Negative Glacier Mass Balance Research Articles

Mass Balance of Maritime Glaciers in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau during Recent Decades

Maritime glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) are particularly sensitive to changes in climate, and their changes directly and severely affect regional water security and glacier-related hazards. Given their large societal importance, a better understanding of the mass balance of maritime glaciers in the SETP, a key variable for characterizing the state of glacier health, is of great scientific interest. In this review, we synthesize in situ, satellite-based observations and simulations that present an overall accelerating negative mass balance of maritime glaciers in the SETP in recent decades. We hereby highlight a significant spatiotemporal difference in the mass balance of maritime glaciers across the SETP and investigate the drivers of the accelerated mass loss of these glaciers in recent years. We find that accelerated glacier mass loss agrees with the variabilities in temperatures rising and precipitation decreasing at regional scales, as well as the spatial patterns of widespread melt hotspots (e.g., thin debris, ice cliffs, supraglacial ponds, and surface streams), the expansion of glacial lakes, enlarged ice crevasses, and frequent ice avalanches. Finally, the challenges of the mass balance study of maritime glaciers and future perspectives are proposed. Our review confirms the urgent need to improve the existing glacier inventory and establish comprehensive monitoring networks in data-scarce glacierized catchments, and it suggests paying particular attention to the development of glacier mass-balance models that coupe multiple physical processes at different interfaces to predict the status of maritime glaciers and their responses to climate change. This study can inform the sustainable management of water resources and the assessment of socio-economic vulnerability due to glacier-related hazards in the SETP and its surroundings in the context of marked atmospheric warming.

The Late Holocene deglaciation of James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula: OSL and 14C-dated multi-proxy sedimentary record from Monolith Lake

Lentic waterbodies provide terrestrial sedimentary archives of palaeoenvironmental change in deglaciated areas of the Antarctic. Knowledge of the long-term evolution of Antarctic palaeoenvironments affords important context to the current marked impacts of climate change in the Polar regions. Here, we present a comprehensively dated, multi-proxy sedimentary record from Monolith Lake, a distal proglacial lake in one of the largest ice-free areas of the Antarctic Peninsula region. Of the two defined sedimentary units in the cores studied, the lower Unit 1 exhibits a homogeneous composition and unvarying proxy data profiles, suggesting rapid clastic deposition under uniform, ice-proximal conditions with a sedimentation rate of ∼1 mm yr−1. 14C and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating bracket the deposition interval to 1.5–2.5 ka BP, with the older age being more probable when compared to independent dating of the local deglaciation. The uppermost 11 cm of the record spans the last ∼2.2 ka BP (maximum age), suggesting a markedly decreased sedimentation rate of ∼0.05 mm yr−1 within Unit 2. Whereas Unit 1 shows only scarce evidence of biological activity, Unit 2 provides an uninterrupted record of diatoms (with 29 species recorded) and faunal subfossils, including the fairy shrimp Branchinecta gaini. Concentrations of organically-derived elements, as well as diatoms and faunal remains, are consistent, implying a gradual increase in lake productivity. These results provide an example of long-term Antarctic ‘greening’ (i.e. increasing organic productivity in terrestrial habitats) from a palaeolimnological perspective. The boundary between Units 1 and 2, therefore, marks the timing of local deglaciation at the final stages of a period of negative glacier mass balance, i.e. the Mid-Late Holocene Hypsithermal. Subsequent Neoglacial cooling is evidenced by the abated influence of glacial meltwater streams and turbidity decline linked to reduced glacier runoff, although most proxy responses mirror the natural proglacial lake ontogeny.

Brief communication: The Glacier Loss Day as an indicator of a record-breaking negative glacier mass balance in 2022

Abstract. In the hydrological year 2021/2022, Alpine glaciers showed unprecedented mass loss. On Hintereisferner (Ötztal Alps, Austria), the glacier-wide mass balance was −3319 kg m−2. Near-daily observations of the surface elevation changes from a permanent terrestrial laser scanning set-up allowed the determination of the day when the mass balance of Hintereisferner started to become negative. This Glacier Loss Day (GLD) was already reached on 23 June in 2022 and gave way to a long ice ablation period. In 2021/2022, this and the high cumulative positive degree days explain the record-breaking mass loss. By comparing the GLDs of 2019/2020–2021/2022, we found a gross yet expressive indicator of the glacier's imbalance with the persistently warming climate.

Provenance and transport of supraglacial debris revealed by variations in debris geochemistry on Khumbu Glacier, Nepal Himalaya

AbstractThe origin of supraglacial debris covers is often conceptualised as the formation of a surface lag by melt‐out of englacial debris from slow‐moving ice, where complexity arises from feedback between debris thickness and sub‐debris ice melt. Here, we examine the origin of a debris cover from the perspective of debris provenance and changing tributary supply in a high‐elevation compound valley glacier. Geochemical analysis of 11 major elements in 21 debris samples from six tributaries of Khumbu Glacier (Nepal) shows unambiguous statistical differentiation of debris sources reflecting lithological differences between tributary catchments. Twenty‐four samples from transects across the ablation area are partitioned according to their source areas using the FR2000 sediment unmixing model. We estimate the age of ice at each transect using a higher order ice flow model. The results show greater proportions of debris from lateral tributaries in downglacier locations that have experienced longer flowline histories. More recently, ice from the Main Himalayan Divide (Western Cwm) has become relatively more important. This suggests a change in the state of the lower glacier's structure depending on the relative ice discharges of lateral and divide sources. Ice flux from lower elevation tributaries was more important probably prior to a weakening of the Indian Summer Monsoon at around 1420 CE. The lower elevation tributaries lie within the range of late Holocene equilibrium line altitude variation and therefore respond most sensitively to climatic drivers of the glacier's flow structure. Negative glacier mass balance since around 1900 CE caused tributary glaciers to detach and high‐elevation catchments to re‐establish as the dominant ice source to Khumbu Glacier.

Accelerated multiphase water transformation in global mountain regions since 1990

<p>Mountains are sensitive to climate change, and while amplified warming at high elevations is widely observed and fairly well understood, changes in the water cycles of mountain regions remain poorly quantified. Due to low temperatures at higher elevations, these changes involve multiphase water transformation (MWT). Through analyzing extensive data from global mountain regions, we determined that under the accelerating warming and lengthening ablation period since the 1990s, the strengthening solid�Cliquid transformation can be confirmed for 45 glacier basins or single glaciers. This is marked by an increase of 21.5 km<sup>2</sup>/10a in glacier area retreat rate, 387.65 mm for average negative glacier mass balance, and 60 m/10a for average glacier length retreat rate (of 414 glaciers) from the study period before the 1990s until the period after the 1990s. The accelerating liquid�Csolid transformation was indicated by an increase of 31.2 d/10a for the delaying trend of complete freeze time, an increase of 4.3 d/10a for the advancing trend of complete melting time, and an increase of 3.9 d/10a for the decreasing trend of ice cover duration for 22 lakes from the period before the 1990s until the period after the 1990s. The accelerating liquid�Cgas transformation can be confirmed by an increase of 1 and 0.69 mm/d/10a in the variation trend of actual evaporation and bare-soil evaporation from 1980�C1990 to 1990�C2017, respectively. Snow sublimation decreased by 0.69 mm/d/10a during 1980�C1990, followed by a statistically significant increase of 1.66 mm/d/10a during 1990�C2017, further confirming the accelerating solid�Cgas transformation. The accelerating gas�Csolid transformation can be reflected by an increase of 0.3 d/10a for the decreasing trend of frost days from 1960�C1990 to 1990�C2017. The moisture recycling ratio decreased by �C0.042 %/10a during 1980�C1990 and then increased by 0.443 %/10a during 1990�C2017, with the corresponding average values of 12.3% and 13.6%, respectively, which indicates an accelerating gas�Cliquid transformation. Approximately 59 rivers displayed an increase of 108.60 m<sup>3</sup>/s/10a for the runoff variation trend from the period before the 1990s until the period after the 1990s. In addition, the trends for lake number and lake area in the Tibetan Plateau increased 3.86 and 5.75 times, respectively, from 1976�C1995 to 1995�C2019. This acceleration can significantly change the spatiotemporal pattern of water resources and increase the frequency and intensity of disaster events, such as glacial lake outbursts, flooding, and waterlogging. Consequently, most mountain regions will require strong adaptation efforts to sustain water, food, and ecological security.</p>

Recent Evolution of Glaciers in the Manaslu Region of Nepal From Satellite Imagery and UAV Data (1970–2019)

Glacierized mountain ranges such as the Himalaya comprise a variety of glacier types, including clean and debris-covered glaciers. Monitoring their behaviour over time requires an assessment of changes in area and elevation along with surface features and geomorphology. In this paper we quantify the surface evolution of glacier systems in the Manaslu region of Nepal over the last five decades using 2013/2019 multi-sensor imagery and elevation data constructed from 1970 declassified Corona imagery and 1970 declassified Corona imagery. We investigate area changes, glacier thickness, geodetic glacier mass balance and surface velocity changes at regional scales and focus on the Ponkar Glacier and Thulagi Glacier and Lake for an in-depth assessment of surface geomorphology and surface feature dynamics (ponds, vegetation and ice cliffs). The time series of surface elevation changes for the lower ablation area of Ponkar Glacier is extended using 2019 UAV-based imagery and field-based ablation rates measured over the period 2016–2019. Glaciers in the Manaslu region experienced a mean area loss of −0.26 ± 0.0001% a−1 between 1970 and 2019. The mean surface lowering was −0.20 ± 0.02 ma−1 over the period 1970 to 2013, corresponding to a regional geodetic mass balance of −0.17 ± 0.03 m w. e.a−1. Overall, debris-covered glaciers had slightly higher thinning rates compared to clean ice glaciers; lake-terminating glaciers had double thinning rates compared to land-terminating glaciers. Individual glacier mass balance was negatively controlled by glacier slope and mean glacier elevation. During the period 1970 to 2013, Ponkar Glacier had a geodetic mass balance of −0.06 ± 0.01 m w. e.a−1, inversely correlated with parts of the central trunk thickening. Between 2013 and 2019 there was a nine-fold increase in the thinning rates over the lower parts of the glacier tongue relative to the period 1970–2013. Ice-surface morphology changes between 1970 and 2019 on Ponkar Glacier include a decrease in ogives and open crevasses, an increase in ice cliffs and ponds and the expansion of the supraglacial debris and ice-surface vegetation. These changes point to reduced ice-dynamic activity and are commensurate with the observed recession and negative glacier mass balance over the last five decades.

Variations in Glacier Runoff Contributed by the Increased Negative Mass Balance over the Last Forty Years in the Tien Shan Mountains

In the context of global warming, the melting of glaciers in the Tien Shan Mountains as the important “solid reservoir” in the arid area of Central Asia is accelerating in recent decades, leading to profound changes in regional water resources. Based on the simulated glaciological data from the Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM) and the measured glaciological data from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS), this paper analyzed the applicability of simulated data, the changes in glacier mass balance, and the responses of the glacier to climate change and its impacts on glacier runoff in the Tien Shan Mountains. The results show that (1) the PyGEM simulation dataset is in good agreement with the measurements, which can effectively reproduce the change in the glacier mass balance in the Tien Shan Mountains glaciers and is suitable for studying the regional scale glacier change. (2) From 1980 to 2016, the decadal average mass balance change rate of glaciers in the Tien Shan Mountains was −0.012 m w.e. yr−1. The regional mass balance showed an overall negative increasing trend (the area with increasingly negative accounted for 80.13% of the entire area), with a positive increase that only occurred in the West Tien Shan Mountains and western North Tien Shan Mountains (19.87%). (3) The correlation between the temperature and mass balance is much higher than that between the precipitation and mass balance. Temperature dominates the change and development of regional glaciers. The increase in negative glacier mass balance that was observed in the study area is mainly affected by the rising temperature, the decreasing solid precipitation in the accumulation period, and the rapid melting in the ablation period. (4) The glacier runoff in the six representative rivers showed an increasing trend. The contribution rate of glacier runoff to river runoff changed significantly after 2000 but differed among rivers. Overall, the larger the glacier area in the source region is, the greater the contribution rate of glacier runoff is, and the more the contribution rate continuously increases or fluctuates; otherwise, the contribution rate keeps declining, which means the runoff peak may have passed and future runoff may decrease.

De-icing landsystem model for the Universidad Glacier (34° S) in the Central Andes of Chile during the past ~660 years

Reconstructing latest Holocene (<1000 years) glacial landscape development in the Central Andes of Chile (30–35° S) is key for understanding the response of the cryosphere during periods of negative glacier mass balance, such as the current one. The excellently preserved glacial landscape produced during the latest ice advance and retreat cycle is of particular interest for examining the detailed response of glaciers to deglaciation. To establish a conceptual model of glacier behavior under warm and dry climatic conditions, we reconstructed and dated the recent glacial history of the Universidad Glacier (34° S) through detailed geomorphological mapping and 10Be cosmogenic surface exposure dating. Our mapping describes a landsystem that spans from the current ice front to ~3 km down-valley, where a mosaic of glacial landforms includes mounded relief; sinkholes; debris-filled stripes; moraine belts; flutings; and a prominent basal till plain. Our 10Be ages suggest that the Universidad Glacier has fluctuated in its forefield since the 13th – 15th centuries CE. We propose that the glacier evolved from a clean glacier to a debris-covered glacier, to an ice-cored moraine, and finally, to a massive dead-ice topography. This deglacial evolution intermittent and potentially reset by multiple standstills and/or re-advances during the overall retreat. The implication is that phases of active ice were followed by stagnation associated with progressive melting of dead ice under the supraglacial debris layer. Similar geomorphic features and processes are recorded in the present-day Universidad Glacier ablation zone, denoting a recurrent reconditioning over time analogous to the glacier's evolution during the latest Holocene.

Heinrich Stadial aridity forced Mediterranean-wide glacier retreat in the last cold stage

Throughout the last cold stage, the North Atlantic region was punctuated by abrupt climate shifts and atmospheric processes propagated their effects to adjacent continents. During Heinrich Stadials, the ocean was chilled by icebergs calved from the great ice sheets. The impact of multiple temperature and precipitation regime changes on Late Pleistocene mountain glaciers and landscape development is poorly understood. Here we analyse 1,118 cosmogenic exposure ages—spanning the last 100,000 years—from glacial landforms on three continents across the Mediterranean. We evaluate their geomorphological context and stratify the record by depositional setting and geographical region. The database includes 300 dated moraines. We show that, despite cold temperatures, Heinrich Stadial aridity caused negative glacier mass balance and repeatedly stalled glacier growth across the Mediterranean. In contrast, relatively warm and humid climates between Heinrich Stadials favoured positive glacier mass balance, resulting in region-wide glacier growth and moraine formation. Our analysis supports climate model simulations of repeated and widespread Heinrich Stadial aridity in the Mediterranean basin during the last cold stage. Heinrich Stadials also saw enhanced supply of coarse debris from valley sides. The cumulative geomorphological impact of these climate shifts saw the largest moraines form at the culmination of the glacial cycle. Mountain glacier growth around the Mediterranean repeatedly stalled during cold, dry Heinrich Stadials, according to an analysis of cosmogenic isotope-dated glacial landforms from across the region.

Surging Dynamics of Glaciers in the Hunza Valley under an Equilibrium Mass State since 1990

Previous studies have shown that glacier changes were heterogeneous in the western Karakoram, with the coexistence of retreating, advancing, and surging glaciers. However, it remains unclear that the mechanisms driving these changes. Based on the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) DEM and TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X images (2014), this study presents glacier surface height changes in the Hunza Basin of the western Karakoram, employing the method of differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR). A slight negative glacier mass balance was observed in the Hunza Basin during 2000–2014. Surge-type glaciers would not have an obvious effect on overall mass balance in regional assessments over long-time scales. Further, glacier surface velocities in the Hunza Basin were estimated from Landsat images for the period of 1990–2018 by utilizing published data sets and Landsat images. Compared to the annual glacier surface velocities, 22 surge events were observed in seven surge-type glaciers in the Hunza Basin. Glacier flow can be attributed to thermally and hydrologically control, and the geomorphological characteristics of different individuals. This study gives us a new insight into the situation of the “Karakoram anomaly” under the background of glacier mass loss in the high mountains of Asia (HMA).

Mass balance of Muji Glacier, northeastern Pamir, and its controlling climate factors

The lack of glacier mass balance and meteorological data limit our knowledge of the spatial pattern of glacier changes in the Pamir. Based on meteorological measurements and mass balance records for Muji Glacier in the northeastern Pamir during 2011–2017, the temporal variations in energy and mass balance, and the response of mass balance to climate variations, were investigated using the energy-mass balance model. The model was assessed by the measurements of seasonal mass balance and snow thickness at different altitudes and seasonal glacier-wide mass balance. Results reveal that glacier-wide mass balance was slightly negative (mean: −276 mm w.e. yr−1) on Muji Glacier which could readily reach a zero mass balance under the present climatic conditions. In addition, a method is proposed for assessing whether melt-season air temperature (Ta) or precipitation (P) is more important for controlling interannual variability of glacier mass balance on the Tibetan Plateau, based on limited observations. This method is based on sensitivity analysis and the interannual variability of Ta and P, and shows that P (particularly P in the melt season) is a stronger control than Ta on interannual changes in mass balance variations of Muji Glacier, through the influence of P on albedo, melt energy and snow accumulation. In addition, a comparative analysis shows that smaller snowfall (resulting from lower P) and larger melt (linked to higher incoming longwave radiation and Ta) cause the more negative glacier mass balance in the northeastern Pamir than in the western Kunlun mountains.

60 Years of Glacier Elevation and Mass Changes in the Maipo River Basin, Central Andes of Chile

Glaciers in the central Andes of Chile are fundamental freshwater sources for ecosystems and communities. Overall, glaciers in this region have shown continuous recession and down-wasting, but long-term glacier mass balance studies providing precise estimates of these changes are scarce. Here, we present the first long-term (1955–2013/2015), region-specific glacier elevation and mass change estimates for the Maipo River Basin, from which the densely populated metropolitan region of Chile obtains most of its freshwater supply. We calculated glacier elevation and mass changes using historical topographic maps, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurements (TanDEM-X), and airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) digital elevation models. The results indicated a mean regional glacier mass balance of −0.12 ± 0.06 m w.e.a−1, with a total mass loss of 2.43 ± 0.26 Gt for the Maipo River Basin between 1955–2013. The most negative glacier mass balance was the Olivares sub-basin, with a mean value of −0.29 ± 0.07 m w.e.a−1. We observed spatially heterogeneous glacier elevation and mass changes between 1955 and 2000, and more negative values between 2000 and 2013, with an acceleration in ice thinning rates starting in 2010, which coincides with the severe drought. Our results provide key information to improve glaciological and hydrological projections in a region where water resources are under pressure.

Which heterogeneous glacier melting patterns can be robustly observed from space? A multi-scale assessment in southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Region-wide investigation of glacier change in High Mountain Asia marked the strongest recession in southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) in recent decades. However, evident differences of quantitative glacier mass balance (MB) estimations on fine scales exist in the prior reports. The large uncertainties in current geodetic observations over this region highlight the need for more independent validations and investigations on the spatial variability of glacier change. This study enriched glacier MB estimates over the SETP by using the newly released global Digital Elevation Model (DEM) - the TanDEM-X and analyzed the spatial pattern of glacier change on multi-spatial scales by comparing available satellite-based geodetic observations. Results reveal that the TanDEM-X - SRTM elevation differences, which show no obvious horizontal shifts and no significant elevation-dependent bias, provide reliable elevation change information over this challenging area. On the regional scale, the geodetic datasets (the ASTER elevation change rates data, TanDEM-X- SRTM differences, ICESat) achieved a highly consistent estimate of glacier MB at −4.11 ± 1.52 Gt a−1 (−0.60 ± 0.16 m w.e. a−1) during 2000 and 2010s. On the subregional scale, the two gridded geodetic datasets revealed a clear contrast between moderate thinning of spring-accumulation type glaciers in the south and significantly more negative glacier MB of summer-accumulation type glaciers in the north. Glacier-wide MB showed high heterogeneity, which was closely related to the combined effect of topographic variation and climate forcings. We observed similar glacier thinning rates between debris-covered land-terminating glaciers and clean-ice glaciers (−0.50 ± 0.32 m w.e. a−1) but remarkable more negative MB (−0.89 ± 0.36 m w.e. a−1) of debris-covered glaciers connected with glacial lakes, which may indicate different evolution process of debris-covered glaciers in the monsoon-influenced region. This study demonstrates that current satellite-based geodetic observations achieve overall consistent patterns of glacier mass changes even over the most challenging mountainous areas (complicated terrain and climate). With the global TanDEM-X DEM and increasing observations from the mission, we expect improved consistency in glacier MB estimation on large spatial scales as well as detailed investigation of glacier mass change variability in the future.

A Systematic, Regional Assessment of High Mountain Asia Glacier Mass Balance

High-mountain Asia (HMA) constitutes the largest glacierized region outside of the Earth's polar regions. Although available observations are limited, long-term records indicate sustained HMA glacier mass loss since ~1850, with accelerated loss in recent decades. Recent satellite data capture the spatial variability of this mass loss, but spatial resolution is coarse and some estimates for regional and HMA-wide mass loss disagree. To address these issues, we generated 5797 high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from available sub-meter commercial stereo imagery (DigitalGlobe WorldView-1/2/3 and GeoEye-1) acquired over HMA glaciers from 2007–2018 (primarily 2013–2017). We also reprocessed 28278 ASTER DEMs over HMA from 2000–2018. We combined these observations to generate robust elevation change trend maps and geodetic mass balance estimates for 99% of HMA glaciers between 2000 and 2018. We estimate total HMA glacier mass change of -19.0±2.5 Gt yr-1 (-0.19±0.03 m w.e. yr-1). We document the spatial pattern of HMA glacier mass change with unprecedented detail, and present aggregated estimates for HMA glacierized sub-regions and hydrologic basins. Our results offer improved estimates for the HMA contribution to global sea level rise in recent decades with total cumulative sea-level rise contribution of ~0.7 mm from exorheic basins between 2000 and 2018. We estimate that the range of excess glacier meltwater runoff due to negative glacier mass balance in each basin constitutes ~12-53% of the total basin-specific glacier meltwater runoff. These results can be used for calibration and validation of glacier mass balance models, satellite gravimetry observations, and hydrologic models needed for present and future water resource management.

Development of proglacial lakes and evaluation of related outburst susceptibility at the Adygine ice-debris complex, northern Tien Shan

Abstract. The formation and development of glacial lakes in mountainous regions is one of the consequences of glacier recession. Such lakes may drain partially or completely when the stability of their dams is disturbed or as a consequence of impacts. We present a case study from the Central Asian mountain range of Tien Shan – a north-oriented tributary of the Adygine Valley, where the retreat of a polythermal glacier surrounded by permafrost has resulted in the formation of several generations of lakes. The aim of this study was to analyse the past development of different types of glacial lakes influenced by the same glacier, to project the site's future development, and to evaluate the outburst susceptibility of individual lakes with an outlook for expected future change. We addressed the problem using a combination of methods, namely bathymetric, geodetic and geophysical on-site surveys, satellite images and digital elevation model analysis, and modelling of glacier development. Based on this case of the glacial lakes being of varied age and type, we demonstrated the significance of glacier ice in lake development. Lake 3, which is in contact with the glacier terminus, has changed rapidly over the last decade, expanding both in area and depth and increasing its volume by more than 13 times (7800 to 106 000 m3). The hydrological connections and routing of glacier meltwater have proved to be an important factor as well, since most lakes in the region are drained by subsurface channels. As the site is at the boundary between continuous and discontinuous permafrost, the subsurface water flow is strongly governed by the distribution of non-frozen zones above, within, or beneath the perennially frozen ground. In the evaluation of lake outburst susceptibility, we have highlighted the importance of field data, which can provide crucial information on lake stability. In our case, an understanding of the hydrological system at the site, and its regime, helped to categorise Lake 2 as having low outburst susceptibility, while Lake 1 and Lake 3 were labelled as lakes with medium outburst susceptibility. Further development of the site will be driven mainly by rising air temperatures and increasingly negative glacier mass balance. All three climate model scenarios predicted a significant glacier areal decrease by 2050, specifically leaving 73.2 % (A1B), 62.3 % (A2), and 55.6 % (B1) of the extent of the glacier in 2012. The glacier retreat will be accompanied by changes in glacier runoff, with the first peak expected around 2020, and the formation of additional lakes.

Seasonal and elevational contrasts in temperature trends in Central Chile between 1979 and 2015

We analyze trends in temperature from 18 temperature stations and one upper air sounding site at 30°–35° S in central Chile between 1979–2015, to explore geographical and season temperature trends and their controls, using regional ocean-atmosphere indices. Significant warming trends are widespread at inland stations, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites, as found in previous studies. However, ubiquitous warming across the region in the past 8 years, suggests the recent period of coastal cooling has ended. Significant warming trends are largely restricted to austral spring, summer and autumn seasons, with very few significant positive or negative trends in winter identified. Autumn warming is notably strong in the Andes, which, together with significant warming in spring, could help to explain the negative mass balance of snow and glaciers in the region. A strong Pacific maritime influence on regional temperature trends is inferred through correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index and coastal sea surface temperature, but the strength of this influence rapidly diminishes inland, and the majority of valley, and all Andes, sites are independent of the IPO index. Instead, valley and Andes sites, and mid-troposphere temperature in the coastal radiosonde profile, show correlation with the autumn Antarctic Oscillation which, in its current positive phase, promotes subsidence and warming at the latitude of central Chile.

Investigating cold based summit glaciers through direct access to basal ice: A case study constraining the maximum age of Chli Titlis glacier, Switzerland

Cold glaciers at the highest locations of the European Alps have been investigated with great success by drilling ice cores to retrieve their stratigraphic climate records. Findings like the Oetztal ice man have demonstrated that small ice bodies at summit locations of comparatively lower altitudes may also contain old ice if comprising ice frozen to the underlying bedrock. In this case, constraining the maximum age of their basal ice part may help to identify past periods with minimum ice extent in the Alps. Facing ongoing warming and recent years with extremely negative glacier mass balance, these sites may not preserve their unique climate information for much longer, however. Since sampling and dating the lowermost ice is essential, and usually requires substantial logistical (drilling) effort, we utilize here the direct access to basal ice offered by an existing ice cave at Chli Titlis (3030&amp;amp;thinsp;m), Central Switzerland. Our dedicated approach comprises a combination of standard glaciological tools with the analysis of the isotopic and physical properties and sophisticated radiocarbon dating techniques. By this means we demonstrate that, in comparison to an earlier study at Chli Titlis, stagnant cold basal ice conditions still exist fairly unchanged more than 25 years after the pioneering exploration. Our radiocarbon analysis constrains the maximum age of the ice at Chli Titlis to about 5000 years before present. By this means, the approach presented here will contribute to a future systematic investigation of cold-based summit glaciers also targeting the Eastern Alps.

ICESat laser altimetry over small mountain glaciers

Abstract. Using sparsely glaciated southern Norway as a case study, we assess the potential and limitations of ICESat laser altimetry for analysing regional glacier elevation change in rough mountain terrain. Differences between ICESat GLAS elevations and reference elevation data are plotted over time to derive a glacier surface elevation trend for the ICESat acquisition period 2003–2008. We find spatially varying biases between ICESat and three tested digital elevation models (DEMs): the Norwegian national DEM, SRTM DEM, and a high-resolution lidar DEM. For regional glacier elevation change, the spatial inconsistency of reference DEMs – a result of spatio-temporal merging – has the potential to significantly affect or dilute trends. Elevation uncertainties of all three tested DEMs exceed ICESat elevation uncertainty by an order of magnitude, and are thus limiting the accuracy of the method, rather than ICESat uncertainty. ICESat matches glacier size distribution of the study area well and measures small ice patches not commonly monitored in situ. The sample is large enough for spatial and thematic subsetting. Vertical offsets to ICESat elevations vary for different glaciers in southern Norway due to spatially inconsistent reference DEM age. We introduce a per-glacier correction that removes these spatially varying offsets, and considerably increases trend significance. Only after application of this correction do individual campaigns fit observed in situ glacier mass balance. Our correction also has the potential to improve glacier trend significance for other causes of spatially varying vertical offsets, for instance due to radar penetration into ice and snow for the SRTM DEM or as a consequence of mosaicking and merging that is common for national or global DEMs. After correction of reference elevation bias, we find that ICESat provides a robust and realistic estimate of a moderately negative glacier mass balance of around −0.36 ± 0.07 m ice per year. This regional estimate agrees well with the heterogeneous but overall negative in situ glacier mass balance observed in the area.

Polychlorinated Biphenyls in a Temperate Alpine Glacier: 1. Effect of Percolating Meltwater on their Distribution in Glacier Ice.

In Alpine regions, glaciers act as environmental archives and can accumulate significant amounts of atmospherically derived pollutants. Due to the current climate-warming-induced accelerated melting, these pollutants are being released at correspondingly higher rates. To examine the effect of melting on the redistribution of legacy pollutants in Alpine glaciers, we analyzed polychlorinated biphenyls in an ice core from the temperate Silvretta glacier, located in eastern Switzerland. This glacier is affected by surface melting in summer. As a result, liquid water percolates down and particles are enriched in the current annual surface layer. Dating the ice core was a challenge because meltwater percolation also affects the traditionally used parameters. Instead, we counted annual layers of particulate black carbon in the ice core, adding the years with negative glacier mass balance, that is, years with melting and subsequent loss of the entire annual snow accumulation. The analyzed samples cover the time period 1930-2011. The concentration of indicator PCBs (iPCBs) in the Silvretta ice core follows the emission history, peaking in the 1970s (2.5 ng/L). High PCB values in the 1990s and 1930s are attributed to meltwater-induced relocation within the glacier. The total iPCB load at the Silvretta ice core site is 5 ng/cm(2). A significant amount of the total PCB burden in the Silvretta glacier has been released to the environment.

Rising and falling river flows: contrasting signals of climate change and glacier mass balance from the eastern and western Karakoram

Field observations and geodetic measurements suggest that in the Karakoram Mountains, glaciers are either stable or have expanded since 1990, in sharp contrast to glacier retreats that are prevalently observed in the Himalayas and adjoining high-altitude terrains of central Asia. Decreased discharge in the rivers originating from this region is cited as a supporting evidence for this somewhat anomalous phenomenon. Here, we show that river discharge during the melting season of the glaciers in the eastern and western Karakoram, respectively, exhibits rising and falling trends. We have implemented a statistical procedure involving non-parametric tests combined with a benchmark smoothing technique that has proven to be a powerful method for separating the stochastic component from the trend component in a time series. Precipitation patterns determined from ERA-40 and GPCP data indicate that summer-monsoonal precipitation has increased over the Karakoram Mountains in recent decades. Increasing flows in June and July in the eastern Karakoram are due to an increase in summer-monsoonal precipitation. The rising trend of August discharge is due to an increase in the loss of glacier storage at an approximate average rate of 0.186–0.217 mm d-1 year-1 during the period 1973–2010. Moreover, this rate is higher than the rate of increase in monsoonal snowfall during the months of August and September. Therefore, most plausibly, glacier mass balance in the eastern Karakoram is negative. In the western Karakoram, river flows show declining trends for all summer months for the period 1966–2010, corresponding to a rate of increase of glacier storage by approximately 0.552–0.644 mm d-1 year-1, which is also higher than the rate of increase in summer-monsoonal precipitation. The gain of the cryospheric mass in the western Karakoram is in the form of increased thickness of the glaciers and perennial snowpacks instead of areal expansion. This investigation shows two contrasting patterns of trends of river flows that signify both negative and positive mass balance of the Karakoram glaciers. Trends of river flows are spatially and temporally integrated responses of a watershed to changing climate and thereby are important signals of the conditions of the cryospheric component of a watershed where it is highly significant. However, they cannot unequivocally provide indications of the state and fate of the glaciers in the complex hydrometeorological setting of the Karakoram. Extreme caution and care must be exercised in interpreting trends of river discharge in conjunction with climatic data.