National Vote Research Articles

Can a religious-niche party change – or was Kirchheimer right? Analysing the Finnish Christians’ search to become a catchall electoral party

ABSTRACT Small-party persistence is a story in itself, especially when the party in question emerged as an entirely new party, lacked societal rootedness and did not boast any recognisable persons among its founding figures. The particular case is the Finnish Christian League SKL (from 2001 Christian Democrats KD), one of a family of post-Second World War fundamentalist Christian parties in the Nordic region which, over the six decades of its existence, has, unlike its Swedish and Danish counterparts, consistently surpassed the threshold of representation, but only once gained over 5 per cent of the national vote. This article asks firstly: What factors would account for SKL/KD’s persistence as a small party? Secondly, why has SKL/KD remained a small party despite efforts to expand its electoral base? Was Kirchheimer correct that certain types of party simply cannot become catchall parties? Kirchheimer, it is argued, was essentially right: SKL/KD’s ‘nicheness’ has been its greatest electoral strength but also the greatest barrier to electoral growth and significant party change.

Electoral Double-Bind: How Electoral Environments Affect Racial and Ethnic Youth Voting Behavior

AbstractPrevious research on the voting propensity of young Americans has largely treated the effects of state electoral laws as homogenous, despite today’s youth belonging to the most racially and ethnically diverse age cohort to date. Research has documented differences in participatory resources across racial, ethnic, and age groups, with recent work also suggesting differences in racial and ethnic identity influences across age groups. These factors may lead to significant differences in voter turnout under different state electoral environments. Using the Current Population Survey (2000–2016), national voter rolls (2012), and the Cost of Voting Index, this study investigates how the intersectionality of age and racial/ethnic identification affect voting decisions across state electoral environments. Whether comparing young voters across racial/ethnic identifications or comparing young voters to their older racial/ethnic counterparts, results strongly support the assertion that young voters are affected to differing degrees by increased costs to vote along racial/ethnic lines.

The politics of velomobility: Analysis of the vote to include cycling in the Swiss Constitution

In 2018, Swiss citizens voted for fostering cycling to be included in the Swiss Constitution. This national vote and a post-vote survey among a representative sample of citizens bring insight into the varying propensity to support cycling among the population. The main explanatory factor is participants’ current cycling practices: cyclists were much more likely to vote positively, as they are more aware of the lack of infrastructure. Non-cyclists were more reluctant, perhaps because they do not wish to challenge the dominant system of automobility. The second most important factor is a right–left political gradient. People on the left were more likely to vote positively and to agree with the arguments for the inclusion of cycling in the Constitution (safety, reduction of congestion, environmental and health benefits), while people on the right were more likely to agree with counterarguments (cycling network already excellent, federalism, unfair to foster cycling). Support for the vote did not vary significantly between social classes, ages or residential contexts. Women, who cycle less than men, voted more in favor and were more concerned about safety, which may be interpreted as a latent demand to cycle. A desire to “catch up” was also observed on the regional level: cantons with a low modal share of cycling were characterized by a higher acceptance rate.

The United States: Political Developments and Data in 2021

AbstractPolitics in the United States in 2021 was dominated by four major events and two non‐events, setting the stage for what was likely to be an acrimonious 2022. The major events were the storming of the Capitol and the inauguration of a new President, both in January, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August, and ongoing conflicts surrounding Covid‐19. The non‐events were the (non‐)passage of Joe Biden's Build Back Better plan and national voting rights legislation. The continuing drama concerned investigations arising from the Capitol riot, Supreme Court reconsideration of established law about libel and abortion, and challenges to redistricting based on the 2020 census as well as other electoral legislation, all in the run‐up to the 2022 election.

Making National Voter Registration Day a Course Assignment

Making National Voter Registration Day a Course Assignment

“Land Expropriation without Compensation:” Populist Political Charade and Electioneering Slogan in South Africa’s 2019 National Elections

Land expropriation without compensation in South Africa has dominated the political landscape for the 2019 national elections. The African National Congress (ANC), as the ruling party, jumped onto the radical land policy bandwagon devoid of pragmatism, whilst being aware of the complexities attended to the implementation of such a policy framework. Whereas the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) was radical and populist in its approach, the ANC merely exploited “land expropriation without compensation” in order to arrest electoral underperformance. This paper argues that the ANC’s adoption of this electioneering stance was an absurd charade that sought to create a respectable appearance as a former liberation movement that reserved ownership of the Freedom Charter and the National Democratic Revolution (NDR). Inevitably, there was controversy surrounding political electioneering plagiarism between the ANC and the EFF, which was not surprising because the latter’s leadership was schooled within the former’s ideology. The EFF could afford to be reckless in its land policy whilst the ANC had to be moderate and sensible in order to preserve food security and the economy. This paper demonstrates that the radical land policy appears to have increased the EFF’s share of national votes in May 2019 whilst the ANC continued to experience a downward spiral of its electoral performance, with its national votes count dropping below 58%. The paper argues that the ANC took notice of this historical trend of electoral underperformance and usurped the EFF’s radical land policy for 2019 campaign, only to revert back to its moderate approach when confronted with the requirement for constitutional amendments. Using a literary analysis approach, the paper demonstrates that the ANC’s 2019 electioneering platform was a political charade that papered over the years of the governing party’s failure to achieve respectable land reform. The paper concludes that the ANC’s drop to below 47% in the national vote count during the November 01, 2021 local government elections is the clearest evidence that its fiddling with the EFF political agenda will not arrest its trend of electoral underperformance.

People's History in the Age of Populism

Why write people's histories in our age of populism? Much of the original appeal of the genre derived from the marginality its subject once occupied in public life. Ordinary lives were hardly mentioned in school textbooks; popular culture was assigned to the bottom of the nation's hierarchy of values; and popular politics was either criminalised or disciplined to fit national voting patterns in states ruled by bullet and ballot alike. Defining the people naturally set the fault lines between liberal, conservative and socialist practitioners of the genre. J.R. Green's late nineteenth-century prototype – A Short History of the English People – presented a liberal story of social change, from the landing of Hengist to the battle of Waterloo. It incorporated the entirety of social life mushrooming beneath the deeds of kings, in all its evolutionary splendor. On the continent, notably in Central and Eastern Europe, the people would often feature in ethnic garb, in histories of national liberation or imperial projection. Yet it was Marxism, broadly conceived, that provided the most enduring template for people's histories, at least in the Anglosphere, from A.L. Morton's pioneering A People's History of England onwards. Extended beyond strictly national boundaries to topics such as modern Europe or even the world, two recent people's histories written in this vein, both taking their motto from Brecht's Fragen eines lesenden Arbeiters, filter their subject through class struggle and offer a narrative of freedom from want in which a vast labouring multitude toils, suffers and rebels across ages. However, political outlook and epistemological commitments aside, for the past century people's history has claimed to restore to the people its own past, often one of misery at the hands of elites yet one all the more dignified for that reason. Do any of these coordinates still obtain today? Is not the current glorification of ordinary lives, popular culture and politics the bread and butter of populism?

BATAS AMBANG PENCALONAN PRESIDENTIAL THRESHOLD YANG SEHARUSNYA 0%

Presidential Threshold as the threshold for the vote acquisition that must be obtained by political parties in an election to be able to nominate a presidential candidate. The rule for the presidential nomination threshold (presidential threshold) of 20%-25% in the Law on the Implementation of General Elections, is the result of a product of democracy in the House of Representatives. The 20 percent presidential nomination threshold should be being challenged to the Constitutional Court (MK) with the hope of being zero percent. It is believed that the zero percent presidential threshold will not bring up hundreds of presidential candidates. The requirements for presidential candidacy have been regulated in the 1945 Constitution, which is carried out by political parties. The provisions regarding the number of seats and the number of valid national votes that are a requirement to be able to nominate pairs of candidates for president and vice president always change every time an election is held. In the 2019 general election, the regulation regarding the Presidential Threshold is based on the provisions contained in Article 222 of the Election Law which states that: Candidate pairs are proposed by a political party or coalition of political parties participating in the election who meet the requirements for obtaining seats of at least 20% (twenty percent) of the total number of seats. the number of seats in the DPR or obtain 25% (twenty five percent) of the nationally valid votes in the previous election for members of the DPR.Keywords: Nomination Threshold, Presidential Threshold.

THE POWER OF SMALL EU MEMBER STATES AFTER BREXIT: HOW POWERFUL IS THE VISEGRAD GROUP?

The power of individual EU Member States has been changing over the past decades as a result of revisions to the voting systems and the enlargements of the European Union. The present article analyses the development of the voting power of individual Member States in the Council of the European Union before and after the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union. We use the calculation of the standardized Banzhaf power index to calculate the legislative power of the Member States. The calculations recorded in the table point to changes in the weights of national votes caused by Brexit. The article pays special attention to the Visegrad Group, which we define within the European Union as an informal group consisting of four Central European states - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic. The results indicate a significant growth of the voting power in Poland and more moderate growth in the other three Visegrad Group countries which contributes to the shift in the voting equilibrium within the ordinary legislative procedure of the European Union.

Pilihan Sistem Pemilu Dan Potret Keterwakilan Perempuan

As a mechanism that turns voter preference into seats, the electoral system may have impact on women’s representation. Using qualitative methods through documentary study and analysis based on national vote recapitulation data, it is known that the simultaneous electoral system in Indonesia in 2019 provides a separate dilemma for women’s representation. Based on national recapitulation data, it is known that the potential of women elected in 2019 rose to 20.52 percent. However, this increase cannot be classified as a significant increase because elected women are still dominated by those from elite kinship. In addition, several elements of the electoral system such as the time of implementation, the district magnitude, the used of Pure Sainte Lague Formula and the stagnation of the affirmation policy make women have to work harder in the electoral districts to get as many votes as possible according to the laws of the Sainte Lague Pure formula. Therefore, this study suggests a commitment between political elements to be able to create a female- friendly electoral system so that the meaningful and substantive women representation can be achieved. In doing so, I recommend to consider the closed-PR List System and a voluntary gender quota within the party as the next electoral engineering.

Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation

This paper exploits cross-sectional variation at the level of U.S. counties to generate real-time forecasts for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The forecasting models are trained on data covering the period 2000–2016, using high-dimensional variable selection techniques. Our county-based approach contrasts the literature that focuses on national and state level data but uses longer time periods to train their models. The paper reports forecasts of popular and electoral college vote outcomes and provides a detailed ex-post evaluation of the forecasts released in real time before the election. It is shown that all of these forecasts outperform autoregressive benchmarks. A pooled national model using One-Covariate-at-a-time-Multiple-Testing (OCMT) variable selection significantly outperformed all models in forecasting the U.S. mainland national vote share and electoral college outcomes (forecasting 236 electoral votes for the Republican party compared to 232 realized). This paper also shows that key determinants of voting outcomes at the county level include incumbency effects, unemployment, poverty, educational attainment, house price changes, and international competitiveness. The results are also supportive of myopic voting: economic fluctuations realized a few months before the election tend to be more powerful predictors of voting outcomes than their long-horizon analogs.

Transnationalism with Multi-Leveled Actors: A Systematic Review of Studies on Overseas Koreans’ Voting

COVID-19 has affected several aspects of people’s lives, including overseas voting by Koreans overseas. Compared to the high national voter turnout for Korea’s 21st legislative elections (62.6%), the voter turnout among overseas Koreans was only 23.8%, the lowest since the inception of overseas voting in 2012. However, no study has systematically reviewed prior studies on overseas voting through the framework of political transnationalism with multilevel actors. By reviewing articles published between 2012 and 2020 that explore overseas Koreans’ voting in their home country’s election, this study aims to categorize studies at different levels and suggest policy implications and future directions for research that could contribute toward filling the gaps in the existing literature. The methods of overseas voting need to be diversified to adequately prepare for any exogenous shocks, such as COVID-19, during the upcoming election periods.

Дискусії стосовно національного питання політичного устрою та координації антисамодержавних сил у Російській імперії на Паризькій конференції революційних та опозиційних партій (30 вересня – 9 жовтня 1904 р.)

The study covers the consideration of the national question in the Russian Empire at the Paris Conference of Russian Opposition and Revolutionary Parties, to analyze the published minutes of work and the final declaration. In the context of considering inter-ethnic relations in the Russian Empire, it is especially important to trace the views of the conference participants on the socialist-revolutionary projects of a possible reorganization of the Romanov’s despotism into a federal state, with broad autonomy of national territorial units and universal voting rite for all citizens. The research methodology is based on the principles of concrete-historical approach or historicism, objectivity, comprehensiveness and integrity, systematics, as well as the use of methods – analysis and synthesis, historical-comparative, historical-typological, and problem-chronological. The scientific novelty lies in the fact that for the first time in the historiography of the Socialist Party of Revolutionaries the national question was covered in detail at an interparty conference in Paris and the main contradictions in views on Russia’s post-revolutionary system between national socialist parties and SRs were analyzed. Conclusions. The Paris Conference served as the first platform for inter-party discussions between Russian liberals and socialists, but differences in their programs on the national question prevented them from developing concrete tactics and agreeing on joint steps to overthrow the autocracy. It resulted only in general political agreements on the establishment of a free democratic regime in Russia on the basis of free voting and the right of nations to self-determination, expressed in a joint declaration.

Did Gary Johnson and Jill Stein Cost Hillary Clinton the Presidency? A Counterfactual Analysis of Minor Party Voting in the 2016 US Presidential Election

Abstract Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote for president in 2016, but lost to Donald Trump in the Electoral College. Trump’s margin of victory in several decisive battleground states was smaller than the combined vote for the two leading minor party candidates: Gary Johnson, of the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party. The perception that Johnson and Stein “stole” the 2016 presidential election from Clinton is widespread, and potentially consequential for future minor party candidacies, but it has not yet been rigorously tested. In this article, we extend the analysis of minor party voting in the 1992 election from Lacy, D., and B. C. Burden. 1999. “The Vote-Stealing and Turnout Effects of Ross Perot in the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election.” American Journal of Political Science 43 (1): 233–55, by using data from the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to estimate a multinomial probit model of voting behavior—including outcomes for vote choice and abstention—and calculate the predicted probabilities that Johnson and Stein voters would have voted for another candidate or abstained from voting, had one or both of these candidates been excluded from the ballot. We then reallocate Johnson’s and Stein’s votes accordingly, to estimate Clinton’s and Trump’s counterfactual vote shares nationally and within key battleground states. Our analysis indicates that Johnson and Stein did not deprive Clinton of an Electoral College majority, nor Trump the legitimacy of winning the national popular vote. We estimate that most Johnson and Stein voters would have abstained from voting if denied the choice to vote for their preferred candidate, and that most of Johnson’s remaining voters would have supported Trump.

The neighbourhood effect in economic voting: the association between local unemployment figures and national economic perceptions and incumbent voting in Belgium, 2009–2019

ABSTRACT While economic voting theory assumes that voters respond to economic conditions, critics have argued that most voters lack an adequate understanding of key national economic indicators. In this paper, we investigate the occurrence of a neighbourhood effect, where citizens can observe unemployment levels in their own local communities. Using both official statistics and survey data of three recent election studies in Belgium, we assess whether local unemployment levels are associated with the assessment of the national economy, and incumbent voting. While the results show that the local unemployment level is strongly associated with the assessment of the national economy, results regarding a direct association with supporting incumbent political parties are mixed. We argue that the neighbourhood effect is an important mechanism in economic voting, as citizens react to a neighbourhood effect in their assessment of the state of the national economy.

Religious Discrimination, Diaspora, and United Nations Voting on Israel

AbstractThis study examines whether discrimination against religious minorities and diaspora politics influences United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting on Israel and the Israeli–Palestinian conflict between 1990 and 2014. We test discrimination against Jews, discrimination against Muslims, and general discrimination against all religious minorities in 183 countries. Our results indicate that repressive countries vote against Israel in the UNGA partly as a diversionary tactic seeking to divert attention from their own poor behavior. This is because discriminating against both Jews and Muslims, as well as religious discrimination in general, predict anti-Israel voting. We also find that countries with larger Jewish minorities are more likely to support Israel and countries with larger Muslim minorities are less likely to support Israel, although the latter effect is more conditional and most consistently pronounced in countries where discrimination against Muslims is low. This suggests that diaspora politics and transnational religious ties influence UNGA voting on Israel.

Values, Partisan Interest, and the Voting Age: Lessons from Australia

The decline in youth participation in elections has been an ongoing concern in Australia, in spite of the requirement for compulsory turnout. In 2018, and in response to these concerns, the Australian parliament debated an electoral amendment that would lower the national voting age to 16 years. The Bill, however, did not succeed even though two opposition parties—the Australian Labor Party and the Australian Greens—supported the reform and the Morrison Government accepted the premise that youth electoral disengagement was a troubling phenomenon. Drawing on veto player theory, this article examines how the legislative dynamics intersected with partisan self‐interest and party value priorities to undercut the case for lowering the voting age to 16. The Australian case highlights the ways in which latent ideological differences among parties can serve to divide them on the inclusiveness of franchise, and the democratic goals to be served by voting.Related ArticlesCormack, Lindsey. 2019. “Leveraging Peer‐to‐Peer Connections to Increase Voter Participation in Local Elections.” Politics & Policy 47 (2): 248‐266. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12297Fisher, Patrick. 2020. “Generational Replacement and the Impending Transformation of the American Electorate.” Politics & Policy 48 (1): 38‐68. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12340Ike, Vivian. 2020. “The Impact of Veto Players on Incremental and Drastic Policy Making: Australia's Carbon tax Policy and its Repeal.” Politics & Policy 48 (2): 232‐264. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12346

Strategi Meningkatkan Partisipasi Masyarakat Dalam Pilkada Serentak 2020 di Masa Pandemi Covid-19

This article will discuss the covid-19 pandemic has become one of the most serious problems in holding the 2020 simultaneous regional elections. These conditions have the potential to reduce voter turnout, therefore the strategy to increase public participation needs to be implemented even more strongly. In the 2020 simultaneous regional elections, the KPU has set a national voter turnout target of 77.5%. As an effort to achieve this target, the KPU has implemented a strategy to increase public participation as voters. Qualitative methods are used in this article, and data collection techniques are used through interviews with Head of the Technical and Public Relation Subdivision of the General Election Commissin of Central Java, Dimas Dwihangga Narotama, S.IP and documentation. The results and discussion revealed that the KPU implemented a strategy of maximizing socialization through social and virtual media by holding webinars. However, in-person or face-to-face socialization is still carried out by reducing the number of activities and participants and still paying attention to health protocols. The implementation of strategies through social media or online is more dominant in efforts to increase community participation carried out by each Regency / City KPU in Central Java in the 2020 simultaneous regional elections.

The effects of voting franchise extension on education policy

ABSTRACT We study the effects of giving poor females the right to vote in local elections on education spending and teacher-student ratios. To estimate causal effects, we exploit a national voting reform in Norwegian local elections that removed socioeconomic restrictions on female voting rights. The identification strategy exploits heterogeneous changes in the share of females in the voting franchise from the pre-reform (1907) to the post-reform election (1910) across local governments. While US studies find positive effects on government spending of the introduction of female suffrage, we find no systematic effects on education spending, despite a significant increase in female turnout.

Russia’s 2020 Constitutional Reform: The Politics of Institutionalizing the Status-Quo

Abstract The articles in this issue explore the longer-term implications of Russia’s 2020 Constitutional Reform process. Assessing constitutional change from different theoretical and empirical approaches, these authors find that the constitution largely codified the status-quo as it had evolved over the past decade. The resulting institutional changes solidified the personalist political system that concentrates power in one leader. These reforms also created new mechanisms to preclude elite defection and generate societal quiescence. At the same time, the three-staged reform process that included formal adoption, national vote, and legal reconciliation, introduced new political risk by raising societal expectations, reinforcing cleavages through patriotic legitimization strategies, introducing new rigid structures, and relying on personalism and networks over institutional governance. These risks do not predict state failure but they suggest new challenges that will continue to shape Russian political development.