Net Effect Research Articles

Trends in the mortality of diabetes in Mexico from 1998 to 2022: a joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort effect analysis

ObjectiveThe purpose was to analyze age-standardized trends in diabetes mortality rates (DMR) from 1998 to 2022, stratified by sex and Mexican state, and the effects attributable to age, period, and cohort by sex. Study designJoinpoint regression and age-period-cohort effect analysis. MethodsBased on the tenth revision of the International Classification of Diseases, E11, E12, E13, and E14 codes of the death certificate, a daily record of mortality was extracted from the death certificate attributable to diabetes as the main cause. From 1998 to 2022, sexes and ages (≥20 years) were used to calculate the crude mortality rates and standardized at the national and Mexican state levels. Additionally, the age-period-cohort model was used to examine age, period, and cohort effects. ResultsFrom 1998 to 2005, the age-adjusted DMR increased by 3.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.7, 4.5) for the total population, as shown by the joinpoint regression analysis at a national level; from 2017 to 2020, it increased by 7.4% (95% CI: 0.6, 14.8). The DMR with the highest increase during the study period came mainly from states in the country's southeastern region, 2.3% to 3.7% per year. The net age and period effects showed that mortality increased with advancing age and with going time, respectively; and the net cohort effect revealed that mortality increased in more recent birth cohorts, mainly in men Rate Ratio (RR) = 2.37 (95% CI: 2.29, 2.46) vs RR = 1.13 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.17). ConclusionThe DMR increased among older age groups. The period effect showed that mortality increased over time. Furthermore, the cohort effect showed that mortality increased in more recent birth cohorts, especially among men.

Integrated trophic position as a proxy for food‐web complexity

Abstract There are two distinct approaches to describing the distributions of biomass and species in food webs: one to consider them as discrete trophic levels (TLs); and the other to consider them as continuous trophic positions (TPs). Bridging the gap between these two perspectives presents a nontrivial challenge in integrating biodiversity and food‐web structure. Food network unfolding (FNU) is a technique used to bridge this gap by partitioning the biomass of species into integer TLs to compute three complexity indices, namely vertical (DV), horizontal (DH) and range (DR) diversity (D indices), through decomposition of Shannon's index H′. Using FNU, the food web (a network of species with unique TPs) is converted to a linear food chain (a biomass distribution at discrete TLs). This enables us to expect that the unfolded biomass within species decreases exponentially as the TL increases. Under this condition, the mean TL value in unfolded food chains is hypothesized to have an exponential relationship with the vertical diversity, DV. To explore this, we implemented FNU and calculated D indices for food webs publicly available at EcoBase (n = 158) and calculated the integrated TP (iTP), defined as the biomass‐weighted average TP of a given food web. The iTP corresponds to the mean TL in unfolded food chains and can be empirically measured through compound‐specific isotope analysis of amino acids (CSIA‐AA). Although our analysis is biased towards marine ecosystems, we revealed an exponential relationship between iTP and DV, suggesting that iTP can serve as a measurable proxy for DV. Furthermore, we found a positive correlation between the iTP observed in the total communities (total iTP) and the iTPs of partial communities consisting only of species with 2.0 ≤ TP < 3.0 (partial iTP; r2 = 0.48), suggesting that DV can be predicted using partial iTP. Our findings suggest that the net effect of species diversity, excluding the effect of biomass (corresponding to H′ − DV), on food‐web complexity can be revealed by combining CSIA‐AA with biodiversity analysis (e.g. environmental DNA).

Unveiling the antecedent configurations of cerebral infarction recurrence using qualitative comparative analysis

BackgroundIschemic stroke is characterized by high incidence, high disability rate, and high recurrence rate. Stroke recurrence is a complex pathological phenomenon involving multiple factors. Logistic regression analysis is widely used in traditional medical statistical analysis. However, this method mainly investigates the net effect of single factors using large sample sizes. The fsQCA method is a more suitable means of analyzing the configuration effect of risk factors affecting cerebral infarction recurrence, because it is based on holism and considers interaction effects among the risk factors. ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors of cerebral infarction recurrence using fsQCA, to reveal the configurations that resulted in cerebral infarction recurrence, and to provide novel ideas for the prevention of recurrence. MethodsA total of 155 cerebral infarction patients admitted to the Department of Neurology of a tertiary class hospital in Shandong province from June 2020 to June 2021 were selected to participate. The demographic characteristics and risk factors associated with recurrence of cerebral infarction were collected, and participants were followed for one year. ResultsThe comparative analysis was performed by fuzzy-set (fsQCA 3.0) software. We conducted a configuration analysis of the risk factors of cerebral infarction recurrence and generated eight different configurations by analyzing various combinations of eight risk factors. ConclusionThis study presented results different from those reported in studies using linear regression models. It took into consideration the configurational effect of each conditional variable on cerebral infarction recurrence. To prevent such recurrences, medical workers should evaluate the combination of multiple influencing factors, instead of focusing on a single factor.

Influence of Land Uses on Soil Carbon Mineralization in Selected Agro-ecological Units of South Kerala, India

Soil is a major reservoir of terrestrial carbon and it plays an important role in the global carbon cycle. The soil organic carbon (SOC) is the fundamental factor for sustainable agriculture because of the ability in maintaining the soil fertility which is critical to soil productivity. Soil carbon pool has gained paramount importance in the recent decades owing to the alarming issues of climate change and global warming. Land use change was found to have a larger net effect on SOC storage than projected climate change. Depending on the land use management practices, soils can be a net sink or source for CO2. In this regard the present study was carried out to assess the impact of different land uses on carbon storage and mineralization in soils of selected agro-ecological units of south Kerala.The agro-ecological units (AEUs) of south Kerala namely, southern coastal plain (AEU 1), Onattukara sandy plain (AEU 3), southern laterites (AEU 8), south central laterites (AEU 9) and southern and central foothills (AEU 12) were selected. In each AEU, different agricultural land use categories as described by IPCC for the carbon inventory such as, garden land (coconut), wet land (rice), fallow (uncultivated) and plantation (rubber) were also selected for the study. The potential for carbon mineralization in soil was assessed by evaluating factors such as Total organic carbon, mineralizable carbon, particulate organic carbon, global warming potential, carbon distribution, and turnover. The total organic carbon and particulate organic carbon were higher in rubber land use and AEU 12. The mineralizable C content in soil varied from 1.40 to 3.45, 1.18 to 3.41, 1.04 to 3.04, 1.23 to 3.35 and 1.01 to 3.02 mg g⁻¹ in AEU 1, 3, 8, 9 and 12 respectively. The highest value was observed from AEU 1 and rice land use. Similar trend was obtained for global warming potential of soils based on CO2 evolution which varied from 31.82 to 78.41, 26.89 to 79.02, 22.89 to 69.02, 28.03 to 76.06 and 22.96 to 68.64 in AEU 1, 3, 8, 9 and 12 respectively. The C proportion and turnover rates were in the range of 0.25 to 0.77 and 0.04 to 0.17 respectively. The C proportion was the highest in AEU 12 and rubber land use whereas the C turnover was the highest in AEU 1 and rice land use.

GFAP Upregulation by Astrocytes May Attenuate Phospho‐Tau Levels in a Tauopathy Mouse Model

AbstractBackgroundAstrocytes react to amyloid‐β plaques and phospho‐tau (pTau) neurofibrillary tangles in the Alzheimer’s disease brain but their net effect on these Alzheimer’s neuropathological hallmarks remains controversial. A well‐known feature of these so‐called “reactive astrocytes” is the upregulation of the intermediate filament glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), which is thought to be necessary for astrocyte process motility and glial scar formation. Here we asked whether this cytoskeletal remodeling helps reactive astrocytes control the burden of pTau species and/or protect synapses and neurons.MethodWe overexpressed human GFAP isoform 1 specifically in astrocytes of 4‐month‐old, sex‐balanced, THY‐Tau22 mice (Thy1.2‐MAPT G272V/P301S 1N4R, GFAP mice, n = 11)—when neurofibrillary tangles start to appear in the hippocampal CA1 subfield—using a viral transfer strategy with single retro‐orbital intravenous injection of AAV‐PHP.B (2.5×1011 vg) and the gfaABC1D promoter. We euthanized the mice at 11 months of age (i.e., prior to the tauopathy plateau) and performed immunohistochemical and/or biochemical analysis of astrocyte, tau, and synaptic markers. Negative control groups consisted of THY‐Tau22 littermates injected with either phosphate‐buffered saline (PBS mice, n = 9) or an AAV‐PHP.B vector encoding the enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP mice, n = 10).ResultsImmunohistochemistry confirmed the astrocyte‐specific expression of human GFAP with an apparent integration in their intermediate filament network. We observed statistically significant reductions or marginally significant trends toward decrease in hippocampal SDS‐soluble levels AT8/pTauSer202/Thr205 and AT8‐immunoreactive area fraction, and a shift of AT180/pTauThr231 from SDS‐soluble (decreased) to TBS‐soluble (increased) hippocampal protein fractions, in GFAP vs. EGFP and/or PBS mice, but no changes in soluble or insoluble total tau or AT270/pTauThr181 across groups. In the cortex, we detected no changes in soluble or insoluble total tau, AT8/pTauSer202/Thr205, or AT270/pTauThr181 levels, nor in AT8‐immunoreactive area. Lastly, we found no significant differences across groups in brain weight, cortical or hippocampal areas, nor in the cortical levels of synaptophysin, Psd95, or the glutamate transporters Eaat1/Glast‐1 and Eaat2/Glt‐1.ConclusionOur findings indicate that GFAP upregulation by astrocytes—a classic feature of reactive astrogliosis—may attenuate neuronal pTau burden in a tauopathy mouse model. Ongoing work will further elucidate whether this aspect of reactive astrocytes impacts pTau‐induced neurodegeneration.

Effect of Somatostatin on hepatic blood flow: preliminary results

Background: Somatostatin (SOMATO) administration affects hepatic blood flow (HBF); however, its clinical effect remains ill-defined. The aim of this study is to assess the clinical effects of SOMATO administration on HBF during major abdominal surgery by comparing HBF in patients with and without intra-operative SOMATO admin-istration. Methods: This retrospective analysis used data from two separate prospective studies including patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy and was approved by the Ghent University Hospital ethical committee. All patients received total intravenous an-esthesia, using target-controlled infusion, and guided by a depth of anesthesia monitor. Schnider model was used for propofol, and Minto model was used for remifentanil. All patients received goal-directed hemodynamic therapy guided and recorded by Pul-sioFlex monitoring (Getinge Group). Portal vein blood flow and arterial hepatic blood flow were measured using ultrasound transit time flow measurements (Medi-Stim®). Both PVF and HAF were indexed using cardiac index. Patients were divided in two groups, receiving SOMATO (group S) versus control group not receiving SOMATO (group C). The Shapiro-Wilk test was used for testing normal distribution. Statistical testing was done using a Welch T-test or a Wilcoxon test. Results: From 6/2017 to 10/2020, a total of thirty-seven patients were analyzed. Twenty-five patients received SOMATO (group S) whereas twelve patients did not (group C). In Group S, PVFi was significantly reduced in patients receiving SOMATO compared to the control group (p = 0.005). HAFi was similar in both groups. The net effect on total HBFi was significantly lower in group S (p = 0.027). Hemodynamic parameters did not differ between both groups. Conclusions: SOMATO significantly reduced PVFi in the surgical patients while HAFi remained similar in both groups. As a result, total HBFi was significantly lower in SO-MATO-treated patients.

Manipulation of Dietary DHA does not Alter DHA Brain Uptake Kinetics in Mice Despite Changing Brain and Plasma DHA Levelsvs

AbstractBackgroundIncreased brain docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) uptake reflects a compensatory mechanism for maintaining brain DHA homeostasis and can be captured through PET‐MRI scan uptake studies using radiolabeled DHA. It has been previously shown that APOE4 status and alcohol intake alter brain DHA uptake in mice. Whether a change in DHA intake affects the brain DHA incorporation coefficient (K*) however is not known.MethodFour‐month‐old C57BL/6J mice were fed either a diet rich in DHA (15 kcal% Fat, 1.7 g/kg ALA, and 7g/kg DHA) or deficient in DHA (15 kcal% Fat and 0.9 mg/kg ALA) for 4 months. At 8 months, anesthetized mice were subjected to dynamic PET‐MRI for 30 min following i.v. injection of 22‐[18F]fluorodocosahexaenoic acid ([18F]FDHA), prepared in‐house through radiosynthesis. Using an image‐derived cardiac input function, brain uptake was assessed by estimating [18F]FDHA K* values using both the Patlak model approach and the irreversible two‐tissue compartmental model (Irr2TCM) with and without correction of the brain radioactivity for radioactive spillover from the skull. Mice were then sacrificed, and the plasma and brains were analyzed using liquid chromatography‐mass spectrometry (LC‐MS) to evaluate differences in the unlabeled concentrations of fatty acids into phospholipids, triglycerides, and other lipids.ResultThere was no significant difference in the [18F]FDHA K* estimates (with either Patlak or Irr2TCM) between mice fed a DHA‐rich or a DHA‐deficient diet. LC‐MS based lipidomic analysis showed that the DHA‐rich diet significantly increased DHA concentration in triglycerides in plasma and in phosphatidylethanolamine in the brain.ConclusionThese results suggest that under physiological conditions, increased dietary intake of DHA in wild‐type mice increases DHA in brain phosphatidylethanolamine and in plasma triglycerides without changing the DHA K*. The net effect likely is increased brain DHA uptake, equal to the product of unesterified DHA plasma concentration and K*. Imaging brain DHA with dynamic [18F]FDHA PET‐MRI is a potentially useful tool not only to investigate the APOE4 phenotype, which promotes DHA dysregulation, but also to assess dietary and pharmacological interventions that affect brain DHA homeostasis as well as to guide future treatments.

Particle-in-Cell Simulations of Sunward and Anti-sunward Whistler Waves in the Solar Wind

We present particle-in-cell simulations of a combined whistler heat flux and temperature anisotropy instability that is potentially operating in the solar wind. The simulations are performed in a uniform plasma and initialized with core and halo electron populations typical of the solar wind beyond about 0.3 au. We demonstrate that the instability produces whistler-mode waves propagating both along (anti-sunward) and opposite (sunward) to the electron heat flux. The saturated amplitudes of both sunward and anti-sunward whistler waves are strongly correlated with their initial linear growth rates, , where for typical electron betas we have 0.6 ≲ ν ≲ 0.9. We show that because of the relatively large spectral width of the whistler waves, the instability saturates through the formation of quasi-linear plateaus around the resonant velocities. The revealed correlations of whistler wave amplitudes and spectral widths with electron beta and temperature anisotropy are consistent with solar wind observations. We show that anti-sunward whistler waves result in an electron heat flux decrease, while sunward whistler waves actually lead to an electron heat flux increase. The net effect is the electron heat flux suppression, whose efficiency is larger for larger electron betas and temperature anisotropies. The electron heat flux suppression can be up to 10%–60% provided that the saturated whistler wave amplitudes exceed about 1% of the background magnetic field. The experimental applications of the presented results are discussed.

Vibrational Spectroscopic, 13C NMR, DFT Studies on Chlorofullerene (C60Cl6): A Potential Bioactive Agent

Abstract. The present work comprises the systematic computational chemical findings on Chlorofullerene (C60Cl6). The molecular structure of C60Cl6 was optimized by density function theory (DFT)/B3LYP model of 6-31G(d,p) basis set using Gaussian 09 program. The infrared and Raman spectra were simulated and assigned for C60Cl6 molecule. Carbon – chlorine stretching vibrations are found to be in the range 150-900 cm-1 and the chains are strongly affected with the radial vibrations of the carbon sphere. The optimized geometries at ground-state of the molecules are calculated without any geometrical restriction, except those enforced by symmetry and the molecules are found to be minima on their respective potential energy surfaces. The optimized structures have been subjected to Gauge including atomic orbital (GIAO), the chemical shielding tensors using B3LYP/6-31G(d,p) in solvent phase with the aim of calculating 13C chemical shift values with respect to trimethylsilane (TMS) as computational reference. Molecular acuteness and stability were investigated using the Frontier molecular orbitals (FMO) analysis. The molecular electrostatic potential (MEP) mapping provides a valuable information regarding the net electrostatic effect produced by net charge distribution of the molecule. Chlorofullerenes are considered to be promising compounds for the investigation of biological action which show pronounced anti-HIV action and low toxicity. Hence, these results set goal in scheming the biocompatible molecules which will be useful in the field of carbon nano medicine and drug delivery application.

Abstract PR017: Discovery and clinical evaluation of a potent and selective A2A/2B dual receptor antagonist

Abstract Elevated adenosine levels present in the tumor microenvironment (TME) produce a net immunosuppressive effect through inhibition of T cell function by two mechanisms of action: Direct T cell effects via A2A receptor agonism and indirect T cell effects via agonism of A2A and A2B receptors on myeloid cells. Our team sought to identify a small molecule dual antagonist of the A2A and A2B receptors with the ability to decrease the immunosuppressive effects of adenosine in the TME and restore anti-tumor immune response. Drawing on our prior experience in the design of A2A receptor antagonists for the potential treatment of Parkinson’s disease, we developed a molecule with sub-nanomolar and single-digit nanomolar affinities for the A2A and A2B receptors respectively and greater than 100-fold selectivity over the related A1 and A3 receptors. A single dose assessment of this molecule in human subjects demonstrated the ability to achieve >99% target engagement (TE) at the A2A receptor and >90% TE at the A2B receptor at trough concentration. This presentation will, for the first time, describe the discovery and early clinical evaluation of this molecule, including disclosure of the structure, human pharmacokinetics, safety, and tolerability. Citation Format: Duane DeMong, Sheila Ranganath, Jared Cumming, Matthew Larsen, Yonglian Zhang, Christopher Plummer, Amjad Ali, Anthony Palmieri, Evan Barry, Pierre Daublain, Pranav Gupta, Manash Chatterjee, Vincent Giranda, Jeremy Presland, Sebastian Schneider, Paul Ciaccio, Daniel Tatosian, Aaron Sather, Ben Turnbull, Steven Silverman, Harry Chobanian, Harini Krishnamurthy, Richard Wnek, Roshi Afshar, Stephen Crowley, Alita Miller, Mark Ayers, Alan Whitehead, Marlene Hinton, Derek Chiang, Robert Orr, Jill Chrencik. Discovery and clinical evaluation of a potent and selective A2A/2B dual receptor antagonist [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR-NCI-EORTC Virtual International Conference on Molecular Targets and Cancer Therapeutics; 2023 Oct 11-15; Boston, MA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Mol Cancer Ther 2023;22(12 Suppl):Abstract nr PR017.

Multidimensional risk spillover among power, coal, and carbon markets: empirical evidence from China.

Amidst the "double carbon" target, China is vigorously promoting the transformation of the electricity and coal markets and carbon markets widely regarded as an effective policy tool for managing carbon emissions. Leveraging sample data from January 3, 2017, to December 16, 2022, this study investigates the risk spillover effects among China's power, coal, and carbon markets via rolling window technology and the DY spillover index. The empirical results indicate a significant long-term two-way asymmetric spillover effect among these markets. Specifically, the Guangdong carbon market acts as both an exporter and receiver of risky fluctuations across the two sample periods. The coal market primarily exhibits a net risk spillover effect on the Guangdong and Hubei carbon markets. Furthermore, the aggregate spillover index reveals that the volatility spillover effects of the power, coal, and carbon markets are significantly amplified by extreme risk events. The rise and volatility of coal prices under the influence of these extreme risk events may lead to government intervention in the power sector, which in turn has an impact on the coal market. These findings underscore the time-varying nature of risk spillovers among markets and have important implications for risk management and the construction of diversified energy markets.

Effects of jellyfish and black seabream releasing on marine ecosystems: A mass balance approach for the coastal area of southern Zhejiang, China

This study evaluated the potential effect of stock enhancement on a coastal ecosystem. Based on data collected from the 2020 bottom trawl survey and literature information, an Ecopath model was constructed containing 19 functional groups representing the coastal area of southern Zhejiang, China. Jellyfish (Rhopilema esculenta) and black seabream Acanthopagrus schlegelii were selected as target-enhancing species based on their extensive juvenile release records. The maximum carrying capacity of these two species was estimated by static Ecopath and the potential ecological effects of enhancement activity for these two species were evaluated by the Ecosim routine. The trophic level (TL) of the functional groups in the coastal area of southern Zhejiang ecosystem ranged from 1 (primary producers) to 4.56 (sharks). The mean transfer efficiency of the coastal area ecosystem of southern Zhejiang was 8.71%, in which the relatively low transfer efficiency from TL2 to 3 was considered the main bottleneck that limited the biomass of higher TL species in this ecosystem. System characteristics indicated that the coastal area ecosystem of southern Zhejiang was vulnerable to disturbances and had low recovery ability. Enhancement simulation results indicated that the enhancement of jellyfish and black seabream had a partial impact on the functional groups of the ecosystem. Both jellyfish and black seabream enhancements adversely affected most groups of fish, cephalopods, and crabs, while jellyfish release stimulated the biomass of crabs. Ultimately, the present study indicates that the enhancement of black seabream decreased the total fish biomass via complex trophic interactions in the food web. Additionally, this study shows that recapture rates might not be sufficient to evaluate the net effect of stock enhancement, and therefore highlight the importance of ecosystem-based assessments for stock enhancement.

The Impact of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike on the Entertainment Industry: An Empirical Evidence

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on the entertainment industry, with a focus on the American film company Disney. The study utilizes a VAR model for impulse response analysis and an ARMA-GARCH model for assessing stock returns and conditional variances. The findings indicate that a rise in the USD index leads to a decrease in Disney's earnings from foreign markets, and a Fed rate hike could have a negative impact on its profitability. However, higher interest rates can encourage funds to flow into the stock market and increase the demand for stocks, leading to a rise in stock prices. Negative effect dominates at the beginning, followed by positive effect, and then changes back to negative effect, gradually net effect tends to 0 over time. The paper suggests that investors diversify their portfolio, and that enterprises develop targeted risk management and seek policy support. The study provides insights into the multifaceted effects of a Fed rate hike on the entertainment industry, and contributes to the existing literature on exchange rate risk and capital structure in multinational corporations.

A quantile regression approach to identify risk factors for high blood glucose levels among Bangladeshi individuals.

Diabetes mellitus, characterized by high blood glucose, is an overwhelming public health concern globally, including in Bangladesh. The implication of this trend may pose a significant challenge to the health systems due to the lack of awareness and improper management of this chronic disease. To formulate strategies for public health planning, this study aims to explore the potential risk factors for elevated blood glucose levels among Bangladeshi individuals using advanced statistical methods and a nationally representative data set. This study utilized data from the 2017-18 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey and included 11,863 individuals. A nonparametric Kruskal-Wallis test assessed the significant association between fasting plasma glucose levelsand various risk factors. Additionally, a robust quantile regression model was applied to examine the net effects of each risk factor at different quantiles of the distribution. The prevalence of diabetes is 8.1% among individuals in the study population, with variations observed across different administrative divisions in the country. Respondents from the Dhaka division respondents had a higher likelihood (24.1%) of having elevated plasma glucose and the Rangpur division had a lower risk (10.3%) of developing diabetes disease. This study identified several potential risk factors associated with elevated blood glucose levels, including hypertensive disease, overweight and obese body mass index, higher economic status, reduced physical activities, and older age, significantly contributing to develop diabetes mellitus. This study recommends promoting healthy lifestyles, increased physical activity, effective hypertension management, obesity reduction, and nationwide screening programs to control diabetes and noncommunicable diseases in Bangladesh. These preventive measures are crucial for reducing the existing prevalence of diabetes and working towardachieving the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030.

Reducing poverty in the UK to mitigate energy poverty by the 10% and LIHC indicators: What tax changes are needed, and what are the consequences for CO2 emissions?

Energy poverty is driven by four factors: poverty; high energy prices; energy-inefficiency; and specific household characteristics. Increasingly refined definitions of energy poverty (and/or vulnerability) identify types or locations of households most likely to be suffering it. But there is also a place for a different approach, considering poverty reduction directly, as poverty is a necessary component within all energy poverty definitions. This paper investigates how high the UK's top marginal tax rates would need to be, to provide funds to lift low-income UK households above the poverty threshold as defined by the low-income-high-cost (LIHC) and 10% energy poverty indicators. It finds that the increased top tax rates would still be in line with those of other European OECD countries. Using recent and new research on income elasticities of CO2 emissions, it then estimates the net direct effects on CO2 emissions of this redistribution. For both scenarios the most likely effect is a small reduction in net CO2 emissions. Further, indirect downward pressures on CO2 emissions due to reduced income among the highest earners are likely to lead to yet more favourable outcomes for net CO2 emission reduction.

International labour migration, farmland fallowing, livelihood diversification and technology adoption in Nepal

This article investigates the effect of temporary international labour migration on farmland fallowing, adoption of agricultural intensification technologies and livelihood diversification. Using nationally representative data, combined with empirical methods that allow causal inference, the authors find that households with international migrants are over 50 per cent more likely (based on propensity score matching estimates) to have fallow land than those without. Temporary international migration promotes the adoption of some agricultural intensification technologies and causes rural households to diversify their livelihoods. Land fallowing may increase food insecurity, while agricultural intensification may improve it, for an uncertain net effect.

Contribution of Agricultural Productivity to Industrialization in Africa

Purpose: The objective of this study is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of agricultural productivity on industrialization. It also looks for the mediating role of infrastructural development on the effects of agricultural productivity on industrialization. Method: The system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methodology for 45 African countries is applied. It covers the period from 2005 to 2022. Results: The results show that agricultural productivity has a positive significant role on industrialization in Africa. This result is robust when industrialization is measured by employment in industry (EMIND). Infrastructural development has an enhancing role on the agricultural productivity-industrialization nexus. These results are robust for the two different measures of industrialization but are more enhancing on Employment in Industry than on Manufacturing Value Added (MVA). The study also observes that agricultural productivity interacts with the Water and Sanitation Index (WSS) on MVA to yield a positive net effect. Moreover, agricultural productivity interacts with ICT (Information and Communication Technology) and ECI (Electricity composite index) on both MVA and EMIND to yield positive synergy effects. Implications: The Electricity Composite Index is still not sufficient in Africa. Equally, there is a need for some countries like Chad, Ethiopia, Mozambique, and Niger to boost WSS above this threshold of 32.96 since this threshold is below the mean value for Africa as a whole. Policy-wise, it could be recommended that both agricultural productivity and infrastructural development should be strengthened, with emphasis on electricity, so as to achieve the much-needed level of industrialization for Africa.

Net effect of chemical erosion in a tropical basin on carbon cycle: Constraints from elemental and sulfur isotopic composition of the Mahanadi river water

Chemical erosion in river basins influence the climate by both consuming (via silicate erosion and carbon burial) and releasing (via H2SO4-mediated carbonate weathering and organic oxidation) atmospheric CO2. Net erosional effect of a basin on carbon cycle, therefore, requires precise rate assessment of all these pathways; combined data for the four processes for a given basin are sparse. In this contribution, we have quantified these process intensities for a large tropical basin (Mahanadi river) from the eastern part of India using new time-series (weekly) data for dissolved major ions and sulfur isotopes, and compiled data for rhenium concentrations and particulate carbon isotopes for the basin. The discharge-weighted silica concentrations (∼215 μM) of these samples is higher than that reported as global average for rivers (∼145 μM), indicating intense silicate erosion in the basin. The δ34S of the riverine sulfates vary between 8.8 ‰ and 17 ‰, with a discharge-weighted average of 12 ± 4 ‰ (global riverine value ∼4.4 ± 4.5‰). Temporal changes in concentrations for most of the elements (and δ34S) show relatively higher (enriched) values during lean-flow stages. Mass balance calculations involving Ca, Mg and Si values confirm that these seasonal changes are mainly due to increase (by 18 ± 9%) of groundwater supply to the stream during non-monsoon seasons. The silicate-derived cations (Catsilicate) for the Mahanadi show minimal changes during monsoon (36 ± 5%) and non-monsoon (33 ± 8%) seasons. These data correspond to a CO2 consumption rate of 2.4 ± 1.6 tC/km2/yr, which is about two times higher than that reported for global rivers. Comparison of δ34S values of riverine sulfate with its possible sources computes the relative supply of sulfates from atmospheric deposition (38%), gypsum (46%), and sulfides (16% (a lower limit)) to the river. The minimal contribution via sulfide oxidation confirms low CO2 release (0.1 ± 0.1 tC/km2/yr) in this basin through sulfuric-acid mediated carbonate weathering. Average rhenium for this river is 5 ± 3 pmol/kg. The source apportionment using S/Re and Na/Re ratios indicates that 85 ± 10% of the Re is derived through organic oxidation. The rhenium data are used to estimate the CO2 release rate (0.50 ± 0.57 tC/km2/yr) by oxidation of petrogenic carbon, which is higher than the estimated organic burial rate (0.27 ± 0.12) for the basin. The estimated four erosion rates confirm a net negative (∼ − 2.1 ± 1.7 tC/km2/yr) effect of chemical erosion in the Mahanadi basin on the CO2 budget. Low sulfide-oxidation in this supply-limited regime is possibly linked to limited exposure of fresher minerals, whereas high silicate erosion in the basin is consistent with its silicate-dominated lithology and tropical climate.

Systematic distributions of interaction strengths across tree interaction networks yield positive diversity-productivity relationships.

Understanding the mechanisms underlying diversity-productivity relationships (DPRs) is crucial to mitigating the effects of forest biodiversity loss. Tree-tree interactions in diverse communities are fundamental in driving growth rates, potentially shaping the emergent DPRs, yet remain poorly explored. Here, using data from a large-scale forest biodiversity experiment in subtropical China, we demonstrated that changes in individual tree productivity were driven by species-specific pairwise interactions, with higher positive net pairwise interaction effects on trees in more diverse neighbourhoods. By perturbing the interactions strength from empirical data in simulations, we revealed that the positive differences between inter- and intra-specific interactions were the critical determinant for the emergence of positive DPRs. Surprisingly, the condition for positive DPRs corresponded to the condition for coexistence. Our results thus provide a novel insight into how pairwise tree interactions regulate DPRs, with implications for identifying the tree mixtures with maximized productivity to guide forest restoration and reforestation efforts.

A colorful look at climate sensitivity

Abstract. The radiative response to warming and to changing concentrations of CO2 is studied in spectral space. If, at a particular wavenumber, the emission temperature of the constituent controlling the emission to space does not change its emission temperature, as is the case when water vapor adopts a fixed relative humidity in the troposphere or for CO2 emissions in the stratosphere, spectral emissions become independent of surface temperature, giving rise to the idea of spectral masking. This way of thinking allows one to derive simple, physically informative, and surprisingly accurate expressions for the clear-sky radiative forcing, the radiative response to warming, and hence climate sensitivity. Extending these concepts to include the effects of clouds leads to the expectation that (i) clouds dampen the clear-sky response to forcing; (ii) diminutive clouds near the surface, which are often thought to be unimportant, may be effective at enhancing the clear-sky sensitivity over deep moist tropical boundary layers; (iii) even small changes in high clouds over deep moist regions in the tropics make these regions radiatively more responsive to warming than previously believed; and (iv) spectral masking by clouds may contribute substantially to polar amplification. The analysis demonstrates that the net effect of clouds on warming is ambiguous, if not moderating, justifying the assertion that the clear-sky (fixed relative humidity) climate sensitivity – which, after accounting for surface albedo feedbacks, we estimate to be about 3 K – provides a reasonable prior for Bayesian updates accounting for how clouds are distributed, how they might change, and deviations associated with changes in relative humidity with temperature. These effects are best assessed by quantifying the distribution of clouds and water vapor and how they change in temperature rather than geographic space.