Negative Control Outcome Research Articles

The impact of EV71 vaccination program on hand, foot and mouth disease in Zhejiang Province, China: A negative control study

ObjectiveTo estimate the potential causal impact of Enterovirus A71 (EV71) vaccination program on the reduction of EV71-infected hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Zhejiang Province. MethodsWe utilized the longitudinal surveillance dataset of HFMD and EV71 vaccination in Zhejiang Province during 2010–2019. We estimated vaccine efficacy using a Bayesian structured time series (BSTS) model, and employed a negative control outcome (NCO) model to detect unmeasured confounding and reveal potential causal association. ResultsWe estimated that 20,132 EV71 cases (95% CI: 16,733, 23,532) were prevented by vaccination program during 2017–2019, corresponding to a reduction of 29% (95% CI: 24%, 34%). The effectiveness of vaccination increased annually, with reductions of 11% (95% CI: 6%, 16%) in 2017 and 66% (95% CI: 61%, 71%) in 2019. Children under 5 years old obtained greater benefits compared to those over 5 years. Cities with higher vaccination coverage experienced a sharper EV71 reduction compared to those with lower coverage. The NCO model detected no confounding factors in the association between vaccination and EV71 cases reduction. ConclusionsThis study suggested a potential causal effect of the EV71 vaccination, highlighting the importance of achieving higher vaccine coverage to control the HFMD.

Association between chiropractic spinal manipulation and gabapentin prescription in adults with radicular low back pain: retrospective cohort study using US data

ObjectivesRadicular low back pain (rLBP) is often treated off-label with gabapentin or by chiropractors using chiropractic spinal manipulative therapy (CSMT). To date, no studies have examined the association between these...

Heart failure pharmacological treatments and outcomes in heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction.

Guideline recommendations for the treatment of heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) derive from small subgroups in post-hoc analyses of randomized trials. We investigated predictors of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors/angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors (RASI/ARNI) and beta-blockers use, and the associations between these medications and mortality/morbidity in a large real-world cohort with HFmrEF. Patients with HFmrEF (EF 40-49%) from the Swedish HF Registry were included. The associations between medications and cardiovascular (CV) mortality/HF hospitalization (HFH), and all-cause mortality were assessed through Cox regressions in a 1:1 propensity score-matched cohort. A positive control analysis was performed in patients with EF<40%, while a negative control outcome analysis had cancer-related hospitalization as endpoint. Of 12421 patients with HFmrEF, 84% received RASI/ARNI and 88% beta-blockers. Shared-independent predictors of RASI/ARNI and beta-blockers use were younger age, being an outpatient, follow-up in specialty care, and hypertension. In the matched cohorts, use of both RASI/ARNI and beta-blocker use was separately associated with lower risk of CV mortality/HFH [hazard ratio (HR)=0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83-0.98 and HR=0.82, 95% CI: 0.74-0.90, respectively] and of all-cause mortality (HR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.69-0.81 and HR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.72-0.87, respectively). Results were consistent at the positive control analysis, and there were no associations between treatment use and the negative control outcome. RASI/ARNI and beta-blockers were extensively used in this large real-world cohort with HFmrEF. Their use was safe since associated with lower mortality and morbidity. Our findings confirm the real-world evidence from previous post-hoc analyses of trials, and represent a further call for implementing guideline recommendations.

Pragmatic considerations for negative control outcome studies to guide non-randomized comparative analyses: A narrative review.

This narrative review describes the application of negative control outcome (NCO) methods to assess potential bias due to unmeasured or mismeasured confounders in non-randomized comparisons of drug effectiveness and safety. An NCO is assumed to have no causal relationship with a treatment under study while subject to the same confounding structure as the treatment and outcome of interest; an association between treatment and NCO then reflects the potential for uncontrolled confounding between treatment and outcome. We focus on two recently completed NCO studies that assessed the comparability of outcome risk for patients initiating different osteoporosis medications and lipid-lowering therapies, illustrating several ways in which confounding may result. In these studies, NCO methods were implemented in claims-based data sources, with the results used to guide the decision to proceed with comparative effectiveness or safety analyses. Based on this research, we provide recommendations for future NCO studies, including considerations for the identification of confounding mechanisms in the target patient population, the selection of NCOs expected to satisfy required assumptions, the interpretation of NCO effect estimates, and the mitigation of uncontrolled confounding detected in NCO analyses. We propose the use of NCO studies prior to initiating comparative effectiveness or safety research, providing information on the potential presence of uncontrolled confounding in those comparative analyses. Given the increasing use of non-randomized designs for regulatory decision-making, the application of NCO methods will strengthen study design, analysis, and interpretation of real-world data and the credibility of the resulting real-world evidence.

Safety outcomes of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors in adolescent attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder with comorbid depression: the ASSURE study.

Attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is related to depressive disorder, and adolescents with both present poor outcomes. However, evidence for the safety of concomitantly using a methylphenidate (MPH) and a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) among adolescent ADHD patients is limited, a literature gap aimed to address through this investigation. We conducted a new-user cohort study using a nationwide claims database in South Korea. We identified a study population as adolescents who were diagnosed both ADHD and depressive disorder. MPH-only users were compared with patients who prescribed both a SSRI and a MPH. Fluoxetine and escitalopram users were also compared to find a preferable treatment option. Thirteen outcomes including neuropsychiatric, gastrointestinal, and other events were assessed, taking respiratory tract infection as a negative control outcome. We matched the study groups using a propensity score and used the Cox proportional hazard model to calculate the hazard ratio. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted in various epidemiologic settings. The risks of all the outcomes between the MPH-only and SSRI groups were not significantly different. Regarding SSRI ingredients, the risk of tic disorder was significantly lower in the fluoxetine group than the escitalopram group [HR 0.43 (0.25-0.71)]. However, there was no significant difference in other outcomes between the fluoxetine and escitalopram groups. The concomitant use of MPHs and SSRIs showed generally safe profiles in adolescent ADHD patients with depression. Most of the differences between fluoxetine and escitalopram, except those concerning tic disorder, were not significant.

Restricted Mean Survival Time Analysis to Estimate SGLT2i–Associated Heterogeneous Treatment Effects on Primary and Secondary Prevention of Cardiorenal Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes in Taiwan

Increasing numbers of post hoc analyses have applied restricted mean survival time (RMST) analysis on the aggregated-level data from clinical trials to report treatment effects, but studies that use individual-level claims data are needed to determine the feasibility of RMST analysis for quantifying treatment effects among patients with type 2 diabetes in routine clinical settings. To apply RMST analysis for assessing sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i)-associated cardiovascular (CV) events and estimating heterogenous treatment effects (HTEs) on CV and kidney outcomes in routine clinical settings. This comparative effectiveness study of Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database examined 21 144 propensity score (PS)-matched pairs of patients with type 2 diabetes with SGLT2i and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP4i) treatment for assessing CV outcomes, and 19 951 PS-matched pairs of patients with type 2 diabetes with SGLT2i and DPP4i treatment for assessing kidney outcomes. Patients were followed until December 31, 2018. Statistical analysis was performed from August 2021 to April 2022. Newly stable SGLT2i or DPP4i use in 2017. Study outcomes were CV events including hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), 3-point major adverse CV events (3P-MACE: nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], nonfatal stroke, and CV death), 4-point MACE (4P-MACE: HHF and 3P-MACE), and all-cause death, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). RMST and Cox modeling analyses were applied to estimate treatment effects on study outcomes. After PS matching, the baseline patient characteristics were comparable between 21 144 patients with stable SGLT2i use (eg, mean [SD] age: 58.3 [10.7] years; 11 990 [56.7%] male) and 21 144 patients with stable DPP4i use (eg, mean [SD] age: 58.1 [11.6] years; 12 163 [57.5%] male) for assessing CV outcomes, and those were also comparable between 19 951 patients with stable SGLT2i use (eg, mean [SD] age: 58.1 [10.7] years; 11 231 [56.2%] male) and 19 951 patients with stable DPP4i use (eg, mean [SD] age: 57.9 [11.5] years; 11 340 [56.8%] male) for assessing kidney outcome. The 2-year difference in RMST between patients with SGLT2i use and patients with DPP4i use was 4.99 (95% CI, 3.56-6.42) days for HHF, 4.12 (95% CI, 2.72-5.52) days for 3P-MACE, 7.72 (95% CI, 5.83-9.61) days for 4P-MACE, 1.26 (95% CI, 0.47-2.04) days for MI, 2.70 (95% CI, 1.57-3.82) days for stroke, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.28-1.11) days for CV death, 6.05 (95% CI, 4.89-7.20) days for all-cause death, and 14.75 (95% CI, 12.99-16.52) days for CKD. Directions of hazard ratios from Cox modeling analyses were consistent with RMST estimates. No association was found between study treatment and the negative control outcome (dental visits for tooth care). Consistent results across sensitivity analyses using high-dimensional PS-matched and PS-weighting approaches supported the validity of primary analysis results. Largest difference in RMST of SGLT2i vs DPP4i use for HHF and CKD was found among patients with established heart failure (30.80 [95% CI, 5.08-56.51] days) and retinopathy (40.43 [95% CI, 31.74-49.13] days), respectively. In this comparative effectiveness study, RMST analysis was feasible for translating treatment effects into more clinical intuitive estimates and valuable for quantifying HTEs among diverse patients in routine clinical settings.

The effects of modifiable maternal pregnancy exposures on offspring molar-incisor hypomineralisation: A negative control study.

Explore associations between modifiable maternal pregnancy exposures: pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), pregnancy smoking and alcohol consumption with offspring molar-incisor hypomineralisation (MIH) and use negative control analyses to explore for the presence of confounding. Using data from a prospective UK birth cohort, Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, we performed logistic regression to explore confounder adjusted associations between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and smoking and alcohol consumption during pregnancy with MIH. We compared these with negative control exposure (paternal BMI, smoking and alcohol) and outcome (offspring dental trauma) analyses. 5,536 mother/offspring pairs were included (297 (5.4%) MIH cases). We found a weak, positive association between maternal mean BMI and offspring MIH (Odds Ratio (OR) per 1-kg/m2 difference in BMI: 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.08). Results of subsequent analyses suggested this effect was non-linear and being driven by women in the highest BMI quintile (OR for women in the highest BMI quintile versus the lowest: 1.61 95%CI: 1.02, 2.60). Negative control analyses showed no evidence of an association between paternal BMI and offspring MIH (OR: 0.94, 95%CI: 0.89,1.00) and maternal BMI and offspring dental trauma (OR: 0.99, 95%CI: 0.96, 1.02). There was no clear evidence of an association for maternal smoking (OR: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.46,1.22) or alcohol consumption (OR: 0.79, 95%CI: 0.56, 1.21) with offspring MIH with results imprecisely estimated. We found a possible intrauterine effect for high maternal pre-pregnancy BMI on offspring MIH, but no robust evidence of an intrauterine effect for maternal pregnancy smoking or alcohol consumption. A key limitation includes possible misclassification of MIH. Replication of these results is warranted.

Diabetes medications and associations with Covid-19 outcomes in the N3C database: A national retrospective cohort study.

While vaccination is the most important way to combat the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there may still be a need for early outpatient treatment that is safe, inexpensive, and currently widely available in parts of the world that do not have access to the vaccine. There are in-silico, in-vitro, and in-tissue data suggesting that metformin inhibits the viral life cycle, as well as observational data suggesting that metformin use before infection with SARS-CoV2 is associated with less severe COVID-19. Previous observational analyses from single-center cohorts have been limited by size. Conducted a retrospective cohort analysis in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) for associations between metformin use and COVID-19 outcomes with an active comparator design of prevalent users of therapeutically equivalent diabetes monotherapy: metformin versus dipeptidyl-peptidase-4-inhibitors (DPP4i) and sulfonylureas (SU). This took place in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) longitudinal U.S. cohort of adults with +SARS-CoV-2 result between January 1 2020 to June 1 2021. Findings included hospitalization or ventilation or mortality from COVID-19. Back pain was assessed as a negative control outcome. 6,626 adults with T2DM and +SARS-CoV-2 from 36 sites. Mean age was 60.7 +/- 12.0 years; 48.7% male; 56.7% White, 21.9% Black, 3.5% Asian, and 16.7% Latinx. Mean BMI was 34.1 +/- 7.8kg/m2. Overall 14.5% of the sample was hospitalized; 1.5% received mechanical ventilation; and 1.8% died. In adjusted outcomes, compared to DPP4i, metformin had non-significant associations with reduced need for ventilation (RR 0.68, 0.32-1.44), and mortality (RR 0.82, 0.41-1.64). Compared to SU, metformin was associated with a lower risk of ventilation (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.28-0.98, p = 0.044) and mortality (RR 0.56, 95%CI 0.33-0.97, p = 0.037). There was no difference in unadjusted or adjusted results of the negative control. There were clinically significant associations between metformin use and less severe COVID-19 compared to SU, but not compared to DPP4i. New-user studies and randomized trials are needed to assess early outpatient treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis with therapeutics that are safe in adults, children, pregnancy and available worldwide.

Impact of Integrating Machine Learning in Comparative Effectiveness Research of Oral Anticoagulants in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation.

We aimed to compare the ability to balance baseline covariates and explore the impact of residual confounding between conventional and machine learning approaches to derive propensity scores (PS). The Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database (January 2012–September 2019) was used. Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who initiated oral anticoagulants during July 2015–September 2018 were included. The outcome of interest was stroke/systemic embolism. To estimate PS, we used a logistic regression model (i.e., a conventional approach) and a generalized boosted model (GBM) which is a machine learning approach. Both PS matching and inverse probability of treatment weighting were performed. To evaluate balance achievement, standardized differences, p-values, and boxplots were used. To explore residual confounding, E-values and negative control outcomes were used. In total, 129,434 patients were identified. Although all baseline covariates were well balanced, the distribution of continuous variables seemed more similar when GBM was applied. E-values ranged between 1.75 and 2.70 and were generally higher in GBM. In the negative control outcome analysis, slightly more nonsignificant hazard ratios were observed in GBM. We showed GBM provided a better ability to balance covariates and had a lower impact of residual confounding, compared with the conventional approach in the empirical example of comparative effectiveness analysis.

Environmental Pollutants Are Associated With Irritable Bowel Syndrome in a Commercially Insured Cohort of California Residents

Background and AimsPrior studies have linked environmental pollutants with gastrointestinal (GI) diseases. Here, we quantify the relationships between 7 pollutants and the zip code–level incidence of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), functional dyspepsia, inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs), and eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) in California. MethodsClaims in Optum’s Clinformatics Data Mart were linked with environmental exposures in California, derived from CalEnviroScreen 3.0. We identified adult patients with new diagnoses of each GI disease, and estimated claims-derived, zip code–level disease incidence rates. Two study periods were considered: 2009–2014 (International Classification of Diseases–Ninth Revision era) and 2016–2019 (International Classification of Diseases–Tenth Revision [ICD-10] era). Multivariable negative binomial regression models were used to test associations between 7 pollutants (ozone, particulate matter <2.5 μm [PM2.5], diesel emissions, drinking water contaminants, pesticides, toxic releases from industrial facilities, traffic density) and zip code–level incidence of the GI diseases along with a negative control outcome, adjusting for numerous potential confounders. ResultsZip code-level IBS incidence was associated with PM2.5 (P < .001 in both eras) and airborne toxic releases from facilities (P < .001 in both eras). An increase of 1 μg/m3 in PM2.5 or 1% in toxic releases translates to an increase in the IBS incidence rate of about 0.02 cases per 100 person-years. Traffic density and drinking water contaminant exposures were also associated with increasing IBS incidence, but these associations were not significant in both eras. Similarly, exposure to PM2.5, drinking water contaminants and airborne toxic releases from facilities were associated with functional dyspepsia incidence, though not in both eras. No significant associations were noted between pollutants and IBD or EoE incidence. ConclusionExposure to PM2.5 and airborne toxic releases from facilities are associated with higher IBS incidence among a cohort of commercially insured Californians. Environmental pollutant exposure was not associated with the incidence of IBDs and EoE in this cohort.

Osteoporosis and sarcopenia-related traits: A bi-directional Mendelian randomization study.

BackgroundWith the advancement of world population aging, age-related osteoporosis (OP) and sarcopenia (SP) impose enormous clinical and economic burden on society. Evidence from accumulating studies indicates that they mutually influence one another. However, an observational study may be affected by potential confounders. Meanwhile, a Mendelian randomization (MR) study can overcome these confounders to assess causality.ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to evaluate the causality between OP and SP, informing new strategies for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of osteosarcopenia.MethodsInstrumental variables (IVs) at the genome‐wide significance level were obtained from published summary statistics, and the inverse variance weighted method and several other MR methods were conducted to evaluate the bi-directional causality between SP and OP. Myopia was analyzed as a negative control outcome to test the validity of IVs.ResultsFemoral neck bone mineral density (FN BMD), lumbar spine BMD (LS BMD), and forearm BMD (FA BMD) had a direct causal effect on appendicular lean mass (ALM) [FA BMD-related analysis: odds ratio (OR) = 1.028, 95% confidence interval (CI) = (1.008,1.049), p = 0.006; FN BMD-related analysis: OR (95% CI) = 1.131 (1.092,1.170), p = 3.18E-12; LS BMD-related analysis: OR (95% CI) = 1.080 (1.062,1.098), p = 2.86E-19]. ALM had a significant causal effect on LS BMD [OR (95% CI) = (1.033,1.147), p = 0.001]. There was no evidence for causal association between BMD and low grip strength.ConclusionsOP and SP might mutually have a significant causal effect on each other. Our results supported the idea that the patient with severe OP was more susceptible to lose ALM and severe ALM loss might reduce LS BMD.

Lower incidence of hospital-treated infections in infants under 3 months of age vaccinated with BCG

BackgroundLive vaccines potentially have non-specific effects that protect against other infections than those the vaccines are targeted against. The national vaccination program (NVP) in Finland was changed on September 1st, 2006: before BCG vaccine was given to all newborn babies and afterwards to babies in risk groups only. We used this natural experiment to study the non-specific effects of BCG in the frame of NVP using before-after design. MethodsWe compared the incidence of several outcomes obtained from Finnish health registers between children born between July 1st, 2004, and June 30th, 2006 (BCG-eligible) and an age- and season-matched reference cohort born between July 1st, 2007, and June 30th, 2009 (BCG-non-eligible) using Poisson regression. These cohorts were restricted to full-term children whose parents were born in Finland. Follow-up began at birth and lasted 3 months, which is the scheduled age for DTaP-IPV-Hib vaccination, and from 4 months until first birthday. The outcomes included all infections, pneumonia and injuries as a negative control outcome. ResultsThe incidence rate ratio (IRR) of the BCG-eligible cohort (N = 93,658) compared to BCG-non-eligible cohort (N = 94,712) for hospital-diagnosed infections was 0.89 (95 %Cl 0.86–0.93) for the 3-month follow-up. The decrease was mainly caused by respiratory infections. In 4–12 months follow-up the BCG-eligible had slightly more infections than BCG-non-eligible children (IRR 1.03, 1.01–1.06). ConclusionsBCG vaccination was associated with a lower incidence of all hospital-diagnosed infections during the first three months of life. The difference cannot be attributed to lung tuberculosis, since only few paediatric cases occurred in Finland during 2000s. The disappearance of non-specific effect after administration of an inactivated vaccine is compatible with previous studies.

Indirect covariate balance and residual confounding: An applied comparison of propensity score matching and cardinality matching.

Propensity score matching (PSM) is subject to limitations associated with limited degrees of freedom and covariate overlap. Cardinality matching (CM), an optimization algorithm, overcomes these limitations by matching directly on the marginal distribution of covariates. This study compared the performance of PSM and CM. Comparative cohort study of new users of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) and β-blocker monotherapy identified from a large U.S. administrative claims database. One-to-one matching was conducted through PSM using nearest-neighbor matching (caliper=0.15) and CM permitting a maximum standardized mean difference (SMD) of 0, 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10 between comparison groups. Matching covariates included 37 patient demographic and clinical characteristics. Observed covariates included patient demographics, and all observed prior conditions, drug exposures, and procedures. Residual confounding was assessed based on the expected absolute systematic error of negative control outcome experiments. PSM and CM were compared in terms of post-match patient retention, matching and observed covariate balance, and residual confounding within a 10%, 1%, 0.25% and 0.125% sample group. The eligible study population included 182 235 (ACEI: 129363; β-blocker: 56872) patients. CM achieved superior patient retention and matching covariate balance in all analyses. After PSM, 1.6% and 28.2% of matching covariates were imbalanced in the 10% and 0.125% sample groups, respectively. No significant difference in observed covariate balance was observed between matching techniques. CM permitting a maximum SMD <0.05 was associated with improved residual bias as compared to PSM. We recommend CM with more stringent balance criteria as an alternative to PSM when matching on a set of clinically relevant covariates.

Comparative Risk of Opioid Overdose With Concomitant Use of Prescription Opioids and Skeletal Muscle Relaxants.

The concomitant use of prescription opioids and skeletal muscle relaxants has been associated with opioid overdose, but little data exist on the head-to-head safety of these drug combinations. The objective of this study was to compare the risk of opioid overdose among patients on long-term opioid therapy who concurrently initiate skeletal muscle relaxants. We conducted an active comparator cohort study spanning 2000 to 2019 using healthcare utilization data from 4 US commercial and public insurance databases. Individuals were required to have at least 180 days of continuous enrollment and at least 90 days of continuous prescription opioid use immediately before and on the date of skeletal muscle relaxant initiation. Exposures were the concomitant use of prescription opioids and skeletal muscle relaxants, and the main outcome was the hazard ratio (HR) and bootstrapped 95% CI of opioid overdose resulting in an emergency department visit or hospitalization. The primary analysis quantified opioid overdose risk across 7 prescription opioid-skeletal muscle relaxant therapies and a negative control outcome (sepsis) to assess potential confounding by unmeasured illicit opioid use. Secondary analyses evaluated two-group and five-group comparisons in patients with similar baseline characteristics; individuals without previous recorded substance abuse; and subgroups stratified by baseline opioid dosage, benzodiazepine codispensing, and oxycodone or hydrocodone use. Weighted HR of opioid overdose relative to cyclobenzaprine was 2.52 (95% CI 1.29-4.90) for baclofen; 1.64 (95% CI 0.81-3.34) for carisoprodol; 1.14 (95% CI 0.53-2.46) for chlorzoxazone/orphenadrine; 0.46 (95% CI 0.17-1.24) for metaxalone; 1.00 (95% CI 0.45-2.20) for methocarbamol; and 1.07 (95% CI 0.49-2.33) for tizanidine in the 30-day intention-to-treat analysis. Findings were similar in the as-treated analysis, 2-group and 5-group comparisons, and patients without previous recorded substance abuse. None of the therapies relative to cyclobenzaprine were associated with sepsis, and no subgroups indicated an increased risk of opioid overdose. Concomitant use of prescription opioids and baclofen relative to cyclobenzaprine is associated with opioid overdose. Clinical interventions may focus on prescribing alternatives in the same drug class or providing access to opioid antagonists if treatment with both medications is necessary for pain management.

Prevention of Neisseria gonorrhoeae with meningococcal B vaccine: a matched cohort study in Southern California.

Neisseria gonorrhoeae is acquiring increasing resistance to available oral antibiotics, and current screening and treatment approaches have not decreased gonorrhea incidence. Although a gonorrhea-specific vaccine does not exist, N. gonorrhoeae shares much of its genome with Neisseria meningitidis, notably critical antigenic determinants including outer membrane vesicles (OMV). Prior observational studies have suggested that OMV-based meningococcal serogroup B vaccines confer protection against gonorrhea. We conducted a matched cohort study from 2016-2020 to examine the association of OMV-containing recombinant meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) with gonorrhea infection among teens and young adults at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Recipients of 4CMenB were matched in a ratio of 1:4 to recipients of non-OMV-containing polysaccharide-conjugate vaccine targeting serotypes A, C, W, Y ("MenACWY") who had not received 4CMenB and were followed for incident gonorrhea. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to compare gonorrhea rates among recipients of 4CMenB vs MenACWY, adjusting for potential confounders. We conducted the same analysis with chlamydia as a negative control outcome. The study included 6,641 recipients of 4CMenB matched to 26,471 recipients of MenACWY. During follow-up, gonorrhea incidence rates per 1000 person-years (95% CI) were 2.0 (1.3-2.8) for recipients of 4CMenB and 5.2 (4.6-5.8) for recipients of MenACWY. In adjusted analyses, gonorrhea rates were 46% lower among recipients of 4CMenB vs MenACWY (HR [95% CI] 0.54 [0.34-0.86]), but chlamydia rates were similar between vaccine groups (HR [95% CI] 0.98 [0.82-1.17]). These results suggest cross-protection of 4CMenB against gonorrhea, supporting the potential for vaccination strategies to prevent gonorrhea.

Large-scale evidence generation and evaluation across a network of databases for type 2 diabetes mellitus (LEGEND-T2DM): a protocol for a series of multinational, real-world comparative cardiovascular effectiveness and safety studies

IntroductionTherapeutic options for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have expanded over the last decade with the emergence of cardioprotective novel agents, but without such data for older drugs, leaving a...

Male-origin microchimerism and endometrial cancer: A prospective case-cohort study

BackgroundMany women carry male cells of presumed fetal origin–so-called male-origin microchimerism (MOM)–in their circulation and tissues. Studies have found reduced risks of hormone dependent cancers, including breast and ovarian cancer, among MOM-positive women. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between MOM and endometrial cancer. MethodsWe designed a prospective case-cohort study including 76 cases and 505 controls from the Diet, Cancer and Health cohort aged 50–64 years and cancer-free at enrolment in 1993–1997. We analyzed blood samples for the presence of Y-chromosome (DYS14). We examined the association between MOM and endometrial cancer in weighted Cox regression models. As a negative control outcome, we studied the association between MOM and injuries to test for spurious associations. ResultsWe detected MOM in 65.9% controls and 54.0% cases. While we observed no overall association between MOM and endometrial cancer (HR=0.73, 95% CI: 0.47–1.15), we found a borderline significantly reduced rate of Type 1 endometrial cancer (HR=0.66, 95% CI: 0.39–1.00), but not other types of endometrial cancers (HR=1.00, 95% CI: 0.35–2.90). The reduced rate was not modified by hormonal exposure (P = 0.79). We found no association between MOM and risk of injuries (HR=0.96, 95% CI: 95% CI: 0.78–1.21). ConclusionsOur study suggests that MOM is inversely associated with Type 1 endometrial cancer, without evidence of an interaction with hormonal exposure. We encourage future research to confirm our findings.

Increasing efficiency and reducing bias when assessing HPV vaccination efficacy by using nontargeted HPV strains.

Studies of vaccine efficacy often record both the incidence of vaccine-targeted virus strains (primary outcome) and the incidence of nontargeted strains (secondary outcome). However, standard estimates of vaccine efficacy on targeted strains ignore the data on nontargeted strains. Assuming nontargeted strains are unaffected by vaccination, we regard the secondary outcome as a negative control outcome and show how using such data can (i) increase the precision of the estimated vaccine efficacy against targeted strains in randomized trials and (ii) reduce confounding bias of that same estimate in observational studies. For objective (i), we augment the primary outcome estimating equation with a function of the secondary outcome that is unbiased for zero. For objective (ii), we jointly estimate the treatment effects on the primary and secondary outcomes. If the bias induced by the unmeasured confounders is similar for both types of outcomes, as is plausible for factors that influence the general risk of infection, then we can use the estimated efficacy against the secondary outcomes to remove the bias from estimated efficacy against the primary outcome. We demonstrate the utility of these approaches in studies of HPV vaccines that only target a few highly carcinogenic strains. In this example, using nontargeted strains increased precision in randomized trials modestly but reduced bias in observational studies substantially.

Comparative effectiveness and safety of homologous two-dose ChAdOx1 versus heterologous vaccination with ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2

Small trials have suggested that heterologous vaccination with first-dose ChAdOx1 and second-dose BNT162b2 may generate a better immune response than homologous vaccination with two doses of ChAdOx1. In this cohort analysis, we use linked data from Catalonia (Spain), where those aged <60 who received a first dose of ChAdOx1 could choose between ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 for their second dose. Comparable cohorts were obtained after exact-matching 14,325/17,849 (80.3%) people receiving heterologous vaccination to 14,325/149,386 (9.6%) receiving homologous vaccination by age, sex, region, and date of second dose. Of these, 464 (3.2%) in the heterologous and 694 (4.8%) in the homologous groups developed COVID-19 between 1st June 2021 and 5th December 2021. The resulting hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) is 0.66 [0.59–0.74], favouring heterologous vaccination. The two groups had similar testing rates and safety outcomes. Sensitivity and negative control outcome analyses confirm these findings. In conclusion, we demonstrate that a heterologous vaccination schedule with ChAdOx1 followed by BNT162b2 was more efficacious than and similarly safe to homologous vaccination with two doses of ChAdOx1. Most of the infections in our study occurred when Delta was the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in Spain. These data agree with previous phase 2 randomised trials.

Association of Intraoperative Transesophageal Echocardiography and Clinical Outcomes After Open Cardiac Valve or Proximal Aortic Surgery

Intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is used frequently in cardiac valve and proximal aortic surgical procedures, but there is a lack of evidence associating TEE use with improved clinical outcomes. To test the association between intraoperative TEE use and clinical outcomes following cardiac valve or proximal aortic surgery. This matched, retrospective cohort study used national registry data from the Society of Thoracic Surgeon (STS) Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (ACSD) to compare clinical outcomes among patients undergoing cardiac valve or proximal aortic surgery with vs without intraoperative TEE. Statistical analyses used optimal matching within propensity score calipers to conduct multiple matched comparisons including within-hospital and within-surgeon matches, a negative control outcome analysis, and sensitivity analyses. STS ACSD data encompasses more than 90% of all hospitals that perform cardiac surgery in the US. The study cohort consisted of all patients aged at least 18 years undergoing open cardiac valve repair or replacement surgery and/or proximal aortic surgery between 2011 and 2019. Statistical analysis was performed from October 2020 to April 2021. The exposure was receipt of intraoperative TEE during the cardiac valve or proximal aortic surgery. The primary outcome was death within 30 days of surgery. The secondary outcomes were (1) a composite outcome of stroke or 30-day mortality and (2) a composite outcome of reoperation or 30-day mortality. Of the 872 936 patients undergoing valve or aortic surgery, 540 229 (61.89%) were male; 63 565 (7.28%) were Black and 742 384 (85.04%) were White; 711 326 (81.5%) received TEE and 161 610 (18.5%) did not receive TEE; the mean (SD) age was 65.61 years (13.17) years. After matching, intraoperative TEE was significantly associated with a lower 30-day mortality rate compared with no TEE: 3.81% vs 5.27% (odds ratio [OR], 0.69 [95% CI, 0.67-0.72]; P < .001), a lower incidence of stroke or 30-day mortality: 5.56% vs 7.01% (OR, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.74-0.79]; P < .001), and a lower incidence of reoperation or 30-day mortality: 7.18% vs 8.87% (OR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.80]; P < .001). Results were similar across all matched comparisons (including within-hospital, within-surgeon matched analyses) and were robust to a negative control and sensitivity analyses. Among adults undergoing cardiac valve or proximal aortic surgery, intraoperative TEE use was associated with improved clinical outcomes in this cohort study. These findings support routine use of TEE in these procedures.