Nuclear Weapons Research Articles

Economic Rationality and International Humanitarianism: Ryōkichi Sagane's Advocacy Regarding the Introduction of Foreign Nuclear Reactors to Japan.

The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident underscored the crucial role of nuclear engineering experts. However, the specific arguments and motivations of scientists advocating for the introduction of foreign reactors remain unclear. This study delves into the contribution of Ryōkichi Sagane (1905-1969), a prominent figure during their introduction, and analyzes the specifics of his arguments for the importation of reactors examining his motivations and background. Sagane, who studied nuclear physics in the U.S., gained expertise in nuclear experiments and became acquainted with American scientists. In the late 1950s, with the period of Japan's adoption of nuclear power, he understood the arguments of foreign and domestic experts and disseminated this information to the public. His claims for importation of reactors rested predominantly on the ground of economic and managerial rationality. Beyond mere rationalism, Sagane's drive for reactor introduction was rooted in international humanitarianism based on personal friendships that transcended national borders. The rhetoric of promoting nuclear power for the sake of humanity resonated with the nuclear energy policy of the U.S. during the early Cold War. However, unlike the motivation of the U.S. to suppress opposition to the development of nuclear weapons, Sagane's motivation arose from his scientific practice.

Distribution and sources of fallout 137Cs and 239+240Pu in equatorial and Southern Hemisphere reference soils

Abstract. Past nuclear weapons testing (NWT) and nuclear power plant (NPP) accidents have resulted in the ubiquitous deposition of radionuclides in the environment. These fallout radionuclides (FRNs) are considered the privileged markers (“golden spikes”) of the Anthropocene stratigraphic layers. Their deposition in the 1950s coincided with the “Great Acceleration”, which is characterized by large-scale shifts in the Earth's systems, including increased land-use change and soil degradation. Among the FRNs deposited globally, 137Cs has been the most commonly used to assess soil erosion and/or the chronology of sediment deposition, while 239+240Pu is an alternative soil erosion tracer and chronological marker that has been increasingly used due to a number of advantages. We compiled 137Cs and 239+240Pu data published from undisturbed (so-called “reference”) soils in the equatorial and Southern Hemisphere regions to build a database within the framework of the AVATAR (A reVised dATing framework for quantifying geomorphological processes during the Anthropocene) project. Using this database, named the AVATAR-Soils Database, we determined the distribution of 137Cs and 239+240Pu inventories in equatorial and Southern Hemisphere soils, along with the relative contributions of different fallout nuclear weapon sources by analyzing their isotopic ratios. Additionally, we demonstrated how the database can be used to identify the environmental factors that influence the distribution of 137Cs and 239+240Pu in reference soils by applying a machine learning algorithm. Our meta-analysis revealed that high 137Cs and 239+240Pu inventories were recorded near the Equator and within the 20–40° S latitudinal bands, which coincide with the location of multiple NWT locations. The 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratios suggest that sources other than the global fallout (primarily from US and USSR weapon testing with a 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratio of ∼ 0.18) contributed to the reference inventories in the Southern Hemisphere. These additional sources have been relatively neglected so far. Based on the 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratios, we have estimated that the French fallout contributed ∼ 20 % to the reference soil 239+240Pu inventories in South America and up to 70 % in French Polynesia. In contrast, the British fallout contributed ∼ 27 % to the reference soil 239+240Pu inventories in the rest of Oceania. Our machine learning algorithm identified the precipitation of the coldest quarter, longitude, and latitude as the strongest predictors of the 137Cs inventory. For the 239+240Pu inventory, the mean diurnal temperature range, the annual temperature range, and the precipitation of the driest quarter were the strongest predictors. Altogether, these findings demonstrate the potential of the AVATAR-Soils Database as a resource for improving our understanding of the distribution and sources of 137Cs and 239+240Pu in equatorial and Southern Hemisphere soils and refining their application as tools in various Earth science research. The AVATAR-Soils Database may be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14008221 (Dicen et al., 2024).

Reducing Proliferation Risks with High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium Fuels in Reactors with Coated-Particle (TRISO) Fuels

The use of graphite-matrix tri-structural-isotropic (TRISO) fuels in high-temperature reactors with high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) can significantly reduce nuclear weapons proliferation risks relative to other fuels and reactor types. The HALEU fuel, with fuels containing 15% to 20% 235U enable used nuclear fuels (UNFs) with thermal neutron–spectrum burnups between 150 000 and 200 000 MWd per ton. At these high burnups, the plutonium isotopics make the direct use for nuclear weapons unattractive and the uranium isotopics unattractive as a feed to a uranium-enrichment plant. On the front end, it would require the theft of ~150 000 pebbles with uranium just under 20% 235U to create the theoretical potential to produce sufficient material for one weapon (1000 kg), which is about a 2-year supply of fuel for these reactors. The chemical and mechanical processing requirements to convert fresh TRISO fuel to uranium metal for use in a nuclear weapon are beyond nonstate actors. Over 10 sequential chemical process steps would be required, plus uranium recovery from waste streams, to avoid large uranium losses in the conversion processes. If a nation-state wanted to make a nuclear weapon starting with HALEU fuel, they would enrich the HALEU from 19.95% to over 90% 235U, which presumes they already possess enrichment capabilities and can use any uranium feedstock. If enriched to weapons-grade 235U, 1 ton of HALEU has sufficient 235U for multiple weapons. Separately, it is not clear if a weapon can actually be built with HALEU fuel. The fuel characteristics also reduce risks from sabotage. Consequently, we conclude that reactor safeguards for fresh HALEU TRISO fuel can be similar to those for low-enriched uranium light water reactor fuel; that is, no requirements for added security or other measures. TRISO UNF safeguards and security can be significantly relaxed relative to the requirements for other types of UNF at the reactor site.

The Changing Contours of India’s Arms Control and Disarmament Policy

India has been at the forefront of the global nuclear disarmament campaign. However, in recent decades, its relationship with the global nuclear disarmament regime has undergone a subtle change. While in the pre-1998 phase, India pursued the cause of global nuclear disarmament vociferously; in the aftermath of the May 1998 tests, the country reoriented the thrust of its nuclear diplomacy by directing more policy thrust on arms control and non-proliferation while largely de-emphasising time-bound global nuclear disarmament. The signing of the Indo-US nuclear deal in 2008 heralded a new initiative in India’s engagement with the global nuclear order. Currently, India’s diplomatic energies are devoted towards gaining membership of the global nuclear rule-making architecture. While India occasionally reiterates its commitment to the cause of global nuclear disarmament, India, in recent years, has not made any new disarmament proposals. Notably, while India welcomes any disarmament and arms control proposal that aligns with its own preferences, it steadfastly opposes any initiative that threatens its nuclear status. With the global nuclear disarmament and arms control regime in complete disarray, it is time for India to seize the moment and regain its historical leadership role by reframing and re-energising the cause of nuclear disarmament on the global agenda.

Dr. Strangelove is Back: Gender, Laughter, and AI in US Policy Discourses on the Development of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems

Lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) are being developed and deployed in conflicts with lethal effects. These weapons systems act with limited human oversight and have the potential to radically change how, when, and why war is conducted. The article develops a novel feminist methodology of rendering ‘serious’ policy documents as ‘silly’ to challenge the ‘Cold War’ narratives used to advocate for the development of LAWS. The article engages with feminist nuclear weapons scholarship and literatures on popular culture and world politics and humour in world politics. Reading the report from the US National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence through the lens of Stanley Kubrick’s film Dr Strangelove, the article unpacks the implications of three latent themes: politics as a game, inevitability, and ir/rationality. These themes provide the means to articulate and challenge arguments proposing the development of LAWS.

Time Zero

Abstract Nuclear weapons’ effect on time is similar to their effect on space. They produce Ground Zero and Time Zero. Their effect is so totalizing that the belief of many people of color, that the weapons are racialized, might seem ridiculous. The first atomic bombs were dropped after only one test, when a possibility loomed that they would destroy all life. But they were dropped on an enemy people who were racialized by the bomb’s most ardent defenders. Soldier-scholar Paul Fussell, who insisted that the bomb saved his life, also insisted that the Pacific War was a race war. Since 1945, activist writers and scholars of color have called the bomb the whitest of weapons. Furthermore, the mandate for colonization and racism is extermination of all “brutes” – a mandate most efficiently realized by a totalizing weapon. Ultimately, Time Zero forecloses the future, and the mandate for the future, especially among racialized others, must include disarmament.

Amitav Ghosh's Countdown: A Crusade against Nuclear Proliferation

This paper explores Amitav Ghosh's Countdown (1999) and foregrounds his reactions to the testing of nuclear weapons in India on 11th May 1998, followed instantly by the Pakistani tests. The travelogue follows the extraordinary journeys of Ghosh to search for people's impression about the tests. He is apprehensive about the complexities of the nuclear issues and interconnectedness of the fate of both India and Pakistan. He forewarns that the tests will engender fatal consequences and give rise not only to geo-political tension between the two neighbouring countries but also precipitate horrendous and hair-raising disaster on humans, environment and the world itself. He prognosticates impending dooms lurking around in the world on the brink of environmental ruination, human genocide, and ravages of human civilization. Nuclear test, for Ghosh, is a symbol of mutually assured destruction, and therefore, he appeals for addressing the crises to be caused by the testing of nuclear devices. The objective of this paper is to gauge the trepidation and insidious effects of nuclear proliferation, and to unmask the hidden motives behind the nuclear tests. The research is effectuated by means of close textual analysis of the text.

American Public Opinion on US Responses to Russia's Nuclear Threats in Ukraine

ABSTRACTSince Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Vladimir Putin's nuclear threats have reshaped the global nuclear landscape, potentially altering public attitudes toward nuclear deterrence and weapons use. This article examines American preferences for United States responses—nuclear, conventional, or nonmilitary—to three hypothetical scenarios involving Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Drawing on data from the 2022 National Security Survey by the Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, we find that the American public generally favors conventional military responses over nuclear options, even in the face of increased nuclear threats. Qualitative analysis reveals that respondents primarily apply a “logic of consequences,” prioritizing strategic military utility over ethical or normative concerns when considering responses. These findings have significant implications for US nuclear policy and the theoretical discourse on nuclear nonuse.

“Hope the Russians Love Their Children Too”: Russian Public Support for the Use of Nuclear Weapons after the Invasion of Ukraine

Abstract Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, experts have expressed concerns that Moscow’s nuclear saber-rattling may have eroded the “nuclear taboo” and led to increased support for the use of nuclear weapons in Russian society. To investigate public attitudes toward nuclear use in Russia, we conducted a preregistered survey experiment on a representative sample of the Russian population. Our results show that despite significant shifts in the regional security environment, the Kremlin’s belligerent rhetoric, and calls for nuclear strikes from politicians, experts, and journalists, public support for using nuclear weapons against NATO has remained virtually unchanged post-invasion. We suggest that this remarkable stability of the “atomic aversion” may stem from two countervailing factors: normalization of the idea of nuclear use in Russian society and deterrence through heightened concerns about NATO’s retaliation. Our findings also demonstrate that Russian citizens disapprove of nuclear weapon use similarly in scenarios involving a conflict over Crimea with Ukraine and a Russia–NATO conflict in the Baltics. However, we observed a somewhat stronger public approval of a demonstrative nuclear explosion, a policy option recently proposed by Russian military experts. Our findings contribute to the scholarly literature on the strength of the nuclear nonuse norm in non-Western countries and to ongoing policy debates regarding domestic constraints on the Kremlin’s decision to use nuclear weapons to achieve foreign policy objectives.

Nuclear Weapons in Crisis Situations

Abstract Why did the Soviet Union and the United States refrain from using nuclear weapons during Cold War crises, and what can we learn from their restraint in navigating today’s confrontation fraught with nuclear threats? This paper examines the crucial lessons from Cold War nuclear standoffs to provide insight into the growing nuclear risks in today’s geopolitical landscape, particularly in the context of Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. By analysing the Berlin and Cuban Missile Crises, the study explores how both sides pursued military-political confrontation under the threat of nuclear annihilation. Drawing parallels between these historical events and current tensions, the paper concludes with how Cold War nuclear strategies and crisis management could potentially guide present-day efforts to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict.

Approaches to harmonize mortality data sets in three diverse radiation worker cohorts.

While there is a well-established link between ionizing radiation and cancer, there are uncertainties with effects following low doses delivered at low dose rates. To address these gaps, the ongoing Million Person Study of Radiation Workers and Veterans (MPS) is investigating the likelihood of a variety of cancer and non-cancer effects following chronic exposure to low dose-rate ionizing radiation. One challenge is and will be combining and harmonizing diverse cohorts with widely different measures of socio-economic status, birth cohorts, dose distributions and sex ratios. Herein, we have evaluated non-cancer mortality in three cohorts for which dose reconstructions have been completed: Rocketdyne (Atomics International, California, 1948-2008), Mound (Dayton, Ohio, 1944-2009) and nuclear weapons test participants (Atomic Veterans, 1945-2012). These three cohorts represent a small fraction of the overall MPS but provide valuable insight into methods of combining and harmonizing data from multiple diverse cohorts that can later be considered for all MPS cohorts. Heart disease mortality, including both underlying and contributing causes of death, was chosen for illustrating the statistical approaches. In all three cohorts, radiation dose estimates were distributed very differently by different measures of socio-economic status. Further, the effect of birth cohort was significantly different for heart disease mortality in all three cohorts, with all studies showing that later birth cohorts have lower rates of heart disease mortality than the earlier. The goal of this paper is not to quantify radiation effects based on these combined cohorts and it would be inappropriate to do so. Rather these cohorts are used to illustrate approaches for combining multiple data sets that incorporate the full set of individual confounder and cofactor information available from each cohort, though widely different. We identified five different methods to combine the results of these three datasets: the simple pooled analysis (PA), PA including study interactions, traditional stratified analysis, and both fixed and random effects meta-analysis. We describe the similarities and differences between the combined results using these approaches.

Российская политика ядерного сдерживания: история и перспективы

The object of the study is the historically changing policy of Russia in the sphere of handling nuclear weapons. The purpose of the article is to study and clarify the effect of Russian and international norms in the field of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. The study used the dialectical method of scientific cognition, as well as a number of specific scientific methods: historical, logical, normative and legal, etc. The issues of development of the Russian nuclear doctrine, as well as international treaties aimed at curbing the nuclear arms race are considered. In practical terms, the problem of the need for new approaches in the Russian policy of using nuclear weapons in order to ensure national security is studied. It is noted that the current international military-political situation resembles the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. An analysis of the causes of the current situation is carried out and the steps taken by the Russian leadership to further develop the policy of nuclear deterrence are substantiated.

Responsibility and anxiety in the ‘Pacific family’: AUKUS as a source of ontological insecurity

ABSTRACT In 2021 Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced a trilateral defence partnership (AUKUS) that provided, among other things, Australia access to nuclear-powered submarines. This partnership was received with anxiety by the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to whom climate change is considered the single greatest threat over traditional militaristic security. This article analyses AUKUS from the perspective of Ontological Security Studies (OSS) and its analytical concepts of anxiety and ontological (in)security. By looking at the contemporary existential threat of the climate crisis as well as the traumatic history of the Pacific region as a nuclear weapons testing ground, the article contributes to the study of existential threats in the Pacific region. It argues that due to its capabilities and proximity, as well as its self-claimed identity as a member of the ‘Pacific family’, Australia as a party to AUKUS has a responsibility to mitigate the ontological insecurities of its family members.

LEGAL AND POLITICAL ASPECTS OF SOVIET-GERMAN URANIUM MINING IN THE SOVIET OCCUPATION ZONE OF GERMANY (SBZ) AND THE GDR

The Soviet nuclear weapons programme, which was stepped up from 1945, required a lot of uranium. The Soviet Union itself only had a few small deposits in the Central Asian Soviet republics. It was dependent on uranium from countries in its sphere of influence. This included the Soviet Occupied Zone, from which the Soviet Union was to receive its reparations for war damage caused by Germany in accordance with the Potsdam resolutions of the three Allies. The Soviet Occupation Zone had suspected uranium deposits in the Saxon Ore Mountains, which, together with neighbouring deposits discovered in Thuringia, developed into the largest deposits in the entire socialist camp with the delivery of around 216,000 tonnes of enriched uranium. The article deals with the legal and political aspects of this uranium mining, which was initially purely Soviet from 1945 to 1953 and Soviet-German from 1954 onwards.

Stability and change in nuclear thinking: Grand strategy, nuclear weapons, and policy change

ABSTRACT What explains when states shift how they understand the utility of their nuclear weapons? Existing literature offers mechanisms that should be expected to inhibit change, but does not offer an explanation for when those mechanisms might be overcome. I argue that in periods of grand strategic change – when a state’s political-military strategy is in flux – the forces inhibiting shifts of nuclear thinking are more likely to be overcome. Grand strategic change, therefore, may be a necessary condition for changes in nuclear thinking. I examine the cases of the United States and South Africa at the end of the Cold War. My argument offers a plausible explanation for the different outcomes observed: the failed efforts to shift U.S. thinking in the Clinton administration and the South African decision to dismantle its nuclear arsenal. The argument has implications for our understanding of the role that nuclear weapons play in international politics and current policy debates.

Russian Novel Nuclear Weapons and War-Fighting Capabilities

Russian Novel Nuclear Weapons and War-Fighting Capabilities

Mexico and the Balancing of Nuclear Perils and Promises in the 1960s

ABSTRACT Conventional interpretations of the origins of the global nuclear order are incomplete. In the 1960s, the representatives of eighteen countries, including Mexico, drafted the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). While these negotiations took place, Mexico led a Latin American process to create the first nuclear-weapon-free zone (NWFZ) in a densely populated area with the Treaty of Tlatelolco. Mexican representatives purposedly linked these lawmaking processes. They used the Treaty of Tlatelolco precedent and coalition to amplify their voice in the NPT debates. They also ensured that the NPT did not interfere with the consolidation of the NWFZ.

Transforming Discourse, Driving Change: Gendered Nuclear Identities and the Soviet Union’s Shift to Disarmament in the 1980s

In the late 1980s, breaking with decades of aggressive nuclear armament, the Soviet Union changed the course of its nuclear policy to promoting arms control and reducing nuclear stockpiles. This significant policy shift requires examination to support ongoing efforts in disarmament. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine highlights the importance of strengthening disarmament initiatives and international dialogues on arms control. Rational deterrence explanations, predicated on the idea that states must possess and retain nuclear weapons to deter adversaries, become self-fulfilling prophecies and entangle states in perpetual security dilemmas. This article argues that transformative shifts in nuclear politics are contingent upon discursive reconfigurations of states’ gendered nuclear identities. Employing a feminist poststructuralist lens, the analysis reveals how Mikhail Gorbachev’s ‘peace offensive’ redefined Soviet nuclear identity by reshaping masculinities and constructing a cooperative, ethical and disarmament-oriented Self. This article highlights the importance of discursive shifts in advancing arms control and reimagining nuclear politics beyond entrenched militaristic and masculine norms.

Hybrid War against Russia as a Pattern of Development of Secular Cycles of Hegemony and Its Tooling Backup (рart 2)

The second part of the article proves the inevitability of a marked aggravation of international frictions between superpowers during the transition to a new global cycle of hegemony, which, considering the presence of powerful nuclear weapons, takes on new forms, becoming a hybrid war. The specifi c features of hybrid war are described in detail in comparison with traditional forms of warfare and the reasons behind the fact that modern Russia had to become the main object of hybrid aggression, especially during the intensifi cation of the Russian-Ukrainian confl ict, are explained. The idea is coherently advocated that the main goal of the United States and the NATO alliance headed by it is not so much to infl ict a strategic defeat to our country on the battlefi eld as its economic exhaustion, undermining the fi nancial system to reduce the possibilities of forming a full-fl edged defence budget. Important structural components of the instrumental support of the hybrid war that are recognised as provoking are a population decline and a nationwide migration crisis, as well as deliberate manipulation of prices for exported Russian products.

In the Heart of Liberal Democracy: Whitewashing Authoritarian Surveillance a Decade After the Snowden Revelations

Practices of authoritarian surveillance are not limited to so-called authoritarian states. Authoritarian surveillance has been increasingly witnessed in countries that uphold liberal democratic principles and institutions in the twenty-first century, along with accelerated automation of mass surveillance. This article situates authoritarian surveillance as a problem in the heart of democracy and capitalism in its materiality and imperial expansion and discusses how mass surveillance has redrawn boundaries of democratic principles. What Edward Snowden has revealed since 2013 is a good reminder of the materiality of the global surveillance networks built under the “War on Terror” that we still live in. They are embedded within digital communication infrastructures by the security agencies in the United States, the self-defined champion of liberal democracy. Nonetheless, a decade after the Snowden revelations, the authoritarian surveillance within democracy has been whitewashed in technological competitions with the Global South, such as China and India, and in tech-savvy culture in the Global North. What is the driving force of this oblivion? In a contrast with the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance, I highlight the exceptional position given to the security intelligence and policing agencies within liberal democratic institutions to generate authoritarian surveillance continuously from the imperial to postcolonial times. It is critically important to deconstruct the binary discourse of democratic states versus authoritarian states because this view tends to only problematize surveillance activities by countries located outside the “West” and sees authoritarian surveillance practiced by self-defined democratic states as harmless or even necessary to counter perceived authoritarian states. It further fuels global dissemination of surveillance technologies, just like the nuclear arms races, and produces more victims of authoritarian surveillance on earth, without borders.