Despite a proliferation of fertility clinics and increasing public awareness of advanced reproductive technologies (ART), the annual growth of in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles performed in the United States decreased each year from 2000–2004. This analysis examines independent variables and their correlations with the number of IVF cycles performed annually in order to assess current and future trends. Retrospective multivariate statistical analysis. Data from the 1995–2004 Centers for Disease Control ART annual reports were consolidated, including total fresh nondonor (FND) cycles and pregnancy rate per FND cycle. To allow for a significant sample size and consistent analysis with other variables, data from each reporting center were aggregated to that center's respective state. Additional state-level data were incorporated, including female population age 25–44, median income, and infertility insurance mandate status. Multiple regression analysis was conducted, using FND cycles per 100,000 females age 25–44 as the dependent variable, and all other variables as potential independent variables. Natural logarithm transformation for the dependent variable was used to improve the regression model explanatory power and residual characteristics. Median income and the presence of a mandate to cover infertility treatment were positively correlated with FND cycles per 100,000 females age 25–44. Pregnancy rate per FND cycle was negatively correlated. The resulting regression equation was ln FND cycles per 100,000 females age 25–44 = 2.56 + 0.000066 state median income + 0.442 mandate to cover – 0.0142 FND pregnancy rate (P<0.01 for each independent variable; R2 = 47.9%). Population demographics, median income, the presence of an insurance mandate to cover fertility treatment, and pregnancy rate all appear to be statistically significant variables for explaining the utilization of ART at the state level. Insurance mandates and pregnancy rate had the largest impact. The presence of a mandate to cover is associated with an increase of 1.56 FND cycles per 100,000 potential patients, and each percentage point increase in FND pregnancy rate is associated with a decrease of 1.01 FND cycles per 100,000 potential patients. This analysis can be combined with other models to develop better forecasts for the number of cycles performed in the future. This study also revealed state-level differences in ART utilization which are being analyzed further.
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