Operative Mortality In Patients Research Articles

Immediate rescue operations after failed diagnostic or therapeutic cardiac catheterization procedures

Although rare, life-threatening complications requiring emergency cardiac surgery do occur after diagnostic and therapeutic cardiac catheterization procedures. The operative mortality has been persistently reported to remain high. The purpose of this observational study was to evaluate and report the outcomes, with particular emphasis on early mortality, of these risky operations that were performed in a single highly specialized cardiac centre. Between June 1997 and August 2007, 100 consecutive patients, 13 after diagnostic complicated cardiac catheterization (0.038% of 34,193 angiographies) and 87 after crashed percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI; 0.56% of 15,544 PCIs), received emergency operations at the Feiring Heart Center. In the same period, 10,192 other patients underwent open cardiac surgery. Early outcome data were analysed and compared between the cohorts. Follow-up was 100% complete. The preoperative status of the 100 patients was that 4 had ongoing external cardiac massage, 24 were in cardiogenic shock, 32 had frank enduring ST-segment infarction but without shock and 40 had threatened acute myocardial infarction. There was 1% (1 patient) 30-day mortality in the study group, which is equal (0.9%, P=0.60) to that of all other operations. Postoperative myocardial infarction and prolonged ventilator use were significantly higher in the crash group, whereas the rate of stroke, renal failure, reopening for bleeding and mediastinitis were similar between the groups. With rapid transfer to an operation room, minimizing the time of warm myocardial ischaemia, and by performing complete coronary revascularization, it is possible to obtain equally low operative mortality in patients with life-threatening cardiac catheterization-associated complications, as is the case with open cardiac operations in general.

Asymptomatic Severe Aortic Stenosis with Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Watchful Waiting or Valve Replacement?

Aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common valvular heart disorder in older adults. Patients with severe AS are generally treated nonsurgically if asymptomatic and referred to aortic valve replacement when symptoms develop. However, patients with severe asymptomatic AS with left ventricular dysfunction may benefit from early aortic valve replacement. Although operative mortality in patients with severe AS and left ventricular dysfunction is greater than in patients with preserved left ventricular function, the overall mortality risk is substantially lower than that of watchful waiting. Operative risk in patients with severe AS and left ventricular dysfunction is often overestimated and, consequently, most are not referred to surgery despite clinical data in support of early aortic valve replacement. Asymptomatic patients with echocardiographic confirmation of severe AS and left ventricular dysfunction should be referred for aortic valve replacement.

Outcome after mitral valve replacement in patients with rheumatic mitral valve regurgitation and severe pulmonary hypertension

Objective The aim of this study was to assess the early outcome after elective mitral valve replacement (MVR) in patients with rheumatic mitral valve regurgitation and severe pulmonary arterial hypertension. Patients and methods The study included patients with baseline systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) of at least 40 mmHg who underwent elective MVR for rheumatic mitral valve regurgitation. The systemic and pulmonary hemodynamic changes and arterial blood gas parameters were reported at baseline, after intubation, after bypass, 30 min after extubation, and 24 and 48 h postoperatively. Preoperative and postoperative transthoracic echocardiography was performed. Results Thirty patients (11 men and 19 women), median age 31 years (range: 16-52), were included in the study. The operative mortality rate was 10%. The receiver operating characteristic curves identified sPAP as a good predictor of operative mortality. Postoperatively, there was a significant reduction in left atrial diameter and right ventricular systolic pressure in survivors. The median sPAP and pulmonary capillary wedge pressure decreased significantly after bypass and persisted throughout the study period. Central venous pressure decreased after cardiopulmonary bypass time and remained so for 48 h postoperatively. After intubation, on intermittent positive-pressure ventilation and FiO 2 of 1.0, there was a significant improvement in PaO 2 and SaO 2 . pH and HCO3 - concentration increased significantly postoperatively. ConclusionProper perioperative care and anesthetic techniques resulted in improved left atrial diameter, right ventricular systolic pressure, sPAP, pulmonary capillary wedge pressure, and oxygenation with reduced operative mortality in patients who underwent MVR for mitral valve regurgitation with severe pulmonary hypertension.

A new system to predict operative mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery: PCSS (Post Cardiac Surgery Scale)

Heredia Rodríguez, M.; Tamayo, E.; Monjas, P.; Gómez, E.; Gutiérrez, S.; Gómez-Herreras, J. I. Author Information

EComment. Postoperative bleeding without re-exploration may increase operative mortality

The article by Canadyova et al. [1] showed expected results in the area of re-exploration for bleeding in cardiac surgery, with an emphasis on the time to carry out the re-exploration for chest bleeding. Indeed, they found that a delay in re-exploration of > 12 h was associated with a worse clinical outcome and an increase in mortality. Similar results were displayed by Karthik et al. [2] after analysing a total of 2898 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). In addition to the considerations just mentioned, it is generally recognized that the in-hospital mortality is higher in patients requiring re-operation for bleeding than in those who do not. A meta-analysis by Metha et al. [3] evaluated 528 686 CABG patients in > 800 hospitals of the Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Database. They demonstrated a 4.5-fold higher operative mortality in patients undergoing revision for postoperative bleeding. This is understandable when one considers that the circumstances surrounding this scenario often involve more blood transfusions, a hypovolemic status, and systemic hypotension with all the catastrophic consequences such as secondary organ failure, especially renal and respiratory failure. Vivacqua et al. [4] found a direct relationship between the greater need of blood transfusion and the elevated mortality in patients re-explored for bleeding. Rather interesting data concerning the postoperative bleeding have been published by Christensen et al. [5]. Postoperative haemorrhage exceeding 200 ml/h in any single hour or part thereof, or 2 ml/kg/h for 2 consecutive hours in the first 6 hours after surgery, or > 495 ml in the first 24 hours was associated with a higher 30-day mortality and morbidity. It is important to underline the need to heighten awareness about postoperative bleeding, which may represent an increased risk in operative morbidity and mortality even when the patient does not require re-operation for bleeding.

Open vertical vein in non-obstructed supracardiac TAPVC: merits and fate

Data of 18 patients who underwent surgical repair of non-obstructed supracardiac total anomalous pulmonary venous connection between January 2007 and March 2011 were reviewed. The vertical vein was left patent in all patients as an elective surgical strategy. There was no operative mortality in patients with or without preoperative pulmonary infection, but there were significant differences in postoperative airway pressures, ventilation time, intensive care unit and hospital stay between the 2 groups. None of the patients demonstrated any flow in the vertical vein over a 30-day follow-up period. One patient had a mild anastomotic stricture and pulmonary venous hypoplasia. Operative repair of supracardiac total anomalous pulmonary venous connection can be carried out successfully without ligation of the vertical vein, and this strategy possibly reduces early postoperative morbidity and mortality, with no adverse effects detected in the short to midterm follow-up.

Predicting Mortality in High-Risk Coronary Artery Bypass: Surgeon Versus Risk Model

Risk models are useful in evaluating and comparing surgical outcomes, but surgeons may not always agree with the risk estimates derived from these models, particularly in high-risk cases. We examined the concordance between surgeons' and a risk model's predictions of operative mortality in high-risk coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) patients, and we attempted to identify the reasons for any discrepancies. From the Veterans Affairs Continuous Improvement in Cardiac Surgery Program (CICSP), a prospective database and cardiac surgery risk model, we obtained data regarding 181 high-risk, isolated CABG cases performed at a single institution between April 1998 and April 2008. Cases were considered high risk if the surgeon estimated the patient's operative mortality risk to be ≥ 10%. We compared the mortality predictions made by surgeons and the risk model by using the signed-rank test and investigated cases in which there was a significant discrepancy (at least 2-fold) between the two predictions. The observed 30-d/in-hospital and 180-d mortality rates were 6.1% (11/181) and 11.0% (20/181), respectively. The mean operative mortality prediction made by surgeons (12.0% ± 5.3%) was higher than that made by the risk model (7.5% ± 8.5%) (P < 0.001). There was significant discrepancy between the surgeon and risk model estimates in 62% (113/181) of cases. In 53% (60/113) of these cases, the surgeon reported having considered risk factors not included in the CICSP model, including (most commonly) possible need for an additional procedure (n = 15), compromised mobility (n = 11), liver disease (n = 9), hematologic or immunologic disease (n = 6), and quality of targets (n = 5). In high-risk CABG cases, surgeon and CICSP risk estimates often disagreed markedly, partly because some disease entities of concern to surgeons are not included in the risk model. The higher mortality risk estimated by the surgeons is a better reflection of the considerable mortality risk that extends up to 180 days after surgery.

Predictive Value of the Additive and Logistic EuroSCOREs in Patients Undergoing Aortic Valve Replacement

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs in predicting the operative mortality in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR) with or without coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. This was a single-center study performed in an educational hospital. All patients (n = 1,885) who underwent AVR with (n = 813) or without (n = 1,072) CABG surgery between 1998 and 2007. AVR with or without CABG surgery. Variable life-adjusted display curves were constructed to compare the observed operative mortality with the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to determine the discriminatory power of the additive and logistic EuroSCOREs. Calibration between the predicted and the observed operative mortality was checked by comparing the predicted probability of the mortality with the additive and logistic EuroSCORE. In the isolated AVR group, the additive EuroSCORE was 5.8% predicted mortality and the logistic EuroSCORE was 7.2%, whereas the observed operative mortality was 3.2%. In the AVR with CABG surgery group, the additive EuroSCORE was 7.2% and the logistic EuroSCORE was 8.8%, whereas the observed operative mortality was 5.3%. ROC curve analyses showed a high discriminatory power for both EuroSCOREs in both patient groups. Although the additive and the logistic EuroSCOREs had good discriminatory power, they were not able to predict the actual operative mortality accurately. Both EuroSCOREs overestimated the operative mortality, especially in low-risk patients.

Comparison of modern open infrarenal and pararenal abdominal aortic aneurysm repair on early outcomes and renal dysfunction at one year

This study was conducted to review contemporary results of elective open infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (IAAA) and pararenal abdominal aortic aneurysm (PAAA) repairs and determine predictors of death and acute and 1-year renal dysfunction (RD). A retrospective review identified 432 consecutive patients undergoing open IAAA (233 patients) or PAAA (184 patients) repair between January 2000 and December 2007. Demographic, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables were collected. RD was defined as an increase in creatinine of ≥ 0.5 mg/dL from baseline. Multiple logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of mortality and RD. Mortality rates were similar between the groups (3.9% IAAA and 6.0% PAAA). Preoperative coronary artery disease (CAD), postoperative myocardial infarction, or pulmonary complications were all strong predictors of operative mortality in patients undergoing repair of PAAAs and IAAAs. However, neither PAAA nor baseline renal insufficiency was an independent predictor of death. Postoperative RD occurred in 32% of patients after PAAA repairs compared with 13% of patients after IAAA repairs (P < .001). The presence of PAAA, baseline hypertension, and hyperlipidemia all correlated positively with postoperative RD, while a trend was noted with baseline renal insufficiency (P = .09). At the 1-year follow-up, 5.1% of patients in the PAAA group had RD compared with none in the IAAA group. Similarly, the serum creatinine level was significantly higher in the PAAA group (1.4 mg/dL vs 1.2 mg/dL, PAAA and IAAA, respectively; P = .02) at 1 year. However, there were no instances of new-onset hemodialysis dependence at 1 year. Mean follow-up was 2.2 years overall. Open PAAA repair can be performed without a significant increase in mortality compared to open IAAA repair. Although the incidence of renal function deterioration after open PAAA repairs remains higher than with open IAAA repairs, the overall incidence remains low at 1-year follow-up.

Cystic Lesions of the Pancreas: Changes in the Presentation and Management of 1,424 Patients at a Single Institution over a 15-Year Time Period

Cystic lesions of the pancreas are being identified more frequently, and a selective approach to resection is now recommended. The aim of this study was to assess the change in presentation and management of pancreatic cystic lesions evaluated at a single institution over 15 years. A prospectively maintained registry of patients evaluated between 1995 and 2010 for the ICD-9 diagnosis of pancreatic cyst was reviewed. The 539 patients managed from 1995 to 2005 were compared with the 885 patients managed from 2005 to 2010. A total of 1,424 patients were evaluated, including 1,141 with follow-up >6 months. Initial management (within 6 months of first assessment) was operative in 422 patients (37%) and nonoperative in 719 patients (63%). Operative mortality in patients initially submitted to resection was 0.7% (n = 3). Median radiographic follow-up in patients initially managed nonoperatively was 28 months (range 6 to 175 months). Patients followed radiographically were more likely to have cysts that were asymptomatic (72% versus 49%, p < 0.001), smaller (1.5 versus 3 cm, p < 0.001), without solid component (94% versus 68%, p < 0.001), and without main pancreatic duct dilation (88% versus 61%, p < 0.001). Changes prompting subsequent operative treatment occurred in 47 patients (6.5%), with adenocarcinoma identified in 8 (17%) and pancreatic endocrine neoplasm in 4 (8.5%). Thus, of the 719 patients initially managed nonoperatively, invasive malignancy was identified in 12 (1.7%), with adenocarcinoma seen in 1.1%. Cystic lesions of the pancreas are being identified more frequently, yet are less likely to present with concerning features of malignancy. Carefully selected patients managed nonoperatively had a risk of malignancy that was equivalent to the risk of operative mortality in those patients who initially underwent resection.

Endoscopic Ultrasound for Early Stage Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: Implications for Staging and Survival

Patients often receive induction therapy based on endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-identified nodal spread (N1) or deep tumor invasion (T3), although controversy exists regarding the role of induction therapy for early stage disease. We aim to evaluate the reliability of EUS in identifying early stage disease and the subsequent impact on treatment and outcomes. We retrospectively studied 149 patients who underwent EUS and esophagectomy for adenocarcinoma between January 2000 and December 2008. Computed tomography (CT) was performed in all patients, whereas positron emission tomography (PET) was performed in 91%. Clinical stage (c), pathologic stage (p), operative mortality, and survival were recorded. Unanticipated pathologic nodal disease was similar in patients with cT1N0 and cT2N0 tumors (6/25 [24%] versus 7/18 [38.8%]; p=0.6). Among the 18 cases of cT2N0 disease, 9 (50%) were pathologically staged as T1N0, 8 (44%) were upstaged to pT3N0-1, and 1 (6%) was pT2N0. One case of cT1N0 tumor (4%) was upstaged to pT3N0. Among patients with cT1-2N0 tumors, 5-year disease-free survival for the group that was appropriately staged was 89.8% versus 39.9% for the group that had a higher pathologic stage than their clinical stage (ie, >T2N0) (p<0.001). Operative mortality for patients with cT1-2N0 tumors was 0/43 (0%), which was no different from that in the higher clinical stage groups with (1/37, 2.7%) or without (2/68, 2.9%) induction therapy (p=0.5). Multivariate analysis identified marked/intense uptake on staging PET (odds ratio, 5.76, 95%; confidence interval, 1.25 to 26.52; p=0.021) to be a factor predictive of upstaging of cT1-2N0 tumors. Current staging techniques are inadequate for predicting T1-2N0 disease in esophageal adenocarcinoma. Survival is excellent with operation alone in patients with tumors appropriately staged as T1-2N0, although patients with tumors upstaged to greater than T2N0 have significantly worse survival. Other preoperative factors such as PET uptake may help select patients with cT1-2N0 tumors that will be upstaged at resection.

Comparison of Morbidity and Mortality in Diabetics Versus Nondiabetics Having Isolated Coronary Bypass Versus Coronary Bypass plus Valve Operations Versus Isolated Valve Operations

The impact of diabetes mellitus (DM) on the outcome of patients requiring cardiac surgery has been investigated in previous decades. However, the profile of cardiac surgical practice is changing in addition to changes in patients' risk profile, making the results inconclusive. In this study we sought to investigate the impact of DM on operative mortality and morbidity in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and adjust for patient and disease characteristics. In total 10,709 patients (9,229 nondiabetics and 1,480 diabetics) were admitted to the study; 5,557 patients (1,012 diabetics) underwent an isolated coronary operation, 1,775 patients (278 diabetics) underwent coronary plus valve operations, and 3,337 patients (209 diabetics) underwent valve operations. To control for differences in patient and disease characteristics, a propensity score (for DM) was performed. DM increased crude morbidity and this difference was maintained after risk adjustment for propensity score; conversely, the crude operative mortality risk was higher in diabetics but not significantly after adjustment for propensity score. Thereafter, DM remained independently associated to operative mortality risk in the valve population only (odds ratio 2.53, 95% confidence interval 1.45 to 4.4, p = 0.001). In conclusion, DM has a significant impact on operative mortality of patients undergoing heart valve surgery. Although diabetic patients undergoing coronary operations are not at increased risk of operative mortality, morbidity is significantly affected in the overall population.

Factors that predict operative mortality in patients with empyemas

Factors that predict operative mortality in patients with empyemas

The Impact of Moderate–to–End-Stage Renal Failure on Outcomes After Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Currently, established renal failure is a well-recognized risk factor for operative mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. The authors aimed to establish the relative impact of dialysis-dependent renal failure (DRF) and nondialysis-dependent renal failure (NDRF) on early and late outcome after CABG surgery. A retrospective cohort study. A single teaching hospital. The authors analyzed prospectively collected data from 2,960 adult patients who underwent isolated CABG surgery between 1998 and 2006 at the authors' institution, according to whether they had preoperative NDRF based on preoperative creatinine >2.5 mg/dL, DRF, or neither (controls). CABG surgery. Outcome measures included hospital mortality, postoperative complications, length of stay, and survival. Hospital mortality was 1.8% (n = 52). Patients in the NDRF and DRF groups had a significantly increased mortality (8.3%, n = 13) compared with the control group (1.4%, n = 39), and both NDRF (odds ratio [OR] = 6.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.3-16.5; p < 0.001) and DRF (OR = 4.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-10.0; p = 0.004) were found to be independent predictors of operative mortality. The overall mean follow-up was 3.9 +/- 2.5 years. Multivariate analysis revealed DRF (OR = 5.1) to be an independent predictor of late mortality after cardiac surgery, whereas NDRF was not found to be an independent predictor of late mortality. Preoperative renal failure is an independent risk factor for adverse early and late outcomes after CABG surgery. NDRF is associated with increased hospital mortality and major morbidity compared with patients with lesser degrees of renal dysfunction, but also compared with DRF patients.

SHA 67. Accuracy of surgical scores for prediction of operative mortality in patients undergoing transapical aortic valve implantation?

SHA 67. Accuracy of surgical scores for prediction of operative mortality in patients undergoing transapical aortic valve implantation?

Impact of Public Reporting on Access to Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery: The California Outcomes Reporting Program

California launched the coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) Outcomes Reporting Program in 2003 for all nonfederal hospitals performing this procedure. The program provides annual public reports of risk-adjusted operative mortality rates by hospital and surgeon. However, the impact of this program on operative mortality and access to surgery for high-risk patients has not been clarified. The cohort consisted of all isolated CABG cases from the California CABG Outcomes Reporting Program database for 2003 and 2006. We applied the same multivariable logistic risk adjustment model to each year to compute predicted and risk-adjusted operative mortality for isolated CABG by hospital and surgeons. Changes in surgical volume and observed, predicted, and risk-adjusted operative mortality were compared by quintiles of patients based on the predicted risk and among hospitals and surgeons between 2003 and 2006. Total volume of isolated CABG decreased by 26.5% from 2003 (N=21,276) to 2006 (N=15,647). The reduction in CABG volume between 2003 and 2006 was universal among hospitals and surgeons regardless of their performance status in 2003. The change in patient case mix for a majority of hospitals and surgeons was insignificant, and overall patient risk was stable (statewide predicted operative mortality rate for 2003, 3.06%; 95% confidence interval, 2.98 to 3.13; and for 2006, 3.05%; 95% confidence interval, 2.97 to 3.14). Yet, the statewide observed mortality declined from 2.90% in 2003 to 2.22% in 2006 (p=0.0001). Overall, the empiric odds ratio of operative death for 2006 patients was 24% lower than for 2003 patients. In 2006, patients with the highest predicted operative mortality risk (4th and 5th quintiles) had 35% and 26% lower odds of operative mortality, respectively, when compared with patients from 2003. Although total CABG volume decreased from 2003 to 2006 by almost 27%, patient case mix for most hospitals and surgeons was unchanged. Despite similar patient characteristics, the operative mortality for patients in the highest risk group was 26% lower in 2006 than in 2003. We found no evidence of decreased access to CABG for high-risk patients in California during the period of public reporting of isolated CABG outcomes.

Predicting operative mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery

Lawrence and colleagues have highlighted the inadequacies and pitfalls of risk scores in predicting operative mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery. The dominance of coronary artery system, the degree of luminal obstruction, the number of diseased coronary vessels and calcification of coronaries and the aorta should be taken into consideration in the risk stratification of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The above points are addressed in the SYNTAX scoring system (developed in May 2009),1–3 which is a unique scoring system to assess the severity and the anatomical complexity of coronary artery disease and provides a guide to revascularisation options to the cardiologists. Incorporating the SYNTAX score into the Euroscore will provide an additive value in predicting outcome after CABG.

The analysis about the clinical prognosis of 90 patients with blunt hepatic injuries after surgieal management

Objective To analysis the risk factors determining operativc mortality in blunt hepatic injuries. Methods This was a retrospective case study of 90 patients with blunt hepatic injuries managed operatively. Statistical analysis was performed using univariate analysis logistic regression. Results The overall operative mortality was 16% ,and 14 patients died with 1 in grade Ⅲ ,4 in grade Ⅳ ,9 in grade Vand 11 cases in liver related cause( 12% ) and 3 in not liver related cause(3% ). Univariate comparison of clinical factors between nonsurvivors and survivors in grade Ⅳ- Ⅴ indicated: systolic blood pressure, pulse, injury severity sore ( ISS), total intraoperative blood loss and hospital days were significant between two groups. Comparison of surgical treatment of severe hepatic injuries indicated: relative hazard ratio (HR) of debridement hepatectomy was 0. 73, and the operative mortality was low. HR of anatomical hepatectomy and venorrhaphy of major hepatic vein and retrohepatic vena cava were 1.32 and 1.52 respectively,and the operative mortality was high, Conclusion Expeditious resuscitation and appropriate surgical management, to control operative blood loss, are helpful to reduce operative mortality in patients with blunt hepatic trauma. Key words: Blunt hepatic injuries; Surgical management; Operative mortality

330 Accuracy of surgical scores for prediction of operative mortality in patients undergoing transapical aortic valve implantation?

Risk assessment for patients undergoing transapical aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is currently performed with the EuroSCORE and STS-PROM risk algorithms. None of these scores were designed for a TAVI population. To demonstrate their accuracy, both scores were compared to the real outcome in patients undergoing TAVI. 33 patients underwent TAVI using the Edwards Sapien bioprosthesis between September 2007, and April 2009 due to contraindications of conventional surgery and/or high operative risk. Mean age was 81 ± 9.8 Years, and 40% were female. Mean STS and EuroSCORE were 21% and 28.6%, respectively. Multiple variables were used in the calculation of the EuroScore and the STS-PROM algorithms including chronic lung disease (24%), renal Failure (36.4%), cancer (27.3%), neurological dysfunction (12%), peripheral arteriopathy (69.7%), previous cardiac surgery (42.4%), Diabetes (30%), severe pulmonary hypertension ≥ 60 mmHg (18.2%), moderate LV dysfunction EF≤50% (54.6%), and LVEF ≤ 30% (21.2%). Certain variables do not figure in the algorithm as porcelain aorta (39.4%) and mediastinal irradiation (6%). Observed in-hospital death was 18.2%. The actual and predicted mortality were compared. Operative mortality (30 days) = 5 patients (15.6%). An additional 4 patients (12.1%) died during the follow-up study period of 587days (mean 324 ± 164). Overall mortality = 9 patients (27.3%). Both the STS and EuroSCORE failed to demonstrate significant correlation with predicted operative mortality (p=0.145 and 0.875, respectively). The STS algorithm seems more accurate in estimating the operative mortality in TAVI patients. Current surgical scores correlate poorly with the observed outcome. Refining these scores for high risk patients requiring aortic valve surgery may improve patient selection for TAVI.

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) is not appropriate for withholding surgery in high-risk patients with aortic stenosis: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundThe European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) is a widely used risk assessment tool in patients with severe aortic stenosis to determine operability and to select patients for alternative therapies such as transcatheter aortic valve implantation. The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of the EuroSCORE in predicting mortality following aortic valve replacement (AVR).MethodsThe logistic EuroSCORE was determined for all consecutive patients that underwent conventional AVR between 1995 and 2005 at our institution. Provincial Vital Statistics were used to determine all-cause mortality. The accuracy of the prognostic risk prediction provided by logistic EuroSCORE was assessed by comparing observed and expected operative mortality.ResultsDuring the study period, a total of 1,421 patients underwent AVR including 237 patients (16.7%) that had a logistic EuroSCORE > 20. Among these patients, the mean predicted operative mortality was 38.7% (SD = 18.1). The actual mortality of these patients was significantly lower than that predicted by EuroSCORE (11.4% vs. 38.7%, observed/expected ratio 0.29, 95% CI 0.15–0.52, P < 0.05). The EuroSCORE overestimated mortality within all strata of predicted risk. Although medium-term mortality is significantly higher among patients with EuroSCORE > 20 (log rank P = 0.0001), approximately 60% are alive at five years.ConclusionActual operative mortality in patients undergoing AVR is significantly lower than that predicted by the logistic EuroSCORE. Additionally, medium-term survival following AVR is acceptable in high-risk patients with EuroSCORE > 20. More accurate risk prediction models are needed for risk-stratifying patients with severe aortic stenosis.