BackgroundRadiotherapy is an essential treatment component for patients with stage III non-small-cell lung cancer. Despite advances, survival remains poor. Proton beam therapy holds the promise of improving cure rates without increasing treatment-related toxicity. However, precision in dose delivery is sensitive to setup uncertainties. The conventional method of adding a margin to account for this problem can be inadequate. We aimed to use the probabilistic scenarios methodology to assess the robustness of intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) and volumetric arc therapy (VMAT). MethodsPlans were optimised by minimax robust optimisation (MM) and margin-based (planning target volume [PTV]) methods (MM–IMPT, PTV–IMPT, and VMAT). Robustness was assessed with probabilistically simulated setup errors. 35 perturbed doses were summed to model a treatment course. The CTV-D98 (dose to 98% of the clinical target volume) of each summed dose distribution was compared with the nominal plan and considered robust if within 5%. The variance of the CTV-D98 in IMPT and VMAT plans were compared using Levene's Test. Findings700 simulations from 20 plans were analysed. Despite dose variation over a simulated course of treatment, the robustness of each summed plan was within clinical limits. There was significantly less variance in the perturbed CTV-D98 in the MM–IMPT than in PTV–IMPT plans (4·43 cGy2vs 16·17, F=50·993, p<0·0001). There was no statistically significant difference between the variance in VMAT and MM–IMPT plans (2·23 cGy2vs 4·04, F=0·312, p=0·577). Target conformality improved with increasing number of beams and robust optimisation. All summed plans met normal tissue dose constraints. InterpretationInitial results showed that fractionation reduced uncertainties in dose distribution due to setup errors. Robustness of MM–IMPT and VMAT plans were similar. Although the present analysis has not considered range uncertainties and organ motion, the simulations highlight differences in plan qualities with different optimisation strategies. The probabilistic scenarios methodology might be used to estimate robustness of IMPT plans in stage III non-small-cell lung cancer. FundingCancer Research UK.
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