North Atlantic Subtropical High Research Articles

Understanding Observed Precipitation Change and the New Climate Normal from the Perspective of Daily Weather Types in the Southeast United States

Abstract Observed precipitation changes in the Southeast United States (SEUS) are spatially heterogeneous. Most of the inland SEUS and eastern Gulf Coast become drier, and the East Coast north of Charleston, South Carolina, and southern Florida become wetter from the old 30-yr period of 1961–90 to the recent period of 1991–2020. The observed climate change is examined from the perspective of daily weather types (WTs). A k-means clustering analysis has been conducted using daily 850-hPa circulation for 1948–2021. The obtained 10 WTs peak in different seasons, respectively. The frequencies and precipitation intensity of the WTs have been analyzed. A winter WT characterized by a western Appalachian trough (WAT) and a summer WT featuring North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) have a rising trend of annual frequency from 1948 to 2021. An Appalachian high in the autumn has a decreasing frequency but becomes drier and stronger. Some precipitation intensity change and small location shift have also been observed. The drying up on the eastern Gulf Coast and the inland area of the SEUS is mainly caused by the weakened southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ) on the western flank of the NASH that reduces rain in the spring, the less frequent but stronger and drier Appalachian high in the summer and autumn, and the weaker and more western located Plains trough (PT) in the winter, spring, and autumn. The precipitation increase in the East Coast and southern Florida is majorly due to more frequent, stronger, and rainier troughs along the western Appalachian as well as the East Coast.

The emission, transport, and impacts of the extreme Saharan dust storm of 2015

Abstract. ​​​​​​​Each summer, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) transports massive amounts of mineral dust across the Atlantic Ocean, affecting weather, climate, and public health over large areas. Despite the considerable impacts of African dust, the causes and impacts of extreme trans-Atlantic African dust events are not fully understood. The “Godzilla” trans-Atlantic dust event of 2020 has been extensively studied, but little is known about other similar events. Here, we examine the June 2015 event, the second strongest trans-Atlantic African dust event that occurred during the summers from 2003–2022. This event was characterized by moderately high dust emissions over western North Africa and an extremely high aerosol optical depth (AOD) over the tropical North Atlantic. The high dust loading over the Atlantic is associated with atmospheric circulation extremes similar to the Godzilla event. Both the African easterly jet (AEJ) and Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ) have greatly intensified, along with a westward extension of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), all of which favor the westward transport of African dust. The enhanced dust emissions are related to anomalously strong surface winds in dust source regions and reduced vegetation density and soil moisture across the northern Sahel. The dust plume reduced net surface shortwave radiation over the eastern tropical North Atlantic by about 25 W m−2 but increased net longwave flux by about 3 W m−2. In contrast to the Godzilla event, the 2015 event had minor air quality impacts on the US, partially due to the extremely intensified CLLJ that dispersed the dust plume towards the Pacific.

Quantifying Changes in the Florida Synoptic-Scale Sea-Breeze Regime Climatology

Abstract Florida’s summertime precipitation patterns are in part influenced by convergence between the synoptic-scale wind and local sea-breeze fronts that form along the east and west coasts of the peninsula. While the National Weather Service previously defined nine sea-breeze regimes resulting from variations in the synoptic-scale vector wind field near Tampa, Florida, these regimes were developed using a shorter 18-yr period and examined primarily for the purposes of short-term weather prediction. This study employs reanalysis data to develop a full 30-yr climatology of the Florida sea-breeze regime distribution and analyze the composite mean atmospheric conditions associated with each regime. Further, given that 1) the synoptic-scale wind primarily varies as a result of movement in the western ridge of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), and 2) previous studies suggest long-term shifts in the mean position of the NASH western ridge, this study also examines variability and trends in the sea-breeze regime distribution and its relationship to rainy-day frequency over a longer 60-yr period. Results indicate that synoptic-scale flow from the west through southwest, which enhances precipitation probabilities along the eastern half of the peninsula, has increased in frequency, while flow from the east through northeast has decreased in frequency. These changes in the sea-breeze regime distribution may be partially responsible for increases in rainy-day frequency during June–August over northeastern Florida, though results suggest that other factors likely contribute to interannual variability in precipitation across the southern peninsula.

Caracterização climática e análise dos mecanismos de modulação do declínio das chuvas na encosta caribenha da América Central durante setembro-outubro

[Introduction]: The Caribbean slope of Central America is located windward of the trade winds associated with the North Atlantic Subtropical High. The region exhibits rainfall bimodal annual patterns, with a relative minimum occurring in September and October. [Objective]: The study aims to characterize the observed decrease in rainfall during this two-month period. For each event, the variables associated with the onset day, minimum day, demise day, duration, intensity, and magnitude were estimated for the period of 1979-2010. [Methodology]: A set of 31 daily records from rain gauge stations was used. The months from July to November were examined in each station to identify the values of minimum, date of the minimum, onset, demise, duration, and intensity. The study explored the occurrence of any temporal or spatial trend in these characteristics of the events. Finally, different climatic indices and documentary sources were reviewed to identify the possible synoptic causes of the strongest decreases in rainfall. [Results]: The analysis revealed that the events began around September 3rd, with a minimum on September 23rd and an end on October 12th, with an approximate duration of 39 days. Events tend to occur earlier at stations located northwest of the isthmus. The driest events occurred under favorable conditions for the occurrence of winds with a southwest-west component over the region. [Conclusions]: Knowledge about these characteristics of precipitation helps in the activity planning of key socioeconomic sectors in Central America in case of adverse hydrometeorological events.

The influence of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and the North Atlantic Subtropical High during the Maya Droughts

The frequency and duration of Late-Holocene hydrologic extremes in northern Guatemala were investigated using multiple sedimentological and geochemical proxies preserved in a sediment core collected from Lake Petén Itzá. A general trend of increasing aridity in the Maya Lowlands during the past 2000 years was punctuated by several multidecadal- to centennial-scale drought events recorded in the Petén Itzá sediments. In particular, the period spanning the Maya Terminal Classic Period and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), between 800 and 1300 CE, was marked by several extreme droughts and included the driest conditions of the past 2000 years between 950 and 1100 CE. Similarities between our data and other existing regional paleoclimate records suggest regional drying events during this time may have been driven by a common mechanism. Specifically, comparisons between these records and tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) suggest that the dry intervals may have been driven by a westward expansion of the North Atlantic Subtropical High pressure system. This period was unique in the general agreement between regional proxy records, which are otherwise notably heterogeneous during the Late-Holocene. During the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1400–1800 CE) mean precipitation at Petén Itzá was further reduced, and multidecadal drying events were recorded between 1500–1530, 1600–1640, and 1770–1800 CE. However, regional hydroclimatic coherency was weaker during the LIA, suggesting that additional climatic mechanisms played a more important role in local-scale hydrology during that time.

Heat waves in Florida and their future from high‐resolution regional climate model integrations

AbstractThis study examines the simulation of the heatwave events over Florida from the integration of two regional climate models (RCMs) at comparatively high resolution (at 10 km grid spacing) for two decades of the current climate (1986–2005) followed by their projection in the mid‐21st century (2041–2060). The two RCMs are coupled ocean–atmosphere (CRSM) and atmosphere only (URSM), which are forced at the lateral boundaries by the corresponding simulation of the Community Climate System Model v4 (CCSM4) for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The analysis reveals a reasonable simulation of the frequency, intensity and characteristic kinematic and thermodynamic features of the heatwave events over Florida from both the RCMs with the differences between URSM and CRSM being insignificant. The future projections (2041–2060) are presented only for URSM since the projected differences from CRSM were insignificant. We found the projected change of higher frequency ranging between 20 to over 50% increase relative to the late 20th‐century frequency of heatwave events. Similarly, the projections suggest a broadening of the season of their occurrence by over 2 months. These projected changes are associated with a projected increase in the mean surface temperature, a slight increase of surface humidity but with a mean reduction of surface relative humidity, and a westward dislocation of the North Atlantic Subtropical High.

The evolution of the Maya coastal landscape in the Mexican Caribbean during the last 6200 years

The modern configuration of tropical coastlines is a result of changes in sea level and regional hydroclimates during the Holocene. In some regions, such as the Yucatan Peninsula, human occupation has also played an important role in defining coastal dynamics. We use a multiproxy analysis of a 6200-year-long sedimentary record from La Encantada lagoon, located near the Bay of Chetumal, Mexican Caribbean, to reconstruct local and regional environmental dynamics. By characterizing the record in terms of pollen and charcoal content, and geochemical composition, we aim to determine the relative importance of sea level rise, long term trends of moisture availability, and anthropic influences in the evolution of the Mayan coastal landscape. Our findings indicate a dominance of marine influences between ∼6200 and 5000 cal yr. BP, probably resulting from the rapidly rising sea level. During this time, whereas the water column was brackish, fluvial dynamics seem characterized by high erosion and the development of riparian mangroves. The geochemical record indicates a millennial-scale trend towards drier conditions, likely associated with the southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone through the Holocene. This trend is also reflected in a progressive increase in the abundance of deciduous taxa in the vegetation. Centennial-scale climatic dynamics, on the other hand, seem associated with variability of the North Atlantic Subtropical High. Anthropogenic influence is evident around ∼5000 cal yr. BP, when local fires became more frequent and riparian mangroves were depleted. Taxa associated with human influence substantially increased at ∼3600 cal yr. BP, coinciding with an erosion increase indicated by the geochemical record. At ∼2200 cal yr. BP, anthropic disturbance indicators decrease, suggesting a potential role of modified agricultural practices to control soil erosion. The last ∼1000 years have been characterized by a decline of agricultural activity and a recovery of the riparian mangroves, suggesting modern vegetation is a result of forest recovery during the last millennium. Overall, our results show that sea level rise and changes in the regional hydroclimate modulate the evolution of the regional landscape, particularly through influences on the sedimentation rates. However, human occupation represents an overpowering influence that can modulate processes associated with natural forcings.

The Impact of Tropical SST Biases on the S2S Precipitation Forecast Skill over the Contiguous United States in the UFS Global Coupled Model

Abstract This work investigates the impact of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) biases on the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S) precipitation forecast skill over the contiguous United States (CONUS) in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) coupled model Prototype 6. Boreal summer (June–September) and winter (December–March) for 2011–18 were analyzed. The impact of tropical west Pacific (WP) and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) warm SST biases is evaluated using multivariate linear regression analysis. A warm SST bias over the WP influences the CONUS precipitation remotely through a Rossby wave train in both seasons. During boreal winter, a warm SST bias over the TNA partly affects the magnitude of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH)’s center, which in the reforecasts is weaker than in reanalysis. The weaker NASH favors an enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico, leading to increased precipitation over the Southeast United States. Compared to reanalysis, during boreal summer, the NASH’s center is also weaker and in addition, its position is displaced to the northeast. The displacement further affects the CONUS summer precipitation. The SST biases over the two tropical regions and their impacts become stronger as the forecast lead increases from week 1 to 4. These tropical biases explain up to 10% of the CONUS precipitation biases on the S2S time scale.

Atlantic ITCZ variability during the Holocene based on high-resolution speleothem isotope records from northern Venezuela

Few high-resolution paleoclimate proxy records exist in the region located under the direct influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in South America and most of them were retrieved from the Cariaco Basin off the coast of Venezuela. Here we present new ẟ18O and ẟ13C records of Venezuelan speleothems collected in caves adjacent to Cariaco, covering the mid- and late-Holocene. We document previously undetected secular-to multidecadal-scale climate variability in the core region of the ITCZ, which is compared to other high-resolution records from the North Atlantic, Caribbean and tropical South America. Over the mid-Holocene our record exhibits broad swings between periods of reduced (8.3–8.0, 6.5–5.0, 4.1–3.6 ka BP) and increased (8.5, 8.0–6.5, 4.9–4.2 ka BP) rainfall. In particular, between 5.5 and 5.0 ka BP, increases in polar and subpolar North Atlantic ice rafted debris and a reduction in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation might have contributed to the southward displacement of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) and the ITCZ, which led to severe dry conditions in north central Venezuela and an enhancement of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). During the late-Holocene, contrary to data from Cariaco reported in previous studies, our results point to drier conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 900–1100 CE), which were further amplified during positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases. Wet conditions, however, prevailed during the first part of the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1400–1500 CE). No speleothem deposition occurred during the main LIA period, which might be related to drier conditions in response to a southward displacement of the ITCZ that led to major moisture convergence over the SASM domain. Our new records from Venezuela provide a reliable proxy for ITCZ behavior over the Atlantic – South America domain and document past dynamics in relation to other climate systems (NASH and SAMS), while providing new evidence of ITCZ – North Atlantic teleconnections during the Holocene.

Changes in Seasonal Large-Scale Extreme Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States, 1979–2019

Abstract This study uses Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) data in each season to identify the days with the most extreme precipitation (“EP days”) in the mid-Atlantic and northeast United States between 1979 and 2019. These days are sorted according to the fraction of extreme precipitation attributed to tropical cyclone (TC), atmospheric river (AR), and extreme integrated vapor transport (IVT) influences. In winter and spring, there have been increases in seasonal precipitation from the most extreme days, associated with a combination of frequency and intensity changes. These increasing trends come primarily from atmospheric rivers. In summer and fall, there have also been large increases in precipitation on extreme days, in this case due entirely to increased event frequency. These changes come from a combination of AR, TC, and extreme IVT influences. Synoptic characteristics of AR-related EP days in winter and spring have changed significantly. In winter, there has been an amplification of the Atlantic ridge and a deepening of the upstream trough over the upper Great Plains, as well as enhanced AR detection and IVT on these days. The composite low has shifted north and intensified. In spring, the trough has weakened and 1000–500-hPa thickness has increased broadly to the south. These changes are related to changes in the large-scale flow. In winter and spring, the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) has strengthened and shifted west, leading to increased southwesterly IVT over the mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States. In summer, southerly IVT along the east coast has increased, and 1000–500-hPa climatological thickness has increased broadly in all seasons. Significance Statement This paper studies the days with the most extreme precipitation over the mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States in each season and finds that there have been large changes in the frequency, intensity, and characteristics of some of these days. Extreme days associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) and tropical cyclones (TCs) have become more frequent. Precipitation on AR-related days has also become more intense in some areas. On winter extreme days associated with ARs, the pattern has become more amplified and moisture fluxes have become stronger; these changes are likely associated with strengthened high pressure over the Atlantic. Throughout all seasons, there is evidence of warming on extreme days. This is important because it adds to our understanding of how total and AR-related extreme precipitation is changing in a warming climate.

1,100‐Year Reconstruction of Baseflow for the Santee River, South Carolina, USA Reveals Connection to the North Atlantic Subtropical High

AbstractSince 2013, extreme floods within the Santee River basin (North/South Carolina, USA) caused $1.5B in damage. The instrumental period, however, is too short to determine if recent extreme events are anomalous within a long‐term context. Here, we present reconstructions of storm‐, base‐, and total streamflow for the Santee River using a multi‐species tree‐ring network calibrated to flow data during the period 1923–2018. Tree‐ring data explained higher variance (r = 0.59; p < 0.01; 900–2018) of instrumental baseflow than total streamflow (r = 0.41; p < 0.01; 1500–2018) or stormflow (r = 0.26; p < 0.05; 1690–2018). Our reconstruction reveals a long‐term increase in baseflow over the past millennium. The North Atlantic subtropical high regulates baseflow in the Santee River (r = 0.45; p < 0.01). Recent high levels of baseflow may be connected to the position of the subtropical high, increasing the likelihood of flooding.

Signatures of midsummer droughts over Central America and Mexico

The annual cycle of precipitation over most parts of Central America and southern Mexico is climatologically characterized by a robust bimodal distribution, normally termed as the midsummer drought (MSD), influencing a large range of agricultural economic and public insurances. Compared to studies focusing on mechanisms underpinning the MSD, less research has been undertaken related to its climatological signatures. This is due to a lack of generally accepted methods through which to detect and quantify the bimodal precipitation accurately. The present study focuses on characterizing the MSD climatological signatures over Central America and Mexico using daily precipitation observations between 1979 and 2017, aiming to provide a comprehensive analysis of MSD in fine scale over this region. This was completed using a new method of detection. The signatures were analyzed from three aspects, namely (1) climatological mean states and variability; (2) connections with large scale modes of climate variability (El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO)); and (3) the potential afforded by statistical modelling. The development of MSDs across the region is attributed to changes of surface wind–pressure composites, characterized by anomalously negative (positive) surface pressure and onshore (offshore) winds during the peak (trough) of precipitation. ENSO’s modulation of MSDs is also shown by modifying the surface wind–pressure patterns through MSD periods, inducing the intensified North Atlantic Subtropical High and associated easterlies from the Caribbean region, which induce relatively weak precipitation at corresponding time points and subsequently intensify the MSD magnitude and extend the MSD period. Building on previous research which showed MSDs tend to start/end in MJO phases 1 and 8, a fourth–order polynomial was used here to statistically model the precipitation time series during the rainy season. We show that the strength of the bimodal precipitation can be well modelled by the coefficient of the polynomial terms, and the intra-seasonal variability is largely covered by the MJO indices. Using two complete MJO cycles and the polynomial, the bimodal precipitation during the rainy season over Central America and Mexico is synoptically explained, largely contributing to our understanding of the MJO’s modulation on the MSD.

Modelling hydrometeorological extremes associated to the moisture transport driven by the Great Plains low-level jet

The Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ) system consists of very strong winds in the lower troposphere that transport a huge amount of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to the American Great Plains. This paper aims to study the extremes of the Transported Moisture (TM) from the GPLLJ source region to the jet domain; and, for low and high TM, to analyze the extremal dependence between the upper tail of the precipitation in the GPLLJ sink region and the lower tail of the tropospheric stability in that region, which is known as tropospheric instability. The declustered extremes of TM were analyzed using Peaks Over Threshold (POT). A non-stationary Exponential model was fitted to the cluster maxima. Estimated return levels show that the extremes of TM are expected to decrease in the future. This is meteorologically congruent with the known displacement of the western edge of the North Atlantic Subtropical High, which controls atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic, and to a higher scale with the change of phase from negative to positive of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Bilogistic and Logistic models were fitted to the extremes of (tropospheric instability, precipitation) for low and high TM, respectively. The extremal dependence between tropospheric instability and precipitation proves to be stronger in the case of high TM. This confirms that dynamical instability is the most important parameter for achieving high values of precipitation once there is a mechanism that allows the continuous supply of large amounts of moisture, such as the derived from a low-level jet system.

Wind–SST Dipole Mode in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico: large-scale features and drivers

The Dipole Mode (DM) is the leading pattern of springtime wind–SST coupled interannual variability in the Intra-Americas Seas, characterized by SST anomalies of opposite sign between the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Using the standard deviation (STD) of the wind in a Maximum Correlation Analysis (MCA), this study aims to provide a more dynamic view of the role of the atmosphere in its coupling with the SST. The MCA reveals that the positive phase of the DM is associated with an increase in atmospheric instability, while the negative phase emerges under more stable atmospheric conditions. The DM is preceded by changes in the subtropical high-pressure belt during the previous winter, particularly in the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), and reflects shifts in the latitudinal position of the subtropical jet stream. The DM positive phase tends to occur after an El Niño winter, under negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions. El Niño modulates the DM through a weakening in the meridional pressure gradient and a southward shift of the jet stream. A negative NAO implies a weaker NASH and, therefore, a more irregular circulation over the region. Both El Niño and negative NAO conditions favor the increase in wind STD during the DM positive phase, consistent with an increment in atmospheric disturbances. The DM negative phase responds more to a positive NAO in the previous winter, revealing a stronger NASH acting as an atmospheric block, which justifies the decrease in STD and a more stable circulation.

Analysis of meteorological variables interaction associated with the environment of formation of Amazonian squall lines.

The relationships among humidity, air temperature, wind, and vertical velocity with formation and propagation of Amazonian squall lines (ASL) is analyzed in this study. One year of data (2005) is verified by counting ASL cases according to their classification (propagated and non-propagated) to understand more clearly how the variation of these variables over this year influences their environment of formation. The results show an increase in humidity on days with ASL, with the highest occurrence during the wettest months. Furthermore, system propagation toward the interior of continent seems to be strongly related to the moisture content that reaches the coast, through the winds that blow from the ocean from both by the Northeast Trade Winds, of the North Atlantic Subtropical High, and by the Southeast Trade Winds, of the South Atlantic Subtropical High. Higher moisture content from the sea corresponds to a higher wind intensity toward the coast. A relationship between continent/ocean temperature gradient and the ASL amount and types formed is also demonstrated. Such information is extremely relevant because of the great importance of these systems in the extreme north and northeast regions of Brazil, particularly at the Amazon, given the difficulty of predicting them due to their complexity.

Decadal Variability of Southeast US Rainfall in an Eddying Global Coupled Model

AbstractOcean variability is a dominant source of remote rainfall predictability, but in many cases the physical mechanisms driving this predictability are not fully understood. This study examines how ocean mesoscales (i.e., the Gulf Stream SST front) affect decadal Southeast US (SEUS) rainfall, arguing that the local imprint of large‐scale teleconnections is sensitive to resolved mesoscale features. Based on global coupled model experiments with eddying and eddy‐parameterizing ocean, we find that a resolved Gulf Stream improves localized rainfall and remote circulation response in the SEUS. The eddying model generally improves the air‐sea interactions in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Subtropical High that modulate SEUS rainfall over decadal timescales. The eddy‐parameterizing simulation fails to capture the sharp SST gradient associated with the Gulf Stream and overestimates the role of tropical Pacific SST anomalies in the SEUS rainfall.

Forcing of cool and warm subsurface water events in Bahía Salinas, Costa Rica

Introduction: Bahía Salinas, on the north Pacific coast of Costa Rica, is a seasonal upwelling area. Sea temperature in Bahía Salinas could be modulated by synoptic and other large-scale systems. This region belongs to the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC), a sub-region in the isthmus that is relatively drier than the rest of the territory, which extends along the Pacific littoral from western Guatemala through northern Costa Rica.
 Objective: To study the warm and cold events that could be inferred by studying the sea subsurface temperature in Bahía Salinas, and also analyzing the large-scale conditions and synoptic systems of the historical sources when they occurred in order to identify the atmospheric mechanisms that favored their appearance.
 Methods: A Sea Subsurface Temperature Index was calculated using hourly data from seven stations located at three different points in Bahía Salinas. Records range from June 19, 2003 to December 5, 2017. Additionally, six meteorological stations, with hourly wind records, were used to create two wind indices. The Sea Subsurface Temperature Index was used to identify the warmest and coldest events in the bay. Wind indices and monthly meteorological bulletins were used to analyze the large-scale conditions and synoptic systems in which cold and warm events occurred in Bahía Salinas.
 Results: Mean sea temperature in Bahía Salinas is 25.2°C. Colder temperatures were observed in February-March, below 21°C. There were two maxima in May-June and August-October with temperatures above 27°C. In four of the five cold events studied, Northeasterly wind anomalies were observed in the Costa Rican North Pacific, associated with trade wind reinforcements; meanwhile westerly anomalies were observed in all the warm events, associated with weaker trade wind conditions.
 Conclusions: The main seasonal climate driver in Bahía Salinas is the North Atlantic Subtropical High because its latitudinal migration is associated with the strength of the trade winds over Central America. Seasonal upwelling is modulated also by two synoptic scale climate features, the boreal winter arrival of cold front outbreaks and the winter maximum of the easterly Caribbean Low-Level Jet. El Niño-Southern Oscillation is also an important modulator of the sea temperature variability, since warm and cool events are related with positive and negative sea temperature anomalies.

Observation and modeling of the historic “Godzilla” African dust intrusion into the Caribbean Basin and the southern US in June 2020

Abstract. This study characterizes a massive African dust intrusion into the Caribbean Basin and southern US in June 2020, which is nicknamed the “Godzilla” dust plume, using a comprehensive set of satellite and ground-based observations (including MODIS, CALIOP, SEVIRI, AERONET, and EPA Air Quality network) and the NASA GEOS global aerosol transport model. The MODIS data record registered this massive dust intrusion event as the most intense episode over the past 2 decades. During this event, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) observed by AERONET and MODIS peaked at 3.5 off the coast of West Africa and 1.8 in the Caribbean Basin. CALIOP observations show that the top of the dust plume reached altitudes of 6–8 km in West Africa and descended to about 4 km altitude over the Caribbean Basin and 2 km over the US Gulf of Mexico coast. The dust intrusion event degraded the air quality in Puerto Rico to a hazardous level, with maximum daily PM10 concentration of 453 µg m−3 recorded on 23 June. The dust intrusion into the US raised the PM2.5 concentration on 27 June to a level exceeding the EPA air quality standard in about 40 % of the stations in the southern US. Satellite observations reveal that dust emissions from convection-generated haboobs and other sources in West Africa were large albeit not extreme on a daily basis. However, the anomalous strength and northern shift of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) together with the Azores low formed a closed circulation pattern that allowed for accumulation of the dust near the African coast for about 4 d. When the NASH was weakened and wandered back to the south, the dust outflow region was dominated by a strong African easterly jet that rapidly transported the accumulated dust from the coastal region toward the Caribbean Basin, resulting in the record-breaking African dust intrusion. In comparison to satellite observations, the GEOS model reproduced the MODIS observed tracks of the meandering dust plume well as it was carried by the wind systems. However, the model substantially underestimated dust emissions from haboobs and did not lift up enough dust to the middle troposphere for ensuing long-range transport. Consequently, the model largely missed the satellite-observed elevated dust plume along the cross-ocean track and underestimated the dust intrusion into the Caribbean Basin by a factor of more than 4. Modeling improvements need to focus on developing more realistic representations of moist convection, haboobs, and the vertical transport of dust.

Caribbean Low‐Level Jet future projections using a multiparameter ensemble of RegCM4 configurations

AbstractA multiparameter ensemble generated by four configurations of the regional model RegCM4 using different cumulus parameterizations and driven by the HadGEM2‐ES global model is used to project changes in the Caribbean wind field, with the focus on the Caribbean Low‐Level Jet (CLLJ). Two scenarios are considered, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The CLLJ shows a strengthening (weakening) during the summer (winter) months compared to present day conditions in both a near future (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) time slice, with an eastward and northward expansion (contraction) in the core region. The warmer conditions produce an increase in specific humidity and an intensified moisture flux from the lower to the middle atmosphere in correspondence of the jet intensification. This occurs as a result of an expansion (contraction) of the North Atlantic Subtropical High of about +2 hPa (−2 hPa) into the Caribbean. All the changes are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level with a consensus across all the ensemble members.

Precipitation Characteristics of Warm Season Weather Types in the Southeastern United States of America

Daily weather types (WTs) over the Southeast United States have been analyzed using 850 hPa winds from reanalysis data from March to October of 1979–2019. Six WTs were obtained. WTs 1–3 represent mid-latitude synoptic systems propagating eastward. WT4 is a summer-type pattern predominantly occurring in June–August, with the center of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) along the Gulf coast in the southern United States. WT5 is most frequent from August to middle October, with the NASH pushed further north and southerly winds over the northern Great Plains. An anticyclone centered at the Carolina coast characterizes WT6, which occurs in all months but is slightly more frequent in the spring and fall, especially in October, corresponding to fair weather in the region. WTs 1, 2 and 3 can persist for only a few days. WTs 4, 5 and 6 can have long spells of persistence. Besides self-persistence, the most observed progression loop is WT1 to WT2, to WT3, and then back to WT1, corresponding to eastward-propagating waves. WTs 4 and 5 are likely to show persistence, with long periods of consecutive days. WT6 usually persists but can also transfer to WT3, i.e., a change from fair weather in the Southeast U.S. to rainy weather in the Mississippi River Valley. A diurnal cycle of precipitation is apparent for each WT, especially over coastal plains. The nocturnal precipitation in central U.S. is associated with WT3. WTs 1–3 are more frequent in El Niño years, corresponding to stronger westerly wave activities and above normal rainfall in the Southeast U.S. in the spring. The positive rainfall anomaly in the Mississippi and Ohio River valley in El Niño years is also associated with more frequent WT3.