Overlapping Generations Model Research Articles

Local government land monopoly in China: the influence of residential land price on supply

ABSTRACT China’s current land system allows local governments to monopolize land supply, and such monopolist power induces local governments to distort the residential land supply in line with their own interests. This paper uses an overlapping generation model to depict the profit maximization behavior of local governments. The theoretical model suggests that local governments in cities with strong economic conditions would face a lower magnitude of price elasticity of demand and would choose a higher residential land price corresponding to a lower residential land supply to achieve profit maximization. To empirically evaluate the theoretical model, the paper adopts Instrument Variable (IV) estimates and investigates data collected from 142 prefecture-level cities between 2010 and 2020. It suggests there is a negative causal relationship between residential land prices and per capita residential land, thus validating the theoretical model that local governments prioritize profit maximization over meeting the local population’s housing demands.

Partially funded social security and growth

AbstractThis paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and the degree of fundedness of a social security system in an overlapping generations model with family altruism. It is shown that the relationship between the degree of fundedness and economic growth is inverted U‐shaped so that a gradual increase in funding may harm growth if bequests are not operative within the family. Our findings put some caution on the conventional view that a higher degree of funded social security is beneficial for growth.

Effects of wariness on economic growth in overlapping generations models

We introduce the notion of wariness, defined as a concern for the lowest lifetime utility, in overlapping generations models and explore its effects on economic growth. In an exogenous growth model, under standard assumptions, we prove that the capital stock converges to a steady state. We then explore conditions under which this steady state is increasing (or decreasing) in the wariness level. We also provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the dynamic efficiency of the intertemporal equilibrium. In endogenous growth models (à la Romer (1986) or à la Barro (1990)), we show that the growth rate of capital stock per capita in the economy with wariness is lower (higher, respectively) than that in the economy without wariness if and only if the capital return is high (low, respectively).

Welfare and economic implications of universal child benefits

Universal child benefits are an important component of the social protection systems in many developed economies, particularly in Europe. When evaluating their impact, most studies tend to focus primarily on the empirical evidence and short-term effects. However, given their large-scale implementation, such programs can have sizable general equilibrium effects. The aim of this paper is to study the long-run implications of universal child benefits within a theoretical framework that can capture the complexities of household decisions regarding consumption, labor participation, and the timing of children. To this end, I develop an overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic earnings risk, infertility shocks, and endogenous temporal fertility. According to the model simulations, universal child benefits lead to a reduction in the spacing between children and, on average, lower maternal age at childbirth for all births. This, in turn, alleviates some of the negative aggregate effects typically associated with redistributive policies, but has a detrimental impact on the average quality of children. Finally, universal child benefits increase ex-ante welfare by 0.42% of lifetime adult consumption, significantly outperforming broad-based transfer policies not tied to the number of children.

Self-benefits, fiscal risk, and political support for the public healthcare system

The rapid aging of the population has become increasingly challenging for public healthcare systems. To ensure sustainability, governments must persuade their citizens to accept a larger burden, which is a difficult task. This study explored whether informing individuals of self-benefits from the healthcare system could be a solution. We first constructed a two-period overlapping generations model and hypothesized that doing so could facilitate political support for larger healthcare insurance contributions; however, this effect is reduced when people are concerned about fiscal sustainability due to a declining fertility rate. To test these hypotheses, we conducted an online survey experiment in Japan, in which the treatment group was informed of the benefits from the public healthcare system. We found that the treatment had no effect on average but augmented support for a larger burden among respondents who were unaware of fiscal unsustainability. Furthermore, this positive effect on optimistic respondents reduced once they were informed of the fiscal risks. Moreover, we analyzed the heterogeneity of the treatment effects depending on time and risk preferences.

Can today’s and tomorrow’s world uniformly gain from carbon taxation?

Climate change will impact current and future generations in different regions very differently. This paper develops the first large-scale, annually calibrated, multi-region, overlapping generations model of climate change and carbon policy. It features region-specific temperature and damage functions with the phased impact of emissions on global and regional temperature calibrated to the latest scientific evidence. Absent policy, climate change may, under high-damage scenarios, dramatically reduce GDP in most regions, with India, Brazil, and the South Asian Pacific suffering long-term catastrophic damages. Carbon taxation, coupled with region- and generation-specific transfers, can both correct the carbon externality and raise the welfare of all current and future agents across all regions by 4.3 percent. The impact on the use and duration of fossil fuels is dramatic as is the reduction in the path of global emissions. However, achieving completely uniform welfare gains leaves future generations in particular regions facing exceptionally high compensatory payments. Fortunately, a carbon tax-cum redistribution policy that limits this burden for any generation in any region to less than 10 percent, measured on a consumption-equivalent basis, can deliver a 4.0 percent or higher welfare gain for all peoplekind — present and future. However, carbon taxes set through time, at carbon’s marginal social cost, do far too little to mitigate climate change unless all major emitters, particularly China, adopt them and do so immediately.

PENSIONS, INCOME TAXES, AND HOMEOWNERSHIP: A CROSS‐COUNTRY ANALYSIS

AbstractThe article studies the role of pensions and income taxes in determining homeownership. We develop a stochastic, overlapping generations model with tenure choice and heterogenous skill types calibrated to Germany. Then, we simulate alternative income tax and pension policy structures from the United States and Australia, since these developed nations have similar incomes per capita, but highly different homeownership rates. Our results highlight that the pension system and its financing have decisive long‐term effects on homeownership. The latter is even more significant than income tax, where labor and capital income taxation affect homeownership in opposite directions.

Child Labor, Corruption, and Development

Abstract Employing an overlapping generations model with endogenous education choice and corruption, we investigate how child labor and corruption influence human capital accumulation and development. We show that multiple steady states exist in the economy. One steady state has a high level of human capital, while the other has a low level of human capital. In the steady state with a low level of human capital, child labor and corruption exist, fertility and child mortality rates are high, and the welfare level is low. Conversely, in the steady state with a high level of human capital, child labor and corruption are diminished, fertility and child mortality rates are low, and welfare is high. In addition, we show that it is difficult to steer an economy away from a poverty trap with child labor and corruption because bureaucrats of the current generation are opposed to policy changes, such as the reinforcement of monitoring and penal regulations. However, we highlight the possibility for the government to develop the economy in the poverty trap by implementing an education policy, which is Pareto improving.

On natural interest rate volatility

Episodes of low natural interest rates, even transitory, pose a challenge to monetary policy, by possibly causing the effective lower bound (ELB) on the policy rate to bind. Those episodes are more likely to occur not only when the natural rate is low on average but also when fluctuations around its average level are large. We study the responsiveness of the natural interest rate to structural aggregate shocks affecting the aggregate supply of and demand for savings. Using a quantitative overlapping-generations model, we trace back this responsiveness to the slopes of aggregate savings supply and demand curves and argue that both curves have likely flattened over the past four decades in the US This implies a greater sensitivity of the natural interest rate to structural shocks affecting the supply of and demand for aggregate savings — making it more likely, all else equal, that it fall into negative territory.

A Necessary and Sufficient Condition for the Existence of Chaotic Dynamics in an Overlapping Generations Model

A Necessary and Sufficient Condition for the Existence of Chaotic Dynamics in an Overlapping Generations Model

Public investment, factor income taxation, and intergenerational welfare distribution in an overlapping generations model

Public investment, factor income taxation, and intergenerational welfare distribution in an overlapping generations model

The macroeconomic effects of universal basic income programs

I develop a heterogeneous agents overlapping generations model to assess the welfare effects of substituting the US income security system with a UBI policy. I study two counterfactual exercises: an expenditure-neutral reform and a large, policy-oriented UBI reform with a transfer equivalent to $1000 monthly, both financed by changes in the consumption tax. The first exercise has a moderate fiscal impact, induces increases in the aggregate output and employment, and reduces earnings and wealth inequality. The second exercise requires a large increase in the consumption tax rate, decreases employment and output, and increases earnings inequality, which moves sideways for wealth. In both cases, disposable income and consumption are more equally distributed, with less accrual at the top. The two economies generate positive welfare gains, with those for the generous UBI economy being larger.

Social security, bequests, and social comparisons

AbstractWe examine the long‐run impact of unfunded social security on capital stock and wealth inequality in an overlapping generations (OLG) model where newborn individuals differ in their inheritance. In our model, individuals' decisions are subject to social comparisons, which can lead to overspending on personal consumption and result in zero bequests left within poor families. In this scenario, unfunded social security increases long‐run wealth inequality by redistributing wealth from poor to rich families, who always leave bequests. However, it increases long‐run capital stock, too. We also show that when none or all of the families leave bequests in the long run, our model predicts negative and neutral effects of social security on capital accumulation, in line with the standard OLG models of Diamond and Barro. Thus, our results emphasize the need to account for heterogeneity in bequest behavior in the analysis of social security.

When you need it or when I die? Timing of monetary transfers from parents to children

The standard overlapping generations model assumes the ability to borrow against bequests. If this assumption is not met, it may happen that not all generations smooth their consumption over time. We prove that by allowing for inter vivos transfers in this latter situation, all generations smooth consumption, i.e. the first best solution is restored. Next, using a combination of Dutch survey and administrative data, we provide empirical support for the model's implication that parents transfer wealth when their children need to borrow out of future resources. Our findings suggest an instrumental role for inter vivos transfers as a device that generations can resort to for smoothing their consumption over time.

Macroeconomic analysis of the child benefit: Fertility, demographic structure, and welfare

This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of the child benefit, using a general equilibrium overlapping generations model incorporating fertility choices. The model is calibrated to Japan and produces the benefit elasticity of fertility in line with the empirical estimates. Expanding the per-child payment leads to welfare gains for future generations in the long-run equilibrium. Notably, the long-run gains extend to individuals who are childless throughout their lives and do not receive child benefits. Higher fertility rates facilitated by the expansion and the resulting demographic change account for the results via several channels. However, reaching the new equilibrium takes approximately 100 years as the demographic change necessitates sufficient transition periods. The accrual of welfare gains is thus gradual and takes a long time.

Financing universal health care: Premiums or payroll taxes?

This paper presents a stochastic overlapping generations model with endogenous health investment to study the transition from the existing hybrid health insurance system in Germany towards a uniform system, financed by either funded or unfunded premiums or payroll taxes.Our simulation results highlight the insurance properties of payroll taxes, but also their cost in terms of labor supply distortions and moral hazard. We find that compulsory deductibles decrease aggregate welfare in Germany, although they reduce moral hazard and increase private health investment. Reform models with premiums also induce precautionary behavior and increase labor supply, but at the same time increase exposure to productivity risk. Since the introduction of a funded system is costly for transitional cohorts, unfunded premiums provide the highest efficiency gains in our framework.

Non-linear means-tested pensions: Welfare and distributional analyses

We present a novel approach to public pension systems by introducing a new class of non-linear means tests, encompassing conventional linear pension systems. Our framework accommodates both progressive and regressive testing methodologies. We develop an overlapping generation model designed for a small open economy with heterogeneous agents, determining the socially optimal pension function. Through calibration of our model to the Australian context, we find that the optimal non-linear income test exhibits strong regressivity, coupled with a diminished average withdrawal rate as workers’ income increases. This work sheds light on optimizing pension structures to better align with the distributional and macroeconomic structure of the economy.

On equilibrium determinacy in overlapping generations models with money

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the local determinacy of monetary and non-monetary steady states in Tirole (1985)’s classical two-period overlapping generations model with capital and production. We show that the sufficient condition for local determinacy in endowment economies provided by Scheinkman (1980) does not generalize to models with production: there are robust examples with arbitrary utility functions in which the non-monetary steady state is locally determinate or indeterminate. In contrast, the monetary steady state is locally determinate under fairly weak conditions.

Fair Pension Policies with Occupation-Specific Ageing

Abstract We study the optimal design of a fair public pension system in a multi-period overlapping generations model with occupation-specific morbidity and mortality that depends on the retirement age. The fairness constraint acts as institutional device ensuring that lifetime returns to contributions are equal across occupational groups. We consider group-specific replacement rates and a calculatory interest rate for early contributions as policy instruments. Calibrating the model to Germany, we find that the transition to optimal fair pension policies may induce early retirement of blue-collar workers and significantly raises their lifetime pension benefits and welfare. Aggregate welfare increases in all fair pension scenarios.

Public education and the environment

This paper investigated, in an overlapping generations model highlighting two-period lived households, the influence of education and environmental awareness on physical capital and environmental terms by sketching, at the stable steady-state equilibrium, the comparative static examination. According to this approach, the study has shown that public education policy can neither boost environmental quality standards nor the capital stock. The study also found that larger environmental awareness as young results in upper capital accumulation and upper environmental quality. Regarding individuals' environmental awareness in old age, it was revealed that it leads on the one hand to less physical capital accumulation and on the other hand to a better environmental quality, only in the case where the value of environmental awareness at a young age is 10 and the value of environmental awareness at old age is greater than or equal to 40. Keywords: Capital accumulation; environmental awareness; environmental quality; public education