Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Index Research Articles

Regular widespread aggregations of the oceanic jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca in the northeast Atlantic over 11 years

The jellyfish Pelagia noctiluca form extensive aggregations in the Mediterranean Sea that can exert top-down control on prey and cause mass-mortalities in fish farms. The description of extensive aggregations of P. noctiluca in the northeast Atlantic in 2007 coupled with a subsequent mortality event of farmed salmon in Northern Ireland prompted further investigation of the species in this region. We collected standardised P. noctiluca biomass from 1938 fisheries trawls over 11 years (2008–2018) covering ∼200,000 km2 of northeast Atlantic shelf seas. While a linear trend in P. noctiluca was not identified, the mean annual biomass exhibited significant fluctuations, with particularly elevated levels in 2009, 2013, 2014 and 2016 (0.05, 0.02, 0.01 and 0.02 kg ha−1, respectively). Mean biomass was higher in the northern (0.028 kg ha−1) and western portions (0.005 kg ha−1) of the study area compared to the southwestern (0.003 kg ha−1) and southeastern portions (0.001 kg ha−1). A binomial generalised linear mixed model of P. noctiluca biomass data indicated that higher P. noctiluca occurrence was driven by a positive Eastern Atlantic Pattern index (strongest effect), south-easterly winds, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index and lower sea-surface temperatures (weakest effect). The fixed effects accounted for 36.81% of the variance in P. noctiluca occurrence data, while a random year effect further explained an additional 24.06% of the variance. These conditions may destabilise the European Slope Current in autumn-winter which promotes the transport of P. noctiluca from oceanic sources onto the northeast Atlantic shelf. Our findings represent a dramatic shift in our understanding of this species in the northeast Atlantic which may have significant ecological impacts, from predation on fish eggs and larvae to providing food for oceanic sunfish.

Construction of a deltaic strandplain during the Roman period in the Tavoliere di Puglia plain and palaeoclimatic implications

In response to the accidental exhumation of three ancient trees by farmers, we conducted a multidisciplinary study based on the stratigraphic analysis of boreholes, carbon-14 dating, aerial photo interpretation, and analysis of palaeobotanical and archaeological evidences. We reconstructed the formation and evolution during Roman times of a first “continuous” and then “discontinuous” deltaic strandplain at the mouth of the Carapelle Stream in the Tavoliere di Puglia Plain—the second-largest plain in Italy. Ttwo main phases can be recognised in the evolution of the Carapelle deltaic strandplain: 1) a first phase, lasted until ca. the birth of Christ, was characterised by a regular and continuous construction of sand ridges one leaning against the other; 2) a second phase, lasted more or less from the birth of Christ to the termination of the construction of the deltaic strandplain, was characterised by the discontinuous construction of sand ridges/coastal barriers with the isolation of lagoons/ponds, and by evidences of alluvial events. The most probable climatic–environmental scenario to have formed the Roman-period deltaic strandplain implied that: 1) the first phase was triggered by a higher total amount of precipitations, but with less extreme alluvial events; 2) the second phase was triggered by a total amount of precipitation lower than the previous period, but with higher occurrence of extreme alluvial events and/or by extreme alluvial events separated by longer period of low precipitations. This second phase was enhanced by the opening of vegetation. The passage between the first and second phase of the Carapelle deltaic strandplain coincides with the passage from overall negative NAO index to an overall positive NAO index.

The possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area, Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractWe investigated the possible links between the Barents–Kara sea‐ice area (SIA), Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in December–January (DJ) and February–March (FM) using the ERA5 data for the period December 1979–March 2022. The Barents–Kara SIA loss in December is correlated with an increase in geopotential height at 500 hPa (), mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP), and the frequency and intensity of blocking over the Ural in DJ. The Barents–Kara SIA loss in December is also associated with the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in FM (particularly in mid‐February) and the negative NAO index. However, our results show that persistent Ural blocking occurs during the transition from a neutral or positive NAO index to its negative phase. Indeed, a significant decrease in NAO index leads to the development of an area of instantaneous blocking (IB) and positive anomalies over the Ural. Persistent Ural blocking contributes significantly to Barents–Kara SIA loss, with a peak decline about seven days after the onset of Ural blocking. The onset of persistent Ural blocking also precedes the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by about one month. This implies that the negative correlation between the Barents–Kara SIA loss in December and the NAO index in FM might be caused by the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, which itself is induced by persistent Ural blocking. We conclude that the Barents–Kara SIA loss in December can be viewed as a sign rather than the cause of changes in atmospheric circulation over the high‐latitude North Atlantic in succeeding months, because the Barents–Kara SIA also largely responds to Ural blocking and the NAO.

Regional characteristics of cloudiness in Serbia during the period 1991–2017

AbstractMonthly climate data of days with clear and cloudy skies at 38 stations (1991–2017) and daily visual observations of total cloud amounts (TCA) available at six principal stations (1992–2017) were used to investigate regional, subregional, and temporal characteristics of cloudiness in Serbia. Annual, seasonal, and monthly means were used in the analysis. Results showed differences due to influences from topography, predominant synoptic situations, and possible teleconnection with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). According to our criteria, the annual number of cloudy‐sky days (~80–120) was higher than that of selected clear‐sky days (~50–90), except for 3 years of prevailing anticyclonic circulations. A maximum cloudiness frequency was in winter (December), while a minimum frequency was in summer (August). TCA variability was the highest in an area of complex orography. Southeast Serbia was characterized by the smallest daily temporal variation of TCA based on 7, 14, and 21 h observations as well as by a high number of clear‐sky days during all seasons, while the western mountainous part was much cloudier. From October to January, morning TCA was higher than afternoon TCA, ranging from 70% (January) to 78% (December). Statistically significant positive trends in the number of cloudy‐sky days were found for three stations. A statistically significant moderate positive/negative correlation coefficient was found between the monthly cumulative frequencies of clear‐sky/cloudy‐sky days and the NAO for the winter seasons, respectively. During the 18 winters with the negative NAO index (i.e., frequent westerly warm and moist advection), there were approximately six times more cloudy‐sky days (588) than clear‐sky days (88).

The multi-year comparisons of chlorophyll and sea ice in Greenland Sea and Barents Sea and their relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation

The Arctic Ocean (AO) has experienced very significant warming in recent decades with clear impacts on the extent and depth of sea ice cover. Sea ice serves as a primary habitat and plays an important role in the AO marine food web. The surface distributions of chlorophyll_a (CHL), sea ice concentration (ICE), sea surface temperature (SST) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed in the study region (20°W-50°E, 70°N-80°N) over the decade (2003–2014). This region spans the Barents Sea (BS), Norwegian (NS) and Greenland Sea (GS). In general, the peak of spatial averaged CHL in the BS was about 60% higher than the GS. Due to elevated SST in the southern BS, CHL was much higher especially in 2010 and 2013. In 2011, there was a strong meridional gradient in CHL decreasing from south to north of the BS, and also a strong zonal gradient from the southern GS to the southern BS. The northern GS had higher CHL than the southern GS due to the increased ice melting and nutrient-enriched runoff from east Greenland glaciers to the northern and western coastal regions of the GS. Seasonal peaks of spatially averaged CHL occurred in April or May and were about two weeks earlier in the BS than the GS. Higher ice melt in the northern BS was the main reason for CHL blooms especially in 2010 and 2011. Earlier and more extensive ice melting and a persistent negative NAO index causing atmospheric circulation patterns that favoured ice loss were the possible drivers of enhanced phytoplankton blooms in 2010. A previous negative winter NAO is thought to be linked to an increase in ICE in the following spring. NAO is mostly negative during spring in the GS. Sea ice melt was positively correlated with CHL in the northern sector of the study region.

Bivariate Modelling of a Teleconnection Index and Extreme Rainfall in a Small North Atlantic Island

This paper explores practical applications of bivariate modelling via copulas of two likely dependent random variables, i.e., of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) coupled with extreme rainfall on the small island of Madeira, Portugal. Madeira, due to its small size (∼740 km2), very pronounced mountain landscape, and location in the North Atlantic, experiences a wide range of rainfall regimes, or microclimates, which hamper the analyses of extreme rainfall. Previous studies showed that the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on extreme rainfall is at its largest in the North Atlantic sector, with the likelihood of increased rainfall events from December through February, particularly during negative NAO phases. Thus, a copula-based approach was adopted for teleconnection, aiming at assigning return periods of daily values of an NAO index (NAOI) coupled with extreme daily rainfalls—for the period from December 1967 to February 2017—at six representative rain gauges of the island. The results show that (i) bivariate copulas describing the dependence characteristics of the underlying joint distributions may provide useful analytical expressions of the return periods of the coupled previous NAOI and extreme rainfall and (ii) that recent years show signs of increasing climate variability with more anomalous daily negative NAOI along with higher extreme rainfall events. These findings highlight the importance of multivariate modelling for teleconnections of prominent patterns of climate variability, such as the NAO, to extreme rainfall in North Atlantic regions, especially in small islands that are highly vulnerable to the effects of abrupt climate variability.

Estimates of wind power and radiative near-inertial internal wave flux

Energy transfer mechanisms between the atmosphere and the deep ocean have been studied for many years. Their importance to the ocean’s energy balance and possible implications on mixing are widely accepted. The slab model by Pollard (Deep-Sea Res Oceanogr Abstr 17(4):795–812, 1970) is a well-established simulation of near-inertial motion and energy inferred through wind-ocean interaction. Such a model is set up with hourly wind forcing from the NCEP-CFSR reanalysis that allows computations up to high latitudes without loss of resonance. Augmenting the one-dimensional model with the horizontal divergence of the near-inertial current field leads to direct estimates of energy transfer spectra of internal wave radiation from the mixed layer base into the ocean interior. Calculations using this hybrid model are carried out for the North Atlantic during the years 1989 and 1996, which are associated with positive and negative North Atlantic Oscillation index, respectively. Results indicate a range of meridional regimes with distinct energy transfer ratios. These are interpreted in terms of the mixed layer depth, the buoyancy frequency at the mixed layer base, and the wind field structure. The average ratio of radiated energy fluxes from the mixed layer to near-inertial wind power for both years is approximately 12%. The dependence on the wind structure is supported by simulations of idealized wind stress fronts with variable width and translation speeds.

Mechanisms of Winter Precipitation Variability in the European–Mediterranean Region Associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractThe physical mechanisms whereby the mean and transient circulation anomalies associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drive winter mean precipitation anomalies across the North Atlantic Ocean, Europe, and the Mediterranean Sea region are investigated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis. A moisture budget decomposition is used to identify the contribution of the anomalies in evaporation, the mean flow, storm tracks and the role of moisture convergence and advection. Over the eastern North Atlantic, Europe, and the Mediterranean, precipitation anomalies are primarily driven by the mean flow anomalies with, for a positive NAO, anomalous moist advection causing enhanced precipitation in the northern British Isles and Scandinavia and anomalous mean flow moisture divergence causing drying over continental Europe and the Mediterranean region. Transient eddy moisture fluxes work primarily to oppose the anomalies in precipitation minus evaporation generated by the mean flow, but shifts in storm-track location and intensity help to explain regional details of the precipitation anomaly pattern. The extreme seasonal precipitation anomalies that occurred during the two winters with the most positive (1988/89) and negative (2009/10) NAO indices are also explained by NAO-associated mean flow moisture convergence anomalies.

Causes of non-stationary relationships between geomagnetic activity and the North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is known to be influenced by internal variability of the atmosphere and the ocean and respond to natural or anthropogenic external forcing. However, there is no consensus on the exact mechanisms. The NAO correlates with geomagnetic activity (considered as the parameter for the solar wind intensity) positively during one period (i.e. 1951–1996) but negatively in another period (i.e.1870–1950), making the Sun-climate connection a controversial subject. We try to explain this non-stationary relationship and to find the causes why the correlation had changed the sign during the past 148 years. At the times of low geomagnetic activity before 1950 and after 1997 the correlation between geomagnetic activity and the NAO was relatively weak. The variability of the NAO during those periods was mainly due to other processes. In order to answer the question why a more positive NAO phase has prevailed over the last 30 years of the past century, we study the geomagnetic signal near the surface conditioning upon the strength, shape and location of the stratospheric polar vortex and examine the immediate effect of geomagnetic storms in the troposphere. At times of prevailing high geomagnetic activity (1951–1996) the polar vortex strengthened. The effect of the solar wind was mainly over northern Europe in association with the positive phase of the NAO; a strengthened mid-latitude westerly jet kept the cold air in the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes became milder than average. When geomagnetic activity decreased, the stratospheric polar vortex also weakened. The solar wind signal prevailed over Canada in association with the negative NAO index and more of Arctic air was able to penetrate North America and Eurasia. We finally show that the geomagnetic storms may play a role in the acceleration of the downward penetration of pressure anomalies from the upper stratosphere into the troposphere.

Wavelet-based analysis of global index effects in air temperature and precipitation data of the Black Sea coast

AbstractThis study has been carried out to analyse the precipitation and air temperature data in the Black Sea region of Turkey to aid the understanding of the effects of global indices. Connections between the temperature or precipitation data and global atmospheric indices such as the North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were studied. Results of the cross-correlations between air temperature and the NCP/NAO showed a strong relationship, especially in the winter period. The seasonal and annual differences for the temperature and precipitation data during the negative and positive phases of the global indices were computed. According to this, the annual total precipitations are higher during the positive NCP index than the negative NCP index, while the annual total precipitations are higher during the negative NAO index than the positive NAO index. On the other hand, wavelet analysis showed that some short-term periodicities in precipitation and temperature data are connected with the NAO and the extreme phases of the SOI. The influence of the NCP should also be considered for the short-term periodicities of the temperatures.

Holocene Hydroclimate Variability in Central Scandinavia Inferred from Flood Layers in Contourite Drift Deposits in Lake Storsjön

Despite the societal importance of extreme hydroclimate events, few palaeoenvironmental studies of Scandinavian lake sediments have investigated flood occurrences. Here we present a flood history based on lithological, geochemical and mineral magnetic records of a Holocene sediment sequence collected from contourite drift deposits in Lake Storsjön (63.12° N, 14.37° E). After the last deglaciation, the lake began to form around 9800 cal yr BP, but glacial activity persisted in the catchment for ~250 years. Element concentrations and mineral magnetic properties of the sediments indicate relatively stable sedimentation conditions during the Holocene. However, human impact in the form of expanding agriculture is evident from about 1100 cal yr BP, and intensified in the 20th century. Black layers containing iron sulphide appear irregularly throughout the sequence. The increased influx of organic matter during flood events led to decomposition and oxygen consumption, and eventually to anoxic conditions in the interstitial water preserving these layers. Elevated frequencies of black layer occurrence between 3600 and 1800 cal yr BP reflect vegetation changes in the catchment as well as large-scale climatic change. Soil erosion during snowmelt flood events increased with a tree line descent since the onset of the neoglacial period (~4000 cal yr BP). The peak in black layer occurrence coincides with a prominent solar minimum ~2600 cal yr BP, which may have accentuated the observed pattern due to the prevalence of a negative NAO index, a longer snow accumulation period and consequently stronger snowmelt floods.

Late Holocene forest dynamics in the Gulf of Gaeta (central Mediterranean) in relation to NAO variability and human impact

A new high-resolution pollen record, spanning the last five millennia, is presented from the Gulf of Gaeta (Tyrrhenian Sea, central Italy), with the aim of verifying if any vegetation change occurred in the central Mediterranean region in relation to specific well-known global and/or regional climate events, including the 4.2 ka event, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), and to detect possible vegetation changes related to still under-investigated climate signals, for example the so-called “Bond 2” cold event around 2.8 ka BP. The vegetation dynamics of the Gaeta record shows a recurrent pattern of forest increase and decline punctuating the mid- and late Holocene. When the timing of these patterns is compared with the climate proxy data available from the same core (planktonic foraminifera assemblages and oxygen stable isotope record) and with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index, it clearly appears that the main driver for the forest fluctuations is climate, which may even overshadow the effects of human activity. We have found a clear correspondence between phases with negative NAO index and forest declines. In particular, around 4200 cal BP, a drop in AP (Arboreal Pollen) confirms the clearance recorded in many sites in Italy south of 43°N. Around 2800 cal BP, a vegetation change towards open conditions is found at a time when the NAO index clearly shows negative values. Between 800 and 1000 AD, a remarkable forest decline, coeval with a decrease in the frequencies of both Castanea and Olea, matches a shift in the oxygen isotope record towards positive values, indicating cooler temperatures, and a negative NAO. Between 1400–1850 AD, in the time period chronologically corresponding to the LIA (Little Ice Age), the Gaeta record shows a clear decline of the forest cover, particularly evident after 1550 AD, once again in correspondence with negative NAO index.

Winter precipitation changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age in arid Central Asia

The strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the main driver of climate changes over the European and western Asian continents throughout the last millennium. For example, the predominantly warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the following cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over Europe have been associated with long-lasting phases with a positive and negative NAO index. Its climatic imprint is especially pronounced in European winter seasons. However, little is known about the influence of NAO with respect to its eastern extent over the Eurasian continent.Here we present speleothem records (δ13C, δ18O and Sr/Ca) from the southern rim of Fergana Basin (Central Asia) revealing annually resolved past climate variations during the last millennium. The age control of the stalagmite relies on radiocarbon dating as large amounts of detrital material inhibit accurate 230Th dating. Present-day calcification of the stalagmite is most effective during spring when the cave atmosphere and elevated water supply by snow melting and high amount of spring precipitation provide optimal conditions. Seasonal precipitation variations cause changes of the stable isotope and Sr/Ca compositions. The simultaneous changes in these geochemical proxies, however, give also evidence for fractionation processes in the cave. By disentangling both processes, we demonstrate that the amount of winter precipitation during the MCA was generally higher than during the LIA, which is in line with climatic changes linked to the NAO index but opposite to the higher mountain records of Central Asia. Several events of strongly reduced winter precipitation are observed during the LIA in Central Asia. These dry winter events can be related to phases of a strong negative NAO index and all results reveal that winter precipitation over the central Eurasian continent is tightly linked to atmospheric NAO modes by the westerly wind systems.

Seasonal variations in C:N:Si:Ca:P:Mg:S:K:Fe relationships of seston from Norwegian coastal water: Impact of extreme offshore forcing during winter-spring 2010.

The aim of this study was to reveal the relative content of C, N, Ca, Si, P, Mg, K, S and Fe in seston particles in Norwegian coastal water (NCW), and how it relates to biological and hydrographic processes during seasonal cycles from October 2009–March 2012. The following over all stoichiometric relationship for the time series was obtained: C66N11Si3.4Ca2.3P1Mg0.73S0.37K0.35Fe0.30, which is novel for marine waters. A record-breaking (187-year record) negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index caused extreme physical forcing on the Norwegian Coastal Current Water (NCCW) during the winter 2009–2010, and the inflow and upwelling of saline Atlantic water (AW) in the fjord was thus extraordinary during late spring-early summer in 2010. The element concentrations in fjord seston particles responded strongly to this convection, revealed by maximum values of all elements, except Fe, exceeding average values with 10.8 × for Ca, 9.3 for K, 5.3 for S, 5.1 for Mg, 4.6 for Si, 4.0 for P, 3.8 for C, and 3.3 for N and Fe. This indicates that the signature of the Atlantic inflow was roughly two times stronger for Ca and K than for the others, probably connected with peaks in coccolithophorids and diatoms. There is, however, 1.5 × more of Si than Ca contained in the seston, which could be due to a stronger dominance of diatoms than coccolithophorids, confirming their environmental fitness. In total our data do not indicate any severe nutrient limitation with respect to N, P and Fe, but accumulation of iron by Fe-sequestering bacteria might at times reduce the availability of the dissolved Fe-fraction. There is a high correlation between most of the measured elements, except for Ca, which together with Fe only weakly correlated with the other elements. It is to be expected that environmental alterations in NCW related to climate change will influence the seston elemental composition, but the full effect of this will be strongly dependent on the future dominance of the high pressure versus low pressure systems (i.e. NAO index), since they are key regulators for the direction of wind driven vertical convection (i.e. upwelling or downwelling). Changes in stratification, temperature, light, pH (ocean acidification), CaCO3 concentrations (carbon pump) and availability of nutrients in the euphotic zone (biogeochemical cycling) are essential for the future dominance of coccolithophorids versus diatoms.

Why do summer droughts in the Southern Great Plains occur in some La Niña years but not others?

AbstractDroughts in the Southern Great Plains (SGP) have been attributed to the cold phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation or La Niña. While La Niña events have been clearly linked to winter droughts, their link to summer droughts has remained unclear. We analyze the difference in precipitation between dry and nondry summers over the SGP during La Niña years. Anomalously high geopotential height and subsidence over the SGP occur in spring, along with an intensified northward moisture flux that advects moisture away to the northern plains and Midwest. The dependence of SGP drought on La Niña is statistically significant only in winter and becomes insignificant in spring and summer. The drought development in La Niña years is related to an anomalous warming over the tropical North Atlantic in spring and an anomalous negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in summer, both of which suppress precipitation by strengthening the anomalous high over the SGP and displacing the subtropical jet streams. In years with relatively large precipitation anomalies (i.e., the 27% driest and wettest La Niña years over the SGP), up to 45% of the variances of summer precipitation can be explained by a linear combination of the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (SST), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), tropical North Atlantic SST, and NAO indices. An anomalously strong dry summer appears to be largely a result of a superposition of these factors.

Windiness spells in SW Europe since the last glacial maximum

Dunefields have a great potential to unravel past regimes of atmospheric circulation as they record direct traces of this component of the climate system. Along the Portuguese coast, transgressive dunefields represent relict features originated by intense and frequent westerly winds that largely contrast with present conditions, clearly dominated by weaker northwesterly winds. Optical dating and subsurface stratigraphy document three age clusters indicating main episodes of dune mobilization during: the last termination (20–11.6 ka), Middle Holocene (5.6 ka), and Late Holocene (1.2–0.98 and 0.4–0.15 ka).We find reconstructed windfields to be analogous during all episodes and dominated by strong westerlies. Yet, larger grain size diameters and dune volumes documented for the last termination support amplified patterns compatible with a southward shift and intensification of the North Atlantic westerlies during winters. Conversely, dunes deposited after the Middle Holocene are compatible with more variable windfields and weakened patterns controlled by interannual shifts towards low values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).This work demonstrates that present windfield regimes in southern Europe are not compatible with past aeolian activity. Indeed, present day analogs indicate that wind intensities compatible with past aeolian activity are rare at present (sediment transport potentials below estimates in the aeolian record), but can occur if the jet stream is diverted to the south (i.e. 30°N with negative NAO index) or if very deep cyclones anchor around 50°N, extending their influence to the western Portuguese coast (relatively low NAO index). However, these conditions represent temporary patterns lasting around one day, while we suggest that the identified episodes of aeolian activity may represent semi-permanent conditions.

A review of oceanographic and meteorological controls on the North Sea circulation and hydrodynamics with a view to the fate of North Sea methane from well site 22/4b and other seabed sources

The North Sea hydrodynamics are key to the redistribution of methane released at the 22/4b Site, located at (57°55′N, 1°38′E) in the UK Central North Sea, 200 km east of the Scottish mainland. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on the North Sea circulation, stratification, and variability therein and briefly discusses the potential consequences for the distribution and fate of methane released from site 22/4b or other seabed sources.Astronomical tidal waves follow a counter-clockwise path and tide-topography interaction generates a residual circulation in the same direction. Wind-stress forcing can enhance, reduce, or even reverse this circulation. Variations in the strength of the Fair Isle Current (FIC) are important. The FIC enters the North Sea between The Orkneys and Shetland, follows approximately the 100-m isobath, passes along site 22/4b, and ends up in the Norwegian Trench. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also causes variability. A positive (negative) NAO index is associated with stronger (weaker) than normal westerly winds. NAO + situations strengthen the circulation in the North Sea, whereas it weakens during NAO- conditions and is directed northeastward. High positive correlations exist between the SST at site 22/4b and the NAO index. Climate change can have a long-term effect on the hydrodynamics of the North Sea.Seasonal stratification has potentially the most important imprint on methane derived from the well 22/4b Site. Summertime heating stratifies the northern part of the North Sea. In autumn, loss of heat to the atmosphere causes the stratification to breakdown until tides and storms mix the entire water column. During the period of stratification, the bulk of (dissolved) methane released from site 22/4b gets trapped below the thermocline. The loss of methane to the atmosphere thus becomes a function of the relative time scales of transport and horizontal and vertical mixing processes versus the time scale of microbial degradation (oxidation) in the water column.

A switch in the Atlantic Oscillation correlates with inter-annual changes in foraging location and food habits of Macaronesian shearwaters (Puffinus baroli) nesting on two islands of the sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean

Changes in oceanographic conditions, shaped by changes in large-scale atmospheric phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. Such signals are readily captured by marine top predators, given that their use of foraging habitats and diets change when the NAO changes. In this study we assessed sexual, seasonal and annual (2010/11–2012/13) differences in diet, trophic and isotopic niche (using δ15N and δ13C values of whole blood, 1st primary, 8th secondary and breast feathers), foraging locations and oceanographic variation within foraging areas for Macaronesian shearwaters' (Puffinus baroli) during two years of contrasting NAO values, and between two sub-tropical islands 330km apart in the North Atlantic Ocean, Cima Islet and Selvagem Grande. These two locations provide contrasting oceanographic foraging regimes for the birds, because the second colony is much closer to the African coast (375 vs 650km), and, therefore, to the upwelling area of the Canary Current. There was a marked environmental perturbation in 2010/2011, related with a negative NAO Index and lower marine productivity (lower concentration of Chlorophyll a). This event corresponded to the Macaronesian shearwaters feeding farther north and west, which was readily seen in change of both δ15N and δ13C values, and in a higher intake of cephalopods. Diet and stable isotopes did not differ between sexes. Regurgitation analysis indicate a dominance of cephalopods in both islands, but prey fish were important for Selvagem Grande in 2012 and cephalopods for Cima Islet in 2011. Both δ15N and δ13C values were significantly higher for Cima Islet than for Selvagem Grande, irrespective of year, season and tissue sampled. SIBER analysis showed smaller isotopic niches for the breeding period. Our study suggests that during years of poor environmental conditions Macaronesian shearwaters shift their foraging location to more pelagic waters, take more cephalopods and overall present a narrower isotopic niche.

Long-term changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme storm surge events in southern Europe

for the 50-year return level are also estimated, showing a large spatial variability with relatively higher values along the coast. A clear sensitivity of extreme storm surges to negative NAO index is detected, specifically in the west - ern Mediterranean basin. Results show that negative NAO phases lead to an increase in the number of extreme events and also in their intensity. Abstract Storm surges are one of the major hazards in coastal regions; positive surge events are added to tidal lev- els, increasing the risk of coastal flooding by extreme water levels. In this study, changes in the frequency (occurrence rate per year), intensity (magnitude of the extremes) and duration of extreme storm surge events from 1948 to 2013 are investigated using a non-stationary statistical model. To fully model extremes, the time-dependent statistical model combines the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for studying exceedances over the threshold, and the non- homogeneous Poisson (P) process for studying the occur- rence rate of these exceedances. Long-term trends and the association between storm surges and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are represented in the model by allow- ing the parameters in the GPD-P model to be time-depend- ent. Different spatial patterns in the three analysed proper- ties of storm surges are found in the Atlantic region and the Mediterranean Sea. The up to now uncharted regional patterns of storm surge duration show completely different values between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean regions, being the duration of storms surges in the Atlantic two times longer than the duration in the Mediterranean. For the last half century, we detect positive and negative spa- tial trends in terms of intensity of storm surge but only sig- nificant decreasing rates, of around 2 %, in the number of extreme events per year. Regarding duration, we find posi - tive trends in certain Mediterranean areas, with durations of extreme events increasing at a rate of 0.5-1.5 h/year. Values

Seasonality and interannual variability of the European Slope Current from 20 years of altimeter data compared with in situ measurements

The European Slope Current (SC) is a major section of the warm poleward flow from the Atlantic to the Arctic, which also moderates the exchange of heat, salt, nutrients and carbon between the deep ocean and the European shelf seas. The mean structure of the geostrophic flow, seasonality, interannual variability and long-term trend of SC are appraised with an unprecedented continuous 20-year satellite altimeter dataset. Comparisons with long term in situ data showed a maximum correlation of r2=0.51 between altimeter and Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), with similar results for drogued buoy data. Mean geostrophic currents were appraised more comprehensively than previous attempts, and the paths of 4 branches of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and positions of 5 eddies in the region were derived quantitatively. A consistent seasonal cycle in the flow of the SC was found at all 8 sections along the European shelf slope, with maximum poleward flow in the winter and minimum in the summer. The seasonal difference in the altimetry current speed amounted to ~8–10cms−1 at the northern sections, but only ~5cms−1 on the Bay of Biscay slopes. This extended altimeter dataset indicates significant regional and seasonal variations, and has revealed new insights into the interannual variability of the SC. It is shown that there is a peak poleward flow at most positions along a ~2000km stretch of the continental slope from Portugal to Scotland during 1995–1997, but this did not clearly relate to the extreme negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the winter of 1995–1996. The speed of the SC exhibited a long term decreasing trend of ~1% per year. By contrast the NAC showed no significant trend over the 20-year period. Major changes in the NAC occurred three times, and these changes followed decreases in the NAO index.