Ongoing Climate Change Research Articles

The Impact of Climatic Changes on Forage Pea (Pisum sativum var. arvense) Production

The yield of agricultural crops is significantly influenced by climatic factors. This impact has been intensified as a result of rapid changes in agroclimatic indicators. These factors are constantly changing. Climate indicators such as temperature, precipitation amount and distribution, snowfall amount and duration, have shown significant changes over the past decades. The sustainability of agricultural farms can only be positive by treating them as sustainable agroecosystems. Technologies and agricultural practices need to be harmonized with ongoing climate changes. The study is based on a multi-year analysis of climatic indicators in the Korça region, examining the impact of these changes on morphological, physiological, and production of the forage pea "Voskopoja." Climatic changes was reflected in significant changes in green mass yield, seed numbers per pod and seed weight per pod (g) and seed yield. Climatic changes was not reflected in significant changes in the number of pods per plant and the weight of 1,000 seeds. Climate change showed significant effects on seed protein content and protein yield. Prcentage of protein content in seeds was higher in the year with the lowest amount of rainfall and the highest temperature of the April-June period. Protein yield (kg/ha) was the highest in the year with the greatest amount of rainfall and the lowest temperature of the April-June period. The experimental conclusions are based on the statistical analysis of variance between different climatic indicators and productivity.

A specialist predator in a food web with cyclic alternative prey: The gyrfalcon-ptarmigan case revisited.

Population dynamics of specialist predators are tightly linked to their main prey and can in simple food webs lead to complex predator-prey interactions (e.g. predator-prey cycles). However, the strength of these interactions may be affected by the availability of alternative prey if it appears in high numbers and the predator diet is sufficiently flexible. A prominent example of a specialist predator-prey interaction is the interaction between gyrfalcon and ptarmigan known from simple food webs with few alternative preys. Here we use a 23-year long time series from a more complex food web in northern Fennoscandia to investigate the relative roles of main (ptarmigan) and cyclically fluctuating alternative prey (lemmings) in driving gyrfalcon nesting territory occupancy and production of young. We find that nesting territory occupancy dynamics are dependent on both main and alternative prey, while fledgling production within occupied territories is independent of prey abundance dynamics. Population density of willow ptarmigan had the expected direct and delayed effect on gyrfalcon territory occupancy dynamics, while one high-amplitude lemming population peak year in the time series boosted colonization of nesting territories. This study demonstrates that the population dynamics of alternative prey can play an important role for specialist predators. While it might be uplifting that the gyrfalcons, being a regionally red listed species, seem to be able to consume alternative prey, both ptarmigan and lemmings are negatively impacted by ongoing climate change. Hence, the population status of gyrfalcon should still be a conservation concern.

Seasonal and spatial transitions in phytoplankton assemblages spanning estuarine to open ocean waters of the tropical Pacific

AbstractIslands in the tropical Pacific supply elevated nutrients to nearshore waters that enhance phytoplankton biomass and create hotspots of productivity in otherwise nutrient‐poor oceans. Despite the importance of these hotspots in supporting nearshore food webs, the spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton enhancement and changes in the underlying phytoplankton communities across nearshore to open ocean systems remain poorly understood. In this study, a combination of flow cytometry, pigment analyses, 16S rRNA gene amplicons, and metagenomic sequencing provides a synoptic view of phytoplankton dynamics over a 4‐yr, near‐monthly time series across coastal Kāneʻohe Bay, Hawaiʻi, spanning from an estuarine Indigenous aquaculture system to the adjacent offshore environment. Through comparisons with measurements taken at Station ALOHA located in the oligotrophic North Pacific Subtropical Gyre, we observed a sharp and persistent transition between picocyanobacterial communities, from Synechococcus clade II abundant in the nearshore to Prochlorococcus high‐light adapted clade II (HLII) proliferating in offshore and open ocean waters. In comparison to immediately adjacent offshore waters and the surrounding open ocean, phytoplankton biomass within Kāneʻohe Bay was dramatically elevated. Members of the phytoplankton community revealed strong seasonal patterns, while nearshore phytoplankton biomass positively correlated with wind speed, rainfall, and wind direction, and not water temperatures. These findings elucidate the spatiotemporal dynamics underlying transitions in ocean biogeochemistry and phytoplankton dynamics across estuarine to open ocean waters in the tropical Pacific and provide a foundation for quantifying deviations from baseline conditions due to ongoing climate change.

Biological Impacts of Climate Change on Sea Turtles: A Review

Climate change poses significant threats to sea turtle populations, affecting reproduction, migration, and survival. This review explores the impacts of rising global temperatures, greenhouse gas emissions, and oceanic disruptions on these species. Elevated sand temperatures result in female-biased sex ratios, jeopardizing genetic diversity and long-term population stability. Rising sea levels and extreme weather events further reduce available nesting sites, while altered ocean currents disrupt migratory routes and food availability, endangering species viability. To mitigate these effects, robust conservation strategies are essential, including nesting site protection, sand temperature regulation, and bycatch reduction. Policies aimed at habitat preservation and carbon emission reduction are also critical for enhancing species resilience. Future research should prioritize adaptive strategies to ensure population sustainability in the face of ongoing climate change. This review emphasizes the urgency of integrated conservation efforts to safeguard these ecologically vital marine reptiles.

Physiological responses of scleractinian coral to trace metal enrichment and thermal stress.

Physiological responses of scleractinian coral to trace metal enrichment and thermal stress.

Synergistic effects of habitat composition and weather on reproduction of a sharply declining farmland bird in Central Europe

ContextAgricultural landscapes across Europe have undergone significant transformation due to intensification and land-use changes, resulting in habitat loss and reduced biodiversity. Simultaneously, climate change has intensified extreme weather events, further exacerbating the decline of sensitive farmland species.ObjectivesWe assessed the effects of habitat composition, weather conditions and their interaction, on the reproductive success of the grey partridge (Perdix perdix). We aimed to identify factors that hinder successful reproduction and are important for conservation considerations. Our model species is a widespread farmland bird that is particularly sensitive to habitat change and weather.MethodsUsing open-source data spanning 13 years (2011–2023) across the Czech Republic, a central European country with a highly intensified farmland, we applied generalized linear mixed models to assess the influence of habitat and weather conditions on partridge reproductive success at a landscape scale.ResultsMosaics of herb-dominated vegetation, including grasslands and unmanaged wastelands near human settlements, significantly increased the probability of successful breeding of partridges. Conversely, diversity of broad land-use types reduced breeding success. Adverse weather, such as heavy rainfall in May, was also detrimental to the species’ reproduction, however, positive interaction of habitat diversity and rainfall in May suggest their synergistic effect.ConclusionsOur results highlight the importance of habitat and weather considerations in conservation strategies for farmland birds. As ongoing climate change is likely to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, improving habitat quality by supporting herbaceous vegetation and promoting agri-environmental measures more widely are essential for the conservation of grey partridges and other sensitive species.

Invasive plant Lupinus polyphyllus demonstrates high level of molecular genetic variation within and between populations at East European Plain

Genetic polymorphism of alien species in their secondary ranges is an important evidence of invasive process course. In this paper, we studied a molecular genetic variation of Lupinus polyphyllus Lindl. at geographically extensive material from different parts of its secondary distribution range at East European Plain and a contribution of L. polyphyllus to natural vegetation there. Genetic variation was studied on nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer sequences ITS1–2, chloroplast intergenic spacer rpl32–trnL sequences, and on inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers. ITS1–2 sequences were non-informative markers of intra-species variability for L. polyphyllus. In the phylogenetic tree on the base of chloroplast rpl32–trnL sequences no geographical trend was revealed among and within the three major clades and subclades but sufficient level of intra-population variability was detected. ISSR sequences of 38 individuals demonstrated statistically significant among-individual variation both within local populations and among local populations. The latter was the only significant factor of sample differentiation in the reduced ordination space at two spatial scales: among the local populations (ANOSIM test, R = 0.33, p < 0.01) as well as among the enlarged locations consisting of the neighboring populations (R = 0.26, p < 0.01). All investigated populations of L. polyphyllus at East European Plain invaded anthropogenically disturbed habitats, with present or former settlement activity. The revealed genetic variability of specimens at the lowest spatial scale may be a cue for a high invasion potential of L. polyphyllus in the studied part of the secondary range at ongoing climatic changes.

Big projects, political ambitions and preparing for the green energy transition - the North Sea Energy Island in Denmark

The EU Green Deal calls for a rapid and efficient green transition. On-going climate change and an increasing need for secure and sustainable energy means ambitious projects and goals are accelerated. To expand and exchange offshore wind energy across North Sea neighbouring countries, the Danish government presented in 2020 the Danish North Sea Energy Island (NSEI) project. This pilot project illustrates the shift from ‘nationally individualistic’ modes of connecting offshore wind energy projects, to supplying a multi-lateral renewable offshore energy grid. The Energy Island project builds on the Hub-and-Spoke (H&S) approach, which introduces a new level of complexity to governing the next generation of offshore wind energy projects. This paper analyses the political motivations for the Danish project and the planning and implementation of the Energy Islands, integrating a combination of collaborative and transboundary governance perspectives. The qualitative analysis is based on a document analysis and a literature review. Findings show how planning for the Danish Energy Island has faced delays and challenges, causing uncertainties about the Island’s capability to support Green Deal goals, as well as a mismatch between political ambitions and practical implementation. The artificial offshore island is currently under reconsideration due to costs and is, as of March 2024, still in its planning phase. This case study on the Danish NSEI serves as an introduction to the general functionalities and development of the Island and defines a Danish Energy Island. Results indicate that the combination of transboundary and collaborative governance structures are necessary as part of a successful implementation of Energy Islands.

Responses of Terrestrial Water Storage to Climate Change in the Closed Alpine Qaidam Basin

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the Qaidam Basin in western China is highly sensitive to climate change. The GRACE mascon products provide variations of TWS anomalies (TWSAs), greatly facilitating the exploration of water storage dynamics. However, the main meteorological factors affecting the TWSA dynamics in this region need to be comprehensively investigated. In this study, variations in TWSAs over the Qaidam Basin from 2002 to 2024 were analyzed using three GRACE mascon products with CSR, JPL, and GSFC. The groundwater storage anomalies (GWAs) were extracted through GRACE and GLDAS products. The impact of meteorological elements on TWSAs and GWAs was identified. The results showed that the GRACE mascon products showed a significant increasing trend with a rate of 0.51 ± 0.13 mm per month in TWSAs across the entire basin from 2003 to 2016. The groundwater part accounted for the largest proportion and was the main contributor to the increase in TWS for the entire basin. In addition to the dominant role of precipitation, other meteorological elements, particularly air humidity and solar radiation, were also identified as important contributors to TWSA and GWA variations. This study highlighted the climatic effect on water storage variations, which have important implications for local water resource management and ecological conservation under ongoing climate change.

Structure and dynamics of secondary and mature rainforests: insights from South Asian long-term monitoring plots

ABSTRACT Background Tropical forests play a critical role in global biodiversity conservation and carbon storage. In human-modified landscapes, secondary forests are becoming increasingly common, yet their ecological functioning remains underexplored. Comparing the forest dynamics in mature and regenerating forests offers insights into forest recovery and carbon dynamics. Aims To compare forest structure, floristic composition, stand dynamics and carbon of a mature and secondary tropical rainforest. Methods We assessed tree community and carbon dynamics over 5 years in two 1-ha long-term ecosystem monitoring plots, one each in mature tropical rainforests (MR) and 10-year post-agroforestry secondary rainforests (SR) in India’s Western Ghats mountains. Both plots were established in 2017 and monitored annually. We expected (1) higher tree diversity, differences in species composition, and greater carbon stock in MR; (2) higher carbon sequestration rates in SR; and (3) carbon dynamics shaped by growth and mortality in SR and MR, respectively. Results The SR plot had fewer species (67 vs. 84), stored substantially less carbon (76 vs. 193 Mg), and comprised a distinct community with fewer late-successional species than MR. SR gained 5.8 Mg carbon, due to tree growth exceeding losses from mortality, while in MR mortality exceeded growth and recruitment resulting in a 3.3 Mg carbon decline over five years. Conclusion While MR had higher tree diversity, carbon stocks and relatively intact composition, the high rates of biodiversity and carbon accrual in SR highlight the conservation and climate significance of post-agroforestry secondary forests. Moderate carbon losses noted here in MR, as in other mature South Asian tropical forests, is a cause for concern under ongoing climate change.

Assessing current and future areas of ecological suitability for Lutzomyia shannoni in North America

BackgroundIn the Americas, sand flies of the Lutzomyia genus are the vectors of pathogens of human and animal health significance. Lutzomyia shannoni is suspected to transmit vesicular stomatitis virus, along with Leishmania mexicana and Leishmania infantum (causative agents of leishmaniases). Despite the suspected vector potential of Lu. shannoni, significant knowledge gaps remain, including how ongoing climate changes could facilitate their range expansion. The objectives of this study were to predict the current and future ecological suitability of regions across North America for Lu. shannoni and to identify variables driving ecological suitability.MethodsOccurrence records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Disease Vectors Database, the National Museum of Natural History (Smithsonian Institution) and published literature on Lu. shannoni surveillance and capture. Historical climate data from 1991–2020, along with projection data for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2–4.5 and 3–7.0 were obtained. An additional terrestrial ecoregions layer was applied. The ecological niche model was created using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithms to identify regions which currently are or may become ecologically suitable for Lu. shannoni.ResultsCurrently, regions in eastern, western and southern Mexico, along with the Midwest, southeastern and eastern regions of the USA are ecologically suitable for Lu. shannoni. In the future, ecological suitability for Lu. shannoni is expected to increase slightly in the northeastern regions of the USA and in Atlantic Canada, and to decrease in the southeastern reaches of Mexico. Degree-days below 0 °C (spring and autumn), precipitation as snow (summer and winter), terrestrial ecoregions, number of frost-free days (summer), Hargreaves climatic moisture deficit (summer), degree-days above 5 °C (autumn) and Hogg’s climatic moisture index (summer) were all identified as predictors of ecological suitability.ConclusionsThe findings from this study identified climate and environmental variables driving the ecological suitability of regions for Lu. shannoni and can be used to inform public health professionals of high-risk regions for exposure at present and into the future.Graphical abstract

Linking ringed seal foraging behaviour to environmental variability

BackgroundForaging rates directly influence animals’ energetic intake and expenditure and are thus linked to body condition and the ability to survive and reproduce. Further, understanding the underlying processes driving a species’ behaviour and habitat use is important as changes in behaviour could result from changes in environmental conditions.MethodsIn this study, the dives of Saimaa ringed seals (Pusa hispida saimensis) were classified for the first time using hidden Markov models and telemetry data collected on individual dives, and the behavioural states of the diving seals were estimated. In addition, we used generalized additive mixed models on the foraging probability of the seals to identify environmental and temporal drivers of foraging behaviour.ResultsWe inferred three (in winter) or four (in summer) different dive types: sleeping/resting dives, shallow inactive dives, transiting dives and foraging dives, based on differences in dive metrics logged by or derived from data from telemetry tags. Long and relatively deep sleeping/resting dives were missing entirely in the winter, compensated by an increased proportion of time used for haul-out. We found profound differences in the behaviour of Saimaa ringed seals during the open water season compared to the ice-covered winter, with the greatest proportion of time allocated to foraging during the summer months (36%) and the lowest proportion in the winter (21%). The seals’ foraging probability peaked in summer (July) and was highest during the daytime during both summer and winter months. Moreover, foraging probability was highest at lake depths of 7–30 m in the winter and at depths > 15 m in the summer. We also found some evidence of sex-specific foraging strategies that are adapted seasonally, with females preferring more sheltered water areas during winter.ConclusionsWe suggest that the foraging behaviour of Saimaa ringed seals is largely influenced by diel vertical movements and availability of fish, and that the seals optimize their energy acquisition while conserving energy, especially during the cold winter months. Further, the seals display some flexibility in foraging strategies, a feature that may help this endangered subspecies to cope with the ongoing climate change.

A well-connected Earth: The science and conservation of organismal movement.

Global biodiversity targets focus on landscape and seascape connectivity as a foundational component of biodiversity conservation, including networks of connected protected areas. Recent advances allow the measurement and prediction of organismal movements at multiple scales. We provide a definition of connectivity that links movement to persistence and ecological function. Connectivity science can guide planning for biodiversity, ecosystem services, ecological restoration, and climate adaptation. Ongoing climate change and land and sea use are closing the window of opportunity for connectivity conservation. A coordinated global effort is required to implement scientific knowledge and to monitor, map, protect, and restore areas that promote movement and maintain well-connected ecosystems for biodiversity in the long term.

Warmer and brighter winters than before: Ecological and public health challenges from the expansion of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa).

Assessing the species ecological responses to ongoing climate change is a critical challenge in environmental science. Rising temperatures, particularly in winter, are altering the distribution patterns of many species, including the pine processionary moth (PPM), Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Denis & Schiffermüller, 1775). This Mediterranean species, a significant defoliator of conifers, is expanding its range northward as winter temperatures increase. The larvae of PPM also pose serious public health risks due to their ability to induce allergic reactions in humans, pets, and livestock. To better understand these ecological shifts, we calibrated three distribution models (Bayesian Additive Regression Trees, Boosted Regression Trees, and Random Forest) based on historical and modern occurrence data compiling of 1769 points, and assessed climate suitability under historical, current and future conditions. Our results show that winter minimum temperatures, summer maximum temperatures, and solar radiation significantly influence the life cycle, and shape the geographical distribution of PPM. Under current conditions, PPM could extend its range further north, but its limited flight capabilities hinder its ability to keep up with the pace of climate change. Future projections suggest continued northward expansion, although solar radiation is expected to limit the northernmost range of PPM. Certain host tree species of PPM are frequently used as ornamental plants, particularly in urban areas, which makes the careful selection of these species a potentially valuable tool for management. Our findings identify regions that are likely to become suitable for PPM colonization, where proactive measures could be implemented.

Temperature thresholds induce abrupt shifts in biodiversity and ecosystem services in montane ecosystems worldwide

Montane ecosystems are crucial for maintaining global biodiversity and function that sustain life on our planet. Yet, these ecosystems are highly vulnerable to changing temperatures and may undergo critical transitions under ongoing climate change. What we do not know is to what extent montane biodiversity and ecosystem services will respond to local temperature variations in a gradual versus abrupt manner across global environments. To fill this knowledge gap, we conducted a global synthesis, including 4,462 observations from 290 elevation gradients, to investigate how biodiversity (spanning animals and plants) and ecosystem services (including plant production, soil carbon, and fertility) respond to local temperature variations along elevation gradients. We found that nearly one-third of these gradients exhibited abrupt shifts in multiple biodiversity and ecosystem services in response to local variations in temperature along elevation gradients. More specifically, we showed that once a particular local temperature level (~10 °C for mean annual temperature) was reached, even small increases in temperature resulted in dramatic variations in biodiversity and ecosystem services. We further showed that those abrupt shifts in response to local temperature increases were commonly positive for plant and animal diversity, as well as plant production, while soil carbon and fertility more commonly exhibit negative abrupt trends. Our work, based on the most comprehensive empirical evidence available so far, reveals the pervasive abrupt responses of biodiversity and ecosystem services to local temperature variations in montane ecosystems worldwide, highlighting the highly sensitive nature of montane ecosystems in the context of climate change.

The Paramo Fire Atlas: quantifying burned area and trends across the Tropical Andes

Abstract The paramo ecosystem is vital for biodiversity conservation and water regulation. Despite fire being a known disturbance agent in this ecosystem, little is known about the frequency and trends in these high-elevation landscapes. To address this knowledge gap, we generated a novel burned area database, the Paramo Fire Atlas, spanning from 1985 to 2022 at 30 m resolution, quantifying the fire’s impacts on the Paramo ecosystem across Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Peru. Using the complete Landsat archive, our database reveals that approximately 6370 km2 has been affected by fires over 37 years, representing 15% of the total paramo area. Comparing these findings with estimates from the widely used MODIS MCD64 burned area product, we found that MODIS detected only 989 km2 of burned area. This represents only one-fourth of the burned area detected by the Paramo Fire Atlas. This significant underestimation by MODIS underscores the limitations of existing data sources in assessing the fire impacts of this complex ecosystem. Contrary to the prevailing notion of increasing fire frequency, our analysis shows a significant decrease in burnt areas across the Colombia paramos, contrasting with heterogeneous trends observed in Ecuador and Peru and a recent peak in fire occurrence in Venezuela. While fires have largely disappeared from certain paramos, others exhibit varying degrees of change. These findings raise important questions about the role of fire disturbances in shaping the ecological functioning of the paramo and the future dynamics of fire in the paramo ecosystem under ongoing global climate change and socio-economical dynamics.

Marine and terrestrial biostimulant elicitors of tolerance to cold stress.

The increasing frequency of adverse environmental events, driven by ongoing climate change, has intensified the search for new technological alternatives in crop production and plant protection. Thermal stress can limit plant adaptation and negatively impact metabolism, physiology, morphology, and yield. Cold stress in plants has been extensively studied and can affect various stages of plant's life cycle, from seed formation to development, causing damage to cell membranes, impairing cell division, and disrupting water absorption. Consequently, researchers have focused on mitigating the impacts of abiotic stress by investigating bioactive molecules and biostimulants derived from various organisms, which enhance tolerance mechanisms in plants. In aquatic environments, macro- and microalgae have emerged as key sources of plant elicitors, providing extractable molecules such as polysaccharides, polyamines, polyphenols, and amino acids that enhance plant defense responses. Similarly, certain terrestrial plants have shown potential as sources of biostimulant compounds. Thus, this study aims to highlight advancements in crop systems by emphasizing the potential of algae-based and terrestrial biostimulant elicitors in enhancing tolerance to cold stress. Ultimately, the goal is to improve understanding of promising biological models for food production, fostering innovative developments that can contribute to economically and ecologically sustainable technologies.

Reliability of fire danger forecasts for Czech agricultural and forestry landscapes

BackgroundThe increasing threat of fire caused by ongoing climate change requires accurate and timely prediction for the effective management of extreme fire situations. The limited research on the connection between fire danger metrics and the occurrence of wildfires in the forested and agricultural landscapes of the Czech Republic underscores the need to better understand how to properly quantify fire danger in the context of Central Europe. This study focused on assessing the accuracy of fire danger prediction with respect to the number of wildfires in different geographic regions of the Czech Republic and provided new insights into central European fire ecology.ResultsWe found that the fire season in the Czech Republic has two peaks, in spring and summer, with regional differences in the total number of wildfires. Analyses of fire danger via the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Australian Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) for the years 2018–2022 revealed that the IFS numerical weather prediction model is the most suitable for conditions in the Czech Republic. A linear regression model showed a high predictive capability for the total number of wildfires in the Czech Republic, with an observed R-squared value of 0.81 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.19 wildfires with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 4.94–5.44. Additionally, the second model, which utilized a linear model with random effects to account for regional variability, had an R-squared value of 0.34 and an MAE of 1 wildfire (95% CI ± 3), indicating that the inclusion of regional correction coefficients (random effects) enhanced the prediction accuracy.ConclusionsThis study provides key insights into fire danger prediction in relation to the number of wildfires. With this model, it is possible to predict how many wildfires may occur at specific values of the FWI and FFDI in individual regions (NUTS 3) of the Czech Republic. This information can be used for more effective readiness planning for human resources and fire equipment while also contributing to the enhancement of general knowledge in the field of fire science in the context of central Europe.

Exploring Storm Tides Projections and Their Return Levels Around the Baltic Sea Using a Machine Learning Approach

Extreme sea levels are a major global concern due to their potential to cause fatalities and significant economic losses in coastal areas. Consequently, accurate projections of these extremes for the coming century are crucial for effective coastal planning. While it is well established that relative sea level rise driven by ongoing climate change is a key factor influencing future extreme sea levels, changes in storm surges resulting from shifts in storm climatology may also play a critical role. In this study, we project future daily maximum storm tides (the combination of storm surge and tides) using a random forest machine learning approach for 59 stations around the Baltic Sea, based on atmospheric variables such as surface pressure, wind speed, and wind direction derived from climate datasets. The results suggest both positive and negative changes, with sub-regional variations, in 50-year storm tide return levels across the Baltic Sea when comparing the period of 2070–2099 to 1850–1879. Localized increases of up to 10 cm are projected along the west coast of Sweden and the northern Baltic Sea, while decreases of up to 6 cm are anticipated along the south coast of Sweden, the Gulf of Riga, and the mouth of the Gulf of Finland. Negligible levels of change are expected in other parts of the Baltic Sea. The variability in atmospheric drivers across the four climate models contributes to a high degree of uncertainty in future climate projections.

Plant phenology response to nitrogen addition decreases community biomass stability in an alpine meadow

Summary Phenology is a sensitive indicator of plant responses to environmental changes, and its shifts could impact community structure and function. However, the effects of phenological shifts on community stability are poorly understood. We conducted a 4‐yr N enrichment and precipitation change experiment to assess their effects on community stability through phenological responses. To do so, we measured phenological duration and overlap (based on leaf‐out and flowering phenology of 55 species) in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. N enrichment extended the vegetative stage of grasses, sedges, and community by 4.62, 4.72, and 11.74 d, respectively, but shortened that of forbs by 6.14 d and increased the overlap of flowering among individuals within the community. Meanwhile, N enrichment decreased species richness, asynchrony, and stability of sedges. Furthermore, N enrichment decreased community stability by decreasing asynchrony but was not associated with richness. Interestingly, N enrichment also decreased sedges stability by extending their vegetative stage and increasing the overlap of flowering, consequently reducing community stability. Our findings imply that N enrichment reduces phenological compensation and thus threatens grassland stability, which highlights the importance of phenological niches in understanding the maintenance of grassland stability under ongoing climate change.