The productivity of semi-arid, cereal-based agroecosystems is inherently limited by water and nutrient availability, with water limitations expected to be exacerbated by climate change. While previous studies have identified agronomic, economic, and environmental benefits of rotating oilseed, pulse, and cover crops with cereals for mitigating the effects of increasing temperatures and water shortages, the successful integration of alternative crops into cereal based systems is contingent upon economic, social, and policy conditions. This paper analyses the historical spatial and temporal trends in crop diversification in three distinct cropping regions, including the Canadian prairies, Australian wheat belt, and the inland Pacific Northwest USA (iPNW). The first objective was to identify key sociological, economic, and policy drivers that corresponded with historical crop intensification and diversification in Canada and Australia over the last 50 years. The second objective was to identify key economic, policy, and social constraints that have historically limited intensification and diversification in the iPNW, a cereal-dominated region. In Canada and Australia, public policy played a critical role in the adoption of alternative crops through investments in research and boundary-spanning agencies, as well as extension and grower-led efforts. Policies also provided incentives for market development and risk management strategies. Grower perceptions of risk, the ability to utilize existing resources and knowledge, and access to markets were important social considerations for crop diversification. Given the competitiveness of wheat in the iPNW, the largest opportunities for diversification in the iPNW would be provided by (1) the adoption of a crop rotation approach to the economics that capture relative commodity prices, yield stability, and the effects of alternative crops on subsequent wheat performance, (2) the transition away from coupled crop insurance to income-supported, whole farm risk management, and (3) the establishment of multi-commodity groups that replace single crop commodity commissions in the interest of market-driven crop diversification.
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