Optimistic Forecasts Research Articles (Page 1)

The almost complete depletion of easily recoverable oil reserves and intensive development of reserves with complex geological structures characterize the development of oil fields today. Due to the non-standard geological structure of such reservoirs, operators face multiple challenges that do not appear with the production of easily recoverable oil. A vivid example is oil field K, which contains low-viscosity oil and has a well-permeable terrigenous pore reservoir. Initial data obtained during exploratory drilling and trial production allowed optimistic forecasts of achieving an oil recovery factor (ORF) of 0.364. However, features of the geological structure hindered the achievement of this recovery target. This paper studies explore potential strategies for increasing oil recovery in the AB 1-2 area of oil field K. The aim of this paper is to identify reasons for the low oil recovery at oil field K and to develop recommendations for methods, which could enhance recovery and increase the oil recovery factor. The authors created synthetic hydrodynamic model of the AB1-2 oil object. They also performed multivariate calculations to analyze the structure of oil saturation and clarify the causes of low oil recovery. The authors reviewed six development strategies for the AB 1-2 object model: traditional water flooding, cyclic water flooding with injection wells, cyclic water flooding with injection and production wells, and polymer flooding. The oil recovery factor values obtained in these scenarios ranged from 0,238 to 0,265. Based on the results of this study, the authors recommend to use a combination of cyclic and polymer flooding.

Eponymy family firms and optimistic forecasts

Abstract We provide evidence that some managers use a multi‐period, coordinated strategy involving inflated current‐period discretionary accruals and optimistic forecasts of future earnings to delay the revelation of bad news. Inflating discretionary accruals increases investor expectations of future performance, and issuing optimistic earnings forecasts of future earnings supports the inflated accruals and extends the horizon for managers to benefit. This strategy is more pronounced for firms that engage in earnings management outside of GAAP, suggesting intentional behavior. Our evidence indicates that managers use this coordinated strategy when firms experience significant bad news and cannot delay revealing all of the bad news through accrual management. We also find that managers use this coordinated strategy when focusing on short‐term performance due to career concerns (i.e., dismissal) or retirement or when they have shorter stock option vesting schedules, which motivates them to inflate investor expectations for shorter‐term personal benefits. Furthermore, managers using this strategy do not hold deep in the money exercisable stock options, which is consistent with managers' private assessment of a higher (lower) likelihood of releasing bad (good) news in the future.

Abstract We survey a large, representative sample of retail investors in China to elicit their memories of stock market investments and their return expectations. We merge these survey data with administrative transaction data to test a model in which investors selectively recall past experiences to form their beliefs. Our analysis uncovers new facts about investor memory and highlights similarity-based recall as a key mechanism of belief formation in financial markets. A rising market prompts investors to recall their past experiences more positively, leading to more optimistic forecasts of future returns. Recalled experiences can explain cross-investor variation in return expectations and, in our setting, dominate actual experiences in their explanatory power. In the transaction data, we confirm that recalled experiences are reflected in investors’ trading decisions through a belief channel.

The article aims to explore the emblematic function of choral singing, positioning it as a "key" to understanding the relationship ‎between two cultural development trends – global and local traditions, which remains highly relevant to contemporary performance practice. ‎The article examines the choral art of Ukraine, which has historically functioned as a performative phenomenon within a sacred chronotope. ‎At the level of compositional creativity, the dimensions of "sacred – secular" and "global–local" coexist on equal footing, facilitated by the ‎high standard of choral performance culture. The study addresses the consequences of postmodern aesthetics, particularly the dominant role ‎of globalization in the creative practices of the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The key argument is that, within the musical component of ‎this cultural cycle, a "counter" movement emerged, which, when viewed from a historical distance, effectively highlights the "one‎dimensionality" and narrow perspective of seeing globalization as the defining characteristic of the 21st century. This is vividly illustrated ‎through choral art, particularly the history of Ukrainian sacred singing, from the Renaissance to the present. The material selected for ‎analysis encompasses the history of Ukrainian sacred singing, including key stages of its evolution (church monody, linear and part-singing, ‎sacred concerto), genre specifics (songs, prayers), and the compositional embodiment of the emblematic features of the musical-national ‎language. An optimistic forecast can be made based on the example of Ukrainian sacred choral singing's role in the choral culture of the late ‎‎20th and 21st centuries. The cultural experience of human interaction occurs within the zone of a “counter movement” between two ‎tendencies: globalization, which is built upon the experiences of many local traditions, and regional cultures, which expand into a broader ‎space, gaining insight into the global world‎.

Sea level rise (SLR) and increased urbanisation of coastal areas have exacerbated coastal flood threats, making them even more severe in important cultural sites. In this context, the role of hard coastal defences such as promenades and embankments needs to be carefully assessed. Here, a thorough investigation is conducted in Grado, one of the most significant coastal and historical towns in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region of Italy. Grado is located on a barrier island of the homonymous lagoon, the northernmost of the Adriatic Sea, and is prone to flooding from both the sea and the back lagoon. The mean and maximum sea levels from the historical dataset of Venice (1950–2023) were analysed using the Gumbel-type distribution, allowing for the identification of annual extremes based on their respective return periods (RPs). Grado and Trieste sea level datasets (1991–2023) were used to calibrate the statistics of the extremes and to calculate the local component (subsidence) of relative SLR. The research examined the occurrence of annual exceedance of the minimum threshold water level of 110 cm, indicating Grado’s initial notable marine ingression. The study includes a detailed analysis of flood impacts on the urban fabric, categorised into sectors based on the promenade elevation on the lagoon side, the most vulnerable to flooding. Inundated areas were obtained using a high-resolution digital terrain model through a GIS-based technique, assessing both the magnitude and exposure of the urban environment to flood risk due to storm surges, also considering relative SLR projections for 2050 and 2100. Currently, approximately 42% of Grado’s inhabited area is inundated with a sea level threshold value of 151 cm, which occurs during surge episodes with a 30-year RP. By 2100, with an optimistic forecast (SSP1-2.6) of local SLR of around +53 cm, the same threshold will be met with a surge of ca. 100 cm, which occurs once a year. Thus, extreme levels linked with more catastrophic events with current secular RPs will be achieved with a multi-year frequency, inundating more than 60% of the urbanized area. Grado, like Venice, exemplifies trends that may impact other coastal regions and historically significant towns of national importance. As a result, the generated simulations, as well as detailed analyses of urban sectors where coastal flooding may occur, are critical for medium- to long-term urban planning aimed at adopting proper adaptation measures.

The difficult period of development of the domestic economy leaves reasons for optimism. Statistics show the growth of business based on the distribution of franchises. Such a business model inspires confidence and is quite convenient for individuals with capital of slightly less than one million rubles. The authors studied the characteristics of the franchising business model, the features of its application in various industries, as well as channels for increasing the capitalization of corporations through franchising. An analysis of the dynamics of franchise development in Russia made it possible to determine the main vectors of development of this business model: digitalization, expansion of franchises and tightening of requirements for franchisees. At the same time, a study of the key risks of such a business confirmed the need for strict monitoring and control of the quality of products and services, reputational threats, the complexity of network management and the importance of protecting intellectual property. The article may be of interest to practicing researchers due to the prospects and growing popularity of franchising among young people, as well as optimistic forecasts based on primary and relevant secondary information.

Amid the current economic environment dominated by the widespread consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the economy of the Russian Federation has shown surprising resilience despite the unprecedented international sanctions. These sanctions, imposed by the European Union, USA, and other Western economies, target numerous sectors, from energy to transport and banking. Nonetheless, Russian authorities have managed to revitalize the economy, overcoming a brief recession in 2022 and achieving recovery in 2023, with optimistic forecasts for 2024. Our research hypothesizes that the primary drivers sustaining the Russian economy are closely linked to its reliance on energy exports and strategic international partnerships. Furthermore, it posits that the current economic environment, characterized by sanctions and shifting global dynamics, has significantly reshaped the Russian Federation’s patterns of international cooperation, including trade flows and foreign direct investment. By employing a mixed-method approach that integrates a comprehensive review of recent literature with quantitative analyses of international trade and FDI trends, this study seeks to validate these hypotheses and provide a nuanced understanding of the evolving economic landscape in Russian Federation. Our findings indicate that although the sanctions had a severe impact in the first year, reshaping the international partnerships of the Russian Federation, the current “Pivot to Asia” strategy and the partnership with China have opened new possibilities for international cooperation. Additionally, growing energy exports have successfully fueled Russian economic growth. Despite the initial exodus of foreign capital during 2022, recent legal initiatives and new regulations have slowed the drop in FDI.

The article examines the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in fundraising today abroad (in Europe) and in Russia, as well as the opportunities and challenges of using AI in the future. There is a minor use of AI in fundraising today both abroad and in Russia, mainly generative AI. An optimistic forecast is given for the use of AI in the future, taking into account the ethical aspect. AI will not replace humans, but it will partially free them from routine tasks, analyze data and segment donors more effectively, predict donations, optimize new fundraising campaigns, create content, personalize communications, etc.

CEOs' hometown connections and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China

Assisted migration of cloud forest trees: Unearthing the effects of climatic transfer distance.

The aim of the research is to identify the structural-semantic slots and means of cohesion in modern search alerts by analyzing the linguistic means used in their compilation. The article examines the invariant and facultative parameters of alerts (personal data, description of a person’s appearance and their distinctive features), which are aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of search activities and act as the main “investigative tool”. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the fact that it introduces the concept of “linguistic habitology” for the first time, and also proposes a categorization of missing person alerts, implementing a functional-pragmatic and communicatively oriented approach to the structural-compositional and content aspects of search content. Of particular significance in this case are the linguistic models for representing social and biometric information about a missing person. The study found that the widespread and purposeful use in the process of operational-search activities of search alerts, built according to a strict, logically verified, unified scheme, allows us to make an optimistic forecast, according to which not only the probability of increasing the percentage indicators of found people increases, but also the terms of their search are significantly reduced.

The global energy transition is characterized by a shift from fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. It is emphasized that hydrogen energy has significant potential for the development of innovative business, international trade, and energy transition for a sustainable post-carbon future. Currently, most hydrogen is consumed locally, without significant volumes of interstate supplies. It is noted that the development of this market faces many technical challenges, including high costs of producing “green” hydrogen, technical difficulties with the infrastructure for its transportation and storage due to low density, and the need to create large-scale infrastructure. Demand for hydrogen is growing as it plays a key role in decarbonization and greenhouse gas emissions reduction, especially in heavy industry, transportation, and energy systems. In the short term, hydrogen trade will likely occur mainly between neighboring countries through pipelines, limiting the scope of international trade until cost-reducing technologies are developed. In the long term, as demand for green hydrogen grows, especially in Europe and Asia, the trend toward active trade in this resource will gradually change. According to the most optimistic forecasts, the global hydrogen market will gradually grow until 2030, and the volume of international hydrogen trade may reach 120 million tons per year. It has been theorized that hydrogen is becoming increasingly important in the global energy system, and the geopolitics of energy trade will inevitably change. Energy geopolitics has traditionally been dominated by fossil fuel exporters such as the Middle East and Russia. However, the transition to hydrogen has the potential to decentralize energy production, making countries with rich renewable energy resources, such as the Persian Gulf, North Africa, and parts of Europe, key players in the new hydrogen market. This underscores the importance of developing international hydrogen supply chains, particularly from regions rich in renewable energy sources, such as North Africa, the Middle East, and Australia. Institutional support for the energy transition for a sustainable post-carbon future is implemented at the global and macro levels. At the global level, through a system of rules and regulations for the international market, international trade agreements and customs regulation, and international coordination on the implementation of hydrogen quality and safety standards. At the macro level, through government institutions, regulatory frameworks, and hydrogen economy development strategies, which have already become an integral part of the energy plans of many countries seeking to achieve carbon neutrality, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and improve energy security. It is substantiated that the hydrogen market will face a difficult path related to solving technical and economic issues. However, thanks to the development of innovative business and technological innovations, support from governments, private investors, and various stakeholder groups, this sector has a great chance to become a key player in the future energy landscape, playing an important role in the decarbonization of the global economy. Keywords: innovative business, institutional support, energy transition, hydrogen, global hydrogen economy, energy geopolitics, decarbonization, sustainable development, sustainable post-carbon future, green transition, green investments, technological innovation, international trade, emissions trading system, regulation, strategic interests, economic interests, strategy of hydrogen use for energy, energy strategy, strategizing the hydrogen economy, country strategies, global development triggers, trade policy, environmental policy, international trade agreements, customs regulation, international trade.

Electric vehicles (EVs) powered by renewable energy are central to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7.2, which aims to increase the share of renewable energy and reduce carbon emissions in the transportation sector. A 2023 projection estimated that EV sales in leading EV-importing Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, including Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Rwanda, Mauritius, and Seychelles, would exceed 700 million units within 5 years and grow to 4 million by 2037. Despite these optimistic forecasts, the current adoption rate of EVs in SSA remains significantly low. This study extends the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) framework to identify key factors influencing EV adoption in the region. The model incorporates facilitating conditions, trust, performance expectancy, social influence, network externalities, and effort expectancy as critical determinants. Empirical results reveal that facilitating conditions (H6) have a 30% stronger effect on behavioral intentions compared to network externalities (H5). These findings highlight the need for robust infrastructure, supportive policies, and favorable conditions to accelerate EV adoption in SSA and shape EV purchase decisions. The paper concludes by discussing the empirical results and proposing directions for future research to deepen understanding of EV adoption dynamics in the region.

Since private cars and vans accounted for more than 25% of global oil consumption and about 10% of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2022, increasing the share of electric vehicle (EV) ownership is considered an important solution for reducing CO2 emissions. At the same time, reducing emissions entails certain economic losses for those countries whose exports are largely covered by the oil trade. The explosive growth of the EV segment over the past 15 years has given rise to overly optimistic forecasts for global EV penetration by 2050. One of the major obstacles to such a development scenario is the limited availability of resources, especially critical materials. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the global EV fleet based on the limited availability of critical materials such as lithium, one of the key elements for battery production. The proposed model has three distinctive features. First, it shows that the classical logistic function, due to the specificity of its structure, cannot correctly describe market saturation in the case of using resources with limited serves. Second, even the use of a special multiplier that describes the market saturation process taking into account the depletion (finiteness) of the used resource does not obtain satisfactory economic results because of the “high speed” depletion of this resource. Third, the analytical solution of the final model indicates the point in time at which changes in saturation rate occur. The latter situation allows us to determine the tracking of market saturation, which is more similar to the process that is actually occurring. We believe that this model can also be validated to estimate the production of wind turbines that use rare earth elements such as neodymium and dysprosium (for the production of powerful and permanent magnets for wind turbines). These results also suggest the need for oil-exporting countries to technologically diversify their economies to minimize losses in the transition to a low-carbon economy.

В 60-80 годы в СССР был создан скоростной пассажирский флот по своей численности и масштабам перевозок не имевший аналогов в мире. В подавляющем большинстве он был представлен СПК конструкции ЦКБ по СПК им. Р.Е. Алексеева. Регулярное сообщение на СПК связывало между собой более полусотни крупных речных и морских портов бывшего государства Происшедшая в стране в начале 90-х годов смена экономического уклада стала одной из определяющих причин деградации скоростного флота. В статье приведено сравнение показателей транспортной эффективности транспортных средств, реализующих кардинально различные принципы движения (полет, ход на крыльях, качение, парение на воздушной подушке), проведены на базе классических понятий механики и теплотехники для синтеза критерия, дающего объективную оценки инженерного совершенства транспортных машин. В 2012-2014 годы ЦКБ по СПК им. Р.Е. Алексеева возобновило проектирование и строительство высокоскоростных судов нового поколения для военного и гражданского флотов на собственной производственной базе компании в Нижегородской области. С удовлетворением автор отмечает, что его умеренно-оптимистические прогнозы относительно дальнейшей судьбы пассажирских СПК, оказались созвучными с мнением ученых и специалистов в области скоростных пассажирских перевозок на водном транспорте. In the 60-80years, a high-speed passenger fleet was created in the USSR, which had no analogues in the world in terms of its size and scale of transportation. The vast majority of it was presented by the hydrofoils of the design of the Central Design Bureau for Hydrofoils named after R.E. Alekseev. Regular traffic to the hydrofoils connected more than fifty large river and sea ports of the former state. The change in the economic structure that took place in the country in the early 90s became one of the determining reasons for the degradation of the high-speed fleet. The article presents a comparison of indicators of transport efficiency of vehicles implementing radically different principles of movement (flight, wing travel, rolling, hovering on an air cushion), conducted on the basis of classical concepts of mechanics and thermal engineering to synthesize a criterion that gives an objective assessment of the engineering excellence of transport vehicles. In 2012-2014, the R.E. Alekseev Central Design Bureau for Hydrofoils resumed the design and construction of new-generation high-speed vessels for the military and civilian fleets at the company's own production base in the Nizhny Novgorod Region. The author notes with satisfaction that his moderately optimistic forecasts regarding the future ofpassenger hydrofoils turned out to be in line with the opinions of scientists and specialists in the field of high-speed passenger transportation on water transport.

ABSTRACTArtificial intelligence (AI) is crucial in the fashion industry nowadays. It facilitates innovation in design, production, e‐commerce, personalisation and supply chain management, improving efficient operations and providing opportunities to support sustainability. The research aimed to identify the current use of artificial intelligence in the fashion industry and its arrangement and determine to what extent AI is used to support fashion sustainability. Data collection and selection were according to PRISMA guidelines and were retrieved from Scopus and WoS (January 2017–October 2024; n = 82 (from 234 identified items)). Data analysis was performed using six steps of thematic analysis, including topic modelling (in the MAXQDA 24 programme). The identified themes revealed the current effects of AI use in the fashion industry (RQ1): data‐centric design, forecasting using big data, and experience‐oriented services. AI technologies are predominantly utilised in fabric production and B2B distribution. Experience‐focused services are enhanced through precise image searches and chatbot support. Platforms like SaaS, generative fashion, and Science4Fashion enable the creation of new designs. Applications such as Style. Me serve as personal stylists, facilitating customised outfit selection and streamlining the purchasing process. The last theme (RQ2) allowed to establish that sustainable development requires innovation based on AI technology. Despite optimistic forecasts, available solutions are only used to a limited extent. The main barrier is that companies put economic goals above sustainable development goals. Models that combine commercial and environmental perspectives are essential in developing beneficial change strategies. Therefore, it is important to monitor progress in this area.

The recent enhancement of working conditions and social security for domestic service workers in Spain has enabled the integration of this group of female workers into the same legal framework as other employees. Despite the progress already made and the optimistic forecast that the ratification of Convention 189 in 2022 has opened, domestic workers continue to be one of the groups that suffer the most precariousness in Spain. Added to the laxity of the implementation of legislation is the strong presence of the underground economy and a care management model that facilitates the expansion of the deregulated market and the recruitment of irregular migrant women to occupy these precarious labor niches (live-in domestic workers). This article aims to identify the impact of psychosocial working conditions on the physical and mental health of female migrants who are live-in domestic workers in Madrid and Barcelona, Spain. The research employs semi-structured, in-depth interviews to understand the representations and experiences in migrant women’s health, by unveiling the meanings of their experiences through a thematic content analysis. The study concludes with a reflection on which psychosocial, legislative, and policy-level interventions are needed to improve the health and well-being of this population of migrant women.

The study is devoted to the issues of urban development in the conditions of contraction and depopulation. One of the reasons, which the authors mention, is partial or complete disregard of the opinion of significant stakeholders of urban strategizing. The low level of involvement of the local population in the development of their territories negatively affects not only the level of economic development, but also has a number of social problems (criminalization, marginalization, outflow of population, etc.). In the paper, based on the synthesis of quantitative and qualitative methods, we attempt to identify the level of involvement of the local population of the city of Volgograd in the management. In order to identify the opinion of residents about the present and future of the city, an online survey of residents of the city of Volgograd was organized and conducted. The survey was conducted between September and November 2022. As a result, data on associations about the city, positive and negative aspects of living in the city were identified and analyzed, and the most typical character traits of citizens were revealed. It was found that strategic and urban planning documents of many Russian cities ignore changes in urban development and environmental factors, focusing on optimistic forecasts. Such unfulfilled attitudes lead to the absence of medium- and long-term urban development forecasts in the plans for reconstruction of buildings and structures, reclamation of territories, environmental changes, involvement of business and local communities in the development of strategies. In addition, they do not take into account the opinions of important participants of urban planning. It is concluded that it is necessary to involve actively and broadly the local population in the processes of urban development at all stages of strategizing.

ObjectivesThe planning process for a new hospital relies on assumptions about future levels of demand. Typically, such assumptions are characterised by point estimates, the flaw-of-averages, base-rate neglect and overoptimism from...