisture condition index (SMCI) and the vegetation condition index (VCI) to estimate drought impacts does not provide sufficient information on these complex conditions. Therefore, this study uses station-based and remote-sensing-based data to develop new composite drought indexes (CDIs), including the principal component analysis drought index (PSDI) and the gradient boosting method drought index (GBMDI). The first dataset includes historical observations of the standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (SC-PDSI) at the 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month timescales. The second dataset consists of remote-sensing-based data including the VCI, SMCI, temperature condition index (TCI), and precipitation condition index (PCI). We validated the results of PSDI and GBMDI by comparing them with historical drought events, in-situ drought indices, and annual winter wheat crop yield data from 2003 to 2022 using a regression model. Our temporal analysis revealed extreme to severe drought events during1990s and 2010s. GBMDI typically aligned with actual drought events and exhibited stronger correlations with in-situ drought indices than PSDI. We observed that drought intensity in winter were more severe than in summer. GBMDI was the most effective method, followed by PSDI, for assessing drought impacts on winter wheat yields. Thus, the proposed integrated monitoring framework and indexes offered a valuable and innovative approach to addressing the complexities of agricultural drought, particularly in evaluating its effects.

Indo-Pakistan rivalry and integrated ring balancing: prospects and challenges to regional stability in South Asia

ABSTRACT Pakistan's security landscape faces unprecedented challenges due to India's burgeoning power and its strategic alignment with the United States. This study proposes an innovative ‘Integrated Ring Balancing’ framework to navigate this complex geopolitical environment. The framework operates across three tiers: Tier 1: Direct engagement with immediate neighbors – India, Iran, China, and Afghanistan. Tier 2: Building robust linkages with the neighbors of Pakistan's Tier 1 partners, encompassing South Asia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Tier 3: Leveraging major powers – China, Russia, and the United States – through Tier 1 and 2 partnerships. This multi-layered approach aims to achieve two key objectives: (1) Neutralize India's US-backed advantage: Engaging China and Russia can influence Tier 2 states, particularly in Central Asia, to rebalance their regional positioning towards Pakistan. (2) Develop a collective defense system: Converging geo-economic interests via initiatives like the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can foster a regional security ring around Pakistan. By strategically engaging across these tiers, Pakistan can navigate the complex power dynamics in South Asia, bolster its security, and ultimately safeguard its national interests in the face of a strengthened India.

Known and Unknown Environmental Impacts Related to Climate Changes in Pakistan: An Under-Recognized Risk to Local Communities

This study prioritized initiatives within the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), foreign funding, and the associated environmental and national issues. Additionally, it analyzed these factors’ effects on improving infrastructure, commerce, and economic cooperation between China and Pakistan. Besides that, it also studies the current climatic, economic, and political challenges, mainly focused on water and agriculture issues. Climate, economic, and political issues affect the environment. These concerns deserve global attention. Pakistan mainly relies on agriculture, and its water scarcity predisposes it to economic losses, urbanization, and many socioeconomic problems. Climate change and the current flood have devastated the agriculture sector. Water scarcity affects agriculture too and significantly impacts the economy and food resources. The nation has not previously experienced such a profoundly distressing epoch. Pakistan has faced several environmental, economic, and political challenges; specifically, the fields of agriculture and water present notable apprehensions. Unfavorable climatic conditions impede the attainment of sustainable agriculture in Pakistan. Considering the strong reliance of agriculture on water resources, it is crucial to acknowledge that industrialization has resulted in substantial water contamination due to the presence of microplastics and heavy metals. Moreover, the South Asian region experiences a significant scarcity of water resources. Besides that, CPEC is the solution for the financial issues, but it is a big challenge for environmental degradation in the current stage, especially since foreign funding is a key challenge for increasing corruption and bringing more burden on the economy. Unfortunately, foreign funding is not good for Pakistan. To ensure safety, security, and sustainability, CPEC projects should follow environmental regulations. This study provides a new list of CPEC initiative priority tasks that more openly disrupt the initiative, serve the whole project, and give appropriate recommendations for future research and policy-making.

Machine Learning-Driven Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in the Himalayan China–Pakistan Economic Corridor Region

The reliability of data-driven approaches in generating landslide susceptibility maps depends on data quality, analytical method selection, and sampling techniques. Selecting optimal datasets and determining the most effective analytical methods pose significant challenges. This study assesses the performance of seven machine learning classifiers in the Himalayan region of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, utilizing statistical techniques and validation metrics. Thirteen geo-environmental variables were analyzed, including topographic (8), land cover (1), hydrological (1), geological (2), and meteorological (1) factors. These variables were evaluated for multicollinearity, feature importance, and their influence on landslide incidences. Our findings indicate that Support Vector Machines and Logistic Regression were highly effective, particularly near fault zones and roads, due to their effectiveness in handling complex, non-linear terrain interactions. Conversely, Random Forest and Logistic Regression demonstrated variability in their results. Each model distinctly identified landslide susceptibility zones ranging from very low to very high risk. Significant conditioning variables such as elevation, rainfall, lithology, slope, and land use were identified, reflecting the unique geomorphological conditions of the Himalayas. Further analysis using the Variance Inflation Factor and Pearson correlation coefficient showed minimal multicollinearity among the variables. Moreover, evaluations of Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC) values confirmed the strong predictive capabilities of the models, with the Random Forest Classifier performing exceptionally well, achieving an AUC of 0.96 and an F-Score of 0.86. This study shows the importance of model selection based on dataset characteristics to enhance decision-making and strategy effectiveness.

MODERNISING PAKISTAN’S SHIPPING REGULATIONS AND TRADE FACILITATION AUTHORITIES UNDER CONVENTION ON THE FACILITATION OF INTERNATIONAL MARITIME TRAFFIC 1965

A developing maritime economy like Pakistan can greatly benefit from the comprehensive framework of standards, guidelines, and recommended practices provided by the modern and comprehensive provisions of the Convention on the Facilitation of International Maritime Traffic 1965 (FALC). This study’s objective is to analyse the FALC’s legal provisions and Pakistan's domestic maritime law in relation to ship and port juncture activities in order to make recommendations for updating the country's current statutory rules and regulations in line with international standards, conventions and practices. According to the study, the FALC has significantly facilitated international maritime traffic through the harmonisation and standardisation of its port and shipping procedures. Following the FALC's and the facilitation committee's approved guidelines will improve Pakistan's overall competitive standing as an emerging regional shipping hub, especially under the long term plan for China Pakistan Economic Corridor. Furthermore, it will also allow Pakistan to sustainably transform into a significant maritime transit trade centre in the Western Indian Ocean Region.

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)- Governance Encounters and Current Advances

China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)- Governance Encounters and Current Advances

An integrated approach to strengthening maritime security: a case study of Gwadar Port of Pakistan

Gwadar Port is a vital component of Pakistan’s development and an essential element in the Belt and Road Initiative and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor. Its completion holds the promise of economic growth for Baluchistan and Pakistan and provides a crucial trade route for land-locked Central Asian nations. Gwadar Port faces many significant challenges related to security due to the region’s poverty, instability, and particularly its separatist activities. To address this, a study has been conducted to determine how to improve maritime security at Gwadar Port. The study uses a literature review, comparative analysis, and field research to examine the factors that affect port security. Terrorist acts, particularly those planned by organizations such as the Baluchistan People’s Liberation Army, pose the greatest security risks. Additionally, the unique management approach of Gwadar Port presents other security challenges. This study on the experience of port management in China and Pakistan offers strategies for enhancing security management in Gwadar Port. These strategies include improved coordination between entities, increased security measures, and strengthened cooperation with the Chinese stakeholders engaged in port projects. Prioritizing the development of local communities and education is crucial to ensure the well-being of both port workers and the surrounding population. The conclusion stresses the significance of international cooperation, the sharing of information, and improved foresight to strengthen the security framework of Gwadar Port. Integrating best practices and refining approaches will improve safety management, safeguard the facilities, and foster their sustainable growth.

Examining the Impact of Pakistan-China Energy Collaborations on Poverty Reduction in Pakistan

The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a pivotal bilateral initiative aimed at alleviating poverty in Pakistan by enhancing its energy infrastructure. This project focuses on developing crucial energy resources through the construction of power plants and the expansion of transmission networks, ensuring stable, affordable, and sustainable energy supply nationwide. This paper investigates CPEC's role in diversifying Pakistan's energy mix, integrating both conventional and renewable sources such as hydroelectric, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear power. This diversification aims to decrease Pakistan’s dependence on costly energy imports from the Gulf States, thereby improving energy security and promoting economic independence, essential for regional poverty alleviation. Utilizing qualitative research methodologies, this study examines the extensive social and economic impacts of these energy developments. By synthesizing various secondary data sources and applying thematic analysis, the research evaluates how enhanced energy security through CPEC can drive socio-economic progress and reduce poverty in Pakistan. The study offers valuable insights into energy geopolitics and economic development strategies, underscoring the significance of international energy partnerships like CPEC in transforming energy infrastructures and fostering economic growth in developing nations. Through detailed analysis, the paper highlights CPEC as a critical economic lifeline, essential for boosting Pakistan's energy self-sufficiency and accelerating economic growth. Consequently, CPEC emerges as a vital element in the broader strategy for poverty mitigation in Pakistan, emphasizing its importance in sustainable development and international economic cooperation.

Historical Analysis of Gilgit Baltistan and Evaluation of Its Ethnic Diversity

Gilgit Baltistan is located at the junction of central and South Asia, at the essence of three mighty mountain ranges: the Hindukush, the Himalaya, and the Karakorum, with a wholesome number of glaciers and a worthful quantity of mighty hills. Besides the ancient language, Burushaski is one aspect of cultural variation. The glimpses of historical monuments, multiple ruins of archeological sites, and Buddhist relics narrate the splendid past of this region, which works multidimensionally in projecting the beauty of this land, promoting tourism, exploring the cultural diversity, encouraging the socio-economic status and infrastructure development. The land of Gilgit Baltistan is unique and has geographical, geological, racial, linguistic, and cultural diversity. These artistic, social, ethnic, and linguistic aspects make the foundation of regional identity, which is used in local and regional politics and later emerges in large-scale conflicts and disputes. This study explores the historical prospects of Gilgit Baltistan in a chronological manner in addition to its contemporary geostrategic significance. In the current scenario, the historical analysis of Gilgit Baltistan is contributing more after the advent of the Pakistan Economic Corridor, which refers to the increasing socio-economic development and decreasing cultural conflict.

Future Prospects and Scope of China Pakistan Economic Corridor in Modern Maritime Silk Road

The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) stands as a master project within the broader framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), envisioning connectivity and economic cooperation across the Eurasian landmass. With a focus on the maritime dimension, this study explores the future prospects and scope of CPEC within the context of the Modern Maritime Silk Road (MSR). By examining key infrastructure projects, policy frameworks, and geopolitical dynamics, it assesses the potential impacts and opportunities arising from enhanced maritime connectivity between China and Pakistan. The analysis begins by demarcation the strategic importance of maritime routes in economic development and facilitating trade, mainly in the framework of global maritime trade patterns. Additionally, the study explores the consequences of CPEC for regional dynamics, mainly in the Indian Ocean region, where geopolitical competition and maritime security concerns intersect. It examines the potential for transshipment opportunities, economic integration and the growth of regional supply chains helped by CPEC-linked maritime infrastructure.

Firm Attributes and Government External Debt as Determinants of Corporate Short Debt Maturity in a Post-CPEC Scenario

Abstract The current study investigates the influence of firm attributes and government external debt upon the short debt maturity of non-financial firms listed at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in a post-CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) scenario. By using firm-level panel data, estimations are made through the random effect model with robust standard errors at the level and with lagged independent variables. We dealt endogeneity concerns by employing the system-GMM approach to the complete data sample of 331 firms over a period ranging from 2013 to 2017 and also the post CPEC period ranging from 2015 to 2017. The risk and asset tangibility are strong negative predictors of short debt maturity in Pakistani listed firms. The external debt had a positive and significant role in defining short debt maturity. These results were consistent for both the entire data period and the post CPEC period.

Changes in Surface and Terrestrial Waters in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor Due to Climate Change and Human Activities

Changes in Surface and Terrestrial Waters in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor Due to Climate Change and Human Activities

Colonial laws, postcolonial infrastructures: Land acquisition, urban informality, and politics of infrastructural development in Pakistan

This article traces (dis)continuities in colonial logics across disjunctures of decolonisation and democratisation through a large infrastructure project in contemporary Lahore, Pakistan. Analysing Lahore’s Orange Line Metro Train, a project constructed under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the article shows how colonial extractive and racial logics can limit the redistributive potential of typically inclusive infrastructures like mass transit by continuing to shape the conditions of their development and (re)producing precarious configurations of citizenship in the postcolony. It finds that Pakistan’s colonial-era land acquisition law erased a range of land relations and rights from recognition and thus compensation by the state. In an instance of informal policy making, the state eventually created an ad hoc ‘grant-in-aid’ scheme to compensate landowners in informal settlements. However, the scheme continued the property centric politics of recognition embedded in the expropriation law by only compensating people with long-term land claims. The public script of the scheme invoked welfare obligations of the state but structured these through moral-legal norms of property. The postcolonial state thus bypassed the transition from colonial subjects to citizens and instead repositioned people as humanitarian subjects. The article thus highlights the contradictions of developing subsidized public infrastructure in postcolonial cities, where construction becomes another conduit of imposing land commodification and disciplining pro-poor self-built neighbourhoods that have escaped the rigidity of private property.

The Politics of Land and Belonging in North Pakistan

Pakistan’s mountainous north borders China. Deepening bilateral ties, together with increasing investments from within Pakistan, have amplified local anxiety over loss of control over resources. A complicated history left the area with multiple land tenure systems. Much of this region, today known as Gilgit-Baltistan, is disputed with India. Consequently, it has a constitutionally liminal status and its people do not enjoy equal citizenship rights. With the construction of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, a major part of the global Belt and Road Initiative, Chinese influence has been entangled in local histories and political economies.

Geopolitics of Maritime Security in the Indian Ocean: Sino-Indian rivalry and Implications on Pakistan

Maritime sector is considered to be one of the most neglected sector of Pakistan. Contemporary world politics is now based on economy. History tells us those states that were fully aware of strengthening their maritime sector, they ruled the world. Competition over a sea lines of communications in Indian ocean region is increasing day by day.US tilt towards India became a driving force to strengthen collaboration between China and Pakistan. China Pakistan Economic Corridor is one of the significant example of strong ties between two states. China wants to penetrate in middle east along with central Asian states. Recent peace deal media by China with Iran and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is its significant example. Development of Pakistani Gwadar port is one of the Chinese driving force to execute Chinese presence in the Indian ocean region. On the other hand, US wants to contain China via India. US is reluctant to reduce its presence in the region. 21st century belongs to trade and investment. This paper aims to highlight the geopolitical importance of trade related activities via sea lines of communications. Security of the sea routes along with its geopolitical significance in this security led architecture of the world is also discussed in the paper.

Fostering entrepreneurship and development in rural mountainous regions: the role of SEZs and local economic dynamics in Gilgit-Baltistan

PurposeThis study aims to examine the perceptions and opinions of relevant stakeholders regarding entrepreneurship opportunities and growth in the Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) province of Pakistan. Specifically, it focuses on the role of special economic zones (SEZs), such as Maqpondass SEZ and the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), in fostering nascent entrepreneurship (NE) and promoting regional development.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs ordered logistic regression to estimate the relationship between various independent variables and nascent entrepreneurship (NE). The independent variables include awareness of CPEC (AAC), awareness of Maqpondass SEZ (AAMEZ), SEZ incentives (SEZInc), regional market competitiveness (RMC), loan availability (LA) and education and experience (EE).FindingsThe findings indicate a robust positive relationship between SEZ-based industries and the growth of local small businesses and enterprises in Gilgit-Baltistan. Furthermore, the study suggests that government incentives, access to finance, skill development, relevant knowledge, and connections with local businesses facilitate the establishment of new ventures.Practical implicationsThe study underscores the importance of focusing on human capital development, providing financial assistance, and creating incentives for adopting advanced technology to foster the growth of local businesses in Gilgit-Baltistan through SEZs. It emphasizes the need for policymakers and stakeholders to prioritize initiatives that support entrepreneurship and innovation in the region.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature by providing novel insights into the perceptions of entrepreneurship development in Gilgit-Baltistan, particularly concerning the influence of natural resources and SEZs. It fills a gap in the research by offering valuable implications for policymakers, researchers, and practitioners seeking to promote sustainable economic development in the region.

Exploring the both-and success paradox in mega construction projects: multi-dimensional assessments of paradoxical leadership, project agility and megaproject success

PurposeOrganizations are full of contradictions and leadership dilemmas. Managers often face challenges such as selecting between two contradicting options such that which one is more important can hardly be judged. To manage contradicting dynamics, today’s managers can adopt the paradoxical leadership approach. We build a theoretical model to investigate the influence of paradoxical leadership on multi-dimensional project agility (proactivity, adaptability, and resilience), and multi-dimensional project success (management, investment, and ownership success).Design/methodology/approachDrawing on survey-based data from the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) megaproject (N = 209), we performed covariance-based structural equation modeling to test the conceptual model.FindingsThe findings show that (1) paradoxical leadership has a significant positive impact on megaproject success, (2) paradoxical leadership has a significant positive influence on project agility, (3) project agility has a significant positive effect on megaproject success, and (4) project agility has a significant effect that mediates the link between paradoxical leadership and megaproject success. This research provides a theoretical and practical comprehension of paradoxical leadership with a new perspective on megaprojects.Originality/valueThis study provides an extension of the existing studies on paradoxical leadership and identifies the role of contradicting dynamics and their impact on multiple facets of megaproject success. It not only clarifies the relationship between paradoxical leadership and megaproject success, but also identifies the mediating role of project agility that can play an effective role in mobilizing success in megaprojects.

Prospective Analysis of Economic and Social Development Through Special Economic Zones (SEZs): Pakistan a Case in Point

This paper seeks to link the concept of SEZs with social developments in developing countries like Pakistan. In the larger context of human developments, social and general wellbeing of the people is closely linked with the infrastructural enhancement, overall employment of human resource and economic growth in a country. Creation of SEZs is one of the mechanisms to enhance human hands’ engagement. SEZs create those environments which are growth centric in the most comprehensive manner. In the recent history of human developments, it has worked very well in China which raised living standards of the people in record times. The concept of SEZs is based on business facilitation at one place with minimum cost; yet attaining optimum proficiency. The paper is based on secondary data from the official circles of Pakistan and China as well as the literature review. The study follows a qualitative analysis of secondary data as available in publications and official websites. Since Pakistan was already part of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the idea of establishing CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) prompted to develop SEZs in synchronicity for boosting the economic growth. The study also allows comparative views of SEZs especially in developing countries to draw relevance to those envisaged in Pakistan. In synch with the developments centered around CPEC; in Pakistan, the SEZs have started coming on grounds in a phased process. The study concludes with outcomes like creating similar conditions as those of Chinese to have compatible and comparable success standards in Pakistan.