During sub-optimal weather, a free-space optical (FSO) link range degrades depending on attenuation (atmospheric extinction) and turbulence effects. The ability to predict the system level performance can be exceedingly challenging as the atmospheric variability in a maritime link can be large and difficult to model. Link budget estimation for FSO systems often takes a nominal view of atmospheric conditions; here, we use statistical atmospheric predictions specific to a geographic area of interest to enable performance trades to be evaluated through link budget analysis. We compare these models to field-collected data to show the utility of the statistical atmospheric analysis in predicting FSO link performance for specific parts of the world. We have performed shore-to-ship FSO communications field tests at 10 Gb/s with links reaching out to a horizon limit over 40 km away in times of moderate extinction to clear weather. We provide further analysis by describing the expected performance of the link using statistical probabilities via cumulative distribution functions of both extinction and turbulence. The atmospheric variability can be determined for nearly any region of interest through the implementation of numerical weather prediction data to calculate the atmospheric performance drivers. These conditions are specifically evaluated for the 2017 Trident Warrior field test off the coast of San Diego, California, USA.
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