National Model System Research Articles

Preliminary Tests on the Sensitivity of the FORAIR_IT Air Quality Forecasting System to Different Meteorological Drivers

Since 2017, the operational high-resolution air quality forecasting system FORAIR_IT, developed and maintained by the Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, has been providing three-day forecasts of concentrations of atmospheric pollutants over Europe and Italy, on a daily basis, with high spatial resolution (20 km on Europe, 4 km on Italy). The system is based on the Atmospheric Modelling System of the National Integrated Assessment Model for Italy (AMS-MINNI), which is a national modelling system evaluated in several studies across Italy and Europe. AMS-MINNI, in its forecasting setup, is presently a candidate model for the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service’s regional production, dedicated to European-scale ensemble model forecasts of air quality. In order to improve the quality of the meteorological input into the chemical transport model component of FORAIR_IT, several tests were carried out on daily forecasts of NO2 and O3 concentrations for January and August 2019 (representative of the meteorological seasons of winter and summer, respectively). The aim was to evaluate the sensitivity to the meteorological input in NO2 and O3 concentration forecasting. More specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was tested to potentially improve the meteorological driver with respect to the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS), which is currently embedded in FORAIR_IT. In this work, the WRF chain is run in several setups, changing the parameterization of several micrometeorological variables (snow, mixing height, albedo, roughness length, soil heat flux + friction velocity, Monin–Obukhov length), with the main objective being to take advantage of WRF’s consistent physics in the calculation of both mesoscale variables and micrometeorological parameters for air quality simulations. Daily forecast concentrations produced by the different meteorological model configurations are compared to the available measured concentrations, showing the general good performance of WRF-driven results, even if performance skills are different according to the single meteorological configuration and to the pollutant type. WRF-driven forecasts clearly improve the model reproduction of the temporal variability of concentrations, while the bias of O3 is higher than in the RAMS-driven configuration. The results suggest that we should keep testing WRF configurations, with the objective of obtaining a robust improvement in forecast concentrations with respect to RAMS-driven forecasts.

Hierarchical Transport Models In The Netherlands

The Netherlands has a few decades of experience with hierarchical transport models. They originate from limits of computation in the past and even present. Hierarchical transport models are used at different spatial scales. Their main goal is to keep consistency between the spatial scales. An example is the Dutch National Model System (NMS) and the Netherlands Regional Models (NRM). These were developed in the nineties and updated and further developed several times since then. While these models already exist for about thirty years, only since the last ten to fifteen years activities have been undertaken to make these models more consistent, both concerning their inputs such as base matrix, networks and socio-economic data as their modelling techniques. The reason for making the models more consistent stems from the fact that the models showed different results for the same parts of the road networks and matrix values as well. This situation led to unreliable results, delays in the planning process and extra costs. In order to avoid this situation, the NMS and NRM have been aligned. This improvement played and continues to play an important role between the national and regional level (the Netherlands is partitioned in four regions).Similar problems consist for the interface between the provinces (12) and the areas from which they are built up. Since about ten years a further step in hierarchic transport modelling has been made at the level of provinces. Using a province wide modelling approach, attempts were made to align the transport models of provinces with those from the different sub-regions or municipalities in the provinces. Some attempts were successful, while other attempts failed. Different causes can be mentioned, both concerning the organization as the models themselves.The Province of Noord-Brabant had a successful attempt to build a hierarchical transport model. Both concerning the model system as the organization the hierarchical transport model BBMA can be regarded as a good suite of models with one top transport model for the entire province and four regional models to serve the regions in more detail with results. The first model was realized in 2013. Currently a further improvement of this hierarchical model system is at its final stage of development, featuring even more consistent results on all levels.The paper addresses the hierarchical transport models from a historic perspective by looking at the NMS and NRM, the modelling approach used in different provinces and more specifically the Noord-Brabant hierarchical model. It deals with the problems that have been encountered in the past as well as with the current hierarchical transport model that has been built for the Province of Noord-Brabant. We will provide an overview of both Noord-Brabant models and the way they relate to each other, the problems that had to be solved (such as consistency and flexibility on data, method and results) as well as the way the Province has organized the hierarchical transport model BBMA (such as collaboration between the different stakeholders).

Accessibility modeling and evaluation: The TIGRIS XL land-use and transport interaction model for the Netherlands

In current practice, transportation planning often ignores the effects of major transportation improvements on land use and the distribution of land use activities, which might affect the accessibility impacts and economic efficiency of the transportation investment strategies. In this paper, we describe the model specification and application of the land use transport interaction model TIGRIS XL for the Netherlands. The TIGRIS XL land-use and transport interaction model can internationally be positioned among the recursive or quasi-dynamic land-use and transport interaction models. The National Model System, the main transport model used in Dutch national transport policy making and evaluation, is fully integrated in the modeling framework. Accessibility modeling and evaluation are disaggregated and fully consistent, which is not common in accessibility modeling research. Logsum accessibility measures estimated by the transport model are used as explanatory variables for the residential and firm location modules and as indicators in policy evaluations, expressing accessibility benefits expressed in monetary terms. Modeling results indicate that accessibility changes from transport investments in the Netherlands have a significant but modest positive influence on the location choice of residents and firms. This is probably mainly due to the spatial structure and already dense and well developed transport networks, and the large influence of national, regional and local governments on the Dutch land use markets.

Benzo[a]pyrene modelling over Italy: comparison with experimental data and source apportionment

This work describes the extension of the Flexible Air quality Regional Model (FARM) to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Modules accounting for the partitioning of these species between gaseous and particulate phases were inserted in a simplified version of the model and in a more state–of–the–art configuration implementing the SAPRC99 gas–phase chemical mechanism coupled with the aero3 aerosol module. Both versions of FARM were applied over Italy for the year 2005. The analysis of model results was focused on benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P), which is considered a marker substance for the carcinogenic risk of PAHs. Simulated B[a]P concentrations were compared with observed data, collected at background sites mainly located in Po Valley, and with concentrations produced at continental scale by EMEP/MSC–E model. Higher B[a]P yearly average concentrations were simulated by the national modelling system as a result of different factors: the higher resolution adopted by the national modelling system, the greater Italian emissions estimated by the national inventory and the effects induced by the use of a high resolution topography on meteorological fields and thus on the dispersion of pollutants. The comparison between observed and predicted monthly averaged concentrations evidenced the capability of the two versions of FARM model to capture the seasonal behaviour of B[a]P, characterised by higher values during the winter season due to the large use of wood for residential heating, enhanced by lower dispersion atmospheric conditions. The statistical analysis evidenced, for both versions of the model, a good performance and better indicators than those associated to EMEP/MSC–E simulations. A source apportionment was then carried out using the simplified version of the model, which proved to perform similarly to the full chemistry version but with the advantage to be computationally less expensive. The analysis revealed a significant influence of national sources on B[a]P concentrations, with non–industrial combustion employing wood burning devices being the most important sector. The contribution of the industrial sectors is relevant around major industrial facilities, with the largest absolute contribution in Taranto (above 1ng m−3), where steel industries are the largest individual source of PAHs in the country.

Obesity and Inpatient Rehabilitation Outcomes for Patients With a Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury

Stenson KW, Deutsch A, Heinemann AW, Chen D. Obesity and inpatient rehabilitation outcomes for patients with a traumatic spinal cord injury. Objective To examine the effect of obesity on change in FIM self-care and mobility ratings and community discharge for patients with traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI). Design Retrospective cohort study analyzing National Model Systems SCI Database data. Setting Fourteen Model Systems SCI programs. Participants Patients (N=1524) with a new traumatic SCI discharged from Model Systems rehabilitation centers between October 2006 and October 2009. Interventions None. Main Outcome Measures Change in FIM self-care and mobility ratings, discharge destination. Separate analyses were conducted by neurologic category: paraplegia incomplete, paraplegia complete, tetraplegia incomplete, and tetraplegia complete. Results Of all patients with traumatic SCI, approximately 25% were obese at admission. Patients who were obese were more likely to be married and slightly older than nonobese patients. In patients with paraplegia incomplete, obese patients had lower FIM self-care (−1.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], −3.4 to −.4) and mobility score gains (−1.5; 95% CI, −2.9 to −.1) than normal-weight patients. For patients with paraplegia complete, obese patients had significantly lower self-care (−2.2; 95% CI, −3.5 to −.8) and mobility score gains (−2.7; 95% CI, −3.9 to −1.5). For patients with tetraplegia incomplete and tetraplegia complete, FIM self-care and mobility ratings for obese patients were not significantly different from ratings for normal-weight patients. Within each neurologic category, the percentage of patients discharged to the community was not significantly different for nonobese and obese patients. Conclusions Obesity appears to be a barrier to meeting self-care and mobility functional goals for patients with paraplegia in inpatient SCI rehabilitation.

The development of the TIGRIS XL model: A bottom-up approach to transport, land-use and the economy

The project appraisal method in the Netherlands distinguishes direct effects, indirect distribution effects and indirect generative effects. Transport models are generally available for calculating the benefits of transport projects to travellers as part of the direct effects. The TIGRIS XL model, a Land-Use and Transport Interaction model, adds indirect distribution effects for the housing and labour market, by modelling changes in the spatial distribution of jobs and residents. This paper describes the current TIGRIS XL model and how it can be applied in the evaluation of transport projects. It refers to work done with the TIGRIS XL model to improve the calculation of the direct benefits by applying the so-called ‘logsum’ method. Finally it discusses ideas on how to extend the TIGRIS XL model to address indirect generative effects as well. The current TIGRIS XL model, its integration with the National Model System (the standard tool for the Dutch government to analyse the effects on passenger transport) and basic design principles are the starting point of such an exploration. These design principles include: • an emphasis on detail, both spatial as well as in socio-economic segments, to account for differences in the availability of choice alternatives and in choice behaviour, and to provide impacts by region and socio-economic group; • the requirement that the relationships used rest on an empirical foundation. The post-processing methods proposed on this paper for the calculation of the direct benefits and indirect generative effects are consistent with these design principles. To calculate the indirect generative effects, a post-processing module is proposed which transforms changes in travel times and land-use into agglomeration effects. These agglomeration effects combine several of the generative effects, like scale economies, an increasing variety of products, labour market matches and knowledge spill-over. The effects of changes in the agglomeration indicator on productivity can be estimated with existing data sources, as was demonstrated in the UK ( Graham, 2005).

The Usefulness of Transport Models in Swedish Planning Practice

This paper presents some experience from using transport models in Swedish planning practice. First we outline three recent examples of planning settings in which transport models have been put to extensive use. For the Swedish ‘national’ transport plan for the period 2010–2021, which was recently finished, the national transport model SAMPERS was used to compute costs and benefits for many investment projects. The second example concerns the ‘regional’ plan for Stockholm, where a similar but less detailed model, LuTRANS, was used to investigate different transport and land use scenarios. The third example discusses a recent study on the feasibility of introducing congestion charges in Gothenburg, where both a fixed demand approach and SAMPERS were used. Furthermore, the paper tries to help identify what model development can do to help improve the production of decision support through modelling. We argue that effectiveness and efficiency are key. The first is characterized by making sure that the right things are done and that they are done right. Efficiency, which is less often discussed in the literature, is framed in terms of doing things on time and doing them only once. The managing organization around a national model system can play an important role in helping users avoid redundant work. It is also a good idea to resist the temptation to use up all improvements in computing power for additional model features. There are many worthwhile analyses that are never done because of time constraints.

The logsum as an evaluation measure: Review of the literature and new results

The logsum is a measure of consumer surplus in the context of logit choice models. In spite of the very frequent use of logit models in transport, project assessment is only rarely done using logsums. Instead in project evaluation or appraisal, changes in transport costs and time (borrowing values of time from some source) are commonly used to get the traveller benefits. The paper contains a review of the theoretical and applied literature on the use of logsums as a measure of consumer surplus change in project appraisal and evaluation. It then goes on to describe a case study with the Dutch National Model System for transport in which the logsum method and the commonly used value of time method are compared for a specific project (high speed trains that would connect the four main cities in the Randstad: Amsterdam, The Hague, Rotterdam and Utrecht).

Ethnographic analysis of traumatic brain injury patients in the national Model Systems database

Burnett DM, Kolakowsky-Hayner SA, Slater D, Stringer A, Bushnik T, Zafonte R, Cifu DX. Ethnographic analysis of traumatic brain injury patients in the national Model Systems database. Arch Phys Med Rehabil 2003;84:263-7. Objective: To compare demographics, injury characteristics, therapy service and intensity, and outcome in minority versus nonminority patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Design: Retrospective analysis. Setting: Twenty medical centers. Participants: Two thousand twenty patients (men, n=1518; women, n=502; nonminority, n=1168; minority, n=852) with TBI enrolled in the Traumatic Brain Injury Model Systems database. Interventions: Not applicable. Main Outcome Measures: Age, gender, marital status, education, employment status, injury severity (based on Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] admission score, length of posttraumatic amnesia, duration of unconsciousness), intensity (hours) of therapy rendered, rehabilitation length of stay (LOS), rehabilitation charges, discharge disposition, postinjury employment status, FIM[trade ] instrument change scores, and FIM efficiency scores. Independent sample t tests were used to analyze continuous variables; chi-square analyses were used to evaluate categorical data. Results: Demographics: overall, minorities were found to be mostly young men who were single, unemployed, and less well educated, with a longer work week if employed when injured. Etiology: motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) predominated as the cause of injury for both groups; however, minorities were more likely to sustain injury from acts of violence and auto-versus-pedestrian crashes. Minorities also had higher GCS scores on admission and shorter LOS. Rehabilitation services: significant differences were found in the types and intensity of rehabilitation services provided; these included physical therapy, occupational therapy, and speech-language pathology, but not psychology. Conclusion: Minority patients who sustain TBI generally tend to be young men with less social responsibility. Although MVCs predominate as the primary etiology, acts of violence and auto-versus-pedestrian incidents are more common in the minority population. Minorities tend to have higher GCS scores at admission. Also, the type and intensity of rehabilitation services provided differed significantly for the various interdisciplinary subspecialties. Rehabilitation charges, discharge disposition, and postinjury employment status were similar for the 2 groups, even though LOS is typically 3 to 4 days shorter for the minority group. A more detailed investigation is warranted to explain these findings. [copy ] 2003 by the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine and the American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation

Income Effects of Reducing Agricultural Pollution

The value and quantity of agricultural commodity production in various regions of the United States determines farmers' income in each region. Many farmers, businessmen, policy makers and administrators are concerned with the problem of change in farm income resulting from water quality restraints placed on cropland agriculture. This study evaluates the income change from a series of hypothetical national water quality policies by examining the changes in national and regional gross farm income. Long-run changes in total national income of controlling water pollution from farmland by soil loss restraints are relatively small, as aggregate gross income increases by four to six percent depending on the level of control studied.The changes in regional gross farm income are more extreme since various regions of the country, including the southern states, are affected differently by potential water quality control. This study utilizes a national modeling system to examine these variables and reports an analysis of potential changes in gross farm income caused by environmental restraints placed on agriculture. Environmental goals analyzed are national soil conservation ones, with implications for national and regional farm incomes.