Number Of Coronary Heart Disease Deaths Research Articles

Abstract 227: Estimating the Value of Effective Lipid Management in China

Background: Increasingly sedentary lifestyles and dietary changes associated with economic development in China, combined with progress in the treatment of infectious disease have resulted in a shift in the disease burden - the so-called epidemiological transition. Cardiovascular disease (CVD), including coronary heart disease (CHD) and other non-communicable diseases now play an increasingly important role in the disease burden faced by China. However, little is known about the future burden of CHD morbidity and mortality, as well as the cost-effectiveness of particular CHD-prevention policies in China. Objectives: To estimate the impact of aging and epidemiological transition on the burden of CHD morbidity and mortality over the next 15 years in China and to estimate the net value of effective lipid management. Methods: First, we estimate the prevalence of CHD and other risk factors based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Next, using prediction from the literature regarding trends in demographic and cardiovascular risk factors, such as elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), we model how CHD risk will evolve between 2015 and 2030. We then estimate how expanded use of statins for lipid management over the next 15 years would alter the prevalence of elevated LDL-C as a risk factor, and determine how this would dampen the future growth in CHD burden. Accounting for the costs of statin use, we assess the net value of a policy that expands statin utilization for lipid management in China. Results: We find that - left unchecked - rising prevalence of CHD risk factors and the aging of the Chinese population will lead to the incidence of heart attacks rising from 4 million in 2015 to over 6 million in 2030. Similarly, the number of CHD deaths will rise from 1.3 million in 2015 to over 2 million in 2030. Treating all hyperlipidemia patients with statins would avert 10.5 million heart attacks and 3.5 million CHD deaths between 2015 and 2030. Based on current estimates of treatment costs in China and the cost of statins, we predict that such a policy would produce a net social value of $176 to $226 billion over the next 15 years. Conclusions: In light of its aging population and continued economic development, China faces near-certain increases in the incidence of CHD morbidity and mortality. Preventative measures such as effective lipid management may reduce the CVD burden substantially and also provide large social value to the society. At a time when the Chinese government is taking steps towards a more systematic approach to health care delivery, primary and secondary prevention of CVD should be high on the agenda.

Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

BackgroundCoronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions.MethodsIn scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values.ResultsIn scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030.ConclusionsThe decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented.

Abstract P401: Predicting Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends In England And Wales: A Bayesian Age Period Cohort Forecast Up To 2030

Background: Although the rate of death (mortality) from Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) has halved since the 1970s, CHD remains a major cause of all-cause mortality in the UK. Furthermore, population ageing plus recent increases in obesity and diabetes may soon increase total CHD deaths. Predictions of future CHD mortality are thus potentially problematic. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two conventional but dramatically contrasting assumptions. Materials and Methods: In SCENARIO A, we used a conventional counterfactual, assuming that the last-observed CHD mortality rates (ONS) from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030.The future number of deaths was then calculated by applying those rates onto 2012-2030 population estimates. In SCENARIO B, we assumed that the recent trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. We used a well-established hierarchical Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) model, which works under the assumption that variability in CHD mortality can be explained by a combination of age, period and cohort effects. We fitted this model to the observed CHD mortality from 1979 to 2011 and then continued the linear trends in age, period and cohort effects up to 2030. We then used the BAPC model to predict mortality rates in 2012-2030, and then applied these rates to population projections to compute future deaths. Results: In scenario A, by assuming that 2011 mortality rates would continue at that level, the number of CHD deaths would increase 61.5% (39,597 of 64,323) by 2030. In scenario B, by assuming recent trends continued, the number of deaths would decrease 56.7% (-36,500 of 64,323) by 2030. This substantial decrease would occur despite a predicted slowing of mortality decline in middle aged groups. Conclusion: The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The underlying assumption of a commonly used mortality counterfactual thus appears slightly dubious. By contrast, the BAPC model offers a far more plausible prediction of future trends by simultaneously considering age, period and cohort effects and projecting each into the future. Thus, despite population ageing, we estimated that the number of CHD deaths would halve again between 2011 and 2030. Even so, shifts in population risk factors might still cause CHD mortality to move away from a trajectory of decline. There is no room for complacency and the promotion of cardiovascular health remains a top policy priority.

Abstract P115: How Many Coronary Heart Disease Deaths In Poland In 2020 Might Be Prevented By Further Reductions In Population Risk Factor Levels?

Background: Poland has experienced one of the most dramatic declines in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in recent decades. This decline reflects the use of evidence based treatments and, crucially, population wide changes in diet. Our aim is to explore the potential for further gains in Poland by achieving population wide reductions in smoking, dietary salt and saturated fat intake and physical inactivity levels. Methods: A validated and updated policy model was used to forecast potential decreases in CHD deaths by 2020 as consequence of lifestyle and dietary changes in the population. Data from the most recent Polish risk factor survey was used for the baseline (2011). We modeled two different policy scenarios regarding possible future changes in risk factors: A) conservative scenario: reduction of smoking prevalence and physically inactivity rates by 5% between 2011 and 2020, and reduction of dietary consumption of energy from saturated fats by 1% and of salt by 10%. B) ideal scenario: reduction of smoking and physically inactivity prevalence by 15%, and dietary reduction of energy from saturated fats by 3% and of salt by 30%. We also conducted extensive sensitivity analysis using different counterfactual scenarios of future mortality trends. Results: Baseline scenarios. By assuming continuing declines in mortality and no future improvements in risk factors the predicted number of CHD deaths in 2020 would be approximately 13,600 (9,838-18,184) while if mortality rates remain stable, the predicted number of deaths would approximate 22,200 (17,792-26,688). Conservative scenario. Assuming continuing declines in mortality, small changes in risk factors could result in approximately 1,500 (688-2,940) fewer deaths. This corresponds to a 11% mortality reduction. Under the ideal scenario, our model predicted some 4,600 (2,048-8,701) fewer deaths (a 34% mortality reduction). Reduction in smoking prevalence by 5% (conservative scenario) or 15% (ideal scenario) could result in mortality reductions of 4.5% and 13.8% respectively. Decreases in salt intake by 10% or 30% might reduce CHD deaths by 3.0% and 8.6% respectively. Replacing 1% or 3% of dietary saturated fats by poly-unsaturates could reduce CHD deaths by 2.6% or 7.7% Lowering the prevalence of physically inactive people by 5%-15% could decrease CHD deaths by 1.2%-3.7%. Conclusion: Small and eminently feasible population reductions in lifestyle related risk factors could substantially decrease future number of CHD deaths in Poland, thus consolidating the earlier gains.

Abstract MP18: Estimating Coronary Mortality Reductions By Shifting The Population Blood Pressure Distribution Or By Improving The Management Of Hypertensive Patients

Introduction: Hypertension is an important risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) in the UK and US. Although CHD death rates are falling, a large proportion of hypertensive patients are poorly controlled and population salt intake, a major determinant of hypertension, remains well above the recommended daily maximum of 6g/day. G. Rose identified two strategies to reduce CHD mortality. The first proposes that small, but population-wide, reductions in systolic blood pressure (SBP), achieved by public health measures to reduce salt intake, will deliver large reductions in mortality. The second seeks to reduce mortality by treating hypertensive patients and keeping them below a given risk-threshold. Here we explore the potential to reduce CHD deaths through a combination of these strategies in England and Wales up to 2030. Methods: We used the Stock of Health (SoH) model assuming each individual is born with a SoH, and on an annual basis this stock depreciates due to demographic factors, and fixed and variable risk factors. When the individual’s SoH reaches a critical point, a death from CHD occurs. The model parameters were calibrated using data from the US Cardiovascular Lifetime Risk Pooling Project. Births, deaths and risk factors distributions were estimated using data from England and Wales (ONS). We modelled a baseline scenario, three population-level strategies and two high-risk strategies. The population level strategies to reduce SBP were: (1) a reduction of 0.1 mmHg achievable by health promotion or labelling strategies, (2) a reduction of 1.3 mmHg achievable by mandatory reformulation and (3) matching England and Wales SBP levels to the observed values in the US population (average reduction:7 mmHg). In the high-risk strategies, 30% and 50% of the currently uncontrolled hypertensive patients respectively are treated to keep their SBP under 140 mmHg. Results: In the baseline scenario, the total number of CHD deaths from 2013 to 2030 will be approximately 465,000 (95% CI 460,308 to 469,334). We predict 1,244 (95% CI -3,320 to 5,807) fewer deaths by health promotion; approximately 16,203 (11,691 to 20,718) fewer deaths by mandatory reformulation of foods and some 78,051 (74,016 to 82,087) fewer deaths by reducing SBP levels to the observed levels in US. Conversely, by controlling the SBP of 30% and 50% of uncontrolled hypertensive patients, we predict 4,594 (6 to 9,191) and 7,172 (6,473 to 11,767) fewer deaths respectively. Conclusion: Both risk-targeted treatment strategies and population shifts attributable to salt reduction appear to provide potential substantial contributions to reducing CHD mortality in England and Wales. There remains, however, considerable potential to achieve much greater reductions in mortality by reducing SBP levels to those seen in the US.

PPO1 Predicting Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality trends in England and Wales in 2020: a Bayesian age Period Cohort Approach

BackgroundAlthough Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) death rates have halved since the 1970s, CHD remains a major cause of mortality in the UK. Furthermore, population ageing plus recent increases in obesity...

Commentary: Predicting future coronary heart disease deaths in Finland and elsewhere

Commentary: Predicting future coronary heart disease deaths in Finland and elsewhere

Predicting coronary heart disease mortality—assessing uncertainties in population forecasts and death probabilities by using Bayesian inference

Predictions concerning people and their health are influenced by many factors and have many sources of uncertainty. Even so predictions can give useful guidelines for health care planning. We present a Bayesian model based on past observations and prior knowledge to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in selected areas of Finland until the year 2030. CHD mortality data are based on official statistics. The study area consists of one western and two eastern parts of Finland. The modelling of the probability of death follows a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Two models are used, one assuming that the trend from 1970 to 2002 will continue and the other that mortality will stay at the attained level. If the observed trend in CHD mortality were to continue, death probabilities would decrease significantly among men aged 50-69 and women aged 50-59. In the older age groups (men aged 70 and women 60 years or more) the changes were found to be negligible. If the trend continues, the number of CHD deaths will decrease from 2002 to 2030 significantly among men [81% decrease; 95% credible interval (95% CI) 54-96%] and women (90%; 67-100%) aged 50-59. In the age group 60-79 the changes will be smaller and non-significant. In the oldest age group (80-99 years) the predicted increase in the number of deaths will be great, from 284 to 1297 (95% CI 474-2620) in men and from 722 to 1970 (717-4017) in women. Our predictions emphasize the significance of maintaining the recent decline of CHD mortality among middle-aged adults. Special attention should be paid to CHD mortality among men and women aged 80 and over. Considerable improvements in prevention and treatment are needed to compensate for the effects of ageing of the population.

Hypothesis: The Recent Decline in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality - Mainly a Shift From Fatal to Non-fatal Events?

Objectives- A marked, sequential decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality is established, but not its causes. Does it reflect modern treatment effects or a spinoff of primary prevention? The aim of this study was to explore this issue using a prospective cohort follow-up design. Design- In 1972-1975 and 1980-1982 Cohorts 1 (n = 613) and 2 (n = 667) of identical age (males, mean 56 years) were examined, and thereafter followed closely for 14 years. CHD risk- and treatment patterns, incidence of non-fatal myocardial infarctions (MIs) and total-, cardiovascular and CHD mortality rates were studied. Results- CHD risk factors were more favourable, medical treatment more aggressive and 14-years CHD mortality, as expected, lower in Cohort 2 (7.7%/4.8%, p = 0.032). However, hospital- and prospective ECG data revealed opposite trends in non-fatal cohort CHD incidence, and aggregated numbers of CHD deaths and non-fatal MI cases were 16.7%/16.0% in Cohort 1/2 (p = 0.90). Conclusions- A marked, sequential reduction in CHD mortality was followed by a reciprocal increase in non-fatal MIs. This phenomenon may prevail in low CHD-endemic areas, and may call for altered primary preventive measures for reduction in total CHD incidence.

The risk of coronary heart disease in non-smokers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke

This article addresses the controversial issue of whether non-smokers' exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) increases their risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD). Glantz and Parmley purport to provide toxicological and epidemiologic evidence in support of their contention that non-smokers who are exposed to ETS are more likely to develop CHD than non-smokers who are not so exposed. The toxicological evidence provided by Glantz and Parmley has been challenged by Wu and by Gori, among others. Moreover, the epidemiologic data considered by Glantz and Parmley are equivocal at best and do not include data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Studies (CPS-I) and (CPS-II and the National Mortality Followback Survey which, when added to the original epidemiologic database considered by Glantz and Parmley, indicate no statistically significant association. Furthermore, most of the epidemiologic studies indicate a myriad of biases and confounders that have not been adequately adjusted. Many primary risk factors that were identified in the premier heart disease study, the Framingham Study (Kannel et al.), including but not limited to ethnicity, family history, dietary habits, age, serum cholesterol, exercise and alcohol use, were either totally ignored or not adequately considered in the epidemiologic studies. It seems foolhardy, then, to claim an association as do Glantz and Parmley. But perhaps a more egregious breach of science is to predict a number of CHD deaths in non-smokers caused by ETS. Unfortunately, that is what Wells purports to do. When one considers all the available evidence, the only reasonable conclusion that can be reached is that no association has been established between ETS exposure in non-smokers and an increased risk of CHD. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effects of demographic shift on coronary heart disease mortality in a large migrant population at high risk

Asian immigrants to the United Kingdom and elsewhere are at greater risk of mortality and morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) than UK whites. This predisposition has yet to be explained. More than 63,000 Asian people, a high proportion of whom are under 40, live in Leicester. Projections of the local Asian and non-Asian populations indicate that numbers of Asian people in higher-risk age groups will more than double between 1988 and 2008. In the absence of effective intervention, numbers of CHD deaths among Asian people, and the prevalence of other manifestations of CHD in this group, will rise by an equivalent amount. This predicted shift in the ethnic distribution of CHD has important implications for the planning of acute services in Leicester. Our predictions also demonstrate both a valuable opportunity and a pressing need for local research into the aetiology of CHD among Asian people, upon which preventative strategies may be based.