Open-seat Contests Research Articles

More Electoral Competition Without More Voter Participation: Quasi-Experimental Test of a Term Limit Reform in Ecuador

Term limits are theoretically expected to boost voter participation which has been confirmed by multiple empirical examinations. This study uses a robust causal assessment within the difference-in-differences framework to evaluate this hypothesis. It leverages an exogenous 2018 term limit reform in Ecuador which prohibited some, but not all, incumbent mayors from running in elections. Contrary to expectations, the results indicate null findings: the adoption of term limits has neither increased turnout, nor depressed the casting of blank and spoiled ballots (alternative indicators of voter engagement under compulsory voting). This is puzzling given that the reform impacted the electoral competition by significantly increasing the number of mayoral candidates in the newly open-seat contests. Two possible solutions to the puzzle of the null findings are presented with implications for understanding the scope conditions for the effect of term limits on voter participation.

Candidate quality and US Senate elections

ABSTRACTWe find that candidate quality is a key determinant of US Senate election outcomes. We model the results for the last 10 US Senate election cycles, from 2012 back to 1994, for a total of 345 election contests. For the contests where an incumbent seeks re-election, a quality challenger can significantly diminish the advantage that usually attaches to incumbency. For the open-seat contests, which tend to be more competitive, candidate quality can swing a close election. Governors who seek election to the US Senate receive the largest boost, as indicated by our candidate-quality variables vector. Wave effects and presidential coattail effects are also shown to be contributing factors in certain cases.

Constituency Congruency and Candidate Competition in Primary Elections for the U.S. House

AbstractPrevious research has largely concluded that House elections have become less competitive in the modern era. Our research examines one area where we expect to observe more competition—namely, primary elections. In this article, we investigate when and where a state legislator will emerge to run in a congressional primary. All else equal, we expect that state legislators who can carry a large portion of their old state reelection constituency to the “geographic” congressional constituency will be more likely to emerge and receive a higher vote share in the election. Using geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, we are able to derive a measure of constituency congruency by focusing on the degree of intersection between state legislative and congressional districts. Our results indicate that state legislators are more likely to emerge in a primary if constituency congruency is high, especially in open seat contests. Congruency does not appear to provide an electoral advantage at the polls.

The 2011 Portuguese Presidential Elections: Incumbency Advantage in Semi-presidentialism?

The 2011 Portuguese presidential election resulted in a comfortable victory for the incumbent president, Cavaco Silva, an outcome consistent with the notion of substantial incumbency advantages. However, as this article demonstrates, the Portuguese case is part of a broader pattern, with semi-presidentialism in post-war Western Europe generating a considerable pro-incumbency bias in presidential elections. Using the Portuguese elections as a case study, it is found that this advantage derives not only from the direct benefits of holding office, but also from an indirect effect of incumbency on the quality of challengers. In particular, the average quality of challengers is significantly lower in elections with an incumbent than in open-seat contests.

Equality of recruitment: Gender parity in French National Assembly elections

This research centers on the effects of the newly mandated gender parity on French electoral politics. We examine the results from the 2002 National Assembly elections. Our findings suggest that this Parity Law contributed to the modest increase in the number of female deputies elected to the National Assembly, but that the electoral success rate for female candidates declined from the previous elections in 1997. This result appears to have been affected by two factors: (1) a greater-than-average number of female candidates were affiliated with the Socialist party—the party that lost control of the government in this election and (2) many female candidates were running against male incumbents. Multivariate analysis suggests that, after these two factors are controlled for, female candidates were more likely to be elected in open seat contests than were male candidates. Preliminary analysis of roll call votes in the two most recent (1997–2004) legislative sessions suggests that party, not gender, is the main determinant of voting behavior.

Vacancies on the Bench: Open-Seat Elections for State Supreme Courts

This article examines the dynamics of state supreme court elections in which no incumbent is present; that is, open-seat contests. Although incumbent judges generally are able to win whenever they seek reelection, what factors affect elections when no incumbent is present? Do both candidates have an equal chance of winning the seat? Do candidate-specific factors, such as quality and campaign spending, have more of an effect on the level of electoral support in these races compared with incumbent-challenger contests? Finally, how do institutional arrangements condition these other factors? In open-seat elections to state supreme courts from 1990 to 2000 in all states that have partisan or nonpartisan elections, winning candidates almost invariably have prior judicial experience, and if they do not, they have run against opponents who also lack such experience. Losing candidates also could have improved their chances of winning simply by spending more money. Finally, institutional arrangements, such as the nature of the electoral constituency and the term of office, also matter. In sum, the outcomes of open-seat elections are determined by characteristics of the candidates, the electoral context, the value of the seat, and institutional arrangements.

The Effects Of Primary Divisiveness On General Election Outcomes In State Legislative Elections

Does a divisive primary contest harm a candidate’s chances in the general election? This question is addressed in an analysis of legislative campaigns in nine states during the 1994 and 1996 election cycles. Findings indicate that primary divisiveness does affect general election outcomes but in the opposite direction than anticipated. Greater divisiveness in a candidate’s primary leads to a higher vote share in the general election. Similarly, greater divisiveness in a general election opponent’s primary leads to a candidate receiving a lower vote share. Simply the presence of a primary challenge is found to exert a substantial positive influence for a candidate in the general election, particularly in open seat contests. Such counterintuitive results are attributed to the low levels of information that voters typically possess about state legislative primaries and to the strategic decisions of candidates who seek legislative office.

A Comparison of National Effects on Individual U.S. Senate Elections

In this article a second look is taken at the effect that national conditions have on individual U.S. Senate elections. In doing so, the effects that presidential popularity, aggregate national economic conditions, and short‐term party evaluations have had on individual Senate contests from 1980 through 1996 are examined. In addition to assessing the comparative influence of these national factors, consideration is given to the question of whether open seat contests should be included in the same models as Senate races where the incumbent is seeking reelection. Analyses of results for national, state, and candidate data provide strong evidence that incumbent and open seat elections are sufficiently different in that each merit their own model rather than being included in the same one. In contests where incumbents are seeking reelection, national economic conditions are the dominant national influence on individual Senate races. By contrast, national factors play a very limited role in open seat contests.

Political Experience and Fundraising in City Council Elections

Objective. Despite lack of attention from urban scholars, candidates' fundraising is a critical component of electoral politics in cities. In this research I evaluate the degree to which candidates' political experience is related to fundraising in city council elections. Methods. Multivariate regression is used to test models of city council fundraising in Chicago and Los Angeles. Results. In both cities, fundraising is a function of incumbency and prior experience as a political staff aide. Political endorsements are also important, especially those that come from incumbent politicians. The competitive environment also matters, as nonincumbents in open seat contests raise more than those who challenge incumbents. Conclusions. Fundraising in city council elections is shaped most notably by a combination of political experience and elite endorsements. For nonincumbents, the importance of prior experience on a political staff suggests a certain career trajectory for those seeking city council seats.

The Electoral Fortunes of Women Candidates for Congress

Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain why women remain underrepresented in Congress. One of those hypotheses is that some voters have blatant prejudices against women politicians, while others hold stereotypes about men and women politicians that favor men. In contrast, others claim that women candidates for Congress actually have an advantage in running for office because voters prefer women politicians. We test those hypotheses using pooled 1988, 1990, and 1992 National Election Studies data and the pooled 1988-1992 Senate Election Study and building on Krasno's (1994) model of voter choice in House and Senate elections. We find evidence that some voters prefer women candidates in House races, but not in Senate races. The advantage for women candidates in races with a challenger and incumbent is slight and can be attributed to the strong support of well-educated women voters. An advantage for women candidates is more pronounced in open-seat contests. In open-seat races, women voters, regardless of their education levels, more strongly support women candidates. Overall, candidate sex was not significant to male voters.

Candidate status, presidential approval, and voting for US senator

This research tests whether the effects of assessments of presidential performance on the senate voting decision are largest for out-party incumbents and smaller for out-party incumbents and candidates in open-seat contests, a pattern suggested by the restricted in-party culpability thesis. Analysis of data from the 1988–1990–1992 Pooled Senate Election Study reveals that the effects of appraisals of presidential performance are greatest in open-seat contests and those with in-party incumbents, contrary to the restricted in-party culpability thesis. For incumbents of the out-party and candidates in open-seat contests, the effects of assessments of presidential performance are principally a function of the competitiveness of the contest. Assessments of presidential performance shape the voting decision in contests with in-party incumbents regardless of the level of electoral competitiveness.

If Men Stayed Home ... The Gender Gap in Recent Congressional Elections

Inclusion of sex along with the core elements of the New Deal coalition has become more common in group-based analyses of partisan and vot ing blocs since 1980. We focus on the impact of sex on party identifica tion and congressional voting at both the individual and aggregate level; special attention is paid to the 1994 midterm. Using data from the Na tional Elections Studies (1980-1996), we show that like men, women in the total electorate were more likely to identify as Republicans in 1994 than at any other time. Although significant and stronger than in the past, the influence of sex on an individual's party loyalty still trailed that of membership in other groups. However, at the aggregate level, sex dif ferences were clearly the most powerful force in shaping the balance of partisan identification. The evidence also shows that women's alleged low turnout did not account for the 1994 outcome. Differences in congres sional voting behavior between women and men are observed most clearly in off-year, open-seat contests when the effects of incumbency and presi dential coattails are absent.

Multiple Newspapers and Electoral Competition: A County-Level Analysis

Although recent research has explored the impact of newspaper competition on public awareness and public opinion diversity, the effect on electoral competition has not been examined. This study hypothesizes that the presence of multiple newspapers in a county increases the competitiveness of election results in that county. That relationship is established after controlling for socioeconomic diversity and for political factors that affect election outcomes. The effects in gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races and in re-election and open-seat contests are compared. The study also discusses the possibility that the effect of newspaper competition on electoral outcomes works through an impact on public discourse.

The 1986 Midterm Elections for Governor and State Legislatures: A Modest Departure From Past Patterns

The 1986 midterm election results departed from the normal pattern in which the president's party loses governorships and control of a significant number of state legislative chambers. For the first time since World War II, the presidential party scored a net gain in governors. At the same time, it sustained only minor losses in the legislatures. The election was unusual in the degree to which national forces, which normally work to the disadvantage of the president's party, were neutralized. The exposure/base year variable and the large number of open-seat contests worked to produce a high level of partisan change among the governorships. The absence of a strong national trend, coupled with the increasing institutionalization of state legislatures, worked against partisan change in the legislatures. National party involvement in state elections increased and is resulting in more integrated party structures.

Campaign activities and state election outcomes

This research first clusters campaign activities in state legislative elections into five empirically justified and conceptually meaningful clusters: direct attempts to persuade voters, obtaining the support of other elites, attempts to increase turnout, seeking endorsements from other political officials, and fund raising. Indices created from these clusters are then compared to the situational factors of incumbency and competition as predictors of election outcomes. Data are surveys of candidates for the Louisiana legislature in which they were asked about the conduct of their campaigns and their relative emphasis on various activities. Incumbency was by far the best predictor of what percentage of the vote a candidate obtained, and in open seat contests, expenditures and competition best predicted outcome. Overall, the campaign activities had very little relationship to outcome when controlling for situational factors. Variations occurred between the House and Senate races with implications for challengers' strategies and campaign financing.