Northwest Power Planning Council Research Articles

What is ‘normative’ at cooling water intakes? Defining normalcy before judging adverse

Judgments of adverse environmental impact from cooling water intake structures need to be preceded by an appreciation of what is normal. In its report, Return to the River , the Independent Scientific Group (now called the Independent Scientific Advisory Board) — the scientific peer review arm of the Northwest Power Planning Council — advanced the notion of a ‘normative river ecosystem’ as a new conceptual foundation for salmonid recovery in the Columbia River basin. With this perspective, the sum of the best scientific understanding of how organisms and aquatic ecosystems function should be the norm or standard of measure for how we judge the effects of human activities on aquatic systems. For the best likelihood of recovery, key aspects of altered systems should be brought back toward normative (although not necessarily fully back to the historical or pristine state); new alterations should be judged for adversity by how much they move key attributes away from normative or what might be considered normal. In this paper, I ask what ‘normative’ is for the setting of cooling water intake structures and how this concept could help resolve long-standing disputes between groups interested in avoiding damage to all organisms that might be entrained or impinged and those who take a more population or community perspective for judging adverse environmental impact. In essence, I suggest that if a water intake does not move the aquatic ecosystem outside the ‘normative’ range, based on expressions of normalcy such as those discussed, then no adverse impact has occurred. Having an explicit baseline in normal or normative would place 316(b) analyses on the same conceptual foundation as 316(a) analyses, which strive to demonstrate the continuation of a balanced, indigenous community of aquatic organisms at the power station location.

Return to the River: Scientific Issues in the Restoration of Salmonid Fishes in the Columbia River

Abstract The Columbia River once was one of the most productive river basins for anadromous salmonids on the West Coast of North America; however, its current runs total less than 10% of historic levels. The Independent Scientific Group (ISG) of the Northwest Power Planning Council reviewed regional salmon management actions described in the Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program and concluded that the current program is unlikely to recover declining salmon and steelhead stocks. Adoption of a salmon life history ecosystem concept as a guiding foundation is needed to recover depressed stocks. Increasing natural ecosystem processes and functions should rebuild salmon populations to more abundant, productive, and stable levels. Elements of a salmon recovery program that increase these normative conditions include restoration of habitat for all life history stages (including migrations), reduction of mortality sources (including harvesters), planning of hydropower mitigation measures in the context of...

What is “Normative” for Fish Pathogens? A Perspective on the Controversy over Interactions between Wild and Cultured Fish

In its report, Return to the River, the Independent Scientific Group (now called the Independent Scientific Advisory Board—the scientific peer review arm of the Northwest Power Planning Council) advanced the notion of a “normative river ecosystem” as a new conceptual foundation for salmonid recovery in the Columbia River basin. With this perspective, the sum of the best scientific understanding of how organisms and aquatic ecosystems naturally function should be the norm or standard of measure for how we judge the effects of human activities on aquatic systems. For the best likelihood of recovery, key aspects of altered systems should be brought back toward normative (although not necessarily fully back to the historical or pristine state); new alterations should be judged by how much they move key functions away from normative or what might be considered as normal. In this paper, I ask what “normative” is for fish pathogens and how this concept could help resolve the long-standing disputes between fish culturists and advocates of wild fish in fisheries management. Through literature review and parallels with the evolution of infectious diseases in human populations, I suggest that the concept can be useful for understanding and controlling pathogens and diseases of fish in aquatic ecosystems. One key to avoiding disease outbreaks appears to be maintenance of normal diversity in fish pathogens, intermediate hosts, and immunological types in fish. I encourage further exploration of the normative perspective as a guide to our research and evaluations of pathogens and diseases of fish.

Shifting River Management Toward Salmon Restoration in the Columbia River Basin

The Columbia River Basin is the site of a conflict over two resources in the Pacific Northwest: hydroelectricity and Pacific salmon. The construction of hydroelectric facilities and subsequent modification of flows to accommodate demands for electricity have resulted in the precipitous decline of salmon in the Columbia. Once abundant in Northwest rivers and streams, Pacific salmon now are threatened. Since 1981, one of the primary institutions working toward salmon restoration, the Pacific Northwest Power Planning Council, has attempted to balance these two resources in conflict. This paper provides an examination of the Council’s attempt to shift river operations toward salmon restoration through a key measure called the Water Budget. Factors that impacted the Council’s ability to shift priorities in the Columbia toward salmon restoration while accommodating the Northwest’s demand for hydroelectric power will be examined as well as the costs and benefits associated with the changes.

COMPASS AND GYROSCOPE : INTEGRATING SCIENCE AND POLITICS

Review by James M. Peek, Ph.D. Professor of Wildlife Resources, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USA. TEL: 208-885-7120. Lee, Kai N. COMPASS AND GYROSCOPE : INTEGRATING SCIENCE AND POLITICS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT. Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1993. 243 pp. US$16.95 cloth ISBN: 1-55963-197-X. Recycled, acid-free paper. In today's world, scientific advances and social problems seem to exist in ignorance of each other. With COMPASS AND GYROSCOPE, Kai Lee illustrates a way to make a connection. He has the temerity to address the conundrum by using the Columbia River Basin of the Pacific Northwest as a case study. The compass of the title refers to adaptive management. The point is made that as we seek to manage and sustain the world's major ecosystems, we face uncertainty and must acknowledge it. Politically, this is risky because leadership must identify the costs of information gathering and acknowledge failures. The word gyroscope describes negotiation and bounded conflict, which is our disagreement within prescribed limits as we seek agreement. Adaptive management, bounded conflict, and negotiation all seem to encourage the notion of progress. Such discussions are especially relevant today as salmon stocks decline, fishing is curtailed, and land uses are modified. Meanwhile, controversy increases. Even the Northwest Power Planning Council, established to recommend and develop equable solutions to the Pacific Northwest's water-related problems, has come under fire and is targeted for elimination. Lee aptly compares the situation to other large-scale ecosystem experiences, including: the Queensland Tropical Forest of Australia, which was heavily and controversially logged; the state of Washington's attempt to coordinate resource management through the legislatively mandated Timber, Fish, and Wildlife Program; and the Canadian Salmon Enhancement Program. An alternative to adaptive management called cybernetic learning is also examined, as is an organization's institutional barriers to using available information. There are extensive notes appended, including a section called Notes on Sources. A very useful bibliography rounds out the volume. Resource scientists and others who are interested in the sustainable development of natural resources will find this work an essential aid to better understanding. It requires close study, and is not light reading. While it seems self-evident to many that we must find a solution to what our natural resources can sustain in the way of their use and perpetuation, COMPASS AND GYROSCOPE discusses such difficult issues in an objective and scholarly fashion. The author's insights as a member of the Planning Council and other experiences provide invaluable material as well. This volume can serve as a reference to a variety of resource management courses. It is a highly objective treatment of a pressing issue in today's world, most especially in the Pacific Northwest.

COMPASS AND GYROSCOPE : INTEGRATING SCIENCE AND POLITICS

Review by Joseph G. Dlhopolsky, Ph.D. or Experimental Psychologist, 27 Wilson St., Port Jefferson Station, NY 11776, USA. TEL: 516-928-4475. Lee, Kai N. COMPASS AND GYROSCOPE : INTEGRATING SCIENCE AND POLITICS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT. Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 1993. 243 pp. US$16.95 paper ISBN: 1-55963-198-8. Recycled, acid-free paper. COMPASS AND GYROSCOPE presents a theoretical and practical guide to achieving sustainable development amid the conflicting forces of development pressures and environmental preservation. Kai N. Lee acknowledges the needs of resource developers. Also recognizing the need to protect ecosystems, he attempts to describe how both inclinations can be satisfied. His conciliatory approach is likely to interest resource managers who are seeking a path to sustainable development. However, environmentalists might be dismayed at what they perceive as a lack of fervor. Industrialists, harking back to the good old days of no restraints, might see the book as much ado about nothing. Much of Lee's thesis is based upon his experience as Washington State representative to the Northwest Power Planning Council. That Council was charged with seeking cost-effective solutions to the collapse of the salmon fisheries on the Columbia River, a collapse that had been caused by the relatively unrestrained construction of hydroelectric dams. A crisis ensued when Native Americans sued for and won treaty- guaranteed fishing rights. This threatened to further deplete the already reduced fish stocks available to industry. The strategies that the Council developed to satisfy the contending parties led Lee to conceptualize what he calls adaptive management and bounded conflict, the compass and gyroscope of his book's title. According to Lee, science is crucial. It is the compass that points toward sustainable development. He envisions a group of civic scientists whom he hopes will carry out experimental science with reformist zeal. They will provide data for and also promote scientifically justified policies. Lee urges policy-makers to support this endeavor. Moreover, because science continually moves forward, policy-makers must be willing to adapt to changing scientific knowledge. In other words, they must be adaptive managers. Lee recognizes that political and economic forces will seek to maintain a status quo. This is the gyroscope of the title. Disparate goals lead inevitably to conflict, which Lee sees as necessary for social learning. Social learning in turn is necessary for finding an appropriate path to sustainable development. Toward this end, the policy-maker should seek to make conflict bounded. That is, he or she should strive to use any of several techniques which Lee describes that will make the conflict manageable. Achieving such an end will make progress attainable. Environmentalists may be uncomfortable with Lee's tacit acceptance of sustainable development. Perhaps treatment of this concept goes beyond the book's scope. However, it is an important and contentious issue that is far from being resolved. Many scientists believe that population and development pressures have already carried the Earth past the point of sustainable development. If true, Lee's promotion of more development undermines his position as an environmental scholar. One case study that he cites is particularly illustrative. In 1987, the wet tropical forest of northern Queensland, Australia was declared a

The Politics of Restoring versus Restocking Salmon in the Columbia River

AbstractThis essay reviews the recent attempts by the Northwest Power Planning and Conservation Council (NPPC) to conserve and restore wild salmon lost to hydroelectric development along the Columbia River and its tributaries. The restoration of the wild salmon is predicated on cooperation between myriad stakeholders in a planning process that includes the NPPC, 11 state and federal agencies, 13 Indian tribes, 8 utilities, and numerous interest groups. The two goals of the essay are (1) to review the recent amendments to the NPPC's fish and wildlife program, and (2) to describe the political barriers to restoration versus restocking of wild salmon in the Columbia River. The failure of political and administrative entities to deal with the problem of restoring wild salmon may result in drastic requirements being imposed by the imperatives of the Endangered Species Act.

Everyone wins! — A program to upgrade energy efficiency in manufactured housing

Other regions might well benefit from this case history, illustrating how a region marshalled its resources to bring manufactured housing--a significant share of its new residential sector--into the modern era of energy efficiency. Everyone was a winner. In the Pacific Northwest, as in many parts of the country, a significant proportion of new homes are HUD-code manufactured, or so-called mobile, homes. About 25% of new single-family houses in the Pacific Northwest are manufactured homes. They represent an even larger share - nearly 40% - of new electrically heated housing in the region, and this share has been growing. When Congress enacted the Pacific Northwest Power Planning Act of 1980, it also permitted the four Northwest states to establish an interstate compact body - the Northwest Power Planning Council - and required the Council to produce an integrated resource plan for the region served by the Bonneville Power Administration, the federal power marketing and transmission agency that operates the region's major transmission grid and sells most of its bulk power. Both the law and the plan charge Bonneville with developing cost-effective programs to save electricity in all end-use sectors through improved energy efficiency.

Implementation and Evaluation of the Water Budget

Abstract The Northwest Power Act established the Northwest Power Planning Council to coordinate hydrosystem operations by developing a program “to protect, mitigate, and enhance” the Columbia River basin's anadromous salmonid resources. The language and legislative history of the act demonstrate the intent of Congress that the basin's power planners consider anadromous fish “co-equal partners” with hydrosystem operations and planning. An important and controversial element of the council's Fish and Wildlife Program is the water budget, a program that allows fish and wildlife agencies to help determine flow levels in the basin during the peak of juvenile downstream migration. Execution of the water budget has been difficult due to its lack of an authoritative management strategy, limited scope, and the absence of firm implementation guidelines. Implementation problems that have plagued the water budget since its inception make judging the efficacy of the program difficult. Evaluation of the water budget co...

Unconventional Power: Energy Efficiency and Environmental Rehabilitation Under the Northwest Power Act

INTRODUCTION By 1982, when electric power celebrated its centennial, the industry that grew from Thomas Edison's legendary Pearl Street station faced a deep uncertainty: whether the demand for electricity would continue to growl-and if it did not, *Mcmber representing the state of Washington, Northwest Power Planning Council, 19831987. I In 1982 total sales of electricity declined over the previous year, and the long-term trend looked ominous as well:

The Yakima/Klickitat Fisheries Project: A Strategy for Supplementation of Anadromous Salmonids

Abstract On 15 October 1987, the Northwest Power Planning Council approved a master plan for the Yakima/Klickitat Fisheries Project. The purpose of this unique experimental project was to increase both natural production and harvest of anadromous salmonids in the Yakima and Klickitat rivers, major tributaries of the Columbia River system, through supplementation and habitat protection. The Bonneville Power Administration provides general management of the project, and funds construction and operation with revenues from Pacific Northwest electric rate payers. Studies indicate that egg incubation, rearing, and out-planting facilities in the Yakima and Klickitat subbasins will supplement natural production and increase harvest benefits. We summarize predesign studies requested by the Council as necessary to precede construction and discuss the uncertainties and concerns associated with the project. This experimental approach to supplementation may provide information useful for rebuilding salmonid stocks in ...

Benefits and costs of flexibility—Short-lead-time power plants

Electric utilities face unprecedented uncertainties that complicate long-term resource planning. As a consequence, many utilities emphasize small resources that can be constructed quickly. However, insufficient data and analysis exist to adequately assess this risk-reduction strategy. This paper compares the benefits of such flexible resources (including energy-efficiency and load-management programs) with their costs, relative to large, long-lead-time power plants. The program flexibility benefits computed for various examples amount to 2–20 per cent. Cost estimates from the Northwest Power Planning Council suggest that these benefits are generally not enough to justify the higher costs of small power plants. However, the benefits are more than sufficient to justify the incremental costs associated with expansion of simple-cycle combustion turbines to combined-cycle operation. Also, the benefits amply justify application of the Council's option-and-build strategy. The first stage of their strategy involves the time-consuming but inexpensive activities of siting, designing, and licensing the plant. Then, the plant can be constructed, the site can be held as an option for several years, or the plans can be terminated. This strategy permits the second stage (construction) to be timed to match changes in load growth at very little cost. Utility conservation and load-management programs can provide substantial flexibility benefits. These benefits are a consequence of the ease with which such programs can be adjusted to match load growth. Relative to construction of a single 600 MW power plant, implementing the demand-side program described here cuts electricity price by 10 per cent, 50–100 per cent more than do small, short-lead-time power plants.

Benefits and cost of flexibility—Short-lead-time power plants

Abstract Electric utilities face unprecedented uncertainties that complicate long-term resource planning. As a consequence, many utilities emphasize small resources that can be constructed quickly. However, insufficient data and analysis exist to adequately assess this risk-reduction strategy. This paper compares the benefits of such flexible resources (including energy-efficiency and load-management programs) with their costs, relative to large, long-lead-time power plants. The program flexibility benefits computed for various examples amount to 2–20 per cent. Cost estimates from the Northwest Power Planning Council suggest that these benefits are generally not enough to justify the higher costs of small power plants. However, the benefits are more than sufficient to justify the incremental costs associated with expansion of simple-cycle combustion turbines to combined-cycle operation. Also, the benefits amply justify application of the Council's option-and-build strategy. The first stage of their strategy involves the time-consuming but inexpensive activities of siting, designing, and licensing the plant. Then, the plant can be constructed, the site can be held as an option for several years, or the plans can be terminated. This strategy permits the second stage (construction) to be timed to match changes in load growth at very little cost. Utility conservation and load-management programs can provide substantial flexibility benefits. These benefits are a consequence of the ease with which such programs can be adjusted to match load growth. Relative to construction of a single 600 MW power plant, implementing the demand-side program described here cuts electricity price by 10 per cent, 50–100 per cent more than do small, short-lead-time power plants.

Least-cost planning on a regional basis: A case study

Can a nonutility agency formed by four states take the lead in least-cost resource planning The Northwest Power Planning Council has done so, but its real test may lie ahead. The Northwest has already spent more than $1 billion on efficiency efforts and acquired at least 350 megawatts of electricity savings at less than half the cost of the same amount of coal-generated power. The article describes the expensive lessons of history and the council's six-step planning process. The keystone of the council's planning philosophy is express recognition of the uncertainty surrounding virtually every aspect of energy planning. 4 figs.

Thermal performance monitoring results from the residential standards demonstration program

The Model Conservation Standards (MCS) were developed by the Northwest Power Planning Council in 1983. These standards were designed to save large amounts of space heating energy in new U.S. residential construction in the Pacific Northwest. Creation of the MCS resulted in a desire to demonstrate the actual savings of such energy efficiency standards. The Bonneville Power Administration sponsored the Residential Standards Demonstration Program (RSDP) in 1984 which resulted in the construction of 410 energy-efficient single-family homes in the four-state region. Typically these buildings incorporated design features such as high levels of insulation for attic, walls and floors, triple-glazed windows and airtight construction with heat-recovery ventilation. These MCS dwellings have been compared against another group of 410 new, but conventional homes in the Northwest to determine the actual savings of such efficiency standards for space heat. Each house was monitored for at least one year using a triple metering system that recorded energy use for space heat, domestic hot water and appliances. Average interior and exterior temperatures were also collected during the monitoring period. Extensive data was assembled from audit and survey information on the construction of the homes, their heating systems and other occupancy-related characteristics. This paper both summarizes results of the RSDP project and scrutinizes certain aspects associated with the buildings' monitored thermal performance. Monitored space heat savings for the energy-efficient MCS houses compared to the control buildings averaged 27.5 kWh/m 2 of floor area for the overall sample of 524 houses. Data analysis showed that differing levels of insulation in the buildings is the most powerful explanation for these differences. The program also illustrated how collection of simple end-use metering data can provide insight into the energy-use characteristics of residential buildings. Among other findings, we discovered that the type of heating system plays a large role in determining the relative efficiency of electrically heated houses. Residences with electric forced-air heating systems used an average of 15.9 kWh/m 2 more space heating energy than those without them. Houses with heat pumps or those using wood as their primary heat source used much less space heat electricity. We also discovered that houses with fireplaces tended to use more space heat energy. The study also examined infiltration and ventilation-related measures on the houses using fan pressurization and perfluorocarbon tracer gas (PFT) tests. We found that the RSDP control homes, intended to be representative of of current building practice in the Pacific Northwest, have relatively low rates of natural air infiltration — an average of about 0.4 air changes per hour (ACH). The natural air infiltration rate of the MCS houses tended to be tighter, on the order of 0.25 ACH. Air-to-air heat exchangers in the MCS houses were used an average of 9 h per day, and increased the overall ventilation rate in these homes to about 0.35 ACH.

Hydroelectric Dams and the Decline of Chinook Salmon in the Columbia River Basin

The decline of chinook salmon runs into the mouth of the Columbia River in recent decades is thought to be partly attributable to the construction of hydroelectric dams. The purpose of this article is to estimate the magnitude of losses in chinook salmon runs caused by hydroelectric dams, using regression analysis. Such estimates are not only of historical interest but also can potentially affect the extent of efforts to mitigate salmon losses from hydropower operations. Congress has mandated the Northwest Power Planning Council to consider the magnitude of run losses caused by hydroelectric operations in determining the extent of mitigation efforts.

Mitigation, compensation, and future protection for fish populations affected by hydropower development in the upper Columbia system, Montana, U.S.A.

AbstractPursuant to the Northwest Power Planning Council's Fish and Wildlife Program for the Columbia River system, we estimated losses in fish populations and developed mitigation, compensation, and protection alternatives for reservoirs and downstream river reaches affected by hydropower development in the Flathead and Kootenai River systems in northwest Montana, U.S.A. The construction of Hungry Horse Dam has resulted in estimated annual losses of 65500 migratory juvenile westslope cutthroat and 1965 adult migratory bull trout from the Flathead Lake and River system. In addition, operations of Hungry Horse and Kerr dams caused annual losses conservatively estimated at 96300 river‐spawning and 131000 lakeshore‐spawning kokanee adults. Water level fluctuations caused by dam operations at Libby and Hungry Horse reservoirs result in: (1) altered thermal stratification, (2) indirect losses in phytoplankton and zooplankton production, (3) direct washout of phytoplankton and zooplankton through dam penstocks, (4) reductions in standing crop of benthic organisms and of insects on the water surface, and (5) reduced fish growth in the late summer and fall. Mitigative measures include: (1) 99.2 and 113.3 m3 s−1 minimum flows in the Flathead and Kootenai rivers respectively, to protect salmonid eggs and juveniles, (2) improvement of fish passage to restore migrations between the Flathead and Swan systems, and (3) biological rule curves for operations at Libby and Hungry Horse reservoirs. To compensate for fisheries losses, we recommend enhancement of spawning and rearing habitat, introductions of hatchery juveniles, and spawning channels. We recommend protection from further hydropower development for 100 stream reaches (1386 km) for fish species of special concern, and for outstanding sport fisheries. These and other measures will be considered by various agencies in developing an overall fisheries restoration plan which should be flexible, and employ principles of adaptive management. Effectiveness of the plan may be limited by heavy reliance on hatchery fish. Although mitigation efforts may not restore fish populations to pre‐dam levels, substantial benefits should be realized.

An Opportunity for Integrated Management of the Flathead River-Lake Ecosystem, Montana

In Montana's Flathead River basin, studies resulting from the Northwest Power Planning Council's Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Program, and the relicensing of Kerr Dam, sited on lands of the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes, demonstrate the need for a holistic sub-basin approach to aquatic resource management at the ecosystem level. Strong direction and leadership from the Flathead Basin Commission to develop an integrated aquatic resource management plan, which will facilitate coordinated local management of the aquatic ecosystem, can avoid exploitation by out-of-basin interests taking advantage of local divisiveness.

Linking appliance efficiency and space conditioning loads in residential energy-demand projections

We describe the incorporation of interaction between appliance efficiencies and spaceconditioning loads into a version of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) computer-simulation model, used by the Northwest Power Planning Council to project residential demand for electricity in the Pacific Northwest. Projections of total demand and estimated impacts of an illustrative appliance efficiency standard are compared with projections generated by the unimproved version of the ORNL model. Projections of total demand by the new model are not greatly different from the projections of the original. However, the new model produces estimates of savings from the illustrative appliance efficiency standard which are substantially less than the original model. We point out unique conditions of the Pacific Northwest which make it impossible to use these results to draw conclusions for other regions.

Solar energy in the Northwest U.S.

The Power Act created the Pacific Northwest Power Planning Council. The Council is required to draw a 20 yr energy plan and to look into alternative resources in the following order: conservation, renewable resources, cogeneration and conventional technologies. To help the Council evaluate impacts of alternative actions, a generation system simulation model (SAM) was developed. This model evaluates the cost and reliability impacts of a given load/resource scenario, employing a Monte-Carlo approach to deal with uncertainties. We present a brief description of SAM, availability of solar energy resource in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), results of a 100 MW hypothetical central station photovoltaic installation performance, and a central station photovoltaic model.