Ocean General Circulation Model Research Articles

Improving Detectability of Seafloor Deformation From Bottom Pressure Observations Using Numerical Ocean Models

We investigated ocean bottom pressure (OBP) observation data at six plate subduction zones around the Pacific Ocean. The six regions included the Hikurangi Trough, the Nankai Trough, the Japan Trench, the Aleutian Trench, the Cascadia Subduction Zone, and the Chile Trench. For the sake of improving the detectability of seafloor deformation using OBP observations, we used numerical ocean models to represent realistic oceanic variations, and subtracted them from the observed OBP data. The numerical ocean models included four ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) of HYCOM, GLORYS, ECCO2, and JCOPE2M, and a single-layer ocean model (SOM). The OGCMs are mainly driven by the wind forcing. The SOM is driven by wind and/or atmospheric pressure loading. The modeled OBP was subtracted from the observed OBP data, and root-mean-square (RMS) amplitudes of the residual OBP variations at a period of 3–90 days were evaluated by the respective regions and by the respective numerical ocean models. The OGCMs and SOM driven by wind alone (SOMw) contributed to 5–27% RMS reduction in the residual OBP. When SOM driven by atmospheric pressure alone (SOMp) was added to the modeled OBP, residual RMS amplitudes were additionally reduced by 2–15%. This indicates that the atmospheric pressure is necessary to explain substantial amounts of observed OBP variations at the period. The residual RMS amplitudes were 1.0–1.7 hPa when SOMp was added. The RMS reduction was relatively effective as 16–42% at the Hikurangi Trough, the Nankai Trough, and the Japan Trench. The residual RMS amplitudes were relatively small as 1.0–1.1 hPa at the Nankai Trough and the Chile Trench. These results were discussed with previous studies that had identified slow slips using OBP observations. We discussed on further accurate OBP modeling, and on improving detectability of seafloor deformation using OBP observation arrays.

Impact of mid-glacial ice sheets on deep ocean circulation and global climate

Abstract. This study explores the effect of southward expansion of Northern Hemisphere (American) mid-glacial ice sheets on the global climate and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as well as the processes by which the ice sheets modify the AMOC. For this purpose, simulations of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (36 ka) and 5a (80 ka) are performed with an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. In the MIS3 and MIS5a simulations, the global average temperature decreases by 5.0 and 2.2 ∘C, respectively, compared with the preindustrial climate simulation. The AMOC weakens by 3 % in MIS3, whereas it strengthens by 16 % in MIS5a, both of which are consistent with an estimate based on 231Pa ∕ 230Th. Sensitivity experiments extracting the effect of the southward expansion of glacial ice sheets from MIS5a to MIS3 show a global cooling of 1.1 ∘C, contributing to about 40 % of the total surface cooling from MIS5a to MIS3. These experiments also demonstrate that the ice sheet expansion leads to a surface cooling of 2 ∘C over the Southern Ocean as a result of colder North Atlantic Deep Water. We find that the southward expansion of the mid-glacial ice sheet exerts a small impact on the AMOC. Partially coupled experiments reveal that the global surface cooling by the glacial ice sheet tends to reduce the AMOC by increasing the sea ice at both poles and, hence, compensates for the strengthening effect of the enhanced surface wind over the North Atlantic. Our results show that the total effect of glacial ice sheets on the AMOC is determined by two competing effects: surface wind and surface cooling. The relative strength of surface wind and surface cooling effects depends on the ice sheet configuration, and the strength of the surface cooling can be comparable to that of surface wind when changes in the extent of ice sheet are prominent.

Seasonal variations in salinity of the North Pacific Intermediate Water and vertical mixing intensity over the Okinawa Trough

Seasonal variations in vertical mixing intensity in the intermediate layer of the northern Okinawa Trough was deduced using the seasonal variations in salinity in the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) using two distinct datasets: the World Ocean Atlas 2013 and historical conductivity, temperature, and depth data in the Okinawa Trough. Water mass analysis of the NPIW with a simple advection model showed that the vertical mixing intensity in the intermediate layer is enhanced in the winter at a rate of 20–50% of the annual mean amplitude value. To determine the driving force behind the seasonal variations in vertical mixing, we examined moored current-meter data in the northern Okinawa Trough during 2004–2011 and showed that the near-inertial internal wave energy in the intermediate layer was enhanced around January beneath the Kuroshio on the continental slope; this was due to strong southwestward flows associated with deep cyclonic eddies developing in the winter. We used density and velocity data from a realistic high-resolution ocean general circulation model simulation to hypothesize that the large-amplitude Kuroshio meander and associated deep cyclonic eddies in the winter generate near-inertial internal waves through centrifugal/inertial instability in the area of negative potential vorticity that appears not only beneath the Kuroshio near the western slope but also near the eastern slope of the trough. In addition, the symmetric instability along the offshore Kuroshio front and the wind energy input in the winter are suggested as possible sources of winter-enhanced near-inertial internal wave energy in the intermediate layer.

Scenario Projections of Changes in Snow Water Equivalent Due to Possible Climate Changes in Different Regions of the Earth

The study was carried out under the international Earth System Model–Snow Model Intercomparison Project on ten experimental well-instrumented snow sites in different parts of the Earth and aimed to examine the ability of the SWAP land surface model, developed by the authors, to reproduce the current characteristics of snow cover dynamics. A procedure was developed for scenario projecting of changes in the characteristics of snow cover formation in the XXI century with the use of series of meteorological forcing data, calculated with the use of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models. The developed procedure was used to evaluate changes in the characteristics of snow cover formation in the XXI century in the areas of snow site locations in the context of current climate changes.

Improvements in tropical precipitation and sea surface air temperature fields in a coupled atmosphere–ocean data assimilation system

AbstractA coupled atmosphere–ocean data assimilation system, the Meteorological Research Institute‐Coupled Data Assimilation System Version 1 (MRI‐CDA1), was developed based on the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model and separate atmosphere and ocean analysis routines operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). To implement coupled atmosphere–ocean data assimilation, 6‐hr data assimilation cycles with the coupled model in the outer loop are adopted in atmospheric data assimilation, whereas incremental analysis updates with 10‐day data assimilation cycles are adopted in ocean data assimilation. A coupled data assimilation (reanalysis) experiment (CDA‐Exp) is conducted using MRI‐CDA1 along with an uncoupled reanalysis experiment (UCPL‐Exp) in which the same atmospheric component of the coupled model is forced by prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) similarly to the JMA reanalysis, JRA‐55. Climatological precipitation and variations in precipitation and sea surface air temperature (SAT) are better represented in CDA‐Exp than in JRA‐55, which is brought about by the modification of the atmosphere model physics of the coupled model to better represent climate states. In CDA‐Exp, the SST adjustment to the atmosphere amplifies the lead/lag correlations between subseasonal variations of SST and precipitation. The atmosphere–ocean coupling generates SST variations associated with tropical instability waves, and the SAT field responds to SST variations. The SST–precipitation and SST–SAT relationships on the weather timescale are also recovered in CDA‐Exp, although they are hardly seen in UCPL‐Exp. The coupled model physics generates weather‐timescale SST variations consistent with the atmospheric state, and the atmospheric parameters respond to the SST variations through the coupled model physics. This study suggests that the benefits of coupled data assimilation would be more evident if the ability of MRI‐CDA1 to represent SST variations and its interaction with the atmosphere are improved.

Tropical Pacific climate variability under solar geoengineering: impacts on ENSO extremes

Abstract. Many modelling studies suggest that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in interaction with the tropical Pacific background climate, will change with rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Solar geoengineering (reducing the solar flux from outer space) has been proposed as a means to counteract anthropogenic climate change. However, the effectiveness of solar geoengineering concerning a variety of aspects of Earth's climate is uncertain. Robust results are particularly challenging to obtain for ENSO because existing geoengineering simulations are too short (typically ∼ 50 years) to detect statistically significant changes in the highly variable tropical Pacific background climate. We here present results from a 1000-year-long solar-geoengineering simulation, G1, carried out with the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3L. In agreement with previous studies, reducing the solar irradiance (4 %) to offset global mean surface warming in the model more than compensates the warming in the tropical Pacific that develops in the 4 × CO2 scenario. We see an overcooling of 0.3 ∘C and a 0.23 mm d−1 (5 %) reduction in mean rainfall over the tropical Pacific relative to preindustrial conditions in the G1 simulation, owing to the different latitudinal distributions of the shortwave (solar) and longwave (CO2) forcings. The location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Pacific, which moved 7.5∘ southwards under 4 × CO2, is restored to its preindustrial position. However, other aspects of the tropical Pacific mean climate are not reset as effectively. Relative to preindustrial conditions, in G1 the time-averaged zonal wind stress, zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, and meridional SST gradient are each statistically significantly reduced by around 10 %, and the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) is consistently weakened, resulting in conditions conducive to increased frequency of El Niño events. The overall amplitude of ENSO strengthens by 9 %–10 % in G1, but there is a 65 % reduction in the asymmetry between cold and warm events: cold events intensify more than warm events. Notably, the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events increases by ca. 60 % and 30 %, respectively, while the total number of El Niño events increases by around 10 %. All of these changes are statistically significant at either 95 or 99 % confidence level. Somewhat paradoxically, while the number of total and extreme events increases, the extreme El Niño events become weaker relative to the preindustrial state, while the extreme La Niña events become even stronger. That is, such extreme El Niño events in G1 become less intense than under preindustrial conditions but also more frequent. In contrast, extreme La Niña events become stronger in G1, which is in agreement with the general overcooling of the tropical Pacific in G1 relative to preindustrial conditions.

Global tide simulations with ICON-O: testing the model performance on highly irregular meshes

The global tide is simulated with the global ocean general circulation model ICON-O using a newly developed tidal module, which computes the full tidal potential. The simulated coastal M2 amplitudes, derived by a discrete Fourier transformation of the output sea level time series, are compared with the according values derived from satellite altimetry (TPXO-8 atlas). The experiments are repeated with four uniform and sixteen irregular triangular grids. The results show that the quality of the coastal tide simulation depends primarily on the coastal resolution and that the ocean interior can be resolved up to twenty times lower without causing considerable reductions in quality. The mesh transition zones between areas of different resolutions are formed by cell bisection and subsequent local spring optimisation tolerating a triangular cell’s maximum angle up to 84°. Numerical problems with these high-grade non-equiangular cells were not encountered. The results emphasise the numerical feasibility and potential efficiency of highly irregular computational meshes used by ICON-O.

Southern Ocean Calcification Controls the Global Distribution of Alkalinity

Biological processes in Southern Ocean surface waters have widespread impacts on global productivity and oceanic CO2 storage. Here, we demonstrate that biological calcification in the Southern Ocean exerts a strong control on the global distribution of alkalinity. The signature of Southern Ocean calcification is evident in observations as a depletion of potential alkalinity within portions of Subantarctic Mode and Intermediate Water. Experiments with an ocean general circulation model indicate that calcification and subsequent sinking of biogenic carbonate in this region effectively transfers alkalinity between the upper and lower cells of the meridional overturning circulation. Southern Ocean calcification traps alkalinity in the deep ocean; decreasing calcification permits more alkalinity to leak out from the Southern Ocean, yielding increased alkalinity in the upper cell and low‐latitude surface waters. These processes have implications for atmosphere‐ocean partitioning of carbon. Reductions in Southern Ocean calcification increase the buffer capacity of surface waters globally, thereby enhancing the ocean's ability to absorb carbon from the atmosphere. This study highlights the critical role of Southern Ocean calcification in determining global alkalinity distributions, demonstrating that changes in this process have the potential for widespread consequences impacting air‐sea partitioning of CO2.

A General‐Coordinate, Nonlocal Neutral Diffusion Operator

AbstractWe present a neutral diffusion operator appropriate for an ocean model making use of general vertical coordinates. The diffusion scheme uses polynomial reconstructions in the vertical, along with a horizontally local but vertically nonlocal stencil for estimates of tracer fluxes. These fluxes are calculated on a vertical grid that is the superset of model columns in a neutral density space. Using flux‐limiters, the algorithm dissipates tracer extrema locally, and no new extrema are created. A demonstration using a linear equation of state in an idealized configuration shows that the algorithm is perfectly neutral. When using the nonlinear TEOS‐10 equation of state with a constant reference pressure, the algorithm compares nearly exactly to a case discretized onto isopycnal surfaces and using along‐layer diffusion. The algorithm's cost is comparable to that of tracer advection and can be readily implemented into ocean general circulation models.

Sub‐Mesoscales at Ocean Fronts: Dissipation of Eddy Kinetic Energy

AbstractD'Asaro et al. measured the dissipation of eddy kinetic energy at the Kuroshio ocean front, found it to be 1–2 orders of magnitude larger than the value predicted by the law of the wall, and suggested that the enhancement is due to sub‐mesoscales, SM. To assess their suggestion, we employ two SM models. In the first model, the buoyancy flux is based on baroclinic instabilities only and there is no momentum flux (Reynolds stresses). The model is unable to reproduce the Kuroshio data. The second model includes baroclinic instabilities, wind stress, and Reynolds stresses. It reproduces the data satisfactorily. The analytic formula for the dissipation that we present can be used in ocean general circulation models to parameterize dissipation at ocean fronts other than Kuroshio, for example, Gulf Stream and ACC, an extension that could improve the predictions of climate studies.

Subtropical-tropical pathways of spiciness anomalies and their impact on equatorial Pacific temperature

Understanding mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) is of high importance for differentiating between natural climate variability and human induced climate change as this region sustains strong global teleconnections. Here, we use an ocean general circulation model along with a Lagrangian tracer simulator to investigate the advection of density compensated temperature anomalies (“spiciness mechanism”) as a potential contributor to TPDV during the 1980–2016 period. Consistent with observations, we find the primary regions of spiciness generation in the eastern subtropics of each hemisphere. Our results indicate that 75 $$\%$$ of the equatorial subsurface water originates in the subtropics, of which two thirds come from the Southern hemisphere. We further show two prominent cases where remotely generated spiciness anomalies are advected to the equatorial Pacific, impacting subsurface temperature. The relative contribution of Northern versus Southern Hemisphere prominence and/or interior versus western boundary pathways depends on the specific event. The anomalously warm case largely results from advection via the Southern hemisphere interior (65 $$\%$$ ), while the anomalously cold case largely results from advection via the Northern hemisphere western boundary (48 $$\%$$ ). The relatively slow travel times from the subtropics to the equator (> 4 years) suggests that these spiciness anomalies underpin a potentially predictable contribution to TPDV. However, not all decadal peaks in equatorial spiciness can be explained by remotely generated spiciness anomalies. In those cases, we propose that spiciness anomalies are generated in the equatorial zone through changes in the proportion of Northern/Southern hemisphere source waters due to their different mean spiciness distribution.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Currents off the New Guinea Coast From Mooring Measurements

AbstractSeasonal and interannual variability of the New Guinea Coastal Current (NGCC) and New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent (NGCUC) were investigated with 3 years of mooring measurements off the northern coast of New Guinea and outputs from the Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator during 1980–2018. Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers mounted on the two moorings captured variations of the currents in the upper 800 m off the New Guinea coast during 2015–2018. NGCC is a seasonally reversing current in the upper 100 m, which flows southeastward in boreal winter with maximum velocity of 63 cm/s near the surface, and flows northwestward in boreal summer with maximum velocity of −55 cm/s at 80 m. NGCUC flows northwestward all year round between 100 and 400 m, and its temporal mean velocity reaches −40 cm/s at 200 m. A seasonally reversing current named New Guinea Coastal Intermediate Current with speed of 10 cm/s is detected below the NGCUC, which is in phase with the NGCC on seasonal time scale. Seasonal variation of the NGCUC is also in phase with that of the NGCC, and it is strong in boreal summer and weak in winter. Such seasonal signal reaches down to the depth of 800 m. Both mooring measurements and model outputs indicate that NGCUC demonstrates significant interannual variations associated with El Nino‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with its velocity core shoaling during El Nino and deepening during La Nina, but the net transport of NGCUC exhibits no significant relationship with ENSO.

Traces of the 1997 Indonesian Wildfires in the Marine Environment From a Network of Coral δ13C Records

AbstractGreat efforts have been made to understand the impacts of the 1997 Indonesian wildfires on land ecology and human health, yet its influences on marine environments are poorly understood owing to sparse observations. Here we present weekly to monthly resolution coral δ13C records across the South China Sea in conjunction with a regional ocean general circulation model to study the effects of these cataclysmic wildfires on nearby oceans. Large and persistent negative δ13C excursions were found in corals from the interior South China Sea several months after the wildfires. This delay indicates that the 13C‐depleted ash fallout was distributed by ocean currents rather than direct atmospheric transport, which is supported by the results of our numerical model. Thus, the impacts of tropical wildfires on marine ecology may last for 1 year and extend thousands of kilometers from the burning center.

Optimal 3D time-energy trajectory planning for AUVs using ocean general circulation models

This paper develops a new approach for solving optimal time and energy trajectory planning problems for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) in transient, 3D, ocean currents. Realistic forecasts using an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) are used for this purpose. The approach is based on decomposing the problem into a minimal time problem, followed by minimal energy subproblems. In both cases, a non-linear programming (NLP) formulation is adopted. The scheme is demonstrated for time-energy trajectory planning problems in the Gulf of Aden. In particular, the numerical experiments illustrate the capability of generating Pareto optimal solutions in a broad range of mission durations. In addition, the analysis also highlights how the methodology effectively exploits both the vertical structure of the current field, as well as its unsteadiness, namely to minimize travel time and energy consumption.

Impact of fine atmospheric scales on ocean eddies and deep convection in the Subpolar Northern Atlantic

In this study we examine the sensitivity of the high-resolution regional ocean model solution to the atmospheric forcing of low (70 km - LoRes) and high (14 km - HiRes) spatial resolutions over the North Atlantic. To force the regional set up of NEMO ocean general circulation model (OGCM) we use the North Atlantic Atmospheric Downscaling (NAAD) product, which is the result of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric GCM with ERA-Interim as a boundary condition. Increase of the of the resolution of the atmospheric forcing and thus, representation of the surface turbulent heat and radiative fluxes in HiRes and LoRes atmospheric forcing, cause the 1.5° negative difference between sea surface temperature and -0.15 PSU in sea water salinity over the whole domain. The output of the OGCM forced by the high-resolution atmosphere is almost equal to the observational datasets. More intensive turbulent heat loss from the ocean surface and ventilation processes result in lower ocean heat content in the upper ocean (0-700 m) and at intermediate depth (700-1500 m) when the model is forced by HiRes. HiRes-driven experiment shows more intense coastal currents and less intensive large-scale currents. Ventilation processes are sensitive to the mesoscale atmospheric events representation: HiRes experiment provides deeper by 100 m mixed layer depths and its later in time deepening and restratification.

The IOD Impacts on the Indian Ocean Carbon Cycle

AbstractThis paper examines the impacts of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Mode on the upper ocean carbon cycle and its variability in the Indian Ocean with available biogeochemical observations and 60 years (1960–2019) of model outputs from a global ocean biogeochemical general circulation model. The upper ocean carbon cycle variability of the Indian Ocean is faithfully reproduced by the model when compared with available observations. The IOD leads to a substantial sea‐to‐air CO2 flux variability in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean over a broad region (70–105°E, 0–20°S), with more focus near the coast of Java‐Sumatra due to the prevailing upwelling dynamics and associated westward propagating anomalies. The sea‐to‐air CO2 fluxes, surface ocean partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and ocean alkalinity (ALK) range as much as ±1.0 mole m−2 year−1, ±20 μatm, ±35 μmole kg−1, and ±22 μmole kg−1 within 80–105°E, 0–10°S due to IOD. The DIC and ALK are significant drivers of pCO2 variability associated with IOD. The roles of temperature (T) and biology are found negligible. A relatively warm T and extremely high freshwater forcing make the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean carbon cycle variability submissive to DIC and ALK evolutions in contrast to the tropical eastern Pacific where changes in DIC and T dominate the pCO2 interannual variability. For the first time, this study provides a most comprehensive and extended analysis for the region while highlighting significant differences in carbon cycle variability of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean compared to that of the other parts of the global oceans.

Bathymetric Influences on Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Melt Rates

AbstractOcean bathymetry exerts a strong control on ice sheet‐ocean interactions within Antarctic ice‐shelf cavities, where it can limit the access of warm, dense water at depth to the underside of floating ice shelves. However, ocean bathymetry is challenging to measure within or close to ice‐shelf cavities. It remains unclear how uncertainty in existing bathymetry datasets affect simulated sub‐ice‐shelf melt rates. Here we infer linear sensitivities of ice‐shelf melt rates to bathymetric shape with grid‐scale detail by means of the adjoint of an ocean general circulation model. Both idealized and realistic‐geometry experiments of sub‐ice‐shelf cavities in West Antarctica reveal that bathymetry has a strong impact on melt in localized regions such as topographic obstacles to flow. Moreover, response of melt to bathymetric perturbation is found to be non‐monotonic, with deepening leading to either increased or decreased melt depending on location. Our computational approach provides a comprehensive way of identifying regions, where refined knowledge of bathymetry is most impactful, and also where bathymetric errors have relatively little effect on modeled ice sheet‐ocean interactions.

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response

Abstract. Reduced-complexity climate models (RCMs) are critical in the policy and decision making space, and are directly used within multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports to complement the results of more comprehensive Earth system models. To date, evaluation of RCMs has been limited to a few independent studies. Here we introduce a systematic evaluation of RCMs in the form of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). We expect RCMIP will extend over multiple phases, with Phase 1 being the first. In Phase 1, we focus on the RCMs' global-mean temperature responses, comparing them to observations, exploring the extent to which they emulate more complex models and considering how the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 varies across the RCMs. Our work uses experiments which mirror those found in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), which focuses on complex Earth system and atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. Using both scenario-based and idealised experiments, we examine RCMs' global-mean temperature response under a range of forcings. We find that the RCMs can all reproduce the approximately 1 ∘C of warming since pre-industrial times, with varying representations of natural variability, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. We also find that RCMs can emulate the global-mean temperature response of CMIP models to within a root-mean-square error of 0.2 ∘C over a range of experiments. Furthermore, we find that, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenario pairs that share the same IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)-consistent stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing, the RCMs indicate higher effective radiative forcings for the SSP-based scenarios and correspondingly higher temperatures when run with the same climate settings. In our idealised setup of RCMs with a climate sensitivity of 3 ∘C, the difference for the ssp585–rcp85 pair by 2100 is around 0.23∘C(±0.12 ∘C) due to a difference in effective radiative forcings between the two scenarios. Phase 1 demonstrates the utility of RCMIP's open-source infrastructure, paving the way for further phases of RCMIP to build on the research presented here and deepen our understanding of RCMs.

What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.

Topographic Rossby Waves at Two Different Periods in the Northwest Pacific Basin

AbstractTo clarify characteristics and mechanisms of mesoscale variability in the deep ocean, we conducted a two-dimensional observation with a 3 × 3 grid mooring array around site R (30°N, 147°E) during 2014–16. We analyze the obtained velocity data together with past mooring observation data in the northwest Pacific basin and outputs of an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). In our two-dimensional mooring observations, the variability of zonal and meridional velocities at a depth of 4000 m was prominent at periods of 174 and 58 days, respectively. The variability at periods of 174 and 58 days propagated to the northwest and west-southwest, respectively, as a single plane wave. The variability at the period of 58 days was considered to be topographic Rossby waves (TRWs) under stratification originated in the Kuroshio Extension region north of site R, as demonstrated by our previous study. At the period of 174 days, zonal and meridional wavenumbers estimated from the phase lag for zonal velocities also satisfied the dispersion relation of TRWs under stratification. Backward ray tracing from site R indicated that energy of TRWs propagated from the eastern slope of the Shatsky Rise to site R almost along f/H contours, where f is the Coriolis parameter and H is water depth. The orientation of major axis of variance ellipses at periods of 174 days and longer, obtained from the past mooring observations and the OGCM outputs, tended to be parallel to f/H contours, being consistent with the direction of energy propagation of TRWs.