National Economic Accounting Research Articles

Nowcasting of advance estimates of personal consumption of Services in the U.S. National Economic Accounts: Individual vs forecasting combination approach

AbstractAs part of continuing effort to research statistical methods for producing timely and accurate early estimates of national accounts statistics, this paper evaluates the ability of individual nowcasting and forecast combination techniques to reduce revisions in the first or advance estimates of U.S. quarterly personal consumption of services at the most detailed component level. At such a level, designated indicators for advance estimates are those directly relevant to the detailed components. Using the same indicators that were used in routine compilations, we show in a real time setting that nowcasting methods are able to reduce revisions in the advance estimates in over 90 percent of the detailed components, and the upper bound of the reductions reached over 60 percent. We evaluate the performances of all methods by comparing their root mean squared revisions for each component. Our study suggests that nowcasting techniques are potentially a powerful tool to reduce revisions in the early estimates in the national account statistics at the most detailed level.

Input-output Table and Input-output Model of Import and Export Internalization

Abstract This paper reviews the traditional input-output models and analyzes their potential problems and preliminary improvement research. According to the principle of the national economic accounting system, foreign departments are added in the first quadrant of the traditional input-output table. The biochemical input-output model of import and export solves the import and export problems that have plagued the input-output research, and integrates and expands the advantages of import tabulation matrix, MRIO and other tables and models. It has laid a solid foundation for correctly using input-output data to analyze national economy, regional economy and global economy. JEL classification numbers: E16. Keywords: Import, Export, Input-output Table, Input-output Model, Foreign Sector.

Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions.

This issue addresses the multifaceted problems of understanding biodiversity change to meet emerging international development and conservation goals, national economic accounting and diverse community needs. Recent international agreements highlight the need to establish monitoring and assessment programmes at national and regional levels. We identify an opportunity for the research community to develop the methods for robust detection and attribution of biodiversity change that will contribute to national assessments and guide conservation action. The 16 contributions of this issue address six major aspects of biodiversity assessment: connecting policy to science, establishing observation, improving statistical estimation, detecting change, attributing causes and projecting the future. These studies are led by experts in Indigenous studies, economics, ecology, conservation, statistics, and computer science, with representations from Asia, Africa, South America, North America and Europe. The results place biodiversity science in the context of policy needs and provide an updated roadmap for how to observe biodiversity change in a way that supports conservation action via robust detection and attribution science. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Intangible assets and transactions within multinational enterprises : implications for national economic accounts

Transactions involving intangible assets within multinational enterprises impose challenges for national economic accountants. In light of the challenges, recent research at the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis aims to identify areas for improving the treatment of multinational enterprises in national economic accounts. This paper summarizes the work and demonstrates implications for gross domestic product – the most widely cited measure in national economic accounts – of the United States.

EXPERIENCE OF TECHNICAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL SUPPORT OF AGRICULTURE IN THE SOUTHERN URALS: FROM MACHINE AND TRACTOR STATIONS TO SCIENTIFIC AND PRODUCTION FACILITIES

The efficiency of the use of the machine and tractor fleet in agriculture depends on the degree of development of education, science and production in the country. It was these three structures that were rapidly developed in the early 30s of the XX century in the agrarian region, which was the Southern Urals. (Research purpose) The research purpose is analyzing the technical and technological support of agriculture in the Southern Urals, using the experience of operating machine and tractor stations. (Materials and methods) Analyzed the documents of the Russian State Archive of Socio-Political History, statistical yearbooks of the Chelyabinsk Regional Department of National Economic Accounting, chronicles of districts and cities of the Chelyabinsk region. (Results and discussion) We have identified at each historical stage of the development of agriculture in the Southern Urals the main tasks that faced the machine and tractor stations. It was shown that the reasons for the low efficiency of the tractor columns were the inconsistency of the work plans of the detachments with the plans of the collective farms; the variety of models of tractors of domestic and imported production used in the fields; the lack of qualified labor for the maintenance and operation of agricultural machinery. The tasks set by the agro-industrial complex for education, science and production were identified, which consisted in the development of new agrotechnical methods of tillage, the creation of a system of frequency of planned and major repairs, increasing the number and nomenclature of spare parts for agricultural machinery produced by factories, the introduction of a system of training and retraining of personnel for agricultural production, improving labor organization. (Conclusions) Machine and tractor stations not only played an important role in the technical and technological support of agriculture in the Southern Urals, but also were able to develop their potential to the level of scientific and technical productions that produce automated lines for the restoration of worn-out parts of agricultural machinery.

Analysis and Research on the Influencing Factors of Regional CPI Based on CVM-AHP Coupling Perspective

The consumer price index (CPI) is a statistical indicator to measure the macroeconomic development of a region. Studying the influencing factors of regional CPI is helpful to deeply explore the mechanism of CPI change, and then help to measure inflation, national economic accounting, and contract indexation adjustment. In this paper, the coefficient of variation method (CVM) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to determine the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation factors, and the coupling weights are calculated based on the Lagrange multiplier method. Shanghai, China, is selected for empirical analysis to evaluate the suitability of CPI influencing factors in the study area. The results show that regional CPI is closely related to population size, population density, the proportion of the elderly population, urban resident population, GDP, per capita disposable income, PPI, and fixed asset investment. Among them, GDP, per capita disposable income, and fixed asset investment have the most prominent impact on CPI. The proportion of the elderly population and PPI have a more obvious impact, and the impact of population size, population density, and urban resident population is not obvious. The research on the influencing factors of regional CPI in this paper is of great practical significance to explore the causes of China's inflation and formulate reasonable macroeconomic policies.

Prediction and Industrial Structure Analysis of Local GDP Economy Based on Machine Learning

The process of regional economic growth is a long-term evolutionary law. During this long evolutionary process, some regions may continue to grow, while others may fall into decline. It takes a long time. For example, from the perspective of our country’s regional economic growth since the turn of the century, the east coast has been in a relatively developed state, while the economy of some western regions is relatively backward. Therefore, how to promote the long-term growth of developed regions and revitalize the troubled regional economy by studying the long-term growth mechanism of the regional economy is an important topic of regional economic research. In this context, we can draw the following conclusions. (1) The employment structure of major industries has been declining year by year since 2000, and this trend is relatively obvious and the decline is relatively large. Despite some changes in industrial growth, the overall trend is upward. The employment structure of the service industry has increased year by year, and its proportion in total employment usually exceeds that of major industries, and it is the industry with the largest number of employees. (2) The accuracy under the machine learning model is 79.46%, the reliability is 89.27%, and it is feasible; the accuracy under the data mining model is 68.45%, the reliability is 75.43%, and the feasibility is 86.18%; the accuracy rate under the traditional statistical model is 60.14%, the feasibility is 68.24%, and the reliability is 75.12%. GDP not only is the core indicator of national economic accounting but also can be used to measure the economic status and development level of a country or region. The impact of industrial structure on GDP is huge, and a suitable industrial structure can promote a healthier growth of GDP. In order to analyze the relationship between our country’s GDP and industrial structure, the quantitative analysis method of grey correlation analysis is used to study it, and then according to the calculation results, suggestions for adjusting and optimizing the industrial structure will be put forward to the relevant ministries.

Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Ecological Industry and Ecological Investment on the Economy: A Case Study of Beijing, China

As China attaches increasing importance to its ecological environment, ecology-related industries have become essential to China’s national economy. However, in the current national economic accounting practice, the ecological industry (eco-industry) is not independent, and the ecological service value ecology creates is currently not within the scope of national economic accounting. To clarify the impact of the development of the eco-industry on the whole regional economy, this paper takes Beijing as the study area. For the first time, the input–output analysis method is adopted to differentiate the eco-industry as an independent sector. Moreover, the ecosystem services value is integrated into the eco-industry, and each coefficient is quantitatively analyzed from an industrial-chain perspective. The results show that the eco-industry exerts a good pulling effect on the regional economy. The inputs and outputs of the eco-industry clearly tend to focus on eco-environmental and public-service-related industries, followed by industries for which ecological development can create value. Judging from the entire regional economy, ecological investment significantly impacts both the education and financial industries. Ecological investment can promote socio-economic development, achieving a 1.318 increase in regional GDP per unit of eco-investment. The results imply that the development of the eco-industry in China should be boosted further and social capital investment should be attracted. Finally, this paper provides a scientific basis for policymakers to better understand the overall situation of both the eco-industry and industry linkages and guide them to develop relevant ecological investment strategies.

Rural Settlements of the Ostyako-Vogul and Yamalo-Nenets National Districts in the 1930s: Location, Density, Economic and Socio-Cultural Development

The paper characterizes the location, density (density), economic and socio-cultural development of the network of rural settlements of the Ostyako-Vogul and Yamalo-Nenets national districts according to data for 1935-1936. The subject of the study is the rural settlement network of the named districts, the object is the location, density of the settlement network, its industrial, economic and socio-cultural infrastructure. In the study, statistical data collected by the Omsk Regional Department of National Economic Accounting (OBLUNKHU) were used as the main source Gosplan of the USSR on key indicators of economic and cultural development of the administrative-territorial units of the region, including the districts of North-Western Siberia. The dependence of the density of the settlement network on the natural and climatic zone, the peculiarities of the management of the local population is shown. The territories of sparse and relatively dense settlement within the boundaries of the national districts under consideration are determined, indicators of economic and socio-cultural development of settlements are presented. As results of the study author presents the conclusions about the dispersion of settlement in the polar tundra zone, the presence of territorial concentrations of rural settlements in the forest tundra and taiga zones not around administrative and economic centers, but along important transport arteries, the role of which in the north of Western Siberia was mainly performed by rivers. The predominance of the simplest industrial associations as the most common form of collective farms in the region is noted, positive changes in the development of the socio-cultural infrastructure of rural settlements of the region are recorded.

Quantitative Analysis of Internet of Things Technology on the National Economic Accounting: A Prediction Model Based on the FCM-BP Neural Network Algorithm.

The development of Internet of Things (IoT) technology is of great significance for modern financial settlements based on information technology. The IoT technology, which can provide a convenient approach for accounting, has the advantages of intelligent processing, reliable transmission, and comprehensive perception. For national economic accounting, a new integrated system for monitoring the environment is developed and designed by using embedded development technology and sensor technology. The system uses a wireless sensor network environment monitoring system IoT platform with embedded internal processors. Analyze and design the system as a whole, including the construction of the basic platform of the system, the design of the internal plates and circuits of the system, the monitoring design of the input node, and the monthly design of the output interface calculation. Finally, a physical model is built, and data measurement and analysis are carried out under different conditions, and the evaluation and advantage analysis of the system's operating status are given. The system can carry out all-round, multilevel and three-dimensional real-time monitoring of the construction site environment, including dust, PM2.5, temperature, humidity, wind speed, carbon dioxide, and other indicators in the construction site environment. In addition, the system can upload various monitoring data to the detection system through the internal network. The system has the functions of monitoring, alarming, recording, querying, and counting of the target monitoring station and can also be linked with the environmental control device. The construction site staff can conduct real-time supervision through the mobile terminal and computer terminal management platform. In addition, it can also meet the role of real-time remote monitoring and online guidance and regulation. It has reference value for the safety and management of the actual operation process of the project.

Research on Financial Accounting of GDP Index Based on Numerical Simulation

Because the traditional GDP accounting method was difficult to meet the actual needs of governments for economic and social development, aiming at the problems of unclear data sources related to GDP and inconsistent GDP accounting results in the national economic accounting system, a GDP index financial accounting method based on numerical simulation was proposed. Firstly, it summarized the traditional GDP thought and its related accounting methods and analyzed the common problems existing in the traditional GDP accounting. Secondly, it expounded the concept of green GDP and its accounting scope and theoretical model and pointed out the key problems to be solved in green GDP accounting, such as ecological resource consumption and environmental pollution cost calculation. Finally, by analyzing the relationship between green GDP and main supporting indicators, the accounting method of GDP indicators based on numerical simulation was proposed, and the accounting result detection model based on the econometric model was given. Through empirical analysis, it showed that the GDP accounting method proposed in this paper has good feasibility and effectiveness and can effectively reflect the development of the economic operation. The accounting method proposed in this paper can also provide a reference basis for the construction of a green GDP system.

Numerical Simulation-Based Model for Analyzing the Correlation between GDP Index and Quality of Life

As the information carrier of the social economy, the quality of statistical data has become more concerned and sensitive in the society and the data quality of GDP, as one of the core aggregate indicators of national economic accounting, has received more extensive attention. Government statistical departments have placed data quality in a strategic position in the development of statistical undertakings, and the assessment of GDP data quality is an important part of their data production management process. This paper uses the livelihood index to represent the survey data of quality of life level and theoretically analyzes and empirically tests the importance of improving quality of life in the current development stage, the relationship between improving people’s livelihood and economic development, and the population distribution of public service satisfaction and the influence of public service satisfaction on life satisfaction. In response to the major real-life problems in the development of economic and social quality of life, many research institutions have carried out in-depth survey and research work at various levels and in various fields, with large samples and a wide range, accumulating a large number of survey and research reports with detailed data and unique content, the same as thematic research reports with standardized analysis based on survey data. Taking mathematical economics as the basic starting point, this paper conducts an in-depth study on the relationship between GDP index and quality of life from the analysis of the operation law, inner operation mechanism, stability, and other relevant aspects of the model itself. Taking the classical endogenous economic growth model as the starting point, the endogenous theoretical nonlinear dynamical system of GDP index and quality of life, the nonlinear dynamical system of GDP index and quality of life, and the theoretical nonlinear system of GDP index and quality of life supply and demand are constructed; and the stability analysis is conducted for the constructed nonlinear dynamical system, the situation when the model starts to destabilize is discussed and the model is addressed. The theoretical analysis and numerical simulation results are presented for the conditions of existence, bifurcation direction, and stability of the bifurcation period solution of the Hopf bifurcation that may occur.

Organization of Grain Harvest Statistics in Siberia in 1930s

Harvest statistics in USSR in the 1920s was based on techniques and approaches used in Russian Empire. In 1930 it became a subject of reforms. Statistical representatives of village councils who replaced voluntary correspondents were supposed to report to the district commissions information on specific\biological yield and the results of grain threshing. Regional commissions were obliged to summarize received information, check it and make corrections to primary materials for underestimation. In the early 1930s harvest statistics were doubtful. Amendments were subjective. Their value depended on the choice of behavioral strategies of the district and regional authorities. The size of the officially approved gross product did not depend on the real barn weight but on the political situation. At the same time, the basic indicator of its determination was growing yield, based on which grain procurement plans were approved. A higher degree of reliability of the accounting system should have been provided by Central and Regional State Commissions for Yield Accounting created in 1933. Central State Commission developed and applied methods of calculating the “optimal yield” (yield minus inevitable losses), “optimal economic yield” (excluding technically inevitable losses), “actual yield” (taking into account losses used on the farm). Amount of the losses was accounted during random inspections of farms. Despite the reforms, yield estimation remained politically driven. Harvest statistics were still largely propagandistic and mobilizing in nature. In 1937 state commissions were liquidated, and the national economic accounting services inherited the task of yield calculating. In 1939 procedure of harvest calculating was once again revised. Accounting average yield contained all losses, including those unused on the farm.

Brief Analysis of Statistics in Higher Vocational Colleges

Statistics is subject foundation requisite for students who major in finance and economics. It is also a science about data. With the development of China’s economy, and the role of statistics is gradually recognized by people, which has formed a huge challenge for higher vocational colleges in China. Under the background of big data, enterprises and institutions pay more attention to the statistical data analysis ability and mining ability of candidates when recruiting talents. But in reality, it is often difficult to recruit statistics professionals, because there are very few higher vocational colleges offering pure statistics[1]. From the perspective of discipline system, the relationship between statistics and various disciplines is cross, not a vertical discipline, but a horizontal discipline. Combining computer knowledge to form such as national economic accounting etc[2]. For current statistics teaching work of economics and management majors in higher vocational colleges, it is especially necessary to cultivate students' statistical thinking. However, at present teaching work, there is obvious lag in the teaching of statistics. Based on teaching contents, teaching methods and other aspects, this paper puts forward some suggestions on statistics teaching in higher vocational education to promote the improvement of teaching quality.

Sustainable Development Based on Green GDP Accounting and Cloud Computing: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

Cloud computing is a supercomputing that integrates large-scale and scalable computing, storage, data, applications, and other distributed computing resources for collaborative work in the form of virtualization technology as the basis and the network as the carrier to provide infrastructure, platform, software, and other service’s model. Green GDP (GGDP) is an assessment indicator for regional sustainable development. Hence, the evaluation index on GGDP and greening of the national economic accounting system (SNA) are the hotspots of current ecological and economic studies. In the recent years, Zhejiang’s economy has achieved rapid development, and there are also problems of high input and high consumption of natural resources, thereby restricting its sustainable development. Based on the statistical data of Zhejiang Province during 2000–2017, the GGDP within the sustainable development context is calculated using the system of integrated environmental and economic accounting (SEEA). The results indicated the following: (1) The GGDP accounted for 79.29%–96.78% of Zhejiang's GDP during the study period, which showed volatility upward trend, resulting from the significant environmental protection and conservation of natural resources in the study area. But economic development was heavily dependent on resources, and the local government still strengthened the work of improving resources and environment. (2) The proportion of secondary industry in Zhejiang Province fluctuated downwards during the period of 2000–2017, and the tertiary industry showed a volatility upward trend, which exceeded the proportion of the secondary industry, indicating that Zhejiang Province is from an industry-led economy to a service-oriented economy change. (3) The GGDP of Zhejiang Province accounted for the highest proportion of GDP in 2008, resulting from the result of a combination of relevant national policies and international competitions.

ТЕОРЕТИЧЕСКИЕ И МЕТОДОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ПОДХОДЫ К ИЗМЕРЕНИЮ ЦИФРОВОЙ ЭКОНОМИКИ (Theoretical and Methodological Approaches to Measuring the Digital Economy)

Russian Abstract: Данное исследование посвящено детальному изучению различных мировых подходов к измерению цифровой экономики. Её актуальность вызвана необходимостью измерения получаемых выгод и формирования обновленной методологии подсчёта базовых макроэкономических показателей системы национальных счетов, а также её дальнейший учёт в составе валовой добавленной стоимости и ВВП страны. В рамках исследования был проведён страновой анализ влияния цифровизации экономики на совокупную факторную производительность и экономический рост. Основной вывод для российской статистики сегмента цифровой экономики, который следует из анализа существующего опыта учета цифровой экономики при построении национальных счетов – признание возможностей отражения в национальных счетах только ее некоторых элементов, которые могут быть выделены в соответствии с методологией системы национальных счетов версии 2008 года. English Abstract: This working paper reviews various world approaches to measuring the digital economy. It is necessary to measure obtained benefits and develop an updated methodology for calculating the basic macroeconomic indicators of national economic accounting for the further accounting in the gross value added and GDP of the country. As a part of the study we have conducted a country analysis of the digitalization impact on total factor productivity and economic growth. The main conclusion of the analysis of the existing accounting experience for digital economy in the construction of national economic accounts for the Russian statistics segment of the digital economy, is the recognition of the possibilities to reflect in the national accounts only some of its elements that can be distinguished in accordance with the 2008 national economic accounts methodology version.

Analysis of GDP based on polynomial regression and BP neural network

GDP(Gross Domestic Product) is the important index for measuring economic development. Quantitative analysis and prediction for GDP can regulate the economic development trend and promote steady economic development. In this article, we used Jiangsu province as an example. Firstly, we determined to 19 indexes which could explain GDP potentially by national economic accounting theory, and a quadratic polynomial regression model was used between the GDP and the principal factor. Secondly, in order to efficiently predict the GDP, we established a BP neural network model with excellent parameter taking 19 indexes as independent variable and GDP as dependent variable. Finally, we came to the conclusion about the GDP of Jiangsu province, and some suggestions for development were given.

Exploration on the Evaluation of Guangdong's Marine Ecological Resources Asset Value

Ecological resources as maintenance system components essential human survival environment, due to its special shape has so far failed to incorporated into the national economic accounting system, to avoid unreasonable under accelerate the Marine resource utilization policy leads to the deterioration of the ecological sustainability further excessive development of Marine resources, this article from the perspective of whole ecosystem services function definition of Marine ecological resources assets, Taking Guangdong Ocean as an example to evaluate the value of its ecological resource assets and discuss its importance to sustainable development. The results show that the service value of Marine ecological resources in Guangdong province is 619.541 billion yuan, and the stock value of ecological resources assets is 166543.28 billion yuan. Oceans played a significant role in primary production, accounting for 79.62%, and also played an important role in species diversity, gene resources, disturbance regulation and climate regulation, accounting for 4.63%, 4.00%, 3.93% and 3.18% of the total value of resources, respectively. The regulating effect of Marine ecological resources can not be ignored, and pollution discharge still has a great impact on Marine water quality.

Linking biodiversity into national economic accounting

Biodiversity underpins the supply of ecosystem services essential for well-being and economic development, yet biodiversity loss continues at a substantial rate. Linking biodiversity indicators with national economic accounts provides a means of mainstreaming biodiversity into economic planning and monitoring processes. Here we examine the various strategies for biodiversity indicators to be linked into national economic accounts, specifically the System of Environmental-Economic Accounts Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA EEA) framework. We present what has been achieved in practice, using various case studies from across the world. These case studies demonstrate the potential of economic accounting as an integrating, mainstreaming framework that explicitly considers biodiversity. With the right indicators for the different components of biodiversity and scales of biological organisation, this can directly support more holistic economic planning approaches. This will be a significant step forward from relying on the traditional indicators of national economic accounts to guide national planning. It is also essential if society’s objectives for biodiversity and sustainable development are to be met.

National Forest Ecosystem Inventory System of China: Methodology and Applications

The technical framework of China’s Forest Ecosystem Inventory System (CFEIS) was recently developed based on ecological indicators assessed continuously in the field at forest ecosystem research stations and China’s Forest Resource Inventory (CNFRI) conducted every 5 years. The CFEIS consists of Field Observations (FOs)of ecological indicators and Distributed Valuations (DVs)of forest ecosystem services. The CFEIS can be used with the CNFRI to observe and monitor the ecological status of forests in China. This paper provides a brief review of the CFEIS by introducing its establishment and summarizing its application coupled with the CNFRI. For the FOs, the principles of the monitoring system layout are provided. The Chinese Forest Ecosystem Research Network (CFERN) was set up, which was the largest nationwide network of forest ecological stations in the world. The facilities and equipment were systematically assembled. The national forestry standards were drawn up for describing and measuring the ecological indicators of forest ecosystems, and these standards were used to specify data collection and transmission. For DVs, a distributed measurement method was created, and an indicator system of evaluation was studied and established, with the CNFRI integrated; a series of evaluation formulas and a package of models were also integrated with the DVs. The CFEIS integrated with the CNFRI estimates forest ecosystem services in China and the ecological benefits derived from the Grain for Green program, and a green national economic accounting system will provide an important case for monitoring and inventorying forest ecosystems at a national scale. The CFEIS can provide important experiences for forest ecosystem inventory systems in China and many other parts of the world.