Abstract Study question Do cumulative delivery rates (CDRs) per aspiration cycle differ in low-prognosis patients according to the Bologna and POSEIDON (Patient-Oriented-Strategies-Encompassing IndividualizeD-Oocyte-Number) classification criteria? Summary answer The CDR was 8.7% in Bologna and 22.7% in POSEIDON. The odds of achieving live-birth were ∼3-fold higher in POSEIDON than in the Bologna group. What is known already Bologna criteria were generated to address the heterogeneity in the definition of the Poor Ovarian Response (POR). However, patients meeting these criteria may not be homogeneous in terms of the number of oocytes retrieved and live birth rate. Subsequently, as a more inclusive classification, the POSEIDON criteria were proposed to stratify low-prognosis patients according to female age and suboptimal response to ovarian stimulation. To our knowledge, there is a paucity of data comparing CDRs between the POSEIDON and Bologna groups. Study design, size, duration Retrospective cohort study including 1250 patients undergoing their first ovarian egg retrieval cycle at Hacettepe University IVF Center in Ankara between 2017 and 2023. Exclusion criteria were female age >45 years old, body mass index >35 kg/m2, azoospermia, pre-implantation genetic testing (PGT) for structural rearrangement or monogenic disorders, fertility preservation cycles, dual-stimulation cycles, premature ovarian insufficiency, and hypogonadotropic hypogonadism. The primary outcome measured was CDR defined by ICMART (International Committee for Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technologies). Participants/materials, setting, methods The Bologna patients have at least two of the following three features; female-age ≥40 or prior ovarian surgery, AMH<1.1ng/ml or antral-follicle-count (AFC)<5-7, and obtaining ≤3 oocytes in prior conventional stimulation. POSEIDON patients were categorized into four groups; younger(<35) and older(≥35) women with AMH≥1.2/AFC≥5 experiencing an unexpected poor(<4 oocytes-retrieved) or suboptimal(4–9 oocytes-retrieved) response, along with respective younger and older counterparts with AMH<1.1/AFC<5. Non-POSEIDON patients were those with AMH≥1.2/AFC≥5 and >9 oocytes-retrieved. General-Estimated-Equation(GEE) analysis was employed. Main results and the role of chance Out of 1250 patients, 79.6% were classified as POSEIDON, with sub-groups as follows: 5.28% Group 1a, 23.4% Group 1b, 3.6% Group 2a, 10.1% Group 2b, 14.64% Group 3, and 22.48% Group 4. The number of patients meeting Bologna criteria was 17.4% (218). For POSEIDON patients, median[IQR] values were: age 34 [30-38], AMH 1.33 [0.65-2.69], oocytes retrieved 4 [2-6], and embryo transfers 1 [1-2]. For non-POSEIDON patients: age 30 [27-33], AMH 4.63 [2.93-7.07], oocytes retrieved 13 [11-15], and embryo transfers 2 [1-3]. In Bologna patients: age 40 [36-42], AMH 0.46 [0.20-0.76], oocytes retrieved 2 [1-3], and embryo transfers 1 [0-1]. For non-Bologna patients: age 31 [28-36], AMH 2.30 [1.17-4.29], oocytes retrieved 6 [3-9], and embryo transfers 1 [1-2]. CDR for non-POSEIDON: 49.8%; Group 1a, 24.2%; Group 1b, 34.1%; Group 2a, 15.6%; Group 2b, 27.6%; Group 3, 20.8%; Group 4, 10.7%. In clustered-GEE analysis, using non-POSEIDON as reference, odds ratios (ORs) for live birth were: Group 1a OR 0.32 [0.18 - 0.60]; Group 1b OR 0.52 [0.37-0.74]; Group 2a OR 0.19 [0.08-0.43]; Group 2b OR 0.38 [0.24-0.61]; Group 3 OR 0.26 [0.17-0.41]; Group 4 OR 0.12 [0.08-0.19]. CDR for the Bologna group: 8.7% (OR: 0.10, 0.06-0.16); non-Bologna patients: 32.4% [OR: 0.48, 0.39-0.60]. Limitations, reasons for caution The limitations of the study encompass its retrospective cohort design and the variability introduced by different individuals conducting antral follicle counts using 2D ultrasonography. Wider implications of the findings Significant CDR differences exist between Bologna and Poseidon groups. POSEIDON patients show ∼2-fold lower CDR than normal responders, and Bologna patients exhibit ∼4-fold lower CDR than non-Bologna patients. Poseidon criteria cover a broader range of low-prognosis patients, while meeting Bologna criteria indicates a narrower, more specific group with poorer outcomes. Trial registration number N/A
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