Natural Resource Windfalls Research Articles

Rentierism—Political Instability Nexus: The Danger of Oil-producing Region Crisis in Nigeria

The growing popularity of the rentier state theory has made the focus on the impact of oil rents on political stability central for revealing how natural resource (including oil) windfalls link to the weakness of institutional quality in any resource-rich economy. Considering the core characteristic of a rentier state (such as Nigeria)—a distributive political economy—the article examines how the stability of Nigerian political system can be affected by oil rents over the period 1996–2021. Through the adoption of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test to cointegration and vector error correction mechanism (VECM) for the test of long-run causality, the apparent effect of oil rents on Nigerian political development is reflected in the analyses and findings. Empirical evidence supports the oil impedes political stability assertion, as there is statistically valid negative association between oil rents and political stability in the short run and long run. It is demonstrated that oil wealth could offer greater incentives for civil conflicts, which have resulted in escalating political problems. In addition, the causality mechanism implies that the relationship found merely indicates association between oil rents and the level of political stability in the long term, and it is not causal. Thus, it is posited that through the adoption and implementation of sound policy measures, the escalation of conflicts would likely subside, especially in most oil-rich regions or states, whereas civil order could be promoted. It is, therefore, critical to enhancing fairness in the use and distribution of oil wealth, improving people’s welfare, particularly in the oil-producing communities and in general, ensuring that democratic principles in the management of resource windfalls are sustained. JEL: Q33, Q34, H56, H12

Income Shocks and Electoral Accountability: Evidence from Natural Resource Windfalls

Income Shocks and Electoral Accountability: Evidence from Natural Resource Windfalls

The resource curse and the role of institutions revisited

AbstractMany studies have shown that natural resource abundant countries with strong institutions tend to escape the resource curse. Institutional quality has been examined using broad indices of rule of law, the rate of murder, the share of the shadow economy and provision of public goods. Nonetheless, we need to locate the specific institutional conditions under which the curse manifests since some “rule of law” countries like Nigeria and Angola are generally classified as resource cursed. In this review, I argue that managing and distributing natural resource wealth through a centralised planning strategy and lack of a binding long-term national development plan are institutional conditions that encourage government unaccountability as they do not restrict policy makers against discretionary distribution of natural resource windfall, rent seeking, clientelism and corruption which contribute to poor economic development and growth. Also, inadequate regulations on how to address the potential or actual impacts of natural resource extraction on the livelihood of local people and the environment tend to precipitate grievance-induced resource conflict.

Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?

Why is the financial sector underdeveloped in resource-rich economies? Using a large panel dataset, we find slower growth in both financial sector deposits and private sector lending in countries that experience an unexpected natural resource windfall as measured by shocks to exogenous world prices. This effect is driven by countries with repressed financial systems and weak governance structures. The smaller role for the financial sector is accompanied by a stronger role of governments in channeling financial capital into the economy. The lack of private financial intermediation of natural resource windfalls hampers the development of the financial sector, which we interpret as evidence for a resource curse in financial development.

The Rise of Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Global Economy: Can South Africa Establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund?

ABSTRACT Establishing a sovereign wealth fund is one of the instruments the governing party has considered to give expression to the idea of a developmental state. Such an instrument would largely draw on natural resource windfalls to build an intergenerational store of wealth while also responding to longstanding developmental challenges. This makes sense given South Africa’s mineral endowments and future prospects in natural gas, as shown recently by the abortive attempt of Royal Dutch Shell to undertake geological surveys along the country’s wild coast. A sovereign wealth fund could underpin a developmental state and act as alternative resource for achieving legitimate social goals. South Africa presently lacks fiscal space and does not have the conditions necessary for a viable sovereign wealth fund. These need to be created. Certain resources and institutional qualities are vital to building a functional sovereign wealth fund, including a high-performing economy, current account surpluses or resource windfalls, sound institutional framework, good corporate governance, and strong state capabilities. The effects of the Covid-19 global pandemic, and its devastating impact on the South African economy, could further constrain the options of setting up a sovereign wealth fund, which is why the country needs to develop a long-term path for inter-generational equity.

Thresholds in natural resource rents and state owned enterprise profitability: Cross country evidence

In this paper we contribute to the resource curse literature by examining the association between state owned enterprises (SOE) profitability and natural resource rents. We use data on 91,094 firms across 36 industries in 101 countries to show that although SOEs are inherently less productive compared to privately owned enterprises (POEs), there exists a threshold value of natural resource rents windfall above which SOEs would outperform POEs profitability. This threshold value of natural resource windfall we find to be between 138.6% and 192.3% above the long-term median value of resource rents. We argue that this threshold may exist because of: (i) at the country level, higher level of natural resource rents allocation that is reinvested domestically in the form of SOE capital investments; and (ii) at the industry level, SOEs experience higher scale economies through production linkages to the natural resource sector.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency in local government expenditure: Evidence from Peru

AbstractWe study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the technical efficiency of public expenditure. Using a rich dataset of expenditure and public good provision for 1836 municipalities in Peru for the period 2001–2010, we estimate a nonmonotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom in mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls, whereas those that only benefited from modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts on the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

The enclave hypothesis and Dutch disease effect: A critical appraisal of Mali's gold mining industry

The main purpose of this paper is to test whether there are significant backward linkages from gold mining to manufacturing in Mali over the period 1982–2017. The analysis also examines the relevance of the ‘Dutch disease’ effect in Mali, where the discovery and exploitation of natural resources lead to a real exchange rate appreciation and a subsequent contraction of the manufacturing sector. Related studies on Mali are scarce, but those that do exist find support for Singer's enclave hypothesis, which states that mining is disconnected from the rest of the economy. A novel feature of the empirical strategy adopted in this paper relative to previous research is that we use both survey data collected from fieldwork and a vector error-correction model (VECM) to test for linkage effects and the Dutch disease hypothesis. The evidence shows that there are significant and persistent backward linkages from gold mining to manufacturing in Mali, thus providing a more optimistic view than the enclave hypothesis of previous research. The survey data, backed up by the econometric evidence, find that both gold mining companies and local suppliers are eager to do business with each other, and that both expect to strengthen their business ties in the near future. At the same time, however, the evidence suggests that there remains ample scope to strengthen backward linkages. We draw on the survey data analysis to suggest several practical policy measures. The econometric evidence rejects the Dutch disease hypothesis. The significant long-run effect of the real exchange rate on manufacturing output, however, provides another channel through which natural resource windfalls could boost industrial development in Mali. Overall, the evidence suggests that the natural resource sector can play a significant role to initiate industrial development, and that government policy is a key conduit to establish and strengthen backward linkages.

The Natural Resource Boom and The Uneven Fall of The Labor Share

We study the effect of the upsurge of natural resources income from the commodity price boom of the 2000s on the functional distribution of income. To do so, we build a general equilibrium model of Dutch disease that characterizes how natural resource windfalls affect equilibrium factor shares. The theory suggests that the response of factor shares to exogenous changes in commodity prices depends on the relative intensity in which factors are used in the tradable and natural resource sectors. We construct estimates of income shares accruing to raw labor, human capital, physical capital, and natural resources, and quantify the effect of the resource boom on factor shares. For identification, we use a two-way fixed effects strategy and a differential exposure design to instrument commodity prices. We find that a natural resource boom negatively impacts the total labor, human capital, and physical capital shares, while the raw labor share remains unchanged. Our estimates suggest that the natural resource boom explains nearly 25.7 percent of the global decline of the total labor share during the 2000s. We also find a redistribution effect within labor income that indicates that the fall of the labor share was unevenly distributed against human capital.

The Natural Resource Boom and the Uneven Fall of the Labor Share

We study the effect of the upsurge of natural resources income from the commodity price boom of the 2000s on the functional distribution of income. To do so, we build a general equilibrium model of Dutch disease that characterizes how natural resource windfalls affect equilibrium factor shares. The theory suggests that the response of factor shares to exogenous changes in commodity prices depends on the relative intensity in which factors are used in the tradable and natural resource sectors. We construct estimates of income shares accruing to raw labor, human capital, physical capital, and natural resources, and quantify the effect of the resource boom on factor shares. For identification, we use a two-way fixed effects strategy and a differential exposure design to instrument commodity prices. We find that a natural resource boom negatively impacts the total labor, human capital, and physical capital shares, while the raw labor share remains unchanged. Our estimates suggest that the natural resource boom explains nearly 25.7 percent of the global decline of the total labor share during the 2000s. We also find a redistribution effect within labor income that indicates that the fall of the labor share was unevenly distributed against human capital.

Nigerian Governance Challenge: Exploring the Role of Natural Resource Rents

Nigeria is a glaring example of a country where weak public institutions are pervasive in spite of its huge natural resource wealth. The presence of natural resource abundance has exacerbated the overwhelming development challenge in the economy. While the upshot of most empirical findings of the resource impact covers how the growth path is determined through the channel of institutions, the question as to why resource rents often fail to stimulate improved governance is more critical than ever. Hence, the study examines the effect of natural resource rents on the quality of governance in Nigeria for the period 1984–2017, using ARDL bounds test approach, Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS), and Granger Causality test based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results reveal that natural resource rents have an insignificant effect on governance indicators in the long-run as well in the short-run, suggesting that natural resource windfalls have a shallow effect on the development of good governance. However, further evidence indicates that pervasive institutional gaps in Nigeria could be stimulated or caused by the overdependence on natural resource rents and entrenched mismanagement tendencies. Thus, the study suggests that maintaining strong political commitment, curtailing overdependence on natural resources, and ensuring sound management of natural resource wealth are central for improved governance.

An Investigation of the Reasons for the Natural Resource Curse: Selected Country Cases

Ever since its growing importance, the natural resource abundance and economic growth relationship have been a hot field of study for researchers. In the existing literature, many studies pointing to the negative impact of natural resource endowment on economic growth performance. While some “blessed” natural resource-abundant countries enjoy their natural resource revenues and have a remarkable economic growth performance, many others are “cursed” despite having great natural resource wealth. Natural resource windfall may induce Dutch Disease with excessive rent-seeking, corruption, poor institutionalism, and democracy in resource-rich developing countries. The aim of this study is to investigate the causes of the natural resource curse in developing natural resource-rich countries. In this research, the sample natural resource-rich countries were analyzed between 1980 and 2018 to validate the existence of the natural resource curse in these countries. In the first part, the conceptual framework and reasons for the natural resource curse were explained in detail. In the second part, successful natural resource-rich country cases, as well as selected resource-rich developing countries, were compared according to their economic growth performances, their natural resource revenues, and degree of dependence of their economies on the natural resource revenues. In the last part, some policy suggestions were put forward to avoid a natural resource curse in developing countries.

Resource windfalls and public debt: A political economy perspective

Can natural resource windfalls increase public debt in democracies? Adopting a political economy perspective, we show that the answer is in the affirmative. Resource windfalls increase both the government’s income and wealth. The former mitigates the need to borrow, whereas the latter encourages further borrowing (as it improves its terms), implying an ambiguous pure effect of resource windfalls on debt. Re-election considerations shorten political time horizons and give rise to political myopia. We show that higher political myopia, induced by more stringent (institutional) re-election restrictions, magnifies the wealth effect, turning positive the effect of resource windfalls on debt. We test the model’s predictions using a panel of U.S. states over the period 1963-2007. Our identification strategy rests on constitutionally-entrenched differences in gubernatorial term limits that provide plausibly exogenous variation in re-election prospects, and geographically-based cross-state differences in natural endowments. Our baseline estimates indicate that a resource windfall of $1 induces an increase of approximately ¢20 in the public debt of states with more stringent re-election restrictions.

Commodity Revenues, Agricultural Sector and the Magnitude of Deindustrialization: A Novel Multisector Perspective

This study puts forward a model of a multisector economy and embeds it in a novel theoretical framework to address the relationship between commodity revenues and manufacturing output with a special focus on the role of the agricultural sector. The three-sector model lays the groundwork for analyzing policy choices in more complex sectoral settings. Based on the theoretical analysis, the study identifies the weight of the individual economic sectors in the public revenue generation as a determinant of the magnitude of rent seeking epitomized in the crowding out effect of investments in manufacturing. We find that enclave agriculture contributes to the deindustrialization pressure in the face of natural resource windfalls. The central finding of the multisector analysis is the conclusion that not diversification per se but rather a diversification with the substantial domestic factor or market orientation has the capability to limit the magnitude of deindustrialization. For the empirical validation of the theoretical findings, the study employs fixed effects, fully modified OLS, dynamic common correlated effects estimators and dynamic fixed effects estimators for the dataset of 113 developing and transition economies for 1963–2014 period. The estimations reveal that natural resource revenues correspond with a higher level of the manufacturing sector output. In the economies with a low level of economic diversification, commodity bonanza leads however to the shrinkage of the manufacturing. In the commodity revenue dependent settings, nevertheless, agricultural sector exports have a negative impact on the performance of the manufacturing sector. These findings are in line with the predictions of the theoretical model.

Deep Determinants of Corruption? A Subnational Analysis of Resource Curse Dynamics in American States

Drawing on comparative resource curse literature and American literature on the determinants of corruption, we argue that the impact of natural resource extraction on corruption outcomes is state-dependent. That is, in environments where corruption is already high, natural resource windfalls allow political actors and economic elites to take advantage of state brokerage, further increasing corruption. However, in previously less-corrupt states, increased natural resource extraction will not induce corruption. We rely on hierarchical linear models to interpret federal corruption convictions data for the fifty American states between 1976 and 2012 and employ generalized method of moments estimators to account for potential endogeneity. The findings are robust to alternative specifications and have implications for the management of new resource extraction opportunities.

The Fiscal Impact of Natural Resource Windfalls: Evidence from a Peruvian Natural Experiment

The Fiscal Impact of Natural Resource Windfalls: Evidence from a Peruvian Natural Experiment

Resource rents, economic growth, and the role of institutional quality: A panel threshold analysis

This study uses rule of law (i.e., institutional quality; IQ) as a threshold variable and revisits the nonlinear relationship between natural resource rent and economic growth under the resource curse hypothesis. The research utilizes the panel data of 14 resource-rich countries of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to identify possible threshold level(s) and to assess the effects using conventional OLS standard error and White-correlated standard error models. The empirical results confirm the existence of two significant threshold effects, indicating a positive relationship between resource rent and economic growth when a country's IQ is above the threshold level of −1.28 and within the range −1.28 to −1.37. However, below the threshold level of −1.37, the resource curse starts to operate, impeding economic growth. The results are robust under the alternative specification of system generalized methods of moment (GMM). Therefore, in contrast to linear and exogenous threshold estimations, this paper shows the required IQ threshold levels for SSA resource-rich countries where they can ensure economic growth using their natural resource windfalls. Failing to account for the endogenous nonlinearities may conceal both the required minimum threshold levels of countries to maintain economic growth and the dynamic effects of IQ. Thus, we recommend policymakers and researchers consider the pivotal role of the threshold effects of IQ to allow for sustainable economic growth.

The Broad Impact of a Narrow Conflict: How Natural Resource Windfalls Shape Policy and Politics

Access to natural resources creates a political conflict between the expected economic winners and their environmental opponents, but the effects of such conflict on policy and politics remain uncl...

Natural Resource Windfalls and Efficiency of Local Government Expenditures: Evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom.

Natural resource windfalls and economic growth nexus: a panel analysis for Africa

We employed fixed effects model to study the influences of natural resource windfalls and some variables on African economic development. For each growth model, equations were estimated for the full panel, and for the samples with good and bad institutional structures. The outcomes show that resource curse exists in Africa and can be explained by Africa's lack of good institutional structures. Hence, an implication of the results is that good institutions promote economic growth but bad institutions destroy an economy. Therefore, we first recommend the need to improve institutional quality in Africa. Second, the challenge of attaining rapid and sustainable growth and development requires Africans to strengthen and re-enforce anti-corruption laws that could discourage the further spread of corruption. Third, policymakers should ensure short-and-long term opportunities of diversifying the economy by engaging in agriculture, transportation, and services.