North Atlantic Treaty Organization Members Research Articles

Political alliances and trade: Europe in a polarized world

This study investigates how political alliances influence trade and welfare in Europe and major global economies amidst escalating geopolitical tensions. Utilizing a panel data approach, we assess the impact of military alliances on trade through structural gravity and staggered difference-in-difference methodologies. We further simulate the potential trade and welfare effects of the strengthening and disintegration of political alliances within blocs. Results reveal significant trade and welfare consequences stemming from the expansion or disintegration of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the establishment of a military alliance under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). From a European point of view, our results suggest that the accession of new NATO members will bring economic benefits, while the US leaving NATO, or the deepening of the SCO, will bring negative trade and welfare effects. If a US exit from NATO triggers a disintegration of the alliance and the SCO creates a military alliance, this would lead to severe negative consequences for the EU. Notably, the study finds that the benefits of collective security provided by NATO substantially outweigh the costs associated with its 2% defence spending requirement.

NATO defense planning under new military and political conditions

An analysis of the military and political preconditions for the current transformation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is presented. The deterioration of relations between Russia and NATO member states, which accelerated with the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine accompanied by massive supplies of Western weapons systems to Kiev, launched the reconfiguring of the entire system of military and political decision-making and defense planning process in NATO. The alliance is returning to its original mission – countering the “Russian threat” (formerly Soviet), despite the fact that NATO is not declaratively a party to the armed conflict in Ukraine. NATO’s reaction and actions in connection with the Ukrainian crisis and the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO), including the plans of the alliance’s leadership for the future, are analyzed. The simplification of a number of procedures and requirements in the defense planning system of the organization in the short and medium term are noted. The full cycle of NATO defense planning is examined in detail and schematically presented, and a forecast of its further evolution is given.

The market reaction of real estate companies to the announcement of the Russian–Ukrainian invasion

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the market reaction in the real estate market to the announcement of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the event study method to assess the market reaction to the announcement that Russia is invading Ukraine. The sample in this study comprises 2,325 companies in the real estate market. We also conduct a cross-sectional analysis to determine the influence of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members and company characteristics on market reactions during the invasion.FindingsThe global market reacts significantly negative toward Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This indicates that the war poses a high geopolitical risk that prompts financial markets down. The authors also demonstrate that emerging and frontier markets react significantly negative to the invasion before and after its announcement. Meanwhile, developed markets tend to react only before the invasion is announced. Furthermore, we find that the NATO members react more strongly than other markets.Social implicationsThis result implies that war prompts investors to flee from the stock exchange, while the deeper the country’s involvement, the more investors worry about the risks.Originality/valueThis study is the first to discuss the market reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukrainian, specifically in the real estate market.

Ukraine – NATO: relations and prospects of membership

The author notes that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in modern conditions plays one of the key roles in ensuring security and stability in Europe. It is stated that, in accordance with its founding documents, this international structure aims to unite the efforts of its members for collective defense and for the preservation of peace and security. The article reveals the international legal aspects of the Partnership for Peace program, established in 1991 to ensure cooperation between NATO and European states that are not members of the alliance, and to maintain a constant dialogue on issues of mutual interest to both NATO and states that are not part of this military-political bloc. It is emphasized that this program is used for the purpose of cooperation between NATO members and non-members in the military and defense spheres, including in various crisis situations, based on the postulate that the security of member states is inseparably linked with the security of all other European states. The article focuses on the analysis of the history and prospects of the development of relations between Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The policy of the Ukrainian leadership towards the bloc, as well as concrete steps within the framework of Euro-Atlantic integration are considered. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the compliance of the current state of the internal political system of Ukraine with the requirements and standards of NATO. The official position of the Russian Federation on the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO is considered. It is concluded that Ukraine's entry into NATO in the short and medium term contradicts the interests of the international organization itself.

Banking sector's reaction during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: who reacted the most?

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the market reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, specifically in the banking sector.Design/methodology/approachThe research uses an event study and cross-sectional analysis, with market reaction measured by cumulative abnormal return (CAR). The sample comprised 1,126 banks.FindingsThe results show that the market reacted negatively to the invasion both before and after its announcement. Developed and emerging markets saw a negative impact from the invasion, while frontier markets experienced only a slight impact. The authors also find that the banking markets of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members reacted significantly and negatively both before and after the invasion was announced. This demonstrates that the negative market reaction of NATO members was more impactful than that of other markets. Overall, this study shows that investors in the banking market are very sensitive to war.Originality/valueThis is the first study to provide international evidence, specifically on the banking sector's reaction during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Readiness of Galileo PNT Service for NATO Operations Threats and Challenges

In the domain of the Defense ICT-based technology: (Information and Communication Technology), most of the worldwide defense operations, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operations, are significantly relying on the space support services. One of the most essential services is the Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) service, which is currently provided by the United States’ Global Positioning System (GPS). The GPS has become a global utility comparable to the internet, and it does not ‘just’ provide positioning data, but also provides the most important civilian/military use of the timing signal, which synchronizes all the communication and the encryption in all operations. While the USA has formulated first requirements to strengthen the resiliency of GPS in terms of the availability of accuracy, the availability of integrity and the availability of continuity, NATO has additional options to improve resiliency by integrating the European Galileo constellation. This paper focus mainly on the military implications of these two Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), to order to enrich the knowledge of the NATO members and policymakers about the PNT options available to the alliance, as well as addressing the various threats and challenges facing the PNT services.

When international rituals go wrong: How ritual failure undermines peaceful change in NATO

Recent International Relations scholarship has emphasized the significance of ritual and emotion in international politics. Much less attention has been paid to instances of ritual failure. Ritual failure refers to the occurrence of deliberate mistakes, errors or sabotage to contest the sociocultural boundaries, hierarchies and structures underlying international rituals. In this article, I argue that ritual is an emotion transformer that generates a sense of community among North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members. Successful ritual makes community members experience ‘we-feeling’, which underpins peaceful change in a security community. NATO members carry the group-aroused emotions for a time and come out of the ritual encounter feeling strong and confident. Conversely, a failed ritual lowers the confidence of community members because they do not experience ‘we-feeling’. I suggest that this explains the internal divisions and anxieties when rituals go wrong, such as during Trump’s infamous speech in front of the new NATO headquarters in 2017.

The Evolution of The Military Personnel in The Nato Member States

Based at the latest NATO annual report (NATO, 2022) this article examines the number of military personnel in the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) member states between 2014 and 2022. These two years are taken as a result of the NATO decisions at the Wales summit in 2014 to increase the defence expenditures against 2024 to 2 % of the national GDP in every member and also to invest at least 20 % of the national military budget in new material for the different army parts.

The art of partial commitment: the politics of military assistance to Ukraine

ABSTRACT What sort of military assistance has Ukraine received to date from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members since 2014? What has driven NATO allies’ decisions to provide military assistance to Ukraine? This essay addresses both questions. It offers a preliminary examination of how strategic, economic, and risk considerations might have shaped NATO members’ decisions regarding arms transfers to Ukraine, a country that remains outside of the Alliance but nevertheless is an Enhanced Opportunities Partner. Using both a qualitative analysis of post-2014 assistance and a purpose-built dataset combining military aid to Ukraine since late January 2022, we find that prior strategic preparation in the form of investments in military readiness and infrastructure is strongly associated with military aid to Ukraine. Economic considerations and prominent risk factors such as fossil fuel dependency thus far have not.

New Questions for an Old Alliance: NATO in Cyberspace and American Public Opinion

Abstract Cybersecurity poses new questions for old alliances. These questions emerge with special force in the case of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Russian Federation wields substantial cyber capabilities, but NATO members have been ambivalent about stating what sorts of attacks would trigger the North Atlantic Treaty's Article 5 collective self-defense provisions. Nevertheless, NATO officials state that there are some attacks that would trigger Article 5. This leads to a puzzle: why would an explicit alliance guarantee designed to ensure collective defense against certain forms of attack be informally extended to include others? Because the policy of the United States toward such questions will likely be of great significance in determining NATO policy, we use a series of survey experiments to test American public opinion regarding support for defending allies and friendly countries against cyber operations. Respondents are likelier to support a response to an attack that causes fatalities and when the victim has a treaty alliance with the United States. In contrast, support falls if US participation is likely to provoke further retaliation or the target attacked is civilian rather than military.

Some Implications of Sweden and Finland Joining NATO

Sweden and Finland’s decision to abandon their longtime, famous neutrality and apply for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) indicates that Russian president Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has disastrously backfired. These two new NATO members will bring tangible geostrategic benefits to the alliance, not just a token weight. NATO has suddenly gained a new and greater strength and legitimacy. As for the Kurds, they need to understand that NATO’s deal with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan to approve Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership in return for their cracking down on supposed Kurdish terrorists sheltering within their borders is not as hostile to Kurdish interests as they claim. Sweden and Finland are not likely to extradite Kurds accused of political crimes to Turkey. The Kurds should comprehend their very secondary position in the existential power struggle involving NATO and Russia and not overreact against it. As explained below, this deal with Turkey, like earlier ones, is not likely to be as inimical to Kurdish interests as first meets the eye.

NATO’s Capabilities in Global Governance: On the Balkan Scene

In this paper, the development and status of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the Western Balkans is examined. NATO’s regional expansion can be considered a part of the general expansion of NATO to the East. Unhindered eastward progress lasted until 2006, when Russia came back on the Balkan scene with the strategic South Stream pipeline project. The unexpected appearance of a new actor led to an intensification of NATO’s membership expansion process. Further, Russia’s presence indirectly initiated other meaningful events on the peninsula, such as the self-declaration of Kosovo’s independence. Today, Russia remains the primary irritant for NATO and collective western policy on the Balkans. Allies put considerable pressure on regional actors to avoid closer economic and political ties with Moscow. There are apparent efforts underway to bring all kinds of interaction with the Russian Federation under overall control. Since 2014, local NATO members and candidates have pursued strongly pronounced anti-Russian policy. Russia relies on its traditionally strong relationship with the Balkan states. Moscow brings an alternative model of economic cooperation and development. Both bids raise questions. The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has not proven its viability and effectiveness in either the medium- or the long-term perspective; regardless, it competes with a highly desired but elusive European Union (EU) membership. All this together requires more efforts from NATO and the West to maintain a dominating role and position in the region; it downgrades previously achieved capabilities in terms of global governance on the Balkan scene.

Training strategies for the improvement of NATO Level 2 results for English Functional Level exams in the armed forces

Background: As NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) countries participate in many international missions and joint operations around the world, NATO considered it a necessity for personnel to be able to communicate in a common language. Therefore, one of the main tasks of the NATO multinational setting is the teaching and the assessment of languages. Consequently, there is a need for personnel to achieve the Standard Language Profiles (SLP). Each NATO country must develop SLP exams to achieve the required levels based on NATO STANAG (Standard agreement) 6001. If the examinees do not achieve those levels and the global results are unsatisfactory, NATO members can be affected by a reduction of financial support or the assignment to NATO postings. This study aimed to create a training strategies proposal (TSP) for personnel to achieve NATO L2. Methods: The study consisted of four separate studies: 1) Preliminary survey/interview of military personnel about NATO L2 training; 2) gathering data from NATO L2 exams after normal training; 3) gathering of data from NATO L2 exams after the TSP had been implemented; 4) Post-training survey. Data was collected from examinees over a period of six months or one year, using mixed data collection methods: surveys, interviews, and exam results. Results: A total of 50 examinees took part in the study. Results showed that the number of examinees who passed the NATO L2 increased after going through the TSP. Conclusions: The results show that the TSP, using newer methodologies and different techniques, improved NATO L2 results. The outcomes of this study will help to inform future training and education programs.

Empirical Analysis of Military Expenditures in NATO Nations

The aim of the article is to identify possible “follower” behaviour; it means to reveal countries following the average military burden of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states. To analyse the relationship between military expenditure of NATO member states and selected socio-economic variables (average military burden of NATO member states, gross domestic product, government expenditure (non-military), share of trade balance of gross domestic product and population), the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model has been used. The short-term results demonstrate follower behaviour, especially in the new NATO member states (effort to fulfil the commitment to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defence). The long-term results have revealed a positive relationship between military expenditures and the variable describing the average military burden of NATO member states in the traditional and also new NATO member states. A positive relationship between military expenditure and gross domestic product has also been observed in the majority of evaluated countries in the long-term model. The public good effect has been determined in six member states only, and the crowding out effect in five member states. A positive effect of the balance of trade on military expenditure has been observed in two countries only.

The military expenditures and economic growth nexus: Panel bootstrap granger causality evidence from NATO countries

The purpose of this study is to examine the causal linkage between military expenditures and economic growth in 27 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member countries. Different periods are studied due to the unavailability of data for the common period for all countries. Both the symmetric and the asymmetric causality between military expenditures and economic growth are investigated under cross-sectional dependence and panel heterogeneity by using the bootstrap panel Granger causality testing approach. The results indicate that there is both symmetric and asymmetric Granger-causality between military expenditures and economic growth, which vary from one country to another. The robust empirical findings support the military expenditures and economic growth nexus in 12 of the 27 NATO member countries. Moreover, the findings show that more empirical evidence between military expenditures and economic growth can be obtained when the asymmetric causality is considered, in addition to the symmetric causality.

The Evolution of the Military Personnel in the NATO Member States

This study examines the number of military personnel and related topics in the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) member states between 2014 and 2020. These two years are taken as a result of the NATO decisions at the Wales summit in 2014 to increase the defence expenditures against 2024 to 2% of the national GDP in every member and also to invest at least 20% of the national military budget in new material for the different army parts.

Poland’s defense preparations in the context of allied obligations. Legal, institutional, and instrumental aspects

Poland’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 1999 was one of the most critical events in the Third Republic history. The integration process with NATO’s political and military structures is long-term and requires the constant commitment of all state structures and institutions. Participation in the joint creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Member States’ defense force means, under Article 3 of the Treaty, the states’ maintenance and development of individual and joint capacity to counter armed attack. Thereby Poland is also obliged to conduct defense preparations in the national dimension. It requires providing formal, legal, and organizational conditions for the country’s functioning in the event of increasing the national defense readiness. Such conditions are necessary to perform tasks as part of national defense carried out on its territory and the territory of other states – the Members of the Alliance. The content presented in this article attempts to present legal, institutional, and instrumental aspects of defense preparations in Poland in the context of allied obligations. They concern the need for all NATO Member States to maintain and develop individual and joint capabilities to counter an armed attack. Given the nature of the problem, it should be remembered that Poland’s integration with NATO takes place both in the defense sphere and in economic, social, legal, and political matters.

ІСТОРІЯ МІЖНАРОДНИХ ВІЙСЬКОВИХ НАВЧАНЬ “ШВИДКИЙ ТРИЗУБ” ЯК ПРИКЛАД ВІЙСЬКОВОГО СПІВРОБІТНИЦТВА УКРАЇНИ – НАТО

The history of initiation and development of multinational Rapid Trident international military exercises is described, the legal basis for conducting international military exercises between NATO members and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Armed Forces) is analyzed, their subject is changed in the context of armed aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine, annexation of the Crimea and part of Donbas region. Given the definition at the Constitutional level of Ukraine on February 7, 2019, the country's clear geopolitical and military course on Ukraine's full membership in the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), special attention is paid to highlighting the implementation of NATO's structuconducting international military exercises Rapid Trident 2019, the application of the latest technical means of imitation and simulation. The training enables the involvement of a large number of Armed Forces personnel) and other security forces to provide a practical implementation of NATO Armed Forces headquarters and units, facilitates exchanges of experience, and enhances interoperability between NATO member states' forces and headquarters. The necessity of cooperation of the units of all Ukrainian military forces during the international military exercises is emphasized. The conclusion is drawn to the prospects of international military exercises, such as Rapid Trident, in NATO's international military cooperation system with partner countries. The scheduled international exercises Rapid Trident are among the capstone events of Ukrainian Army’ annual training cycle. These exercises play a key role in training of Ukrainian military personnel according to the Alliance standards under the advisement of allied nations. There is no doubt that Ukrainian Armed Forces and forces from partner nations have significantly benefited from this aspect of military cooperation. Hence, it is important to evaluate the exercise effectiveness as well as generate recommendations for further improving military exercises Rapid Trident, enhancing Ukrainian Army capabilities and developing operational interoperability with NATO forces.ral units

Russia’s influence operations in the Czech Republic during the radar debate

The article highlights Russia’s influence operations in the Czech Republic during U.S.-Czech ballistic missile defense discussions and negotiations between 2002 and 2011. Russia’s influence operations are an example of its first successful effort on a new North Atlantic Treaty Organization member state territory. They are significant because Russia will use similar approaches in other states and the United States must understand them before it can successfully counter them. This is a first public comprehensive effort to map them in connection to U.S.-Czech radar negotiations and draw conclusions for U.S. and allied foreign and defense policies.

Spreading the Burden: How NATO Became a ‘Nuclear’ Alliance

ABSTRACT Common knowledge has it that the end of the Cold War allowed the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to push the nuclear genie back into the bottle. But whilst NATO members have reduced the alliance’s practical, military reliance on nuclear arms, their commitment to nuclear defence as a shared, symbolic enterprise has in fact grown increasingly explicit over time, with NATO declaring itself a ‘nuclear alliance’ in 2010. The following analysis develops two arguments. First, political responsibility for nuclear defence has shifted from individual member-states to the alliance as such; and, second, this development has been fuelled by member-states’ recurrent need to deflect criticism and adapt to the strengthening of humanitarian and anti-nuclear norms. The pulverisation of responsibility for nuclear defence in NATO has enabled pro-nuclear actors to justify costly nuclear modernisation programmes as acts of ‘alliance solidarity’ whilst exercising rhetorical coercion over advocates of denuclearisation.