North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Research Articles

A regional NEMO 4.0 configuration of the subpolar North Atlantic

The dynamics of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) largely control the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), thus affecting the long-term climate variability of the global ocean. Many key processes in the North Atlantic SPG, such as Gulf Stream detachment, eddy activity, deep convection and overflows, are frequently incorrectly presented or misrepresented in modern ocean general circulation models. Here, we present a new regional eddy-resolving model of the subpolar North Atlantic based on the NEMO4 configuration and analyze its ability to adequately represent the dynamics of the subpolar North Atlantic. The model performance is assessed using in situ data (cross-section hydrography, Argo and sea gliders), remote sensing data (satellite sea surface temperature and salinity) and the ANDRO and ARMOR3D products based on optimal interpolation products. In the next step, we analyze the effects of high-resolution forcing and several recent developments in ocean modeling to improve the model solution. The implementation of the self-diffusive momentum advection scheme with additional viscosity allows for the simulation of more realistic Deep Western Boundary Current and Irminger Rings lifecycle characteristics. The surface current feedback parameterization implemented in the forcing function and the modification of the kinetic energy budget in the upper ocean, especially in intensively eddying areas, simulate the behavior predicted by coupled models. While the model is sensitive to the implementation of cool skin–warm layer parameterization, this parameterization does not significantly improve the solution compared to the observational data. Regional implementation of the local-sigma vertical coordinate system in cascading areas allows overflow waters to spread over the ocean bottom more realistically. The remote effect of the implementation of the local-sigma coordinate is traced in the vertical thermohaline structure at the western slopes of the Irminger Sea and Iceland Basin as well as in the Deep Western Boundary Current in the Labrador Sea. Compared to z-partial step setting, local-sigma allows for correct representation of continuous densification of the water in the overturning part of the AMOC and thus North Atlantic Deep-Water formation. The potential of the new model configuration for analyzing the subpolar North Atlantic, including convective activity, is discussed.

Where do the Two Cores of the Irminger Current Come From? A Lagrangian Study Using a 1/10° Ocean Model Simulation

AbstractThe Irminger Current (IC) brings relatively warm and saline waters northward in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, contributing to the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The IC is a two‐core current with surface‐intensified velocities. The eastern core, closest to the Reykjanes Ridge, is warmer and more saline than the western core. To investigate the source waters of the two IC cores, using a 1/10° ocean model, we track Lagrangian particles released in the IC at OSNAP East (∼59.5°N) in the upper 1,000 m backward in time for one model year. Over a 1‐year time scale, nearly all particles are sourced from nearby regions of the Irminger Sea and Iceland Basin. Those seeded in the western IC core mostly originate from the Irminger Sea (83%), while those in its eastern core mostly originate from the Iceland Basin (69%). Iceland Basin water feeding the IC predominantly crosses the Reykjanes Ridge near 57°N and 59°N. Generally, particles from the Irminger Sea are colder and fresher than particles from the Iceland Basin. The fraction of waters from the Iceland Basin and the Irminger Sea varies from month to month. So, to explain monthly variations of the two IC cores at the OSNAP East line, changes in hydrographic properties in both basins as well as their contributions must be considered. Based on this model study, we interpret the Irminger Sea circulation as a basin‐wide recirculation with an increasing contribution of Iceland Basin waters toward the ridge which is subject to monthly variations.

The North Atlantic subpolar ocean dynamics during the past 21,000 years

Numerous studies have suggested that the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and Arctic sea ice impact the polar and global climate. Here, we use a fully linked atmosphere-ocean-sea ice Earth system model to investigate the North Atlantic subpolar ocean dynamics over the last 21 thousand years before the present (ka). We found that the SPG strength, net ocean surface heat flux, and mixed layer depth in the North Atlantic deep convection sites declined during the Heinrich 1 (H1; ∼19–17 ka) and Younger Dryas (YD; ∼12.9–11.3 ka) cold events. Consequently, the deep convection and AMOC strength declined, reducing the northward meridional heat transport and causing the expansion of Atlantic sea ice coverage. We also found that the North Atlantic subpolar net ocean surface heat flux varied coherently with AMOC strength throughout the past 21 ka. Subsequently, we observed a sea ice-capping mechanism wherein an increase (decrease) in Atlantic sea ice coverage during H1/YD (Bølling-Allerød (BA; ∼17–14.35 ka)) reduces (increases) net ocean surface heat flux and deep convection, thereby influencing the AMOC strength. Meanwhile, the SPG and AMOC strengths have been in-phase throughout the past 21 ka, except during the abrupt termination and input of freshwater flux during the BA and Meltwater Pulse 1 A (∼14.4–13.9 ka) events, respectively. In conclusion, our study suggests that a sudden shift in freshwater discharge into the subpolar North Atlantic may disturb the polar ocean dynamics.

A Dynamics-Weighted Principal Components Analysis of Dominant Atmospheric Drivers of Ocean Variability with an Application to the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre

Abstract This paper describes a framework for identifying dominant atmospheric drivers of ocean variability. The method combines statistics of atmosphere–ocean fluxes with physics from an ocean general circulation model to derive atmospheric patterns optimized to excite variability in a specified ocean quantity of interest. We first derive the method as a weighted principal components analysis and illustrate its capabilities in a toy problem. Next, we apply our analysis to the problem of interannual upper ocean heat content (HC) variability in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) using the adjoint of the MITgcm and atmosphere–ocean fluxes from the ECCOv4-r4 state estimate. An unweighted principal components analysis reveals that North Atlantic heat and momentum fluxes in ECCOv4-r4 have a range of spatiotemporal patterns. By contrast, dynamics-weighted principal components analysis collapses the space of these patterns onto a small subset—principally associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation—that dominates interannual SPG HC variance. By perturbing the ECCOv4-r4 state estimate, we illustrate the pathways along which variability propagates from the atmosphere to the ocean in a nonlinear ocean model. This technique is applicable across a range of problems across Earth system components, including in the absence of a model adjoint. Significance Statement While the oceans have absorbed 90% of the excess heat associated with human-forced climate change, the change in the ocean’s heat content is not steady, with peaks and troughs superimposed upon a general increase. These fluctuations come from chaotic changes in the atmosphere and ocean and can be hard to disentangle. We use this case of ocean heat content variability to introduce a new method for determining the patterns of weather and climate in the atmosphere that are most effective at generating fluctuations in the ocean. To do this, we combine the statistics of recent atmospheric activity with output from a state-of-the-art numerical ocean model that reveals physical processes driving changes in ocean quantities including ocean heat content. This approach suggests that the atmospheric patterns that stimulate the most energetic changes in ocean heat content in the northern North Atlantic are not necessarily the most energetic patterns present in the atmosphere. We test our findings by preventing these patterns from affecting the ocean in our numerical model and measure a strong reduction in ocean heat content fluctuations.

Intercomparison of initialization methods for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions with the NorCPM

Initialization is essential for accurate seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) climate predictions. The initialization schemes used differ on the component initialized, the Data Assimilation method, or the technique. We compare five popular schemes within NorCPM following the same experimental protocol: reanalysis from 1980 to 2010 and seasonal and decadal predictions initialized from the reanalysis. We compare atmospheric initialization—Newtonian relaxation (nudging)—against ocean initialization—Ensemble Kalman Filter—(ODA). On the atmosphere, we explore the benefit of full-field (NudF-UVT) or anomaly (NudA-UVT) nudging of horizontal winds and temperature (U, V, and T) observations. The scheme NudA-UV nudges horizontal winds to disentangle the role of wind-driven variability. The ODA+NudA-UV scheme is a first attempt at joint initialization of ocean and atmospheric components in NorCPM. During the reanalysis, atmospheric nudging improves the synchronization of the atmosphere and land components with the observed data. Conversely, ODA is more effective at synchronizing the ocean component with observations. The atmospheric nudging schemes are better at reproducing specific events, such as the rapid North Atlantic subpolar gyre shift. An abrupt climatological change using the NudA-UV scheme demonstrates that energy conservation is crucial when only assimilating winds. ODA outperforms atmospheric-initialized versions for S2D global predictions, while atmospheric nudging is preferable for accurately initializing phenomena in specific regions, with the technique’s benefit depending on the prediction’s temporal scale. For instance, atmospheric full-field initialization benefits the tropical Atlantic Niño at 1-month lead time, and atmospheric anomaly initialization benefits longer lead times, reducing hindcast drift. Combining atmosphere and ocean initialization yields sub-optimal results, as sustaining the ensemble’s reliability—required for ODA’s performance—is challenging with atmospheric nudging.

Prediction of slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in coupled model simulations

In coupled perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) experiments or for development of a single coupled global climate model (GCM) in general, models can exhibit a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that can result in unrealistically reduced transport of heat and other tracers. Here we propose a method that researchers running PPE experiments can apply to their own PPE to diagnose what controls the AMOC strength in their model and make predictions thereof. As an example, using data from a 25-member coupled PPE experiment performed with HadGEM3-GC3.05, we found four predictors based on surface heat and freshwater fluxes in four critical regions from the initial decade of the spinup phase that could accurately predict the AMOC transport in the later stage of the experiment. The method, to our knowledge, is novel in that it separates the effects of the drivers of AMOC change from the effects of the changed AMOC. The identified drivers are shown to be physically credible in that the PPE members exhibiting AMOC weakening possess some combination of the following characteristics: warmer ocean in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, fresher Arctic and Tropical North Atlantic Oceans and larger runoff from the Amazon and Orinoco Rivers. These characteristics were further traced to regional responses in atmosphere-only experiments. This study suggests promising potential for early stopping rules for parameter perturbations that could end up with an unrealistically weak AMOC, saving valuable computational resources. Some of the four drivers are likely to be relevant to other climate models so this study is of interest to model developers who do not have a PPE.

Ocean response to a century of observation-based freshwater forcing around Greenland in EC-Earth3

The acceleration of Greenland ice sheet melting over the past decades is raising concern regarding the impacts on ocean circulation in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions. Global climate models struggle to assess these impacts as they do not include a realistic amount of meltwater from the Greenland ice sheet. Using an extended observation-based dataset of runoff and solid ice discharge for the recent historical period (1920–2019), we force the EC-Earth3 climate model following the ensemble approach and protocol of a previous study using a different model. We observe a slight increase of the ensemble mean AMOC with a large spread in the response: 0.20±0.81\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$0.20\\pm 0.81$$\\end{document} Sv for the maximum AMOC at 45∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^{\\circ }$$\\end{document}N. We notice that members with a strong initial AMOC state (18 Sv) show a strengthening of the AMOC, while members with intermediate AMOC strength between 16 and 18 Sv are not affected by the freshwater forcing. Weaker initial AMOC members respond with a mean weakening of -0.21±0.58\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$${-}\\,0.21\\pm 0.58$$\\end{document} Sv of the AMOC. The AMOC ensemble spread is reduced by half in the freshwater forced ensemble at the end of the experiment and the negative trend is stronger compared to historical simulations without the forcing. This suggests the possible ability of the freshwater to constrain AMOC variability on multi-decadal time-scales. Comparison of the two ten member ensembles with ORAS5 reanalysis shows a reduction of the surface temperature and salinity biases in the freshwater forced ensemble in key regions such as the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and the Beaufort Gyre relative to the historical simulations. Recent trends are also more aligned with reanalysis in those regions. Arctic Ocean Atlantic Water subsurface core temperature is also closer to reanalysis but still strongly biassed. Members with a high AMOC initial state display an unrealistic Atlantic water layer core depth.

Structure of the Bottom Boundary Current South of Iceland and Spreading of Deep Waters by Submesoscale Processes

AbstractThe northeastern part of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is a key passage for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation upper cell. To this day, the precise pathway and intensity of bottom currents in this area is not clear. In this study, we make use of regional high resolution numerical modeling to suggest that the main bottom current flowing south of Iceland originates from both the Faroe‐Banks Channel and the Iceland‐Faroe Ridge and then flows along the topographic slope. When flowing over the rough topography, this bottom current generates a 200 m large bottom mixed layer. We further demonstrate that many submesoscale structures are generated at the southernmost tip of the Icelandic shelf, which subsequently spread water masses in the Iceland Basin. These findings have major implication for the understanding of the water masses transport in the North Atlantic, and also for the distribution of benthic species along the Icelandic shelf.

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre

Due to large northward heat transport, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strongly affects the climate of various regions. Its internal variability has been shown to be predictable decades ahead within climate models, providing the hope that synchronizing ocean circulation with observations can improve decadal predictions, notably of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). Climate predictions require a starting point which is a reconstruction of the past climate. This is usually performed with data assimilation methods that blend available observations and climate model states together. There is no unique method to derive the initial conditions. Moreover, this can be performed using full-field observations or their anomalies superimposed on the model's climatology to avoid strong drifts in predictions. How critical ocean circulation drifts are for prediction skill has not been assessed yet. We analyze this possible connection using the dataset of 12 decadal prediction systems from the World Meteorological Organization Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction. We find a variety of initial AMOC errors within the predictions related to a dynamically imbalanced ocean states leading to strongly displaced or multiple maxima in the overturning structures. This likely results in a blend of what is known as model drift and initial shock. We identify that the AMOC initialization influences the quality of the SPG predictions. When predictions show a large initial error in their AMOC, they usually have low skill for predicting internal variability of the SPG for a time horizon of 6-10 years. Full-field initialized predictions with low AMOC drift show better SPG skill than those with a large AMOC drift. Nevertheless, while the anomaly-initialized predictions do not experience large drifts, they show low SPG skill when skill also present in historical runs is removed using a residual correlation metric. Thus, reducing initial shock and model biases for the ocean circulation in prediction systems might help to improve their prediction for the SPG beyond 5 years. Climate predictions could also benefit from quality-check procedure for assimilation/initialization because currently the research groups only reveal the problems in initialization once the set of predictions has been completed, which is an expensive effort.

Drift bottle data hint at large-scale ocean circulation changes

Over the last two decades, in an effort to engage youth in polar science, the Students On Ice (SOI; https://studentsonice.com/) project has become a platform for youth to partake in scientific expeditions around the globe. Among the various activities offered, youth are able to join cruises in the North Atlantic or Arctic, and drop sealed glass bottles into the ocean. Of the thousands that have been deployed, 5% of bottles have been recovered and reported back to SOI with details on when and where they were found. Here, we compare the observational bottle data with virtual particle trajectories from a high resolution regional ocean model. Although modelling results indicate a higher likelihood of bottles reaching the shores of the western Atlantic, the majority of recovered bottles were found on the eastern side of the Atlantic. We attribute this disparity to differences in population density in Canada and Europe, biasing the recovery rates. Despite this bias, we find that changes in recovery locations over time are consistent with changes in the main ocean currents associated with the contraction and expansion of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre, as simulated in our ocean model. In 2007, a large number of bottles were found in Norway, coinciding with a contracted North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre during 2004-2008. While between 2012-2016, the majority of bottles were recovered on the British Isles, during a time of gyre expansion. These results underline the importance of large scale oceanic cycles for tracking marine debris and pollution, and show how even simple data collection methods, such as drift bottles, can provide clues to the changes in the large scale ocean circulation.

Recent variations in oceanic transports across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge

Abstract. Oceanic exchanges across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge (GSR) play a crucial role in shaping the Arctic climate and linking with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Most considered ocean reanalyses underestimate the observed 1993–2020 mean net inflow of warm and saline Atlantic Water of 8.0 ± 0.5 Sv by up to 15 %, with reanalyses at 0.25∘ resolution additionally exhibiting larger biases in the single inflow branches compared to higher-resolution products. The underestimation of Atlantic Water inflow translates into a low bias in mean oceanic heat flux at the GSR of 5 %–22 % in reanalyses compared to the observed value of 280 ± 18 TW. Interannual variations in reanalysis transports correlate reasonably well with observed transports in most branches crossing the GSR. Observations and reanalyses with data assimilation show a marked reduction in oceanic heat flux across the GSR of 4 %–9 % (compared to 1993–2020 means) during a biennial (2-year-long) period centered on 2018, a record low for several products. The anomaly was associated with a temporary reduction in geostrophic Atlantic Water inflow through the Faroe–Shetland branch and was augmented by anomalously cool temperatures of Atlantic Water arriving at the GSR. The latter is linked to a recent strengthening of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre and illustrates the interplay of interannual and decadal changes in modulating transports at the GSR.

North Atlantic subpolar gyre provides downstream ocean predictability

Slowly varying large-scale ocean circulation can provide climate predictability on decadal time scales. It has been hypothesized that the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) exerts substantial influence on climate predictability. However, a clear identification of the downstream impact of SPG variations is still lacking. Using the MPI-ESM-LR1.2 decadal prediction system, we show that along the Atlantic water pathway, a dynamical link to the SPG causes salinity to be considerably better predicted than temperature. By modulating the slow northward ocean propagation, the subsurface memory of SPG variations enables salinity to be skillfully predicted up to 8 years ahead. In contrast, the SPG loses influence on temperature before Atlantic water penetrates into the Nordic Seas, and in turn, limits temperature to be predicted only 2 years ahead. This study identifies the key role of SPG signals in downstream prediction and highlights how SPG signals determine prediction time scales for different quantities, opening the door for investigating potentially associated predictions in the subarctic for the earth system, marine ecosystems in particular.

Sea ice variability in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre throughout the Last Interglacial

The Last Interglacial period, Marine Isotope Stage 5e (MIS 5e ∼116–128 ka), is thought to have had a warmer, but less stable climate than the present interglacial. One key factor that has the potential to influence the ocean and climate is sea ice, but its presence and extent throughout MIS 5e is poorly constrained. Here we reconstruct the sea surface hydrography and sea ice variability in the Labrador Sea, a region influenced by the subpolar gyre (SPG) and where deep water formation occurs, in order to evaluate the potential of sea ice to drive or amplify ocean variability. We analysed biomarkers (highly branched isoprenoids, HBIs, and sterols), dinoflagellate cyst assemblages and stable oxygen isotopes from the late stages of MIS 6, throughout MIS 5e, into MIS 5d. Our results show that the late glacial MIS 6 was likely characterised by a thick multiyear sea ice cover. During the first phase of MIS 5e, the hydrography was highly variable. The initial 1500 years (128–126.5 ka) were characterised by the presence of a seasonal Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) accompanied by subsurface warmth. As the sea ice retreated, cool, likely polar-sourced water dominated the surface and subsurface ocean (126.5–124 ka), until an abrupt surge of sea ice marked the final pulse of the remnants of the deglaciation. The second half of MIS 5e (124–116 ka) was characterised by a persistent inflow of warm water, only interrupted by incursions of cold water as summer insolation declined. Seasonal sea ice returned to the Eirik Drift during MIS 5d. We infer that sea ice variability throughout MIS 5e was coupled with the variability of the SPG. Especially the location of a proximal MIZ to the Labrador Sea convection region could have been important for SPG dynamics. In addition, the presence of sea ice at the transitions into and out of MIS 5e could point to its important role in modulating and enhancing the magnitude and coherence of climate signals at major climatic transitions.

Sub-zero temperatures and large-scale weather patterns induce tooth damage in Icelandic arctic foxes.

Tooth damage in carnivores can reflect shifts in both diet and feeding habits, and in large carnivores, it is associated with increased bone consumption. Variation in tooth condition in Icelandic arctic foxes, a mesocarnivore, was recorded from 854 individual foxes spanning 29 years. We hypothesized that annual climatic variations, which can influence food abundance and accessibility, will influence tooth condition by causing dietary shifts toward less edible prey. We examined tooth condition in relation to four climatic predictors: mean annual winter temperature, indices of both the El Niño anomaly and North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the number of rain-on-snow days (ROS). We found unequivocal evidence for a strong effect of annual climate on tooth condition. Teeth of Icelandic foxes were in better condition when winter temperatures were higher, when the SPG was more positive, and when the number of ROS was low. We also found a substantial subregional effect with foxes from northeastern Iceland having lower tooth damage than those from two western sites. Contradicting our original hypothesis that foxes from northeastern Iceland, where foxes are known to scavenge on large mammal remains (e.g., sheep and horses), would show the highest tooth damage, we suggest that western coastal sites exhibited greater tooth damage because cold winter temperatures lowered the availability of seabirds, causing a shift in diet toward abrasive marine subsidies (e.g., bivalves) and frozen beach wrack. Our study shows that monitoring tooth breakage and wear can be a useful tool for evaluating the impact of climate on carnivore populations and that climate change may influence the condition and fitness of carnivores in complex and potentially conflicting ways.

Seasonal overturning variability in the eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre: a Lagrangian perspective

Abstract. Both observations and ocean reanalyses show a pronounced seasonality in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) within the eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre (eSPG). However, attributing this overturning seasonality to seasonal dense water formation remains challenging owing to the wide distribution of recirculation timescales within the Iceland and Irminger basins. Here, we investigate the nature of seasonal overturning variability using Lagrangian water parcel trajectories initialised across the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) East section within an eddy-permitting ocean sea ice hindcast. By adopting a Lagrangian perspective, we show that the seasonal minimum of the Eulerian overturning at OSNAP East in autumn results from a combination of enhanced stratification and increased southward transport within the upper East Greenland Current. This convergence of southward transport within the MOC upper limb is explained by decreasing water parcel recirculation times in the upper Irminger Sea, consistent with a gyre-scale response to seasonal wind forcing. To account for the diversity of recirculation times within the eSPG, we also quantify the Lagrangian overturning (LMOC) as the total dense water formation along water parcel trajectories. The majority of water parcels, sourced from the central and southern branches of the North Atlantic Current, fail to return to OSNAP East prior to experiencing wintertime diapycnal transformation into the lower limb, and thus they determine the mean strength of the LMOC within the eSPG (8.9 ± 2.2 Sv). The strong seasonality of the LMOC is explained by a small collection of upper-limb water parcels, circulating rapidly (≤ 8.5 months) in the upper Irminger and central Iceland basins, whose along-stream transformation is determined by their month of arrival at OSNAP East.

Unexpected cold season warming during the Little Ice Age on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

There is a general agreement that Northern Hemisphere temperatures have cooled over the past two millennia, culminating in the Little Ice Age. However, this understanding partly relies on the compilation of existing proxy records, the majority of which carry a warm season bias such that there is an underrepresentation of cold-season temperatures. Here we report a unique cold-season temperature record based on the alkenone paleothermometer from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau that spans the last two millennia. In contrast to the regional- and hemisphere-scale summer cooling, our reconstruction shows a long-term warming through the Medieval Climate Anomaly into Little Ice Age. We attribute these opposing temperature trends to combined effects of seasonally divergent insolation and North Atlantic subpolar gyre circulation. Our study indicates that the cold season during the Little Ice Age was not the coldest period of the last two millennia at least on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Two Distinct Phases of North Atlantic Eastern Subpolar Gyre and Warming Hole Evolution under Global Warming

Abstract The North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) plays a crucial role in determining the regional ocean surface temperature (SST), which has profound implications on the surrounding continental and coastal climate. Here, we analyze the Max Planck Institute-Grand Ensemble global warming experiments and show that the SPG can evolve in two distinct phases under continuous global warming. In the first phase, as the global mean surface temperature approaches 2-K warming, the eastern SPG intensifies in combination with a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), accompanied by a cooling of subpolar North Atlantic SST, known as the warming hole. The associated oceanic fingerprint matches with the observations over the last 15 years, where an intensification and cooling of the eastern SPG is related to salinity reduction at the eastern side of the SPG. However, for further warming beyond 2 K, in spite of a continuous decline in the AMOC, a northward shift of the mean zonal wind extends the subtropical gyre northward with an associated disruption of the eastern SPG intensification, resulting in the cessation of the warming hole. Therefore, a shift from the initially dominating oceanic drivers to the atmospheric driver results into a two-phase evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean SPG circulation and the associated SST under continuous global warming.

The Impact of Stochastic Mesoscale Weather Systems on the Atlantic Ocean

Abstract The ocean is forced by the atmosphere on a range of spatial and temporal scales. In numerical models the atmospheric resolution sets a limit on these scales and for typical climate models mesoscale (<500 km) atmospheric forcing is absent or misrepresented. Previous studies have demonstrated that mesoscale forcing significantly affects key ocean circulation systems such as the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we present ocean model simulations that demonstrate that the addition of realistic mesoscale atmospheric forcing leads to coherent patterns of change: a cooler sea surface in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic Ocean and deeper mixed layers in the subpolar North Atlantic in autumn, winter, and spring. These lead to robust statistically significant increases in the volume transport of the North Atlantic SPG by 10% and the AMOC by up to 10%. Our simulations use a novel stochastic parameterization—based on a cellular automata algorithm—to represent spatially coherent weather systems realistically over a range of scales, including down to the smallest resolvable by the ocean grid (∼10 km). Convection-permitting atmospheric models predict changes in the intensity and frequency of mesoscale weather systems due to climate change, so representing them in coupled climate models would bring higher fidelity to future climate projections.

Circulation and overturning in the eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre

This study describes new transport estimates of the North Atlantic Current in the Iceland Basin, and uses these results along with other contemporaneous measurements to determine mass and overturning budgets for the eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre. As part of the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP), estimates of the North Atlantic Current are determined using three full-depth dynamic height moorings spanning the Iceland Basin and are supplemented by Argo and satellite altimetry data. Along with historical estimates of the exchanges over the Iceland-Scotland Ridge, additional OSNAP results from the Rockall Trough and Rockall-Hatton Bank regions are used to calculate transport budgets in different density layers over a broad portion of the eastern subpolar gyre. Results show that 13–14 Sv of the North Atlantic Current (σθ < 27.8 kg m−3) flow northward into the middle of the Iceland Basin through a primary baroclinic flow near 23.5°W and a secondary quasi-barotropic flow near 26°W. Together with the observed northward flow in the Rockall-Hatton area, we conclude that 19–20 Sv of the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (σθ < 27.56 kg m−3) flows into the region where nearly 40 % of it (7.3 Sv) is converted into the lower limb primarily through progressive water mass modification from atmospheric cooling. This accounts for nearly half of the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation defined by the full OSNAP array extending across the basin from Greenland to Scotland.