Purpose This study aims to identify the main determinants predicting employeesâ organizational commitment types and to evaluate the significance of the predictive model from the perspectives of career identity and organizational identity. Design/methodology/approach This study used a quantitative methodology to develop a predictive model for employeesâ organizational commitment. The authors refined the sample of employees who are in the career establishment stage and have a tenure of less than 10 years. This study finally used the sample of 1,257 employees from Human Capital Corporate Panel data (HCCP) and applied random forest as the representative ensemble model. Findings This study developed the predictive model with strong performance. This study identified key determinants, including task satisfaction, top management leadership, top management HRD support, salary satisfaction and relationship-oriented culture. Originality/value This study connected employee career identity and organizational identity. This study found that the connection is strengthened by top management leadership, organizational culture, talent management and HR department effectiveness. This study contributes to enhancing the understanding of employee commitment and informs effective human resource management strategies.
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