Optical Light Curves Research Articles

Cepheid Metallicity in the Leavitt Law (C-MetaLL) survey

Context. The highly debated effect of metallicity on the absolute magnitudes of classical Cepheid variables needs to be properly quantified for determining accurate and precise distances based on their Leavitt Law. Aims. Our goal is to obtain homogeneous optical and near-infrared light curves of Milky Way Cepheid variables complementing their already collected high-resolution spectroscopic metallicities as part of the C-MetaLL survey. Together with Gaia parallaxes, we investigate period-luminosity-metallicity relations for Cepheid variables at multiple wavelengths. Methods. We present homogeneous multiband (grizJHKs) time-series observations of 78 Cepheids including 49 fundamental mode variables and 29 first-overtone mode variables. These observations were collected simultaneously using the ROS2 and REMIR instruments at the Rapid Eye Mount telescope. Multiwavelength photometric data were used to investigate pulsation properties of Cepheid variables and derive their period–luminosity (PL) and period–Wesenheit (PW) relations. Results. The Cepheid sample covers a large range of distances (0.5 − 19.7 kpc) with varying precision of parallaxes, and thus astrometry-based luminosity fits were used to derive PL and PW relations in optical Sloan (griz) and near-infrared (JHKs) filters. These empirically calibrated relations exhibit large scatter primarily due to larger uncertainties in parallaxes of distant Cepheids, but their slopes agree well with those previously determined in the literature. Using homogeneous high-resolution spectroscopic metallicities of 61 Cepheids covering −1.1 < [Fe/H] < 0.6 dex, we quantified the metallicity dependence of PL and PW relations which varies between −0.30 ± 0.11 (in Ks) and −0.55 ± 0.12 (in z) mag dex−1 in grizJHKs bands. However, the metallicity dependence in the residuals of the PL and PW relations is predominantly seen for metal-poor stars ([Fe/H] < −0.3 dex), which also have larger parallax uncertainties. The modest sample size precludes us from separating the contribution to the residuals due to parallax uncertainties, metallicity effects, and reddening errors. While this Cepheid sample is not optimal for calibrating the Leavitt law, upcoming photometric and spectroscopic datasets of the C-MetaLL survey will allow the accurate derivation of PL and PW relations in the Sloan and near-infrared bandpasses, which will be useful for the distance measurements in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and upcoming extremely large telescopes.

Stellar Cycle and Evolution of Polar Spots in an M+WD Binary

Stellar activity cycles reveal continuous relaxation and induction of magnetic fields. The activity cycle is typically traced through the observation of cyclic variations in total brightness or Ca H&K emission flux of stars, as well as cyclic variations in the orbital periods of binary systems. In this work, we report the identification of a semidetached binary system (TIC 16320250) consisting of a white dwarf (0.67 M ⊙) and an active M dwarf (0.56 M ⊙). The long-term multiband optical light curves spanning twenty years revealed three repeated patterns, suggestive of a possible activity cycle of about 10 years of the M dwarf. Light-curve fitting indicates the repeated variation is caused by the evolution, particularly the motion, of polar spots. The significant Ca H&K, Hα, ultra-violet, and X-ray emissions imply that the M dwarf is one of the most magnetically active stars. We propose that in the era of large time-domain photometric sky surveys (e.g., ASAS-SN, Zwicky Transient Facility, LSST, Sitian), long-term light-curve modeling can be a valuable tool for tracing and revealing stellar activity cycle, especially for stars in binary systems.

A newborn active galactic nucleus in a star-forming galaxy

Aims. We report on the finding of a newborn active galactic nucleus (AGN), based on the observation of current AGN activity in a galaxy previously classified as non-active. We subsequently characterize the AGN’s evolution. Methods. Black hole ignition event candidates were selected from a parent sample of spectrally classified non-active galaxies (2 394 312 objects), which currently show optical flux variability indicative of a type I AGN, according to the ALeRCE light curve classifier. A second epoch spectrum for a sample of candidate newborn AGNs was obtained with the SOAR telescope to search for new AGN features. Results. We present the spectral results for the most convincing case of new AGN activity for a galaxy with a prior star-forming optical classification, where the second epoch spectrum shows the appearance of prominent, broad Balmer lines, without any significant changes seen in the narrow line flux ratios. The long-term optical light curves show a steady increase in luminosity starting 1.5 years after the SDSS spectrum was taken and continuing for at least 7 years. Mid-infrared (MIR) colors from the WISE catalog have also evolved from typical non-active galaxy colors to AGN-like colors. Recent X-ray flux detections confirm its nature as an AGN.

Optical spectroscopy of blazars for the Cherenkov Telescope Array – III

Context. Blazars, which include BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars, represent the brightest persistent extragalactic sources in the high-energy (HE; 10 MeV–100 GeV) and very-high-energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) γ-ray sky. Due to their almost featureless optical/UV spectra, it is challenging to measure the redshifts of BL Lacs. As a result, about 50% of γ-ray BL Lacs lack a firm measurement of this property, which is fundamental for population studies, indirect estimates of the extragalactic background light, and fundamental physics probes (e.g., searches for Lorentz-invariance violation or axion-like particles). Aims. This paper is the third in a series of papers aimed at determining the redshift of a sample of blazars selected as prime targets for future observations with the next generation, ground-based VHE γ-ray astronomy observatory, Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO). The accurate determination of the redshift of these objects is an important aid in source selection and planning of future CTAO observations. Methods. Promising targets were selected following a sample selection obtained with Monte Carlo simulations of CTAO observations. The selected targets were expected to be detectable with CTAO in observations of 30 h or less. We performed deep spectroscopic observations of 41 of these blazars using the Keck II, Lick, SALT, GTC, and ESO/VLT telescopes. We carefully searched for spectral lines in the spectra and whenever features of the host galaxy were detected, we attempted to model the properties of the host galaxy. The magnitudes of the targets at the time of the observations were also compared to their long-term light curves. Results. Spectra from 24 objects display spectral features or a high signal-to-noise ratio (S/N). From these, 12 spectroscopic redshifts were determined, ranging from 0.2223 to 0.7018. Furthermore, 1 tentative redshift (0.6622) and 2 redshift lower limits at z > 0.6185 and z > 0.6347 were obtained. The other 9 BL Lacs showed featureless spectra, despite the high S/N (≥100) observations. Our comparisons with long-term optical light curves tentatively suggest that redshift measurements are more straightforward during an optical low state of the active galactic nucleus. Overall, we have determined 37 redshifts and 6 spectroscopic lower limits as part of our programme thus far.

The VMC survey. L. Type II Cepheids in the Magellanic Clouds: Period–luminosity relations in the near-infrared bands

Type II Cepheids (T2Cs) are the less frequently used counterparts of classical or type I Cepheids (CCs) which provide the primary calibration of the distance ladder for measuring the Hubble constant in the local Universe. In the era of the `Hubble tension', T2C variables together with the RR Lyrae stars and the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) can potentially provide non-CC-dependent calibration of the cosmic distance ladder. Our goal is to provide an absolute calibration of the period--luminosity, period--luminosity--colour, and period--Wesenheit relations (PL, PLC, and PW, respectively) of T2Cs in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), which traditionally serves as a crucial first anchor of the extragalactic distance ladder. We exploited time-series photometry in the near-infrared (NIR) $Y,\,J,$ and $K_s$ bands for a sample of approximately $320$ T2Cs in the Magellanic Clouds (MCs). These observations were acquired during 2009--2018 in the context of the VISTA survey of the Magellanic Clouds system (VMC), an ESO public survey. We supplemented the NIR photometry from the VMC survey with well-sampled optical light curves and accurate pulsation periods from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment (OGLE) IV survey and the $Gaia$ mission. We used the best-quality NIR light curves to generate custom templates for modelling sparsely sampled light curves in $YJK_s$ bands. The best-fitting $YJK_s$ template light curves were used to derive accurate and precise intensity-averaged mean magnitudes and pulsation amplitudes of 277 and 62 T2Cs in the LMC and SMC, respectively. We used optical and NIR mean magnitudes for different T2C subclasses (BLHer, WVir, and RVTau) to derive PL/PLC/PW relations in multiple bands, which were calibrated with the geometric distance to the LMC as derived from eclipsing binaries and with the $Gaia$ parallaxes. We used our new empirical calibrations of PL and PW relations to obtain distances to 22 T2C-host Galactic globular clusters, which were found to be systematically smaller by $ $0.1 mag and 0.03--0.06 mag than in the literature when the zero points are calibrated with the distance of the LMC or $Gaia$ parallaxes, respectively. Better agreement is found between our distances and those based on RR Lyrae stars in globular clusters, providing strong support for using these population II stars together with the TRGB for future distance scale studies.

Evolution of accretion disk structure of the black hole X-ray binary MAXI J1820+070 during the rebrightening phase

Abstract To understand the evolution of global accretion disk structure in the “rebrightening” phase of MAXI J1820+070, we perform a comprehensive analysis of its near infrared/optical/UV to X-ray spectral energy distribution (SED) utilizing data obtained by OISTER, Las Cumbres Observatory (LCO), Swift, NICER, and NuSTAR in 2019. Optical spectra observed with Seimei telescope in 2019 and 2020 are also analyzed. On the basis of the optical and X-ray light curves and their flux ratios, we divide the whole phase into three periods, Periods I (flux rise), II (decay), and III (dim). In the first two periods, the source stayed in the low/hard state (LHS), where the X-ray (0.3–30 keV) and optical/UV SED can both be fitted with power-law models. We interpret that the X-ray emission arises from hot corona via Comptonization, whereas the optical/UV flux is dominated by synchrotron radiation from the jets, with a partial contribution from the irradiated disk. The optical/UV power-law component smoothly connects to a simultaneous radio flux, supporting its jet origin. Balmer line profiles in the optical spectra indicate that the inner radius of an irradiated disk slightly decreased from ∼2 × 105rg (Period I) to ∼1 × 105rg (Period II), where rg is the gravitational radius, implying a change of the hot corona geometry. In Period III, the SED can be reproduced by an advection-dominated accretion flow and jet emission. However, the double-peaked Hα emission line indicates that a cool disk remained at large radii.

SN 2022oqm–A Ca-rich Explosion of a Compact Progenitor Embedded in C/O Circumstellar Material

We present the discovery and analysis of SN 2022oqm, a Type Ic supernova (SN) detected <1 day after the explosion. The SN rises to a blue and short-lived (2 days) initial peak. Early-time spectral observations of SN 2022oqm show a hot (40,000 K) continuum with high ionization C and O absorption features at velocities of 4000 km s−1, while its photospheric radius expands at 20,000 km s−1, indicating a pre-existing distribution of expanding C/O material. After ∼2.5 days, both the spectrum and light curves evolve into those of a typical SN Ic, with line velocities of ∼10,000 km s−1, in agreement with the evolution of the photospheric radius. The optical light curves reach a second peak at t ≈ 15 days. By t = 60 days, the spectrum of SN 2022oqm becomes nearly nebular, displaying strong Ca ii and [Ca ii] emission with no detectable [O i], marking this event as Ca-rich. The early behavior can be explained by 10−3 M ⊙ of optically thin circumstellar material (CSM) surrounding either (1) a massive compact progenitor such as a Wolf–Rayet star, (2) a massive stripped progenitor with an extended envelope, or (3) a binary system with a white dwarf. We propose that the early-time light curve is powered by both the interaction of the ejecta with the optically thin CSM and shock cooling (in the massive star scenario). The observations can be explained by CSM that is optically thick to X-ray photons, is optically thick in the lines as seen in the spectra, and is optically thin to visible-light continuum photons that come either from downscattered X-rays or from the shock-heated ejecta. Calculations show that this scenario is self-consistent.

Mass estimates from optical modelling of the new TRAPUM redback PSR J1910−5320

ABSTRACT Spider pulsars continue to provide promising candidates for neutron star mass measurements. Here we present the discovery of PSR J1910−5320, a new millisecond pulsar discovered in a MeerKAT observation of an unidentified Fermi-LAT gamma-ray source. This pulsar is coincident with a recently identified candidate redback binary, independently discovered through its periodic optical flux and radial velocity. New multicolour optical light curves obtained with ULTRACAM/New Technology Telescope in combination with MeerKAT timing and updated SOAR/Goodman spectroscopic radial velocity measurements allow a mass constraint for PSR J1910−5320. icarus optical light curve modelling, with streamlined radial velocity fitting, constrains the orbital inclination and companion velocity, unlocking the binary mass function given the precise radio ephemeris. Our modelling aims to unite the photometric and spectroscopic measurements available by fitting each simultaneously to the same underlying physical model, ensuring self-consistency. This targets centre-of-light radial velocity corrections necessitated by the irradiation endemic to spider systems. Depending on the gravity darkening prescription used, we find a moderate neutron star mass of either 1.6 ± 0.2 or 1.4 ± 0.2 M⊙. The companion mass of either 0.45 ± 0.04 or $0.43^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$M⊙ also further confirms PSR J1910−5320 as an irradiated redback spider pulsar.

An Extensive Hubble Space Telescope Study of the Offset and Host Light Distributions of Type I Superluminous Supernovae

We present an extensive Hubble Space Telescope rest-frame UV imaging study of the locations of Type I superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) within their host galaxies. The sample includes 65 SLSNe with detected host galaxies in the redshift range z ≈ 0.05–2. Using precise astrometric matching with SN images, we determine the distributions of the physical and host-normalized offsets relative to the host centers, as well as the fractional flux distribution relative to the underlying UV light distributions. We find that the host-normalized offsets of SLSNe roughly track an exponential disk profile, but exhibit an overabundance of sources with large offsets of 1.5–4 times their hosts' half-light radii. The SLSNe normalized offsets are systematically larger than those of long gamma-ray bursts (LGRBs), and even Type Ib/c and Type II SNe. Furthermore, we find from a Monte Carlo procedure that about 37−8+6% of SLSNe occur in the dimmest regions of their host galaxies, with a median fractional flux value of 0.16, in stark contrast to LGRBs and Type Ib/c and Type II SNe. We do not detect any significant trends in the locations of SLSNe as a function of redshift, or as a function of explosion and magnetar engine parameters inferred from modeling of their optical light curves. The significant difference in SLSN locations compared to LGRBs (and normal core-collapse SNe) suggests that at least some of their progenitors follow a different evolutionary path. We speculate that SLSNe arise from massive runaway stars from disrupted binary systems, with velocities of ∼102 km s−1.

The variability of the broad line profiles of SDSS J1430+2303

Abstract It has been argued that SDSS J1430+2303 possesses a supermassive black hole binary that has been predicted to merge within a few months or three years from 2022 January. We have conducted follow-up optical spectroscopic observations of SDSS J1430+2303 with the KOOLS-IFU on the Seimei Telescope in 2022 May, June, and July, and 2023 April. The observed spectrum around Hα shows a central broad component ∼103 km s−1 blueshifted from the narrow Hα line, as well as a broader double-peaked component with a separation of ∼± 5 × 103 km s−1, similar to the spectrum reported in 2022 January. We investigate the variability of the complex broad Hα emission line relative to the continuum over the observation period. The continuum-normalized relative flux of the central broad component shows an increasing trend from 2022 May to July, which is interpreted to be caused by the decrease of the continuum; this is also supported by damping of the X-ray, UV, and optical light curves observed for the same period. From 2022 July to 2023 April, however, the central broad component decreased significantly. For the relative flux of the broader double-peaked component, no significant change appears at any epoch. These results suggest that the complicated broad line profile of SDSS J1430+2303 is generated from at least two distinct regions. While the central broad component originates from a broad-line region, the broader double-peaked component arises in the vicinity of the continuum source.

A 12.4-day periodicity in a close binary system after a supernova.

Neutron stars and stellar-mass black holes are the remnants of massive star explosions1. Most massive stars reside in close binary systems2, and the interplay between the companion star and the newly formed compact object has been theoretically explored3, but signatures for binarity or evidence for the formation of a compact object during a supernova explosion are still lacking. Here we report a stripped-envelope supernova, SN 2022jli, which shows 12.4-day periodic undulations during the declining light curve. Narrow Hα emission is detected in late-time spectra with concordant periodic velocity shifts, probably arising from hydrogen gas stripped from a companion and accreted onto the compact remnant. A new Fermi-LAT γ-ray source is temporally and positionally consistent with SN 2022jli. The observed properties of SN 2022jli, including periodic undulations in the optical light curve, coherent Hα emission shifting and evidence for association with a γ-ray source, point to the explosion of a massive star in a binary system leaving behind a bound compact remnant. Mass accretion from the companion star onto the compact object powers the light curve of the supernova and generates the γ-ray emission.

LONG TERM OPTICAL VARIABILITY OF TWO HMXB

We discuss the optical light curves of two Be X-ray Binaries, IGR J06074+2205 and SAX J2103.5+4545, recovered from the ATLAS, ZTF and ASAS-SN databases. Both sources show long term optical variability of 620 and 420 days, respectively, with color redder when brighter. We suggest that this is due to the precession of the circumstellar disk. Another possibility is the propagation of a density wave in the disk. Only these two sources show a large amplitude, periodic optical variability from a sample of 16 well-studied high-mass X-ray Binaries (HMXB) with a Main Sequence primary star.

Photometric Metallicity and Distance for the Two RR Lyrae in Segue II and Ursa Major II Dwarf Galaxies Based on Multiband Light Curves

Multiband light curves of two RR Lyrae variables in Segue II and Ursa Major II ultrafaint dwarf galaxies were collected from near simultaneous observations using the Lulin One-meter Telescope in Vgri bands. Together with Gaia G-band light curves, we determined photometric metallicities using empirical relations involving pulsation period and Fourier parameter as dependent parameters. We demonstrated that the RR Lyrae photometric metallicity can be determined accurately when these empirical relations were employed at multiple wavelengths, which can potentially improve the distance determination based on RR Lyrae stars. The photometric metallicities based on our approach were found to be −2.27 ± 0.13 dex and −1.87 ± 0.16 dex for the RR Lyrae in Segue II and Ursa Major II UFD, respectively, with corresponding distance moduli of 17.69 ± 0.15 mag and 17.58 ± 0.15 mag, in agreement with previous literature determinations. This approach of photometric metallicity of RR Lyrae based on multiband optical light curves will be particularly relevant for distance measurements in the era of the Vera C Rubin’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

Transient Corotating Clumps around Adolescent Low-mass Stars from Four Years of TESS

Complex periodic variables (CPVs) are stars that exhibit highly structured and periodic optical light curves. Previous studies have indicated that these stars are typically disk-free pre-main-sequence M dwarfs with rotation periods ranging from 0.2 to 2 days. To advance our understanding of these enigmatic objects, we conducted a blind search using TESS 2 minute data of 65,760 K and M dwarfs with T<16 mag and d<150 pc. We found 50 high-quality CPVs, and subsequently determined that most are members of stellar associations. Among the new discoveries are the brightest (T ≈ 9.5 mag), closest (d ≈ 20 pc), and oldest (≈200 Myr) CPVs known. One exceptional object, LP 12-502, exhibited up to eight flux dips per cycle. Some of these dips coexisted with slightly different periods, and the shortest-duration dips precisely matched the expected timescale for transiting small bodies at the corotation radius. Broadly, our search confirms that CPVs are mostly young (≲150 Myr) and low-mass (≲0.4 M ⊙). The flux dips characteristic of the class have lifetimes of ≈100 cycles, although stellar flares seem to induce a sudden dip collapse once every few months. The most plausible explanation for these phenomena remains corotating concentrations of gas or dust. The gas or dust is probably entrained by the star’s magnetic field, and the sharp features could result from a multipolar field topology, a hypothesis supported by correspondences between the light curves of CPVs and of rapidly rotating B stars known to have multipolar magnetic fields.

The Effects of Thomson Scattering and Chemical Mixing on Early-time Light Curves of Double-peaked Type IIb Supernovae

Previous numerical simulations of double-peaked Type IIb supernova (SN IIb) light curves have demonstrated that the radius and mass of the hydrogen-rich envelope of the progenitor star can significantly influence the brightness and timescale of the early-time light curve around the first peak. In this study, we investigate how Thomson scattering and chemical mixing in the SN ejecta affect the optical light curves during the early stages of the SNe IIb using radiation hydrodynamics simulations. By comparing the results from two different numerical codes (i.e., STELLA and SNEC), we find that the optical brightness of the first peak can be reduced by more than a factor of 3 as a result of the effect of Thomson scattering that causes the thermalization depth to be located below the Rosseland mean photosphere, compared to the corresponding case where this effect is ignored. We also observe a short-lived plateau-like feature lasting for a few days in the early-time optical light curves of our models, in contrast to typical observed SNe IIb that show a quasi-linear decrease in optical magnitudes after the first peak. A significant degree of chemical mixing between the hydrogen-rich envelope and the helium core in SN ejecta is required to reconcile this discrepancy between the model prediction and observation. Meanwhile, to properly reproduce the first peak, a significant mixing of 56Ni into the hydrogen-rich outermost layers should be restricted. Our findings indicate that inferring the SN IIb progenitor structure from a simplified approach that ignores these two factors may introduce substantial uncertainty.

Rapid Optical Flares in the Blazar OJ 287 on Intraday Timescales with TESS

We have analyzed the optical light curves of the blazar OJ 287 obtained with the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite over about 80 days from 2021 October 13 to December 31, with an unprecedented sampling of 2 minutes. Although significant variability has been found during the entire period, we have detected two exceptional flares with flux nearly doubling and then nearly tripling over 2 days in the middle of 2021 November. We went through the light-curve analysis using the excess variance, generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram, and continuous autoregressive moving average methods and estimated the flux halving/doubling timescales. The most probable shortest variability timescale was found to be 0.38 days in the rising phase of the first flare. We briefly discuss some emission models for the variability in radio-loud active galactic nuclei that could be capable of producing such fast flares.

The active CGCG 077-102 NED02 galaxy within the Abell 2063 galaxy cluster

Context. Within the framework of investigating the link between the central super massive black holes in the cores of galaxies and the galaxies themselves, we detected a variable X-ray source in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02, which is a member of the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster of galaxies. Aims. Our goal is to combine X-ray and optical data to demonstrate that this object harbors an active super massive black hole in its core, and to relate this to the dynamical status of the galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster. Methods. We used Chandra and XMM-Newton archival data to derive the X-ray spectral shape and variability. We also obtained optical spectroscopy to detect the expected emission lines that are typically found in active galactic nuclei. Finally, we used public ZTF imaging data to investigate the optical variability. Results. There is no evidence of multiple X-ray sources or extended components within CGCG 077-102 NED02. Single X-ray spectral models fit the source well. We detect significant, nonrandom inter-observation 0.5–10 keV X-ray flux variabilities, for observations separated by ∼4 days for short-term variations and by up to ∼700 days for long-term variations. Optical spectroscopy points toward a passive galaxy for CGCG 077-102 NED01 and a Seyfert for CGCG 077-102 NED02. The classification of CGCG 077-102 NED02 is also consistent with its X-ray luminosity of over 1042 erg s−1. We do not detect short-term variability in the optical ZTF light curves. However, we find a significant long-term stochastic variability in the g-band that can be well described by the damped random walk model with a best-fit characteristic damping timescale of τDRW = 30−12+28 days. Finally, the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair is deeply embedded within the Abell 2063 potential, with a long enough history within this massive structure to have been affected by the influence of this cluster for a long time. Conclusions. Our observations point toward a moderately massive black hole in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02 of ∼106 M⊙. As compared to another similar pair in the literature, CGCG 077-102 NED02 is not heavily obscured, perhaps because of the surrounding intracluster medium ram-pressure stripping.

Predictions for electromagnetic counterparts to Neutron Star mergers discovered during LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA observing runs 4 and 5

ABSTRACT We present a comprehensive, configurable open-source software framework for estimating the rate of electromagnetic detection of kilonovae (KNe) associated with gravitational wave detections of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers. We simulate the current LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) observing run (O4) using current sensitivity and uptime values as well as using predicted sensitivites for the next observing run (O5). We find the number of discoverable kilonovae during LVK O4 to be ${ 1}_{- 1}^{+ 4}$ or ${ 2 }_{- 2 }^{+ 3 }$, (at 90 per cent confidence) depending on the distribution of NS masses in coalescing binaries, with the number increasing by an order of magnitude during O5 to ${ 19 }_{- 11 }^{+ 24 }$. Regardless of mass model, we predict at most five detectable KNe (at 95 per cent confidence) in O4. We also produce optical and near-infrared light curves that correspond to the physical properties of each merging system. We have collated important information for allocating observing resources for search and follow-up observations, including distributions of peak magnitudes in several broad-bands and time-scales for which specific facilities can detect each KN. The framework is easily adaptable, and new simulations can quickly be produced in response to updated information such as refined merger rates and NS mass distributions. Finally, we compare our suite of simulations to the thus-far completed portion of O4 (as of 2023, October 14), finding a median number of discoverable KNe of 0 and a 95 percentile upper limit of 2, consistent with no detections so far in O4.

A Possible Mechanism for the “Late Phase” in Stellar White-light Flares

M dwarf flares observed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) sometimes exhibit a peak-bump light-curve morphology, characterized by a secondary, gradual peak well after the main, impulsive peak. A similar late phase is frequently detected in solar flares observed in the extreme ultraviolet from longer hot coronal loops distinct from the impulsive flare structures. White-light emission has also been observed in off-limb solar flare loops. Here, we perform a suite of one-dimensional hydrodynamic loop simulations for M dwarf flares inspired by these solar examples. Our results suggest that coronal plasma condensation following impulsive flare heating can yield high electron number density in the loop, allowing it to contribute significantly to the optical light curves via free-bound and free–free emission mechanisms. Our simulation results qualitatively agree with TESS observations: the longer evolutionary timescale of coronal loops produces a distinct, secondary emission peak; its intensity increases with the injected flare energy. We argue that coronal plasma condensation is a possible mechanism for the TESS late-phase flares.

Rapid Evolution of the White Dwarf Pulsar AR Scorpii

Analysis of AR Sco optical light curves spanning 9 yr shows a secular change in the relative amplitudes of the beat pulse pairs generated by the two magnetic poles of its rotating white dwarf. Recent photometry now shows that the primary and secondary beat pulses have similar amplitudes, while in 2015 the primary pulse was approximately twice that of the secondary peak. The equalization in the beat pulse amplitudes is also seen in the linearly polarized flux. This rapid evolution is consistent with precession of the white dwarf spin axis. The observations imply that the pulse amplitudes cycle over a period of ≳40 yr but that the upper limit is currently poorly constrained. If precession is the mechanism driving the evolution, then over the next 10 yr the ratio of the beat pulse amplitudes will reach a maximum followed by a return to asymmetric beat pulses.