Abstract MotivationClimate change plays an important role in the generation and maintenance of biodiversity by driving processes such as diversification and range shifts. As a result, biodiversity patterns are often found to carry the imprints of palaeoclimatic changes. However, we still know little about the spatial and temporal variation in climate over the scale of millennia affecting eco‐evolutionary dynamics, mostly because of the scarcity of user‐friendly and freely available spatio‐temporal palaeoclimate series at such temporal scales. Here, we address this gap by presenting PALEO‐PGEM‐Series, a global spatio‐temporal dataset of the last 5 Myr, with 1 kyr resolution, spatially downscaled from emulations performed with the intermediate‐complexity atmosphere–ocean general circulation model PALEO‐PGEM. PALEO‐PGEM‐Series holds the potential to advance our understanding of the mechanisms behind the strong relationship between biodiversity and climate, a pressing need given projected biodiversity responses to anthropogenic climatic change.Main Types of Variables ContainedSpatio‐temporal series of monthly temperature and precipitation and 17 derived bioclimatic variables over the Pliocene–Pleistocene, along with standard error estimates from multiple runs of the emulator.Spatial Location and GrainGlobal landmasses, at 1° × 1°.Time Period and GrainLast 5 Myr at 1000 year resolution.Major Taxa and Level of MeasurementNot applicable.Software FormatTab‐delimited text files and accompanying R code to derive bioclimatic variables.

Abstract A coupled ocean general circulation model (OGCM)‐ocean ecosystem model is used to investigate the effects of the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) on the ocean state in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Climatological and interannual three‐dimensional (3‐D) chlorophyll (CHL) fields are captured well in control runs using the coupled ocean physics‐ecosystem model forced by prescribed atmospheric fields. Further sensitivity experiments are performed to assess the effects of 3‐D CHL structure using the OGCM with the prescribed CHL fields taken from the control runs: CHLclim and are runs in which climatological DCM effect is included or only surface CHL effect is included; CHLinter and are runs with interannually varying DCM effects included or not. The differences in the simulated ocean conditions are analyzed to explore DCM effects on sea surface temperature (SST) and amplitude of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Two competing mechanisms responsible for the DCM effects are revealed: an ocean biology‐induced direct heating (OBH) effect, and an indirect cooling effect due to dynamic processes associated with vertical mixing and shallow meridional overturning circulation. There are three major findings: (a) DCM acts to reduce mean SST by around 0.2°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific, being larger than the surface CHL effects. (b) DCM interannual variability increases the ENSO amplitude to a comparable degree as the surface CHL effects. (c) The total net impact of vertical mixing, currents, and net surface heat flux makes SST drop more under the DCM effect than the surface CHL effect in the eastern Pacific. These findings provide a new insight into the feedback mechanisms for the bioclimate interactions.

Abstract The internal wave–vortex interaction was investigated for a broad parameter range except near inertial waves, by 1) scaling, 2) numerical experiments, and 3) the estimation of possible occurrences. By scaling, we identified a nondimensional parameter, δ = (V/c)[1/(kR)], where V is the vortex flow speed, R is the radius, c is the incident wave phase speed, and k is the horizontal wavenumber. As δ appears in all terms related to the interaction, it is important in the classification of the wave–vortex interaction. Numerical experiments were conducted on internal waves incident on a stable barotropic vortex with a parameter range of δ = [0.001, 1.7], which is much broader than that used in previous studies (δ ≪ 1). We found new phenomena for δ > 0.15, in addition to previously known scattering for δ ≤ 0.15 (scattering regime). For 0.15 < δ ≤ 0.4, part of the incident internal wave is trapped in a vortex, forming a wheel-like shape maintaining a superinertial frequency (wheel-trapping regime). When δ > 0.4, incident waves are trapped, but with a spiral shape (spiral-trapping regime). Spiral-shaped trapped waves release momentum by wave breaking, which deforms the vortex into a zigzag shape in the vertical direction. Vortex deformation produces vertical shear, which rapidly increases the vertical wavenumber of the incident wave. The distribution of δ in the Pacific Ocean was estimated using a high-resolution (1/30°) ocean general circulation model output. We found the occurrences of all three regimes. The scattering and wheel-trapping regimes are distributed broadly and varied seasonally, thus affecting mixing variability. Significance Statement Oceanic internal waves constitute the fundamental forcing of overturning and material circulation, because internal waves eventually break and cause vertical mixing. Interactions between internal waves and vortices affect wave properties and, therefore, mixing. However, as far as we are aware, all previous studies have focused on large weak vortices relative to waves. Here, we investigated such interactions for a much larger parameter space and identified two new regimes, in which vertical mixing is caused by newly found internal wave trapping and vortex deformation processes. We identified a nondimensional parameter that classifies the regimes and estimated their spatiotemporal distribution. These results suggest new energy routes from internal waves to turbulence and are applicable to other types of waves and vortices.

Advancing the representation of uncertainties in ocean general circulation numerical models is required for several applications, ranging from data assimilation to climate monitoring and extended-range prediction systems. The atmospheric forcing represents one of the main uncertainty sources in numerical ocean models. Here, we formulate and revise different approaches to perturb the air-sea fluxes used within the atmospheric boundary conditions. In particular, perturbation of the fluxes is performed either through i) stochastic modulation of the air-sea transfer coefficients; ii) stochastic modulation of the air-sea flux tendencies; iii) coarse-graining of stochastic sub-grid computation of the fluxes; or iv) multiple bulk formulas. The schemes are implemented and tested in the NEMO4 ocean model, implemented at an eddy-permitting resolution on a domain covering the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans and the Mediterranean Sea. A series of 22-year 4-member ensemble experiments with different stochastic schemes are performed and analyzed for the period 2000-2021, and results are compared in terms of the ensemble mean and, when applicable, ensemble spread of the principal oceanic diagnostics. Results indicate that the schemes, in general, can significantly improve some verification skill scores (e.g. against drifter current speed, SST analyses, and hydrographic profiles) and, in some cases, enhance the mesoscale activity and weaken the large-scale circulation. The response, however, is different depending on the specific scheme, whose choice thus depends on the target application, as detailed in the paper. These findings foster the adoption of these schemes in both extended-range operational ocean forecasts and coupled long-range climate prediction systems, where the boundary conditions perturbations may contribute to performance increases.

Abstract Previous theoretical studies suggest that the topography along the west coast of Australia plays an important role in strengthening and trapping the Leeuwin Current (LC) at the coast. To isolate and quantify the effect of the continental shelf and slope on the LC and Ningaloo Niño, high-resolution (1/12°) ocean general circulation model experiments with different bottom topographies are performed. The “control” experiment uses a realistic bottom topography along the west coast of Australia, whereas the sensitivity (“no-shelf”) experiment uses a modified topography with no continental shelf and slope near the coast. The mean and variability of LC are realistically simulated in the control experiment. Compared to the control experiment, the strength of LC in the no-shelf experiment decreased by about 28%. The continental shelf influences the development of the 2010/11 Ningaloo Niño through modulating the LC variability: in August–October 2010 and January–February 2011, the LC in the control experiment is enhanced much more than that in the no-shelf experiment. As a result, the upper-50-m ocean temperature in the control experiment is about 26% warmer than the no-shelf experiment from September 2010 to March 2011. Different evolution of SST warming is also found in the two experiments. Comparisons of oceanic processes in the two experiments show that the shelf-slope topography can effectively trap the positive sea level anomaly at the coast in the control experiment while more Rossby waves radiate from the coast in the no-shelf experiment, resulting in a weaker LC.

Abstract Recent studies of various stochastic forcing and subgrid-scale parameterization schemes applied to climate and atmospheric models have revealed a diversity of model responses. These responses include degeneracy in the response to different forcings and compensating model errors. While stochastic parameterization of the ocean eddies is an active area, this has mainly involved idealized models with fewer studies employing ocean general circulation models. Here we examine the sensitivity of a low-resolution climate model to stochastic forcing of the momentum fluxes restricted to regions of the three-dimensional ocean where an eddy-resolving ocean model configuration has high variability. We consider the changes in the modeled energetics of low-resolution simulations in response to increased stochastic forcing. We find that as forcing amplitudes are increased there is enhanced conversion of transient to seasonal potential energy. Additionally, there is a systematic redistribution from seasonal to small-scale transient kinetic energy. Our approach has zero mean noise such that the total kinetic energy spectra remain largely unchanged even as small-scale eddy kinetic energy is increased in the targeted regions. However, we also show that strong stochastic forcing, particularly when applied in the tropics, can induce substantial changes to the ocean steady state that are undesirable. These changes include overly strong vertical mixing leading to unrealistic increases in ocean heat content and latitudinally dependent changes to sea level. We show that judicious selection of the magnitude and spatial extent of the stochastic forcing is required for desirable results. Our results point to the importance of a comprehensive evaluation of ocean model responses to stochastic parameterizations.

Abstract. The neodymium (Nd) isotopic composition of seawater is a widely used ocean circulation tracer. However, uncertainty in quantifying the global ocean Nd budget, particularly constraining elusive non-conservative processes, remains a major challenge. A substantial increase in modern seawater Nd measurements from the GEOTRACES programme, coupled with recent hypotheses that a seafloor-wide benthic Nd flux to the ocean may govern global Nd isotope distributions (εNd), presents an opportunity to develop a new scheme specifically designed to test these paradigms. Here, we present the implementation of Nd isotopes (143Nd and 144Nd) into the ocean component of the FAMOUS coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (Nd v1.0), a tool which can be widely used for simulating complex feedbacks between different Earth system processes on decadal to multi-millennial timescales. Using an equilibrium pre-industrial simulation tuned to represent the large-scale Atlantic Ocean circulation, we perform a series of sensitivity tests evaluating the new Nd isotope scheme. We investigate how Nd source and sink and cycling parameters govern global marine εNd distributions and provide an updated compilation of 6048 Nd concentrations and 3278 εNd measurements to assess model performance. Our findings support the notions that reversible scavenging is a key process for enhancing the Atlantic–Pacific basinal εNd gradient and is capable of driving the observed increase in Nd concentration along the global circulation pathway. A benthic flux represents a major source of Nd to the deep ocean. However, model–data disparities in the North Pacific highlight that under a uniform benthic flux, the source of εNd from seafloor sediments is too non-radiogenic in our model to be able to accurately represent seawater measurements. Additionally, model–data mismatch in the northern North Atlantic alludes to the possibility of preferential contributions from “reactive” non-radiogenic detrital sediments. The new Nd isotope scheme forms an excellent tool for exploring global marine Nd cycling and the interplay between climatic and oceanographic conditions under both modern and palaeoceanographic contexts.

The rotating shallow water model is a simplification of oceanic and atmospheric general circulation models that are used in many applications such as surge prediction, tsunami tracking and ocean modelling. In this paper we introduce a class of rotating shallow water models which are stochastically perturbed in order to incorporate model uncertainty into the underlying system. The stochasticity is chosen in a judicious way, by following the principles of location uncertainty, as introduced in Mémin (Geophys Astrophys Fluid Dyn 108(2):119–146, 2014). We prove that the resulting equation is part of a class of stochastic partial differential equations that have unique maximal strong solutions. The methodology is based on the construction of an approximating sequence of models taking value in an appropriately chosen finite-dimensional Littlewood-Paley space. Finally, we show that a distinguished element of this class of stochastic partial differential equations has a global weak solution.

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) integrate previously separate models of the ocean, atmosphere and vegetation into one comprehensive modelling system enabling the investigation of interactions between different components of the Earth system. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions from terrestrial vegetation, which represent the most important source of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the Earth system, need to be included in global and regional chemical transport models given their major chemical impacts on the atmosphere. Due to the feedback of vegetation activity involving interactions with weather and climate, a coupled modelling system between vegetation and atmospheric chemistry is recommended to address the fate of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). In this work, further development in linking LPJ-GUESS, a global dynamic vegetation model, to the atmospheric-chemistry-enabled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model EMAC is presented. New parameterisations are included to calculate the foliar density and leaf area density (LAD) distribution from LPJ-GUESS information. The new vegetation parameters are combined with existing LPJ-GUESS output (i.e. leaf area index and cover fractions) and used in empirically based BVOC modules in EMAC. Estimates of terrestrial BVOC emissions from EMAC's submodels ONEMIS and MEGAN are evaluated using (1) prescribed climatological vegetation boundary conditions at the land–atmosphere interface and (2) dynamic vegetation states calculated in LPJ-GUESS (replacing the “offline” vegetation inputs). LPJ-GUESS-driven global emission estimates for isoprene and monoterpenes from the submodel ONEMIS were 546 and 102 Tg yr−1, respectively. MEGAN determines 657 and 55 Tg of isoprene and monoterpene emissions annually. The new vegetation-sensitive BVOC fluxes in EMAC are in good agreement with emissions from the semi-process-based module in LPJ-GUESS. The new coupled system is used to evaluate the temperature and vegetation sensitivity of BVOC fluxes in doubling CO2 scenarios. This work provides evidence that the new coupled model yields suitable estimates for global BVOC emissions that are responsive to vegetation dynamics. It is concluded that the proposed model set-up is useful for studying land–biosphere–atmosphere interactions in the Earth system.

Abstract Mesoscale eddies play an important role in transport of heat and biogeochemical tracers in the global ocean circulation. Resolving these energetic eddies, however, is challenging in ocean general circulation models (OGCM) because it requires a horizontal grid spacing of ≲1/8° that is computationally expensive. As a result, we are required to parameterize mesoscale eddy effects on large‐scale ocean flows. In this work, we introduce a new subgrid‐scale (SGS) model that is developed based on a Taylor series expansion of resolved variables to parameterize subgrid mesoscale eddy transports and momentum fluxes in OGCM. We have performed an a priori study to evaluate the performance of our new gradient model using high‐resolution ocean simulations. Our results show that the gradient model well predicts the actual SGS thickness fluxes in the zonal and meridional directions in coarse‐resolution simulations with the grid spacing ≳1/4°. The unresolved kinetic energy at the ocean surface is also skillfully estimated. More importantly, unlike current mesoscale eddy parameterizations, which are mainly developed based on an assumption of flat bottom ocean, our new SGS model can capture the structure of unresolved standing meanders at the ocean surface. We have also developed a dynamic procedure for setting in non‐dimensional parameters in our new parameterization through a non‐ad hoc and tuning‐free method. Overall, this work suggests that implementing the gradient model in OGCM can improve the model accuracy with an affordable computational cost in eddy‐permitting and non‐eddying simulations.

Abstract. Tides are proved to have a significant effect on the ocean and climate. Previous modelling research either adds a tidal mixing parameterisation or an explicit tidal forcing to the ocean models. However, no research compares the two approaches in the same framework. Here we implement both schemes in a general ocean circulation model and assess both methods by comparing the results. The aspects for comparison involve hydrography, sea ice, meridional overturning circulation (MOC), vertical diffusivity, barotropic streamfunction and energy diagnostics. We conclude that although the mesh resolution is poor in resolving internal tides in most mid-latitude and shelf-break areas, explicit tidal forcing still shows stronger tidal mixing at the Kuril–Aleutian Ridge and the Indonesian Archipelago than the tidal mixing parameterisation. Beyond that, the explicit tidal forcing method leads to a stronger upper cell of the Atlantic MOC by enhancing the Pacific MOC and the Indonesian Throughflow. Meanwhile, the tidal mixing parameterisation leads to a stronger lower cell of the Atlantic MOC due to the tidal mixing in deep oceans. Both methods maintain the Antarctic Circumpolar Current at a higher level than the control run by increasing the meridional density gradient. We also show several phenomena that are not considered in the tidal mixing parameterisation, for example, the changing of energy budgets in the ocean system, the bottom drag induced mixing on the continental shelves and the sea ice transport by tidal motions. Due to the limit of computational capacity, an internal-tide-resolving simulation is not feasible for climate studies. However, a high-resolution short-term tidal simulation is still required to improve parameters and parameterisation schemes in climate studies.

Energetics of eddy–mean flow interactions in the deep western boundary current off the northeastern coast of Brazil

The ocean responds to atmospheric variations. Changes in sea surface winds, surface air temperature, and surface air humidity cause upper ocean variability by modulating air-sea momentum and heat exchanges. Upper ocean variability in the mid-latitudes on inter-annual and longer timescales has previously been considered to be attributable to atmospheric variations in the cold season, because atmospheric forcing is stronger in the cold season than in the warm season. However, this idea has not been sufficiently confirmed yet. Although the ocean model is a useful tool to evaluate the impact of the atmospheric forcing in each season, there are no past studies having examined ocean model responses respectively to the cold- and warm-season atmospheric forcing. In this study, we performed numerical experiments with an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model and investigated oceanic responses to cold- and warm-season atmospheric forcing, focusing on the Kuroshio and North Pacific subtropical mode water (STMW) in the western mid-latitude North Pacific. We found that temporal variations of net Kuroshio transport and STMW distribution/temperature are dominantly controlled by atmospheric forcing in the cold season. These results suggest that cold-season atmospheric variations are key to obtaining insights into large-scale upper ocean variability in the North Pacific subtropical gyre.

In modern conditions of climate change and increasing pressure on water resources, river forecasting is becoming one of the urgent tasks of rational water use. The main tool for long-term climate characteristics prediction are the Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCM). In this paper, we assessed the quality of a number of climatic characteristics by the CMIP-6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6) AOGCMs for the Volga and Kama basins in order to access the possibility of their use to river runoff in the 21st century forecasting. A comparison was made of the data produced by the models for the period 1985-2014 and ERA5 reanalysis data (temperature and precipitation) as well as with observational data on river runoff. The reproduction error of the average values, standard deviations, and the coincidence of series trends evaluated. It is shown that the models demonstrate very different quality of the reproduction of water balance characteristics results. When using these models to predict possible changes in river flow in the future, it is necessary to take into account these uncertainties and apply methods to reduce the impact of systematic errors.

An underwater navigation algorithm that provides a "cold start" (CSA) geographic position, geo-position, underwater while submerged using travel times measured from a constellation of acoustic sources is described in Mikhalevsky, Sperry, Woolfe, Dzieciuch, and Worcester [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 147(4), 2365 - 2382 (2020)]. The CSA geo-position is used as the receive position in the ocean for acoustic modeling runs using an ocean general circulation model (GCM). A different geo-position is calculated using adjusted ranges from the travel time offsets between the data and modeled arrival times for each source. Because the CSA geo-position is close to the true position, the source to CSA position propagation model path and the source to true vehicle position data path of the acoustic arrivals are nearly coincident, enabling accurate measurement of travel time offsets. The cold start with model (CSAM) processing reduced the CSA geo-position errors from a mean of 58 to 25 m. A simulation is developed to estimate CSA and CSAM performances as a function of group speed variability between the source paths. The CSAM geolocation accuracy can be calculated from and is controlled by the accuracy of the GCM.

Investigating the performance of data mining, lumped, and distributed models in runoff projected under climate change

Using outputs from an ecosystem model embedded in an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model that can realistically simulate decadal modulations of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) between stable and unstable states, decadal variations of phytoplankton concentration in the upstream KE region are investigated. During stable states of the KE, surface phytoplankton concentrations are anomalously suppressed to the south of the KE front, while those to the north are anomalously enhanced. Although the surface phytoplankton concentration anomalies are prominent only during winter to spring, significant subsurface anomalies centered around 60 m depth persist even in summer and autumn. Anomalies persist throughout the year in phytoplankton biomass integrated over the upper 100 m despite the strong surface anomalies during the spring bloom season. An analysis of nitrogen concentration anomalies suggests that the vertical movement of the isopycnal surfaces, vertical mixing of nutrients, and meridional shifts in the KE jet contribute to the anomalous phytoplankton biomass.

The East Australian Current (EAC) is an important western boundary current of the South Pacific subtropical Circulation with high mesoscale eddy kinetic energy (EKE). Based on satellite altimeter observations and outputs from the eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM) for the Earth Simulator (OFES), the seasonal variability of EKE and its associated dynamic mechanism in the EAC region are studied. High EKE is mainly concentrated in the shear-region between the poleward EAC southern extension and the equatorward EAC recirculation along Australia's east coast, which is confined within the upper ocean (0-300 m). EKE in this area exhibits obvious seasonal variation, strong in austral summer with maximum (465±89 cm² s-²) in February and weak in winter with minimum (334±48 cm² s-²) in August. Energetics analysis from OFES suggests that the seasonal variability of EKE is modulated by the mixed instabilities composed of barotropic and baroclinic instabilities confined within the upper ocean, and barotropic instability (baroclinic instability) is the main energy source of EKE in austral summer (winter). The barotropic process is mainly controlled by the zonal shear of meridional velocities of the EAC southern extension and the EAC recirculation. The poleward EAC southern extension and the equatorward EAC recirculation are synchronously strengthened (weakened) due to the local positive (negative) sea level anomalies (SLA) under geostrophic equilibrium, and the barotropic instability dominated by zonal shear is enhanced (slackened), which results in a high (low) level of EKE in the EAC region.

Abstract In the mid‐latitude North Pacific, the wintertime ocean heat loss reaches the maximum in the Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension (KOE) region. However, the mixed layer depth (MLD) there is shallow (<50 m), flanked by a zonal band of deep MLD (>100 m) on either side. Such an observed mixed layer pattern is not reproduced by coarse‐resolution or mesoscale eddy‐resolving (1/10°) models. What causes the observed MLD shoaling along the KOE frontal region? Here we show that the mixed layer shoaling in the front is well reproduced by a 1/30°, submesoscale‐permitting ocean general circulation model, indicating that it is closely related to the submesoscale frontal dynamics. The geostrophic strain rate is strong along the sharp KOE front, favoring submesoscale frontal instabilities. The surface buoyancy loss during winter reduces stratification and enhances the fronts (i.e., with steeper, northward rising isopycnals). The available potential energy stored in the narrow fronts can be released in the form of eddy kinetic energy by the mixed layer baroclinic instabilities (MLI). The associated vigorous ageostrophic motions associated with MLI efficiently slump the vertically oriented isopycnals and restratify the mixed layer. Thus, the MLD is shallow in the KOE frontal region despite the strong surface heat loss and wind stirring during winter. The submesoscale processes revealed here have important implications for improving climate models.

Abstract Observations show that since the 1950s, the subsurface Southern Ocean has been rapidly warming in the south and cooling in the north. However, what drives these opposing latitudinal patterns of change is not well understood. By analyzing the outputs of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, we examine and quantify the processes controlling the temperature change in the Southern Ocean. We find that subsurface cooling in the north results from the combined effect of weak warming driven by greenhouse gases and cooling forced by aerosols. Contrary to previous work, we find that the influence of stratospheric ozone forcing is small and unnecessary to explain the observed patterns. Analysis of heat budget diagnostics shows that ocean heat content change between 400 and 1200 m in the Southern Ocean is primarily driven by slight imbalances between the large and opposing changes in residual mean advection and isopycnal diffusion. We show that while surface heat flux anomalies are the main contributor to the warming in the Southern Ocean, changes in wind stress are also required to produce the observed pattern of temperature change. These results highlight the importance of ocean dynamics in subsurface ocean heat content change. The counterbalancing effects of aerosols and greenhouse gases on ocean heat content change in the Southern Ocean will change with aerosols declining in the future, while our results suggest that changes in stratospheric ozone forcing will have only a minor effect on future patterns of Southern Ocean thermohaline structure.