Non-financial Corporate Sector Research Articles

Non-Financial Corporate Credit and Recessions

<ns2:p>The global financial crisis of 2008-09 (GFC) followed an extended period of growth in non-financial corporate (NFC) sector debt. NFC corporate debt resumed its climb a few years after the GFC, and the pace of growth picked up in 2020, as firms took on debt to cover revenue lost during the pandemic or to build up precautionary liquidity buffers.</ns2:p>

Spanish non-financial corporations and the COVID pandemic: vulnerability, resilience and transformation

Purpose This paper aims to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the Spanish non-financial corporations (NFC) to the shock from the COVID pandemic with consolidated income accounts data, and shows comparative labor productivity and endowment of organizational capital of Spanish firms, as indicators of their capabilities at the outset of the new digital transformation wave proposed by the next generation EU program. Design/methodology/approach The paper first describes the recent evolution (quarterly 2020 data) of the Spanish non-financial corporate sector (gross value added, labor cost, capital formation, profits) in the assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of the sector to the shock of the COVID pandemic. Then second, it estimates a probit model to evaluate the EU country effects in the explanation of the different propensity firms in the European Company Survey database to adopt innovative management and organization practices. Findings In the Spring of 2020, the Spanish NFC were still recovering from the great recession (low resilience), and the severe contraction in value-added and profits of the corporate sector in the first three quarters of the year evidences its high vulnerability. The proved complementarity between organizational and information related assets implies that the low endowment of organizational capital of Spanish firms, could be a severe limitation for the advancement toward digitalization. Research limitations/implications The aggregate corporate sector data used in the analysis of vulnerability and resilience of Spanish firms does not account for the heterogeneous effects of the pandemic across economic sectors (manufacturing and services, for example) and across firms (large versus small ones). Originality/value The paper complements the country-level analysis of the impact of the COVID pandemic in the Spanish economy with the analysis of the impact of the pandemic in the performance of the corporate sector. It provides one of the first analysis of the current endowment of organization capital of Spanish firms and highlights its relevance for productivity growth.

Redenomination risk in eurozone corporate bond spreads

We investigate the risk spillover from euro area government bond spreads (relative to a safe German government bond of similar maturity) to nonfinancial corporate bonds in France, the Netherlands (‘hard’ euro-area countries), and Italy, Portugal and Spain (‘soft’ euro-area countries). In addition to standard firm- and bond-specific determinants of corporate bonds (capturing liquidity and tax effects, and other euro area macroeconomic risks), we show that there is significant risk transfer from government bonds to the nonfinancial corporate sector. After decomposing the government bond spread into a default risk and a currency redenomination risk component, associated with a possible split in the euro, we find that redenomination risk has been a significant factor in the pricing of corporate bonds, particularly in the ‘soft’ euro-area countries.

The corporate income tax gap in South Africa: a top-down approach

A key objective of many governments is to improve tax revenue mobilization. One way to achieve this is by improving tax compliance. This requires accurate knowledge of the tax gap, i.e., the difference between what should be paid and what is actually paid. Tax gaps have been primarily estimated in developed countries, and very little is known about tax gaps in developing countries. Information about these gaps can help policy makers develop appropriate revenue mobilization strategies. This paper uses a top-down approach to estimate the tax gap in corporate income tax in South Africa. It uses national accounts statistics and tax administrative data to estimate the gap in the non-financial corporate sector, i.e., the difference between potential and actual corporate income tax under current tax legislation. The overall gap is estimated at 39 per cent of the potential tax liability or 2 per cent of GDP over the period 2015 to 2017.

The Corporate Saving Glut and the Current Account in Germany

We investigate, in the case of Germany, the positive correlation between the cyclical components of the corporate saving glut in the non-financial corporate sector and the current account surplus from a capital account perspective. Employing sign restrictions, our findings suggest that mostly labor supply, world demand and financial friction shocks account for the joint dynamics of excess corporate saving and the current account surplus. Household saving shocks, by contrast, cannot explain the correlation. We conclude that, explained through these factors, the corporate saving glut is an important driver of the cyclical component of the current account. JEL Classification: E32, F32, F45

COVID Response: The Primary and Secondary Corporate Credit Facilities

The Federal Reserve introduced the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) in response to the severe disruptions in corporate bond markets triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic shutdowns. The Corporate Credit Facilities (CCFs) were designed to work together to restore functioning of credit markets, with an overarching goal of facilitating credit provision to the non-financial corporate sector of the U.S. economy. This paper provides an overview of the CCFs, including detailing the facilities’ design, documenting their operations and usage, and describing their impact on corporate bond markets.

Did the ‘Real’ Economy Turn Financial? Mapping the Contours of Financialisation in the Non-Financial Corporate Sector

ABSTRACT The ‘financialisation’ of the economy is considered a key phenomenon of our time, but we lack large-scale empirical evidence of it. Has financialisation in the non-financial corporate sector really taken off in recent decades? To answer this question, I marshal data on all available publicly traded corporations in the largest 37 countries from 1991 to 2017. While there has been a decline in ‘real’ capital accumulation, I do not find firms are substituting tangible for financial investment. Financial income and financial asset shares have declined over time. Only by one measure – shareholder payouts – is there significant growth. To the extent we do see financialisation behaviour, it is overwhelmingly accounted for by very large and internationalised firms. In light of these findings, I argue that non-financial sector financialisation is connected to changes in the global production process which allows a small number of powerful firms to recycle surplus profits into financial capital.

Corporate Vulnerabilities in Vietnam and Implications of COVID-19

The paper uses firm-level data to assess the financial health of the Vietnamese non-financial corporate sector on the eve of pandemic. Our analysis finds that smaller domestic firms were particularly vulnerable even by regional comparison. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the COVID-19 shock will have a substantial impact on firms’ profitability, liquidity and even solvency, particularly in the hardest hit sectors that are dominated by SMEs and account for a sizeable employment share, but large firms are not immune to the crisis. Risks of default can propagate more broadly through upstream and downstream linkages to industries not directly impacted, with stresses potentially translating into an increase in corporate bankruptcies and bank fragility. Policy measures taken in the immediate aftermath of the crisis have helped alleviate liquidity pressures, but the nature of policy support may have to pivot to support the recovery.

Corporate Vulnerabilities in Vietnam and Implications of COVID-19

The paper uses firm-level data to assess the financial health of the Vietnamese non-financial corporate sector on the eve of pandemic. Our analysis finds that smaller domestic firms were particularly vulnerable even by regional comparison. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the COVID-19 shock will have a substantial impact on firms’ profitability, liquidity and even solvency, particularly in the hardest hit sectors that are dominated by SMEs and account for a sizeable employment share, but large firms are not immune to the crisis. Risks of default can propagate more broadly through upstream and downstream linkages to industries not directly impacted, with stresses potentially translating into an increase in corporate bankruptcies and bank fragility. Policy measures taken in the immediate aftermath of the crisis have helped alleviate liquidity pressures, but the nature of policy support may have to pivot to support the recovery.

Measuring the deadly embrace: Systemic and sovereign risks

This study contributes to the literature by making a first step toward implementing a comprehensive internally coherent measurement of systemic risk in a country. It measures systemic risk and the ensuing conditional contingent liabilities of the sovereign stemming from Luxembourg’s Other Systemically Important Institutions (OSIIs), the Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) to which they belong, the investment funds sponsored by the OSIIs, the household and the non-financial corporate sectors. The ensuing estimated systemic contingent claims are included in a stochastic version of the general government’s balance sheet to gauge their impact on the country’s sovereign risk. Results indicate that time-varying conditional implicit guarantees from OSSIs are larger than those from G-SIBs and investment funds, while systemic risk stemming from the household and non-financial corporate sectors is moderate. The robustness of the sovereign is not drastically affected by systemic risk stemming from the rest of the economy. However, illustrating the so-called “deadly embrace”, sovereign risk would significantly rise as a result of a historically plausible increase in sovereign assets’ value volatility combined with an economy-wide shock. The main policy implication is that financial stability stands on two columns, a resilient financial sector and a sustainable fiscal position.

Deleveraging China

ABSTRACT China’s debt issue has attracted extensive attention from investors and China watchers around the world. Previous studies generally concluded that China’s credit crisis is looming. Responding to these concerns, the Chinese authorities started to systematically deal with its debt issue from 2016. This study examines the factors that have contributed to the accumulations of debts, and reviews the deleveraging strategies adopted in different sectors such as non-financial corporate, financial corporate, household and public sectors. This study concludes that some positive progress has been achieved, and at the same time challenges remain.

Republic of Korea

Non-Financial Corporate Sector. Non-financial corporate leverage as share of GDP in Korea remains higher than peer countries but has remained stable since 2013 at around 100 percent of GDP. The stock of non-corporate debt has become slightly more resilient due to the deleveraging of non-conglomerate affiliated firms. Average firm performance has remained resilient for conglomerate-affiliated corporates but weakened for all other firms. As a result, despite the low interest rate environment, around one-quarter of total corporate debt (around 28 percent of GDP) is registered ‘at-risk’. Banks balance sheets are at risk as over half of non-financial corporate debt-at-risk resides with SMEs; Stress tests show that (i) Korean firms which are more indebted, less profitable, smaller and have lower turnover are more likely to experience difficulties servicing their debt; (ii) corporate balance sheets are vulnerable to a sudden hike in interest rates, which combined with a profit shock, could double the amount of debt-at-risk held by non-SME firms and; (iii) exchange rate shocks appear manageable given low FX debt and natural FX hedges. Under a downside macro-financial stress test scenario, non-SME credit losses would total a touch over 2 percent of GDP. Bank stress tests suggest that the maximum cumulative bank losses from distressed SME loans in a stress scenario would total around 2 percent of GDP. Together, these losses would be broadly manageable for the financial system to absorb.

Competition and monopoly in the U.S. economy: What do the industrial concentration data show?

A recent series of academic studies, think-tank reports, and news articles shows widespread attention to rising industrial concentration and market power in the U.S. economy. In this paper, we focus on concentration in the U.S. nonfinancial corporate sector to make three contributions to the literature. First, we use examples from the debate on industrial concentration to show that there are often-divergent predictions in the theoretical literature surrounding the expected consequences of concentration and monopolization for nonfinancial firms. Second, we use industry-level concentration data to describe recent trends in average concentration. We show that, while concentration increases across the majority of industries after the late 1990s, the retail and information-services sectors are particularly key for understanding recent trends in average industrial concentration. Third, we link our industry-level analysis with firm-level data to describe the relationship between industrial concentration and nonfinancial corporations’ profitability, markups, and investment. Consistent with the ambiguities in the theoretical literature, we find that these relationships are not uniform: while some highly concentrated industries confirm standard expectations with high markups, high profitability, and low investment rates, other highly concentrated industries earn lower-than-average markups and profits, suggesting that – in some industries – increased concentration and intensified competition may go hand in hand.

Pouring oil on fire: interest deductibility and corporate debt

This paper investigates the role of tax incentives towards debt finance in the buildup of leverage in the nonfinancial corporate (NFC) sector, using a large firm-level dataset. We find that so-called debt bias is a significant driver of leverage, for both small and medium-sized enterprises and larger firms, with its effect accounting for up to a quarter of total leverage. These findings support the tradeoff theory of capital structure. We furthermore explore what firm traits affect these results, documenting how the strength of this effect differs with firm size, the availability of collateral, income and income volatility, cash flow, and capital intensity. We conclude that leveling the playing field between debt and equity finance through tax policy reform would decrease NFC leverage.

Currency matching by non-financial corporations

Abstract The paper investigates firms’ willingness to match the currency composition of their assets and liabilities. Using detailed information at the loan contract level for the Hungarian non-financial corporate sector, the paper provides strong evidence to support the theory that currency matching plays a role in exporters’ debt currency choices. However, natural hedging is not the primary motive for firms to choose a foreign currency: it explains only 3.8 per cent of the overall new corporate foreign currency loans contracted by exporters and 2.9 per cent of the aggregate new foreign currency bank loans. Besides hedging, our results suggest that both carry trade and diversification strategies are relevant factors in firms’ currency-of-denomination decisions. Supply side factors are also found to be responsible for the prevalence of foreign currency loans among Hungarian corporate borrowers.

Corporate Vulnerabilities in Vietnam and Implications of COVID-19

The paper uses firm-level data to assess the financial health of the Vietnamese non-financial corporate sector on the eve of pandemic. Our analysis finds that smaller domestic firms were particularly vulnerable even by regional comparison. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the COVID-19 shock will have a substantial impact on firms' profitability, liquidity and even solvency, particularly in the hardest hit sectors that are dominated by SMEs and account for a sizeable employment share, but large firms are not immune to the crisis. Risks of default can propagate more broadly through upstream and downstream linkages to industries not directly impacted, with stresses potentially translating into an increase in corporate bankruptcies and bank fragility. Policy measures taken in the immediate aftermath of the crisis have helped alleviate liquidity pressures, but the nature of policy support may have to pivot to support the recovery.

Financial contagion and the role of firm characteristics

Using the Borsa Istanbul sector indices, this study shows that the bi-directional interactions between banking sector and non-financial corporate sectors intensify in high-volatility periods. The findings differ across sub-sectors. For example, during times of financial stress, banks have more interaction with the sectors that produce to the domestic market and that have less access to international finance, as opposed to the exporting sectors and sectors with external integration. Taking into account firm-level balance sheet characteristics, further suggest that, FX balance sheet mismatch, low export ratio, high leverage ratio and trade debt strengthen the degree of financial contagion.

Analyzing credit risk transmission to the nonfinancial sector in Europe: A network approach

SummaryWe use a factor model and elastic net shrinkage to model a high‐dimensional network of European credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Our empirical approach allows us to assess thejointtransmission of bank and sovereign risk to the nonfinancial corporate sector. Our findings identify a sectoral clustering in the CDS network, where financial institutions are in the center and nonfinancial entities as well as sovereigns are grouped around the financial center. The network has a geographical component reflected in different patterns of real‐sector risk transmission across countries. Our framework also provides dynamic estimates of risk transmission, a useful tool for systemic risk monitoring.

Rising wage differential between white-collar and blue-collar workers and market concentration: The case of the USA, 1964-2007

I suggest that market concentration at aggregate level has a significant structural impact on the wage differential between white-collar and blue-collar workers. Both phenomena are increasing as larger firms are more inclined to employ and pay more white-collar workers, in order to increase and/or maintain their market share by way of innovative tasks carried out by white-collars such as R&D, design and product differentiation, financial/capital market operations, market research, advertising and sales operations, etc. The causality from market concentration to wage differential runs through an effective demand channel and one based on the diffusion of innovations. The innovative contribution of the paper is to reveal this relationship of structural causality, and to provide a new measurement of aggregate market concentration which is calculated as the reverse of the break-even point. The argument is tested for the case of the USA between 1964 and 2007 using Vector Error Correction Model. The findings confirm the existence of a long-run positive relationship from market concentration in the nonfinancial corporate sector to the wage differential. JEL codes : L1, D4, J31

Bank capital (requirements) and credit supply: Evidence from pillar 2 decisions

We analyze how time-varying bank-specific capital requirements affect bank lending to the non-financial corporate sector as well as banks' balance sheet adjustments. To do so, we relate Pillar 2 capital requirements to a comprehensive corporate credit register coupled with bank and firm balance sheet data. Our analysis consists of three components. First, we investigate how capital requirements affect the supply of bank credit to the corporate sector, both on the intensive and extensive margin, as well as for different types of credit. Subsequently, we document how bank and firm characteristics as well as the monetary policy stance impact the relationship between bank capital requirements and the supply of credit. Finally, we examine how time-varying bank-specific capital requirements affect banks' balance sheet composition.